Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: No Respite In Sight
Spin time: fewer jobs is a victory for the bulls.
When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the results suggest that employers expect a slight decrease in the rate of hiring when compared to Quarter 3 2009. The fourth quarter Net Employment Outlook for the U.S. is considerably weaker than one year ago at this time. According to seasonally adjusted regional data, employers in the South report a slight increase in hiring expectations compared to Quarter 3 2009, while employers in the Midwest and West expect the hiring pace to remain nearly unchanged. Employers in the Northeast are anticipating a moderate decrease and expect the weakest hiring conditions for Quarter 4 2009. Employers across all regions anticipate a considerable decrease in hiring activity compared to one year ago.
hat tip Kris
(2 votes)
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on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 16:47
#69256
This kind of info cries out for the redneck slugger !
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 16:49
#69262
Why hire? After the inventory adjustment there is --well--nothing
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 16:50
#69264
And just look at that Northeast number. Seem to correlate well with the recent Deutche Bank report about that section of the country's real estate getting worse.
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 16:58
#69275
http://abcnews.go.com/m/screen?id=8169165&pid=74
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 17:11
#69288
Kinda makes it hard fo Timmy to be credible if he says it's getting better...but he wasn't saying that yesterday. He said it was going to take A Long, Long Time...and he ought to know.
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 16:56
#69272
What was the date of the Manpower Survey release ?
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 17:01
#69279
The shit storm is a catagory 5. I see it all around
me here in Connecticut, and we are the highest
per capita state. The coming heating bills will
sure push people to the brink.
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 17:54
#69322
The short, mid and long range forecasts do indeed call for a Cat 5 shit storm. Don't worry about the heating bills though... the vacant neighborhood houses will be a great source of free firewood.
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 18:05
#69328
Any many have had the copper removed by the
ill willed. The added scariest thing is that people
are still pumping money into Cornholio portfolios.
They will soon be bent over for a much needed
reality check. Thanks brother, God bless.
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 17:16
#69295
I'm looking for a very blue Christmas. By that time, even the balance sheet fuckery won't save the weak companies.
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 20:38
#69430
Never underestimate the ability of a sneaky accountant and total lack of regulatory enforcement!
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 23:41
#69550
hear, hear! Just think suspension of mark to market.... fantasy accounting.
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 17:24
#69301
This hiring survey also does not account for companies that have gone out of business in the last year, of which there may be one or two in the banking and mortgage industries.
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 19:11
#69360
Are you sure about that? I haven't heard it on MSNBC or CNN?
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 19:40
#69391
Bankrupt companies may find it hard to fire more people
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 17:45
#69316
If anyone doesn't see the storm clouds on the horizon yet:
Not only can you not have a recovery with 17% unemployment... but the bloodbath in the retail business this Xmas is going to be legendary.
This storm is a Cat 5 and it will rip out and destroy anything that even resembles a green shoot.
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 18:09
#69333
In response to the title of an earlier post:
"When the music stops...."
China stock market, RE, commodities crash; massive loan defaults; epic civil unrest
Eastern Europe collapse leading to collapse in Western Europe and Swedish banks
Collapse in British Pound due to massive QE of Gilt market
Russia/Georgia tensions escalate
Middle Eastern tensions escalate
Somali pirates make a return
Collapse in USD, US stock, corporate bond, treasury markets
Total anarchy in Mexico
Worldwide protectionism as governments look for other governments to blame as scapegoats
Gold skyrocketing leading to huge losses for those big banks rumored to be massively short gold
What am I missing?
Not saying any of this will happen but there is definitely an unsettling probability that many of these events do occur within the next few years. I think it's entirely possible for the world to enter a Dark Age 2.0 if you will. Remember the first Dark Age came after the collapse of the Roman Empire. History tends to repeat itself and it's been over 1000 years since the last one, mankind could be due for another correction.
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 18:51
#69353
No fucking way this happens...Goldman Sachs has our backs!
Depression followed by Hyper Inflation...followed by anarchy...sounds about right.
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 19:34
#69388
good point. i think. ughhhh
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 19:49
#69396
Agreed, unfortunately. I've been charming my friends for the past 2 years with warnings that , for all the progress now being made in energy and tech that places us at the steps of a potential Golden Age, other events could produce a New Dark Age when real progress is just beyond our grasp.
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 20:14
#69416
Agreed on much of the above. However, to have anything comparable to the Dark Age we would need some sort of huge natural disaster, like a volcano and subsequent famines and plagues. I believe it would take something that dire(as happened to cause Dark Age 1.0) to break down our society.
