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Low Pressure Area Over Honduras Now Has 70% Chance Of Becoming Cyclone, Second Area Over Leeward Islands Monitored
The National Hurricane Center has identified a low pressure area developing over Honduras, which is now expected to become a tropical depression shortly as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula, and has a 70% chance of becoming a full-blown tropical cyclone as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico. And just to keep things real, there is a second storm farther out east, which currently has a 10% chance of becoming a cyclone. Keep an eye on those BP shares.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND CAYMAN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED.
2. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
NNNN
h/t papaswamp
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Maybe it will put out the oil fires that are burning sea turtles.
What happens if the Blow Out Preventer topples over and a hurricane hits?
The blast from the methane explosion hits the hurricane forces and...
I've had to watch these storms carefully since I moved to New Orleans in 1988, a couple of weeks after I got here Gilbert came into the Gulf and all the meteorologists except one had it turning north and completely destroying N.O., and if it had turned it surely would have. I have gotten very good at picking through the mass of models and predictions on these things, for example I was convinced before almost everyone that Katrina would hit us because I listened to that same meteorologist who said Gilbert, and later Andrew, would miss us. (He's not always right but he tends to call the big ones.) It is probably way too early to worry about a storm of any significant strength affecting the danger zone now. The big scary ones are likely to start threatening the area anywhere from 3 to 5 weeks from now. That's just a guess, but I feel it's a hard earned educated guess. Nevertheless I'm watching the current situation with great interest and apprehension.
Would you care to name him so that we can listen too?
http://www.bobbreck.com/
Having lived in Key West, Fl since 1973, I can tell you what the Conchs have always said...storms that come off the Yucatan are to be respected and feared. In all the years here I do not remember any storms off the Yucatan this early...October yes, November yes.
Is the oil, like a swimming pool cover, making the water warmer and pulling storms in? Well, the truth is so hidden these days to get a good answer is not easy.
SO WHY IS THE F.C.C. and NOAH pulling the plug on satalite high definition pictures and data from the GULF??????????????? It will now be controled by "a private contractor" un-named to date, and 'they' will control it's AVAILIBILITY. This was announced on US-1 radio on Friday and all were asked to contact the FCC and object. This is very disturbing. PLEASE do this, we have enough hidden from us everyday but this is a slap in the nations face by all the "un-named"in control of public assets.
Obviously not good if the already leaning Blow Out Preventer (3 stories High)....
in the event it tips over and restricts flow in anyway this will create backpressure on the well system (casing included) which in turn will force an outlet at the existing fissures to expand and increase their respective flow rates............. We want to keep the leaking BOP in its current state (this is only short term as erosion of the well system continues at an accelerated rate ~ 2" wall thickness at installation and now ~1 or less.....
move those that are within 200 miles of the Gulf Coast to safety away from the southeastern region
I'm preparing to put my "DOW 10,000" hat back into storage again.
Someone tell the Goddess to stop cockteasing with these storms. Fucking bitches always playing games.
WTF is this, The Weather Channel?
Durden, You're freaking awsome.
Since I'm too stupid to know what coding they use for images here..forcast track (as of today) is below.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_64ATY6j2Ms8/TCTCDuI5O0I/AAAAAAAAAgA/23uqupt-3G...
No one, yet? Sweet.
Cmon ZH. Let's try and focus on the most pressing issues in our nation right now such as:
http://www.tmz.com/2010/06/25/michael-jackson-death-anniversary-live-for...
Hurricane Barack.
No: Hurricane Capitalism.
520 years of it and counting for poor América - lots of pillage and theft under the banners of 'freedom' and 'civilization'.
Capitalism caused the Ma'afa and the encomienda system to emerge back in the day, and the systems rapacity explains BP's rape of the gulf and the pending refugee crisis today.
Capitalists who run companies like BP and JP Morgan (their largest shareholder, if I'm not mistaken) - not the silly little poser whose job is running interference for them - did this.
for the scientists out there: I heard that it's possible for the gulf to turn into a gulf of flame if there's a substantial thunder strike -> intuition tells me that this is false [but please correct me if i'm wrong]
if methane levels are high enough near the surface there could be a localized one, but the volume of water to oil is still too high.
