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M2 Update
Once again, presented without comment.
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M2 bitchez!
If you take this M2, subtract retail $ exiting the market, do you get the S&P 500 graph?
AHHH, THERE it is!
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To the moon, Alice.
Awesome! I'm buying M2's tomorrow! What's the ticker??
GLD
Physical gold is the leveraged play minus the counterparty risk.
haaaaa! +79
'79 was a good year - overall, sadly though, we just ran out of oil, this importing stuff is confusing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYkBy81zuF0
was refering to it being element 79 on the per table. oh well, its a stretch didnt expect anyone to get it.
Au, okay.
If you absolutely must keep it in an account, you really ought to buy GTU or PHYS instead.
Better yet, APMEX, Kitco, et. al.
Just sayin'.
what am i missing? isnt this a 2.3% increase in 14 months??? not exactly shocking.
It's clearly a ~500% increase. Learn how to just look at a graph.
Drheywood : "It's clearly a ~500% increase. Learn how to just look at a graph."
This graph does not have a zero based y-axis, so it might be you that needs a second look. It starts at roughly 8450 and ends at, again roughly, 8650; a difference of 200 billion. By my calculations, 200/8450 = ~2.4% increase. I'm with the owl on this, unless you want to correct the maths presented in this paragraph?
I think that you are assuming it's zero based chart (lies, lies and statistics), and are just counting the horizontal lines to get your 500%?
So, an appology is in order perhaps? Your horse looks pretty high from here.
Drheywood should have pulled out a calculator before he opened his mouth. It is a ~2.4% increase according to my math and ~3.0% from lows to highs.
Not only was he wrong, but he insulted someone in the process.. Just trying to get atop the food chain I guess.
Indeed.
I like to think that the important thing here (on ZH) is "the truth", and learning to see it. This is why I laid out the maths. If I'm wrong about this, and there is always a chance I am wrong, then I want to learn about it and find the truth. An open mind is important. If Drheywood is wrong, perhaps he will learn something instead of me.
*takes pipe out of mouth*
Well...
*points the pipe at sailysw*
...the problem is you're reading the graph. Sensible economics comes from the gut. I say again, you need to learn how to just look at a graph...
*points the pipe over at max Hunter*
...and you, you may have a fancy calculator and all, but do you have the ultimate punch-line indicator? Do you have a pipe? Do you? Didn't think so.
*Puts pipe back in to mouth and leans back*
That's forty-love, ol' fellows.
If you say so. I don't want to argue with your pipe. Not the wet end.
You need to take the crack out of that pipe and put something in there that is "legal" to burn.
Looking at the graph is indeed the key. Understanding the numbers on BOTH vertical and horizontal. The reason the graph 'appears' so steep is because the vertical increase contains small increments in relation to the values.. You simply need to put more thought into the snapshot you are looking at.
LOL... I did like your reply though.. got a chuckle..
It's hard to read sarcasm in posts sometimes. I think his original comment was, in fact, sarcastic. So, I have learnt something after all. Nice.
sarcasm would certainly make more sense..
M2 is irrelevant. All future obligations must be paid out of M1. As we issue more and more debt, M1 isn't expanding accordingly.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=M2&s[1][range]=5yrs
M2's ROC and momentum is falling off a cliff. Look at the slope and the choppy action compared to pre 2008.
Calling for inflation now is pissing against the secular winds of change... people are tired of being slaves to debt, even cheap debt. What more do you need to know? ZIRP and no takers. I'm not dismissing gold as it has its place as the ultimate insurance against bizarre fiat declarations that may come, but only after deflation is fully entrenched and undeniable. You have to look at the link above to understand M2's history before making an assessment based on the short time frame snapshot provided.
Bizarre fiat declarations..you mean like bankrupt with yields at historic lows?
When I see posts such as M2 Update with no story, I become wary that we are merely a testing ground for reaction and assessment of the elitist deemed "not as dumb or gullible as the other unwashed ones". Simply, they are focusing a magnifying glass (in this case, M2) to see how the ants move around the focal point of discussion... an experiment more or less. I also suspect that Ben Bernanke personally junks the "Bitchez" responses out of principle.
