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A Look At The Known Economic Events In The Upcoming Week

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While nobody has any idea just what lies in store in the coming week which is expected to be abnormally volatile, here is a summary of the key economic events from Goldman's FX desk.

It all came at once last week with the major drivers of market price action rolling across the newswires on Friday. Front, back and centre stage was dominated by the still unfolding tragedy in Japan.  First and foremost our thoughts are with those affected by the situation.  In terms of asset markets, it is tough to draw concrete conclusions until we have a greater handle on the monetary cost of the disaster which is likely to run into trillions of Yen. There are also many potentially offsetting economic forces at work after a natural disaster, which we will try to assess in coming days and weeks.
The Eurozone summit arguably produced a positive surprise in that steps have been taken to a final political deal at the European council meeting of 24/25 March. Ahead of the summit, there was widespread sceptism that any news would emerge. As Francesco Garzarelli et al point out, other encouraging incremental steps at this stage include (i) more generous bi-lateral lending terms for Greece; (ii) a (yet-to-be-clarified) statement about upsizing the EFSF’s effective lending capacity to the full EUR 440bn; and (iii) the decision to allow the latter (and its successor, the ESM) to intervene directly in primary government debt markets, but ‘as an exception’ and only in countries part of a conditional assistance program. Less encouraging is the fact that the progress on a broader governance structure seems patchy. Broadly we conclude that the announcements on Friday should be marginally positive for EMU sovereign risk premia and therefore positive for the Euro.
With everything else that was going on, Saudi Arabia’s ‘day of rage’ drew little remark, neither did the ongoing fighting in Libya. Clearly developments in the Middle East will need to be monitored, but for the time being, oil prices (Brent) appear to have stabilised.

The week ahead will continue to focus on developments in Japan and the Middle East and any further political commentary associated with the European summit. The BoJ has shortened its monetary policy meeting to one day on Monday. In addition to pledges to provide ongoing liquidity and the maintenance of financial stability, the BoJ may decide to extend the QE proposals from September in order to shore up confidence.

There will be several monetary policy meetings this week, including by the BoJ, Fed, RBI, Norges Bank and SNB.  We expect the Fed to provide little new news, and for all other central banks to remain on hold except the RBI, where we expect a 25bps hike.
 
Monday 14 March

BoJ meeting – rates unchanged. In response to the natural disaster, the BOJ has signaled a strong commitment to supply ample funds to the short-term financial markets and is working with banks and other financial institutions to ensure a smooth response to potential withdrawals by depositors. The BOJ has also decided to shorten its next monetary policy meeting, scheduled for March 14-15, to a half day on the afternoon of the 14th.
China Money and credit growth: We and consensus expect M2 growth to be up 17%yoy, after 17.2% on the previous reading. We expect the amount of CNY loans made in February to be around RMB700b, down from RMB1.04trn in January. Consensus expects a smaller figure of RMB600bn.
India WPI (Feb): We forecast February WPI inflation to come in at 7.8%yoy, lower than the 8.2%yoy in January, mainly due to a fall in the prices of primary articles, especially fruits and vegetables. The consensus is also at 7.8%yoy.
Eurozone Industrial Production (Jan). Consensus expects a rise of 6.5%yoy after 8.8% previously
 
Tuesday 15 March
Philippines Remitances (Jan): Overseas remittance grew 8.1%yoy in December, after increasing 10.5%yoy in November.
US Empire survey (Mar). Consensus expects a rise to 16.10 from 15.7.
US TIC data (Jan): Given the focus on EM to DM rotation in the equity markets that month, it will be interesting to see how strong foreign buying of US equity is and also the extent to which US investors brought money home.
FOMC meeting: Unchanged rates are universally expected. The committee is unlikely to want to tighten financial conditions much with its Tuesday statement. The FOMC will likely acknowledge better news on employment, and perhaps also the recent uptick in longer-term inflation expectations, but we expect no changes to the forward-looking guidance on interest rates or asset purchases.
Brazil Retail Sales (Jan). Consensus expects a rise of 8.0%yoy, after 10.1% previously.
Also Interesting: RBA minutes, Polish CPI
 
Wednesday 16 March

Norges Bank meeting: Rates are expected to remain unchanged.
US PPI (Feb):  We are in line with consensus, expecting a rise of 0.6%mom on the headline reading and 0.2% ex food and energy, after 0.8 and 0.5% respectively on the previous reading.
US Current Account Balance (Q4): We expect a current account deficit of USD110bn, as does the consensus.  We will be inspecting the BBoP to discover the degree to which the current account was financed with longer-term capital inflows.
 
