Luscio Report Finds State Tax Receipts "Losing Momentum" In February

Tyler Durden's picture

With everyone focused on municipal developments following the recent muni scare (although with muni outflows dropping to the lowest in months per the latest ICI data, it seems the panic may be over... of course this is at the expense of equity inflows as we had speculated some months ago) the latest news out of the Lucio Report are likely to be carefully scrutinized by the municipal investment community.  According to Reuters: "Fewer U.S. states in February hit the mark on forecasting receipts from withholding taxes compared to January, a sign that a recent rebound in revenues may be slowing down, an economic newsletter said on Thursday." The summary from the report: "Around the country results were mixed," said the Liscio
Report, which takes monthly surveys of states' tax receipts." Will this add more fuel to the Whitney fire? Look for inflection points in the MUB to find out.

From Reuters:

In February, 74 percent of the states surveyed met or exceeded their tax forecasts, down from 82 percent in January and from 79 percent in February 2010.

"Our contacts in two ... states thought receipts may be losing momentum -- leading one to say the economy just doesn't know what it wants to do these days," the newsletter reported. "Although these states will likely end the fiscal year at target, receipts probably won't keep up with the pace set earlier this year."

The housing bust, financial crisis and recession hit states' revenues on all fronts, creating budget problems. Even after three years of spending cuts, tax hikes and getting help from the federal government, states still face budget gaps totaling $175 billion.

At the end of 2010, revenues began to come back, but many governors, state legislators and economists worry that the pace will be too slow to have a significant economic impact.

Surely, all these are signs of a stable and improving economy...on the back of $3+ trillion in monetary and fiscal stimuli.

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Misean's picture

Increasing the nominal cost of necessities to boost state coffers...You go Benny!

alien-IQ's picture

definitely bullish...definitely definitely bullish. markets should rally on this....definitely definitely rally on this....almost 3 o'clock. time for judge wopner. definitely gotta watch judge wopner.

ghostfaceinvestah's picture


House Republicans are pushing the Obama administration to move forward with a controversial law that, if enacted, would require every state to issue nationally standardized identification cards to its citizens.

alien-IQ's picture

there will hopefully come a time when Americans unite and collectively say to the government "Would you please remove your dick from my ass?"...but that day does not seem to be anywhere in the near future as far as I can until then...stock up on lubricant because this is gonna hurt.

chistletoe's picture

they are already being issued all over.


These "ID cards" include a unique, identifying number,

and a tracking device which tells big brother (and Google!)

exactly where the person is, 24/7.

It also keeps track of the person's bank accounts, emails, contacts, friends, purchases, and so forth.


Best of all, the person has to PAY monthly for the priviledge of having it!!!!!!

Rogerwilco's picture

A 2% ramp in equities trumps boarded windows on Main Street any day of the week. Move along comrades, nothing to see here.

Weisbrot's picture

let me know when the suicide pills get handed out

Misean's picture

Message for you sir---GACK!--

irishlink's picture

None of this matters. AAPL , NETFLIX, are all up! The developed world is in a more precarious state now than in 2008 and Mr. Market just shrugs. Why? Simple. Markets look forwards not back and financial cycles are 7to 10 yrs. How could we have another financial melt down in the next few years? We have to wait for the new crop of young investors who think "this time its different" and drive everything to the moon.  

TruthInSunshine's picture

"Equity Market performance is the new gauge for the health, strength and sustainability of  the economy."

Nothing but blue skies...


Query: How will The Bernank justify QE III if the statistics keep being manipulated as well as they have been, lately?

tmosley's picture

Let's hear what crazy explanation Spalding comes up with on this one.

Shameful's picture

Totally bullish! All that money not going to the state in taxes must be spent on GM cars and Apple products! Oh wait, that means that state sales taxes would be going up...must be buying online. Go long AMZN!

Charlie Brown's picture


Sales tax receipts tell you EVERYTHING on the demand-side (just as FICA/MED (which is not capped as FICA is capped) tell you everything you need to know on the wage-side (as opposed to politically "adjusted" unemployment numbers)).

There's a reason, you know, why the gov't prefers to use crap like "consumer confidence" instead of sales tax receipts... I mean, let's get real: "consumer confidence" is "calculated" by calling 1,596 American dumbasses at home in the middle of American Idol, and asking them to put a number next to an emotion (confidence) w/re a subject that they couldn't understand if you had a gun pointed to their fucking head.

In fact, let's get REALLY real: the average American doesn't have the economic intelligence to manage a fucking credit card, okay...?

But "consumer confidence" is up, you know...?




Sales tax receipts tell the TRUE story.

And this is a great post, Tyler.

It's a shame that other financial blogs don't cover sales tax receipts, because sales tax receipts are a direct, unfucked-with, non-"adjusted" number of plain TRUTH.

And that's why I'm here, man....

Tyler, your blog RULES.

