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Market Breaks As Stocks Explode To Celebrate Sub 2.9% 10 Year

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The capital markets, which are celebrating accelerating deflation and inflation at the same time, are now officially insane, as the Dow has diverged from its credit implied fair value by about 170 points! This will all end in lots and lots of tears. We hope the computers enjoy trading with each other as much as all carbon based lifeforms relinquish the en masse abandonment of the stock market.

 

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Fri, 07/30/2010 - 15:53 | 496894 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Holy Crap!  The 1 minute bars look like the market had a seziure for the last 20 min.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:26 | 497134 Mojo
Mojo's picture

Don't fight the tape folks.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 18:11 | 497192 SpiOpsChiwowwow
SpiOpsChiwowwow's picture

Have you ever seen an animal die from suffocation? They thrash around violently with super strength trying to exhale what is in, and inhale what is out.

This free market is in the throws of death as it is being strangled by deceit.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 18:54 | 497231 Mojo
Mojo's picture

And when the thing dies, short the sucker.

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 02:34 | 497547 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Ah, but you have to short "before" it dies.

And that last gasp is the one hardest to foretell.

Tough to plan for. Easy in hindsight.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 12:02 | 497799 Mojo
Mojo's picture

Tough? Tell me about it. That's why I am praying to the market gods to bless me with wisdom to see my ways. :-)

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 14:21 | 497937 grunion
grunion's picture

and get out just ahead of the final death rattle...

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 04:05 | 497557 Popo
Popo's picture

No.  I haven't seen an animal die of suffocation.

wtf?

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 17:56 | 498160 Abiggs
Abiggs's picture

Seriously wtf is wrong w this asshole - watching animals die of suffocation...

It's sad that this site has become a place where these sickos feel comfortable posting their deranged thoughts...

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:37 | 497148 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

That was just all the bears closing out before the weekend.

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 09:38 | 497683 hardmedicine
hardmedicine's picture

Tyler: can you please go through and block these clowns who are jumping on the junk button?  They are getting on my  nerves and the springs are wearing thin.

 

Thank you

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 15:55 | 496896 Chemba
Chemba's picture

credit algorithms and equity algorithms not talking to each other.  Maybe one is Apple and the other is Windows?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:07 | 496930 molecool
molecool's picture

Worse - equities are running on Windows 95 inside VMWare hacked to run on a Lisa.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:19 | 496982 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Pfft. it's all 800XL, baby. There's only one command it needs to run automatically: BUY

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:33 | 497141 HedgingInfinite...
HedgingInfiniteRiskIsNotPossible's picture

Nu-uh! Not unless they got 80386s.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 15:55 | 496897 Nolsgrad
Nolsgrad's picture

I guess TD didn't take profits on the first one. 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 15:58 | 496904 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

Selling is forbidden.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 15:59 | 496906 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

This will all end in lots and lots of tears.

It sure will... going home tonight for a dinner of scotch to cry in. lol   Good God....  well, nobody ever said it was easy.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:00 | 496908 Jack
Jack's picture

"as the Dow has diverged from its credit implied fair value by about 170 points!"

 

I think the implied fair value relies on the assumption of constrained liquidity.  If the monetary authority is propping up asset classes, no reason why this wouldn't happen.  For as long as they are able to, at least.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:28 | 497011 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

If there was constrained liquidity, the fair value would be worth about -5000 points.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:42 | 497043 Smu the Wonderhorse
Smu the Wonderhorse's picture

PRECISELY, Jack.  Ongoing under-the-radar QE buys debt instruments, thus propping up the bond market, while beneficiaries of the sales put their new liquidity into equities.  It makes perfect sense.  The only drawback: long-term currency crisis, among other things, but that's for other people to worry about.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:00 | 496911 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

For Leo> http://www.investopedia.com/ < Defines words like:  Plunge...Break...Explode...Seizure.....

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:02 | 496920 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Anyone interested in taking a step, albeit very small, to get something off the drawing board?

I've been thinking about a sticker, bumper size, that identifies American Patriots. I think that includes a large majority of the ZH community. But wouldn't directly identify said patriot as a member of ZH.

Personally, I'd like to be driving down the road and give a thumbs up to the person next to me.  It's a start.

keep it simple, but identify two main themes - "patriot" (someone who cares and understands what is happening in this country) and one other word.  A word that tells the oligarchy that we are on to them (I could use some help here).  I'm thinking of some reverse psyops like, "dumb" perhaps.  Dumb Patriot.  Dumb may not be the word, but "they" do consider us as some form of dumb.

