This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Marc Faber: Relax, This Will Hurt A Lot

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Marc Faber closed out this week's Agora Financial Symposium with a speech that pretty much recapitulated the view that the end of the world is if not nigh, then surely tremendous dislocations to the existing socio-political and economic landscape are about to take place (with some very dire consequences for the US). His conclusive remarks pretty much summarize his sentiment best: "We've had a trend for most of the past 200 years: GDP of countries like
China and India went down while the West surged. That's now changed.
Emerging economies will go up, and your children in the West will have
a lower standard of living than you did. Absolutely. We won't sink to
the bottom of the sea. But other countries will grow much faster than
us. The world is very competitive, and the odds are stacked against us.
Americans, with their inborn arrogance, will not let it go that easily,
so there will be lots of tension going forward." While long-time fans of Faber will not be surprised by the gloom and doom (not much boom) here, anyone else who still holds a glimmer of hope that at the end of the day the CNBC spin may be right, is advised to steer clear of Faber's most recent thoughts.

And while we do not have the full presentation yet, the salient points have been recreated below courtesy of the Motley Fool. For those who desire a far more in depth presentation from the inimitable Mr. Faber, we direct you to his June 2008 capstone presentation: "Where is the boom, and the doom" - link here.

On reality: My views are not all that negative. I
think they're just realistic. I want to face reality. You have people
like Paul Krugman who thinks we should have another bubble to pull us
out of this. He actually said that. But he said the same thing in 2001.
And you know how that turned out.

On unintended consequences: The Fed doesn't seem to
have learned anything at all from its mistakes. Their current policy of
cutting rates to zero is designed to create sustainable growth, but
they've created larger and larger volatility in markets. There are many
unintended consequences of their actions.

The oil bubble of 2008 is a good example. In 2008, the price of oil
went ballistic, but the U.S. was already in a recession [it began in
Dec. 2007]. There was no rational reason oil should have gone
ballistic. The Fed's easy money just fueled a bubble. It was like a
$500 billion tax on consumers courtesy of the Fed. That's the added
amount that it cost you, and it helped push consumers over a cliff in
late 2008.

On the Fed: The Fed doesn't pay any attention to
asset bubbles when they grow. That's their official policy. But they
flood the system with cash when bubbles burst. They only care about
bubbles when they crash. It's a very asymmetric response and it has
many unintended consequences.

Letting bubbles inflate and then fighting them when they burst
actually worked for a while. That's what makes it dangerous. It worked
in the '90s. But you shouldn't read too much into this: This period was
assisted by unusually favorable conditions. From 1981 until early last
decade, commodities were in a bear market after a bubble in the '70s
and early '80s. And interest rates were falling throughout the '80s and
'90s, too. They almost never stopped falling. That made Fed policy look
like it was working.

Bubbles can still happen without expansionary monetary policy. In
the 19th century, you had bubbles in railroads, for example. But today,
the Fed has created a bubble in everything -- in every single asset
class. This is an achievement even for a central bank. Stocks.
Commodities. Bonds. Real estate. Gold. Everything goes up when the Fed
prints. The only asset that goes down is the U.S. dollar.

On deflation: I'm a believer that the stock market
lows of March 2009 will not be revisited. You have people like Robert
Prechter who think the Dow will collapse to 700 because of debt
deleveraging. Debt deleveraging could happen, but the Dow will not fall
because of monetary policy. The Fed will keep everything inflated in
nominal terms. And if the Dow does go to 700, you'll have more to worry
about than your investments. All the banks will be bust. The government
will be bust. You don't want cash if massive deflation happens. On the
contrary: It will be worthless. You have to think very carefully about
hardcore deflation.

On credit addiction: In a credit-addicted economy,
you don't need credit to actually fall for there to be problems. All
you need is a slowdown in the growth rate, and you get big problems.
Now, the government and the Fed are aware of this, so they are creating
debt through fiscal deficits and monetization. That creates a hugely
volatile environment. In 2008, government credit creation was inferior
to private credit contraction, and asset markets tanked. In 2009,
government credit creation was higher than private contraction, and
asset markets went ballistic. Lately, government credit creation has
slowed, and asset markets have gone down. Now, the Fed is aware of
this, and it's only a matter of time before it throws more money into
the system. I guarantee this.

On what the Fed will do from here on out: The
easiest way to fix our debt problems is with 6% inflation per year.
That bails out everyone in debt. Interest rates will stay at 0% in real
terms forever, in my opinion. If inflation is 5% per year, the Fed will
keep interest rates at 5%; that's how you get 0% real interest rates.
Now, we could have debt contraction in the private sector, but it
doesn't matter. It will be more than an offset with government debt
creation. So it's not a good idea to be all in cash and out of stocks.
Cash is very dangerous when central banks want real interest rates at
0%.

On the rest of the world: The U.S. today is much
worse off than it was 10 or 20 years ago compared with the rest of the
world. The Asians should thank the Federal Reserve for this. The Fed
practically created the emerging market economies. The Chinese pegged
its currency to the dollar in 1994, and until 1998 not much happened.
When the Fed began printing and boosting asset prices in 1998, there
was this huge debt growth, and U.S. consumers began spending at a
massive rate. That increased our trade deficit from $200 billion to
$800 billion. Of course, trade deficits have to be offset by trade
surpluses in other countries. So the Chinese began ratcheting up
production. Then their employment went up. Their wages went up.
Entrepreneurs began investing more money in capital spending. The Fed
is not the only factor that led to strong emerging market growth, but
it certainly was a major factor in it.

On delusions of grandeur: In the U.S., we still
think that we are the largest consumer market in the world. For some
services we are, but in general this is the wrong way to look at things.

There are huge differences in how statistics between countries are
produced. For one, the U.S. is the most leveraged. Other countries
factor this in. Also, consumption in the U.S. is 70% of GDP, but it's
almost all on domestic services. Spending on actual goods is only 20%
of consumption. In the U.S., we spend $600 billion a year on defense.
But $300 billion of this goes to personnel and retiree costs. In China,
the cost of personnel is basically nothing. When you adjust for
purchasing power, China probably spends about what the U.S. does on
military capital.

