This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Looking For A Fake 700,000 May Non-Farm Payroll Number
This Friday the NFP report from the BLS could easily surpass 700,000 people, driven primarily by temporary census hirings and by Birth/Death adjustments. The Census Bureau reported that between the weeks of May 9 and May 15, there were 573,779 employed census workers. In the prior month, for the week ended April 17, there were 156,335 census workers employed, or a differential of 417,444 newly hired census workers between April and May. Keep in mind that in the May NFP report, the benefit from census workers was at 66,000, or 90,335 less than the Census reported number. As a result, due to the BLS' voodoo math and double counting, its is distinctly possible that the Census alone will add up to 507,779 workers (organic hirings of 417k and the plug for the prior period of 90k). Also, recall that the Birth-Death adjustment in April "added" another 188,000 workers. Retaining the same level of statistical adjustment, and the May NFP number will be at 700,000 before even one real full-time person has been added to the economy in the month of May!
Market News confronted the Census Bureau's Director Robert Groves for some clarification.
“This report will be our employment as of the week of May 12th, which will be a big rise for us.”
When asked if Census hiring will peak in May, Groves said the peak will occur from May going into June, with
June’s total being slightly lower than May’s.“The week of the 12th of June will be lower that’s what you have to remember,” Groves added.
Groves said July would be a dip from June, but August would be higher than July.
“August might be a little higher depending on the scheduling” Groves said.
Micheal Cook, Branch Chief of the Census Public Information Office, told MNI that Census hiring is currently on schedule.
“2010 Census operations are on pace with the original estimate of having approximately 1.4 million positions over the lifecycle of the entire 2010 Census,” Cook said.
“However, it is important to point out that positions span different periods of time coinciding with our various operations and therefore one person may be rehired and could hold multiple positions,” Cook added.
Groves said the Decennial 2010 Census has done most of its total hiring already.
The Decennial 2010 Census is currently in the “Door-to-Door” phase, with census workers physically knocking on doors. It is also the period when the number of people working for the census peaks.
The good news: the statistical abortion that is the census will soon begin to moderate. May and June will likely be the peak months, at least as pertain to BLS data fudging. The bad news: as the census data is trickling into the BLS computers on what appears a delayed basis, it is fully possible that the May NFP will be a Joe Biden wet dream-inducing 700,000. On the other hand, keeping a track of initial jobless claims, which have persistently refused to drop below the 400,000 level needed for organic growth and unemployment rate reduction, it means that with even three quarters of a million in NFP addition, not a single person may end up being hired by the economy. Additionally, with recent announcements by both financial and blue chip companies that mass layoff events are once again picking up, we may be in the paradoxical situation where we may be "adding" half a million in jobs monthly even as the US enters a double dip recession and pink slips are flying all over again.
»
- 13084 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Famous oxymorons:
Jobless Recovery
Jumbo Shrimp
War Game
Wedding Party
Genuine Replica
Toxic Assets
Italian Government.
Feminine Logic.
Amicable Divorce.
Military Intelligence.
Earned Income Tax Credit?
Money Multiplier
military intelligence
fiscal conservative
abundant poverty
educated investor
government worker
investment bank?
Green Shoots
Economic Recovery
Mission Accomplished
Change you can believe in (a bit long...sorry)
Yes we can!
I'm outraged...
Quantitative easing...
Expert on the Depression...
Hope and Change
Government Efficiency
becky quick
LOL good one.
Including temporary census employees in these statistics is a giant sham.
From what I've seen of the census workers, most couldn't find work in GOOD times.
You mean economic recovery can't be built on Napoleon Dynamite and his brother??
Unamerican! Shame on you!
You should see my guy. When this gig's over, he's gonna be a hungry Mofo.
If you're implying that they don't know how to do their jobs, it isn't a wonder...most receive "training," then are allowed to work only a few hours until they are laid off, then rehired again at a later time.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/two_more_census_workers_blow_the_OqY80N3DBTvL17VmxKKR0O
Including any state "workers", legitimate or not, is a sham.
Someone ought to start reporting a competing statistic that actually subtracts government overhead:
(Real Jobs - Fed - State) = Productive Employment
Birth/ Death Ratio = Fairy Tale Jobs
Which means they can play in Obummer's White House "pick up" games...
We're paying for them so why not include them?
The most interesting part is keeping track on the gov. employed list vs. private employed list. And in a dream I once thought there where ROI number available on government employEEEeeeesss also.
We should "include" them, but by *subtracting* them, since they're overhead. Adding them just allows manipulation via government bloat.
The whole point of a payroll number is to know how many people are out there producing. Census workers do not create any value, in fact I can't think of a better example of "deadweight loss".
Take the number of engineers, doctors, and burger flippers, and subtract out the government-union hole diggers and fillers and DMVers the first group will be taxed to pay for, and you have a much more accurate count of the producers.
Don't forget upcoming mass city and state layoffs!
