March Non Farm Payrolls: +162K, Below Consensus, Unemployment Rate 9.7%, Ex-Census, Weather and Birth-Death NFP Change Is -67K

Tyler Durden's picture




 
0
Your rating: None
 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 04/02/2010 - 08:40 | 284074 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Well, I don't know about you, but Bloomberg said this is a *great* report.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 08:47 | 284079 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

BB utilizes the grading on a curve methodology when it comes to interpreting economic data....

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 14:33 | 284520 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

lol...curves are so...Gaussian.

Sat, 04/03/2010 - 12:14 | 285132 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

+1 buy, buy, buy !!!

Sat, 04/03/2010 - 07:27 | 285036 B9K9
B9K9's picture

**Wondering** I enjoyed reading your late posts. Since this thread is becoming stale, I'm going to post a reply here in the off chance it might catch your eye.

When I (and I presume a few others) refer to those who do not understand the workings of the machine, I am not referring to the obvious surface level events we see transpiring on a daily basis. Nor am I positing an opinion on the effectiveness of the mass propaganda campaign designed to encourage people to resume leveraging their various portfolios (or lack thereof).

No, what I am addressing is the lack of understanding regarding the basic underlying nature of our money-credit system. That is, the absence of recognition that the ultimate purpose of our credit-lending system is to transfer all productive assets to a few. This results from the inevitable outcome of the exponential function of compounding principal+interest that dictates, over time, that all underlying collateral is forfeited.

Full.Stop:This.Is.The.Reason.For.The.Entire.Exercise.

This game has been repeated countless numbers of times over thousands of years. Riddle me this: why does the world's leading theological tome concern itself with numerous prohibitions regarding a certain business practice? What does it have to do with the real juicy stuff like coveting some forbidden ass, or taking out an annoying neighbor? Can we, by inference, assume that perhaps various authors, from ages long past, might have been issuing warnings they believed to be of critical importance to future and unborn generations?

My concern is not to read the people's mood. I care not a whit how they may or may not feel because it has absolutely no bearing on the final outcome of the game. That's why I believe it's an utter waste of time to participate in any level of political activity or discourse. The sheep can rail, whine & complain all they want, but awareness doesn't prevent the stun-bolt gun from being applied to their cranium.

The end results we are currently experiencing were already baked in when this short-term cycle was begun some 65 years ago. (The medium-term cycle is 97 years old & long term cycle is 316 years old.) We are merely witnessing the last 'takings' before the jets depart for safe houses spread around the globe in various extradition-proof locales.

My objective is to be part of the reformation. I want to help capture and bring these criminals back to justice. I want to help reform, design & implement a new, more just economic system after this one collapses. I have no concern about the coming social chaos, only a hope of surviving so as to participate in the re-building.

Hopefully, among the first things that will be changed, along with the obvious things like abolishing the Fed, IRS & implementing term limits, will be an emphasis on teaching about the dangers of the prior corrupt monetary economic system and its enslaving effects on previously free people.

Sat, 04/03/2010 - 08:12 | 285048 B9K9
B9K9's picture

Reposted from CD's blog entry:

CD: the entire purpose of the ZH blog is to expose the lies of the Ponzi and to speak truth to power.

CD, I have a slightly different take, as I recently expounded on the dying payroll report thread. ZH may have originally set out to expose the lies and 'speak truth to power', but given the speed and rapidity of recent affairs, that function has already been surpassed.

The events we are currently experiencing were set in motion decades ago. As Mako has stated not infrequently, the end game we are now part of was launched before we were even born. So actions are going to transpire as they must, regardless of what we may or may not do, whether we accept or deny they are occurring, or even protest against or advocate for necessary changes.

If this is the case, and I believe it to be so, then the real opportunity is to begin preparing for the post-war re-building period. By way of example, how many people know that post-WWII planning began only months after the USA entered the global fray? What, you thought there was any chance the Allies might lose? LOL

So in this regard, we have two knowns:

  • The system is going to crash - hard; and
  • The American republic is going to be re-established. (IOW, I believe the 'preppers are going to prevail.)