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 20:48
#69437
natural disasters are insufficient to bring
about a dark age....
gold backwardation on the other hand is quite
sufficient and efficient to do that....with silver
in and out of backwardation all this year i think
it is fair to assume that gold will follow suit
just as it did for a few days in dec 2008...
once gold backwardation becomes permanent then
you can know that dark ages 2.0 has begun....
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 22:50
#69527
Nah, world war III will have a better probablity. In fact with a global recession there will be plenty of available manpower to fight it.
Anyone seen this post on Mish:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/ghost-fleets-and-protectionism.html
Makes one wonder it its safe to harbor so many empty ships close to a nation that could easily turn them into troop transports.
Obviously the Left Coast would embrace the conquerors as heros and liberators.
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 18:13
#69339
since the charts above were printed in green i would say this is yet another green shoot...
employment declines, which in turn causes more federal spending and bailouts, which in turn causes the stock market to soar, which we know causes the economy to expand....
additionally, people will be forced to take on more debt to survive and increasing debt is proof of how wealthy we are....
finally odumbo will make speeches telling us that we should calm down and have hope....this will cause a stampede to the stores which will force more consumer expansion and another wave of stock market rallies....
the same thing would happen if employment is rising...thus, this scenario is infallibly correct...
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 18:17
#69340
need to keep some perspective on this....
college level unemployment is 4.7% (august) which although historically high is not catastrophic....this is the only unemployment which counts....
as such there isn't the slightest concern in congress or the white house and why they think that totalitarian health care is a given...
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 22:52
#69528
Are you observing that college-educated unemployment is "the only unemployment which counts" strictly from a political perspective, because urban college-educated has become a key support group putting the Democrats in power?
If not, I'd beg to differ, because I'm pretty sure no-college-education still represents the majority in the US, both inside and outside of urban areas, and they may not be able to buy political influence with either party but they own many guns and know how to use them.
on Tue, 09/15/2009 - 01:22
#69586
I heard new graduates at 25% shit out of luck.
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 19:10
#69358
Manpower:
New 52-week highs....
Here are some temps for hire...
LOL...
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 20:29
#69427
Classic Robo move into a thread. Pure brilliance. MAN at 52 week highs, employment tanking. Great pic as well. 2nd one from left particularly hot.
on Tue, 09/15/2009 - 01:29
#69588
Traders Creed
I couple my face in my hands. Half in disgrace and
half with a vexing for forgiveness. Will I be
forgiven? You know it's no and I do too. I am not
a criminal but my bosses are. Look there, as they
are shuffled into the dark class windowed cars.
Like it matters, the public only sees me - and
they will stone me to death.
on Tue, 09/15/2009 - 10:43
#69771
This makes a lot of sense. Employment is going to top 10% along with the harsh realities that for every job opening whenever it might be part-time or full-time will six job applicants.
Deutsche Bank raised their price target from $60 to $65 on the premise that demand will pick up in their largest market (France) and that hiring year over year will be flat. Yet, it seems that all these analyst seem to be discounting historical p/e ratios which is at 75x earnings, PEG is close to 10. While it trades at a stiff preminum to its competitiors such as Robert Half (RHI) who has no debt, compared to the 870+ million that Manpower has.
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 20:42
#69434
The 'temp' worker, (similar to a desert Bedouin as he knows no home) is becoming the new norm, why pay beneifts? Hell might as well become China.
on Tue, 09/15/2009 - 00:34
#69578
Is it true that since you don't pay into the state unemployment fund for temp/contract workers, therefore they are not eligible for U/E benefits? And additionally don't show up in the statistics?
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 19:28
#69383
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1D1cap6yETA
on Mon, 09/14/2009 - 22:34
#69519
Uh, Tyler, didn't you get the latest memo from Bernanke, this is a "Jobless Recovery"!
We gotta keep those Chinese factories a hummin' before we can even think about putting Americans back to work.
Gotta keep those cheap tainted Chinese goods stocked on the Dollar store shelves!
on Tue, 09/15/2009 - 00:13
#69566
people are out spending though - morons are buying the so-called recovery and some are maxing out 401ks while some are cashing out 401ks to sustain spending habits !! we will never learn...
on Tue, 09/15/2009 - 09:39
#69725
Were in the middle innings now of another "Jobless recovery" alot of the attrition was excess ripe for the splaying that was what was. IT is now and has been for some time a middle class consumer crisis. With gas -a -mean price indoctrination nearly complete, cinco dollar a gallon gas coming and going. Who killed the electric car?