Mapping The Scenarios For The Japanese Economy

Tyler Durden's picture

Your rating: None

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 03/30/2011 - 07:30 | 1116269 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Japan will dump U.S. Treasuries, comrades.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 07:36 | 1116283 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

one can hope.  would love to see the music stop finally, ifc it would at all.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:22 | 1116361 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

Yeah, because after sereval hundred earthquakes, a tsunami, several partial/complete nuclear meltdowns, widespread hunger and the displacement of a few hundred thousand people, they've become so addicted to catastrophe that they'll intentionally bring a new one about....

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:35 | 1116799 stewie
stewie's picture

Exactly.  +10

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 07:29 | 1116270 oxalis_tuberosum
oxalis_tuberosum's picture

In case anyone missed it, here's an interesting quote from Kyodo interviewing an onsite worker who suggests that it is more than just concrete that was scattered by the hydrogen explosions :

Within the plant's premises, rubble with highly radioactive materials was scattered after hydrogen explosions at reactor building in the days after the quake. ''If they are removed soon by heavy machinery, work will be a lot easier but the operator (of the machines) will inevitably be exposed to radiation,'' the man said.

So looking on the bright side, maybe the fuel pools aren't as full as we feared. At least not any more.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 07:41 | 1116288 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

One of the other aspects of the Chernobyl accident was because it took the Swedes to inform the world an accident had taken place, it shattered even further the myth that the leaders were competent and in control.  Previously, people had feared and respected the party, but this broke the illusion of authority. I can imagine the younger generation seeing the model that served Japan since the war (political class, business class) is broken and has failed the nation.  

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:56 | 1116640 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

My guess it the younger generation already view their elders in this manner with rampant unemployment among young adults. This event is confirming their beliefs.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:47 | 1116859 flattrader
flattrader's picture

Conditions for workers at the plant are abysmal.

This will not get cleaned up anytime soon with commercial workers under these conditions.

Kaku is right.  They will have to bring in the military.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 07:31 | 1116273 GlassHammer
GlassHammer's picture

 I thought the Japanese recovery was going to pay for itself through the Krugman Window Fallacy. 

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 07:33 | 1116279 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

There's no buildings left to put the windows into...

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 07:30 | 1116276 Yikes
Yikes's picture

I guess nobody  told JP Morgans Japan trading desk.  Nikkei up 2.5% today.  Obviously this nuclear meltdown is a value proposition.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:01 | 1116321 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Did the JPM scum get the same message as the GS scum "You ain't leaving".  Facing a death sentance often brings out the truth.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 07:35 | 1116280 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

japan is looking at a long slide down. No way out of it. The nuclear stigma is a huge one.

No trust left in the system either and as for Japanese "perfectionism"... enough said.

They were an amazing insular island, they'll probably find their re-pair and re-surgence in that model.


Wed, 03/30/2011 - 07:37 | 1116282 Josephine29
Josephine29's picture

I think that you are right to criticise the attitude of the mainstream media and indeed many analysts Tyler. The view that Japan will recover in the blink of an eye looks ever more wide of the mark as events develop. Earlier this week Notayesmanseconomics pointed this out.

As to the underlying Japanese economy I have been bemused by the large number of economists who have rushed forward in the media to declare the scale of the crisis. I notice that their estimates have risen from 3% of Japan’s Gross Domestic Product to 6% without much of a mea culpa. They still do not know that and many of them should be ashamed of themselves. For example much of Japan’s car production is still disrupted and even such a benchmark as Sony has reported that it is stil suspending or reducing production at some of its Japanese plants due to parts shortages.


Only time will tell us the full extent of this crisis and the worst may yet be ahead of us.....

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 07:40 | 1116287 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

...the aftermath of a nuclear crisis.

Aftermath implies that the crisis is over -- this crisis is far from over!

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 07:45 | 1116292 TaxSlave
TaxSlave's picture

One thing that seems sure ... Operation Cover-Up is going to take a long, long time.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 07:46 | 1116294 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Supply chains around the world are looking for other sources of materials, components, chips.

Ford-no black paint

GM Shreveport LA-no pick'em up trucks

chips (I'm wondering how many fabs will be sacrificed if they have been black and can't move air)

- Ned

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 07:50 | 1116300 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

How could consumer spending be down when everyone is buying potassium iodine and bottled water?

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 07:55 | 1116305 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

"Mapping The Scenarios For The US Social Security and Healthcare Industry"


1) Because of wind patterns the US is currently getting radiation poisoning from radioactive particles that have been emitted into the atmosphere from Fukushima.

2) The air, water, and ground are currently being polluted. Your food sources and potable water currently have radiation in them from Fuckushima.

From .gov's perspective this is good for business in the USA.

Millions will be affected and lifespans will be reduced. Social security and pensions will not have to perform as promised.

The healthcare industry will benefit most as this pollution will surely make your insides start to rot and you will run to Dr. Stein, desperately trying to "buy more time".

The sheeples dilemma. There is dignity in silence.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 07:50 | 1116306 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

Disaster, spin, gerrymander, print money, juice equity futures, stabilize markets, spin more, print more....

As long as the public believes the bullshit, just buy the fucking dip.

Never underestimate the replacement power of equities within an inflationary spiral.