We also think that we have all the knowledge of the world. We think
that's our edge. But knowledge in countries with much larger
populations have the edge. Research now is being done in Asia because
it's cheaper there. Companies like Intel, IBM, and Microsoft are researching in Asia. It's just so much cheaper there. And they are
smarter than the U.S. in many ways, too.

h/t Ajay

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 07/26/2010 - 18:10 | Link to Comment I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

"It will be worthless. You have to think very carefully about hardcore deflation."

Sort of like hardcore porn with a soft actor.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:16 | Link to Comment TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Until the enevitable comes knocking on our doorsteps the Nay-Sayers will continue to claim victory as we have not crossed the finish-line, and we will never hear the end of it within public forums...conversely,if people the likes of Faber are correct, then there will be little or no public forums to speak of, and trolling through the history books to see who was right, who was wrong and how did it all come-about will be the last thing on people's agendas.

I know one thing for sure. It may take half a century or more, but people will eventually make no distinction between a Business Suit uniform and a Nazi SS uniform, they essentially represent the same thing.

If War is an extention of Politics by other means then, Politics is an extention of Economics by other means and further, Economics is an extention of Servitude by other means.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 23:12 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

"On deflation: I'm a believer that the stock market lows of March 2009 will not be revisited. You have people like Robert Prechter who think the Dow will collapse to 700 because of debt deleveraging. Debt deleveraging could happen, but the Dow will not fall because of monetary policy. The Fed will keep everything inflated in nominal terms. And if the Dow does go to 700, you'll have more to worry about than your investments. All the banks will be bust. The government will be bust. You don't want cash if massive deflation happens. On the contrary: It will be worthless. You have to think very carefully about hardcore deflation."

Interesting the same people who think the Fed inept, find it plausible the Fed will keep everything inflated...

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 06:59 | Link to Comment MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

The Zero Paradox. Lolz

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 18:33 | Link to Comment Celsius
Celsius's picture

Our tax dollars at work paying for blog propaganda trolls...

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 18:39 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

you are the case in his point

before you even think about it... the USSR had an arsenal of nukes and it got them exactly where?

the USSR leadership never used the nukes when they realized their ship was sinking.

are you sure about that our arrogant leadership will accept defeat and let it go?

I'm not

 

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 19:03 | Link to Comment unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

would agree with you there. there are some "war" republicans that aren't going to let their no-bid glory train simply go away. case in point on this one, my senator, the great the only and only senator from halliburton, susan collins.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 20:08 | Link to Comment Citizen of an I...
Citizen of an IKEA World's picture

You just made perhaps the most idiotic post on ZH I've ever seen.

 

But if that was sarcasm, bravo!

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:44 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

unwashed-can't figure out how suzie and olie are war rinos. please fill us in. - Ned

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 03:00 | Link to Comment FedUpGuy
FedUpGuy's picture

Sorry, I just can't let this stupidity pass.  Let's see what administrations were in office during the last 100 years of U.S. wars:

World War 1: Democrat Woodrow Wilson-- Campaigned as 'They guy who will keep us out of the war'

World War 2: Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt- Used the War to pull the U.S. out of the Depression that he prolonged for a decade

Korean War: Democrat Harry S. Truman

Vietnam: Democrat John F. Kennedy- Yeah, how'd this one work out?  Oh, and wasn't it a Republican that pulled us out of Vietnam?

Conflict in Yugoslavia: Democrat William Jefferson Clinton

Battle of Mogadishu: Bill Clinton kills 1500+ Somalis

Give me a break-- keep your anti-Republican attacks to yourself.

 

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 04:58 | Link to Comment sharpcedge
sharpcedge's picture

I think in the interest of staying fair and mentioning it all:

Iraq 1: Republican Bush I

Iraq 2: Republican Bush II

And there's talk of the US getting very interested in bombing Iran... if Obama looses the next elections (and he probably will he's so unloved in the US) then a Republican will take his place and create another war in the Middle East to potentially pull the US out of this economic crisis... who knows... but as you mention, war has been used before to pull an economy out of recession.

Just a thought.

Oh, and I'm not american so not Republican or Democrat...

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 06:23 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Change your own diaper then.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 08:58 | Link to Comment Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

Man, I just shake my head at your stupidity.  The world is reverting back to the 1800's with every tin pot dictator now feeling they can call the shots as the sherriff is leaving town. 

The world's townfolk will want to follow the sherriff as they have no backbone.  We are entering Gary Cooper's High Noon.

I agree with nmewn.  Change your own diaper.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 11:22 | Link to Comment FedUpGuy
FedUpGuy's picture

Absolutely right, but the original poster was arguing that Republicans are the warmongers, so he needed a little history lesson.

 

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 07:10 | Link to Comment grunion
grunion's picture

Nor are you a very accomplished student of U. S. comparative history

Tue, 08/03/2010 - 23:33 | Link to Comment TrulyStupid
TrulyStupid's picture

Comment on:  WW II pulled us out of a depression therefore all wars pull us out of depressions

Reality check: WWII is the only war that pulled ONE country out of depression and that was because:

Capital from the combatants fled to the US and was invested in production of real goods.

Wages were static, savings high, unemployment was minimal, taxes were high, dollars were backed by gold, prices were centrally controlled = manageable inflation

If we recreate these conditions, then we can pull ourselves our of depression. Engaging in another unfunded war, will only hasten insolvency.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 07:55 | Link to Comment BoeingSpaceliner797
BoeingSpaceliner797's picture

Poor crumbling left/right, Dem/'Pub, false paradigm didn't deserve the flogging you gave it, FedUpGuy.

Sun, 08/01/2010 - 19:50 | Link to Comment VegasBob
VegasBob's picture

Oh, and wasn't it a Republican that pulled us out of Vietnam?

 

Not exactly.  A Democratic Congress finally grew a pair and cut off the money for the Vietnam War.  So President Gerald Ford had no choice but to pack up and leave.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 07:11 | Link to Comment grunion
grunion's picture

Tell the complete story! You revisionist!

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 04:31 | Link to Comment RabidLemming
RabidLemming's picture

there is no right and left, no republican or democrat, no good or evil these are all just different faces of the same propaganda machine.  free your mind of you rediculous preconceptions and you won't be afraid of the dark any longer.

on the other hand, maybe there are 5 fingers.....

