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Welcome To The Recession: Manufacturing Surveys Imply US Economy Has Entered The Second Month Of A (Re)Recession
There may be those among the less than brainwashed lemmingerati out there who have noticed what, as we have pointed out for the past month when reporting on the various manufacturing and regional Fed indices, has been an epic collapse in the appropriate data series. As John Lohman so kindly demonstrates, the two month implosion has been beyond epic, and while certainly the biggest drop in the past decade, may also be the all time worst ever. To the point of this post: the last time we had an economic contraction of this magnitude was back in February of 2008, which was two months into the most acute recession in post-depression history. We are confident that once the groupthink wraps its head around the fact that the auto production based renaissance is not coming, and the economy officially tumbles into the commode of Ben Bernanke's fiat dungeon, the NBER will determine (with an appropriate 12-18 month delay), that the current recession started in April of 2011.
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February 2008.
Well, look, I spent all day watching CNBS and this time its different.
This time Europe is falling apart, so the financial crisis will be confined to just a few dodgy European banks. The ECB has a FART (Financial Artistry Rescue Thingie) already in place. They've addressed the problem. It's the American MSM that doesn't report things properly and if they did, nobody'd be worried. And the European problem doesn't have mortgages in it with the negative convexity. And with no mortgages in it the people's money is not at stake.
The disaster caused by Fukushittinme is about to beginning to soon turn stimulative as Japanese consumer wealth becomes unparalyzed and is freely spent upon imported bottled water, Russian cat food, Tyvek clothing and dosimeters, not to mention the deal to have all the old shovel ready pensioners clean up the mess for their entitlement checks.
The dollar is still the strongest currency in the world. Since every other currency is worse. Well, maybe except the Swissie and the w/i DM. But you can't eat gold.
They've already ordered a new bungie spoungie berm thingie from Archie McPhee for Ft. Calhoun.
There will be a surge in Lybia working and troops will be withdrawn from Af-Pak and wherever else pretty soon as in geological terms.
The Arab Spring is blooming. The propaganda about the Muslim Brotherhood is all false. They love Americans. And respect Christian Westerners, having forgiven everybody for the Crusades. And Iran knows their place.
Fracking isn't any more dangerous than a 3 headed toe frog. And there is plenty of oil shale right under America's best farm land.
New legislation will put the banksters in their place, fix the budget deficit, decrease the size of the government, reduce waste and eliminate theft, fraud and ancillary inefficiencies.
Responsible, mature adult candidates will rise within both parties in time for the 2012 election.
Tesla's free energy will be finally revealed by the government in a altruistic concession to saving the environment.
The Chemtrails are really the hidden solution to global warming and are good for you. Just like radiation.
It's different this time.
Steve Liesman told me so. And so did some of those nameless boob job eye candy thingies. Especially that one objectification fetish girl.
Well, OK. I exaggerate.
I took a nap.
Bad bouncy castle failed round Fort Calhoun...NRC should have gotten one of the super duper bouncy castles w/ an extendo slide and could have doubled as a water park attraction.
BTW - if Liesman kisses BB's ass one more time for attending the in the post Fed BS press conference, I'm gonna hurl...can't stand me that f'ing smarmy pos.
I share your enthusiasm. We are a nation of dreamers. And shoppers. And when you combine those two skills you get an unbeatable combination.
We won one for the Gipper by going shopping once before when the going got tough. Now we need to win one for the OBipper and dream and shop till we flop.
You had me right up until the part about "responsible, mature, adult candidates."
Breaking news..."On news the US Economy has double dipped, US Kenyan born President Barry O'Bama cancels 5% of his golf excursions for the rest of the year, he has also kicked Tim Geitner off his basketball team, his wife Michelle will now play as the 6 ft 5 inch power forward"
That's just mean - Geithner may not be much to look at but he does one heckuva job under the boards. Every team needs someone willing to do the dirty work and Timma does it in spades...
remarkable that he has not been booted in the ass out of his job, but for the fact that the people he is REALLY working for are very pleased with his performance.
Timmah: Douchebag. Tax cheat. Traitor.
Obama's mom worked for Timmies dad, true fact.
timmy was in charge of the slush fund for the treasury when he was captain of the ny Fed team.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange_Stabilization_Fund
Obama and Timmy are probably joined at the hip, since Obama is the only one who can direct where the ESF funds go, by telling Timmy whom he trusts to carry out his special slush fund needs.
Small world, what's the chance your mom's bosses son would wind up working for you one day?
We don't need no water, let the mother fucker burn!
The sooner the better.
Agree but it must burn and take all of the US liars in DC and the banking cons with it.
Wait, Bernake will save us, he studied the great depression, he was the person of the year, he was named as "expert" by the congress people, he is smart no?