The corpse of Engineers has hire 10,000 admin assistants to do notyhing, do they count?
CNBC were pimping 700K today....
Trish "full cups" Regan was notable on the 700K priming.
LOL. I happened to see CNBS for like 10 minutes with Trish's act before I almost hurled...
Boob_flation
"Boob_flation"
What a great and versatile term...
It can mean CNBC Silicon Anchorettes...
Or it can mean the actions of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve:
Bennie "The Boob" Bernank-ster...
I wonder if the CNBC women think anyone respects their financial/economic prowess, or if they are aware the only reason they're there is because...they're not hot enough to make the cut at fox biz. There are one or two exceptions to this in both directions of course.
The anchorettes know full well, its all about key demo figs.
Which Ms Drury was well and truly gunning for today. :-)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1511147735&play=1
They got prowess! You don't got any..
Apparently, Census has been found to hire, fire, rehire a person several times - each hire counts and is reported to Labor as a new job.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/two_more_census_workers_blow_the_O...
SHAM WOW!
Great find SS... next they'll be counting hooker's blo&jobs!
Slightly OT... Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that the quality of strippers in the clubs has been getting better lately?
ummm I thought hookers count
I better put that on the weekend adgenda-quality DD on local talent-check.
LOL! You, sir, are a treasure. Like I said to dumpster, please never leave us.
Ha! No worries mate... no-one else would have me!
Don't let it go to your head -- ZerOhead. He tells me the same thing. I think he's a flighty old ho who likes the person who made the last hilarious comment. Gotta watch that guy.
So you also have a IP ban on all those other sites he? :)
It used to be fun when you could simple start that little programm "IP hide" but by surfing through the cable, I can't do that anymore...
Na!... I'm just probably on the no-fly list!
"Slightly OT... Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that the quality of strippers in the clubs has been getting better lately?"
iwouldn'tknowthewifewon'tletmego
What's that CD?
I wouldn't know, the wife won't let me go.
I can't hear you CD.
I WOULDN'T KNOW. THE WIFE WON'T LET ME GO!
Yup. We're getting a "higher class" of stripper down here since the recession. Wall Street day job.
ROFLMAO!!!!
Perhaps she doesn't want you dancing around her playground? Never know with women these days.
CD, my wife would be the first to suggest going to a strip club around MY house!
Ooops... gotta go. Here she comes.
Again, what will the PTB and MSM say when the numbers reverse as census workers let go are reflected in upcoming months?
The MSM will say that the effects of the oil spill which was caused by the corrupt policies of George Bush caused unemployment to start back up despite the heroic efforts of President Obama to fix the problem. Or something to that effect.
the decrease in census workers will NOT be reflected in upcoing months. Census worker totals/payroll will levitate throught the end of 2010. There is NO WAY that a sitting administration will allow good fiction to expire ahead of an election. No way.
Of course, when 2011 rolls around we will be green-shooting and rebounding and hiring like crazy... because this is a V-shaped recovery (false) and global demand is expanding (false) and deficits don't matter (false) and the world has never been safer (false)...
Pol & MSM rhetoric is so full of lies and falsehoods that nobody even cares/notices another dozen frauds (BLM stats) being chucked over the fence... apparently the sheeple will eat anything.
Correct. I returned my census form before the deadline and got a call from them a few days ago. When I called back, they wanted to spend 10 minutes on the phone reviewing the form I returned asking whether anyone else lived in my home that had not been reported or if anyone listed as living in my home spends time at another residence.
When I told the guy that everything on the form is complete and there's no missing information, he responded by telling me that he was required to ask all of the detailed questions about each of the individuals listed.
This was clearly busy work and a ploy to maintain the staffing for as long as needed for political purposes.
I asked him how many times he had been fired and rehired to which he responded that he was hired only once.
Have you seen numbers from the Consumer Metrics Institute? Their claim to fame is forecasting the GDP 120 days before the Feds do.....they show an apparent 1% GDP for the 2nd quarter (down from the government's 3.0% adjusted number), and -2% GDP by the 3rd quarter.....what will the markets do with a -2% GDP? At some point, reality will have to force market responses, I believe.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/208166-double-dip-in-action-2-u-s-gdp-in-q3
The census workers will NEVER be let go! The Gubmint will just re-assign them to counting rock in Idaho or something even more useless than the census.
More like counting *rock* in Chicago...
How about cleaning beaches and counting dead animals.
can't they just do another census, a bigger one this time?
This is what Santelli thinks about the NFP comming on friday, check it out....
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1509906198&play=1
Wow. Santelli is going off the deep end. He can no longer tolerate the Kool Aide drinking couterparts.
Better to hear Steve 'there is no emergency unemployment program number' LIESman.
Gotta love Santelli!
+1!
Who is that jackass who thinks the S&P bottomed at 1046 with the Santelli bottom? Maybe ZeroHedge should tag this clowns with their comments and the date. Then come back 1 year later and nail their predictions. Heck go back to 1999, who was betting that the DOW would be the same 10 years later and down 30% inflation adjusted.
