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A Majority Of States Are Now Insolvent: Quantifying The Disastrous Unemployment Situation

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Update: the Friday, January 29 report was released and our expectations were low: total January Unemployment Insurance Outflows were $14.4 billion, essentially right on top of the December number.

Zero Hedge recently highlighted the ever increasing Federal outlays on unemployment insurance, leading to questions on whether the true unemployment rate, as indicated by actual cash outlays, may be materially higher than indicated in increasingly dubious governmental reports. One proposed alternative has been that the Federal government is directly subsidizing standalone states' depleted unemployment insurance trust funds. Using data provided by ProPublica we have been able to confirm that indeed standalone states are for the most part now bankrupt and have no reserves left in their coffers when it comes to funding ever increasing insurance benefits. As ProPublica indicates, there are now 26 states which have depleted their trust funds, among these are the usual suspects including California, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio, which now rely exclusively on borrowings from the Federal government to prevent the cessation of insurance payments to recently unemployed workers. Currently all states collectively posses $10.7 billion in trust fund assets(with the bulk held by less impacted states such as Washington ($2.6 billion), Louisiana ($1.1 billion) and Oregon ($1.1 billion). On the other hand, 26 states currently rely exclusively on the Federal Government, and have borrowed a combined $30 billion through December to fund payments. ProPublica estimates that another 8 states will be insolvent within 6 months, as their trust funds also approach 0.

The chart below demonstrates the amount of borrowing per state, as well as trust fund holdings.

Another way of visualizing the damage can be seen on the following chart which highlights

The most bankrupt states are California, with $6.8 billion in borrowings, Michigan ($3.4 billion), New York ($2.4 billion), Pennsylvania ($2.2 billion) and Ohio ($1.9 billion).

A chart demonstrating the collapse in California's trust fund, coupled with the relentless increase in the state's unemployment rate, together with Benefits paid out and actual Revenue gained (if any). Note that the April/May tax revenue collection spike, unlike in prior periods, did nothing to boost the trust fund in 2009.

So what is happening on the Federal side of the ledger? Recall that in December the government spent $14.65 billion in Unemployment Insurance Benefits, which was a 24% jump from the $11.8 billion in November. How is January shaping up? Through January 28th, the Federal Government had spent a total of $13.85 billion for this outlay. Once we get the Friday additional data, we will update our previous chart" we expect the final number to be about $14.1 billion, roughly in line with the December total. 

At this point there is no question that the vast majority of the hardest hit states now subsist exclusively due to the generosity of the Federal Government, which in turn, courtesy of a 50%+ indirect take down of each and every Treasury auction (now that QE is over), is at the full mercy of foreign investors, yet as we pointed out, their custody holdings at the Fed have started declining. If the government is unable to finance its profligate ways, and today's budget announcement by Obama is just the icing on the cake, look for states to gradually reign in unemployment checks whether they like it or not, which would likely lead to some very interesting demonstrations of the broader population's lack of solidarity with Mr. Blankfein's $100 million, or whatever it may end up being, bonus number. Our advice to California readers who believe they are owed a refund: file your taxes ASAP - the market for IOUs still has to be properly securitized by JP Morgan.

 

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Mon, 02/01/2010 - 14:38 | 213468 Gold...Bitches
Gold...Bitches's picture

Its Greece all over the place.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:17 | 213539 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

lets smash some White House dinner plates

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 07:49 | 214521 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

And then head on over to Finance Street for some more smashing?

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:39 | 213579 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Greece is the ward. CalifornikatIOUn.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:46 | 213717 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

The % of Greece to the Euro currency is SMALL BEANS as compared to the % the Republik of Kalifornia is to the USA's dollar currency. Then add in other States PLUS their future retirement fund obligations...

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 14:40 | 213472 master_of_puppets
master_of_puppets's picture

so i should get unemployed real quick before i miss out???

