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A Look At The Week Ahead: Little Economic Data With All Eyes On The Libyan Revolution
Via Goldman Sachs
Week In Review
It is tough to put a finger on one key theme in FX markets last week with many items on the radar screen – from inflation, to the EM/DM rotation, to the Middle East, to wider European Peripheral spreads. While Chinese inflationary pressures were lower than anticipated in January, year-on-year inflation in January was still higher than in December and the Chinese authorities opted to tackle the problem through a resumption of CNY appreciation, measures to cool the property market in Beijing and finishing the week off with a 50bps RRR hike. The EM/DM rotation remains a focus of attention, arguably the resumption of foreign buying of Asian equity through last week suggests that this theme may be starting to play itself out. It will be interesting to see if the Chinese RRR hike changes this tentative trend.
US CPI was stickier than expected, however this was trumped by a weaker than expected claims report and the US rates market rallied, pushing the Dollar weaker. As Jan Hatzius highlighted in the latest US Economics Analyst, a bit more inflation means a closer call on the Fed. Elevated inflation also remains a focus of attention in the UK, helping to strengthen the Pound.
The G20 statement released on Saturday didn’t offer any particularly surprises or concrete initiatives as expected, however progress is being made towards resolving global imbalances. The G20 agreed on a set of indicators that will focus on persistently large imbalances which require policy actions and by the April meeting, the aim is to have an indicative set of guidelines against which these indictors will be assessed, taking into account various national or regional circumstances. The external balance that will be assessed is the trade balance, net investment income flows and transfers. The statement also notes that the international monetary system needs to improve to promote orderly adjustment, avoid disruptive fluctuations in capital flows, disorderly movements and persistent misalignment of exchange rates.
Week Ahead
The week ahead is light on data releases with probably the key prints at the start and the end of the week. On Monday, the focus will be on the flash PMIs out of Euroland and the German IFO. On Friday we will pick apart the Korea balance of payments to discover the BBoP position in light of the foreign selling of Korean assets through January. Japanese CPI will be important in light of our Japan-related top trades and the US Q4 GDP print will be watched for revisions.
Otherwise, attention will continue to be paid to the DM/EM rotation theme, the events in the Middle East and the European Sovereign issue.
Monday 21st February
Thailand GDP (Q4): We expect 4Q2010 GDP to grow 4.0% yoy, down from the 6.7% yoy rise in 3Q2010. This would imply an annualized qoq growth of 4.9%, after two quarters of qoq contraction. Consensus expects a rise of 4.1%yoy
Taiwan export orders (Jan): The sequential momentum is likely to remain strong in January. Consensus expects a rise of 17.95% after 15.3%yoy previously.
Malaysia CPI (Jan): Consensus expects a rise of 2.4% after 2.2% previously.
Euroland flash PMIs (Feb): Consensus expects the manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged at 57.3, as do we and the service PMI to rise from 55.to 56.3. We expect 56.2 on the latter.
German IFO (Feb): Consensus expects110.5 after 110.3, which would be yet another record high. We expect a slight easing to 110.
Mexico GDP (Q4): Consensus expects 3.2% after 5.3% previously.
Tuesday 22nd February
US Consumer Confidence (Feb): We expect a rise to 63.0 from 60.6 previously. The Consensus expects 64.
Wednesday 23 February
Taiwan Industrial Production (Jan): Previous was 18.2%yoy.
Hong Kong GDP (Q4): We expect 4Q2010 GDP to grow 5.2% yoy, down from the 6.8% yoy rise in 3Q2010. This would imply sequential growth of 3.4% qoq, ann. Consensus expects a rise of 5.3%.
Singapore CPI (Jan): We expect a similar month-on-month rise to that in December which was 0.9%mom. The last year-on-year reading was 4.6%. Consensus expects a rise of 4.4%yoy.
Bank of England Minutes: The minutes are unlikely to give much new information after the Inflation Report last week. The vote is likely to remain a three way split.
Thursday 24th February
US Durable Goods Orders (Jan): We expect a reading of 4% after -2.5% on the past report. Consensus expects 3.0%.
US jobless claims.
Friday 25th February.
Korean Balance of Payments (Jan). We will be paying close attention to the BBoP given the foreign selling of Korean assets through January. The previous current account surplus was $2114mn.
