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Welcome To The Recession: Manufacturing Surveys Imply US Economy Has Entered The Second Month Of A (Re)Recession
There may be those among the less than brainwashed lemmingerati out there who have noticed what, as we have pointed out for the past month when reporting on the various manufacturing and regional Fed indices, has been an epic collapse in the appropriate data series. As John Lohman so kindly demonstrates, the two month implosion has been beyond epic, and while certainly the biggest drop in the past decade, may also be the all time worst ever. To the point of this post: the last time we had an economic contraction of this magnitude was back in February of 2008, which was two months into the most acute recession in post-depression history. We are confident that once the groupthink wraps its head around the fact that the auto production based renaissance is not coming, and the economy officially tumbles into the commode of Ben Bernanke's fiat dungeon, the NBER will determine (with an appropriate 12-18 month delay), that the current recession started in April of 2011.
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Priceless.
Ya just gotta love this place.
So few column inches. Yet so much snark.
I weap with tears of wonder.
Please don't eat the snark. And please keep you fingers and toes away from the cougar's mouth.
illuminati and lemmingerati...they always go together kind of complete each-other...as...
don quixote and sancho panzo...
If I could snark like that I wouldn't need this stinking day job.
Some bastards get all the luck.
But Chapter One is shaping up, even if its snark be low. Coming soon to a black den of mad science near you.
You are one snarky bastard, coug, but even Money Mcbags had to go back to his day job. I'll see what I can do about those other bastards that are hogging up all the luck, though, if it makes you feel better.
You do snark like that cougar. Just make sure you don't hold back in that first chapter. Quality always trumps quantity.
I hate to go off topic, but is Zero Hedge aware of the wildfire within a mile of Los Alamos Nuclear Lab in New Mexico? Junk me if you must, but this situation trumps the dying economy for now... http://www.oilfreefun.com/2011/06/los-alamos-nuke-lab-wildfire-here-we-g...
Cha....and the Nuke plant in Nebraska is under water......but just go on about your business.....no problem.....
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43540933/ns/us_news-environment
"We don't believe the plant is posing an immediate threat to the health and safety of the public," Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chairman Gregory Jaczko said.
There. Alll better.
The irony of the national nuclear laboratory being damaged by a wildfire is quite wry. Perhaps mother nature is trying to get even for all the burning she has endured from nuclear testing.
These are strange times indeed.
In a nation suffering from between 10 to 20% unemployment (you pick your source, you pick your number) and having seen the damage extreme flooding can do to our farmlands, and shipping on the major rivers, it seems like a no brainer that some bright bulb at the Army Corp of engineer could develop a scheme to build a system of aquaducts to bring the flood waters to the parched deserts and lands of Texas, New Mexico and Arizona.
It makes more sense then dumping it into the ocean or flooding the fields. Might even put a few folks back to work for a while.
Note to Los Alamos - next time build a moat around your property - borrow water from flooded midwest for future demand.
wth...flooding is how the farmland GOT THERE. How do you people suppose floodplains are so fertile???
Hey you. Stop looking around. Look straight ahead unless you are given permission to do otherwise.
There was a report of 30,000 barrels of spent PLU awaiting transport to a more permanent storage facility.
DId not make it out.
God help us all if this crap leaks out and gets into the flood waters.
Japan will be a picnic compared to the damage this would cause.
On the Los Alamos wildfire........Er'.........seems like the folks at the NRC would have had enough SENSE to build a firewall well away from the reactor when built.
Of course that would be , and require forethought.
.Gub folks must collectively be mostly idiots.
Lots of foreplay,but no foresight.(Hell it's JUST a Nuclear Reactor/facility in the middle of Burn America (like every year).
I particularly like: ...and the economy officially tumbles into the commode of Ben Bernanke's fiat dungeon...
Short the market or buy gold?
Go long market and short gold. This is very bullish in this bullshit environment.
Plus, it's EOQ. Gotta keep the bathrobe brigade happy.
oh dear
tis but a flesh wound...
or a SoftPatch™ in the RecoverySummer™
Green(span)Shoots to Infinity and Beyond!!
