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M2 Surges By Biggest Weekly Amount Since 2008 As It Hits Fresh All Time Record
Desperation kitchen sink anyone? The M2, which up until now was merely diagonal, is about to go parabolic. In the week ending 1/17/2011, Seasonally Adjusted M2 surged by $46.6 billion, the biggest weekly increase in the broadest tracked monetary aggregate (ever since the cost-cutting associated with discontinuing the M3) since 2008. One look at the chart below indicates precisely what is fueling the endless market ramp. Furthermore, for those who realize there is a 93% correlation between M2 and gold, we would certainly recommend putting on the M2/Gold convergence trade on.
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Paulson will reign victorius again, long gold due to M2 ramp. Getting long(er) gold now more than ever. Mommy, I'm scared!
I don't get it.
I've read that debt is inherently deflationary.
Certainly, our problem is too much debt.
On the other hand, we have this.
So....does this mean that the deflationists are wrong?
I would like a serious response please.
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New trading room using ThinkorSwim opening soon.
http://www.tosfuturestrading.com/alpha.html
"U.S., Japan warned by IMF, rating agencies on debt"
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70Q8JI20110128
Euro/Yen shorts increased. That long usd is looking even better. Courtesy of TFX. Ye sTokyo.
you currently got a reverse inflation trade going on at the moment, USD bid, UST bid gold/oil sell etc. It's all China. The biggest creditor nation is looking shaky via interest rates, liquidity issues, will they hard land? Most likey. It will take out the longs on commodities short term, knock down indices as the commodity markets unwind.
the proof is oil, it slid took out gold.
the big short is the Brent trade
Look at the spread in WTI vs Brent. It's still in contago.
it will go when China increases rates in Feb...or sooner if gld breaks 1300
all risk trades are being sold and Brent is supported? Someone is hemorrhaging out of their a-hole.
Thought i'd bought the dip yesterday - now i gotta buy the dip again today??!
This is why true gold bull's have cojones....
i speak as someone, at age 8, who had his ma and pa spend his saved up pocket money to buy him an ounce of (crap 9ct) gold in 1979 for 130 quid. i sold it 25 years later for 110 quid.
Been buying properly since 2003.
i know gold can go down better than anyone, we all do. such is the path of righteousness if u catch my drift.
I couldn't agree more. But be prudent and buy the most successful level. Gold long is good. Just don't get sentimental. It is in for a drop here.
True Gold Bulls have cojones. True bulls, of any stripe have cojones.
Well said BD6.
Conviction. It's the thing that will take you through this time.
But you Sir, you take the cake, for having had real cojones since the age of eight.
I'm sure they're....errr...Golden?
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/01/27/wisdom-for-warriors-6/
Thankfully TheBernank is not monetizing the debt. But it's a really, really pretty chart there Tyler.
Clicking my heels Three Times "THERE IS NO INFLATION!, THERE IS NO INFLATION!, THERE IS NO INFLATION!!! .... Ben Bernanke..
Heck I really like the rare earth trades. And xag @ the right levels.
Appreciate your thoughts on gold.
Rare -earths have got bubble material all-over. Nice if u got the timing.
i've been watching 4 stocks for about 12 months now and got in on one - GGG in oz - greenland operation.
They have all doubled to tripled in price - but the word is that the winners will be the ones who will get into production soon - 5 years wont cut it, as rare earths aint that rare....
Hope this helps.
Why's my home price is tanked ? Iz prayin for flation in my's fattest asset
Best wishes on your trades. You are correct. Rare Earths aren't rare. They just require more processing. ggg is an ETF if I am wrong please correct me. Your thoughts on a G trade or direct mining play. thank you.
hi
i'm in australia so here we have
Lynas Corp (LYC)- into production soon, this year. i didn't buy in because the chinese own 25% so i was suspicious. Bad move, its up x3 in last 4 months due to japan contracts etc. Good concentrations.
Greenland Minerals and Energy (GGG) - potentially the biggest source of heaviest (best) rare-earths with uranium by-product. Not in production and slowly working through due process in greenland where life is laid back even by aussie standards. x2 in last 6 months.
Alkane (ALK) - gold and mainly one type of rare earth deposit in NSW , x2.5.
if no access to aussie stocks then all this may be useless but what you want to check out is
1) Close to production?