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:05 | 213517 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Tempting, isn't it.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 18:16 | 213875 Yophat
Yophat's picture

Unless Congress extends it again (entirely possible)...the cut off for the Fed side of the unemployment funding (not state loans) will end July 31, 2010.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 14:44 | 213475 CoopDeluxe
CoopDeluxe's picture

Where is Project Mayhem???

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 14:54 | 213503 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Maybe the killer ukrainian super-flu got him.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:19 | 213636 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

+1 LMAO

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 19:40 | 214020 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

+111 LOL!!!

Or maybe the black helicopters finally came for him...

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 21:12 | 214179 Lou629
Lou629's picture

I think it was something more along the lines of this:

The black helicopters found his bunker and deliberately released the Ukrainian killer flu bug on him, while the WHO and MSM remain criminally silent in their conspiracy to not report it.

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 11:18 | 214424 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

OH LOOK! Lou is back!!

Hi, Lou!!

Seemed like the last time I saw you it was the disinformation you were spreading!

You can't seem to post something without mentioning tin foil or black helicopters. Why dontcha' come up with something original for once!! Or get the Fuck outta here.

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 11:30 | 214677 Lou629
Lou629's picture

WW

Good to be back, and you're still an asshole i see, but i missed you while i was on vacation.  BTW, when you become a forum administrator, then you can tell me what to do.  Go fuck yourself otherwise. 

As for disinformation, you're the one defending the likes of PM, so you are hereby awarded the Goebbels prize for truth in journalism. 

Wed, 02/03/2010 - 12:38 | 215925 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

+1

My avatar is a disclaimer. But avoid my counsel and pay the price. At least I don't repeat myself every other post.

Wed, 02/03/2010 - 19:46 | 216562 Lou629
Lou629's picture

Well howbout'dat?  You've gotten to a point where now you think it's only every other post.  Better be careful there W2, next thing you know, you'll be finding yourself agreeing with me on something or other...lol...

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 14:45 | 213477 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Uh. Oklahoma has not had much unemployment yet tax revenue is down so badly that they fussed for weeks about how to save 10 million lousy little dollars to keep from firing several police and fire department people. They could probably actually let about 20 to 30 useless cops go though. So even if unemployment shows gray on these states they got other problems.

I saw a funny news clip where one city was going to spend several million dollars to advertise the need to raise taxes because they didn't have enough money.

Michigan is just a kind of fucked that has never been dealt with by anyone outside of a war zone where you were losing badly.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 14:59 | 213507 WaterWings
Tue, 02/02/2010 - 00:31 | 214384 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Well watched the news tonight. 600 million dollar rainy day fund. 555million of it going goodbye next year. Hoping that things pick up and those numbers won't be so dire but people will re-entrench harder and make that fund go poof.

Great depression II Quit Harder. When your angels come to take you back home. Tell them to get lost. The only way to beat relentless stupidity is through relentless quitting. The one in control remains in control. Till they control nothing.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 23:23 | 214303 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

i am all for getting rid of useless cops and that
begs the question of whether useless cops is
a redundant pair of words.

Wed, 02/03/2010 - 07:51 | 215694 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

certainly "oxymoron" makes "redundant pair of words" somewhat redundant

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 14:46 | 213479 Stranger
Stranger's picture

What difference does it make? It all goes on the Federal Government's infinite credit card.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 14:51 | 213492 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Until the federal credit line gets closed by China. And they aren't happy about the Taiwan development.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:06 | 213518 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Rosetta Stone: So we can say, "Yes, Master" in the appropriate language...

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:10 | 213625 Stranger
Stranger's picture

The Federal credit line is the Federal Reserve Bank. Even if the Chinese close their account, the Fed will keep extending credit.

That is how it has worked in every other country.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 18:14 | 213870 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Until the Arabs shut the oil off.