So the real opportunity is to begin preparing for the re-building phase. A shattered people are going to need to understand not only why the past events occurred, but what necessary controls & precautions will need to be put in place to prevent any future recurrences.

Sat, 04/03/2010 - 10:50 | 285095 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

B9K9,

I have spent (and continue to spend) considerable time following this train of thought to it's end point as well and I've also come to the inevitable conclusion that this freight train is beyond the point of no return and will eventually run off the tracks. In fact, I came to the same conclusion from many different directions after I decided either that my original thinking was flawed or I missed something along the way. So I tried alternative paths to prove or disprove the theory. Same result.

Being extremely aware of the presence of my own ego I then began to explore if I was intentially creating the same outcome in order to remain passive and safely buried in my bunker with my years supply of emergency food and my back issues of Playboy. But then I realized that man's decadence will assure me an ever lasting supply of porn regardless of what happens so I jettisoned the Playboy, freeing up room enough for another 10 years supply of food. But then I saw the flaw, which was suddenly so obvious I became furious with myself. Damn, I could have had a V8. :>)

Of course, your speaking of the ultimate lesson in The Matrix trilogy, that Neo wasn't the first and won't be the last. Unless! You speak of henchmen and operatives departing on planes to waiting lairs when the apocalypse is upon us. You speak of cycles, small ones inside larger ones inside even larger ones. Which means those operatives will eventually depart from the safety of their enclaves and begin the enslavement of the human race once again. And if the cycles are to be, there is nothing you can do to stop them.

This is why I have been focusing on and will continue to focus on personal development and why I speak publicly about it here on ZH. Because as long as the slave stock remains the same in each cycle, the powers that be will always be able to round us up for their productive purposes and to our detriment. Our only hope is that we develop mentally, spiritually and emotionally faster than they can corral. I think we can. Thus I try.

Sat, 04/03/2010 - 16:31 | 285314 merehuman
merehuman's picture

CD I am so grateful you speak for me . I cant write it as well as you do. One unit of awareness to another. Thanks from all of me!

PS its a dead tread now so you probably wont even see it.lol

Sat, 04/03/2010 - 17:37 | 285355 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

No worry merehuman, my big ego compels me to come back and see if anyone responded. :>) 

Thank you for your contributions as well.

Mon, 04/05/2010 - 11:18 | 286432 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Same here, CD.

Sat, 04/03/2010 - 10:46 | 285097 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

then the real opportunity is to begin preparing for the post-war re-building period.

This is now my almost complete focus for future activity.  I am engaging in this at the state government level with an ever-increasing level of effort.  It will begin as educational and awareness-building, plus the forging of relationships.  IMO we know what's going to happen, just not how soon.

A shattered people are going to need to understand not only why the past events occurred, but what necessary controls & precautions will need to be put in place to prevent any future recurrences.

The Austrian School and the Mises Institute provide the intellectual basis for this effort.

Mon, 04/05/2010 - 00:20 | 286173 bc0203
bc0203's picture

+1

Sun, 04/04/2010 - 22:57 | 286124 Wondering
Wondering's picture

I hope so B9K9. As a person in my mid fifties with two 22 year olds, I just want to make a difference for them in the 15-20 years I have left

Sat, 04/03/2010 - 01:26 | 284944 erik
erik's picture

this is from Standard & Poors website dated March 18, 2010.

The real worry is that the U.S. economy could do worse than portrayed in the pessimistic scenario. The parallels between the U.S. today and Japan at the beginning of the 1990s are too clear for comfort. In both cases, heavy capital losses from property loans constrained the banking system. In Japan, the losses were more on commercial property loans, but residential prices also dropped sharply a bit later in the cycle. Nonperforming loans reduced bank capital and thus limited the banks' ability to make loans. Although the Bank of Japan poured liquidity into the system, lowering the base interest rate to 0% by 1998, banks were still not making loans.

The result was a decade of economic stagnation, with growth averaging 0.8% from 1992 through 2002. Home prices remain 30% below their peak, and the Nikkei stock index is still trading at one-fourth its level of 20 years ago.