In a fiat economy, all you really have is hyperbole. Fort Knox is filled with vaults brimming to the top with hyperbole, and little Benny Bernankenfurter has a solid gold theasaurus on his desk in a glass bell jar, to be broken into and used only in case of emergency.
The dust spores settle on the glass daily as Benny uses his quick English to FedSpeak dictionary to muster yet more powerful hyperbole to cast a spell and send this diabolical Depression back to the vaults of the tbtf banks where it originated.
His wand is limp and his magic is lacking and even Mrs Bernankenfurter has begun to notice.
learn the steps yourself, now you can do it at home:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bi_UirW7y8c
this is bullish.
.999 FINE BULLSHIT
"BULLISHIT"
There. Fixed.
NOT worth the Paper.
Fireworks on july 4th and the burning paper gold/silver pyres on the 15th.
as long as stocks hold at this level, despite the aforementioned crappy economic news, it will be qe lite for the foreseeable future with no expansion of the fed balance sheet.
The stock market (so-called, or what's left after dark pools) at this juncture is merely a proxy for the health and wealth of the TBTF. If they get in trouble, market will drop like a WTC tower
I don't think Kito's a troll; of course I could be wrong. I think he's here to demonstrate to himself that economic doomers are ill-informed and mis-directed.
I SWEAR that was a reply to WineSorbet.
[Twilight Zone music]
I remember the bragging of 2007 that turned into shear fucking terror in 2008. Beware driving via the rearview mirror. Your ass can easily wind up in the glove box.
Yes spas, its my psychological hedge against the vast holdings of gold i have accumulated from the toll doomers pay to cross my bridge.
Another troll on zh. Awesome
I'm inclined to say: piss off! Sorbet, christ, another Frenchie.
Robo Trader-lite?
Man.
$14 Trillion sure don't buy what it used to......
Still gets you 1.75 trillion burritos....at CMG.
Thank God. Saved.
I thought manufacturing was obsolete now that we have money printing presses and iPad applications?
Long gubment cheeze.
Is it a (Re)Recession or an (Re)Depression? Enquiring minds want to know.
It's simply a (Re)Re...possession.
How many (Re)Recessions were there in the first Great Depression? And how many will there be in the current Great Depression?
Dam trick questions...let's see. Been repressed since 1913, so we are still in the same one.
Hope the prize isn't a date with RT.
You have to use new new math to solve these word question things.
The new new math contains nothing but positive numbers. You have to add random numbers of zeros behind every whole number before you add them. And you have to ignore any values that fall of the end of the 99 week carry over.
See, I'm taking night school. Imma get myself edumacated.
cougar_w
Actually the old math has converged with the new economics.
The product of two negative measurements is now a positive.
But should always be conditioned by using the statement "unexpectedly".
And end with "transitory".
Well here is the problem! They have been multiplying! This is an addition problem! :P -1 + -1 = -2
This double post issue is 100% weaksauce. :P
+1. Central question.
Breaks down along party lines: Dems want it to be called Re-Recession, GOP wants it to be a brand spanking new Recession.
Of course the net effect of the Re-Depression might be De-Repression
The Mack Daddy "D Repress'n" be throw'n down dat shit, my niggaz
It's depressing, so on that basis I'd go with the latter.
If it's a Double-D DDepression, is it more fun?
Tyler, you are beyond amazing. And, I bet you will be within one or two months of correct on the new, HA, recession. Here in Nevada the first one never ended.
Thank you Sir,
Nevadans must not have been long lulu, that's why you guys missed the recovery.
Well in Nevada the whorehouses in the out of way dusty roads do well enough.
A man comes out of the desert and sees a lady. Does he get the drink or does he take the lady?
Is he lucky?
As Marc Faber says, "accumulate gold, invest in silver" " that US economy needs to go through a devastating crisis before it can make any meaningful recovery. The US debt problem hasn't gone away."
i know! the radioactive recession. by the time the real world catches on, zeroHeads will be in the vortex of a spriral nebulae speeding toward a black hole. yep. that one!
so, don't tell anybody, ok?