I use the the avatar "Village Idiot" because it acknowledges right up front that I may be, and sometimes am, the VI.  But you can't use it against me because I am the VI, after all.  We both know.  That is the key - one word that represents the power of the people, and another word that signifies a mutual understanding that, to the contrary, we aren't dumb.

I need a little help developing this, though, but hopefully you get the idea.  I would be privileged to contribute any way I can, financially or otherwise. 

I hope this idea gets some traction - I really would like to be running down the road and give a big thumbs up to my fellow Dumb? Patriot.

 

I'll probably post this around the site and see what happens.  Cheers.

 

 EDIT:  "Oligarchy" may not be the defining word or group that is taking us down, for you.  Feel free to replace with something else.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:11 | 496940 Young
Young's picture

Patriotism is the virtue of the vicious. Stick with another theme, lot's of us ZH:ers are non americans. The sticker could maybe say: "Honk if you hate Keynes"?

Patriotism is something used by the politicians in order to deceipt the masses.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:16 | 496965 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

"Patriotism is the virtue of the vicious. Stick with another theme, lot's of us ZH:ers are non americans. The sticker could maybe say: "Honk if you hate Keynes"?

Patriotism is something used by the politicians in order to deceipt the masses."

 

All valid points, that's why I'm the VI.  Just trying to hand off the baton.  cheers.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:24 | 496999 Young
Young's picture

No worries, I'm sure most non-american ZH:ers still hope the best for america. We're all plagued by these keynesianist politicians ruling our countries. Maybe we should see ourselves as a global underground organization (army) of fed up individuals - speakers of truth.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:34 | 497028 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

gotta put the revolu... on hold, my kid just got out of school.  How about keeping it rolling until I get back.  (sarcasm off)

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:25 | 497133 Pope Clement
Pope Clement's picture

VI- How bout 'ich bin ein Icelander'

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:37 | 497150 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

funny - although that would imply that that there are a lot of german speaking people who even understand what happened in iceland.  give me a "proverbial" smiley face giving the bird - something like that.  authors credit - smiley face idea lifted from the smiley face giving the bird avatar person.

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 01:47 | 497535 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

How about one of these?

"WELCOME TO ZIMBABWE!"

"I BUY EVERYTHING AT THE $999 STORE"

"I SPENT MY LIFE SAVINGS ON THIS STINKING BUMPER STICKER"

"U6 BITCHES!"

"OBAMA? ROFLMAO!"

"BIDEN FOR PRESIDENT!"

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 10:43 | 497734 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

The biden one, lol.  thanks for responding.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:29 | 497125 Sausagemaker
Sausagemaker's picture

How about this?

http://i737.photobucket.com/albums/xx14/dmj625/Calvin.jpg

Can somebody clue me in on displaying images? I tried html and bb code to no avail.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:31 | 497138 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

invalid address??

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 18:28 | 497208 SpiOpsChiwowwow
SpiOpsChiwowwow's picture

Only the elite can display images.

For now the small must leave a correct link and solicit clicks.

I think bubba should make some bumper stickers like this:
http://i29.tinypic.com/2rx9pwp.jpg

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 22:44 | 497433 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

i like it!  probably not maistream enough but thanks for the effort.  I'll be coming back around.

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 06:15 | 497578 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

I nominate the "Robot Fighting League"

with a pic of Bender Bending Rodriguez

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 10:45 | 497736 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

thanks for responding - we may get liftoff on this thing

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 18:02 | 498165 Abiggs
Abiggs's picture

Stick to suffocating animals...

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 18:58 | 497234 zhandax
zhandax's picture

You are on to something, but there is no ZH hook....

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v611/borg1/ZCalvin.jpg

 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 19:10 | 497246 SpiOpsChiwowwow
SpiOpsChiwowwow's picture

The team updated this for you.

http://i30.tinypic.com/6sym43.jpg

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 22:46 | 497437 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

not quite what I am looking for but at least you aren't pissing on a ford.  thanks for the effort. :-)

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:29 | 497015 Sam Clemens
Sam Clemens's picture

I cringe everytime somebody hates on Keynes.  The US gov has never correctly applied Keynesian theory.  No more so than they have correctly applied Smith or Mises or Marx.  In fact, it may be appropriately argued that all of them are correct or none of them correct.

 

Where they all failed in their thinking is they assumed humans could appropriately apply their theories.  Truth is, we don't know if any of their systems can work because we've never experimented with them.  The only other argument is to say that all of the theories are so flawed due to the fact that we are unable to apply them.

 

 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:45 | 497055 Close 2 the Edge
Close 2 the Edge's picture

That's like saying reality is wrong and the theories are right...

