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Man it’s hot!

Bruce Krasting's picture




 
Something like 200 million people are sweltering in the US today. Where I
am we have had four short power outages. Every time it happens I think,
“Is this the big one?”

It’s not just hot on land. It’s hot in the ocean. In particular, the Gulf of Mexico is getting very hot.

For years I monitored ocean water temperature at buoy #42001. Not any longer. When I checked today I found this. R.I.P. 42001.

I did get some partial data from a nearby buoy #4204. A comparison of water temperatures over the past eight years:

The conditions today have not been seen since 2004. A question to ask it what kind of hurricane season was 04? Bad, is the answer:

The
2004 season had 16 tropical depressions, 15 named storms, nine
hurricanes, and six major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). The Accumulated Cyclone Energy figure of 225 ranks this as the fourth most active season since 1950.

August 2004 was incredibly active, with eight named storms forming during the month despite a weak El Niño emerging during the summer. In an average year, only three or four storms would be named in August. The formation of eight named storms in August breaks the old record of seven for the month, set in the 1933 and 1995 seasons.

Note that a condition that existed in 2004 was a weak El Nino. What do we have today? A weak La Nina. It is predicted that the cycle will complete sometime in July. We will revert to a weak El Nino (we may have already achieved that)

The odds point to big storms in the Gulf over the next 60 days. Here’s hoping we beat the odds, and the heat.

 

 

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Fri, 07/22/2011 - 22:50 | 1483995 Sambo
Sambo's picture

The next big one is going to hit Jekyll Island...

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 22:51 | 1483998 Sambo
Sambo's picture

....and with some luck, it will be a Cat 5 just when the banksters arrive.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 22:38 | 1483969 lbrecken
lbrecken's picture

I have seen it warmer in pasy years..........

 

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwnc.gif

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 20:43 | 1483527 Marin Homeland
Marin Homeland's picture

Meanwhile, in Marin, it's been a hot day, around 74 with clean ocean air and clear skies. Now the fog is sweeping in over Mount Tam and the temperature is dropping down to a nice clean crisp 57 or so.

30 miles east of here it's in the 90s. Marin is god's country. That's why the hedge fund managers chose to live here. Not me, I just mock them and their latest trophy wife.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 18:29 | 1482895 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Thats what I've been telling my coworkers about how warm the gulf is getting from this bubble of heat.  The longer it takes, the hotter the water will get.  It's sucking in the heat and not only that, when winter gets here we may see alot of moister coming from the gulf because of the higher than normal temperature.  And that will lead to snow storms with high precipitation.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 18:25 | 1482868 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Do you also follow the tides? What time will the high tide go out at Oyster Bay?

How about the TEPCO radiation levels in California?   Orgeon?   Hawaii?

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 16:59 | 1482565 mynhair
mynhair's picture

We in SW FL choose not to participate in hurricane season this year.  Can't speak for the rest of the Gulf.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 16:53 | 1482540 Salinger
Salinger's picture

Not much action in the GOM/FL in recent years so it's overdue for a direct hit - since Wilma and Charlie I suspect a degree of complacency has set in not to mention a whole new generation (so to speak) of gulf coast residents who have not had the pleasure of a mandatory evac/after storm clean up, besides real estate prices are up >10% yoy in some coastal markets, nothing like a hurricane to fix that

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 16:33 | 1482455 CalibratedConfidence
CalibratedConfidence's picture

the pound sign before the numbers for the buoy takes you to twitter...do they have a copy right on that thing?

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 16:11 | 1482326 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

Can that chart be right? 32 C is something like 90 F. If that's the temp in the GOM, we're all in hot water.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 16:54 | 1482548 Salinger
Salinger's picture

it can be like luke warm bathtub in summer, add to that some red tide and stingrays and its friggin paradise

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 16:58 | 1482563 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Throw in some long necks and Corpus Christi girls for a right nice hot tub.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 15:28 | 1481995 CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

Well, "Murphy's Law" says we'll get nailed...as I have recently moved to FL...a few minutes walk from the beach.  The water temp is exceedingly warm (as reported) and it seemed to warm up earlier than usual.