Boooo yaah! Turdonomics to the rescue.
Thats what im saying, have you ever heard such nonsense? Santelli told em all to knock off the kool aide drinking..
" DO YOU WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE ECONOMY, OR BE A WEIRDO?!"
How about a bunch of weirdos talking about the economy - that's why I come to ZH. And I love every reading minute of it. ;-)
delete
Why does LiesMan always have a computer in front of him? Data issues? <cough>
See? Obama is turning this economy around!
See? Obama is turning this economy around! Merrily we spin, down the drain
we go, round and round and away we go.
Anyone that believes the government figures is a fool. Whether it is CPI, GDP or unemployment, this government lies just like the Argentine and Venezuelan government. I know a number of unemployed people. They get their unemployment check directly deposited into their account. They won't look for work. They'll vote for the politician that gives them the most benefits.
The corporate welfare situation is worse (TBTF).
I misspelled - people that believe these figures are tools. They are beholden to corporate media, the War Party and Big Labor.
What brought Oliver Cromwell to power was the Charles I conspiracy with a foreign government against its own people.
I don't see a problem here. They have inverse ETFs, nicht wahr? Buy Friday close and wait for Monday nukes. How long until NFP BS is immaterial?
Started with EDZ at almost close today, meeself.
It will be a MONSTER JOBS report and it's not all Census hiring! Rubbish! Look for a meaningful rise in private sector full-time jobs, and manufacturing jobs too! Sorry guys, the fundamentals have been improving for a while, and now it will finally show up in jobs. Look hard at the numbers before dsimissing them out of hand.
Here is the May data: "290K of which census was 66k and Birth Death was 188k. Hurray -the
economy added a real 36k in jobs in April. Still, we are curious how
the Chairman will not be forced to discuss tightening after this B/D
adjustment inspired number (188K in April B/D, 81K in March). And in
the meantime, headlines will read Unemployment back to 9.9%, and
Underemployment back to 17.1%. Record jittery market bounces than calms
down again."
Will spare you the various deteriorating regional Fed and diffusion index data. Please advise where the improving fundamentals are? Hyperlinking (and not to Altucher) is encouraged.
Cmon Leo answer the man. He went out of his way to post.
You liar.
Naw, just post a picture of a half-naked chick and slip out the side exit.
+1
Leo will not respond with links, facts or fundamentals. Leo will not respond for the very same reason the Fed will not raise interest rates anytime soon... because there is no recovery, there are no improving fundamentals.
We are dragging along the bottom, holding our breath. All of the NFP/census/CPI-type garbage is just smoke-and-mirrors designed to protect incumbent politicians.
Politician jobs/benefits > reality + citizens + constitution. C'mon man, it's the new math.
Break a guys rose colored glasses why don't ya.
http://corpserun.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/rose_colored_glasses.jpg
Yeah, that is a point in my book.
I recall an Art Cashin post in the week after the last BLS data. The 36k figure is even too high, 26k of those 36k were temporary jobs. So April saw only 10k in organic jobs growth. Epic fail.
And what about oil cleanup workers? Few more spills and we get 1 mil. new employees.
Temp...then they get ill and have to go on medicaid...
Who said temp? They could be cleaning up for 10 years. You could add every unemployed person in Louisiana to the payroll for 10 years maybe forever, they could have 100% employment and become an jobs magnet to the rest of the country.
This is a total growth industry I'm tell'n ya. And you can turn around and hire that many more just to minister to the injured from the toxins they pick up cleaning beaches. Give some guy 8 hours of hazmat training and he can give the contaminated people their medications. Exponential, baby! Moonshot NFP numbers all over the place.
Yeah, that was a lot of sarcastic crap. But some of you bought it for a minute there, didn't you?
totally had me going..
WHo said medicaid?
First responders we salute you.
You have to give them credit, though. I can't believe they've kept it going this long.
IF the situation is truly horrific (which it probably is), AND the president has to project an image of confidense - how would you expect the problems to shine through? What sort of indicators would you expect in terms of the behaviour of Obama?
Where are the improving fundamentals? Here you go:
1) ISM Report: The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The manufacturing sector grew for the 10th consecutive month during May. The rate of growth as indicated by the PMI is driven by continued strength in new orders and production. Employment continues to grow as manufacturers have added to payrolls for six consecutive months. The recovery continues to broaden as 16 of 18 industries report growth. There are a number of reports, particularly in the tech sector, of shortages of components; this is the result of excessive inventory de-stocking during the downturn."
2) Payrolls May Underestimate U.S. Jobs as Household Survey Surges:In the first four months of the year, the adjusted household data shows employment grew by 1.67 million, almost three times the 573,000 increase in payrolls. At turning points in the economy, the former may prove more accurate because it’s more likely to pick up hiring at small companies and new firms that may be under the government’s radar.