Nothing ever gets "applied" the way the theories suggest they should, we call that reality and it's caught in such sayings as "where the rubber hits the road", "good intentions lead the way to hell" “unintended consequences” and what not.

Perhaps if the theorists started with a realistic framework of human action they might give us something that actually worked more than failed...  As it stands they all start with a wish for how people would behave instead of an acceptance of how they actually do behave.

Keynesian economics was recognized as a farce by any who understand anything about human nature and government the moment it went into thinking any government would ever willingly spend less than it thought it could get away with.

Keep believing in the fantasies of theorists.  I’ll stick to the realities of the world as lived.

 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:50 | 497173 Pez
Pez's picture

Economics defined: The science of explaining tomorrow why the predictions you made yesterday didn't come true today.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:46 | 497058 Young
Young's picture

You have a point, even John M K himself said he never thought his theories would be used in this way.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:35 | 497145 old_turk
old_turk's picture

"John M K himself said he never thought his theories would be [ab]used in this way."

True and he also noted that in the long run, we're all dead as well as that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. The irrational vs. solvency issue is one I wrestle with every day.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 23:08 | 497459 Sausagemaker
Sausagemaker's picture

If nobody can apply his theory correctly, then he probably didn't articulate it very well. 

Either way, piss on him.  

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:13 | 496941 breezer1
Fri, 07/30/2010 - 22:51 | 497441 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Thank you for responding. (sarcasm off)

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 14:30 | 497946 grunion
grunion's picture

You will not succeed and you know why!

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:11 | 496951 LiquidBrick
LiquidBrick's picture

Why don't you just license the term "ZeroHedger" and use that as your bumber sticker. Pay ZH a royalty for each bumper sticker you sell since they that term seems to encompass your objective.

No sense in dumbing down to a concept something that the sheeple can "adore" just because the great chasm between "know" and "not know" are extreme dichotemies you wish to close terminals with.

Clearly you care but if you want truth - sad truth - sectors of innefficient economies must die for there to be any end to the constant W,R,R cycle.

The solution is not in educating illiterate people, its in not giving birth to them.

 

 

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 01:45 | 496984 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Anything ZH isn't going to work and isn't going to be appreciated by ZH(for certain reasons) is my guess.

And let's stop calling them "sheeple."  How about we need the people.  Another poster did point out that it's global not just a US problem, didn't think of that.  Ok, so once again, I am handing off the baton, but ready to help.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:26 | 497007 BeerGoggles
BeerGoggles's picture

Did you say bummer sticker?

I ain't wearing no sticker allowing VI to come bum me.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 18:59 | 497235 Carl Marks
Carl Marks's picture

How about "Some oligarch ravaged my bum hole and all I got was Obamacare?"

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 20:13 | 497302 Votewithabullet
Votewithabullet's picture

CUT. COPY. PRINT IT.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 22:50 | 497440 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

we might lose some of that masses at "oligarch."  thanks for responding.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:17 | 496969 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

So your assumption is that the Lowest Common Denominators (e.g. Cramerica) have 20/20 vision and your thesis will not cause an exponential rise in Road Rage?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:28 | 497012 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

If you are referring to my above post, LSG, any build in rage (peacefull of course) is a step in the right direction.  Look, I am just envisioning a collective thumbs up here.  It's a start. I need to know who my compadres are in this world. If it starts with a bumper sticker, fine.  I'm getting carpel tunnel syndrome as it is.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:54 | 497082 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Sorry...late afternoon sarcasm...I should have used a /Sarcasm.....

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:38 | 497153 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

no worries - have a good one.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:19 | 496981 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

How about freedom lovers instead of 'patriots'. Patroits imply within the border of some country...ZHers are from all over the world. I think we are all true free market lovers.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:43 | 496992 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Sure.  Someone did mention a more appropriate place to discuss and build from.  Any ideas?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:38 | 497038 barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

i have to confess something. i don't feel very patriotic right now. 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:00 | 497099 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

I have my days too.  gotta break that cycle - take it away from them - give back to you - even if i just starts out as a little spark of acknowledgement/pride.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:35 | 497144 Mrasshat
Mrasshat's picture

 

I think a lot of us feel that way right now.  

 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:44 | 497165 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

No doubt - thanks for responding.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:48 | 497167 Econolingus
Econolingus's picture

How 'bout one of those "vacation destination" style stickers--the white oval with the black border and two letters ("MV" for Martha's Vineyard; "JH" for Jackson Hole)?

