Looking Beyond Tomorrow's Non-Farm Payroll Number To Spot A Negative Shift In Structural Unemployment

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Thu, 08/05/2010 - 18:53 | 505907 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Seems to me that instead of "soup lines", we have iPad lines at the Apple store and velvet barrier lines at the top nightclubs in Vegas.

The girls around here continue to spend tons of money on liposuction, Botox, anti-wrinkle creams, and European lingerie.

Looks to me that instead of the "Great Economic Collapse", we are simply "muddling through" as predicted by the Grey Poupon carrying John Mauldin...

No doubt, Mr. "Muddle Through" is probably riding around in his Rolls Royce with a female driver these days...

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 18:55 | 505912 George the baby...
George the baby crusher's picture

That girl in the photo wearing the European lingerie, there's not a chance in hell she needs liposuction. You're delusional Mr Robotrader person.

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 21:50 | 506259 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

As lovely as she is, that Girl/Woman represents a whole lot more than the current Leftist meme will admit. She might be a great symbol for Capitalism and free markets?

How hard/smart would you like to work?

I'm not trying to inject morality into this: ( yes, I am. actually!).

I believe that what the Leftist are up to is immoral. They are in fact robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Spin it as you wish, blame whoever, you wanna play Daddy?

Okie dokie.

We are watching and you are failing.


Thu, 08/05/2010 - 23:17 | 506410 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"there's not a chance in hell she needs liposuction"

Ask to see the BEFORE picture....

Nip, tuck, suck, suck, suck.  Viola'!

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 19:12 | 505934 Sisyphus
Sisyphus's picture

<Quagmire> Giggity Giggity Goo </Quagmire>

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 21:04 | 506040 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

In Chicago, we have lines for Sprinkles Cupcakes.  Can't decide who has a greater hold over the masses - Oprah or Steve Jobs.

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 21:54 | 506267 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Short Oprah and Steve. Capitalism forever demands fresh meat.

Just the way it is.

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 22:56 | 506381 Azwethinkweiz
Azwethinkweiz's picture

In Los Angeles, we have lines around the block for cupcakes, frozen yogurt and just about anything coming out of a 'gourmet' roach-coach. The sheeple must eat and eat they will!

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 20:35 | 506111 Apply Force
Apply Force's picture

yeah... riggghhht robo. ha ha.  Almost 41 Mil on SNAP and and equal and growing number in search of ipads and vegas vacations.

Sounds about right < >

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 23:10 | 506398 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"The girls around here continue to spend tons of money on liposuction, Botox, anti-wrinkle creams, and European lingerie."

So, the wives and mistresses of the Wall Street and DC Elite are living well.

The financial crisis must be over then!  Lets all get loans to buy stocks - leverage is your friend!

Is this like just before the French Revolution where some famous (now headless) aristocrat states "They have no bread? Then let them eat cake"?  That helped to rally the masses, just not in the direction they hoped.

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 18:59 | 505918 MountainHawk
MountainHawk's picture

Too early for economic collapse, the pressure vessel hasn't reached critical pressure yet. Come on rally!!!

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 21:19 | 506202 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I'm with you...feeling a black october myself...but who knows

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 19:46 | 505994 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

It's gonna be a big down day tomorrow on heavy volume as the payrolls will disappoint hugely, setting off the next leg down.

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 19:57 | 506022 GIANTKILR
GIANTKILR's picture

I have thought this too many times and been wrong. I bet we end in the green or flat like today. There will never be a big down day again. They wont let it! Go all in. They are looking for that magic 14,000 number. Then you will think there was a recovery!!!! See we told ya!!!! I betcha!

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 20:13 | 506061 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

OK, you've convinced me, i've just reversed all my shorts and am now all in long with no stops. Easy money.

Oh, and i've just chucked all my gold and silver coins out of the window too, can't have that rot taking up room.

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 20:20 | 506085 qikbucks
qikbucks's picture

McD's and KFC both hired 150k each last month.. no worries.. we just have to eat our way out of this mess.

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 20:31 | 506106 GIANTKILR
GIANTKILR's picture

There are no fundamentals anymore just politics. We can't have the big O looking like he failed, so monkey pump the markets. It wont crash unless they want it to now. Think about how much of the economy this administration has taken over since in office. This is only what we know about. How much have they taken over behind the scenes and under cover? They have total control!!!