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 07:16 | Link to Comment MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

Claro. Full steam ahead for dialectical materialism.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:44 | Link to Comment fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

I have no doubt that the Kenyan in the White House will use nukes in support of his faith, Islam.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 02:05 | Link to Comment nobita
nobita's picture

obama is a lying sack of shit as far as im concerned, but i don´t think he is a muslim.

after all the army he commands is still at war with muslims. he would be killing his own, it makes no sense.

you should ask people from the middle east if they think he is on their side, they were suckered just like the rest of us by his cairospeech. and just like us i think they are quite disillusioned.

by "us" i mean the western world in general, i know a lot of readers here were not impressed with him.

russians you might remember also saw right thru him according to polls there. i guess they know when they are being lied to.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 07:24 | Link to Comment MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

Muslim, LoL. Complete stupidity brought to you by israelman.

Hey, every time I pass through the airport I just have to thank israel. Thank you for bringing your bullshit religious wars to the USofA. Thank you for giving us the TSA, the collar and the leash.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 18:37 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Take away oil and the US will be a bunch of pussies.  There!

In the future I'd advise against painting with a broad brush.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 19:50 | Link to Comment IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

 

As I wrote in a different thread, the growth story can be continued only if the US passed on the "burden" of consumption to an economy with real potential growth, read China. But, for China to step up to the plate, they will demand the privilege of having the reserve currency status if they are to open their consumer market. That would also cause the USD to devalue and will make the US economy competitive (of course we will get a taste of third world labor rates).

But, the US is addicted to the reserve status (think bloated defense spending and overfed financial sector) and will not give up even if it is the most logical step. The US Treasury Secretary has constantly exhorted China to increase domestic consumption but without agreeing to pass on the baton of reserve status. China will not open it's market without greater weightage for their currency (namely denomination of energy and commodities in yuan).

 

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 20:37 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

You certainly do believe in magic.  The problem is not whether the U.S. would concede (a little or a lot) to China.

The problem is- who would accept Chinese currency and chinese promises to pay ?

Deceit and Larceny do not a foundation make.

Perhaps you could give your children a little melamine laced milk.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:07 | Link to Comment laughing_swordfish
laughing_swordfish's picture

Kayman:

What about OUR currency and promises to pay?

The only difference between us and the Chinese in that regard is that we can inflate both away to the point of nominal default - something that they would do in a heartbeat were they to obtain Reserve Currency Status.

Remember, we can stiff our creditors either the hard way or the easy way. Outright default would have all sorts of unintended consequences, but not so cranking up the printing presses.

Only problem with "inflating" our way out of the debt crisis is that the "unintended consequences" of that are even worse....

 

KrvtKpt laughing swordfish

DKM Trading Division

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:27 | Link to Comment Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"The only difference between us and the Chinese in that regard is "

They still have enormous amounts of resources both within their own boundaries, as well as leased/purchased overseas.  I also consider their massive workforce (which appears to be more willing to work than others) to be a part of their resources.

I agree that they also carry a great amount of debt - but lets see what they spent their money on:

1) infrastructure.  Sure they built whole cities no one is living in - yet.  But if they get cut off from international funding, and their masses get unruly, give them a free apartment!

2) building factories.  Even after all of the foreign investors leave in disgust, their investment will stay.

3) developing their banking industry.  Instead of giving their banks free money to burn in prop trading, they expanded into different areas they couldn't before easy money made it possible.

Now, in the long run will this leave them on the top of the heap after a systemic, world-wide failure?  I don't think so, but they may end up higher in the pile than us or Europe.

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 15:35 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

...and massive energy / alternative energy structures. And instead of invading a country on false premise to try and get their resource, they just buy it. I hear that saves a little cash and a lotta lives.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:47 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

we grilled swordfish on the grille tonight-really tasty, thanks.  Matter of timing and who falls first, tonight, (er, yesterday) the swordfish got on the boat.  We're still here.

- Ned

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:21 | Link to Comment IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

Unfortunately, it could be said the same about the US re GMO and shipping of toxic junk the world over.

Of course, our fart always smells better :)

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:14 | Link to Comment Clancy
Clancy's picture

I get paid in RMB and I consider myself fortunate.

 

The Chinese government is ruthless and uncaring, but at least they aren't sucidally stupid. 

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:31 | Link to Comment vxpatel
vxpatel's picture

What if they don't want the burden of consumption...then what?

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 20:31 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

Take away Seer and there would be a shortage of non sequiturs.

Taking away oil (Middle East,especially) would be the best thing to happen for the U.S.

And stop bringing in Chinese crap.

Bingo- no more trade deficit. Americans would have to pull themselves up by their bootstraps, as they have always done.

And for Seer, while cheerleading for the tinpot dictators of the world, he can watch the grand edifices collapse in their crappy foundations.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 20:46 | Link to Comment Blankman
Blankman's picture

+1

whole heartedly agree.  China does not have a middle class to support any kind of foolish spending on damned stupid items they don't need.  America has a vast and foolish middle class who spends whether they have money or not.  

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:18 | Link to Comment Captain Obvious
Captain Obvious's picture

Your so wrong it's not even funny, China has the biggest emergine middle class on the planet. Yes a massive amount live below the poverty line, but massive investments in infrastructure and agriculture is change the lifes of these people day by day. And when I say investment I mean it, I heard reports on the news (I live in China) that they were investing 1.5 trillion or there around, in the rural areas and farming.

Now the main difference is really the amount of money you need to earn to be considered middle class in China, comparatively to the west it seems like they earn nothing. But 'nothing' goes along way here..

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:34 | Link to Comment Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

A lot of that investment was put up by local councils with more than their fair share of corruption as only they can do it in the Far East and, according to Bloomberg last night, about 25% of that 1.5 trillion is already bad debt.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:16 | Link to Comment Clancy
Clancy's picture

We're in a position to lecture other countries on corruption now?  Do you hear yourself?

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 15:41 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

here in america, where bigger is better, we like to keep our corruption on a massive national level

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 02:14 | Link to Comment Hedge Jobs
Hedge Jobs's picture

Captain, is that massive investment in infrastructure the same infrastructure that the chinese government is forcing the banks to write off 30% of the money they lent out to fund it becuase it is uneconomic?

Doesnt look like this massive investment in infrastrucure has been such a great investment. more like a massive fuck up to me.

people like you beleive this is "sutainable growth" i think you might be dissapointed.

 

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 11:38 | Link to Comment Mark Noonan
Mark Noonan's picture

Rural population:  US - 19%; China - 55%.

Population 0-14:  US - 20.2%; China - 19.8%.

Birth rate:  US - 13.83; China - 13.45.