 

After all, in many ways, "ZH" is a destination

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 22:52 | 497443 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

"After all, in many ways, "ZH" is a destination"

 

might be something there - thanks for responding.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:51 | 497174 FrankRizzo
FrankRizzo's picture

I like how the site AR15.com used this for their logo:

http://store.ar15.com/store/images/products/BFLMagnets.jpg

I went to Arby’s the other day and a Chevy Avalanche had the white one on it. Now AR15.com is a popular things that go boom site, but I did find it cool to know, that a like minded individual was in the mist. I tried to pick out who it belonged too. I’m sure in the end, anyone who noticed me thought I was freak staring at everyone.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 22:54 | 497446 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

I like how the site AR15.com used this for their logo:

 

Visit the site frequently - thanks for responding.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 18:14 | 497197 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

@village not an idiot.  Then we can help this guy sell his O-sticker removal tool, take like 16.5% as "finder's fee" and have a complete kit.  Give the obots suffering from buyers remorse catharsis and closure with the new sticker.

Warning, remove all internal and external liquids before viewing.  You've been warned!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=201pgTaEseQ

- Ned

 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 22:56 | 497448 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

"@village not an idiot."

thanks ned. i see a place for you in this operation - makin' bacon $$

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 21:42 | 497367 merehuman
merehuman's picture

We , a few , have suggested wearing blue, Or a bandana, something , anything to let each other know we are not alone! Thats why we arent fighting the beast , because each of us thinks we live alone and have no way of showing our unity or level of awareness of our dilemma.

I spoke to a lady in the food market today. She , a stranger had no clue of the food shortgages to come, the imminent fall of the dollar or the fact that we are in a seachange environmentally, Re the Gulf and toxins .

She has no internet and listening to the TV i realize how in the dark much of the public still is. great harm can come of this and i hold we are captives of a few bad men and their ignorant selfish minions. Only on close examination and perusing history does one begin to fathom the debths and complexity of this debacle.

Will there be men of courage who face the beast with the willingness to sacrifice  their lives? I have serious doubts, tho many claim the strenght of their guns, in the face of reality at your door in uniformed multiples of officialdom i think not. With the MAN at your door you will willingly give up your weapon because you realize you are the only fool who stood up and are outnumbered. Not even a fight. The government may shame into bringing it (your gun) to them! they have done that and folks took little green squares of paper in exchange. Isnt that the way of the american indian?

Thats one smart white guy .whoeeh lol

Village Idiot , meet Gods fool

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 23:01 | 497453 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Remember what the radical left had to say about "the man." "If you want to beat the man you have to become the man." take care.

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 08:27 | 497632 Nikki
Nikki's picture

I'll play...

End the Oligarchy

Prosecute the Oligarchs

Hand Licking Cow

Wall Street is RICO

Wall Street + DC = RICO

thanx for letting me play.....

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 10:51 | 497740 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

thanks, nikki. we need terminal velocity on this.  i'll be back around.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:02 | 496921 Wyndtunnel
Wyndtunnel's picture

Un-be-fucking-lievable.... You need to be a drunken-master trader in this market...

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:06 | 496929 n2dark
n2dark's picture

:))

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:15 | 496961 Chemba
Chemba's picture

actually, you need to be able to separate fundamentals from technicals.  the algos are driven largely by technical considerations.  they don't care that much about funadamentals, and the only insight the algos have into "fundamentals" are the 12-mo fwd earnings estimates of the sell-side community.  So, given that, why would you expect the computers to share your view?  To the computers, the outlook is rosy; look at 12-mo fwd bottom up and top down S&P 500 eps.

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 18:05 | 498167 Abiggs
Abiggs's picture

Actually, try linear algebra and stochastic calculus...

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 21:47 | 497373 merehuman
merehuman's picture

I dont trade or do business with criminals. Every time i use the dollar i feel like i am stabbing myself in the back. Now it just itches a little as I hardly  use it, dont really want it and cant wait to be shed of it if i do have it. Kinda like the clap.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:06 | 496927 Catullus
Catullus's picture

All your alpha are belong to us

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:12 | 496952 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Sweet.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:25 | 497004 old_turk
old_turk's picture

We're all gamma chasers now.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:38 | 497035 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

And vega victims!  (well... some of us)

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:08 | 496931 BeerGoggles
BeerGoggles's picture

Oh my...another convergence trade that diverged even further. LOL - exactly why you should not overleverage.

 

Villiage Idiot - I think you misunderstand how to be "underground".

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:11 | 496945 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

I hear you.  Where is the door?  btw, I'm just talking about a bumper sticker - free to anyone, anywhere. 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:12 | 496953 BeerGoggles
BeerGoggles's picture

How about a sticker with Village Idiot? :)

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:23 | 496997 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

ha, that wouldn't get very far, but it's a start. ;-)

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:27 | 497008 old_turk
old_turk's picture

Farther than you'd think.