Actually a tropical storm was a godsend when the gigantic spill off Mexico happened. 150 miles of Texas beach was covered in thick oil. The storm washed it out to sea and immensely helped the cleanup effort. So maybe a storm's not such a bad thing for this disaster.
That's like scrubbing stains in the carpet, pushing the particulate matter down into the carpet instead of pulling it up and out. "Look, all better!"
Poof! Gone! Now that's what I call investigative journalism! I wonder what will happen when a storm passes RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF THE MESS.
Or maybe oil just isn't as toxic as we think! It's a-okay!
30 years later, no cancer in sight! Hmm. Wonder what Erin Brockovich would say.
Notice how many people worry and complain about the weather, but do nothing about it?
Fortunately for us, someone is listening...the US secret government will switch HAARP on, and the hurricane will be blown to Cuba, yielding a second benefit by destroying the godless communists. Amerika Uber alles.
/*tinfoil hat on*/
Or, on the flip side, they will use HAARP / chemtrails to make sure this hurricane has the worst possible effect. Following suit will be massive evacuation of the GoM & Florida, and a swift but "necessary" passing of Cap'n Trade.
...oh yeah, and "bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran"
/*tinfoil hat off*/
I think we need to update the lyrics a bit...then again, it depends who the next governor is!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjMptzRVjw0
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/33140/update-on-tropical-thr... So many questions surrounding the spill and evaporation and transportion to inland areas beyond the tidal zones and what effect do hurricanes have on upwelling and currunts that would bring the oil from the depths to the surface???....gonna be an tense summer for the entire region bordering the gulf: Latin and South America, Cuba and all the Gulf States and quite probably much of the eastern seaboard.
They call it stormy monday..
not a plug, just the best tropical weather site, Crown Weather. If you live on the Gulf Coast or work in the Gulf the site is indispensible.
That's beautiful! I was going to use this as my avatar, too, but thought a picture of "Turd" made more sense.
I actually have a Dimmitt's flag flying outside my bunker right now!
Explanation below for anyone curious about the meaning:
http://www.tamu.edu/ccbn/dewitt/adp/history/republic/flags/dimmits.html
I'm assuming you can only get that flag in TX? We need something like that for AZ.
I had one specially made. Cost me about $100.
Contact your local flag shop and send them a pdf of it.
"I'd rather cut off my right arm than live under tyranny!!"
I'm with ya there, plan on fighting to the end.
Hard to find it even here, and that's South Texas. It left Goliad with Dimmitt before that nitwit Fannin delivered his men to be massacred on Palm Sunday.
Mother Nature is pissed that we tracked mud onto her living room carpet.
"We" didn't do this.
BP did. And they're getting away with it still, thanks to help from their friends.
Kickin' em when they're down -- poor old BP. Time for some balance on this issue from a truly objective source:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A505w8MG0Uw&feature
LOL. OK, no more snark. While doesn't BP just cut to chase and file Bk so we can all move on . . .
"We" can't move on.
In fact, millions of people - 'us' - are eventually going to move from 'our' homes once the capitalist-poisoned economy of the Delta really begins to strangle those still living there.
If only it were so easy as clicking to a new chart. But that's not how capitalism works.
Betting against this storm developing into much... My weather people say the jet stream will be too far south to allow this system to organize into anything more than a hard rain.
3 models have it going to land and 3 have it swinging northward. It will depend on upper level winds which are just a mess at the moment. The other system if it survives some upper level shear, will probably head for Bermuda. But who knows...mother nature doesn't always act the way we want her to.
papaswamp
"3 models have it going to land and 3 have it swinging northward."
Awww, fuck Dude, Economists are now predicting weather.
Ag met and avid ZHer (since the blogspot era) here. Recon is on the way to 93L and latest hi-res visible (http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html) indicates a circulation center is getting better organized 17N 83W. Believe the hurricane hunter will find a tropical depression when they get there.
Long-term, this is more of a Mexico/Texas threat to me. Wouldn't be surprised to see a strong TS or Category 1 in the Bay of Campeche but not seeing a major hurricane in the cards.
I'm on vacation or I'd have more detail.