Thursday 17 March

New Zealand ANZ-Roy Morgan  Consumer confidence for March is likely to give an indication as to the extent the Christchurch earthquake has continued to dent confidence.  The last reading was 108.1, which represented a large drop on the January reading of 117.1.
Singapore non oil exports (Feb): Consensus expects a reading of 10.8%yoy after 20.9% previously.
RBI meeting: We and the consensus expect a 25bp hike bringing the repo rate to 6.75% and an equivalent hike on the reverse repo rate bringing the latter to 5.75%.
SNB meeting: rates are expected to remain unchanged.  The question will be how hawkish will the bank sound given the strength of activity in Switzerland and that inflation is tracking roughly in line with the SNB’s forecast vs the continued strength of the currency. The recent hawkishness of the ECB is likely to feature in the SNB’s thinking.
US CPI (Feb): We and the consensus expect a rise of 0.4%mom on headline due to rising commodity prices and a rise of 0.1% on core.  Higher energy prices are likely to push headline up notably.
US Industrial Production (Feb): Consensus expects a rise of 0.6%mom after a decline of 0.1% previously.  We expect a rise of 0.7%.
US Philadelphia Fed Survey (Mar): Consensus expects a fall to 29.7 from 35.9 previously, which would represent a correction on the previous very strong reading.  We expect a reading of 31.0.
US Unemployment Claims: After last week’s sharp rise in the weekly claims data, it will be interesting to see if this deterioration was temporary.
 
Friday 18 March

Canada consumer prices (Feb): Consensus expects a rise of 0.4%mom up from 0.3% on the headline reading. Core is also expected to rise by 0.4% from flat previously.
Chile GDP (Q4): We expect a rise of 5.6%yoy after 7.2% previously. In line with consensus. Also Interesting: Mexico Central Bank Policy Minutes.

 

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Sun, 03/13/2011 - 15:42 | 1046991 Mongo
Mongo's picture

Every known stock exchange in the world will drop 4-5% while the Bernankelized DJIA will go higher

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 16:04 | 1047040 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Figure about +500 this week to cover the uncertainty.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 20:26 | 1047691 saulysw
saulysw's picture

Bingo on the Nikkei

 


March 14 | Sun Mar 13, 2011 8:11pm EDT

March 14 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average extended losses and fell 3.9 percent to 9,851.06 in early trade on Monday as the market gauges the effects of last week's earthquake and tsunami. (Reporting by Antoni Slodkowski)

But the ASX is not down that much... 

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 15:53 | 1047010 sulfur
sulfur's picture

 

Insurance claims following Japan's offshore earthquake could hit US$35billion, according to initial estimates.

That's more than the entire global catastrophe loss for the insurance industry in 2010.

What's more - risk modelling company AIR, who came up with the figures, said that amount doesn't includethe effects of the tsunami that followed the quake, or any potential losses from nuclear damage.

 

aljazeera

 

dont think japanese markets will drop that much boj is giving out 24 billion dollars monday and tuesday

 

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 16:07 | 1047046 Muir
Muir's picture

"US$35billion, according to initial estimates"

 

I'd add a 0.

-

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 15:51 | 1047011 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Goldman shud add the fact that these "marginally positive" steps in EMU-ponzi scheme are "marginally positive" for the BANKSTERS and negative for everyone else. The marginal rate of rape of the tax payers never gets into these little pieces of crap they write.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 15:57 | 1047024 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

India going down  hard again should be another event

 

http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 15:58 | 1047027 Tulli
Tulli's picture

imo Monday is a wildcard, but as the week progresses, markets all over, including Ben's Bubble will continue retracing. This will likely go on for another couple of weeks untill the interventionists decide it is enough another ride kicks in again.

Meanwhile, let's pray for the Blessings of God to help the Japanese People. A miracle is needed there to contain those nuclear facilities. May God help them.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 16:03 | 1047032 falak pema
falak pema's picture

One company's whose stock will move is Toshiba-Westinghouse in the months to come. Unless it gets big rebuild contracts in this aftermath.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 17:29 | 1047216 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

And GE-Hitachi-san.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 17:29 | 1047222 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

And GE-Hitachi-san.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 16:06 | 1047043 cossack55
cossack55's picture

"our thoughts are with those affected" as in how to fleece the survivors. "We are doing God's work." I assume he meant Kali, though I think she is a goddess. Why wasn't the ANON BoA dump on monday mentioned?

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 16:09 | 1047049 jlafleur02
jlafleur02's picture

Do you think japan will sell UST to raise money? They are going to need a lot. Entire towns have vanished.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 16:30 | 1047085 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

They'll monetize billions. The dollar will go up but the question remains for the us assets in japan and the funds and companies linked to them. There will be a lot of manupilation tomorrow so all we can do is sit back and watch the gangster do their thing...