I need two. One on front as a warning ... one on back as an 'excuse me' but I'm a VI.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:31 | 497021 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

OK, 1 vote for VI.  I gotta go pick up the kid, so I need to put the revolu... on hold. I hope that my ZH brothers and sisters can keep things rolling, though. 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:24 | 497130 bobm2626
bobm2626's picture

1st rule of ZH, "You do not talk about ZH"!

Gold Bitchez...

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:47 | 497166 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

away from this site we don't. thanks for the heads-up though.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 18:17 | 497198 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

I don't know what you're talking about. - Ned

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 23:02 | 497455 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

who?  look, a wolf.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:08 | 496933 BORT
BORT's picture

Is it all just a game of chicken, to see who will sell all first in an effort to win the prize as the clairvoyant of the 2010 crash?  The prize is waiting, but no one seems to wish to stand up.  I bet there isn't any fund manager who wants to be holding when the downtrend starts.  We seem to keep cycling to greater and greater risk 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:09 | 496935 realtick
realtick's picture

Anyone here follow Elliott Wave counts?

Looks like 5 wave impulse move down from 7-27,

3 wave (rising wedge) corrective move up today 7-30,

should be starting another 5 wave impulse on Monday,

right into Nonfarm Friday.

 

 

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 16:01 | 498073 Orly
Orly's picture

Man, you people make me dizzy...

/:

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:10 | 496937 walküre
walküre's picture

lower yields on bonds are a catalyst for a yield chasing stock market.

correct me if I'm wrong.

as soon as interest rates go higher, if ever, the market should correct.

looking at buying German telecoms and power corps. with 8 to 10% dividend yield.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:15 | 496962 Young
Young's picture

A bit confused by the commodities, last two days they've been screaming inflation (i think). We'll know for sure during the next week whether they are bouncing or running.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:18 | 496979 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Same way they screamed that in 2008?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:25 | 497006 Young
Young's picture

Certainly hope so fd, then at least we would have a commodity play that would be huge. Maybe Jimbo Rogers is finally gonna get it right?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:57 | 497094 walküre
walküre's picture

funny that.. I saw Jimbo live in a crowded hotel meeting room early this year talking like shit was hitting the fan and the USD going kapputt in the Spring.

now, the freefall in the USD was stopped by rumors about sovereign default in Europe.

Europe's financials are better than the US but on the fringes, the players can't pay their liabilities.

the Euro shock is digested... USD freefall resumes.

Jimbo was right essentially but neither he nor anyone knew that the Fed would use the rating agencies to pull the plug on the Euro and create a "flight to safety" in the USD.

the Fed and rating agencies made one major mistake in their calculations.

now the truth about the relative strenght of the European economy and the Euro is out and if you compare the Euro and USD apples to apples, oranges to oranges, the Euro looks better.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:24 | 497001 walküre
walküre's picture

There were some intra day opportunities to play the inverse etfs but overall, the last week has been sensationally strong for commodities. It's overplayed to the upside, so I play the downside when I see the opportunity. Few and far in between.

Pure spec. play imo. Nothing in the current fundamentals or outlook to justify that upside but here we are. Could be a repeat of summer '08 when commods screamed higher and higher.

The market is trying to capitalize on QE rumors, is all. Nobody wants to be on the wrong side of the next leg up or down.

August is going to be a long month.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:11 | 496944 StevieMac
StevieMac's picture

I've sold more lows and bought more highs in the last 3 months than I have in the previous 10 years...

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:11 | 496949 realtick
realtick's picture

Join the club.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:31 | 497020 n2dark
n2dark's picture

'if every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.'

this is a George Costanza world, so act accordingly

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 20:37 | 497317 tj3
tj3's picture

+1

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 22:44 | 497434 Kali
Kali's picture

StevieM, it IS amazing.  What I find even more amazing is people are starting to accept this as "normal".  I just hope I'm not starting to age that fast too.  Honestly, why do we need things to move so fast?  It is way beyond human scale, like so many other things in our lives.  I am no Luddite, but a slower and more thoughtful pace about our actions would probably do us more good than harm.  You will still make your "trade" and "money", it just might take a couple more years to accumulate that first billion (remember, not too long ago, when billion was considered to be a HUGE number).