“The household survey is actually more reliable than the payroll survey as long as you have several months to confirm the trend,” said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. “And we do.”
The jump in household employment may explain why consumer spending in the first quarter rose by the most in three years. It may also be one reason why federal tax collections are climbing as much as they are, Morgan Stanley economists David Greenlaw and Ted Wieseman said in a note to clients today. The Treasury has pulled in $303.3 billion in income tax receipts from the start of the fiscal year in October through May 5, up from $280.1 billion in the same time last year.
3) Real exports & real imports are surging:Real exports of goods and services increased 7.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 22.8 percent in the fourth. Real imports of goods and services increased 10.4 percent, compared with an increase of 15.8 percent.
4) Profits surged in Q1 2010: Profits before tax increased $180.9 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $137.0 billion in the fourth quarter.
But the key for Friday is the point #2. Importantly, at turning points, household survey leads the payrolls survey. Please read this NBF Hot Chart, US payrolls playing catch-up to household jobs (written May 7th, 2010):
Bottom-line: Fundamentals have been improving for quite some time and I expect a monster jobs report this Friday, with many full-time jobs in the private sector. I also expect a strong pickup in manufacturing jobs, many of which will come from the auto sector benefiting from the pickup in car sales.
You forgot to add number on food stamp participans (SNAP) crossed the 40 million mark....
well, that's great for JPM and their saavy CEO considering they own the company in charge of processing food stamps.
Name 1 company thats hired more than 1k workers this month?
hp just let go 6k yesterday
citi just closed 357 branches yesterday
Its funny thats there SO MUCH hiring going on but nobody can found out where...
And also, That MONSTER number was already priced in today....
Who knows how long the union thugs can keep those gubmint jobs going with just some furlough and salary concessions....??
Looks like they'll barely hold on until November. Then look out below.
That number will be celebrated for days to come. Short-term strongly bullish, but it will start tailspinning again.
There are none.
What's interesting is that companies don't hire by the thousands but they do fire them by the thousands so for there to be significant job growth, the additional jobs will have to come from a wide array of companies that all hire a few workers while, at the same time, there aren't any companies laying off hundreds/thousands of people.
Anyone who thinks we've arrived at that point are ignorant.
United States of America, Incorporated
Rubbish. Correct. The number has been that for 8 months. Are you the old HarryWanker I learned to go contrarian on?
Thanks TD for posting the B/D from last month. CNBS couldn't remember it. Bunch of frigging morons.
Hey Leo,
Keep blowing that sunshine.... Hey, is that why you like solars? I know I know blow it out my ass Crabby Cake. Whatever.
Just in case you didn't get a chance to listen to the song I posted the other day for you, here's a second shot.
Always Look On The Bright Side Of Life - Monty Python - Life of Brian
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo
Tyler hit it and I will reiterate it, 188K Birth/death model and mostly temporary/government jobs are not improving fundamentals. When are people going to give up on temporary jobs are bullish when it has been 8 months and temp jobs have not turned to full-time jobs?? How about initial claims at 460K+ a week? That is far from organic job creation. The fundamentals are improving, please. Just cause you bought spec solar stocks with oil below $80 don't make stuff up, it isn't our fault.
apparently several million jobs will be added in the solar industry.
Leo - Gotta share the anecdotal info around me in an upper middle class suburb I personally know of in the past month. One person hired - recent college grad for a solar company in R&D. Many many recent college grads unable to find employment, externships or internships - free or paid.
On the fired, let go side - 1 mid level sales person in office supplies business. 3 bankers - one commercial lending, one wealth management manager, one person in operations - all at regional banks. Many teachers and teacher aides, if not let go then furloughed for enough days to reduce their wages next year. An airline pilot and two attendants. 2 AT&T managers. A hospital administrator.
Two pending home sales fell through and are back on the market in my previously sought after neighborhood that rarely has two properties a year on the market. There are currently 8 properties on the market (one has a pending sign showing). If the market were really to stop falling in price here, I know of at LEAST 10 more properties that would be put on the market.
But you must have a really different vantage point or filter than I do. I sure don't see the environment you are describing.
Yea but it's the little things on the edges that aren't adding up.
SNAP (food stamps) just crossed the 40 million mark (40.1 million actually or a 21% increase over this time last year).
KC and Dallas Fed manfacturing data went from the +20% growth rate to <6% in one month.
Consumer bankruptcies are up 9% Y/Y (for May)...just the little things...
"Il est démontré, disait-il, que les choses ne peuvent être autrement; car tout étant fait pour une fin, tout est nécessairement pour la meilleure fin. Remarquez bien que les nez ont été faits pour porter des lunettes; aussi avons-nous des lunettes...c'était une chose indispensable dans le meilleur des mondes, un ingrédient nécessaire; car si Colomb n'avait pas attrapé dans une île de l'Amérique cette maladie qui empoisonne la source de la génération, qui souvent même empêche la génération, et qui est évidemment l'opposé du grand but de la nature, nous n'aurions ni le chocolat ni la cochenille"
Leo, bust me a line of what your smoking bro...