Sex ratio:  US - 1.05 males/females; China - 1.11 males/females.

Infant mortality:  US - 6.22; China - 22.12.

China's massive and still mostly rural population is caught in a demograhic bind.  They are going to rapidly age and have a huge population of men who simply won't be able to marry and have children simply because China's anti-human "one child" policy has ensured that a generation of women were murdered in the womb.

These demographic facts tell the tale of what won't happen - there won't be the people necessary to change the harsh facts of China's true economic life - such things as the fact that only about 5% of rural homes have a flush toilet.

And as for their middle class - actually, they are the worst off; having fewest children, aging fastest and, given the various bubbles, most heavily over-leveraged.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Suisse
Suisse's picture

So China's population can increase indefinitely? Population must age, otherwise it is increasing. When is it too much, 2 billion, 3 billion, infinite growth forever?

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:28 | Link to Comment Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

Yes.  But with all due respect, the government in China spends it on behalf of the middle class on empty cities the world's largest (and emptiest) shopping center and a whole mittful of bridges to nowhere.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:17 | Link to Comment Clancy
Clancy's picture

This is what happens when you get all your news from zerohedge. 

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 23:16 | Link to Comment Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

Nah.  I did not "junk" you but the overbuilding stories are the stuff of legend in the MSM including Bloomberg and the NYT, hardly fever swamps of deflationist paranoia.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 07:47 | Link to Comment Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Hedge Fund Manager Hugh Hendry Brief Report on the state of the Chinese Economy in Early 2009

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ektMQGbW3wk

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:04 | Link to Comment ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

Marc Faber doesn't here directly state that the middle class no longer is a viable socioeconomic reality. This is not a bad thing. The bubblicious middle class ignored the lessons of the 1920's and 30's and played grasshopper. Guess what? Aesop still has his Fables. Embrace reality by whatever shaman you need to effect the transformation; be assured you are way ahead of the Pack.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:49 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

dude-we have experience with the "take away foreign" stuff.  Smoot-Hawley?  Hubcap theory?  - Ned

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:50 | Link to Comment IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture


Taking away oil (Middle East,especially) would be the best thing to happen for the U.S.

And stop bringing in Chinese crap.

 

Easier said than done. The USD works in the context of a global trade -- if others can't "earn" USD, the USD reserve status will be caput. The commodity countries accept USD not out of love (fear, yes) or because the expectation of being able to import anything from the US, but because they expect to import from other countries (India, China). If the US restricts imports, the global trade game is over and we will be back to bilateral trade arrangements (already it is beginning to happen at the margins such as China and Brazil agreeing to trade in the respective currencies).

The only way to keep this global trade game going a little longer is to continue importing ourselves to irrelevance. Either way, the future is grim.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 21:56 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

There is no Global trade- only one way trade.  The U.S. has been played for a bunch of pansies by China.

The bill for Global trade has arrived- the American Middle Class will be paying long term debt for short term junk, and of course purported American corporations (in name only) and the Wall Street elite get to carry on with the skim.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 07:13 | Link to Comment grunion
grunion's picture

Please....Come say that to my face.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 18:38 | Link to Comment The_Euro_Sucks
The_Euro_Sucks's picture

The west produces what of the breadbasket again?

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 19:07 | Link to Comment Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Debt.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:08 | Link to Comment ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

Real debt cannot be repaid with Uncle Ben's helicopter dreams. The trillions never existed and have the collective effect of a stray neutrino from a dying star passing throuh your torso at the instant you may read this.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 19:16 | Link to Comment fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

Wheat, Beef, Chicken, Soy, AlfaAlfa, Corn, Fruits, Rice (surprise, surprise ?? - Asian Grain)

etc.... etc... etc...Food wise there is no compettion for USA.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 19:58 | Link to Comment DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

Rather than junking you (anonymous), I thought it better to reply.

Some but perhaps not you are aware that perhaps the single greatest public health problem in the US today is obesity and overweight.  Oh, and we and our marvelous food companies have infected most of the world with that problem.  So we're #1 in food.  Great!  Let's just sit on the competition:  anyone remember Haystacks Calhoun?

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 20:32 | Link to Comment gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Doc, your personal opinion of fat people really doesn't weigh in on this conversation. Yes, there are pigs out there, why would that make you want to "junk" anyone who believes USA is the bread basket of the world?

Your remark, however, is "junk"able.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:35 | Link to Comment traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Perhaps he was alluding to how our mega-food corporations have processed food so much using subsidized commodity crops that we have narrowed our bio-diversity, strained our environment, and dumbed down the citizens with processed crap that only is passed off as food at the $1 menus. See the documentary Food Inc. Google the aquifer in the Great Plains (don't know the name). Or the round-up resistant weeds. 

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:47 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

+++ GMO crops don't equal healthy foods, nor does processed, additive & artificial "fud stuffs". . .

I can also recommend watching "King Korn". . .

http://www.kingcorn.net/

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:56 | Link to Comment fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

aquifer in the Great Plains

Ogallala

Almost gone now.

If I turn down the three center pivots on my fields this year, we just might get another 2000 years of use out of it.

 

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 00:03 | Link to Comment uraniuman
uraniuman's picture

That there's funny- good sarcasm.  Where I pump, we can't make the table drop no matter how many BILLION  gallons are pumped (lake states)

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 10:24 | Link to Comment ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

Real food is real hard to find...grow your own or contract with local farmer/farmer's market co-op. It started as medicine, and ended up food. How can live on dead food is the question!

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:17 | Link to Comment fearsomepirate
fearsomepirate's picture

Can't get fat without food, so I believe you have proved the man's point.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:50 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

"Some but perhaps not you are aware that perhaps the single greatest public health problem in the US today is obesity and overweight."

Michelle? Is that you?

Friggin fascist's at every turn.

You run out of tampons? Try a carrot, they're supposed to be good for you.

 

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:52 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

scrip-doc: I don't get it, are 1/6 of the American children undernourished, or are they obese?  Please expand, we'd like to know.

- Ned

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:32 | Link to Comment Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

OK, that is freaking funny. I have often wondered that as well. Its not because of WIC either because they can ONLY buy healthy. So anyone that is obese and on WIC should lose their benefit?

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 23:41 | Link to Comment juangrande
juangrande's picture

Both!

