Mapping The Divergence In Credit And Equity
Another side effect of excess liquidity and computerized stock markets has been the divergence between stock and credit indices. As the chart attached demonstrates, since the beginning of August we have seen a very rangebound market in roll-adjusted Investment Grade spreads, represented by the CDX IG (inverted axis to keep it apples to apples with stock moves), while the equity market in turn has been on a unstoppable tear ever higher, as captured by the SPY. In fact, even as the IG has been making higher "lows", the SPY has gotten completely detached from the underlying economic reality of which credit seems to be at least partially cognizant, and ploughs ever higher on nothing else than goodwill and excess liquidity. Now, not only has the S&P bubble diverged with the Nikkei as presented earlier, but with underlying US credit metrics themselves.