Any way to track lost state and local government jobs. Local budgets are a wreck. This will all become apparent soon as contracts ed at end of July. I'm guessing we will see a 500,000 plus unemployment app number in July
if the goobermint pink slips are knee high by the 4th of july, we might make it thru the year...
Gold back over $1,500.
Stocks could roar tomorrow for the "End of Quarter" ramp job into the fabled July 4th weekend.
Whenever the riskiest asset on the planet starts moving up, bears need to watch out.
Of course, the IBD Riverboaters were already buying the consumer screamers today, so don't get me started on LULU, CMG, NFLX, FOSL, etc.
I usually skip over your post, but I have a question. Are you calling gold the riskiest asset on the planet?
Gold itself is not volatile, it is all the currencies it is valued in yoyoing up and down that give the appearance that gold is volatile. It would appear a lot less volatile if TBTF were not manipulating it.
Double post
Good, I hope you're right. Then I can bail the rest of my money out of my IRA and buy real money.
does this mean that 'cash for clunkers' 2 is now a sure thing?
I can now trade in my 1973 chevy vega for a brand new lexus with a 30 year installment plan?
Yes, 'cash for clunkers' is alive and well. Just vote for your local Dimmocrat.
Time to strike up the ban!
one step beyonD
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAx2GHUUoSo
... or your Rethuglican for that matter!
You two cannot hold up in the WEAK TEA served by PARTY!
Right on, CD, I was thinking the same thing. If in reality this is a recession it has to be an extreme one. And I think the definition needs revision. This economic calamity is at the stage where most people have at least been touched by it; to being completely wiped out and homeless.
And no one responsible for this has even been indicted. Heist deluxe.
New Zealand stocks in full boner mode tonight.
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/w?s=%5eNZ50&lang=en-US®ion=US
Will be watching to see how Japan, Korea, and China trade later on.
Looks to me like driving the 5-yr. yield down to 1.37% this morning achieved the desired effect of re-invigorating the "Animal Spirits" at the prop desks.
Not only that, the FemBots have been horsewhipping the 19-year old, Red-Bull swilling crack head traders at the largest funds.
"The Russell 2000 and QQQ are outperforming, I want you guys buying some stocks now before the entire Wildebeest herd starts stampeding!"
LOL...
But the EUR is puking. Will not be on USDHUF tonite, looks like, though bid is still active.
Anybody got a Dramamine?
Ginger tea works almost as well.Mix with bicardi 151 to taste...
why do they resent your counterintuitive nature robo?
And some of the economic talking heads in the media are still calling US manufacturing the one bright spot in the recovery. What recovery? What bright spot? What manufacturing? And of course we keep hearing how US autos are back and set to burst out into a major economic driver. Orwellian propaganda is out of control in the so called us economic media.
Who says we don't make anthing in the U. S. any longer?
China Rebuilds San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge
Posted: 26 Jun 2011 02:34 AM PDT
China has its fingers in nearly every aspect of global financing as the following articles show.
San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge Now Made in China
The New York Times reports Bridge Comes to San Francisco With a Made-in-China Label
SHANGHAI — Talk about outsourcing.
Next month, the last four of more than two dozen giant steel modules — each with a roadbed segment about half the size of a football field — will be loaded onto a huge ship and transported 6,500 miles to Oakland. There, they will be assembled to fit into the eastern span of the new Bay Bridge.
The project is part of China’s continual move up the global economic value chain — from cheap toys to Apple iPads to commercial jetliners — as it aims to become the world’s civil engineer.
The assembly work in California, and the pouring of the concrete road surface, will be done by Americans. But construction of the bridge decks and the materials that went into them are a Made in China affair. California officials say the state saved hundreds of millions of dollars by turning to China.
“They’ve produced a pretty impressive bridge for us,” Tony Anziano, a program manager at the California Department of Transportation, said a few weeks ago.