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 01:39 | Link to Comment fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

People are fat in USA because of life style
No one walks much and there is no hardship
Even farmers look fat which is an anomoly
Compared to other farmers of the world.

Also it would be good to restrict any meat
to twice a week since protein take
Longer to digest. Also good to exercise
for 30 mins @ 6 miles/hr

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 20:20 | Link to Comment Sisyphus
Sisyphus's picture

Wheathttp://www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/statistics/wheattable.html

Cattlehttp://www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/statistics/cattle.html

Beef: The world's largest exporters of beef are Brazil, Australia, the United States. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beef)

Cornhttp://www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/statistics/corntable.html

Soybeanshttp://www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/statistics/soybeantable.html

Rough RiceAsia accounts for most of the world's exports. (http://www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/rr.html)

Rice: World production of rice has risen steadily from about 200 million tonnes of paddy rice in 1960 to over 600 million tonnes in 2004. Milled rice should be about 68% of paddy by weight, although use of antiquated milling equipment in many countries means this conversion factor can sometimes be much lower. In 2004, the top four producers were China (26% of world production), India (20%), Indonesia (9%) and Bangladesh (5%).

World trade figures are very different, as only about 5–6% of rice produced is traded internationally. The largest three exporting countries are Thailand, Vietnam, and the United States. Major importers usually include Bangladesh, the Philippines, Brazil and some African and Persian Gulf countries. Although China and India are the two largest producers of rice in the world, both countries consume the majority of the rice produced domestically, leaving little to be traded internationally. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rice)

Fruits: A bit dated (http://www.fas.usda.gov/htp/Presentations/2004/World%20Fresh%20Fruit%20Market%20(08-04).pdf). China is the world’s largest fruit producer, producing 19 percent of the world’s fruit in 2003. The European Union (EU) is the world’s second largest producer, with 14 percent of the world’s production. The third largest fruit producer is India, where 12 percent of the world’s fruit was grown in 2003.

Largest Producershttp://factoidz.com/the-worlds-largest-producers/

Largest Consumershttp://factoidz.com/the-worlds-largest-consumers/

Agriculture in USA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_the_United_States)

Agriculture in China (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_China)

Today, India ranks second worldwide in farm output. Agriculture and allied sectors like forestry and logging accounted for 16.6% of the GDP in 2007, employed 52% of the total workforce[1] and despite a steady decline of its share in the GDP, is still the largest economic sector and plays a significant role in the overall socio-economic development of India.

India is the largest producer in the world of milk, cashew nuts, coconuts, tea, ginger, turmeric and black pepper.[2] It also has the world's largest cattle population (281 million).[3] It is the second largest producer of wheat, rice, sugar, groundnut and inland fish.[4] It is the third largest producer of tobacco.[4] India accounts for 10% of the world fruit production with first rank in the production of banana and sapota.[4] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_India)

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 20:39 | Link to Comment tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

"India is the largest producer in the world of milk"

and look how they do it:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amul

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:51 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

thanks for saving me the time Sisyphus. . . great post!

amrka - you're not #1 any more, time to wake up from your dreams.

[edit: ooooh tip e. - not the dreaded "co-op"!!! lol, another good link]

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 23:42 | Link to Comment Kali
Kali's picture

Yuppers.  Also, the US would not be able to produce the food it does without oil, or, should I say, without cheap oil.  And LOTS of subsidies.

As far as obesity and hunger go, you CAN be obese and be malnourished.  Cheap food is not good food.  Good food is not cheap.  Good work Sisyphus and Cathartes Aura.

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 15:54 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

well said

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 07:18 | Link to Comment grunion
grunion's picture

Catch a clue, it's about efficient production where the U.S. excels. We do not have to use all our food to feed our producers.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 01:35 | Link to Comment Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Thank you Sisyphus !!!

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 13:53 | Link to Comment maddy10
maddy10's picture

Yeah Oily wheat, oily beef,oily everything

Breadbasket growing straight out of middle east!

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 18:51 | Link to Comment thesapein
thesapein's picture

Dude, you just called yourself out as a complete idiot. 

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 19:12 | Link to Comment fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

agree 90% except the pussy part.

He is misleading about Asian Tigers. Innovation is still in the west.

America is the bread basket of the world

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 19:14 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

And what good is "innovation" without resources?  Or, maybe you're thinking about the innovation such as took place in the financial sector?

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 19:26 | Link to Comment fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

What resources for High Tech Innovation from USA - Networking Products(Cisco, HP, Juniper),

Consumer Electronics(Apple, Dell,...), Software (Microsoft, Oracle, Sybase, Adobe.......), Pharmaceutical(JNJ, Pfizer, ......), Planes & Armaments(Lockheed, Boeing, Raytheon....)

THough a non-American I will not under-estimate USA. People here only think about toxic Finance's hold on these wealth producing industries

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 23:01 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

You're confusing IDEAS/PROCESSES with resources.  That's a pretty common thing, so you're excused for being confused.

Again, if you don't have the energy and you don't have the materials, "technology" is nothing but scribble on the back of a napkin!  It's like having a cake recipe but no ingredients- lot-o-good that will do you: yes, you might say "hey, you doomer, you're overlooking our ability to SELL that recipe to others!" OK, fine, but what if they are in the same ingredient-less household, they're also resource challenged?  That's the case for the entire world today (and for the future as well).

And, for those still holding out for technological miracles, just look around at what the cutting edge technologies require for input stock- increasingly harder to acquire PHYSICAL resources, like rare earth metals.

Further consider that things don't gain traction without "economies of scale" boosting them, which means that technologies have to result in mass production.  Are you (folks) confident that there are sufficient PHYSICAL resources available?  NOTE: you think that BP and the like really love drilling in Gulf waters for the hell of it?  Of course not!  This should make it all too clear that our key resources are depleting.

But yeah, sure, there are plenty of excellent napkin sketchers running around... now then, if only they could actually produce something...

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 01:19 | Link to Comment steve2241
steve2241's picture

One word :) : synthetic-rare-earth-metals!

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 10:28 | Link to Comment ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

Talk is cheaper. If you think you can't, you are right.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Suisse
Suisse's picture

3/4th of the hardware that went into this PC was manufactured in Taiwan. I'm not sure what is even designed in the U.S. I have "Patriot" brand RAM and even that is made in Taiwan, ironically enough.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 07:23 | Link to Comment grunion
grunion's picture

The ability to create and innovate is most certainly a resource. Heard the term "brain drain"?