Inflation expectations are the key to FED control of the population's production and wealth confiscation/redistribution (and by extension, the US Govt through collusion with the US Treasury). They wish to understand how their actions will be perceived by those with sufficient intellect and wealth (Zero Hedge readers) to take action on their ultimate market maneuvers. Posting a snapshot of M2 is bait... shameless bait.
Seriously?
seriously deep.
Not too deep. Nice presentation. Time of day isn't perfect, but I'll still bite. Tastes like baetis to me. What's that sharp thing in my cheek?
nice cast upstream, floating nymph fools 'em everytime.
Soooo ... you'd be more at ease if he told you what to think?
Me? I'm just saying that the comments are thought provoking.
Edit: Quantamcats comments, not the piece.
Me like it when he tell me what to think. Brain hurt when it must do analysis.
Excellent post Quantum. Even if this wasn't intentional "shameless bait", it certainly behoves the authors to understand that they just might be falling into the trap of unwitting accomplice, and at very minimum, of being something short of objective with their presentation of material.
I'm seeing a lot of ranting on the net these last couple of days directed at "sites like ZH" for being too biased. Wonder why? Lots of shorts hurting badly these last couple of days?
One must at least try to keep up appearances. Caesar's wife must be above reproach.
+2;)
It may indeed be true that we are a testing ground, but so what? Let the government see the anger of the commenters here and imagine that it means something important. Always remember that to government experimenters we citizens are microbes on a petri dish, and they are scientists devising stimuli to generate an appropriate reaction. I say let them look here and imagine their latest experiment will create a virulent Andromeda Strain microbe. It's funny.
Would you be more comfortable if the title of the post was: Open Threat: M2?
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/09/government-economic-leaders-surprised.html
Their "comfort" zone is what you sought to challenge Tyler. If economics is a "dismal science" then for sure that isn't so on Zero Hedge . True science is not 'consensus' but rather the constant testing of hypothesis, theories and laws.
True science is being done in places like Zero Hedge, Naked Capitalism and Washington's Blog ,where on the other hand academia, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve has become an incestuous circle jerk of Keynesian 'consensus' that destroyed the greatest economy ever assembled by human beings.
Here on ZH, etc. is where you find scientific truth. In the Ivy league , especially Harvard, is where you find suck holes and brown noses who speak in code designed to promote them selves and their agendas , not the truth.
In the halls of government you find propaganda carefully crafted by the corrupt to give plausible deniability to the looting of our country. Right?
Tyler, IMO, stirring the pot of inflation anxiety/expectation serves the FED's goal of extracting every last ounce of blood from the portion of the populace not already nose deep in their slave paper Ponzi scheme. I'm impressed to see in your recent polling of ZH members (if I recall correctly) that a Fibonacci 38.2 or so are expecting deflation... a much greater percentage of the general population I'm sure. Even though the average Joe fears inflation, he is doing something quite different, even irrational, and we should take notice. Average working class folks are getting “Dave Ramsey” religion and applying principles of thrift... he's subconsciously figured out that eating beans and paying off debt is a road to freedom despite his nagging perpetual fear of inflation that life has taught him. Keynesian economists and MBA grads of the last 50 years never thought they would have to worry about the paradox of thrift again in a fiat currency system... they were wrong, and the Talebian Turkey is about to get his wake up call. The average Joe is on to something, and the rest of us Machiavellian market playing schmucks should take notice because he is in the driver seat (which happens only once in a saecular or Kondratief cycle). The only way to teach these government colluding, self licking ice cream cone fascists a lesson is to follow average Joe’s lead... avoid more debt and speculation. Simply pay debts, horde some cash, and yes... keep a little gold in the kitty. Perhaps the entitlement-minded wealthy AND the entitlement-minded poor will actually learn how to produce again so we can put the two party paradigm to bed for a generation or so... those fringes are their COG (center of gravity). By dismantling their weapon of choice, inflation, through thrift, we just might become a prosperous and free nation once again.
Where is all of it? I looked in the sofa cushions and the cookie jar...nada.
Over there by the bathtub...
Shh. They buried all on the set of Lost. When the statute of limitations runs out we'll go dig it up and reset the code.
Mark to model, FASB exemption, pixie dust yada yada. Just binary's, not to worry...
"Where is all of it? I looked in the sofa cushions and the cookie jar...nada."
Where is all of the money? In the bank(s), where it belongs.....