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 11:12 | 214655 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Haiti has a huge potential for oil. Possibly bigger then Venny with all that unexplored territory with three tec plates constantly shifting underneath.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:04 | 213515 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The Federal Government has a Chinese issue credit card. And purchases earn us reward points on Chinese merchandise.

Is that how the world works?

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 00:59 | 214408 harveywalbinger
harveywalbinger's picture

The Chinese hate it, but our organized crime racket is more powerful than their organized crime racket.  We've got world reserve currency status.  As long as that's the case, we control the game.  We win.  That's the way it is.  Until it's not, then we're fucked.  

I say "we" as if to say we peasants get to participate in the looting.  If only it were so...  All the peasants can look forward to participating in is getting bent over...  

I'm pretty sure that's how the world works.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:28 | 213559 Steak
Steak's picture

Were that the credit card actually had an infinite limit...

Off topic but i couldn't resist given your namesake:

<As if that blind rage had washed me clean, rid me of hope; for the first time, in that night alive with signs and stars, I opened myself to the gentle indifference of the world. Finding it so much like myself — so like a brother, really — I felt that I had been happy and that I was happy again. For everything to be consummated, for me to feel less alone, I had only to wish that there be a large crowd of spectators the day of my execution and that they greet me with cries of hatred.>

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 20:09 | 214086 Dantzler
Dantzler's picture

R.I.P. Albert

Sarkozy should leave him be.

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 01:38 | 214435 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Stranger - Great point.

Uncle Sap - "Another round for all the states. Sure boys, its on me. Hey, Maestro, keep playing the music. I want to hear "Wait til the sun shines Nellie". Louder! Louder!" 

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 14:48 | 213484 Trifecta Man
Trifecta Man's picture

Hey mister, could you stake a fellow American to a meal?

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 14:52 | 213496 Whizbang
Whizbang's picture

It's amazing to me that you can fund 20% of the country's unemployment for less than 5% of tarp outlays. What the f*ck?

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 14:52 | 213497 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Great post. Clear, cutting, and concise.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 14:52 | 213499 SDRII
SDRII's picture

look at transfer p[ayments in the most recent "personal Income" numbers - up $14B m.m

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 14:54 | 213502 Hammer59
Hammer59's picture

Where is Project Mayhem? I checked his web-site, and he has'nt made a posting for over a month. Miss his insight.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:20 | 213544 John Self
John Self's picture

Or at least his splashy pictures that were vaguely suggestive of some insight.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:23 | 213552 JR
JR's picture

So do I miss his insight, his cut to the core of political and economic nonsense.  This Week in Mayhem was one of the most powerful, courageous layouts of basic truths and clear thinking that we had going for us.  Every episode was a brilliant performance!

God help us if Project Mayhem has put aside his keyboard.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:40 | 213581 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Nah just carried away by black helicopters. Not so sure everything was "brilliant". A lot of it was a re-hash of ZH articles and a roundup of info readily available on other sites.

that being said, props for the effort.

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 10:57 | 214642 Kissy Ass
Kissy Ass's picture

He got to Level 3 ID'ing The Reston 6. You have to be a ghost when you get to that level or you don't survive.

(HAARP, boiling water in large underground aquifers, earthquakes for sale).

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:05 | 213516 JR
JR's picture

The famous New Deal opponent Albert Jay Nock wrote that the power of the State increases because of three "principal indexes”:

 

  1. Centralization.  “Practically all of the sovereign rights and powers of the smaller political units…have been absorbed by the federal unit.”
  2.  Extension of bureaucracy.  “The pressure of centralization has tended powerfully to convert every political aspirant in the smaller units into a venal and complaisant agent of the federal bureaucracy.”
  3. Erection of poverty and mendicancy into a permanent political asset.  “All that was needed to organize these unfortunates into an invaluable political property was to declare the doctrine that the State owes all its citizens a living; and this was accordingly done.  It immediately precipitated an enormous mass of subsidized voting-power, an enormous resource for strengthening the State at the expense of society.
Mon, 02/01/2010 - 23:26 | 214307 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

thank you for this outstanding nugget....i am
unfortunately taking an american history class
where an assigned reading is a hagiography on
the new deal and fdr as though that drum hasn't
been beat into pulverization....

i am currently reading rothbard as an antidote
but now i have some icing on the cake.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:07 | 213523 NRGTDR
NRGTDR's picture

Maybe this info will accelerate the "Flight to Safety" to the security of the greenback bunker. LOL...."Flight to Safety"....