With any luck at all it will skip over the coast and head STRAIGHT for Attorney General Blondi's (uh, I mean "Bondi's") office.  Eh, don't get me started...

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 15:23 | 1481953 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

I was coming home from Foxwoods this morning, and I could have sworn it was early morning in Houston, Texas.  I have lived in western CT for 16 years, and I have never seen such high dew points here.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 15:21 | 1481939 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

Exxon Mobil read your previous posts on buoy 42001 and took extreme measures.  You have now signed the death warrant of buoy 42040.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:39 | 1481743 geno-econ
geno-econ's picture

 Closer To Home Also Monitor Water in Hudson River.   Not Too Hot But Terribly Foul Smell.  As Hudson River Flows Past Lower Manhatten And Wall St. Shitty Smell Gets Worse.  Probably Portends A Collapse In Stock Market During Hurricane Season.  If Not, Just Oder From Greedy Bankers.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:01 | 1481571 newt22
newt22's picture

Here is a video about guess what? "It's Hot".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pt5Vda2Cm-Q

It will take your mind off things.

 

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:47 | 1481529 Whatta
Whatta's picture

I believe most of TX would agree with me right now...LET THERE BE STORMS IN THE GULF.

We have had the heat since May...sorry y'all have to have a few days of it. We have had the dry since....last year.

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_south.htm

Let the Gulf open up.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 16:06 | 1482282 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"I believe most of TX would agree with me right now...LET THERE BE STORMS IN THE GULF."

I agree.  The best scenario though is for them to come ashore in the sparsely populated North Eastern Mexico region and then arc upwards through Texas.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:23 | 1481443 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

I did buy more KOL and UNG last week. UNG is cheap cheap cheap and KOL, well that's a no brainer imo.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:17 | 1481410 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Happy hour at AIG for the next 2 months.

 

 

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:15 | 1481394 deacon_blues
deacon_blues's picture

I have to get my bug out RV prepped here along the gulf coast.  No Joke.  I appreciate the heads up. 

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:12 | 1481375 gratefultraveller
gratefultraveller's picture

As Wunderground's Jeff Masters commented yesterday, "(tropical storm) Cindy's formation was 24 days ahead of the usual formation date for the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August 13. This year has the most early season activity since 2008, when Hurricane Dolly got named on July 20".

I have been wondering how much of the extreme weather in the rest of the world is caused by the US using HAARP to keep major hurricanes from reaching the continental US - that atmospheric energy created by the heat over the GOM (plus the addition via HAARP) would have to unload somewhere.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 16:54 | 1481524 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Really hard to quantify HAARP's contribution but one assumes the Chinese and Russians are tinkering with the technology as well.

Fact: weather across the globe has been pretty dern odd for the last couple of years. It could be due to cycles but my gut say no.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 19:09 | 1483105 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

if any of you are genuinely interested in becoming more aware about the "weather" - here are a few links you might find interesting:

http://www.stopsprayingcalifornia.com/Weather_Modification_&_Chemtrails.php

http://www.pakalertpress.com/2011/06/19/all-the-proof-in-the-world-haarp...

http://www.youtube.com/user/dutchsinse#p/u/1/Fb4O-_8f9jw

the last one, to the youtube channel of dutchsinse, has folk doing weather updates based on haarp rings, etc. - as with any threads, there are some not-so-useful posts, some nutters, but in the main he's doing a good job of following the unprecedented weather the Midwest has been experiencing.

if you don't believe in the military's involvement in global "weather control" - well, best get up to speed before too long. . .

 

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:18 | 1481412 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

You mentioned Cindy but failed to say the most appalling thing ....

 

this is a "tropical" storm .... spinning up off the coast of ...