Period end.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 07:55 | 1116312 buzzard
buzzard's picture

Any examination of an economy which places consumer spending as having a major role in any successful economic "recovery" is bogus at the outset. It frustrates me to see discussions like this because the old paradigm thinking hangs on like a limpet impeeding any real progress at adapting to physical reality. It means that we are still blind to the truth. What we need is not old school 'economics' and 'politics' but to begin finding ways to mitigation and sustainability plans which let us down more gently.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:01 | 1116313 Blue Vervain
Blue Vervain's picture

Nuclear power stations require continuous processes to prevent a lapse into a destructive state, while nuclear arms are safe until actively and deliberately launched. I don't think I've missed any nuclear bombs accidently detonating. For this reason over time nuclear power will claim more lives than atomik warfare.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:06 | 1116333 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

How long is it going to take for the analysts to realize

that Boeing cannot build the dreamliner,

or anything else,

without critical parts from Japan,

and they are never, ever,  going to arrive?

Oh well, I can afford to sit on my shorts and wait.

yurs truly,

Long John Silver

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:05 | 1116335 max2205
max2205's picture

Futures hit 7400 last week Now 9800

BTFD no matter what

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:51 | 1116438 Guarded Pessimist
Guarded Pessimist's picture

Two things that raise GDP

Healthcare costs


We can never have a cure for cancer and never have peace because it would ruin the economy.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:54 | 1116447 cabernet
cabernet's picture

I wonder when everyone will come to realize that a huge chunk of Japan, 200 square miles perhaps will become uninhabitable. An area that is densely populated is some areas and a big rice growing area in others. Lets not forget that this is an important port area as well. The wealth destruction is enormous. How can this be good? Yea, lots of work will need to be done to rebuild, but money will have to be borrowed to do it. This money could have been used to advance the society, not keep it's head above water. What's the good in a little GDP when years of development have been wiped off the map?





Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:52 | 1116882 flattrader
flattrader's picture

They will "get it" in the next few weeks when the winds change.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 08:53 | 1116455 zero intelligence
zero intelligence's picture

"Wow, this nuclear thing is a big mess. Maybe we should ask the French or Americans for help."

"Yes, unfortunately, due to the tsunami, many of our resources have been destroyed. We could ask for help."

"But it would be embarassing, no? Like we can't handle our own problems."

"Hmmm, yes, very embarassing."

"How about if we just get that computer program that makes the stock market go up like magic? You know, the one the Russian guy stole. It must be good, he's in jail now you know."

"Oh, that would be great. When people see the stock market going up, they will assume that things are getting better, although, actually, they are not getting any better because we don't have any resources and we didn't ask for help."

"I agree. But how can we get them to give that to us?"

"How about ... we promise not to sell our Treasury bonds."

"That could work ... but if we don't sell the bonds, we don't have enough money to fix the tsunami/nuclear problems."

"We don't have to fix the problems, we just need to make the stock market go up. Then it will be just like we did something, and we'll still have our Treasury bonds too."

"Win - Win! Winner!"

"I'll call Mr. Geithner immediately."


Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:06 | 1116490 Campagnolo
Campagnolo's picture

Japan has been in a fuck up situation since WWII...they took cars and tecnology to the top but apparently it was enough...Japan is very vulnerable and they know that...Seriously, the USA don't have to worry much about Japan been a threat, not even China, even when they are 1.6 billion....for some reasons I will be a little more worried about Russia and the quiet Germany.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:11 | 1116496 camoes
camoes's picture

Bullish, BTF Uncertainty!


Wed, 03/30/2011 - 09:31 | 1116545 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Shit is about to get real, bitchez.

The Bernank and central banksters money affinitive ways notwithstanding, I do believe a window of fantasy for shorts will be opening soon.

Git you game on, playas.

Wed, 03/30/2011 - 10:21 | 1116745 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

At least some people in Japan are recognizing that there needs to be a massive relocation out of Tokyo with a dispersal of industries around the country to avoid the complete collapse that a 'big one' would cause if ( when) it hits Toyko. Good discussion here


Wed, 03/30/2011 - 21:36 | 1119836 Roger Knights
Roger Knights's picture

Regarding the decentralization of Japan and the vulnerability of Tokyo to an earthquake:

In 1995 Peter Hadfield's book, "Sixty Seconds that Will Change the World" examined the economic effect of a hypothetical huge earthquake that devastated Tokyo. I.e., one much worse than the current one. But his analysis may still have insights about this one. Here's a synopsis of the book, from Amazon, where cheap used paperback copies are available:

"In the 1990s Tokyo will start to experience earthquakes culminating in a catastrophe on the scale of the 1923 tremor that killed 140,000 people. This time however the effects of such an earthquake in Tokyo will be world-wide. The collapse of Japan's industrial production will lead to a major world recession together with a dramatic fall in currency values and world GNPs. Peter Hadfield, a Tokyo-based journalist and former geologist, has talked in detail to Japan's leading geologists, engineers and economists. He predicts what will happen during and after the earthquake, and at its effect on the world economy. He also looks at the psychology that leads millions of Japanese to ignore the danger signals - even now, a vast new city is being constructed in Tokyo Bay - and at the corruption that spurs such developments on."

Here's the link:

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!