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Is A Market Crash Coming? The WSJ Ponders...
In a unorthodox piece by the WSJ, which goes direct to discussing some of the less than pleasant possible outcomes of central planning, Brett Arends asks "could Wall Street be about to crash again? This week's bone-rattlers may be making you wonder" and says: "way too many people are way too complacent this summer. Here are 10 reasons to watch out." And without further ado...
- The market is already expensive. Stocks are about 20
times cyclically-adjusted earnings, according to data compiled by Yale
University economics professor Robert Shiller. That's well above
average, which, historically, has been about 16. This ratio has been a
powerful predictor of long-term returns. Valuation is by far the most
important issue for investors. If you're getting paid well to take
risks, they may make sense. But what if you're not? - The Fed is getting nervous. This week it
warned that the economy had weakened, and it unveiled its latest weapon
in the war against deflation: using the proceeds from the sale of
mortgages to buy Treasury bonds. That should drive down long-term
interest rates. Great news for mortgage borrowers. But hardly something
one wants to hear when the Dow Jones Industrial Average is already north
of 10000. - Too many people are too bullish.
Active money managers are expecting the market to go higher, according
to the latest survey by the National Association of Active Investment
Managers. So are financial advisers, reports the weekly survey by
Investors Intelligence. And that's reason to be cautious. The time to
buy is when everyone else is gloomy. The reverse may also be true. - Deflation is already here. Consumer prices
have fallen for three months in a row. And, most ominously, it's
affecting wages too. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, last
quarter, workers earned 0.7% less in real terms per hour than they did a
year ago. No wonder the Fed is worried. In deflation, wages, company
revenues, and the value of your home and your investments may shrink in
dollar terms. But your debts stay the same size. That makes deflation a
vicious trap, especially if people owe way too much money. - People still owe way too much money. Households,
corporations, states, local governments and, of course, Uncle Sam. It's
the debt, stupid. According to the Federal Reserve, total U.S.
debt—even excluding the financial sector—is basically twice what it was
10 years ago: $35 trillion compared to $18 trillion. Households have
barely made a dent in their debt burden; it's fallen a mere 3% from last
year's all-time peak, leaving it twice the level of a decade ago. - The jobs picture is much worse than they're telling you.
Forget the "official" unemployment rate of 9.5%. Alternative measures?
Try this: Just 61% of the adult population, age 20 or over, has any kind
of job right now. That's the lowest since the early 1980s—when many
women stayed at home through choice, driving the numbers down. Among men
today, it's 66.9%. Back in the '50s, incidentally, that figure was
around 85%, though allowances should be made for the higher number of
elderly people alive today. And many of those still working right now
can only find part-time work, so just 59% of men age 20 or over
currently have a full-time job. This is bullish? (Today's bonus
question: If a laid-off contractor with two kids, a mortgage and a car
loan is working three night shifts a week at his local gas station, how
many iPads can he buy for Christmas?) - Housing remains a disaster.
Foreclosures rose again last month. Banks took over another 93,000
homes in July, says foreclosure specialist RealtyTrac. That's a rise of
9% from June and just shy of May's record. We're heading for 1 million
foreclosures this year, RealtyTrac says. And naturally the ripple
effects hurt all those homeowners not in foreclosure, by driving down
prices. See deflation (No. 4) above. - Labor Day is approaching. Ouch.
It always seems to be in September-October when the wheels come off
Wall Street. Think 2008. Think 1987. Think 1929. Statistically, there
actually is a "September effect." The market, on average, has done worse
in that month than any other. No one really knows why. Some have even
blamed the psychological effect of shortening days. But it becomes
self-reinforcing: People fear it, so they sell. - We're looking at gridlock in Washington.
Election season has already begun. And the Democrats are expected to
lose seats in both houses in November. (Betting at InTrade, a bookmaker
in Dublin, Ireland, gives the GOP a 62% chance of taking control of the
House.) As our political dialogue seems to have collapsed beyond all
possible hope of repair, let's not hope for any "bipartisan" agreements
on anything of substance. Do you think this is a good thing? As Davis
Rosenberg at investment firm Gluskin Sheff pointed out this week,
gridlock is only a good thing for investors "when nothing needs fixing."
Today, he notes, we need strong leadership. Not gonna happen. - All sorts of other indicators are flashing amber. The
Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, while still
positive, weakened again in July. So did ISM's new-orders indicator. The
trade deficit has widened, and second-quarter GDP growth was much lower
than first thought. ECRI's Weekly Leading Index has been flashing
warning lights for weeks. Europe's industrial production in June turned
out considerably worse than expected. Even China's steamroller economy
is slowing down. Tech bellwether Cisco Systems
has signaled caution ahead. Individually, each of these might mean
little. Collectively, they make me wonder. In this environment, I might
be happy to buy shares if they were cheap. But not so much if they're
expensive. See No. 1 above.