However, some things didn't happen. Inflation was not a problem. Despite the Bank of Japan's liquidity injections, the problem through the period was deflation, not inflation. The CPI dropped an average 0.1% a year from 1995 to 2005. Unemployment remained low (averaging less than 5%) because the weak investment slowed productivity growth, and the demographics created slower growth in the labor force. In addition, infrastructure programs resulted in higher employment, though with little impact on growth.

Could the U.S. replicate Japan's experience? The problems are similar, and the hope is that the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government have learned from Japan's mistakes. The Bank of Japan was still concerned about inflation well into the 1990s, when deflation had already become the problem. As a result, it was too slow to shift to a more expansive monetary policy. The Bank of Japan and the government tried to postpone dealing with the capital problems at the commercial banks, expecting them to grow out of their constraints. Instead, the constraints prevented growth. The government used fiscal stimulus (especially infrastructure spending) repeatedly, resulting in a rise in government debt to 150% of GDP and the loss of the 'AAA' rating on Japan's bonds. However, the stimulus never succeeded in creating growth beyond what the expenditures themselves caused.Could the U.S. replicate Japan's experience? The problems are similar, and the hope is that the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government have learned from Japan's mistakes. The Bank of Japan was still concerned about inflation well into the 1990s, when deflation had already become the problem. As a result, it was too slow to shift to a more expansive monetary policy. The Bank of Japan and the government tried to postpone dealing with the capital problems at the commercial banks, expecting them to grow out of their constraints. Instead, the constraints prevented growth. The government used fiscal stimulus (especially infrastructure spending) repeatedly, resulting in a rise in government debt to 150% of GDP and the loss of the 'AAA' rating on Japan's bonds. However, the stimulus never succeeded in creating growth beyond what the expenditures themselves caused.

Despite the similarities, there are also differences between Japan's situation and the current one in the U.S. One problem in Japan is that consumers reacted to weak growth and the loss of wealth by sharply increasing their saving rate, pushing the country into a classic Keynesian liquidity trap. Americans so far don't seem to be letting prudence get in the way of spending to the extent that Japanese consumers retrenched. The more open U.S. financial markets should permit a quicker resolution of the problem, though political populism could still prevent the needed fixes. The approach of the baby boomers to retirement will cut growth in the labor force, though not as sharply as in Japan in the 1990s.

The U.S. also has some dangers that Japan didn't face. U.S. reliance on foreign capital exposes the financial markets to greater risk than Japan, which was a major capital exporter. The low U.S. saving rate has both positive and negative implications for the outlook, especially given the retirement needs of the baby boomers. Out-of-control health care costs are imposing a fiscal risk on the U.S. that wasn't apparent in Japan in the early 1990s. Our hope is that policymakers in the U.S. have learned from Japan's failures. But Congress and the press seem determined to repeat many of the same mistakes.

We are not putting numbers to this scenario. It is a longer-term problem than our usual five-year economic projection, but the risk needs to be acknowledged.

http://www.standardandpoors.com/products-services/articles/en/us/?assetI...

Sat, 04/03/2010 - 10:20 | 285085 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

They all say that.  Less bad from counting games is good.  Ignorance is strength ... yada, yada, yada

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 08:41 | 284076 sysin3
sysin3's picture

buy, buy, buy

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 08:44 | 284078 filletandrelease
filletandrelease's picture

TPTB played that very well.  Under reporting census hiring so that the number was not to hot, but not too cold. 

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 09:17 | 284121 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Agreed. It seems the numbers are being managed not to make them look the best they can but for what the market will tolerate. Thus the reason they down played the census hiring, to make the private sector hiring "look" better. Not so much to justify raising interest rates (at least not much) but enough to continue the illusion that things are getting better and the end is in sight.

Of course, that $333 Billion of net Gvt borrowing in March 2010 has no consequences because things are getting better. I've been asking people if they think all this borrowing will be paid back. While many express doubt, they actually think the US did pay back the deficit in the 1990's, when there was the so called balanced budget. Most people think that meant we paid our bills and didn't owe any money.

The dumbing down of America is proceeding nicely.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:41 | 284143 Shocker
Shocker's picture

I agree totally, you really got to step back and say does this make any sense. Everything seems to keep getting worse but all theses jobs are getting created??? Doesn't make any sense.