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 19:25 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

More accurately " the GMO bread basket".  Monsanto is interested in your corpse.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:55 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

de-junked for truth-telling. . .

just because they refuse to label GMO doesn't mean it's not "here". . .

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:39 | Link to Comment Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

Agreed DE-JUNK. Robert Shapiro is going to kill us one way or another. If he sits on the board you know its bad for you.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 23:03 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Add me to the DE-JUNKED tally as well (which, by my accounts give you a positive count! more than anyone here has EVER had!).

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 02:43 | Link to Comment Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

I too would de-junk you if we had such an option.  The lack of GMO labeling is yet another example of who's really running this country.  If they (i.e. GMOs) are so good, then clearly lable products containing them and convince us why we should buy them.

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 16:02 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

another dejunk vote. Millions Against Monsanto.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 01:24 | Link to Comment Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Trillions!

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 09:08 | Link to Comment DarkAgeAhead
DarkAgeAhead's picture

Same here on de-junking.  Monsanto must be eliminated.  GMO's and the horrific monoculture industrial agriculture created...simply can't be sustained.  It's faltering now, in terms of productivity and output in ever larger percentages.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 12:24 | Link to Comment Suisse
Suisse's picture

GMOs are highly productive, the dislike for them is not grounded in science.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 13:49 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

if GMO fud is so good for human health, prove it with the science reports that are NOT funded by the industry pushing the products.

and label the damn fud so informed people can make a choice - is that not what a "free" nation does?

yeah, I know, amrkns aren't "free," just heavily discounted. . .

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 14:07 | Link to Comment maddy10
maddy10's picture

Yeah right

Science will authoritatively confirm effects of GM foods in scientific journals in 2100AD

But I don't know how it would help your grand children with 4 arms and 4 legs?

Search Thalidomoide online; GM foods should undergo same testing as pharma drugs do or else we will be gambling with our future

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 23:00 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

please don't get me started on the pharma drugs, or the FDA. . .

I don't trust any corporate food - just label it so I can make an informed choice.

(which won't happen, so we all work from that premise)

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 23:04 | Link to Comment DarkAgeAhead
DarkAgeAhead's picture

Exactly on labeling.  That it's not labeled is itself a sign of deep corruption of government by industry.

I'd rather not become Round Up Ready.

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 16:03 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

being round up ready is like being ready to be rounded up

Wed, 07/28/2010 - 22:44 | Link to Comment DarkAgeAhead
DarkAgeAhead's picture

Absolutely.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 22:59 | Link to Comment DarkAgeAhead
DarkAgeAhead's picture

Highly productive, undoubtedly.  Highly vulnerable, yep.  Highly reliant on biocides, yep again.  That productivity, decreasing each year, you bet.

But you should research further on the "dislike", i.e. potential adverse health consequences.  Unless of course you trust the FDA unquestioningly...

http://www.grist.org/article/2009-12-16-monsanto-GMO-safety-health/

http://truefoodnow.org/campaigns/genetically-engineered-foods/

http://arizonaadvancedmedicine.com/articles/genetically_modified_foods.html

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 19:14 | Link to Comment Close 2 the Edge
Close 2 the Edge's picture

That might even be relevant if the "bread basket" was still family farms.  It isn't, most have been bought out by multi-national concerns (try to compete with a corporation that doesn't have to deal with death taxes on things sometime, a huge reason families are forced to sell out...).  We all know how patriotic the multi-nationals are..

You can also add that many of these countries are buying farm land with their surplus $$’s.

If you had any clue how unsecure your food supply is and who owned it you wouldn’t bother posting such ignorant crap here.

 

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 19:16 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Amen to that, brother/sister!

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 20:38 | Link to Comment Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

+1

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:04 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

good post Close2 - I'll add a quick link to the mix:

According to data compiled by the US-based International Food Policy Research Institute, Saudi Arabia has concluded a string of agreements in recent months, most recently approaching Tanzania in April to lease a 500,000-hectare (1.2 million acres) tract of farmland for rice and wheat production.

Indian government-backed farming companies have pursued land in a half-dozen African countries. Chinese corporations have sought a succession of arrangements to make use of land in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, and Zambia. Meanwhile, South Korea snapped up 690,000 hectares in Sudan. In fact, Sudan is a particular target country, with Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar all pursuing deals there. A mooted Qatari deal in Kenya has prompted criticism from land rights activists there.

where once there was conquest and colonialism, nationstates now just go shopping for "new" land. . .

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/2009/0708/p06s16-wogn.html

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 19:21 | Link to Comment DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

I've often thought the same thing about China and India. Having worked in the field of Computer Science for the past 20 years I've worked with a lot of Chinese and Indians. They are very bright, brighter than me for sure, but the cliche is very much true: they are not creative. And when push comes to shove all the design was done here and the brute force was done offshore.

When the dollar collapses and Chinese and Indian engineers are too expensive to hire, the US will start to finally pay domestic engineers more and will pull a lot of lawyers and doctors into engineering because that's where the money will be.

One thing is for sure, if the US catches a cold China and India will catch a fever of that I am sure. Just look at what happened in 2008.

Other than that I'm in total agreement with Faber. The US is going to have to take a huge bite of a sh*t sandwich in the next 10 years. And you know what? We f'ing deserve it because our country is drunk on cheap credit and run by a bunch of fat self serving bureaucrats. Everyone has forgotten what made this country great and we deserve everything that is about to happen to us.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 19:59 | Link to Comment DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

There's a bit of unintended arrogance in this meme that you repeat that they're uncreative.

Just you wait . . .

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 20:51 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

Think, think hard !!! Or I shall beat you. Your quota of original  thoughts for today has not  been filled.... Oh yeah, you're right- original thoughts are treason..

For all of America's problems- China is but an imposter. 

It will not happen overnight but the free ride China has been on, will end.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 01:25 | Link to Comment Bonesetter Brown
Bonesetter Brown's picture

Too funny.  Do much business in Asia, Doc?

I know of several companies of tech leaders in AsiaPac whose management teams actively seek out talent in US (through opening offices or usually through M&A) precisely because THEY believe their university systems do not create the kind of engineer who produces breakthrough innovation.

I guess they are successful despite their belief in this arrogant meme!