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:09 | 213524 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

An additional thought to those that have not yet
been layed off (or who got laid off and took a
lower paying job and haven't been laid off from
that yet):

Don't factor the availability of unemployment
into your plans.  The "states" will have to
"reign in" the outlays.  Now that the first
"10%" have received their extended-extended
benefits and depleted the funds, upcoming
first time filers may not be able to obtain
their entitled relief from the UI ponzi.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:41 | 213588 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I disagree. The illusion will be maintained at all costs.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:14 | 213533 crzyhun
crzyhun's picture

Yah, but taxes are going up...that should help!

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:19 | 213542 ReallySparky
ReallySparky's picture

My business laid off some people last year, I see the unemployment benefit statements come in and my heart just cringes.  I knew these people and what their lifestyles were like.  Heard the stories of their kids, yadda, yadda. As a business owner, I always hated paying the taxes, and felt ripped off when I fired some lazy or dishonest SOB, and they got benefits.  Now when I see those statements, I am secretly glad that I paid those taxes.  It hurts that I can't provide employment for these "good" workers because of the economy.  I cringe because I know that based upon the benefits that they are recieving, they must be close to starving.  Sad, really sad.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:21 | 213547 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

The most bankrupt states are California, with $6.8 billion in borrowings, Michigan ($3.4 billion), New York ($2.4 billion), Pennsylvania ($2.2 billion) and Ohio ($1.9 billion).

States which furnished the most troops for the invasion of the Confederacy:

  • New York: 448,500
  • Pennsylvania: 337,900
  • Ohio: 313,100

How do you like your almighty government now? 

 

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:24 | 213553 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

ZOMG!

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:34 | 213571 Stranger
Stranger's picture

Get over it. Do you think the French still complain about role of East Prussians in the loss of Alsace-Lorraine?

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:44 | 213592 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

They probably do, those goddamnn useless Prussians!

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 17:52 | 213831 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

was auch immer, scheissekopf! don't forget that the prussians trained washington's troops at valley forge and was a force multiplier because of that for the colonial troops...

Gott mit uns...

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 20:05 | 214076 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

If not for Baron Von Steuben America would almost have certainly lost the revolutionary war and the institution that is the Non-Commissioned Officer Corps of the United States Army would not exist in its current form and function.  We agree on that anon being a Dinksbumps!

Tschuss

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:45 | 213713 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

No more than some French families would complain about the First French Republic..  If they could.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 23:42 | 214330 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Of course not, because France took Alsace-Lorraine away from Germany after World War II, and France still occupies it.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 23:57 | 214345 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Of course not, because France took Alsace-Lorraine away from Germany after World War II, and France still occupies it.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:43 | 213591 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

That's only because Kali wasn't yet a state back then!

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 17:08 | 213757 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Date California admitted to the Union: Sept. 9, 1850

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:16 | 213632 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yes. It was a mistake invading the South. They would have been America's Mexico, without the threatening skin tone. O well.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 17:37 | 213796 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

More like another Canada, but with more individual liberty.  De jure slavery was ending anyway, now we all have debt-peonage slavery to the Wall Street (Yankee) banks, don't we?  Even if I don't want to borrow money, the goddamned government borrows it in my name, signs my name on the loan, and sends me a payment book called "Form 1040".   It's the new plantation, and you'all don't get it, do you?  Think with your brains, and not with your Yankee history books.

 

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 18:17 | 213876 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

One could argue that Canada owes its very existence to the civil war.