Weimar Republic, bitchez!
Soon that will be what the hourly chart will look like.
Can you say "Zimbabwe"?
someone called?
Rhodhesia
Is M2 a solar stock ...?
I think M2 is the ratings of anyone running against our current clown squad in DC.
i have no idea what M2 is, but really happy for all the excitement.
Spalding,
+1000, Chinese at that!
I love the smell of fresh money in the morning, it smells like...Zimbabwe
tis not zimbabwe... not in the next 2 yrs given my employment and money velocity outlook
IMHO, money velocity and employment impact inflation, hyperinflation is a different beast caused by lack of confidence in the currency. Despite the shared root of the words, they are very different beasts.
The only instance(s) that hyperinflation has ever occured was under the supervision of a central bank, or, a kabal of central banks.
So define it as you will but anytime 1 person has a monopoly over money, and credit, it ends in a shit-show.
The same applies to hyperdeflation otherwise known as a depression.
Looks like it's time to finally unbox that home bread-maker machine I got for a wedding gift years ago...
I'll bring my ice cream maker.
bring, my rice cooker.
I'll bring my still
me bring the herbs
vaporizor.
Huh?!
I was saying that I would bring a device for smoking marijuana. Don't really know what one looks like or how it works. Don't even know if the reference to herbs was correct. However, i can't imagine that someone would be bringing oregano to a still party.
Village Idiot : it's called a bong, and it works by passing the smoke through water to cool it and to filter it. Of course, if that's too complicated you can just roll it into a cigarette paper, with or without tobacco (mostly with), and then it's a joint. I'm sure you have heard of that. Wiki is your friend.
I would say go out and try some. Then, at least for an hour or two, you'd really know what being a Village Idiot feels like. It's not bad, for short spells! Hahaha...
Oh, how embarrasing, I thought a vaporizor was some sort of new invention for smoking pot! I was imagining the pot being vaporized by some sort of electronic device. A bong? I used to collect those things. lol.
You are right. Vaporizers remove the "smoke" and deliver pure hits of pot to smoker. I like the sound of this party. Where is it and when do we get started? Get with it people are you really so old and moldy that you don't know what a vaporizer is? They are pricey too, @$500. Considered a "medical device", tax deductible in med marijuana states. Should check out the stock prices in those companies, I think the main brand I see around is made in Germany.
have medical marijuana card, have medical marijuana, need vaporizor.
hey ZH, is my medical vaporizor. VI, i have slept 7 full hours for the last 3 nights.
s u c c e s s , combination of ZH contributor's guidance, education, learning, booze and garden growing.
Sounds well balanced to me. maybe a "carnal" component? It's like a muscle you know - have to keep it exercised.
yeah yeah I do my part, for sure. it is the other half that doesn't keep the dip stick straight. or whatever.
If your dipstick isn't becoming to you, you should be coming to me. Saw a version of that on a hair stylist's card once. Replace the word dipstick with hair. In your case, dipstick is more appropriate, though.
your wigged out. no pun intended.
wormwood baby wormwood
w o r m w o o d, oh baby!
Velocity is utterly irrelevant.
Monetarism is wrong, Friedman was wrong, the entire fucking Chicago school is WRONG. They did not understand the fundamental nature of OUR monetary system.
These morons failed to understand that the INTEREST inherent in our money is a parasitic deflationary drag that will implode it as a matter of basic mathematics if credit stops growing.
This velocity bullshit? OK, so those with money ALL rush in to buy the SAME THING. That's a basic supply and demand issue. The money is transferred to the producers...wtf, they're going to rush out and spend it too? Transactional volume does not inherently affect prices! Only supply/demand imbalances do.
Nearly ALL of economics is a FRAUD. Not one of these goddamned hacks seemed to understand that their stupid MONEY ITSELF is a supply and demand instrument.
+10
"This velocity bullshit? OK, so those with money ALL rush in to buy the SAME THING. That's a basic supply and demand issue. The money is transferred to the producers...wtf, they're going to rush out and spend it too? Transactional volume does not inherently affect prices! Only supply/demand imbalances do."
<<...run out and spend it too?>> Yes, that is what happens. And yes THAT is what is refered to as monetary velocity, caused by a lack of currency confidence, not by printing.