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:13 | 496947 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Stop whining already, and just power on:

 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:14 | 496957 Nolsgrad
Nolsgrad's picture

correlations work, until they don't. Isn't that right Leo?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:19 | 496985 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

...absolutely, but this is a stock picker's market. There are many hidden gems out there trading at ridiculously low levels.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:22 | 496993 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Hey Leo, did you get shanked by FSLR today?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:31 | 497018 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

I don't trade FSLR, but I should. It's a very nice stock for swing trades:

 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 18:41 | 497219 SpiOpsChiwowwow
SpiOpsChiwowwow's picture

You better be small and nimble because this stock market is going to come crashing down from heaven to earth and all you smart inweasters are going to be jumping from your shiny towers ultimately liquefying as your lifeless bodies come into contact with reality at terminal velocity.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 22:31 | 497423 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

The Tengu walk with you Spi...... tread carefully.

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 14:10 | 497925 UncleBen
UncleBen's picture

Swing trading FSLR would be the same as swinging an anvil at your groin

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:32 | 497023 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Hidden gems.. like those pieces of hard poop you pick up and hoping that it's a diamond..

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:39 | 497039 demsco
demsco's picture

Yeah, but when did you buy it? I can show you my confirmations showing prints as low as 3.15 on PWER. I can show you prints as low as 2.00 on SATC. You are right, it is a stock pickers market, I just get in before most stock pickers get there. Thanks for buying my shares at a ridiculously high profit... Let me know when you want more. 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:54 | 497085 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

The hardest two things in trading: cut your losses fast but let your profits run. PWER looked like it was toast, and was trading at penny stock levels at one point. You didn't need to catch it at the ultimate low to make money. Even if you bought it above $5 or $6, you still made good money. And now that they raised guidance, this sucker can run. Watch to see if they buy the pullbacks.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:22 | 496994 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

For the big power down?  What not use http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=83697021-8c51-433d-8ad0-90223e8ce5aa for your stock charts?  It is free and looks better than Yahoo. 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:54 | 497083 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Awesome, Leo! Now, how about the ones that didn't work?

Nobody ever puts their losers up, only their winners. 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:09 | 497112 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

I've lost plenty of money throughout the years, but also made a few nice calls in the past, like in Jan. 2009. That was easy money (all beta) and still, I managed to totally miss the ramp-up in banks. And there were other gems back then that I should have held on to:

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 18:52 | 497228 ex VRWC
ex VRWC's picture

Everyone is trying to profit by participating in the casino that is destroying the economy.  Like this is something to be proud of?  Loose money weakens the bond between creditor and debtor, causing both repayment and credit availability to go down, because owing money means nothing.  Look around - it is clearly true.  It also breaks the bond between taxpayer and government, because real taxpayers go bankrupt and speculators hide behind the need to protect their capital gains (ie, casino winnings).  Politicians react by favoring the wealthy, because only the wealthy can afford to fund their campaigns.  Trust in government evaporates.  Net result -  govt revenues go down and govt debt goes up. As government becomes more and more irrelevant to the real economy and more and more favorable to the casino economy, more and more people to join the party to try and make money in the casino, because that is the only 'opportunity' there is.  The casino becomes an enormous black hole that draws the 'real' economy of production and resources into it.  

Right now, the government is frantically feeding more and more liquidity into the casino to prevent its implosion, because they know the casino's implosion is the end of themselves and the system. But, more loose money of course feeds the cycle.  We sit on the edge of a dangerous precipice, and your participation in the speculation moves us closer, just a little bit at a time.

So, enjoy your participation.  I hope you make out.  I will make my little stand against it by refusing to participate.  Its not much, but its something I can do.  I truly wish people on here would get serious about what we face, and quit trying to predict this or that so they can profit from it.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 21:57 | 497387 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Whoever you are ex VRWC , thank you from all of me. You dont drink with the enemy, or trade to make profit off the masses and others misery.

I stand with my principles and convictions, with honesty and keeping my personal respect and honor. I am more than the body that holds me and if i waiver form my line i become merely human. No thanks.

Disclaimer

Works for love

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 22:49 | 497439 Kali
Kali's picture

Ditto.  All we can do is try to live our lives as to not get sucked into the black hole that will consume everything. 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:16 | 496948 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Very pretty chart. Merry Christmas. It needs a little green though and maybe a snowman.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:11 | 496950 SuperBull
SuperBull's picture
Dear fellow citizen, For last few years, we've been struck by economic hardship and bearish sensationalisms. It's time we lift our buttocks from the chairs we sit on, and relax. Despite what doomers have claimed, the world is not falling apart.  The economy has shrunk, but under the leadership of our government, we were able to stave off the total collapse of the economy.  Look, our system is not perfect, but it is the best system known to mankind since man has developed writing. It saddens us greatly that our faith in our great nation has faltered so much. What has happened to our pioneering spirit? What has happened to our inventive creativity?

Why must we cannibalize our own country, for whose benefit?