Japanese CPI (Jan): Consensus expects -0.1%yoy after flat previously.
Singapore IP (Jan): Consensus expects a rise of 6.9%yoy. Previous print was 9.0%yoy.
UK GDP (Q4 P): The consensus expects an unchanged print from the initial -0.5%qoq reading, which was much weaker than expected.
German CPI (Feb): Previous print was 2.0%yoy.
US GDP (Q4 A): Consensus expects an upwards revision to 3.3% from 3.2%. We expect a decline to 3.0%.
US Uni. Mich Survey (Feb): Consensus expects a revision from 75.4 from 75.3.
Irish General Election: Polls suggest that the Fianna Fail-led government will be replaced by a Fine Gael/Labour coalition.
Italy: BTP auction. A reopening of BTP Nov13/Sep21.
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Just heard on CNN first hand report from Libyan protester in Benghazi;
The protesters have captured a military facility and confiscated many guns and other weapons.
Benghazi is FREE! On to Tripoli for the the kill!
You won't see this on the zionist controlled US MSM.
PEOPLE ARE PISSED OFF! G20 Protests Paris. Berlin. London
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q93Z0x64qNw
Lots of videos of the action here; G20 protests: 'I don't know who is being protected here'
G20 protests: A street-level view of the peaceful gathering that erupted into violence
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2009/apr/02/g20-protest
fox news has been reporting that gaddafis son was the source of report re takeover of military bases and some tanks
they are showing unconfirmed amateur street video
I guess America should never have retired those F111s
www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OWlEDzjk2s
Michael, have you seen Gadfly Gaddafi's Amazon Gurad Troop?
I think he is far from done. he knows something. Otherwise, Megrahi release? Clinton's strange little missile attacks...
Citizen;s with boiling blood and guns against a well trained army?
Armed resistance has to be organized. Or it is lambs to the slaughter. The Libyan Army now has the right to fire live.
Not good.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/02/16/truth-about-america-truth-about-us/
Good thing the American people are armed to the teeth for when it's our time we will be able to take out thousands of USA police state thugs.
Take a look at what we are up against;
Illuminati vid #88 G20 Protest Assult and Police Brutality with WeAreChange
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDrBXf5KseM
Seems like being Americas friend is a bad move - All of these countries were part of the 'coalition of the willing' in the war on terror weren't they?
What do we think the odds are for Saudi Arabia to be on the regime changing list?
Bolivia is heating up. protests are spreading..
http://nakedempire.wordpress.com/
"I think he is far from done."
The rumour today is that he has fled, maybe he hasn't got enough troops who are willing to shoot the protestors?
Thank you for the report and the centralized Asian econ calendar. Much appreciated!
This week the Cdu poll numbers in germany light rock the boat because Merkel might get canned.
Marokko roits are more important then the libian as marokko is the gateway to europe and à important ally to the EU
UK inflation and EU inflation Will Trigger à rate hike and Will cause fears on The employment
First signs of protest about pay freezes are expected in europe as inflation pucks up fast but salaries Will be frozen for the next 2 years.
Oil at The pump costs now as much as it did in 2007 in THE EU.
Looking at the march WTI contracts S.D. Definitely looks like it wants to run back up. The shorter term charts are suggesting a bounce. I have a 86.10 handle on the friday close. Looks a bit H and S'ish. If it weren't for that big bear candle trying to find a neckline on the hourly. it's just hammers bouncing back and forth. But the m-15 and m-30 suggest a bounce short term. The RSI and oversold moving averages fit that idea short term.
From a contact in country today:
Armed civilians are setting up checkpoints on roads in suburbs of Tripoli.
Wonder where the POMO money will go? I would almost think that people would be scaling out of Nasdq because of the concerns over Jobs Health reflecting on Aapl stock which could cause money to be moved out of Nasdq into somewhere else.
Will the money go into Gold, Copper, Steel, Aluminum? Will it go to the Bank stocks? Bonds, Dollars? Hmmm? Where will it go?
Q: Where will the money go?
A: POMOS = BTFD/Ramp = shares, any old Fshares
porr old gadafi, all those years out in the wilderness, finally some oil contracts to get rich on and the sad old dictator is gonna be hoisted up a lampost.
well one can only hope
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8a3T5IgFVcs
This site has excellent coverage of protests across Middle East.