On the reputation of showcase projects like Beijing’s Olympic-size airport terminal and the mammoth hydroelectric Three Gorges Dam, Chinese companies have been hired to build copper mines in the Congo, high-speed rail lines in Brazil and huge apartment complexes in Saudi Arabia.
In New York City alone, Chinese companies have won contracts to help renovate the subway system, refurbish the Alexander Hamilton Bridge over the Harlem River and build a new Metro-North train platform near Yankee Stadium. As with the Bay Bridge, American union labor would carry out most of the work done on United States soil.
The new Bay Bridge, expected to open to traffic in 2013, will replace a structure that has never been quite the same since the 1989 Bay Area earthquake. At $7.2 billion, it will be one of the most expensive structures ever built. But California officials estimate that they will save at least $400 million by having so much of the work done in China.
There is much more in the 2-page story including protests by US steelworker unions and charges of poor-quality Chinese steel.
As a testament to the the current sad state of US manufacturing, the project director claims “Most U.S. companies don’t have these types of warehouses, equipment or the cash flow. The Chinese load the ships, and it’s their ships that deliver to our piers.”
coolie labor 102
I'll have to remember to stay of that bridge. At least the American made bridges that fall down are more than 60 years old.
Chinese steel ? Enough to make Taylor roll over in his grave.
I personally am aware of some iron bridges of the Truss type that are still standing after 100+ years. They have been closed to vehicles but serve people walking well enough.
It would not be long before our children are speaking chinese and moving as one unit to complete the objective of day.
I believe the French own toll roads in Texas and these idiots think it is great. They give them their credit cards and act like it is free (not a tax).
No shit that is the attitude!
It's Spain
Credit cards are a tax? Do you go to prison for not having credit cards? Stop trying to turn everyone into a victim
Just wait until they try and cash that California IOU, er , I mean check...
They better do it soon, if the big one hits and drops that state into the ocean, that's all folks.
Doing jobs that American companies won't do
Doing jobs that American companies won't do
You know the economy is in deep shit when CNBC starts to use "recovery" as a buzzword again.
Stock market is nothing but a Eur/Dol FX proxy...so goes the proxy, so goes the stock market.
Damnit, die dolleur...so we may live to see Dow 20k.
How are they going to sneak another GM bailout past the taxpayers? Executive Order?
Is it true that Tyler is actually Robert Reich?
No, Tyler is taller.
Robert Reich connects the dots on the economy in 2 min 15 sec.
http://econproph.com/2011/06/19/robert-reich-connects-the-dots-to-tell-whats-happened-to-our-economy-in-2-minutes/
In summary, Reich connects five “dots”:
7. Reich (& pals) 'skims' off the foreskin of that cheese in his useless little perch in academia... So glad it all worke out that way...
I'll be his nasally twang and public service record both put yours to shame.
Lighten up, Francis.
Reich isn't perfect, but he speaks the truth more often than most. He's right baout the super-rich, for instance. Their rise to power is the cause of all that we see wrong about this economy.
What was the saying? Eat the Rich? May happen in your lifetime, friends.
When dining on the rich, always begin your feast with a solid course of bankers. Best served with a light chablis, though in a pinch Thunderbird or nearly any screwtop wine will do.
Save the old money for last, the tough old birds need to cook longer to soften them up.
Forget the cooking, you have to catch em. Thier big slobbering greasy behinds make it difficult enough. That is why you need to own two cats. So when they both get too fat, they can groom each other's asses well enough.
When they announced the SPR release my antenna started twitching. They must get data much sooner than the market. I'm betting my 50% cash and 50% gold that something big is afoot. And it can't be Greece. There are too many people focussed on Europe. Something else is going on.
Peak twitching, peak something else going on. Peak bomething sig a foot.
Peak extend and pretend?...somehow I think there's still another trick or two up that sleeve.
However, my own powers of prognostication have proven entirely premature...hope your timing better than mine.
Edit - Peak I've completely lost my mind waiting for something to peak.