Had things happened differently, and British North America remained a forgotten, frozen outpost in the larger British Empire, it's not hard to imagine a scenario where manifest destiny made its way north of the Great Lakes.

(Britain granted Canada nominal independence in 1867 partly in response to the events to the south)

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 19:49 | 214041 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

And before that the successful American revolution encouraging many Crown supporting colonists to depart for points north after 1781.

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 07:14 | 214508 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yes, of course this is true, but the loyalists fled to what was to become British North America; "Canada" as a (nominally) independent country only happened after the civil war.

It's likely Britain would have set Canada loose at some point regardless, but the timing was a result of the civil war (notice that Newfoundland only became part of Canada in 1949)

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 18:42 | 213912 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

+10
I think it was the real Bob Marley that said something like "you took the chains from off my feet and placed them on my mind"3

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 19:21 | 213939 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Here, in the midst of the searching of souls and the gnashing of teeth the delegates of this convention, harassed by the rash actions of a belligerent usurper and the radicals of his party have stumbled into cession.  God knows I, and many in this chamber have resisted it.  But, how can there be union when a section of the country wants to impose its will through coercion?  Now that we face the armed might of the United States....

Could have been spoken this very day... The primary differences being that today there is only one political party in the United States and as noted, slavery is now the norm in all 50 states and every other nation that has been sundered and incinerated by the Yankee bankers.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:38 | 213695 Hammer59
Hammer59's picture

Fuck the Confederacy.

America works best when it says "Union?....YES!"

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 17:35 | 213799 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Yankee public schooling at it's finest.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 20:03 | 214071 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

+10 again SWR. Unions evolve to the end game of the same corruption they are fighting...
Thanks for your thoughts/posts.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 17:20 | 213776 Marley
Marley's picture

I love my country just fine, thank you for asking. 

"I'll tell you this

No eternal reward will forgive us now for wasting the dawn" - The Doors

 


Mon, 02/01/2010 - 22:15 | 214237 Budd Fox
Budd Fox's picture

Hey..I thought The Confederacy opened fire on Sumter first!!

You harvest what yo sow...don't you ?

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 06:34 | 214498 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Ah yes...the good ole days....

When men were men....and blacks were 3/5 men....

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 08:38 | 214533 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

I am not free from suspicion: I am apt to entertain doubts. I rose yesterday to ask a question which arose in my own mind. When I asked that question, I thought the meaning of my interrogation was obvious. The fate of this question and of America may depend on this. Have they said, We, the states? Have they made a proposal of a compact between states? If they had, this would be a confederation. It is otherwise most clearly a consolidated government.

The question turns, sir, on that poor little thing — the expression, We, the people, instead of the states, of America. I need not take much pains to show that the principles of this system are extremely pernicious, impolitic, and dangerous. Is this a monarchy, like England — a compact between prince and people, with checks on the former to secure the liberty of the latter? Is this a confederacy, like Holland — an association of a number of independent states, each of which retains its individual sovereignty? It is not a democracy, wherein the people retain all their rights securely. Had these principles been adhered to, we should not have been brought to this alarming transition, from a confederacy to a consolidated government. We have no detail of these great consideration, which, in my opinion, ought to have abounded before we should recur to a government of this kind.

Here is a resolution as radical as that which separated us from Great Britain. It is radical in this transition; our rights and privileges are endangered, and the sovereignty of the states will be relinquished: and cannot we plainly see that this is actually the case? The rights of conscience, trial by jury, liberty of the press, all your immunities and franchises, all pretensions to human rights and privileges, are rendered insecure, if not lost, by this change, so loudly talked of by some, and inconsiderately by others. Is this tame relinquishment of rights worthy of freemen? Is it worthy of that manly fortitude that ought to characterize republicans? It is said eight states have adopted this plan. I declare that if twelve states and a half had adopted it, I would, with manly firmness, and in spite of an erring world, reject it.