 

(wait for it ....)

 

 

 

LABRADOUR!!!!!

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:10 | 1481370 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Last year the hurricanes coming towards fla, all turned up the coast. Absolutely perfect redirects. I wish they would fuck it up a little and let go right over the district of criminals.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:10 | 1481369 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

I wouldn't worry too much. It starts at 90 every day in HK this time of the year. The only giant storms I have noticed lately are around the Filipina bars in Wanchai.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:08 | 1481360 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

I got a feeling we are going to get a nasty one here on the coast of NC,  I'm 90 miles inland, but we haven't had a bad one since Fran in 96',  so we are definitely due for the monster again.  Just hope I ain't stuck at work when it hits.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:14 | 1481392 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

From one ruff to another, why would you be at work when a hurricane is coming to town?

Start coughing all over people and say you are sick.

If that doesn't work, then just piss and shit your pants. That's always works for me.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 15:57 | 1482240 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"why would you be at work when a hurricane is coming to town?"

Funny you should ask that.  I was living and working in North Carolina when Fran paid us a visit.  I was stuck at work too.  At Brunswick NPP, if you are in operations and on shift, well guess what - you're stuck there!  At 90 miles inland, that could put Ruff #1 in the vicinity of Shearon Harris NPP.

It's good to be back home in Central Texas, but I sure do miss seeing rain!

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:56 | 1481315 gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

Nothin wrong about geekin it Bruce....everyone used to say that to me while I had the British Hawthorn on live webcam years ago...kool stuff though.

Speaking of hot ...the kiwi is blazin and has definitely broken out from a 3 year CH...goin par soon enough.

Keepem comin Bruce

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:47 | 1481277 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

Well, since it no longer rains here in Texas, I'll be hoping for a large hurricane or depression.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:40 | 1481509 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Yes sir... Texas is soooo dry we think we should call ourselves the Middle West.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 15:53 | 1482205 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"The odds point to big storms in the Gulf over the next 60 days"

That is the only way we are going to be able to recover from the "exceptional drought" levels here where I live.  Out of six tanks (well, actually seven, but it was completed today so it doesn't count) only one still has water in it.  As long as the well holds out we can water the catlle - if it doesn't, we are screwed.

"Yes sir... Texas is soooo dry we think we should call ourselves the Middle West."

Amen!  Have you priced hay?  That is if you can find it......

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 17:25 | 1482644 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

Yes, a long soaking from a TD/hurricane is the only way we'll ever catch up. I guess I'll hope we get a couple of them this year.

I hear a lot of small ranchers are selling their herds. It's become too expensive to feed and water them.

Sat, 07/23/2011 - 20:48 | 1485908 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"I hear a lot of small ranchers are selling their herds. It's become too expensive to feed and water them."

We are very close to that point.  It still could happen if we have a dry fall too.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 17:50 | 1482722 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Pray for rain, man !

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 22:58 | 1484017 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Amen.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 16:50 | 1482528 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Honest to God I have never seen it drier in the last 16 years.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:46 | 1481269 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I live in Fla. If we get a hurricane I'll do a drunk blog till the power goes out...it'll be a hoot ;-)

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:41 | 1481511 Chump
Chump's picture

Please do.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 14:27 | 1481684 nmewn
nmewn's picture

It'll be great...and we can always use the rain ;-)

Been through a bunch of them, hurricane parties are a part of life here.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:38 | 1481234 DutchSucker
DutchSucker's picture

TPTB are playing on their HAARP

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 13:06 | 1481353 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Dutchsucker be playing on the save button,too.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:38 | 1481233 DutchSucker
DutchSucker's picture

TPTB are playing on their HAARP

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:37 | 1481231 DutchSucker
DutchSucker's picture

TPTB are playing on their HAARP

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 12:37 | 1481229 DutchSucker
DutchSucker's picture

TPTB are playing on their HAARP

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