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 21:21 | 506204 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

Wall St $$$ has shifted to Repubs, they don't give a crap for Mr.O, a break occurred, Gasparino said several months ago.

Mr. Obummer has no clue what the HFTs are going to do, and I don't think they leak the job # either.

If they prop on bad news, next week down 5% for sure.

Support= SP 1115, Dow 10,425


Thu, 08/05/2010 - 22:36 | 506350 Everyman
Everyman's picture

No kidding, the group dementia shown by the perma bulls are akin to this:




"I can't help it, it's so pretty."

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 21:51 | 506260 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

I'd wait until after Labor Day to wager.

I'm just sayin'....

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 20:14 | 506073 three chord sloth
three chord sloth's picture

"So why is the labor market still stuck in the doldrums?"

That's easy to explain, and it doesn't take a long article about the matching process. One word: overcapacity. Why is there overcapacity? Again, one word: China.

Until most Chinese workers are paid a middle class wage there will be world-wide overcapacity... the old "workers should be able to buy what they make" path to a prosperous society. As long as they cannot there will be high unemployment and wage deflation in the US.

Our money flows East to purchase things, but little flows back... the workers cannot afford much of what we have to offer. The money instead flows up, and when the Chinese bigwigs and government collects enough from the multitudes they buy US government paper, which completes the circle. Unfortunately that leaves many US workers on the sidelines.

Think of it this way -- everytime you buy an iPad, you're really buying a bond, and getting the iPad as a bonus. Which is one more reason things will not change soon... the US government wants to get dollars into the hands of bond buyers, and the Chinese government and ownership class buys US bonds... at least for now. And you don't.

But to get back on the point: China gobbles up big chunks of US stimulus money, US discretionary spending, US business investment, etc... and spits out overcapacity and wage deflation. If you want that to stop, well... change the trade laws.

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 21:36 | 506231 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Believe it or not this has happened before.  Before the Opium Wars the Chinese would not accept western goods in exchange for theirs, they only wanted silver.  Drained a lot of silver out of Europe to.  Solution, hook them on opium.  Problem solved and China was gutted and occupied for years.

History is unfolding again and if the CIA was worth their salt they would be flooding China with heroin.  Come on guys, show us your pros!  Get in there and sell some damn heroin! /sarcasm

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 21:48 | 506250 IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

India on deck, Bangladesh in the hole, Vietnam in...

You can keep wishing for changes in trade laws. It will happen the day the US dollar is no longer the global reserve currency -- until then this hollowing process will continue to the detriment of labor to benefit top management and the financial sector.

You are lucky if you happen to be employed in finance, defense, energy or government sectors -- all others, including healthcare, will be cast away to retain the global reserve currency.

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 20:19 | 506077 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

I know technicals have been relegated to the root cellar during these times, or perhaps only when the robots deem them worthy - but I can't help but notice the rising wedge pattern on the daily Dow and contemplating the downside breakout potential.


Guess I'll find out after the NFP number.


Thu, 08/05/2010 - 23:15 | 506407 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

As far as the article goes - what?  I see a whole lot of words trying to say that they think the non-farm labor report will be flat (75k jobs created, 75k jobs deleted), but they aren't sure.  And then they explain, in a very technical way, that unemployment is high because not enough people are being hired.

Oh, really?

Fri, 08/06/2010 - 06:19 | 506658 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

"Our view remains that the primary job market problem is a shortfall in labor demand."

Just silly, isn't it.

I've spent the last 10 hours studying the cause of my hunger and concluded that I am hungry because I haven't eaten.

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 23:39 | 506435 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

Mish is getting under the BLS skin exposing/collaborating with ADP on the birth-death fraud. The ADP-BLS numbers are too far apart and the BLS is using annual revisions to make up for their fucked up model. They know it, keep writing and exposing this corruption til it's killed.


Fri, 08/06/2010 - 02:56 | 506598 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

just asking ------what si more devastating for stocks ...a Head n Shoulders ...or a rising wedge??

Sat, 10/09/2010 - 09:53 | 637605 senthil456
senthil456's picture

There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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