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Margin Call in Shanghai
In the spirit of keeping it simple I just thought I'd explain how to graphically trade China for the next 3 years in one chart:
Its not hard. Really, HK is even easier given it lags Shanghai by a few days for reasons I cannot fully explain.
Shanghai copper and zinc and just about everything else is all limit down, London isn't looking pretty. If you're looking for the next trade just ask yourself - has your broker been learning mandarin recently? Do you often find him answering "wei?" when he picks up the phone? If so find out what he's been selling and give pause to getting on the other side. This is always a good ride, and as soon as the rumors of increased loans or poorer underwriting come through get out. Its going to be like this until either the country makes some good, tough decisions or until they blow it up.
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Ching chow, yang, fung youu , hing howwee moo.
Sing song, tang, mywang, yorangho
Party like 1990 in Tokyo!
Back then, we had more than 50% of rebound, and everybody thought the worst was over.
You guys know the aftermath. It was just the begninning of prolonged stagnation.
Welcome to the club, Chinese people...
Is your broker screaming "mai mai mai!"
Learn the tones.
Does anyone know what is the ticker/symbol for the China credit index?
Thanks.
YMCI ------> The Yiwu Market Credit Index
Thanks - this is for Bloomberg right? Are there any others that you know of?
i don't know is it for Bloom. or not it probably is. I know only of this one, cause it was the first one, but i have never used it. Do more research about it to be sure how to play it.
What is the China credit index? I have been watching CDX.EM diversified but that's a mixed pool.
market took a crap
sleazy linking practices; borderline fraud ..http://www..
hat tip: gay porn and deceitful, slimy operators
I don't get why world markets lagged nearly by a week over shanghai. A couple of years ago it came realtime...
That BNP crash warning 3 weeks ago came in handy.
The chinese will save harder than ever before when their government introduce reform of social security and healthcare reform in a few years time. Why do I say that? Because each time a major "reform" is introduced, the regional and local officials are left holding the can to foot the bill - this means more corruption or cut-back in some other spending eg education. Mind you, China had basic universal healthcare until Zhu Rongji's (remember him - the prime minister who dared a western investor to short the RMB in his annual conference) reforms (particularly that of the state-owned enterprises and taxation). In the end, the local government had to sell land to cover education costs, or cut corners in building schools and hospitals. The result- the collapse of schools in Szechian earthquake, and peasants saving more to pay for exorbitant healthcare. Want more result - thousands of blood sellers in Henan province became infected with HIV because hospitals re-used syringes previously used on migrant HIV-positive drivers. Want more result - factory girls turned to prostitution by the millions in southern China. In China, the saying is - "Its ok to die, not ok to fall ill". Five thousand years of despotism will not change in our life times.
If the return for a westerner on their savings account decreases by 50%, a search begins for higher yield.
If a Chinese saver sees their return decrease by 50% they save twice as much.
Therein lies the difference ... don't believe the pablum narrative that universal health coverage in 2011 will stimulate consumption ... it will be years after implementation (at some date certainly after 2011) ... given China's history it is understandable how the citizenry takes a 'show-me' approach ...
Look into the eyes of the dragon ...
Once again the illiquidity-insolvency monster will have to step out onto the freak show stage, spook the crowd and we will have another massive leg down in a worldwide economic implosion.
Chinese equity bubble reaching threshold of resistance/turning point... should lead equity and commodity wave down
Didn't BNB Paribas call this for two weeks ago?
thats what I read
sleazy linking practices; borderline fraud ..http://www..
hat tip: gay porn and deceitful, slimy operators
dude; china is popping for days know; good thing I'm short there. oh, and look at Hang-Seng ( -3.62% ) and if the Dow fells +150 today Asia will be -<800-900> tonight
i'm long edz from two fridays ago... bubble has just been pricked, popping will accelerate in coming weeks/months... should be nice profit potential for us.
yep; the policy that the Chinese are conducting cant last forever; and if you include the anthropological factor into this ( which is that the Chinese are pretty conservative when it comes to money and prefer savings over consumption )we could see a MAJOR ( meaning 15-25 % ) pullback in the next month or so. Oh and you write excellent articles man; kudos. My down limit for HS is somewhere around 15600 and 16000 by the end of September.
http://www.hsi.com.hk/HSI-Net/
Check out commerce and industry and finance component sub-indexes; that where you should be short
Excellent short ideas... I'm short the E-House Holdings ADR (EJ), another possible short idea you may be interested in... extremely high beta and obviously linked to Chinese housing sector... would not be surprised to see this in single digits early next year...
if i would to have balls large enough i would short everything that has some connection to Real Estate and Real Estate loans, unfortunately i don't. I'm waiting for next year when defaulting starts to occur in Opt-Arm and Alt-A mortgages. This article might be interesting for you if you plan on shorting MBS, CMBS. Excellent analysis
http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/coming-foreclosure-wave
Looks like it will be like stealing a candy from a child for the shorts in '10 and '11