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A Look At The Upcoming Calendar As The Sleepiest Week Of The Year Arrives
The upcoming week will be largely one where absolutely nothing happens. Anemic volumes will continue to be anemic, outflows will continue, and nobody will care about news flow or technicals. That said, here is Goldman's analysis of the few items that actually may matter globally in the upcoming 7 days.
What Matters in FX Next Week: Getting Ready for the Holidays
On the policy front, the US Senate voted for the bipartisan fiscal package late in the week and the European summit established a stabilization mechanism (ESM) for crises past 2013 to replace the temporary EFSF. An unexpected and positive development was the agreement for the ECB to raise its capital in order to reign in potential challenges from volatility in its asset (or collateral) portfolio. Finally, on the data front we had a positive surprises from the Philly Fed survey and the IFO posted new record highs with future expectations trending strongly to the upside and confidence in the German retail sector hovering at levels not seen since the early nineties.
In terms of our views, as we have forewarned, we have revised our US growth forecasts on the back of the US fiscal package. We now expect real GDP to rise by 3.4% in 2011 and 3.8% in 2012 (up from 2.7% and 3.6% respectively). It is hard to gauge where consensus exactly lies in terms of actual numbers as the latest surveys are slightly outdated by now. But we were above consensus in our initial forecasts in early December and it is likely that we remain so. In FX space we have already argued, stronger US growth is reducing a bit of the USD downside potential and we have revised our EUR/$ forecasts in early December to 1.50 in 12 mths time (from 1.55 initially). However, the expected widening balance of payments deficit continues to justify a bearish Dollar path and after the latest forecast round perhaps even so against economies with large exposure to the US like Canada or Mexico.
The week ahead will be a quiet one as the market gears down for the holidays. The most important release systemically will be the Durable Goods Orders on Thursday; we expect a small decline of 1%mom. We will also get the third estimate of US GDP on Wednesday. Also interesting to watch will be the MPC meetings in CEE3 economies.
Monday 20th
Hungary Monetary Policy After last month’s surprise hike from the NBH to deter capital outflows another hike is not unlikely but it is a very close call.
Wednesday 22nd
US GDP Third Estimate We expect the third estimate for Q3 GDP to come in around 2.5%qoq annualized. This is not far from consensus of 2.8%.
UK Minutes of the MPC Meeting The Committee has been criticised in some quarters for taking its eye off rising inflationary pressures. The November Inflation Report still has a central forecast that shows inflation comfortably below target in 2012. The MPC may see next week’s minutes as an opportunity to reassure people that it hasn’t forgotten its primary objective.
Poland Monetary Policy Meeting No change in monetary policy stance. Latest inflation data has been mixed. We do not expect hikes until Q1 2010.
Czech Monetary Policy Meeting We do not anticipate a change in monetary policy.
Thursday 23rd
US Durable Goods Orders We expect a small decline of 1% mom vs consensus of -0.7% mom.
US New Home Sales Housing Data is key to follow as it is an area of risk for US growth ahead. We expect a 4% mom rebound in new home sales relative to -8.1 before vs consensus expectations of 6%.
Friday 24th
Russia Monetary Policy Meeting We expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged in the December meeting.
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Next week: the banruptcy of the world.
http://unconstitutional.blogspot.com
Yet another site echoing the dogma of the environmentalism religion.
I suggest you put your own ideas into practice, and give up using electricity "greedily" especially computers and the Internet.
:)
I too choose not to serve as an acolyte of the gaia cult. However, I will go long farmland as long as we subsidize the burning of food.
I eagerly await the Christmas Eve surprise from either the FED, Treasurey, or Obama. A Billion dollar gift to bail comeone out. I wonder who.
I sure do. I think about Derek Zoolander mining for coal every time I turn the lights off or put my computer to sleep.
didn't we have that already 5 times this year? that's getting boring...
Club of Rome, circa 1970 lives on I see. Sigh........
Looks like the mass arrest of present and past executives of Countrywide and Bank of America by various State and Federal law enforcement agencies is postponed until after the holidays.
LOL!!
http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/ might be enemic vol. but there is enough econ releases to move the fx markets. w/low volume come hyper-active moves
The upper ratio is what I jokingly call the Holy Grail. It is showing a high risk of at least a 3 to 5 day decline.
It is one of my systems, it forces me into a short position.
Now has anyone been paying attention to what this Holy Grail Is? Check it out, I wish I had 40 years of data on this, as 2 years of data can mislead, especially since this has been an very curious 2 years in the markets.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/12/holy-grail-and-fear-factor.html#...
Funny that 33rd liberty streets Operation Schedule, is strangely omitted from the Calendar.....
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
December 20, 20103 December 21, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 12/31/2014 – 5/31/2016
$6 – $8 billion
December 21, 2010 December 22, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 6/30/2016 – 11/30/2017
$7 – $9 billion
December 21, 20103 December 22, 2010 Outright TIPS Purchase 7/15/2012 – 2/15/2040 $1 – $2 billion
December 22, 2010 December 23, 2010 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 2/15/2021 – 11/15/2027
$1.5– $2.5 billion
3*This operation is tentatively scheduled to begin around 1:15 PM and close at 2:00 PM
Cramer advocated buying gold on Friday...and yet ZeroHedge considers vol. to remain weak, sigh.
If you have NONE, get it.
$1,370's is cheap compared to where its headed, in the next 12-36mos.
Maybe if we're lucky, there will be a Nice $50/$100.00 dip next week.
Some of the longs will wait till the last minute to sell.And, the bears may attack.
Dec. 23... 1 year anniversary of the government announcing late in the day of a total backstop of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
I wonder what our government has in store for us this year.
Exactly.
Wrong.
The upcoming week will be largely one where everything happens.
Witness the creation of the Federal Reserve on December 24, 1913.
Not to worry, the stock index futures will rise overnight as usual, the SPY will gap up on the opens and everyone will cheer the new highs.
Why are we forgetting that banks are still being closed? http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
Sleepy.. until the Korean peninsula explodes into full chaos.
I fucking hope not! I live about an hour by boat away from that damn place! Meanwhile, Koreans are very ho-hum about the whole damn thing!
It'd be funny to see a real black swan event and watch the market crash this week.
(d)
Perfect setup for the robobastards.
JPM Wave 3 down
Well that's just awful! Guess me and henry will have to go play with the snow to pass time.
http://i.imgur.com/uYeb1.gif
(d)
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How is Martin A. Armstrong keeping it together? What the amerikan guberment has done to him is...ghastly.
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Saving%20the%20Day%20After%20Tomorr...
This week might just be one of the better trade weeks. Machines programmed to slide between 123.68 to 124.75. A little bit of war scare to hike the USD tomorrow AM and get us on the low end of the range and get the game going....POMO comes in to save the day mid-morning. wash rinse repeat lvs, fcx tna/tza
Oh look the futures are up as usual, gap up on the open for SPY, as usual.
Half-expect the unexpected.
Sleepy-time zombies too busy roaming the malls in search of the next great do-dad often take no notice of the outside world during this time of year.. which is precisely why anyone with a working brain stem SHOULD be watching closely.
Watch the left hand closely, now, whilst you get bitch-slapped with the right one.