Come on my fellow citizens, we are better than this.

 

Perhaps, we were so consumed by our collective insecurity that we must find a scapegoat; and by doing so pointing our energy to all the wrong places and to all the wrong people.  Perhaps, we all need a small break.  Away from the doomer madness.  Away from the end-of-the-world mentality.  Away from bearish pornographical writings all over the internet.

 

 

I ask you to make a pledge this weekend. 

1) Turn off the TV

2) Turn off the Internet

3) Spend quality time with your family.  Maybe going to the beach, catch some fish, eat some nice fruits, enjoy the scenary and relax in the sun, get massage from your wife/husband, kids running around in the beach...etc.

 

Maybe you can bake some cupcakes for your wife/husband and children; and talk about how great your family is.  Phone your parents to say how great things are in your life.  Go join local charity groups, rather than furious masturbating at bearish porn writings.

 

I ask you to step outside; there is a new world waiting for you to explore. 

No TV.  No Internet.  No worry.

 

You all work very hard for your family, for your company and for your country.  You deserve better.  Make a pledge with me today; and start a new life for yourself.

 

Ahh.. I'm smelling a freshly baked cup cake... You should make one now.

 

Have a wonderful weekend.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:16 | 496960 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

I don't watch TV.  I am going to have sex with my wife, and drink good whiskey with average vermouth, bitters, and a cherry.  I will go swimming with my kids.  Close enough.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:47 | 497060 SuperBull
SuperBull's picture

-deleted-

 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:46 | 497061 SuperBull
SuperBull's picture

Have a wonderful weekend, hedgeless_horseman!

 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 19:01 | 497237 SpiOpsChiwowwow
SpiOpsChiwowwow's picture

You guys are high on bullopium. You better go to Sams Club and stock up on essentials, water, non-perishables, more water. Get to the gun store this weekend and purchase a few more cases of ammunition. Keep the cellar fully stocked and spend a few hours working on your robotic paramilitary yard sentry (code name: minuteman). Don't forget the shack is having a sale on batteries this weekend and that little asian store on central ave is advertising ramen noodles: 10 packs for $2.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:19 | 496980 Wyndtunnel
Wyndtunnel's picture

You clearly are employed.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:49 | 497071 SuperBull
SuperBull's picture

Wynd, you should stay away from the internet and get some sun shine.

You may even find a dream girl by going outside!

 

Have a great weekend.

 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 16:25 | 497003 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

There are 40.4 million americans (the number on food stamps and 6.7 million more than a year ago) that probably see things a bit differently than you. You can close your eyes to the ponzi scheme and the corruption and enjoy the beach (at present, unless in the gulf), but those that think all is well and ignore the hurrcane warnings get Katrina'd. Hey it's cool, you can be that person on the TV screaming "where is the govt!!!". Enternal optimists are needed...but should still be smart and prepare for the worst when the barometer is screaming storm.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:01 | 497102 SuperBull
SuperBull's picture

Dear Papa,

Gulf has been deemed clean by the government.  There is no more oil spill.  The mother nature is fixing the problem. 

Ponzi scheme?  I don't know what you are talking about. 

Yes, there are corruption, and that is why we should tell Obama to be more vigilant and cut unnecessary government spendings. 

 

In all, we can't hope to change EVERYTHING in one or two days.  It will take time; and that means we have to let Obama to finish the job.  Rather than pushing and belitting our government and our leader; we should encourage them to act.  The economy is not in its best shape; but we could have gone much worse.  We feel uneasy just like you folks here; but we have faith in our ability to overcome any obstacle; and because of that we feel content and we are ready to march forward.  Things are turning around for better; I'll leave it at that.

I'm enjoying a cupcake right now, I'm sorry I can't share it with you.  However, you have my good wishes.

 

Have a wonderful weekend, Papaswamp. 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:58 | 497185 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Silly me...you are using the new Sarco2000 OS...you are correct drive on have a great weekend.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 22:01 | 497396 merehuman
merehuman's picture

WOW superbull, you can sure spread that semen. It was worth a lot once upon a time, and we do know reality from your fiction. You are full of it!

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:08 | 497100 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

You're right, we'll be fine. Foreigners will always by our debt. Computers do trade stocks better than carbon based life forms. We will grow our GDP at roughly %5 per year and pay off the deficit. Free money won't lose its way and create another asset bubble in Treasuries. The dollar will remain strong forever. The Central Bankers will never run out of Gold to sell Short and would never risk letting its price get out of control. Position Limits in the Gold and Silver market will be killed just in the nick of time and thereby avoid the massive run on the Comex that could create a conflagration that will consume the entire world.