You are not to inquire how your trade may be increased, nor how you are to become a great and powerful people, but how your liberties can be secured; for liberty ought to be the direct end of your government.

- Patrick Henry, 5 June 1788

 

Even those who HAVE studied history are doomed to repeat it, when they are surrounded by complete idiots who haven't.

- Me, Today

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 11:17 | 214659 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Excellent!

I honestly thought that you had penned the statement until 2/3 through and I noticed PH at the bottom. This was as excellent as your transistion from Hobbes or Locke (?) to the Declaration of Independence some time ago.

Wed, 02/03/2010 - 21:07 | 216624 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

WW - Agreed.  Again I stand illuminated and educated from the efforts of SWR.

Mon, 02/08/2010 - 10:30 | 222060 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Too goddamned funny here: this Yankee makes states' rights noises, talks about the federal government overreaching, and early in this vid he says the United States is a "confederated republic." 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RB03MEw2_4c&

He can start by apologizing for furnishing troops to invade the sovereign Confederacy, which was founded on the very principles he espouses in his vid. 

We did this once before you goddamnable morons.  Sam Rohrer, where the hell have you been?  In some kind of public school-induced trance?

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:24 | 213554 Tic tock
Tic tock's picture

About the only solution left is to forcibly borrow bank assets and promise to return the assets, er, later

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:30 | 213561 chet
chet's picture

"with the bulk held by less impacted states such as Washington ($2.6 billion), Louisiana ($1.1 billion) and Oregon ($1.1 billion)."

Less impacted by population maybe.  Oregon has had some of the worst unemployment during this recession.  Rivaling Michigan for awhile.  Since this state is a constant fiscal fubar, it's nice to see we're doing better by any measure at this point.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:36 | 213576 Narcolepzzzzzz
Narcolepzzzzzz's picture

The Geography of a Recession:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9jBNyysbho

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:41 | 213587 Steak
Steak's picture

I think this is an appropriate place to break down the Obama "jobs" bill as passed by the House:

Total bill: $174 billion 

  • $41 billion for emergency unemployment extensions
  • $36 billion for roads and rails
  • $24 billion for state Medicaid assistance
  • $23 billion to pay teacher salaries
  • $20 billion for the highway trust fund
  • $12.3 billion for health insurance extensions
  • Total of items listed above: $156 billion

All said n done, it is just another bailout of the states.  Wash, rinse, repeat.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:49 | 213602 docj
docj's picture

And the only thing that's surprising about this is how spectacularly unsurprising it is.

But I'm sure this "stimulus" bill will work as well as the other "stimulus" bill.

Meaning, of course, that we're totally freaking screwed.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:45 | 213597 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

These are the signs of the times: Cities Going Bankrupt (http://crisismaven.wordpress.com/2010/02/01/bloom-of-doom-iii-cities-goi...). By the way, I have just added a Reference List(http://crisismaven.wordpress.com/references/) to my economics blog with economic data series, history, bibliographies etc. for students & researchers.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:50 | 213603 Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

This mess only gets worse at the local levels in the years to come as real estate gets re-appraised to lower values for tax purposes.

I wonder how people will react to paying 5, 10, 15% of their property's supposed value on an annual basis in property taxes to support bloaded beauracracies.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:19 | 213637 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

That is where a major crackdown must occur. There are an absurd number of city and county level employees here in Chicago and Cook County making 75k-200k per year, in jobs that should really be paying 50k-60k. They are horribly over compensated for what they do. A lot of these people are perked out to the max, as well, all on the taxpayer dime (municipal employees with 'corporate credit cards' and expense accounts!).

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:41 | 213705 Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

Not to mention pensions.

I laugh (cry really) when I think of us local private sector stiffs paying taxes into a system  chock full of so much bloat that it will never balance itself out without floating more and more bonds.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 19:14 | 213962 Rainman
Rainman's picture

+100. Public sector excess grew under the radar. Insane growth the past decade. Like a parasite, it is now choking the life out of its malnourished taxpayer host.