Ag met and avid ZHer (since the blogspot era) here. Recon is on the way to 93L and latest hi-res visible (http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html) indicates a circulation center is getting better organized 17N 83W. Believe the hurricane hunter will find a tropical depression when they get there.
Long-term, this is more of a Mexico/Texas threat to me. Wouldn't be surprised to see a strong TS or Category 1 in the Bay of Campeche but not seeing a major hurricane in the cards.
I'm on vacation or I'd have more detail.
www.stormpulse.com
click on "more" in the box and turn on the models, etc.
Great Post Tyler
All Please Be advised if you live in the gulf region within 200 miles of the coast!
This was just posted from Steve Quayle's website:
http://www.stevequayle.com/index1.html
EXTREME ALERT-MOVE YOUR FAMILIES NOW!: Inside sources have informed me that Full scale Gulf Coast evacuations are expected to begin in next couple of weeks--With Methane now surfacing and Bubbling in Florida waters the potential for a Methane Explosion of unimaginable devastation now comes into focus Further Law Enforcement Sources are being Advised of "ESCALATING VENT DETERIORATION" Two Definitions were provided to me--First "VENT" DEFINITION-"The opening in a volcano from which gas and molten rock erupt" and "ESCALATES"- DEFINITION GIVEN-"To expand step by step as from a limited or local conflict into a General NUCLEAR WAR"--to become unmanageable--You don't need a rocket science degree to read between the lines. Ten Years ago after the Papua New Guinea Earthquake in which "Burnt to a Crisp" bodies were pulled from the Fiery Seas-Stan Deyo and I did multiple Radio programs together over the years, warning of the Methane Hydrate Problems off our Coasts that could turn into "Seas Of Fire". Now maybe you can understand our warnings in perspective!. With massive numbers of Military assets being moved south it is being stated, that Martial Law initially will be on a regional Basis,. You will have no choice-- as you will be moved against your will, to places you really don't want to be moved to. Have you wondered what will become of everyones "stuff" thats left behind in abandoned homes and offices--THEY HAVE!--"To the Victors (THE NWO CROWD) go the spoils"! I encourage everyone to prayerfully consider all the above information and use your GOD GIVEN FREE WILL TO MOVE. There will be a complete shutdown of all commerce and Industry in the Areas affected by the Forced Evacuations. Don't assume your credit cards will work at this time, as a "Cyberattack" is to be Launched against the "US FINANCIAL" System concurrent with the mass evacuations that will deny access to funds--Have Cash on Hand to get you where you need to go. LIFE AS WE HAVE KNOWN IS ABOUT TO TAKE AN APOCALYPTIC CHANGE--FOR THE WORST. Now's a great time to get right with JESUS-as he told us this stuff was going to happen in Matthew 24,Luke 21 and in the Book of Revelation--May the GOD OF HEAVEN Guide and Direct those who "CALL OUT TO HIM IN REPENTANCE AND FAITH". —Steve
Do you think this guy would be willing to speak at the Rotary Club meeting next week?
and here's the title of one book this guy has written.
a total fruitcake.
Aliens and Fallen Angels: The Sexual Corruption of the Human Race.
I guess he missed the news, Jesus got struck by lightning and burned down by the side of the road.
I would like to help set some things straight poorold.... please open your eyes to truth it is all around you.
Is a fruitcake a person who believes in "Truth"?, I mean the real version of truth as these days truth is a liability. I think Pontius Pilate questioned Jesus once in this regard, hmmm "what is truth". I guess then your groupthink mentality applies to myself and others who believe in God and Christ as Lord and Saviour. I am guilty as charged as well...
Angels are real just as well as Fallen ones are very real (satan and his ilk as they were cast out of heaven - 1/3 of them) See Genesis in the Bible, Also take special note to the of the Nephilim. May God Bless you.
Sorry to burst your bubble dude, but there is no credible evidence that this Jesus guy ever really existed.
Napalm? BP has gone too far...
Got marshmallows?
Could anyone guesstimate has to how many people this would effect; in the scenario put forth?
"200 miles of the coast!"
At least the gumnut is prepared...plug 29.97213,-81.660047 into Google Earth
Only thing missing is UN insignia.
LOL yeah the image date on Google Earth is Jan, 3, 2008. The website I got the coordinates from - http://silverbearcafe.com/private/06.10/gassed.html
...has photo with UN insignia. Be interesting to find some more recent photos....