Hyperinflation does not require additional printing, although printing usually happens in the mix. Hyperinflation just requires a revulsion toward the currency, a confidence crisis.
The language "supply and demand imbalances" and "monetary velocity" contain much of the same concepts. As in they are inclusive rather than exclusive.
As in (summary), they are talking about the same thing as you are.
they understand that if they dont obediently repeat what the others have said they will not get promoted, always remember the reasons for their actions.
++
I've been saying this for a couple years now since I took the time to understand it.
We are in a system that impedes the masses from creating and retaining wealth in order to keep them and their children working all of their lives.. And yes, the system uses interest to accomplish this crime and self cannibalism.
this country is F R A U D †
smells like my sty when those folks don't slop it out, that's what it smells like. - Ned
On a % basis this isn't that big of an increase, right?
Good call. No, it isn't a very significant increase, as YouAreBliss notes a bit lower.
Using 8400 as the baseline for the graph makes M2 growth appear more spectacular than it really is. It's an old trick that analysts often use to get attention that isn't really merited. (It also allows TD to sound ominously wise when writing, "Once again, presented without comment.")
ZH often presents interesting commentators and useful insight. It also frequently presents inflammatory hokum, pointless rhetoric and sometimes outright spurious info (for example, that twaddle the other day about Zhou Xiaochuan).
One has to read ZH with twice as much skepticism as the MSM. Which isn't at all to say that ZH isn't extremely valuable.
when tyler is found drowned in his jacuzzi one day, this would fit nicely on his H1-B readership sponsored headstone....once it is translated into Spanglish of course....
... "that twaddle the other day about Zhou Xiaochuan" ...
Ya, what is half a trillion $ among friends ?!
the fact that it increased at all is what scares me. We have people defaulting left and right, not to mention credit contracting, and M2 increases....in the middle of deflation?
Stock up on grocreries while it is still cheap, they are about to get yet more expensive.
M2. I used to take that bus to the Jamaica ( Queens ) Bus terminal
You have my condolences , sir.
i am in love
I could swear I used to take that line to the upper east side ... you must be talking about an express line.
This angers me.
I checked with my 2 year old little boy. He said he's looking forward to being an indentured servant to the new-age elite. It's no biggie. It's only debt slavery. What's the worst that could happen?
Wasn't that the bitchy lady in the James Bond movies...I might be lost.
I now very little about reading a chart, but if this were a Rorschach test I am clearly seeing two balls and a cock, beginning sometime around May.
Cut or uncut? I'm not a turtleneck guy, myself. But, I respect religious freedom. It's all cool.
Cut or uncut?
"Rorschach test"
I was thinking a naked old woman shivering, seeking shelter under an ice ledge.
Hmmm...maybe some latent feelings of h.......
Oh never mind, I don't need CD crawling around inside my head...LOL.
I see dead people.
I see opportunity.
I like that image.
Death is a growth industry.
no this is.
Men’s Cosmetics Becoming a Bull Market
men playing with face paint. obviously something is missing in their lives.
about time we get a serious war effort going.
camou' time!
best captcha ever 66 plus ? = 66
ZH, thanks for the challenge.
go away i am
like faustian said, embalming's good bizniz
good urnings?
w/ positive ash flow
ICBM
Still laughing.....
Laugh of the day. Thanks much.
ma deuce baby with a dash of API
The trajectory looks like a two year gold chart without the gut checks...LOL.
Looking good, Billy Ray!
Feeling good, Louis!
ball, trajectory
honest. ball trajectory is a beautiful thing.
I want to take you higher!
When is the new $10,000, $100,000 and $1M note being released on a CNBC.com slideshow spot? I love that shit.
If it's not backed by gold and silver, it could be a 1T note and it would still feel rough between your butt cheeks.
Are the security features extra absorbent?
Rumor is the $10K note will be two-ply.
Like fartin' through silk, that two-ply is.
your simply awful.
awful good kc.
heres some of it - LOL
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/02/wyoming-man-donates-m-defend-arizona-immigration-law-court/
Ah, reminds me of the slopes at Jackson Hole.
I think I might have an idea of what agreements they came to.
slopes of the H O L E.
man, there are definitly snow snakes on the slope's of the
H O L E
And the last M3 on shadowstats (July) shows that it hit a plateau in July and started trending upwards slightly. Looks like a stop to deflationary pressure to me, for the moment at least.
