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Because the best way to celebrate the all clear on the economy as presented by the "phenomenal" NFP data is to not participate in the guaranteed rally.
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I did my part by proudly not participating in the rally. I also didn't buy an iPad. Consider it a sales tax strike, bitches.
You forgot to mention the great ISM and Pending Home Sales data. All that awesome news out there and no one buying the market. Of course, no one seemed to be selling either.
we are now 27 for 31 on SPY for the first day of the week since Sept 2009. that is an 87.1% success rate if you had opened positions in SPY at the end of the week since Sept 2009 (and closed on the first day of the following week). average gain per SPY trade in that time period is 0.7%!
call it data mining if you wish, but i believe the penny landing on heads 99 times in a row means both sides of the penny have heads on them.
whether it is mutual funds, futures ramping, or a bull market is up to you to decide.
this is the other truly idiotic part of whats going on this notion that as long as "things are getting better" stocks go up
GDP grew 7% in Q4 1987 -- we dont have a prayer of growing that fast during this year -- market somehow managed to crash with all that "robust growth"
know how fast GDP grew in Q2 '00? 8%. somehow defying belief the nasdaq dropped about 20% that quarter, on its way to an ultimate 50% drop.
but look at the bright side at least we are levered in a way that has no relevant historical precedent so that should make for much smoother sailing this time around
The problem with low volume is that manipulation becomes easier... so when the correction day comes, if ever, the market will fall 10% from the absurdly ridiculous level to the mere fucking ridiculous level. It'll still be overvalued.
Today's low volume is a record for this year that probably won't be broken until tomorrow.
LOL
I posted something similar somewhere else so this sorta a dupe apologize but I wonder if this isnt why volume is so totally non existent - isnt this sorta check mate for this whole zirp thing?
oil is already $87 - oil is higher than any price it traded during 2007 - unemployment averaged around 4.5% in 2007 give or take, unemployment is 9.7% today (in theory)
this whole inflation deflation debate i have never really understood because the answer seems pretty clear, we getting both - anyone who thinks you dont get inflation when you print record amounts of money, well, make sure to remind yourself of that when it costs $120 to fill up that SUV you just bought with a transfer payment the rest of us funded
and wages just went negative for the first time in who the hell knows how long, so pretty clearly if youre one of the 83% who can still find employment, well you pretty clearly see that check in your hand deflating, dont you?
so here we are - leave ZIRP and all the stimulus in place, you can bet your ass we are looking at $4 at the pump this summer, right around the time all those census workers who were "employed" (ie, on the receiving end of $23 an hour transfer payment from the rest of us) find themselves unemployed once again - and take this same logic apply it to steel and copper and everything else if you think price of anything you want to buy with your deflating paycheck isnt going to go up a lot, well you probably work at cnbc
stocks are up like 75% from the lows, oil is up about 75% from lows what exactly has been accomplished here? the few people that own a lot of stocks are feeling great while the other 90% of the population gets crushed under the weight of higher gas, electric, home heating, etc etc bills?
but hey the 200 day moving average is upward sloping so im sure all of these intricately complex and seemingly problematic relationships have been totally digested by the same stock market that couldnt quite figure out that when bernake said subprime was contained, maybe he overlooked a thing or two
Oil is up much more than 75% from the lows.
Easiest anti-dollar trade I made in my life.
yeah i dont know was just using the front month contract was $50 in feb 2009 low $87 today = 75%'ish
i think Mish said it best a year ago when he said that ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) will lead to inflation in things we need (oil, food, etc) and fail to cause inflation in assets we own (houses, cars, etc). stocks are the one exception so far.
regardless, that is not a sustainable situation.
"Shit, but I have to wait for the dip! There will be a dip....THERE WILL BE A DIP! Shit maybe no more dips?" - Stockbroker Joe
"No more dips." - BS
everybody can see it is a bluff of a bull market and they are just waiting for the other shoe to drop which is now on the FEDS foot. Yes 6 TBTF banks were "saved" and a lot of retail stores are in there for one more round (according to todays stock prices ) at the expense of the entire nation .Demand for bonds are disappearing while gold climbs under attempted manipulation ....Houston we got a problem
They will not let this market go down. Too much at stake for the bankstas and polticos who now don't care if you know it is one big ponzi scheme.
The dow should be around 6,000 but I bet by years end it is over 12,500.
Hey, nobody is afraid of a Ponzi scheme on this scale. US citizens are first in, first to get paid, and will be first out and the foreigners will get all the nukes they can eat when the fraud boils over and things get tense.
Seriously. We cannot lose.
/sarc
I agree . The cartel of banking gangsters and their affiliated propoganda ministers cannot allow long T-bill yield spikes or a major equity downturn to occur under any circumstances. If they falter badly in either category, all the other schemes unravel quickly and viciously.
It doesn't matter that the Ponzi is getting stale dated or that attention is starting to laser in from the traditional media.
Despite the effort, other playerz in the worldwide network will eventually ( and probably suddenly ) move the world closer to legitimate value discovery.....oil, foreign discord, etc. Until then, the CBs, TBTF banks, ratings jokers and bean counters will manage and manipulate. They are all in with a losing hand, yet won't toss until the last card is flipped.