Ironic ain't it, we got a guy who wrote a book on the great depression, a scholar of the period, in charge of the Fed during the 2nd great Depression, and we got a President who got a Nobel Peace Prize just for showing up, conducting 5 odd wars simultaneously (Iraq,Afghanistan,South America((mostly Plan Colombia))Libya and the other one I promised not to tell anbody about, oh okay, were planning on invading Antartica in September, it was gonna be an August surprise, but the army was short on sweaters, so they had to order some more from China)
He just doesn't see it, that's all.
Ben Bernanke on his way to work
That graph is horrible, it really shows how much of a pickle we are in. They stuffed the supply channels to make it look like things where working out and now on the back end we are seeing that it's not.
It's so bad it can't possibly get any worse - so it's bullish right? Snark!
For as long as the TBTF banks have some cash.
It's bullish as long as the Dollah keeps getting bought overnight so it can be whacked before market open :P
If we don't give them more cash, we will be in really bad economic trouble! Promise!
For those of you who don't still believe in the alpha asset of civilization, all of this unravelled when Brent sucked billions in cash out of The System.
It is the one thing they can't print. They'll try to with the SPR, but the SPR has to be refilled.
It's not going to be pretty. Gold is useless when TSHTF. Have food and guns. Nothing else will help you, and those won't help much.
bruh...gold had value before oil existed. Bitchez like it...it's shiny and yellow
Won't jumk WarPig, but this is the second big fire near Los Alamos in a few years - non event.
The manufacturing numbers are in line with a major economic contraction. Hopefully, a few more months of these numbers, and I will not have to explain why this long term business cycle model based on DJIA prices since 1896 looks the way it does. There are a number of long-term cycles that are converging on the down side. The good news, if one believes in business cycle theory, is that this too shall pass.
http://econocasts.blogspot.com/2011/06/model-djia-longshort_26.html
@Tyler-
A great interview with David Stockman...may be worthy of its' own article/forum.
http://investmentwatchblog.com/david-stockman-ben-bernanke-is-finished/
And with this sort of data and the retail data in the sewer, the criminals ran this overpriced clown show on Wall Street up 100 points today. The day of collapse is slowly approaching and it is suported by NO bond sales except to ourselves and no recovery and enourmous debt. Great Job Obama, Summers, Geithner, Bernanke and crime syndication in DC and on Wall Strret and in the bowels of Chicago. This clown wants another term? I dont think the people are quite that stupid.
"I dont think the people are quite that stupid."
Who's prez again?
Not that stupid, eh? They still like him. Wait until you see who's next.
BAIL-OUTS....BAIL-OUTS.....WE DON'T NEED NO STINKEN BAIL-OUTS
Let the meltup commence ala 2008
Go TNA!
(puke)...but it payz.....
Anywhere else and this would be bad news,but in the USA THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY BULLISH NEWS...
Fucking numb nuts....(usaGovt)
We merely delayed the economic Ice-Age by throwing $3 trillion on the fire.
Jimmy Carter told us to save money and wear sweaters. Obama is banning all sweaters until after 2012.
wasn't it 3 trillion on the record, and something like 20 trillion off?
Also, didn't the pentagon "misplace" a few trillion dollars before 9/11?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kpWqdPMjmo
I love that.... the lemmingerati!!
Tyler, you are hot...
There is a palpable fear in the air that not
even ramp of stock can mask; it's unlike i've ever
seen in the markets. Thanks to zero I've saved my
sanity and my cash. For your own good get out of the
market and starve the beast. I say the beast is
cornered, shitting and pissing itself and lashing out
blindly as the cold blade of QE nears its end.
There is a palpable fear in the air that not
even ramp of stock can mask; it's unlike i've ever
seen in the markets. Thanks to zero I've saved my
sanity and my cash. For your own good get out of the
market and starve the beast. I say the beast is
cornered, shitting and pissing itself and lashing out
blindly as the cold blade of QE nears its end.
Working on pulling my money out of my 401k. The banks said it would take 30 days. 30 days?
I am going to put my money into hookers and video games.
Good luck Wall Street, no one trusts you any more.
Just quit. They MUST cut you a check within two weeks.
Get out of the market? Why? The Dow has risen 100% in two years. Only the "doom and gloom" crowd is dumb enough to be in cash.
Hey idiot, we are not in "cash" we are in gold and silver.
And jacketed copper as well as rifled penetrators.
Jim Cramer says "buy".
Treasury auditors are already giving Ron Paul grief over surveying the contents of Ft. Knox. They say every gold bar will have to be assayed and this will in turn take away from the value of each bar and that it will be a 60 million dollar project to undertake. Do you get the feeling they are stonewalling for some reason? Read about it in CNN Money
Look, I'm not doubting that we're totally fucked, economically speaking of course, but I can't help but remember something from ECON 101.
Isn't the very textbook definition of a recession said to be two consecutive quarters of zero or negative GDP growth? How can we call it a recession after two months when it technically requires six months to find this out?
Again, I realize that we're totally fucked here, but I'm just sayin'.