SPR release was totally political cuz BO smells like he has been in the gutter too long.
China. If you are a trader, you'll have the SHIBOR, Shanghai and China bond charts running. China is trying to distract from their implosion, which is happening now. The distraction is Europe. But it's show me the money, China won't do squat in the EZ, the most you'll see is EUR sales into this week prior to the Greek vote, that will be a yes/no vote. French banks are getting ready for that, as are German.
Something big? Yeah...Asia.
China property news implosion filtering through, for all you FX traders upside stops taken out on the EUR and AUD.
Me too on the SPR release - why, I pondered? Gas prices were already in full retreat at American gas stations. I figure it is a move too late by idiots.
You only use your ace when you don't want anyone else to use it. Either he wants to pump it dry to build his polling numbers, or maybe just appease his oil industry friends. it makes no sense, but little does anymore.
maybe they was afraid it would spoil and it was past its use by date.
Use the oil up now so it wouldn't be around for some event that apparently they are planning for us. Oh boy, a surprise....
The SPR release is to scare specs into selling. The ultimate goal is cheap oil for us, and putting Iran out of business.
Or the survey changed from positive to neutral.
http://www.eia.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/flash/flash.html
Power consumption for the industrial sector is up year over year for April. Not confirming a (re)recession. I'd give it that there's been little to no recovery in industrial demand. When GM shuts the plants in July, this may look much different.
Memo from the White House said "keep the lights on at night, boys."
Japan retail sales decimated y/y, China...toast. French, shortsell their banks and bonds.
An observation: After 1932, GDP grew >5% and mostly by double digits (13% 1936!) for five years, from 1933-1937, before contracting in 1938. That provided a huge cushion and some momentum.
There's no momentum in an economy that contracts 2 1/2 years after a sharp contraction with only minimal 'growth" in between
Double dip - tastes good less filling
+1 for beer reference
Pro-Tip: double fist your silver bars while you walk to burn a few more calories.
Check this out from AP.
Why economists see a stronger second half for 2011
Why economists see a modestly stronger second half for 2011 after a dismal 6 months
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Why-economists-see-a-stronger-apf-34470878...
Just pro forma that shit for Japan and everything is just fucking ducky.
Is that before or after one pro formas QE 1, Lite and 2?
Does it really matter?
.
:) Good to see you Chinaguy
How long can Phil LeBeau over at the BlowHorn [CNBC] continue to NOT NOTICE the facts regarding the automobile industry [as the transportation analyst]? What will his creative bullish take be regarding closed plants and layoffs?
To date, he has entirely ignored the GM channel stuffing scandal.
I wonder how long COMCAST will enjoy the cash hemorrhage from its new acquisition...and just when it will finally decide to attempt to restore any credibility at the network?
Phil "Four-On-The-Floor" LeBeau is a car shill. He bristles at any criticism of the auto industry in U.S. Very thin-skinned in that area. Don't expect objective reporting from him.
Don't expect objective reporting from him.
Fixed it for ya RR. :>)
Yes, yes, the snark aside, his job is to understand the automobile industry. Clearly he does not understand the automobile industry. His lack of understanding is clearly on display to the public. So my point was...as the Ford Plant in St. Paul shuts down permanently, and summer layoffs come nationwide [despite how the industry is not retooling], what is the spin?
Plant closing notifications and layoffs are due to hit within days. The crushing and recycling of new channel stuffed GM automobiles cannot be that far off, either.
In the meantime, ratings at the network continue to suck donkey balls in a big way...and so as to the cash bleed at NBC, no longer with its government largess parent GE, at what point does the network see the ghost of credibility past in the mirror of its quarterly non earnings?
Personally, I find all of this quite fascinating because it is so painfully obvious.
**and if to make my point, COMCAST was just recently raised to 'conviction buy' by none other than GS** ?????????????????/
I would think Phil is paid quite handsomely NOT to understand the automotive markets. His job has nothing to do with actual reality, it is about creating a pseudo-reality where people will follow the dreams he weaves and hopefully open their wallets for GE/comcast/ZombiVision Industries.