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 01:26 | Link to Comment Bonesetter Brown
Bonesetter Brown's picture

<double post>

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:01 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

darkmath-we have same issues: takes 10 on the Cleveland team to do what a Red Sox type would do in 1/3 of her time (and the women engineers are much more vocal about it than the guys).  Then rework and explanation.  Then, when the complaints start, the local manager goes non-linear.  But during the 2008+ downturn, IBM, HPQ, Dell, others pulled in their "flat" nonsense.  We've been behind that curve, to our detriment.

ORI, any thoughts?  We also see that, once we get someone in Bangalore or Mumbai (sp? today) up to speed, competent, able to actually progress a design vs. having to be told each step (which would be a natural internal move), they go across the street and, well, to coin a phrase, "Wash, Rinse, Repeat."

- Ned

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:10 | Link to Comment ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

That reap and sow stuff just keeps coming.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:19 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I lived in SE Asia 4 years and call baloney on your comment about them not being creative/innovative.

Honda, Toyota, and a host of other auto companies innovated well enough to put Detroit on the ropes...were it remains today.

Sony was and is the best tv ever produced...was it designed in the USA?

Kiwasaki builds decent motorcycles as a marketing tool for their real business, steel and shipbuilding...of course they lost a lot of biz to Korean and Chinese shipbuilders who innovated well enough to give the Japanese tough competition.

China has ONE motorcycle production plant that produces 10,000,000 motorcycles per year (none larger than 250cc), almost all sold in India and other SE Asian markets. Did it not take some innovation to build a production plant that size and get it up and running?  

I am tired of the cliche...SE Asians are not innovative. If you have not been there, don't speak the language, have not worked with them, then you do not have the experience to form an opinion...all you have is a  well worn cliche. 

SE Asian countries are clever enough to let the West innovate and then steal the designs...saves lots of money on R & D.

SE Asian countries have a lot of problems, no doubt...but making a flat statement that they are for some reason (culture? skin color?) incapable of innovation is dumb.

If you simply read a little Chinese History you will find out that China was an enormous empire when people in Britain were still living in mud hovels...and the only people in America were Native Americans. The Chinese were drilling for and using crude oil before any other country figured out what to do with the stuff!  

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:36 | Link to Comment vxpatel
vxpatel's picture

They did create Hinduism, Budhism, Shintoism...Art of War....etc...etc.etc

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 23:01 | Link to Comment Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

According to my daughter when she was 6 yrs old they created absolutely everything she could turn over. She is 15 now but still remembers when she got on her "made in China" kick. She noticed the made in china sticker a few times and it sparked her curiosity so she spent about a year with the habit of flipping everything over and loved to say "yep, made in China" to me just to be right. It was way more than I ever would have realized.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 23:41 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

When I was a kid I had this rubber alligator that read on its underbelly "Made in Kong Hong"!   Apparently one needed to have a special decoder ring, which I did not have, to translate this :-)

But, the other thing that Americans are good at, and that's relocating factories outside of the US...

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 23:54 | Link to Comment Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

Taxes. Kinda like Kerry hiding his boat in RI to skip out on $471,000 tax after voting to raise taxes in Mass. So now he is a tax evader and a Hypocrite. I'm not being partisan either, I don't care that he is democrat because some republicans are guilty of the same thing, I'm sure. I care that he voted to raise taxes and then cheated to avoid paying them.

 

Edited because i"m not finished with Kerry! I'm sure the energy taxes he is proposing in his new bill won't apply to him either.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 19:45 | Link to Comment barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

I think that is the American arrogance he was talking about.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 20:54 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

So Barkingbill

What do you call threatening to dump U.S. debt ?  What do you call all the crap sent to the West ???  What do you call the little North Korean Puppet that China pulls out whenever they want to pretend to help out.

Not Arrogance of course.  Only Americans are arrogant.  Jeez- put your thinking cap on.

 

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 23:48 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

That's all that you could come up with?

Kim Jung-il makes for splendid theatre, much more than the US's sub-par leaders!

China, you'd think that the way Americans worship war that they'd idolize the inventors of the first real bomb (dynamite)!  And herein lies the real difference; with the Chinese you have they apply for constructive purposes, whereas with the Americans it's always out of a defense contrator's lab and usually applied for purposes of war, peaceful war purposes of course!

Every empire was once at the top of its game, until it wasn't.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 22:05 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

Constructive and defensive purposes like Tibet

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 08:26 | Link to Comment Freebird
Freebird's picture

Defence Kayman, defence. Think about it.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:05 | Link to Comment hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

I have to agree.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:22 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

You need only pay taxes and die...You do not have to agree.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 19:54 | Link to Comment johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Yup, that's why all the smart money is running, actually FLEEING the U.S. before capital controls are the law in 2012.

Yup, that's why all the smart money is parking it arses in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, and Mumbai.

Yup, that's why you are posting here and not working on your knees under Cramer's desk.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 20:11 | Link to Comment PBRmeASAP
PBRmeASAP's picture

Oh yes, and in addition to the food, the US has something called the Constitution, which has a Value of what, 50-100 Trillion?

Europe is class-ridden & racist; where an Obama could never have be elected...Half of 'em are still monarchies after all! Asia? Well, we shall see...

Before everyone jumps on the Faber bandwagon, I suggest reading the Constitution, and the Declaration of Independence... There is a strong cultural memory in the US of the ideals written in those documents.  Also remember, in the US, virtually everyone is an immigrant or a descendant of one... so our families broke their ties with Europe, Africa, or Asia, whether it was last year or 300 years ago. The US has the genetics of the intellectual and physical elite of the world, to state it simply...If you've never witnessed a citizenship ceremony, I'd suggest you do so before you write off the USA.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 20:41 | Link to Comment tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

death to America, long live america?

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 20:55 | Link to Comment PBRmeASAP
PBRmeASAP's picture

tip e.canoe. Interesting name... Should one reply by asking, "And Tyler too." Why did you pick your name? Must be some reason.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:11 | Link to Comment ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

Tippecanoe and Tyler too!

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:25 | Link to Comment tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

i'm a tyler, she's a tyler, you're a tyler too!

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 14:17 | Link to Comment maddy10
maddy10's picture

Remember, 'In death, we have names'- Project May he he m

-Uselessmassofprotoplasm

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 20:47 | Link to Comment Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

While I would like to believe that is true, there is no common goal, no common asperation in America other than individual wealth. The people of the US have had their independence, work ethic and creativity weaned out of them by the media, government, educational system, megacorporations and banks. It is like they are all colluding to make us weaker and less focused than we can be. We are not what the people who came to this country were. We are that 3rd generation business where the grandchild of the founder does not have the desire or ethic to be successful.

