A Look At Key Global Events In The Upcoming Week

Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman recaps the last and looks at the coming week:

It was a very data heavy week but in the end the important macro releases provided little new information as the majority came in close to expectations. That was certainly true for the US ISM and payrolls. Business surveys in the rest of the world were at the margin a touch weaker as well but coming from very elevated levels. Inflation numbers were generally the same concern as before but the surprises were mixed with, for example, higher inflation than expected in the Eurozone but lower than expected in Korea.

As always, the post-payrolls week will be relatively light on macro data releases but of course we are heading for a number of central bank meetings against a background of a gradually deteriorating inflation-growth trade-off. Key will be the ECB on Thursday, though a 25bp hike is fully anticipated after the unwaveringly hawkish comments from a number of ECB officials. At the press conference we do not expect to hear an even more hawkish tone from Trichet. There is a lot of Fed speak with Bernanke and Yellen on schedule, among others, as well as the latest FOMC minutes. In last week’s key Fed speech Bill Dudley continued to sound quite dovish highlighting ample spare capacity in the economy still.

If the ECB and key Fed officials follow their usual stance (hawkish and relatively dovish, respectively), then we may see EUR/$ finally take out important technical resistance in the 1.43 area. We continue to recommend long EUR/$ positions with a target of 1.50. Broader USD weakness may also feed into more CNY strength. Our real broad USD TWI closed the week on another historical record low.

With Brent crude finishing the week close to cycle highs as well, at 118.70, there is certainly more downside risk for the USD but also growing upside risk for inflation. We will continue to look closely at oil price dynamics.

Finally, in the upcoming week there will be quite a bit of UK activity and inflation data, with non-manufacturing and construction PMIs, labour market data, PPI. At the BoE meeting we expect the MPC to stay on hold, though we expect a hike in May.

Monday 4th

Bernanke Speech: Overnight from Monday to Tuesday Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to speak at the Atlanta Fed Conference (7:15pm local time in Atlanta). Fed Presidents Lockhart and Evans will also make speeches.

Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar): Given extremely strong demand growth in Turkey and rising inflationary pressures, CPI will be interesting. We expect a rise to 4.6% yoy from 4.2% in the February. Consensus is looking for 4.4%.

Also Interesting: UK Construction PMI (Mar).

Tuesday 5th

RBA cash rate: We and consensus expect the RBA to keep rates on hold at 4.75%.

Poland central bank meeting: We and consensus expect a 25bp hike to 4.00%.

Global Services PMI/non-manufacturing ISM: In general, we and consensus expect very little change in tertiary sector PMIs globally. Given relatively high readings already and the slight disappointment from the manufacturing PMIs last week, the risks could be skewed slightly to the downside. We expect the US non-manufacturing ISM at 59.0 (consensus 59.5, last 59.7).

FOMC minutes (March 15 meeting): The more upbeat assessment of current economic conditions in the March 15 FOMC statement should also show through in the minutes released this week. The minutes will also be noteworthy for their discussion of the increase in oil prices, which mostly took place between the end of February and the first week of March. Recent discord in public statements between Fed officials suggests members saw different implications for the outlook. Finally, the release may contain a few hints about technical matters, such as whether or not to slow Treasury purchases as QE approaches its end, and how the FOMC plans to structure post-meeting press conferences.

Fed Speakers: Kocherlakota, Lockhart and Plosser are scheduled to speak publicly.

Also Interesting: Philippines CPI (Mar).

Wednesday 6th

UK labour market data (Mar): Given the debate on fiscal tightening in the UK and the uncertainty about the MPC meeting on the following day, the latest snapshot of the UK labour market will likely be important.

UK industrial production (Feb): Given the proximity to the MPC meeting, this will be important as well. GS expects manufacturing output to rise by +0.6% mom, in line with consensus.

German manufacturing orders (Feb): We expect a rise by +0.3% mom (consensus +0.5% mom).
Also Interesting: Spain Industrial Production (Feb), Swiss CPI, Taiwan CPI.

Thursday 7th

BOJ Meeting: No change in the policy rate is expected. The market will likely look out for additional responses to the earthquake.

UK MPC meeting: Consensus expects unchanged rates. We agree but still think the MPC will hike rates at the May meeting, though it remains a close call and the incoming data until then will be very important.

ECB meeting: We and consensus expect a hike by 25bp to 1.25%. The degree of hawkishness by President Trichet at the following press conference will be key, though we don’t expect anything that deviates notably from what is currently priced in rates markets.

German industrial production (Feb): GS expects a moderate rise of +0.2% mom, below consensus at +0.5% mom.

US jobless claims: Consensus expects a tiny drop to 385k from 388k.

Also Interesting: Norway industrial production (Feb, GS +0.7% mom).

Friday 8th

Swiss labour market data (Mar): Given the strong Swiss Franc, it will be interesting to see the economy resist well. We expect a further decline in the unemployment rate to 3.3% from 3.4%.

UK PPI (Mar): More UK inflation data to help assess the likely trajectory of monetary policy. We expect core PPI to rise by 0.4% mom (consensus +0.3%).

Chile CPI (Mar): We expect a significant sequential acceleration in Chilean inflation from +0.2% mom to +0.85% mom. Consensus expects +0.8% mom.

Also Interesting: Sweden industrial production (Feb), Canada labour market data, Eurozone and EU Finance Ministers meet in Budapest.

