Looking For A Fake 700,000 May Non-Farm Payroll Number

Tyler Durden's picture

This Friday the NFP report from the BLS could easily surpass 700,000 people, driven primarily by temporary census hirings and by Birth/Death adjustments. The Census Bureau reported that between the weeks of May 9 and May 15, there were 573,779 employed census workers. In the prior month, for the week ended April 17, there were 156,335 census workers employed, or a differential of 417,444 newly hired census workers between April and May. Keep in mind that in the May NFP report, the benefit from census workers was at 66,000, or 90,335 less than the Census reported number. As a result, due to the BLS' voodoo math and double counting, its is distinctly possible that the Census alone will add up to 507,779 workers (organic hirings of 417k and the plug for the prior period of 90k). Also, recall that the Birth-Death adjustment in April "added" another 188,000 workers. Retaining the same level of statistical adjustment, and the May NFP number will be at 700,000 before even one real full-time person has been added to the economy in the month of May!

Market News confronted the Census Bureau's Director Robert Groves for some clarification.

“This report will be our employment as of the week of May 12th, which will be a big rise for us.”

When asked if Census hiring will peak in May, Groves said the peak will occur from May going into June, with
June’s total being slightly lower than May’s.

“The week of the 12th of June will be lower that’s what you have to remember,” Groves added.

Groves said July would be a dip from June, but August would be higher than July.

“August might be a little higher depending on the scheduling” Groves said.

Micheal Cook, Branch Chief of the Census Public Information Office, told MNI that Census hiring is currently on schedule.

“2010 Census operations are on pace with the original estimate of having approximately 1.4 million positions over the lifecycle of the entire 2010 Census,” Cook said.

“However, it is important to point out that positions span different periods of time coinciding with our various operations and therefore one person may be rehired and could hold multiple positions,” Cook added.

Groves said the Decennial 2010 Census has done most of its total hiring already.

The Decennial 2010 Census is currently in the “Door-to-Door” phase, with census workers physically knocking on doors. It is also the period when the number of people working for the census peaks.

The good news: the statistical abortion that is the census will soon begin to moderate. May and June will likely be the peak months, at least as pertain to BLS data fudging. The bad news: as the census data is trickling into the BLS computers on what appears a delayed basis, it is fully possible that the May NFP will be a Joe Biden wet dream-inducing 700,000. On the other hand, keeping a track of initial jobless claims, which have persistently refused to drop below the 400,000 level needed for organic growth and unemployment rate reduction, it means that with even three quarters of a million in NFP addition, not a single person may end up being hired by the economy. Additionally, with recent announcements by both financial and blue chip companies that mass layoff events are once again picking up, we may be in the paradoxical situation where we may be "adding" half a million in jobs monthly even as the US enters a double dip recession and pink slips are flying all over again.

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Turd Ferguson's picture

Famous oxymorons:

Jobless Recovery

Jumbo Shrimp

War Game

Wedding Party

Genuine Replica

RF's picture

Toxic Assets

Italian Government.

Feminine Logic.

Amicable Divorce.

Military Intelligence.

 

Ragnar D's picture

Earned Income Tax Credit?

Money Multiplier

buzzsaw99's picture

military intelligence

fiscal conservative

Turd Ferguson's picture

abundant poverty

educated investor

government worker

hambone's picture

Green Shoots

Economic Recovery

Mission Accomplished

Change you can believe in (a bit long...sorry)

Problem Is's picture

Yes we can!

 

     I'm outraged...

 

           Quantitative easing...

 

                    Expert on the Depression...

williambanzai7's picture

Including temporary census employees in these statistics is a giant sham.

Brett in Manhattan's picture

From what I've seen of the census workers, most couldn't find work in GOOD times.

mephisto's picture

You mean economic recovery can't be built on Napoleon Dynamite and his brother??

Unamerican! Shame on you!

ColonelCooper's picture

You should see my guy.  When this gig's over, he's gonna be a hungry Mofo.

MilleniumJane's picture

If you're implying that they don't know how to do their jobs, it isn't a wonder...most receive "training," then are allowed to work only a few hours until they are laid off, then rehired again at a later time.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/two_more_census_workers_blow_the_OqY80N3DBTvL17VmxKKR0O

Ragnar D's picture

Including any state "workers", legitimate or not, is a sham.

Someone ought to start reporting a competing statistic that actually subtracts government overhead:

 

(Real Jobs - Fed - State) = Productive Employment

Problem Is's picture

Birth/ Death Ratio  =  Fairy Tale Jobs

Which means they can play in Obummer's White House "pick up" games...

Sudden Debt's picture

We're paying for them so why not include them?

The most interesting part is keeping track on the gov. employed list vs. private employed list. And in a dream I once thought there where ROI number available on government employEEEeeeesss also.

Ragnar D's picture

We should "include" them, but by *subtracting* them, since they're overhead.  Adding them just allows manipulation via government bloat.

 

The whole point of a payroll number is to know how many people are out there producing.  Census workers do not create any value, in fact I can't think of a better example of "deadweight loss".

