Many Deep Thoughts From Howard Marks

Deep thoughts from one of the premier financial thinkers of our generation (700 pages worth in fact) and a recent recipient of $1 billion worth of generosity from CIC.

h/t wposter

Comments

[AN0NYM0US]

I noted the CIC deal on Boomberg yesterday and the irony of Oaktree's status with PPIP - e.g. it's nice to see that China will be enhancing its partnership with the Treasury and  American taxpayers

[Anonymous]

i.e. not e.g.

[AN0NYM0US]

Actually I think 'e.g.' was the more appropriate abbreviation though 'i.e.' could also be appropriate i.e. the appropriate use of 'e.g.' is when an example is being provided whereas the appropriate use of 'i.e.' is to elaborate on a preceding statement. With the statement in question, an example was provided  of the irony of China's indirect involvement with the PPIP, however it could also be construed  as an elaboration of same. 

[AN0NYM0US]

and the conclusion from page 699 (Note that this tome was dated July 8, 2009 - SPX 882)

With price and value in reasonable balance, the course of security prices will largely be determined by future economic developments that defy prediction. Thus I find it hard to be highly opinionated at this juncture. Few things are compelling sells here, but I wouldn't be a pedal to the metal buyer either. On balance, I think better buying opportunities lie ahead.

[Daedal]

So, "price and value are in reasonable balance" AND "I think better buying opportunities lie ahead". IE, we're not in overbought conditions, but may be in an oversold one in the future.

Ahem, even Hussman, with his 6.6% annualized return expectation doesn't think that price and value are in reasonable balance. (I've noted b4, several times, that Hussman, like other mutual fund managers, have a conflict of interest due to them making a living from fees collected on assets managed, and thus cannot ever have a pessimistic view that would drive away investors. Hussman is as close to pessimism from a fund manager that you'll get).

[Anonymous]

With my respect to research in general,and since this blog is populated by intelligent people,I would like to ask all of the readers here a question: Do you guys honestly believe in all those research papers about the equity market( apart from real econmic stats and research)?If you truely believe in those research, where is the logic in something that was selling say for $250,goes down to $50 in a couple of months,and then goes back up to $120 in a couple of months too? To summ it up;markets too high, not enough margin for IBs,crash the market. Get some trillions from the goverments,buy the market,and let money mangers chase you.It happened twice in less than 10 years,and it will happen again in a shorter time span this time.Just look at the logic presented for downgrading RIMM,and tell me this not how it works. I mean 20% off because their average price(what is this gibbrish)is the same(not less). Garbage;they ran out of inventory. So that begs the question,why all those studies?we are in a completely different time frame from Warren Buffets hay days. Time has changed,and so did ethics.

[michigan independant]

"Time has changed,and so did ethics."

I respectfully disagree.

[Dogfather]

I respectfully agree! 

[Miles Kendig]

I have yet to find any opinion, including my own, that I am in 100% agreement with after careful consideration.  Considered opinions are just that, and being considered are ever being refined and redefined.  The big caveat being mathematical proofs. The universal language.  Therein is the quest for greater understanding of and facility with this form of communication/expression.

However, I find few voices in finance generally that posses the amplitude to reach my awareness with whom I am in significant agreement with. Most often, I simply discover the nuggets I find noteworthy and compile my own assessments.  After all, informational curiosity quests are the stuff that fuels research & assessments and each paper, good, bad or indifferent provides fodder to both satisfy this hunger and leave it wanting.

[rr_]

How can I convert this scribd doc to pdf? That's a much better format for me.

[Miles Kendig]

More - Save Document - Maybe Later - Continue download - Save - select .pdf from the list of options

[Silver Bullet]

700 pages......well there goes my Monday.

[Anonymous]

Marks is one of two guys I would actually let run money for me (the other being Paul Singer).

[Anonymous]

Dont get it. Oaktree's perf sucks. Its just a big, lousy asset manager.

Old guy thinks times have changed for the worse -- fascinating!

[Anonymous]

Anyone download the doc before it got taken off? If yes, appreciate it if you could email a copy to [e-mail]

Thanks!