Total U.S. rail:
carloads in April 2010 were still down 11.5% from April 2008, including in 17 of the 19 commodity categories. Generally speaking, recent U.S. rail traffic gains are consistent with an economy that is recovering at a moderate but not breathtaking pace. There’s a long way yet to go before economic — and rail — recovery is complete.
Canadian railroads originated 184,696 trailers and containers in April 2010, up 14.3% from April 2009 but down 6.8% from April 2008.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, total Canadian rail carloads in April 2010 were down 0.2% and intermodal traffic was up 0.4%, respectively, from March 2010
U.S. railroads averaged 132,530 carloads of coal per week in April 2010, down a bit from March 2010 but up 7.1% from April 2009 — the first year-over-year increase in more than a year. In a typical year, well over 90% of coal mined in the U.S. is burned to generate electricity (around 5% is exported).
It’s no secret that coal-fired generation is under significant environmental pressure. It’s also under pressure from gas-fired generation due to sharply lower natural gas prices. The chart on the bottom right shows that utility coal stockpiles have come down from their record highs.
U.S. railroads averaged 20,958 carloads of grain per week in April 2010, down from 23,146 in March 2010 but up from 17,836 in April 2009. Year-over-year grain carloads on U.S. railroads have risen for six straight months at double-digit or near double-digit rates. Two of the many reasons why rail grain traffic is so variable are 1) grain production varies greatly from year to year and 2) the price of grain varies too, which influences whether the grain will move to market rather than stay in storage in the hope that prices will rise later
PMI Decoupling from fund-a-mentals Leo:
PMI and the next month’s rail carloadings excluding coal and
grain used to move in virtual lockstep, but beginning in mid-2009 PMI began to significantly outpace rail carloads.If you put a lot of credence in the inventory-sales ratio...the PMI may be overvalued.
US Industrial Growth Trending Lower:
Industrial production rose 0.1% in March 2010 from February 2010, its ninth straight monthly increase. It’s a bit worrying, though, that the trend over these nine months is for lower growth...Not surprisingly, capacity for most industries has fallen over the last 18 months.
Down Sectors: Paper, Wood Products, Iron, Steel, Chemicals, Motor Vehicles
Labor: (hahahahahahahahahaha)
Then there’s the question of labor productivity. Output per hour in 2009 was
the highest since 2003. As employers find they can “do more with less,”
it presents an additional obstacle to job growth.
Class I freight railroad employment rose in March 2010, up from February
2010 and the second straight monthly increase. After the March increase, the rail industry is down more than 12% from its november, 2006 peak...not surprisingly, there is a strong positive correlation between the number of train and engine employees and rail traffic volume. (so if the number of cars are decreasing so is staffing)
Retail:
“Core” retail sales — retail sales
excluding autos, gasoline, and building materials — rose 0.5% in March, the seventh increase in the past eight months for that measure. In March 2010 core retail sales were the highest ever.
However overall, retail sales are still way below 2008 levels and are par with 2006 levels.
Housing:
Housing starts in March 2010 were
20.2% higher than March 2009 totals, (hahahahahahahahahahahaha)
but that’s mainly due to the fact that March 2009 was a dismal month for
housing starts. Happy days are not yet here again for homebuilders.
Dollar:
May dollar strength = Lower exports
RAIL FREIGHT CARS IN STORAGE:
A freight car is deemed to be “in storage” if it has not had a loaded revenue move in more than 60 days. Rail cars are stored when they are not needed due to lack of demand; they come out of storage when demand improves. Figures are for the entire North American rail freight car fleet and include rail cars owned by railroads, leasing companies, shippers, and others. The total freight car fleet changes from month to month as new cars are added and old cars are scrapped. Data prior to March 2009 are not available.
• Our best estimate is that, when the economy and the rail industry are at their healthiest, around 2% or 3% of freight cars are in storage.
• As of May 1, 2010, 369,090 freight cars — 23.8% of the fleet — were in storage. Cars in
storage have declined for 10 straight months, totaling nearly 134,000 cars out since that time. Approximately 18,000 cars came out of storage in April 2010, down from 21,000 in February 2010 and more than 31,000 in March 2010.
As a counter:
Act Research projects that “heavy-duty (Class 8) vehicle production will grow 14% year-over-year in 2010 before ramping up significantly to 72% growth in 2011.”(!!!)
He added that medium-duty vehicle (Classes 5-7) production, which he said is largely tied to the health of the housing and construction industries, is forecast to experience a “more steady and gradual increase in production, growing 19% in 2010 and 32% in 2011. (wow!!!! buy lenar!, pulty! buy! buy! buy!)
Leo, your theodicical and pseudo-edenic ramblings are the product of a high fever. Its not our fault you got some disease, now take that chip of your shoulder and layoff the typer before you humiliate yourself with " We must cultivate our garden".