 

Take the number of engineers, doctors, and burger flippers, and subtract out the government-union hole diggers and fillers and DMVers the first group will be taxed to pay for, and you have a much more accurate count of the producers.

Hungry For Knowledge's picture

Don't forget upcoming mass city and state layoffs!

oklaboy's picture

The corpse of Engineers has hire 10,000 admin assistants to do notyhing, do they count?

etrader's picture

CNBC were pimping 700K today....

Trish "full cups" Regan was notable on the 700K priming.

 

The Rock's picture

LOL. I happened to see CNBS for like 10 minutes with Trish's act before I almost hurled...

Problem Is's picture

"Boob_flation"

What a great and versatile term...

It can mean CNBC Silicon Anchorettes...

Or it can mean the actions of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve:

Bennie "The Boob" Bernank-ster...

Conrad Murray's picture

I wonder if the CNBC women think anyone respects their financial/economic prowess, or if they are aware the only reason they're there is because...they're not hot enough to make the cut at fox biz.  There are one or two exceptions to this in both directions of course.

etrader's picture

The anchorettes know full well, its all about key demo figs.

 Which Ms Drury was well and truly gunning for today. :-)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1511147735&play=1

Caviar Emptor's picture

They got prowess! You don't got any..

SimpleSimon's picture

Apparently, Census has been found to hire, fire, rehire a person several times - each hire counts and is reported to Labor as a new job.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/two_more_census_workers_blow_the_O...

ZerOhead's picture

SHAM WOW!

Great find SS... next they'll be counting hooker's blo&jobs!

Slightly OT... Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that the quality of strippers in the clubs has been getting better lately?

Caviar Emptor's picture

ummm I thought hookers count

Mactheknife's picture

I better put that on the weekend adgenda-quality DD on local talent-check.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

LOL!  You, sir, are a treasure.  Like I said to dumpster, please never leave us.

ZerOhead's picture

Ha! No worries mate... no-one else would have me!

 

RockyRacoon's picture

Don't let it go to your head -- ZerOhead.  He tells me the same thing.  I think he's a flighty old ho who likes the person who made the last hilarious comment.  Gotta watch that guy.

Sudden Debt's picture

So you also have a IP ban on all those other sites he? :)

It used to be fun when you could simple start that little programm "IP hide" but by surfing through the cable, I can't do that anymore...

ZerOhead's picture

Na!... I'm just probably on the no-fly list!

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Slightly OT... Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that the quality of strippers in the clubs has been getting better lately?"

iwouldn'tknowthewifewon'tletmego

What's that CD?

I wouldn't know, the wife won't let me go.

I can't hear you CD.

I WOULDN'T KNOW. THE WIFE WON'T LET ME GO!

Caviar Emptor's picture

Yup. We're getting a "higher class" of stripper down here since the recession. Wall Street day job. 

Conrad Murray's picture

Perhaps she doesn't want you dancing around her playground?  Never know with women these days.

RockyRacoon's picture

CD, my wife would be the first to suggest going to a strip club around MY house! 

Ooops... gotta go. Here she comes.

 

Cleanclog's picture

Again, what will the PTB and MSM say when the numbers reverse as census workers let go are reflected in upcoming months?

RichardENixon's picture

The MSM will say that the effects of the oil spill which was caused by the corrupt policies of George Bush caused unemployment to start back up despite the heroic efforts of President Obama to fix the problem. Or something to that effect.

hound dog vigilante's picture

the decrease in census workers will NOT be reflected in upcoing months. Census worker totals/payroll will levitate throught the end of 2010. There is NO WAY that a sitting administration will allow good fiction to expire ahead of an election. No way.

Of course, when 2011 rolls around we will be green-shooting and rebounding and hiring like crazy... because this is a V-shaped recovery (false) and global demand is expanding (false) and deficits don't matter (false) and the world has never been safer (false)...

Pol & MSM rhetoric is so full of lies and falsehoods that nobody even cares/notices another dozen frauds (BLM stats) being chucked over the fence... apparently the sheeple will eat anything.

 

SilverIsKing's picture

Correct.  I returned my census form before the deadline and got a call from them a few days ago.  When I called back, they wanted to spend 10 minutes on the phone reviewing the form I returned asking whether anyone else lived in my home that had not been reported or if anyone listed as living in my home spends time at another residence.

When I told the guy that everything on the form is complete and there's no missing information, he responded by telling me that he was required to ask all of the detailed questions about each of the individuals listed.

This was clearly busy work and a ploy to maintain the staffing for as long as needed for political purposes.

I asked him how many times he had been fired and rehired to which he responded that he was hired only once.

Hungry For Knowledge's picture

Have you seen numbers from the Consumer Metrics Institute?  Their claim to fame is forecasting the GDP 120 days before the Feds do.....they show an apparent 1% GDP for the 2nd quarter (down from the government's 3.0% adjusted number), and -2% GDP by the 3rd quarter.....what will the markets do with a -2% GDP?  At some point, reality will have to force market responses, I believe. 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/208166-double-dip-in-action-2-u-s-gdp-in-q3

SheepDog-One's picture

The census workers will NEVER be let go! The Gubmint will just re-assign them to counting rock in Idaho or something even more useless than the census.