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 16:25 | 1047072 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I really do think monday will be hell for banks as bac will drop through the ground. Also the fact that kadafi is regaining ground is setting fears he'll retaliate against the west for supporting the rebels. Another thing will be the flight of japanese money into europe and the us so both cuurencies will go up as will gold and silver.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 19:33 | 1047550 Orly
Orly's picture

I would imagine that the repatriation of Japanese off-shore accounts will strengthen the yen against the Euro, as their overt manipulation of the Euro through bond buys will have to be severely curtailed.  It wouldn't surprise me to see EURJPY fall through the floor.

It is going to be up to Benny and the Boyz to help stabilise the Japanese export economy, so expect the yen to fall heavily against the US dollar.

There will be much machination going on...

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 16:30 | 1047079 paladin
paladin's picture

will the Nikkei open on Monday?

 

 TOKYO (Nikkei)--A broad sell-off swept the Tokyo stock market in the minutes following Friday afternoon's devastating earthquake, with shares ...

 Treasurys Lower On Japanese Selling After Massive Quake

Nikkei.....10,254.43    

-179.95 ( - 1.72%) Friday

 

http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/marketlive.aspx

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 16:29 | 1047081 Showa50
Showa50's picture

Remember POMO resumes Monday. Hooray!

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 16:34 | 1047097 paladin
paladin's picture

Yen Rallies On Repatriation Expectations

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The yen surged against other major currencies after a devastating earthquake set off expectations that firms will repatriate yen to help pay for rebuilding efforts.

 

http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/marketlive.aspx

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 16:50 | 1047128 DNB-sore
DNB-sore's picture

How much ports are "out" meaning a possible collapse of distributing important technical parts for our world economy?

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 19:41 | 1047572 Orly
Orly's picture

They seem have to have missed the important step before rebuilding Japan: they have to tear it all down first.

Just insane.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 16:57 | 1047137 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Does anyone know if Jeff Immelt will be guest host on Squawk Box tomorrow?

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 17:00 | 1047143 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Puts on toyota and Sony

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 19:42 | 1047575 Orly
Orly's picture

As a reminder, most of Toyota's manufacturing is done off the islands...

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 17:16 | 1047173 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Joint External Debt Hub (JEDH) has not been updated

http://www.jedh.org/

Joint BIS-IMF-OECD-World Bank statistics on external debt

The BIS banking and securities market statistics are an important element in the Joint BIS-IMF-OECD-World Bank statistics on external debt. These include quarterly data from creditor and market sources available from the four participating international organisations. Although the joint statistics do not provide a fully comprehensive and consistent measure of total external debt in each country, they bring together timely and international comparative data in this area. They also provide a breakdown by instrument and, importantly, show measures of short-term debt not easily available from other sources.

The data are available from a joint website in the format of tables and an online database. The four international organisations have improved the debt statistics, which are provided, together with external debt data published by national sources, through an electronic joint external debt hub (JEDH). 

http://www.bis.org/publ/r_debt.htm

Inflationary pressures discussed in the latest BIS Quarterly Review --14 March 2011

http://www.bis.org/press/p110314.htm

oh oh spaghettio's

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 17:30 | 1047226 ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

Poor Japan -ever more debt in ever increasing numbers. 

The EU - Piigs debt addressed by adding debt to debt in the form of traunches. 

The US - $70 billion left to spend until new debt level needed.  

At what point does global debt just collapse in on itself? 

On a long enough time scale, extend & pretend crosses over into collapse and reality. 

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 19:56 | 1047606 George Huxley
George Huxley's picture

I wanted to 'like' this but then I realized zerohedge isn't facebook.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 23:39 | 1048716 Orly
Orly's picture

That was funny.

Thanks for the giggle.

:D

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 17:43 | 1047275 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Timmah, sorry old bean but we can't buy any of your junk paper for a while. We got some major problems over here and we don't have any excess cash....

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 18:17 | 1047380 paladin
paladin's picture

high plains drifter

 

this is what I was thinking

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 20:41 | 1047748 crzyhun
crzyhun's picture

This will test everyones' chopsticks. Most of the intelligentia seems to think this is a 'good thing' for the Japandes GDP. Right, let's have a tsumani in Europe then here and after in China because then the Global GDP will rise. Such fools these ecomonists are including Ben.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 20:46 | 1047787 trendybull459
trendybull459's picture

We need your help,come to us and make your voting(it takes 5sec from you):

http://trendybull777.blog.com/2011/02/21/hello-world/

tell it to friend,we need to rich every interesting one to make his vote for FED existence,thank you to all for your choice

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 23:36 | 1048689 squexx
squexx's picture

Shame the quake hit Japan instead of Israel!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!