Ben Bernanke IS the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.

Ben Bernanke is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.

Ben Bernanke is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.

Ben Bernanke is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.

Ben Bernanke is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.

Ben Bernanke is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.

Ben Bernanke is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.

Ben Bernanke is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.

Ben Bernanke is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.

Ben Bernanke is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.

Ben Bernanke is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.

 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:23 | 497129 SuperBull
SuperBull's picture

Dear DarkMath,

We feel your discomfort and utter contempt against our system.  We are sorry that we couldn't cure all the bad problems in time.  We sure hope could have... but much like ourselves, the system is not perfect.  Our system has flaws, yes... But it is the best system known to man.

There are many patriotic men and women are who spend sleepless days and nights to serve the people and protect the country; because they know that our system of the government, the economy and the society is worth defending. 

While some of us ridicule Chairman Ben Bernanke (BB), he is not an omnipotent all knowing God; while he intends to serve and protect the system, he is blamed and discredited at every opportunity.  Like vultures these cynical evilminded bearish porn writers devour anyone who makes even the tiniest honest mistake. 

Yes, it is easier to finger someone for making even a small mistake.

Yes, it is sensational to ridicule someone.

 

We should put a stop to all this mindless bickering.  We are better than this. 

Our system is based on individual choice, liberty & freedom.  Rather than emitting aura of hate, perhaps you should consider making wise personal choices that will have direct 'positive' impact on your life.  I.e. take time to study (other than studying to hate more), learn new skills, make more love...etc.

When individuals make rational choices we as a society will collectively benefit; hatred is an inefficient use (i.e. waste) of your emotional energy. 

We hope you the best.

Enjoy a great weekend.

 

:D

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:31 | 497137 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

You stoners crack me up:

Okay.                 
That means that...
our whole solar system...
could be, like...
one tiny atom in the fingernail of some other giant being. 
                  
This is too much!  
                  
That means...  
-one tiny atom in my fingernail could be--
-Could be one little...tiny universe.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 19:32 | 497258 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

"We feel your discomfort and utter contempt against our system."

"Our system is based on individual choice, liberty & freedom. "

"they know that our system of the government, the economy and the society is worth defending. "

"Our system of the government"...you aren't from around here are you SuperBull? Let me see, you speak often of the collective good...Chinese?....no, too much mention of Love, so your first tongue may have been that of a Romance Language...can we say Spanish? Yes, but where do people speak Spanish with a twist of Totalitarianism? Hhhm South America, yes you come from somewhere in South America.

Well Senor SuperBull, the party is over amigo. Your witnessing the last gasps of a once great nation now running off the fumes of a spent can of air duster.

"Our system is based on individual choice, liberty & freedom."

And making fun of other people...which I grow tired of tonight so until next week fuzzy foreigner I bid you adieu.

 

 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 22:04 | 497402 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Darth Vader, is that you trying to be nice?

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:13 | 497121 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

You remind me of Marie Antoinette. Enjoy your cupcake.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:29 | 497136 PhattyBuoy
PhattyBuoy's picture

Ignorance is bliss !!

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 17:50 | 497172 SuperBull
SuperBull's picture

The world is not coming to an end.

If you are living a life to 'hate' someone, then you are living a hallow life.  Your life means much more than directing your negative emotion to someone. 

Sigh...

It seems that there are waaaaaay too many lost souls here...

 

 

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 19:45 | 497271 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

k, I've been smiling at your posts, trying to decide whether this is some kind of performance art (re: your avatar, etc.). . .

but no way am I passing up this:

If you are living a life to 'hate' someone, then you are living a hallow life.

perhaps you mean "hollow" - but I'm going with "hallow," definition being "holy, sanctified". . .

while I'm loathe to promote hatred, to sanctify the hatred of this system we all labour under, with little recourse to change it. . . yeah, I can get behind that!

hehe.

Fri, 07/30/2010 - 22:09 | 497405 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Cathartes Aura, Hi. Good to have you along for the ride.

Sat, 07/31/2010 - 00:40 | 497509 zaknick
zaknick's picture
by Cathartes Aura
on Fri, 07/30/2010 - 18:45
#497271


k, I've been smiling at your posts, trying to decide whether this is some kind of performance art (re: your avatar, etc.). . .

but no way am I passing up this:

If you are living a life to 'hate' someone, then you are living a hallow life.

perhaps you mean "hollow" - but I'm going with "hallow," definition being "holy, sanctified". . .

while I'm loathe to promote hatred, to sanctify the hatred of this system we all labour under, with little recourse to change it. . . yeah, I can get behind that!

hehe.

 

 

TEAR IT DOWN

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