Data: http://www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/~/media/AAR/RailTimeIndicators/RailTime...
http://fleetowner.com/management/news/trucking-economic-fundamental-up-0...
Keep fellating that monster leo, at this point you really have no other choice.
@USKHG
Thanks for this. Leo will promptly ignore it, but I did enjoy the read. We are a long way down from the peak and farther to fall, soon.
Jesus H Christ, how many months in a row are you going to post this crap?
Apparently he will continue like clockwork, you'll notice he only comes out on the vapor rally days now...any down days and you won't see Leo. Maybe that's because he too busy "buying the dip."
Friday should be the shorting opportunity of a lifetime.
Unfortunately, I have no patience.
I believe that opportunity will come tomorrow afternoon. With Biden and Obama already telling us about unbelievable numbers coming on Friday, hence the light volume rally today, we are setting up for a killer move down on starting Thursday afternoon.
My thoughts, too. (Though maybe Friday late morning or afternoon.) Obama is ignorant of the market as a discount mechanism. He thinks we'll all be impressed and happy come Friday morning that he as so right.
Wish I could see his reaction to the market when the number comes out and down she goes when we all sell on the news.
Harry! Hate to see you on the dark side. Started shorting at close here on Wed, but have powder left for later. It's all so much bullcrap. Just look at CNBS whores necklines.
I hope you're right, because if the numbers ain't down near the end of biz day Thurs, I'm hoarding cash that evening to start shorting again on Monday...
Way too chicken for this stuff, but me thinks Friday will climb alot. It is just, that-risk-over-the-weekend-thing...
Tyler, NEVER use Joe Biden and wet dream in a sentence again.
The administration is doing the full court media press on this number, hoping (praying) that it will some how take the emphasis off Obama & Co's failure in the GOM (unless anyone thinks forming a commission is the definition of success).
One wonders if there was ever an administration that has frontrun an employment number to the extent (actually any extent) that this one (Obama and Biden) have done this week?
If anyone actually think that employment is really improving (LEO), read this:
Long-Term Unemployment Hits New High, Cuts Across Income Levels, Demographics:
The job market is improving, but one statistic presents a stark reminder of the challenges that remain: Nearly half of the unemployed—45.9%—have been out of work longer than six months, more than at any time since the Labor Department began keeping track in 1948.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703961204575280753219161046.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsThird
As I said in the last day of 2009:
"So I guess this means that companies that didn't go bankrupt have already fired almost everyone they could fire, and there is no more room for layoffs. But these companies will never hire people again, so the wretches who were fired can expect they will never achieve a new job, and will receive unemployment benefits for the next 20 years." (Zina, 12/31/2009)
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/same-unemployment-insurance-misreportin...
I believe most people wich born between 1955 and 1970 and lost the job in this recession will never get a new job again...
If there is one thing this recovery has proven time and time again is that the good news doesn't have to be real for the markets to move up on it. Hell it doesn't even have to be presented as news, quickly dismissed rumors will do the trick.
+1 Turdonomics
Spot on. Do you recall the OMG 3.5% growth figure that was eventually reduced all the way down to - what - 2.1%? Initially, we got a strong rally on basis of the better-than-expected numbers, when the final tally was in (which showed growth below expectations), the market didn't even care.
Rally on bullshit, ignore facts. That's what the market does.
I'm struggling with the potential algo dynamic for Friday.
Its been clearly established that ES currently moves in lock-step with the Euro. The big, happy, blowout number that Leo pimps would apparently signify great strength in the US economy. A strong US economy means you should buy the $. If you buy the $, then the euro goes down. If the euro goes down, then the stock market will go down.
Hmmm. An interesting paradox, indeed.
Tried-and-true correlations are being thrown out the window at an increasing rate. I suggest putting the 20th-century market playbook back on the shelf.
The new playbook is being written in real time by central bankers. We've been beaten into submission, so nobody bothers with fundamental justification for market action anymore.
Before it's over, dogs and cats will be humping each other with abandon... No axiom or correlation will survive the grandest larceny of all time...
It puts the lotion in the basket....
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4785978113046233213#
Is cleaning up oil from the beaches and marshes a non-farm job and will the gobermint count them as new hires?
I believe most people in the fishing industry are self employed and will not be included in the unemployment numbers.
I finally got to use the phrase "I believe" see above.
Wonder how many workers on the platforms that were forced to cease operations for a minimum of 6 months, maybe they'll count although I suspect a fair amount of contractors mixed in. Either way a bigger chunk of the economy than fishing is likely gone if the numbers I saw were correct on Oil Drum.
And just in case anyone was overly excited about jobs, we see this headline over at Calculated Risk:
Personal Bankruptcy Filings increase 9% compared to May 2009
I guess you need to get a temp job to be able to afford to file BK, hence the increase in the BLS number.
But buy AAPL on the dips....it still works, as long as you sell the rips.
Here's what's going on in California:
http://www.edd.ca.gov/Unemployment/Federal_Unemployment_Insurance_Extens...