Its never been about the truth, so why else do they lie about shit we can check on?
I have had just enough martinis to be sufficiently incapable of answering your question. I do not know why they lie about stuff we can check on. In fact, any dipshit zombie with an iPad in his hand right now could check on the status of the automobile industry, which would leave old Phil LeBeau's cred hanging in the breeze.
And it being true that credibility is harder to create than anything else GE could build, or COMCAST could broadcast, it continues to be a mystery to me why so many people are throwing their credibility on the funeral pyre of the current economy.
Alas he's pining for the days of Camaro and Firebird, TransAm, GTO, Toronado and Delta 88.
Camaros burn up the block, the Firebirds are too fluffy and the GTO the true Judge of all, Toronado is luxury that just.. velvet choking you to death and the Delta 88 was buried.
I don't pine, I lived it. A fistful of points, sparks, wires and a firing order book on that Cobra 429 did well enough. Today all engines run the same, no character and you need a stupid computer to talk to another stupid mechanic is nothing more than a bike assembler at a walmart.
However a old fuck like me gets a little drippy thinking about how the Roll's big engine can push a 6 ton barge from 0 to 60 in 3 and 170+ in a few. Those who own one don't worry about such annoying crap such as phone bills and rent.
PLEASE -- retooling planned closure. Priced in and shorter than expected!
The recession never ended. Only if you look at the Federal Reserve charts, you can reassure yourself the recession has passed.
M1 Money Multiplier
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT
Take a few minutes out of your life by watching videos. Ask yourself, how soon will this economic global train wreak finally effect YOU!
The Obama Legacy
The Rights of Man
OMFG! Juan Williams just played the race card on Herman Cain! Said 'Amos and Andy' dialect!
Have so waited for this shit.
When the 5 Rothschild brothers, symbolized by the 5 arrows in the Rothschild emblem, branched out from their headquarters in Frankfurt to 5 major European cities, among them Paris, London and Naples, their motto was and always will be:
Concordia - integritas - industria.
Still today their main holding company is called
Concordia B.V., located in Apollolaan in Amsterdam, Netherlands.
I thought it was La Cosa Nostra, Nuestra Familia because they sure as shit have acted like it
OMG what would Money McBags do?
Post kewl bikini pics?
I MISS McBAGS
Abby Josef Cohen wonders why we were about this when all she has to do is say 1450 and say that things will be better in the future.
That hermaphrodite doesn't know jack.
Abby Is a god. I am reliably informed (according to her) that she called the top in 2000. I'm not buying until she turns bearish.
ZH on satellite news, Greek MP won't vote yes to austerity EUR sold.
Anything on this?
one of them said that last week, prolly old news, but it was one of the Pasok MP's
on wires. betting on the yes/no vote
Gold and silver will be a safe bet for "an extended period of time" (to
borrow a phrase from the Fed) unless you have faith that those in charge
have a handle on the problems we face and it's just a matter of time
before the economy is back on track, the jobless rate drops dramatically,
and the housing market sees better days. That's more faith than I can
muster. I am going to hold on to my PMs, as they have treated me well
over the pass ten years, I recommend that everyone should take some
position in physical gold and silver.
+10
Been there, done that. Resting now before the next big push on the Euro depending on which way the big fat failing Greek vote goes this week.
I see the PM's rise as china buys hand over fist each night and then fall as the NY Markets struggle with the mountains of paper that will cremate them on the 15th July.
Edited, double post courtesty of the error 503
what a larf, 'auto production based renaissance.'
the tax payer funding of both those turds will end in liquidation, we only 'kicked the can' on these two too. i can't recall but GM started 00 with a boatload of cash and over the course of a decade couldn't manage to get straightened out...not surprising.
By Bailing Chrysler and GM they bailed the entire supply chain of support industries right down to steel, tires and specialty electronics. And since US SUVs burn the most carbon, the oil industry and it's supply chain were bailed as well.
Move along, nothing to see here. We'll have this papered over in no time.