 

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 09:32 | 284150 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

CB..always a pleasure to read you...yes, the sheeple coming home to graze!!! :-)

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 09:39 | 284160 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

i have gotten that too: bare surpluses during clinton's second term are interpreted by many to mean all the debt from reagan and bush 1 (and prior) had been paid off.  must have been all that public worry from greenspan about the demise of the long bond.  well he certainly solved that problem!  

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 13:56 | 284468 Reductio ad Absurdum
Reductio ad Absurdum's picture

The debt in the Reagan/Bush years was due to increased military spending which brought an end to the Cold War. Clinton then inherited the "Peace Dividend," which should have been used to dramatically reduce debt but no politician in a pluralistic democracy is capable of doing that.

Sat, 04/03/2010 - 03:44 | 285006 pawninthegame
pawninthegame's picture

that's another canard

 

the soviets were a decrepit dying system

 

the military spending by the US govt is mostly graft or waste or both

 

don't justify it, or take credit for the collapse of the second most powerful empire in the history of mankind, because it's simply not true

talk about self-delusion/national-delusion

watch this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4-rJl_vNb4

 

better luck next time, smartypants

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 09:57 | 284187 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Has been for 40 years. Some say 80.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 14:11 | 284485 sheeple
sheeple's picture

"Of course, that $333 Billion of net Gvt borrowing in March 2010 has no consequences because things are getting better."

 

You meant: "Of course that $333 billion of net Gvt borrowing in Mar 2010 is the consequence of things getting better."

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 15:21 | 284561 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

LOL

My bad!

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 08:56 | 284081 Renfield
Renfield's picture

OK so this was weird.

When that report got released the EURUSD pair rose about 15 points right away - of course - then DROPPED about 30 points in like 30 seconds - bounced like a rubber Easter bunny for the next few minutes and ended DOWN a bit.

It's on the way down now - a plummet not to put too fine a point on it.

The US report is dismal, and someone rushes to SELL the euro? And then makes sure it stays down. Freakin aggressively too.

Weird. I haven't been doing this very long, but to me this particular move just looked aber strange.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 09:04 | 284102 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

What's weird about it?

Almost every single move in the stock and currency markets is designed to fool you and take your money.  The illusion that it should have anything whatsover to do with fundamentals, or an appropriate reaction to the news, only helps them pull the wool over your eyes.

It's just like the last couple times the Chicago PMI numbers were released.  Grim news is sold off 3 minutes in advance (exactly when the PMI "sneak peek" subscribers get the early data), then blown through the roof in a short squeeze.

They never even looked at the Chicago PMI numbers.  The numbers didn't have anything to do with it.  They would have laid the same trap no matter what the numbers were.

Sell -> short -> buy -> cover -> sell at the peak -> take the suckers' money laugh all the way to the bank (which usually requires no movement whatsoever for those involved, since they already work in a bank).

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 09:10 | 284108 Renfield
Renfield's picture

Still sellin like a sonofabitch.

I'm used now to looking for a sudden movement an hour or so BEFORE the report is released, and putting in a small position then. You know, when all the *legitimate* trades go quiet, waiting for the Big News to break.

Man, with subtlety like this, no wonder they're the smartest guys in the room...

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 09:15 | 284117 Renfield
Renfield's picture

Just rocked past 1.35...and falling. Guess we can't blame the momentum guys for not fighting the tape.

Fuckin SUBTLE, but.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 12:02 | 284357 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Almost every single move in the stock and currency markets is designed to fool you and take your money.

Absolutely.  Stop trading.  Pop some popcorn.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 12:32 | 284381 Renfield
Renfield's picture

Hey SW

's OK, my little trading level wouldn't match the firepower of a fart in a windstorm. I do a few little trades each day, in quick and out quick, grab a few pips and out I am again. It's just the paper game to be able to exchange for real things, bullion and food, a few commodity shares...but definitely not committing to much in these markets because I don't know enough, and I trust them even less! It's just my wages, not my wealth.

But, you give good advice...one can never eat enough popcorn!

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 13:10 | 284420 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

I suck at timing, so I don't even try.  Popcorn, on the other hand, is good for you.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 14:52 | 284538 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Missing_Link,

You're right, the system is completely stacked against the investor, here's a excellent overview;

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TQhl58GAxI

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 08:51 | 284082 ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

That report flat-out sucked, what with all the calls I've been seeing for a big blowout number above 350K.