Repeat: several thousand each week.
So? Just reverse the sign. Any law against that, that would be enforced in your wettest dreams?
I wonder what Freud would say about the meaning of "sign reversal" in a dream...
... and those 65 and older will recieve Notice of Exhaustion of Medicaid and Social Security Benefits . Kahlifornias a trend setter
The white House has PLENTY OF JOBS, there begging people to fill positions,
http://www.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100602/ap_on_el_se/us_colorado_senate
Short the long bond and go long stocks for a trade. Easy money for the weekend parties.
TBT. Ok.
Like magic, the Gubmint has discovered if you just SAY things are great, and ignore the people who know otherwise, the country lives on in ignorant bliss!
All Census workers to the Gulf with mops and brushes stat!
Are there by any chance decent "foodstamping" numbers that may shed a light on the actual state of the economy?
NFP, jobless claims numbers..... Well It's all creative accounting.
LMAO
credibility is fading, people can ignore for only so long and then the reality sets in.
They Only Lie When They Breath: The U.S. Government
"The worker, Naomi Cohn, told The Post that she was hired and fired a number of times by Census. Each time she was hired back, it seems, Census was able to report the creation of a new job to the Labor Department."
Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/two_more_census_workers_blow_the_OqY80N3DBTvL17VmxKKR0O#ixzz0p9HJKACf"
I remember reading an article in the Washington Post in the 80s about how everyone in the Soviet Union had to lie to survive (about factory production numbers, individual production numbers...). That was the first time I ever thought: The Soviet Union is going to collapse. It just can't continue like that.
Now it’s clear the U.S. government is just like Pravda: "They only lie when the breath". This loss of basic honesty is going to take an immense toll on this country.
Your gold manipulation story is just one symptom an endemic dishonesty that has rotted-out the foundation of American politics. Unless the government and population repent, I expect a major downturn in the US standard of living.
Proverbs 16:12 "It is an abomination for kings to commit wicked acts, For a throne is established on righteousness. "
MontyHigh,
www.worldofwallstreet.us-----------------------------------------------------------
Two more Census workers blow the whistle
By JOHN CRUDELE
Last Updated: 1:23 AM, May 25, 2010
Posted: 12:42 AM, May 25, 2010
You know the old saying: "Everyone loves a charade." Well, it seems that the Census Bureau may be playing games.
Last week, one of the millions of workers hired by Census 2010 to parade around the country counting Americans blew the whistle on some statistical tricks.
The worker, Naomi Cohn, told The Post that she was hired and fired a number of times by Census. Each time she was hired back, it seems, Census was able to report the creation of a new job to the Labor Department.
Below, I have a couple more readers who worked for Census 2010 and have tales to tell.
But first, this much we know.
Each month Census gives Labor a figure on the number of workers it has hired. That figure goes into the closely followed monthly employment report Labor provides. For the past two months the hiring by Census has made up a good portion of the new jobs.
Labor doesn't check the Census hiring figure or whether the jobs are actually new or recycled. It considers a new job to have been created if someone is hired to work at least one hour a month.
One hour! A month! So, if a worker is terminated after only one hour and another is hired in her place, then a second new job can apparently be reported to Labor . (I've been unable to get Census to explain this to me.)
Here's a note from a Census worker -- this one from Manhattan:
"John: I am on my fourth rehire with the 2010 Census.
"I have been hired, trained for a week, given a few hours of work, then laid off. So my unemployed self now counts for four new jobs.
"I have been paid more to train all four times than I have been paid to actually produce results. These are my tax dollars and your tax dollars at work.
"A few months ago I was trained for three days and offered five hours of work counting the homeless. Now, I am knocking (on) doors trying to find the people that have not returned their Census forms. I worked the 2000 Census. It was a far more organized venture.
"Have to run and meet my crew leader, even though with this rain I did not work today. So I can put in a pay sheet for the hour or hour and a half this meeting will take. Sincerely, C.M."
And here's another:
"John: I worked for (Census) and I was paid $18.75 (an hour) just like Ms. Naomi Cohn from your article.
"I worked for about six weeks or so and I picked the hours I wanted to work. I was checking the work of others. While I was classifying addresses, another junior supervisor was checking my work.
"In short, we had a "checkers checking checkers" quality control. I was eventually let go and was told all the work was finished when, in fact, other people were being trained for the same assignment(s).
"I was re-hired about eight months later and was informed that I would have to go through one week of additional training.
"On the third day of training, I got sick and visited my doctor. I called my supervisor and asked how I can make up the class. She informed me that I was 'terminated.' She elaborated that she had to terminate three other people for being five minutes late to class.
"I did get two days' pay and I am sure the 'late people' got paid also. I think you would concur that this is an expensive way to attempt to control sickness plus lateness. I am totally convinced that the Census work could be very easily done by the US Postal Service.
