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Mack-Cali Chairman: "Commercial Real Estate Is Somewhere Between An Orderly Massacre And A Disaster"
Just in time for Goldman to upgrade the entire REIT space to a screaming buy.
Some points from Willam Mack:
- The value of real estate from the top is down anywhere between 25% and 75% (or more)
- The hardest hit in the CRE "food chain" is raw land, after that hotels, office, retail and industrial. Least affected i multi-family residential (don't tell Stuy town residents).
- The consumer confidence reflation propaganda machine will take a long time
- The CRE crisis will hit a pinnacle when $500-700 billion of re-equitization becomes needed in a few years. Where that equity will come from is unknown as the US will need a lot of foreign investors to achieve this equity bubble reflation, and they are not there due to a foreigner-unfriendly investment regime.
Also, someone should probably clarify to Mr. Mach what "hide the salami" means (looks like Ms. Quick is somewhat familiar with this particular piece of jargon).
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Anyone noticing that S&P at high of year and VIX in the green after being red for most of the morning?
Surely you're not suggesting this rally could be phony? Preposterous!
Didn't notice the VIX, but did notice most Real Estate indicies were up over +2% this morning.
CRE is up again today. Don't get how anyone thinks these deals are not going to blow up. Although the WSJ had an article on banks using new rules to allow them to break up CRE mortgages into "performing" and "non-performing" portions. Can you pay off the mortgage on you bedroom while letting the garage go back to the bank? After all you can always park the car in the street. More accounting wizardry to save the day!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125789937631442503.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
Accounting Wizadry exactly. The plan is to treat CRE just like non-perfoming residential RE, foreclosures, and every other loss - Simply push it into the shadows and off the balance sheets. Same process they have used with $600 Trillion in Mark to Zero Derviatives.
I still don't understand why any of the big 19 banks declare a loss and lower guidance. Shouldn't every single one of them be declaring massive unprecedented profits and raising guidance to the moon? I mean if you don't have to actually 'acknowledge' or 'account' for any losses, then how can they be losing money?
Tim Geithner is a filthy rotten LIAR
dh,
Geithner supports a strong dollar at the same rate that Kristy Alley supports Jenny Craig.
thanks lizzy!
I am just so fed up and disgusted with all of the USA's lies, deceit, fraud over all of the years of my adult life.... i genuinely hate thinking and saying this, but I do not have much hope for the future of the usa. it really is turning into quite a cesspool.
I pledge allegiance to the Banana Republic of the United States of America.
Timmay a lair?
Only because he says exactly what Uncle Jamie and Aunt Lloyd tell him...
What do you call lovers who practice the pull-out method of birth control?
Parents.
Let's raise a glass to all those who hope to pull out of CRE investments before it's too late.
Tommy,
FANTASTIC.. this has to be the simplest best explanation to date as to what is going to happen.
They may be a little pregnant.
Here in Massachusetts, there plan was to build "hollywood east"
Not anymore...
Construction Funding Collapses
http://www.patriotledger.com/business/x1659498133/Plymouth-Rock-Studios-...
"Where that equity will come from is unknown"
Surely you jest. Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geithner, aka the ever generous American taxpayer/saver will of course provide the equity. $700 billion a problem, don't be silly. This is all completely anticipated and will be taken care of in fine fashion.
Note that the savvy producers did a quick cut to Ms Quick on the salami comment.
No fools they. And Becky obliged with an ear to ear grin.
Does Becky Quick's hair ever move? She looks like she is peering out from under a hoodie.
Probably her pubic hair does.
perfect 50% retrace of the entire downmove on dow
10335...and rejected...if anyone is interested
bullet
all by design...all by design...
now, we just have to get spx to that same level, 1120 i think is the target.
"what "hide the salami" means (looks like Ms. Quick is somewhat familiar with this particular piece of jargon)"
I bet she is, but not with the likes of Mr Mack.
Its a Travishamockery! Its a Disassacre!
Ha, love his response when asked about the bubble. 75% or greater losses and you think things got slightly out of hand with lending? Jackass. Need foreigners to invest (see: suckers, fresh) to reinflate real estate? Jackass.
Guy is a total bankster without even realizing it.
if all this requitization is coming from FC who is underwriting annual dollar depreciation, man thats another major headwind for values
If we can goad foreign investors into owning both U.S. gubmint debt and U.S. commercial real estate.......CHECKMATE !!
Nice thought for Veteran's Day.....when we honor those hundreds of thousands of military who sacrificed their lives for American liberty.
when you understand it and research it and read it and think on it, no veteran has ever sacrificed his life for american liberty since the war of 1812.....for all intents and purposes all wars after that one, were unconstitutional and unnecessary and men died for nothing. of course if you tell some old fossil that fought in ww2 that, they get all mad and pissy about it. how dare you say such a thing? you are being unpatriotic....well what odes it mean to be a patriot? to go with the flow? to do things that are wrong both morally and ethically? to die for nothing in foreign lands where we are not suppsed to be? for too long, we have drank the coolaid and never asked why? i am sick of my young men and women marching off to war, so that my country continues to be indebted to the bankers and the military industrial complex, all based upon lie after lie, after lie, after lie. after almost 8 years of war, one would think that these idiots that got sucked into this silly mindset of fighting and dying for liberty by attacking innocent arabs, and afghans, would finally come to their senses and realize they have been scammed, they have been lied to, they are being used and it is not ever going to get better unless they take that first step and that first step is.....just saying no.....no damn it.....no......
I hear if you register, the soapboxes are made of oak. "My young men and women"? Is that you Uncle Sam? Go kick us some Fed ass so we don't end up in WWIII over the biggest lie yet.
"Where that equity will come from is unknown as the US will need a lot of foreign investors to achieve this equity bubble reflation,..."
So, let us recap:
Tyler: "equity bubble reflation"
Mr. Change: "get credit flowing again..."
Bennie Bernak-ster: "preserve long-term price stability..."
Timmay G: "substantial uncertainty about the path of asset price movements going forward..."
"choice is between which mistake is easier to correct: underdoing it or overdoing it..."
"Monetary policy itself cannot sensibly be directed at reducing imbalances..."
"Most consequential choices involve shades of gray, and some fog is often useful in getting things done." Blah,blah,blah...
Shades of gray and some fog? That would encompass most of Timmay's thinking...
Once the socialist agenda is enacted, the administration will turn on Wall Street and this market will crash. The Administration is supporting Wall Street to accomplish its real objective.
Rainman,
That would be MEmorial Day when we honor our war dead.
Thanks.
Yea, Multi-Family is the safest, not like these guys put WAY too much faith into diversification benefits of Multifamily, especially in a 10%+ national unemployment picture, with much higher pockets, yea, no problems here...
Equity comes from 4 places (1) earnings, (2) capital markets, (3) filing/defaults, and (4) coercive out of court equity-to-debt exchanges. I'd bet on debt holders getting the salami to save equity holders and go with option 4.
i gave up on this clown when hestarted going off about stupid fucking brain dead consumers
the best part was when ms. quick said "so you would say that we were in a bubble then?" seriously, was that question necessary? couldnt you come up with a better probing question? i guess not. it is cnbc after all.
Interesting article
Twila Martin
RE/MAX Professional Group