99% chance Honduras gets a gaping hole from Switzerland inthe world cup match this afternoon
Yophat. What is that?
Lots of vans or suburbans is my guess.....
What we have here, is a communication to failure.
Let me share this again from earlier posts over the last week:
June 26-28 Gulf coast/Florida region, thunderstorms deluges, tornadoes/waterspouts, followed by flooding later. Tropical Storm forecast with 80% confidence. - Piers Corbyn (weatheraction)
Starting soon and over the remainder of this year the oil volcano will place pressures of irresistible magnitude on the populace forcing the relocation of tens of millions of Americans, creating chaos in America. Poison air and gas clouds will be visible even within the mainstream media. -HPH
The currency crash/unemployment wave kicks off beginning June 28, with markets shaking quaking event. The currency woes of July will build to a crisis point of insurmountable proportions by August 1, and the crushing economic reality will come shining through for all to see. This summer will be the absolute last peak in the markets structure, while this fall will be three months of vomiting. The summer debt explosions go to such heights as to create massive overwhelming hyper-inflation in Fall that sweeps across countries globally with such ferocity bringing down governments. Riots and mob unrest will become a regular news story as the currencies are shredded publicly and planetary panic to buy precious metals overwhelms the censors in the propaganda press. June 28 provides the flood word for the precious metals, as well as the floating away of silver from gold. New reorganized currencies will not gain support and will be laughed at when introduced. The metals, especially silver, will from June 28 onward express their own destiny separate from the currencies. -HPH
HPH ?
halfpasthuman dot com
weatheraction dot com
Clif at HPH also makes a good argument that HAARP has possibly been used to keep a high pressure front over the gulf ever since Katrina. If you watch the weather patterns ever since then, the storms roll in and sort of just bounce off.
Problem is that the Ohio River valley area relies on those gulf storms for a lot of their moisture, so they may have to let at least one big storm in this year to balance things out.
If this all sounds crazy, see the History Channel "Weather Wars" for some historical (and current) background on weather manipulation. Here's a snip:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3gKa0z7rjM
tyler, cyclones are in asia. They are called hurricanes here.
+1
I believe the terminology is hurricane for northern hemisphere, cyclone for southern hemisphere. They rotate in opposite directions. But if so, even the weather service got it wrong.
Don't forget the typhoons.
This information is from the WEB Bots Project:
Predictions Of Oil Disaster
By Clif High
6-24-10
Interview at rense.com from last night that discusses some of this, too:
http://rense.gsradio.net:8080/rense/special/rense_C_High_062410.mp3
Here's a link to the best summary article I've read on the methane aspect...
http://www.mi2g.com/cgi/mi2g/frameset.php?pageid=http%3A//www.mi2g.com/c...
"tidal problems to impact the offloading of ships in ports."
Wrong tide. They are talking about the tide of. No we won't unload this ship for 1000 shares of GLD ETF.
I think the bigger fear is that people evacuate when they don't need to - due to the near hysterical fear oil will burn a hole in their skin and give them immediate cancer.
Snarkolepsy,
I think those here at ZH may be a bit hypersensitive to the horrific potential outcomes
from GOM oil gusher and that is from a position of fact and knowledge (to the extent that is possible). However, the average coastal resident is oblivious to the risk to life and property this new game changer has become. Trust me we move very slow here in the south and Katrina was not even able to light a fire under our asses. They will panic in fear as you state but not until it is too late. Thanks for your post...
"Those who Panic First Loose the Least" and It is justified to panic now!
I live on Fl E Coast and will think about panic for a year or so.
I 75 North and I 95 North will be parking lots if everyone panics at the same time.
If your tag ends in an even number, panic on an even numbered day... My tag ends in an odd number so I don't have to panic.
@ exaengr:
Hurricane - Atlantic
Typhoon - Pacific
Can Mexixo sue BP if/when this destroys their coast?
Certainly. Here you go:http://www.bobbreck.com/
Now an 80% chance and the second has risen to 20%. Both are heading northwest. If this keeps up the Gulf of Mexico could get double the trouble meaning the same for BP stock.
Tropical Depression #1 bitches!