Fun fact:

 

"The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) increased by 414,000 over the month to 6.5 million. In March, 44.1 percent of unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more."

...

About 50K anti-jobs: "Employment in federal government was up over the month, reflecting the hiring of
48,000 temporary workers for the decennial census." 

 

Then you look at what the birth-death model added... Construction + 14K, Leisure +35 K. I guess "Leisure" includes new hookers.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 08:56 | 284093 filletandrelease
filletandrelease's picture

The household report didn't suck that much.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 10:45 | 284253 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Thats right ZackAttack, the entire employment picture is purely 2 month census takers and Craigs list wife-next-door hookers!

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 10:57 | 284265 Renfield
Renfield's picture

WILFs.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 14:38 | 284528 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

jeez, i need to move to a new neighborhood.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 11:33 | 284327 deadhead
deadhead's picture

there are tons of people falling off the extended unemployment benefits......as I noted yesterday, 46,000 people in NY fell off the maximum 99 week this week and it was a big story in NY, catching headlines in at least the upstate NY pictures.  these people have no money to spend and the NY Dept of Labor was encouraging them to get public assistance, food stamps.  as we know, the BLS is not counting these people and the hundreds of thousands who have fallen off extended unemployment benefits: they simply disappear.  naturally, with no income, you know the rest of the story.

 

I would also note the clear paradigm shift by the Obamas over the past 3 weeks with Geithner (and romer, orszag) admitting the unemployment rate is going to stay high for quite a while.....perhaps setting up for yet another jobs bill, extension of unemployment etc.  

 

 

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 13:32 | 284444 Rainman
Rainman's picture

.....and to add some Left Coast , the only remaining CA car manufacturing enterprise closed yesterday in Fremont ( NIMMI....the GM/TM collaboration ).

In business since 1984. Job loss 4,700.

Additionally, 23,000 teachers got their pink slip warnings by the Mar. 15 deadline to take effect in May, a legally required 60-day notice.

UGH.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 13:51 | 284462 deadhead
deadhead's picture

they are actually laying off teachers in NY....honestly, i never thought i would see the day due to the strength of the teacher's union....bottom line is that the money is simply not there.

 

also, the Gov in NY, due to their usual inability to meet the April 1 budget deadline, halted many payments including those for road construction....a bunch of projects simply shut right down.  

 

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 13:54 | 284463 Confused
Confused's picture

The history of this venture is fascinating. Such a shame. For all involved.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 14:42 | 284531 assembler
assembler's picture

Actually, Tesla Motors is still going strong in CA. Their $135K Roadster is a real beauty.

Somebody has to make the car of desire for banksters!

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 16:09 | 284619 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Going strong with half a billion FRNs from the government.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/bottomline/detail?entry_id=42210

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 08:51 | 284085 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

The NY Times is blaming SNOWSTORMS.  DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt!

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 09:17 | 284122 Confused
Confused's picture

That excuse is amusing. They were also saying that the snowstorms had NO affect on personal spending.

 

So it stops people from looking for jobs and houses....but not ipods? haha

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 09:38 | 284156 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

While these discrepancies are obvious and even alarming to you and I, to the average Joe, who's walking around in a fog and not quite sure what's happening but not willing to look too closely, it feeds into their plausible deniability impulse.

Lies are not intended to change your or my mind. We know they're lying even when we can't point to "proof" of the lie. But to those who have been numb for decades, the 2008 meltdown was a shock to the system. They need constant reassurance that it's OK to go back to sleep and pull out that credit card, take that vacation, buy that new home.

It really is a confidence game, the root of the term "con game", and the head puppeteer is the Fed. Anyone who believes that the power base lay within CONgress or the President really does need to take the red pill.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 09:41 | 284163 Renfield
Renfield's picture

I know what you're thinking.

Why oh why didn't I take the BLUE pill???

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 10:02 | 284193 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"I know what you're thinking. Why oh why didn't I take the BLUE pill???"

THE signature line of the Matrix Trilogy.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!