Saturday 9th

Fed speech: Fed Vice Chairman Yellen is scheduled to speak to Yale economists on the crisis

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asdasmos's picture

Bernanke: "Inflation.... Who me? No, no, Ipad 3 will be even cheaper!"

SparkyvonBellagio's picture

Will we be so lucky to hear of the passing of all these Financial Raping Criminals?

Cleanclog's picture

And US now working to ease Ali Abdullah Saleh out of Presidency in Yemen.  To what lengths will we go and what will Saudi Arabia do? 

knukles's picture

Does that count as a Quantitative, Qualitative or an Abdullahtative Easing?

Nero's picture

Sorry off topic, but I need a quick answer.

In Canada can I sell 1 ounce of Gold without a paper trail?


CPL's picture

Use a casino to "exchange" it or a payday loan or a local pawn shop.  You won't get spot price, but it's pretty close.

Nero's picture

Thanks, this was what I was told

Reality is no dealer in gold or gold coins will buy any "in case" unless they comply with FINTRAC regulations, even if theoretically they don't have too.

Most gold bullion requires a purchase certificate normally issued through the Bank of Nova Scotia (who for some reason has dealt in gold and is the depositor of record for eons). You have a difficult time selling gold without that certificate of purchase.

GoinFawr's picture


"..each one of these is a 'life'; a life you helped destroy..."

Hope you're not looking for a fence.

BORT's picture

Gas in my city in Michigan just went to 3.89/gallon.  Don't you just want to see who is saying there is no inflation?  10% more to $4.00 on the National average.

SilverRhino's picture

Ya think?   Rice and wheat comodities buys in 2011 are the no brainers of the century.

thexcount's picture

Something to keep an eye on is the highly contagious "Negative AIDS" disease that has appeared in China.  It could literally wipe out half the world's population within 2-5 years...


BORT's picture

All we need is one more problem. 

knukles's picture

It just dawned on me.... What with the useless state of the MSM today, no content whatsoever worth spending time with...  Why not start a new news channel called the Conspiracy Channel?  And do just what it suggests.  Realize that over the last 5 to 10 years, it would have been more entertaining and predictively accurate than just about any other source?  And what with the state of the world today, probably'd get a damned good audience to boot.

Oh regional Indian's picture

This is an intense week. All this NUMBer talk talk is one thing.

Meanwhile, screaming disaster headline fatigue has set in, which might have been th eintention. India just had a Cricket World cup and not a mention made of Japan or this thing that is be-falling all of us. 

The middle east has simmered much louder than int he past few weeks, 10's of thousands on th estreets in Sanaa and other places. And yet, with Fukushima grabbing top billing, it's been back-grounded. Watch it come screaming back. US assets are being re-deployed, they are losing the plot in Libya, which means escalation....

Europe will give a money-shock, as Ireland meekly accepts another banker forced bail-out. Something will give there. Sooner rather than later. Just like a rising tide floats all boats, a falling tide grounds them. 

No good outcomes. I hope most here are materially out of the "market casino", all those winner's bells are just to pull the fools in.

Hard money, hard decisions....



j.darkness's picture

ORI, I had this thought the other day and it reminded me of you!  Maybe the end of the mayan calander is a cosmic pun for the end of the age of maya.  All the illusions of comfort and order that we cling to are crumbling around us.  soon many will realize we are naked and alone in a hostile world!  thanks, as always for your insights -j.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Ahhha j.D, very interesting. never made that connect myself.
Maya-n end time. I like it and you are welcome!

dogismyth's picture

the best analysis of the "end of times" and correlation to mayan and hopi prophecy, and it is much more realistic and verifiable than the trash you read elsewhere.  Study it closely.  I think they're on to something here, and I think the PTB certainly know much more....thus the distractions on a regular basis.



nah's picture

nuclear monetary war oil



Careless Whisper's picture

NEW YORK (AP) — A Wall Street hedge fund manager accused in the biggest insider trading case in history bragged on a 2008 conference call about making a massive illegal trade only moments before the market closed, according to prosecutors who played a tape of the call Wednesday at his trial.

Speaking to three of his employees, Raj Rajaratman called it a "big drama" — one that prosecutors say began with an inside tip from a Goldman Sachs board member right after the board agreed to accept a blockbuster offer from Warren Buffet to pump $5 billion into the struggling investment bank.


Will there be any witnesses from GoldmanSachs at the Raj criminal insider trading trial next week?

knukles's picture

Heard tell that there's gonna be a representative, dude's an 88 y/o retired deaf, dumb, mute, blind janitorial assistant who was on the 3rd sub-basement swing shift.  They're planning on having him plead on a lesser charge of manic masturbatory events, will be sentenced to spend 3 weekends handing out towels in the lady's room at Smith & Wollenski's and placed on inconsequential non-supervisory all expenses paid probation in a Miami Beach co-op owned by Goldman.

All other charges will be dropped and case summarily dismissed.    

j.darkness's picture

Does anyone know anything credible about the possible revaluation of the iraqi dinar?

Dan The Man's picture

My God...what is going on down there?

Declaring 2010 "the best year in safety performance in our company's history," the owner of the Gulf of Mexico rig that exploded has given its execs bonuses. 

"Notwithstanding the tragic loss of life in the Gulf of Mexico, we achieved an exemplary statistical safety record as measured by our total recordable incident rate and total potential severity rate," the SEC statement reads. "As measured by these standards, we recorded the best year in safety performance in our Company's history."

TJWP's picture

Thanks Tyler, always go here first for my weekly macro prep.