"When I was trying to look for an address or had a question about a building, I would ask the postman on the beat. They knew the history of the route and can expand in detail who moved in or out etc. I have found it interesting that if someone works one hour, they are included in the labor statistics as a new job being full.
"I am not surprised that you can't get any answers from Census staff; I found there were very few people who knew the big picture. M.G."
When I received my Census form in the mail, I filled it out. Nobody had to knock on my door.
I answered truthfully about the number of people living in my household. But I could have just as easily dou bled the number. Why not? Didn't Census ad vertisements imply that my community would get more federal money if the popula tion were larger?
I'm glad people are finding work with the Census. For some it's the only work they have had this year and the chump change they are making for a few hours' work is a godsend.
But wasting taxpayers' money on busywork isn't going to do much for the economy. john.crudele@nypost.com
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/two_more_census_workers_blow_the_OqY80N3DBTvL17VmxKKR0O#ixzz0p9HJKACf
and KD has the latest O'Keefe vid of census fraud.
I WANT NFP OF 2 MILLION, DAMIT!
At least under Ronnie Reagan there was a fairytale you could chose to believe in: we were all going to be service workers, using our brains for higher pay to make up for the factories closing and being outsourced. We would serve burgers to each other and wine cooler and feel macho watching Top Gun.
An icy cold Bartles and Jaymes melon splash...yeah, it was a good time.
We thank you for your support.
I live in a city of pop. ~500k where there are an avg of 2-4 'real' job postings per day for this area. Births outpace deaths by ~6 each day.
Though I am not an economist, I'm rather good with addition/subtraction and convoluted method of analysis.
OK...but who is going to let the algos know about these great numbers?
Oh yeah...humans...I almost forgot!
Ok we're through with "The Service Economy" as a sustainable model (where we all counted each other's beans and flipped burgers for each other), we've been through the "Entrepreneurial Economy" where we would all sell stuff to each other on the internet (some of us still sell our stuff on Main Street), we've also outsurvived "The Ownership Economy" where we all flipped condos and super sized cardboard McMansions to one another.
So now what?
A modest proposal to the Obama administration for unveiling after Friday's NFP report:
"The Green Society", to be launched with an appropirately bombastic speech. We will all blow on each other's wind turbines, run in each other's hamster cages, compost each other's septic residue, bag our farts, and send most of the oil to Afghanistan and Iraq for appropriate allocation. It'll be, well, great!
290,000 jobs were supposedly created in April: 188,000 were created out of thin air in the birth/death number. Another 62,000 were Census jobs and 26,000 were temporary jobs. That's 276,000 jobs that were either created by the BLS or were temp jobs. That leaves 14,000 real jobs created. 150,000 new jobs need to be created each month for new workforce entrants. So 150,000 - 14,000 = a shortage of 136,000 real jobs for April.
This will all come to an end when the goverment cannot play with the numbers anymore and hide the fact that this country never left a recession it is all goverment hypocrisy..This is all going to end very badly..Gold/Silver is the place to be...And if you want a great short XHB the homebuilder tax credit funding has ended unless the govt wants to print some more money to help them
My Ex is an upper-management supervisor with the census. She said that they are way ahead of schedule, at least in her region; and that the door-knockers, which constitute most of the workforce, will be back in the unemployment fold very soon.
Ironic that the "census is coming to eat your babies" conservatives (e.g. Batshit Bachmann) could have been most 'fiscally prudent' by filling out the damn form and keeping a door-knocker off the government payroll.
Can your former wife shed any light on the hire-em-fire-em-hire-em shenanigans? Or should we just wait for Leo's 'MONSTER' to be revised down to a pet rock next month?
Our representatives are lucky to have an electorate that suffers from either Alzheimers or adult ADD.
It is a slow day in a small Florida town and streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody is living on credit. A rich tourist drives through town, stops at the motel, and lays a $100 bill on the desk saying he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs to pick one for the night.
As soon as he walks upstairs, the motel owner grabs the bill and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.
The butcher takes the $100 and runs down the street to retire his debt to the pig farmer.
The pig farmer takes the $100 and heads off to pay his bill to his supplier, .the Farmer’s Co-op
The guy at the Farmer’s Co-op takes the $100 and runs to pay his debt to the local prostitute, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer her “services” on credit.
The hooker rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill with the hotel owner.
The hotel proprietor then places the $100 back on the counter so the rich traveler will not suspect anything.
At that moment the traveler comes down the stairs, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, picks up the $100 bill and leaves town.
No one produced anything. No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now out of debt and now looks to the future with a lot more optimism.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how the United States Government is conducting business today
Not true; the motel owner committed a crime (which did pay), the butcher sold some meat, the pig farmer also, the hooker did a john, and the motel owner rented a room.
Ask yourself this...how much less dysfunctional is capitalism if the motel owner took out a $100 loan from the bank to pay the butcher etc ad nauseam?
How about if the hooker does the motel owner for the room and the middlemen are left holding their meat (pun intended)?