For the less mathematically inclined - that's a whopping 2.7% yr over yr growth rate. Not exactly Zimbabwe of the Weimer Republic as some of the less astute comments have indicated. It needs to be 10-12%.
Fed needs to announce a 3% inflation target - what ever it takes, and hold Fed Funds at ) -then watch the fun begin!
Well, you have to get to 2.7 before you get to 10 by my math. Better yet, let's look at the rate of increase and the slope of the increase...we can deduce when we hit 10 percent really quick-like.
I'm not very good at numbers, I just have a MS in Mechanical Engineering, so I hope you can show me the way. I have to admit, I only achieved a B in multi-variant calculus and differential equations. Please take it slow and be gentle.
He was goin for the whole slit wrist is better than a sucking chest wound thingy...I think.
He looked at a snapshot of two and failed to see the last ten...a 23% loss of buying power.
It's all good...we're less astute...or sumpin...LOL.
"Well, you have to get to 2.7 before you get to 10 by my math"
Well do you a'recon?
You remind me of the Quants who blew-up the financial system, with your physics envy. Well multi-variant calculus genius, MS ME wonder, take a look at M3. What's your 2nd derivative saying about that?
US money supply plunges at 1930s pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7769126/US-money-supply-plu...
It seems your D0-brane just screwed your tachyon into the 10th dimension (Super-Symmetry String Theory - nature of reality stuff). Oh by the way the tachyon has a mass of the square root of -1. Just like your economics imaginary!
M3 falling, M2 rising...I love the smell of inflation potential in the morning
Oh yea math wizz - did you ever hear of smoothing? Ya' know like reaal simple moviing avveraaagers.
This one time. I solved 12 differential equations in a day. And it made no difference the next day.
Thats because your actions opened a worm-hole. This is actually a different dimension, you just didn't notice the shift
No I invented an undifferentiating differential equation with partial differential subplots. This created a war between equality and infinity in the self and other components of the equation. That could only be fixed by running a vector transform of ascendend masters into a new kind of pi. Humble pie with noose around it's neck.
" I have to admit, I only achieved a B in multi-variant calculus and differential equations."
(what a DICKKKkkkk)
Doesn't matter.
The Fed is only going to print the coupon for now.
gold supply will continue to decline.
Hell breaks loose when we fall off the oil production plateau. THEN is when your "money" starts to get less worthful because all of it in the world cannot create more net barrels.
In a future showing contraction, debts now MUST be discounted. They lose moneyness and with them other paper claims, of which the FRN is one.
trav777,excellent comment.
Both Gold and oil in peak production.
Friends here at ZH take note!
...
Of course for the more paranoid lot of you (inc. me), you could include physical possession of physical Gold as well as water, food, prescription drugs, etc. in case things get REALLY BAD.
NEVER Pick a fight with people who buy Ink by the Barrel....
Never pick a fight with someone protecting their children.
No more ink, just a secure T1 line and a keyboard. "How many zeros in a trillion, Ben?"
Do not fear, this is America !
I'm still partial to the M16. It would jam if you didn't keep it clean, but when you put it on rock and roll, it made mincemeat of Charlie Cong.
I was thinking a newly developed tank.. the M2, to replace the M1 Abrams..
Damn acronyms! :/
edit: nevermind, they already have an M2, the Bradley..
So this must be the sales figures for M2s?!
"So this must be the sales figures for M2s?!"
M-2, as in Mr. Brownings M-2? Belt-fed, air-cooled and 50BMG to boot!
Benelli M2...inertia driven. Sweeps the home better than a swiffer.
How long does it take to spend the dollars in M2.....does it have a measurable duration?
"How long does it take to spend the dollars in M2"
Apparently, one congressional session ;-)
So long as U.S. and China remain locked in mutual embrace, and no exogenous event triggers worldwide phase shift (shaking the beaker), the monetary base can remain in solution indefinitely. Low interest rates can apply additional heat to up the saturation point, but ultimately, the ability of the parties to trust each other its what keeps the wheels turning.
The only thing that can bring the house of cards down imo, is the monetary implosion of Japan, which, of course, has been successful in suspending disbelief for going on 20 years now.
RR