Latest rumour is Gaddafi offski
http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2011/2/20/libya-bahrain-and-beyond-l...
Also
http://www.libyafeb17.com/
Elvis has left the building?
Stratfor says so also.
An unconfirmed report from Saudi-owned Al Arabiya claimed Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi fled the country Feb. 20. Qatar-based Al Jazeera has meanwhile quoted Libyan Ambassador to China Hussein Sadiq al-Musrati, who resigned Feb. 20, as claiming there had been a gunfight between Gadhafi’s feuding sons and that Gadhafi may have left Libya. Al Jazeera has also claimed that the al-Zuwayya tribe in the east, and the al-Tabu and Warfalah tribes in the south have turned on Gadhafi
Khadaffi in Venezuela?? Wow the flying camel. I hope he's patented it!
Finally a chance to take out all of these U.S. puppets.
Daffy needs a patriot among his inner circle to take his head.
Next up , all the rest of the murderous scum.
Maybe even those Saudi pigs get fried.
Now that will be a PARTAY!
Sunday, February 20, 2011 LIBYA IS SLAUGHTERING INNOCENT CIVILIANS, HUNDREDS MASSACREDfrom atlasshrus.com
A reader has written me an urgent email,
I fear Obama will do and say nothing. Back in July of 2008, I posted that Gaddafi had come out and fully endorsed Obama, going so far as to say: "People in Arab And Islamic World, Africa... May Have Been Involved In Legitimate Contribution Campaigns [to Obama]."
In April 2010, the Libyan president Gaddafi praised Obama here: "Barakeh Obama is friend..." "He is of Muslim descent, his policy should be supported...."
After Gaddafi came to New York and spoke at the UN (!) in 2009, he headed to the Libyan mission for more than an hour and was visited by limelight-loving radical Louis Farrakhan. Farrakhan was his only visitor. Farrakhan has a special relationship with Obama's pastor of twenty years, Jeremiah Wright.
Jew-hating firebrand Louis Farrakhan labeled Obama "the hope of the entire world" and compared him to the founder of the Nation of Islam, the group Farrakhan heads (Associated Press, February 25).
Instead, Obama and that collective negation of humanity at the UN is busy condemning the only democracy in the Middle East, Israel, forliving there. The only harsh words Obama has are for our allies. Terrible, and getting worse.
I can support protesters and condemn jewish apartheid at the same time. I even have a large enough attention span to dislike Obama at the same time. I dont think any of us have to stop our criticism of israel in order to support protesters elsewhere, and I certainly dont think of a country that uses us, harms our interests, and turns Pollard into a hero is any kind of ally.
Wow, this is an impressive spin of the events. I thought that zionist media was the most upset with the turn events, especially with the loss of their close friend, Hosni Mubarak. And by the way, once people like Gaddafi are gone, it will be hard for Israel to claim higher moral ground.
And by the way, it is because of the Obama administration that UN resolution condemning Israel did not pas, so that is a pure lie on your part.
So the g20 is calling for changes in persistent misalignment of exchange rates. Does that mean everyone but china is on board with dollar devaluation?
Press TV is reporting up to 300 civilians killed today in Benghazi: http://www.livestation.com/channels/52-press-tv-english
Thanks for the link.
Press Tv just clarified, they said 50 killed in 7hrs, over 300 killed during the uprising (10 days), they also repeated the rumor that M. Gaddafi has left the country. Maybe he didn't want to 'fall' into a coma on his way out like Mubarak did: http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/02/14/137565.html
rumour on wires Nth Kore are preparing for another nuclear test...goggle yonhap news
S*** is getting hotter
oh and US fed gov could shut down re: Obama budget doesn't get through.
...
Dollar
Flight to safety?
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/02/dollar_20.html
lol streess of waking up and having to wipe own ass too much for the old cootes
And in other news - Twitter valued at 10b, Facebook worth more than Ford: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/20/is-this-the-start-of-the-...
What a deal, FarmVille for 9b!
Libya headlines:
Unknown killed and injured over 300 deaths
protesters in control of some major cities and crawling to Tripoli
some units from police and army join protesters
Ghaddafi son said either negotiations or civil war(peeing in his pants)
And one of the biggest oil fields stopped production due to total strike
as umm max heiser opoints out a real farm in russia cant get $1bill, but a virtual farm producing nothing but soma, $8 bill. wait till these people wake up hungry.