2) Heavy concentrations? they are everywhere but not in profitable conc's
3) By-products. Uranium goodish, gold better . Thorium bad - processing rare -earths is filthy and the chinese have been getting self-righteous about it recently.
i personally think the big up is over short term, but there may be another 20% there. Depends on what the rest of the market is doing eh?
Long term probably good if in the right stock.
Thank you sooo much for your wisdom and time. Let's keep in touch. Best wishes to Ya.
One last tidbit if you don't mind. Can you give me a real idea on the flooding situation, and your thoughts on the retail market trying to tax the internet. Purchases on line vs GST. Thanks I'm not sure what your time zone is. But Sydney is 5 hours to simplify things behind me. I'm in California.
Sorry, couldn't help but butt in here.....
I'm in Brisbane, Queensland, about 18 hours ahead of Cali. Sydney is on summer time, so say 19 hours ahead of you. "5 hours behind" means that you have missed a day! (smile)
The floods. The most serious since 1974, especially their impact on Brisbane (now 2m+), but everyone gets by. Coal production is, I believe, 80% of previous transit to port, and farmers are accustomed to having their drought broken by a great big flood event. So, it's basically business as usual. The water goes down, you clean out the shit, and you get on with things.
Goes for businesses as much as individuals. We are getting by, and it will be tough for a while (for all of us), but, as we say here, shit happens.
GST. Now, that is an interesting concept. Introduced by a conservative government in 2000, it has actually worked! (I opposed it philosophically 11 years ago, but now I can appreciate its nuances..) 10% tax on the end-user, but most "basic" foodstuffs (bread milk eggs and most everything not deemed a luxury like chocolate) and "essential" stuff was exempt. When it came in, there were significant tax cuts, so that most of us were actually better off.
Fast forward to today. The GST replaced all sorts of "Customs duties", where goods were valued and charged all sorts of taxes and duties on the wharf. Now, it is a simple system. If you import something that is valued at more than AUD $1,000, you have to pay 10% of the value. Simple. Up to $1,000, it is EXEMPT from the 10% GST. This is the problem the rapacious retailers are attempting to address.
Suppose I import from God-only-knows-where a 90 inch Plasma, for $1,000. If, by some miracle, it gets to me unscathed, and would have whipped through the port of Brisbane at zero GST, if the inspection officers thought that it was not worth more than $1,000.
Note well that I have undertaken a considerable fiscal risk, because if the fucker blew up the first time I plugged it into 240V, there is absolutely nothing that I could do about it.
What the big Aussie retailers are trying to do, is close the $1,000 GST free loophole. Now, bearing in mind that the MOST that could be charged on any device is $100 (being 10% of $1,000), the retailers want the Australian Government to act as their import/export agents (at no cost to the retailers, of course!), and spend God-knows how many man-hours to assess the value of an electrical item when it arrives at port to get a MAXIMUM of $100!
Work it out for yourself. It is opportunistic arseholery by the retailers.
Fuck the lot of them.
Cheers from the Antipodes, where the toilet does actually flow the other way around!
This chart is not consistent with shadowstats.com, which does not show any significant ramping of M2. One month does not a trend make. Accordingly, I'll continue to monitor shadowstats y/y changes, not the above weekly changes.
So what's the deal on PM's? BTFD or sell like crazy?
Ask rectimous maximious.
Buy three of everything.
works for me c,q, and ge.
Reminds me of the German movie 'Das Boot' (The Boat), where the crew are getting depth-charged and they frantically pump the last remaining compressed air into the ballast tanks to try and arrest the death-dive of the sinking sub as rivets pop and the hull groans, and everyone know this is it, rise, or die.
Only this time, it’s rising, but Das Boot is still dying.
The movie was better.
"Moody’s Investors Service said it may need to place a “negative” outlook on the Aaa rating of U.S. debt sooner than anticipated as the country’s budget deficit widens."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-28/moody-s-says-time-shortens-for-...
Geihtner said america would NEVER lose it's triple AAA rating.
"The M2, which up until now was merely diagonal, is about to go parabolic."
ANd why do we know for sure that the curve is "about to go parabolic." If the Fed wants a linear function on M2 then they are in a position of authority to see to it that it stays a linear function. If it indeed goes non-linear without their consent then that means they have lost control. And say what we will about them (e.g. what a pack of assholes, their policies are misguided, they are making slaves of us and on and on) nobody has ever said that they have lost control. That would be a major development which is why the probability is 99% that you are being histrionic.
Oh, I think they've lost control already!