TooBearish's picture

dood-it was the bad weather, snow, etc Easter sales will be off the scales

Steve Liesman

max2205's picture

to be sure, hardly any govt org makes there budget in real terms...they cook the books better than AIG

TruthInSunshine's picture

All they will need to worry about now (that some are scrutinizing state sales tax data) is how to get increased sales taxes on 1/2 of the prior amounts of gasoline sold, which means they will have to raise the gasoline sales (and federal) tax again.


perelmanfan's picture

"Monkeys with typewriters" is a metaphor for randomness. This ain't random... random would have a much better track record.

unionbroker's picture

 oil up abou 25% in the past few months and there is no inflation, anywhere even my 10 year old neice could figure out that it did not make sense. Oh but then she is a straight a student.

alien-IQ's picture

since we invaded Iraq...we've gone from $25 per barrel to over $100. In the same time period the $DXY has gone from 101.50 to 76.50. inflation? Dollar debasement? If the PHD's can't see it...then it must not be there...right?

We do ourselves a disservice when we ask "do they think we're stupid". If we already don't know the answer to that...then the answer really is "yes we are".

zaknick's picture


by zaknick
on Thu, 03/03/2011 - 13:17

Cant wait!

Depression recession total bust for this monster called Amerika.

I want to see you motherfuckers and your families eat some serious shit... I mean wallow in disaster land for decades... should teach you some humility if not decency! You cant take the uncouth redneck out of the... etc


die America DIE

fall into chaos. Lets see you be the one being raped... oh wait, nothing left to rape; the banksters ate your lunch you stupid, stupid narcissistic slaves


I will see you crash like the malign tumor on humanity that you are.

reply flag as junk (2) 

by woolybear1
on Thu, 03/03/2011 - 13:22

speaking of clowns...

reply flag as junk (0) 

by zaknick
on Thu, 03/03/2011 - 13:42

Thanks! You & that stupid fuck topocallingtroll just made me smile with joy!

Bozo the clown says CRASH BABY CRASH

and guess what? What the banksters have done to this economy has been ongoing for forty years (see John Williams 1973 income levels comment earlier). There IS NO WAY TO REVERSE THE DAMAGE QUICKLY nor is it politically feasible without revolution.

You get the gov you deserve, BITCHES!

Have a foul day!

reply flag as junk (2) 

by woolybear1
on Thu, 03/03/2011 - 13:55

oh my we have a slight anger management problem, we may crash but, you will come along for an even nastier ride

reply flag as junk (0) 

by topcallingtroll
on Thu, 03/03/2011 - 13:28

Having a bad day loser?

Are u just euro trash or do you have a real grievance?

Cmon...tell us how you really feel.

reply flag as junk (0) 

by JohnG
on Thu, 03/03/2011 - 13:46

Go suck shit through a tube asshole.

reply flag as junk (0) 

Isn't this last idiot witty?


stall speed captain!

Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

You must be with the chinese government:


Great system they have there, new Reserve Currency of the future, haven't you heard?


topcallingtroll's picture

If all you have to offer is hate then you must be a very small insignificant person.

alien-IQ's picture

all you need is love said John Lennon...of course...that didn't end well...

RockyRacoon's picture

How many more times are you going to post this?   I'd like to know so I can prepare to scroll past accordingly.

TideFighter's picture

The same is true on county collected property taxes to accurately evaluate and even predict the coming bond failures. Anarchism is in the air, Lucy has pulled the football back too many times. I know our county's tax collector personally. On card night, after several shots of Old No. 7, I here the fear, the desperation, of things gone out of control. The current millage needs to increase 40% even before they can pay back the raping of our county's emergency fund. They are not figuring for continuing loss of appraised value either. At thenew tax rate he will have to propose, I showed him why the vast majority of investment homes will not be worth holding onto. With a 40% millage increase and 40% loss of value, the county is just plain f'd. If I can't get a 7% to 10% return on rentals-then to hell with them. I'll just BTFD and forget it. Trade the a.m. gold fix and drink scotch. 

IQ 145's picture

 Yup. Gotta love the "losing momentum"; nice spin. sounds almost harmless.

topcallingtroll's picture

Yeah I agree.

Right now rental property for cash at the low end looks pretty good, but you gotta watch the tax rates in high tax states. In my state a forty percent millage increase would be a few hundred dollars on the low end properties. You must be in a blue state.

ebworthen's picture


The employment and ISM are fantasy.

Cotton Candy stock market "rebound" on fantasy.

Fewer people employed, fewer people with disposable income = less revenue.

Anyone thinking "recovery" or "rebound" is sipping a Martini on the Titanic.


topcallingtroll's picture

The projections were overly optimistic.

Revenue is slowly but steadily increasing.

Setting the bar too high is not a deceleration of revenue.

Seasmoke's picture

must be all the sales on the tax free internet !

Rentier's picture

This is why states are pushing for internet sales tax laws.  They tried to get one through last year but failed.  The NRF is pushing for it also to "help" balance the playing field for brick and mortar stores.

bugs_'s picture

State and local governments seem to be waking up to the fact that their fortunes are tied at the hip with the tax revenue from the former workers whose jobs they outsourced, exported, and displaced.

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