We need to struggle to be able to show what we can do and the vast majority of us have never had to struggle.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:23 | Link to Comment fearsomepirate
fearsomepirate's picture

Cultural memory doesn't mean much when the federal government is strangling entrepreneurs to death with government-imposed startup costs and regulations, killing the dollar with its inflationary policies, creating such a bizarre array of laws that whether or not you're in jail depends only on whether or not a prosecutor has decided to target you, and keeping skilled immigrants out of the country out of some idiotic "they took our jobs" 18th-century, protectionist rationale.

 

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 23:53 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Yeah!  Fucking regulations!

Drill Baby Drill!

Off-balancesheet investment vehicles, yeah, the more the better we'll be.

The problems aren't for the big corporations, for it is They who are writing in the regulations (and in seeing that agencies are understaffed [by buying politicians who will cut staffing]).

But, enough of this shit.  I'm against everything BIG!  Government, corporations, whatever! (unless it's a natural, self-sustaining entity/thing).

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:50 | Link to Comment traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

We are very far from that original document. Resetting to that point would take a lot of pain. 

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:11 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

tj-lot of pain--I concur.  and would be worth it imho.  I put a bunch of kids into stressful situations in early '90's and, y'know what? they did really well.  So I don't buy into the "we can't do it" commentary the least little bit.  And, well, we have a pool of combat vets who are young and have been (figuratively, maybe literally) spit upon when they've come home.  So I remain with good hope.

- Ned

(OT-I was at your Cambridge, MA store last Sat.  Great place, nice CA wine, great food.  Madame spent $200 for what would have cost us at least 50% more, so another anecdote of deflation here).

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 00:05 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

And, well, we have a pool of combat vets who are young and have been (figuratively, maybe literally) spit upon when they've come home. 

Fuck the military reference, we've got plenty of people in all sorts of low-end jobs being spit on, where is sympathy for Them?

Only those who side with the power of the status quo and its military machine would resort to slipping in this kind of propaganda: the spitting sory was proven to be false, more (false) propaganda by TPTB.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 06:49 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Seer, Kerry is my senator, not of my doing.  You remember, "botched joke"--currently running No. 1 as the name of his new yacht that he's berthing in Newport to avoid taxes.  My military reference is that I've had experience with young men and women who were misunderestimated, and the current crop serving are even better.

And Breitbart hasn't had anyone collect on his $100k offer, but I wasn't talking about that.

Is there such a thing as "true" propaganda?  Is it when they misquote Harry "this war is lost" Reid using the actual sound clip in its entirety?

I first read "Reville for Radicals" in '70.  Perhaps you need a refresher?

- Ned

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:25 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Didn't George Bush claim that the Constitution was 'just another god-damned piece of paper'?

Hey, I love the Constitution... Maybe you should be discussing it with Bush?

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 23:08 | Link to Comment fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Whever junked this post has issues.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 20:51 | Link to Comment New Survivalist
New Survivalist's picture

Hahahahahaaaaa. Faber is a moron. Wow. I must listen to armchair blogger then. Thanks for the bright point of light, asshole.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:33 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

China Economy, like almost all Asian Economies... if cut off from the outside World completely would only drop a few percentage points.. which are huge, but no collapse to be sure... nothing close.

"The economy of Asia comprises more than 4 billion people (60% of the world population) living in 46 different states. Six further states lie partly in Asia, but are considered to belong to another region economically and politically."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Asia

The number of new consumers.. with cash on hand... if memory serves $15k per head? verse credit maxed out... well I am sure you see the difference. This provides a significant cushion for China (not all of Asia pencils out that nicely I am sure).

“..a country impoverished by a preference for liquidity”

http://home.wlu.edu/~smitkam/286/pdf/RiskSavings.pdf

Which is changing of course, daily.

But your point that China, who now imports more than they export... would wilt and die minus U.S. consumer dollars... now if you are talking about pulling out all investment monies... that pool should be almost dried up, save the re-investment dollars earned. Which the scope and scale of would make anyone wonder why we are having such a hard time at home?

 

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 00:10 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

China Economy, like almost all Asian Economies... if cut off from the outside World completely would only drop a few percentage points.. which are huge, but no collapse to be sure... nothing close.

I think that you'd think otherwise, at least when talking about the short to mid term, as they import a hell of a lot of energy.  Pull the power plug and things will get rather messed up there...

There are only a few countries that could manage for more than the short-term if cut off from the rest of the world. But, just about every country is going to be screwed when the global economy collapses.  Those with the least enregy demands will fare better than those with the most.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 14:21 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I agree to some extent... and I am no Professional pen man... plainly I was refering to T.V.'s / Computers / DVD Player imports / exports as revenue injected into the economy of Asia and how the flow retail items would / could be a draw in the event that production was not needed for any reason... considering I was speaking in hypo's and now I am fucking half a page in on a response to a hypo....

 

Yes, I am an energy buff... yes power does make the world go right round doesnt it? good for you... read more of my posts before responding to me again.. the common thread keeps me for righting you of completely just yet.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:42 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Thinking outside the norm there is no winning and losing.

No good and bad, except for moral ones.

Unlimited junks?

Platinum, bitcheszez!!!!

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 22:42 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ the usual $1500 Mr Lennon.

Platinum, my platinum.  Bought another another oz today.  Mmm, good for now...

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 18:28 | Link to Comment spinone
spinone's picture

We rested on our industrial laurels from WWII for long enough, I guess

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 18:28 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

so much cheaper to cut and paste there.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 19:56 | Link to Comment thesapein
thesapein's picture

another self glorified American?

We copied all sorts of stuff:

paper, printing press, bank note, gunpowder, bomb, crossbow, hand cannon, rocket launcher, flame thrower, land mine, chemical warfare, compass, manned flight (kites), seismograph, science of predicting earthquakes (see 1976 Tangshan earthquake example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Tangshan_earthquake), blast furnace, cast iron, co-fusion steel, gas cylinder, gas pipes (used bamboo), belt drive, chain drive, borehole drilling, rotary fan, bulkhead, fishing reel, pinhole camera, etc.

And now we say they beat us in innovation only because it's cheaper to R&D in China?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!