The government tail wags the taxpayer dog.  

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:58 | 213611 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Miami is essentially bust and bankrupt. Yet it agreed to build a 2.5 billion $ baseball stadium for the Marlins. Baseball: a sport that americans no longer play or watch or attend. Is this logical? are we the moron capital of the world?

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:48 | 213727 Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

Stadiums kill me.  How about NY/NJ building 3!

The worst has to be a $200 million HIGH SCHOOL in Newton, MA. I think that's Barney Frank's district.  A fuckin $200 million high school!

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 17:47 | 213824 ShaneAshton
ShaneAshton's picture

As a former Miamian..y'all get what you deserve.  Its like fantasyland down there.  My favorite is all the half built skyscrapers and the rich expatriates thinking they can still flip condos.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:03 | 213621 walküre
walküre's picture

Does anyone have insight whether or not "carbon offset" is showing as an expense on any of the states budgets?

Imagine the outcry. States can't afford to feed people because the money is going into a scam. Torches and pitchforks would be the least of their problems.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:07 | 213623 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The only reason they are still paying UI is that the 20% of the populace currently unemployed amount to an army larger than the armed forces of the US of A. Were it to become known to a larger extent that 16 million people were going to lose the "lifeline" that is UI, the result would certainly put a crimp, a monkey wrench, a sabo and whatever else they could get their hands on, in the works.

As was so eloquently pointed out earlier, control of the masses by providing federal care for their needs, ensures the continued life of the federal government. If you don't take care of the masses, the masses will take care of you!

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:55 | 213738 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"As was so eloquently pointed out earlier, control of the masses by providing federal care for their needs, ensures the continued life of the federal government. If you don't take care of the masses, the masses will take care of you!"

At least until the means to take care of the masses no longer exist.

Not even the Romans could provide bread and circuses forever.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:20 | 213639 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

It's fun watching the states get screwed over by their very own bought and paid for fedgub reps. The states are hosed and the congreffcritters couldn't care less. More bankster bailouts baybee!!

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:34 | 213679 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"All roads lead to... Detroit."

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 18:20 | 213882 Yophat
Yophat's picture

Couple cities in Kali now have higher unemployment than Detroit.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 21:54 | 214218 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

But they lack the charm.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:37 | 213691 Gimp
Gimp's picture

$ number is becoming irrelevant. Government will just print more money, fiat currencies have no backing therefore constraints. This is just a game of numbers now. How it ends, nobody knows but you may want to pick-up Rosetta Stones Mandarin course just in case.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:38 | 213692 Gimp
Gimp's picture

 " I meant "no" constraints".

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:38 | 213694 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Red is a good choice for coloring the map, as it is signifies communism.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:58 | 213740 Slewburger
Slewburger's picture

Finally something California and Texas have in common.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 19:17 | 213969 Rainman
Rainman's picture

....you mean Texas doesn't have crooked politicians ? :)

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 00:36 | 214390 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Don't fuck with Texas. Out of shape people won't run.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 17:22 | 213781 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

When the checks (or electronic payments) start to arrive late that'll be the cue that there's trouble brewing. Just imagine Uncle Ben as a slow pay!

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 17:47 | 213823 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

"Oh no thay dinnit!"

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 18:33 | 213898 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

They'll just blame the unemployed for being late paying tax on their UI benefits. Wonder how they're going to pay?

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 17:24 | 213785 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

In order to sell QE 2.0 Obama needs a W
No

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 17:44 | 213815 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

ugh...that california graph looks just like the heart rate monitor flatlining.

 

beep...beep...beep...BOOOOOOOOOOOOOP

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 18:02 | 213850 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The way it works is much more cut and dry. Federal unemployment extensions expire at the end of February. Without an act of congress there will be no more unemployment insurance within 6 months, and the majority of benefits will trickle to a standstill within 3 months.