Look at the Middle East going up in flames, look at Europe, look at the Chinese trying to control inflation, and look at the rampant pillaging on Wall Street. Things are not better since 2008.
No end in sight. No sign that the Fed is going to do anything but put more fuel on the fire. They Fed has painted itself into a corner and is on a one way trip.
"Oh, I think they've lost control already!
Look at the Middle East going up in flames, look at Europe, look at the Chinese trying to control inflation, and look at the rampant pillaging on Wall Street. Things are not better since 2008."
Like I said from our perspective their policies are misguided. However, in my opinion it is a fatal error to believe that they are anything but incredibly crafty and highly intelligent. Forget the fact that none of them has talked to a real person living under their policies in the last 30 years. They think they know what they are doing and I do not doubt their ability to enforce their will. I just happen to be of the opinion that they are so isolaed that once they succeed at enforcing their will the situation will blow up. That is the only point where they and I differ.
I like trading the parabolic sar on short term charts. Gotta go South Park is on Man Bear Piiig.
Can I change my screen name to 'Fuck Bernanke' ???
Ok usd/jpy h1 chart. the 100sma and 200sma are riding the line I have decending trend line that comes in @ 82.75 The 50sma and 20 sma are converging. I will add to my position in the 82.25 area with 100 pip stops. Long USD
How the hell do you short M2?
Gold and silver. That's all it is is shorting M2 or more precisely shorting M3 against M2.
convergence indeed. but jpm paper to gold magic demand absorption could send all the way down to... ?
silver has support near 21, no doubt, and if markets were 'truly' manipulated... i would expect multi year channels to be meaningless supports.
proving manipulation, and therefore intent, is fucking impossible
but we will run out of metal (ag), or so physics would think, and then the music stops.
who knows, maybe fofoa's crystal ball is right.
xag is a good trade. I'm guessing the 23 area. Remember it is a 5000 TOZ contract. XAU is a 100 TOZ contract. I like xag in small trades. xag is a real metal. It is used. xau is is as well, but in very limited applications.
M2/Gold I agree but only because paper controls price of gold. But it doesn't really matter. If you have Physical hold. If you have GLD sell. This is a mere interlude in the upward trend.
Every one must read and distribute as much possible FCIC report
Fraud at all levels, system broken
FCIC released the final version of its 700+ page Inquiry report, which disclosed that all of Wall Street is one big fat fraud, populated by criminals, who never go to jail, and whose settlement arrangements with the SEC is at most 1/50th of the illegally obtained profits.
Criminal Fraud Street + FED
WH/ Capitol Hill /FED are part of the loot
http://www.fcic.gov/
lol, all this happend after a fucken WAR CRIME, which we can't even prosecute those criminals.
FACE IT YOU FUCK THE RULE OF LAW WAS OBLITERATED ON 9/11/2001.
USA USA USA USA
Prosections should commence without wasting any more time
KEY players in the 2008 meltdown that brought the global financial system to its knees and threw millions out of their jobs and homes should face prosecution after the release FCIC US government report into the crisis.
hogwash, I say we just blame it all on Al-Qaeda, bomb a few mud huts, then start looking to the future, not the past.
It's what Obama would / WILL do.
Also, who is getting thrown out of their home? Most are just living there rent free.
Most of the the media has already burried FCIC report but it is the most important story of the century
I again repeat, most important story of the century
When is some Meat Ball algo going to kick in? I'm trading a m15 usd/jpy chart and it's heavy. CARTMAN HEAVY!
I think there might be a few yards(at least) of protection around the 81.5-75 area. Exporters and real money. There is a barrier and I'm getting closer to it. Just need to figure out the option size and conrtact style.
The M2 money is going a large part to China. Still not willing to raise the renminbi , the Chinese are making a tradeoff by choosing inflation over a stronger currency. By the very act of their pegging, they have chose to adopt U.S. monetary policy. They should just do away with price stickers and install little price odometers in all the shops there. In China they have a saying, "Wages go like the slow train, cost of living goes up like high-speed rail."
When the 20 crosses the 100 usd/jpy m30 IM UNLOADING.
I stand corrected. The market wants to punch usd/jpy up 30-50 pips and then drive it into the dirt. Yes parabolic sar and converging sma. A nice triangle is forming.
Now the fun starts.
See ya in NY you usd/jpy hedgies. You made my day!
Come on I need another 20 pips to hit my Real usd/jpy buy orders. Yes I carry a deep margin.
I'll believe it when we get a couple weeks like this back to back.