I don't totally agree, because oil and gasoline prices are the real wildcards here. I can guarantee you that $4-$5 per gallon prices will do more political damage than Dow 12,000-- or even Dow 6,000 for that matter. Why? Because EVERYBODY at middle class and lower will be faced with reality at the pump. Maybe half of that same cross-section will give a damn about equities. Our so-called "leaders" best chance on tame oil prices is to coax the Saudis to "mini flood" the market with excess supply. Good luck with that one...
What is correct is that the Fed will likely do whatever is necessary to keep bond/mortgage yields low becuase (a) low coupon Treasury financing is essential on future new issues; and (b) lower mortgage rates will allow housing to stabilize. As we've seen, the Fed can control the long end and mortgage spreads to a certain extent-- but it can be a very expensive endeavor.
Anybody who isn't trading hates America.
OT: Record civil penalties levied against Toyota today. Whoopie! goes Government Motors, "don't mess with The New GM; the Pacific Fleet are nuclear-armed, bitches."
$16.5m fine is a drop in the bucket for them.
But the blood is in the water now. A few billion later, a few more tactical FBI raids for the media to flog, and it will be over. Virtually an act of patriotic duty at this point.
Unable to compete on either a technological or quality basis, The New GM will leverage their chokehold on the taxpayers and their reach into Congress to try and kill off their competitors using the public security apparatus and the courts. And the Unions will back them up, as will Rust Belt government reps at State and Federal levels, representing 20% of the voting population manufacturing 50% of the country's exports.
There is divergence between bond funds and stocks that I'm watching.
high-yield corp bonds: JNK started selling today.
http://i.imgur.com/Ez788.jpg
high-grade corp bonds: LQD been selling off for some time now.
http://i.imgur.com/at6Zp.jpg
1-3 year fund been selling off
http://i.imgur.com/mDFKY.jpg
10-20 year tres fund, dropping the floor. looking to buy it around 81.50
http://i.imgur.com/5vZ74.jpg
IQI muni fund that I'm watching just sittin'
http://i.imgur.com/VEcI3.jpg
Mortgages funds seem more or less alright, sitting. CMO is scraping the floor, very possible that buyers can step up.
http://i.imgur.com/gEyvx.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/GdYAU.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/9Wr4V.jpg
Lots of buyers suckered into equities over the past six months, check. Hedgies bidding up commodities, check. New accounting and bank regs in place for our real friends, check. Treasury needs to float a lot of paper, and Ben needs to cap the irrational exuberance. Time for a sequel of the Fed's classic movie, Takedown-08, pulling the plug in 3...2...1.
WHOA... HOLD IT!!!
Let's see if Wells Fargo, Citi, or BofA needs another capital raise first.
Any more monolines need ka-ching from the kitty?
Alrighty, then... pull that plug when the coast is clear.
Record low volume because everybody spent the day learning their new iPad no doubt.
Soooo 2007. Seems some people did learn something from that jam job. Rally on selling amongst yourselves boys, we be waiting.
Business was slow for us today, I'm guessing loads of peeps had a longer easter weekend.
Anyone else notice that in his interview with MHFT last month, Charles Nenner called for a cycle top on the S&P around 1187? Not only was this the close today, it bounced off of this ceiling at least a dozen times during the session. Now, don't get me wrong, i'm not going to leverage up and go 5,000% short. Just thought it was interesting... Is this in an important technical level?
Didnt he also call it at 1125?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/star-technical-analyst-charles-nenner-calls-market-top
SPX 1187 is 61.8 of the diff between the 1120 (50% retrace) and 1228 (61.8% retrace).
I wouldn't read too much into one day's volume. Yes, there was a NFP effect, but with europe switched off + easter hangover (some peole on hols, etc).. lets see what happens tomorrow, if the trend continues for days it might be signaling something.
ONE DAY? Are you kidding me? This has been happening (higher highs on shit vol) for M.O.N.T.H.S!!
comment moved
The bankers are taking that cheap money courtesy of the fed and throwing it in the market and in oil also.
So...the FED had a Goldilocks day- neither buying or selling hardly a thing. Probably they were very sidetracked buying up the Treasuries all day. And from the stellar news from the media yapheads all day I would have imagined the DOW was up a few hundred. I wonder what the FED will do with the stock markets tomorrow? Seems latey they need a bit of print down before they melt it up again, 50 points down on the DOW should do nicely for Wednesdays futures ramp.
And dont forget mines are still out there to step on. Heres a big one- any day now apparently they will declare new massive taxes on energy, Id just LOVE to see gas at $8 suddenly one morning across america....RALLY ON!!!
Obama to Crush Economy with Massive CO2 Taxes as Early as Next Week - BlackListed News
Well at least the NY Fed has our boys risking life and limb to keep the opium flowing in the Land Of Rocks & Things.
If there was anything to learn from covert ops running cover for the drug lords in LA in the 70's is that why stop in LA? Let's take that racket big time. Let's buy the entire US Congress.
Dillon Read & Co. would be proud.
<political revolution> or die.
The snow thats the reason. Its melting causing massive flooding. Shorted out millions of computers everywhere, but only the ones with short positions.
Wednesday we have consumer credit. I am looking for an increase to match the amount of "reduction in savings" that was just reported, my theory being that a few folks have been frugal, paying down their balances, but needed to tap the credit cards for some essentials. Another form of stimulus ended too - unemployment checks for many hundreds of thousands, who were told by Rethuglican senators " sorry man, we need to balance our expenditures now."
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH suckas.
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