Remember there are more Americans currently on Federal unemployment than on state-cosigned unemployment.

Acts of congress have been progressing as extensions for all states equally, so most likely none of these state budget shortfalls will translate into problems with benefits.

If congress does not act by the end of February, there will be enormous outcry. Republicans will be blamed as the culprits, and the ones in competitive districts will have to show up and vote yes to something for the first time this legislative session.

Federal unemployment will thereupon be extended. Budget shortfalls and deficits have no impact on the legislative process until it is far, far too late.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 21:05 | 214171 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I agree. If citizens get hungry and homeless, they will seek justice on the ones responsible, and they definitely know whom to blame. So it is especially important for our politicians to feed and house their constituaences by extending unemployment benefits for a while longer. They are riding a large, grumpy tiger.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 18:13 | 213869 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Greece is the word
It's got groove it's got meaning
Greece is the time, is the place is the motion
Greece is the way we are feeling

Greece is the word
It's got groove it's got meaning
Greece is the time, is the place is the motion
Greece is the way we are feeling

Greece is the word
Is the word
Is the word
Is the word

 

("turd" may be substituted for "word" at one's discretion)

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 18:19 | 213880 BaronG
BaronG's picture

Great. Remember how CA also started taking 10% more in state income tax from each paycheck? This wasn't considered a raise in taxes because CA would pay it back at the end of the year. Thus, the issue wasn't voted on! So now I'm essentially loaning CA with no choice and no interest earned. I love San Francisco, but this state is retarded, bankrupt, and ridiculous. 

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 18:24 | 213887 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Just adjust your withholdings on your W-4 to take home more $$$.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 20:06 | 214079 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

"The harder they come, the harder they fall, one and all." -Peter Tosh

Man, when I think about how much the doelarr is going to get it over the next couple years, then I think about how JPM was issuing IOUs to Kalifornians, and how JPM is issuing the food stamps....wait, JPM is running the money?  Hmmm...wait....wow!  so they already ran the doelarr into the ground and are already using alternative currencies!  boy is the doelarr gonna get it!!!  soon!  like February 11th.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 20:42 | 214137 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Another Great Article.. Good Job...Trouble ahead..

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 21:25 | 214191 JimboJammer
JimboJammer's picture

Tyler  ,  Good  Job...  Jobs  are  hard  to  find... 

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 22:15 | 214238 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It is just going to keep getting worse for all the states. Here is a picture of the problem for Illinois (http://chartfacts.com/chart_frame.php?cid=1676).

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 22:39 | 214259 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Chicago says they are broke. But they built the Bears a free 2 billion$ stadium. That was intelligent. WHy dont they pay for the players salaries also?

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 00:04 | 214353 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Shut up, they probably will end up doing so. Chicago's government is a predator. It exists to extract money from residents and workers people in as many ways as possible, and then redistribute the wealth to those holding the favor of the Daley machine. Think Mafia with lots of lawyers. Whoever called Chicago "the City that works" could not possibly have lived here.

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 00:47 | 214397 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Easter Island part deux.

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 01:26 | 214426 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

part deux: The Hatching

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 22:51 | 214271 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

sounds like everyone should lock 'n load and hoard gold coins and rice.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 23:35 | 214318 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

so is there a way to use this data to compute the number of unemployed? the answer is yes but i am too lazy to do it or figure it out....

this calculation could probably confirm or contradict the the u-3 number....the fall in income tax receipts could probably confirm u-6....

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 14:35 | 214928 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

OBAMA and Bernanke are featured in a movie-- about greedy hedge funds called "Stock Shock." Even though the movie mostly focuses on Sirius XM stock being naked short sold nearly into bankruptcy (5 cents/share), I liked it because it exposes the dark side of Wall Street and revealed some of their secrets. DVD is everywhere but cheaper at www.stockshockmovie.com

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Karston1234's picture

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