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The more people talk about it, the less likely it will happen
Sad, but true.
definitely a valid view from the 2nd derivative.
then again those in charge of leaking these stories out into the public eye may have already anticipated that this would be the exact reaction, thus taking it to the 3rd derivative.
if so, then us discussing this possibility would be taking it to the 4th derivative.
...and so on and so on and so on...
your move mr. spock
Final move: nothing happens either way - total flatline.
The Ataris read the news, don't they? They might take it as an instruction.
Nah, we got anothe beautiful stick-save goin' on by the algos today. Be of good cheer and keep on buying people. Invest with confidence in America, for we are the greatest.
Invest? Yeah, that means your wallet in my vest.
exactly...at S&P 999.99999999
You running an Intel P60?
this is wall street trying to crash it ?
the same 10 arguments held true as it rose from 666 to 1215. So how come WSJ is writing this crap now ?
You read my mind... plus, all 10 reasons are KNOWN, and thus discounted (altho this time of year DOES have a certain attraction for market disasters).
What would be needed is an UNKNOWN match to spark all that tinder.. call it a black swan if you like using slightly overdone concepts. Frankly, I can pretty easily think of a dozen or so of those that could jump out of the weeds.
But the Chief Propeller Head, The Keebler Elf, Jamie and Lloyd all know this too... as do their algos.
They are known, but are they believed by all market participants?
Are you referring to the electronic or carbon-based participants?
I just think there has to be a catalyst that hasn't presented itself yet in order to take this thing down hard. Is it out there somewhere, waiting for the proper time? Probably. Would I like to see it? Oh yes (that ALONE is why it may not happen).
LOL. Wishing it away or ignoring it doesn't make it go away either. We're in an economic depression, afterall. However, if you want a competing cliche to the talking-about-it-will-make-it-less-likely, think about it as a self-fulfilling prophesy.
Kindof like how in golf you're supposed to not think about the big huge lake in the middle of the lake hole? Hm, no, kindof exactly the opposite of that.
"Don't think about the lake. Don't think about the lake. No lake, no lake, no lake...DAMMIT!"
They had Congressional hearings on the speculative fervor on Wall Street and the possibility of a crash in the late 1920s. Contrary to popular opinion and quotes of Irving Fisher aside, there was a shitload of highly knowledgeable people who knew the bug was heading for the windshield.
Of the many source materials, one I recently finished that focused on early twentieth century economics, central banking, and the gold standard was "The Lords of Finance". It gets at many issues you collective gaggle of nutcases rant about. (Those are terms of endearment, BTW.)
Put shorts in barrel, shoot!
The media is just a tool. HFT, Fed Intervention, short squeezes... and all of Obama's horsemen say "recovery!".
Zero Hedge was mentioned in CNBC
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38690976
Financial Web sites Zero Hedge and Gold Seek both claimed that all five of the omen's criteria were satisfied on Thursday.
I found the next sentence laughable.
Fairly complex only if you stick to just your 10 fingers. If you pull off your shoes and socks and pull out your 10 little piggies, it becomes much easier to figure.
"Stand back ladies and gentlemen, only real experts can handle numbers greater than 10. Make way for the heavy lifters. Wow, what's that smell?"
Whenever number problems arise, my wife likes to point out that most men can count to 21 pretty easily.
My ex-wife accused me of never getting past "1".
At times, when the blood's pumping, she's absolutely correct. Talk about a "1" track mind.:>)
'what's that smell?' If its not stinky feet it could be rotten Guppy.
A crash requires an enormous catalyst, such as intense fear of systemic failure.
When we're ready we will make it happen.
A crash requires only more selling than buying, on a large scale. It does not matter what triggers it.
A crash doesn't require an enormous event ... it does require a 'waterfall' event. Usually, the waterfall event erupts a cascade of 'fails' (due to underassessment of counter-party risk, fraud, etc).
It's the whole 'snowball' effect ... however, there are circuit breakers now so maybe you are right that the 'crash' now requires an epic event. There is a lot of concentration of 'value' in just a few stocks right now (ie APPL being 20% of the nazzie). Tyler has posted on the correlation of stocks moving in 'lock-step' as well.
So yeah, something 'big' could cause a crash but my money is still on a credit market 'seizure'. Something like that can pancake an overleveraged equity space in hurry!
I think a bank failure in EU or a failed EU bond auction will do. Seems very likely to happen as well.
Listening to the blabbing on the MSM, I would hazard to guess that not many of the above 10 items are "priced in". There's still a lot of optimism that this is a cyclical recovery. Not a structural FAILURE. I believe it's the latter.
I'm a little confused.
Either the market is rigged and run by algos or it's not.
ZH certainly claims it is often enough.
How could the market possibly crash? Algo on a coffee break?
See Flash Crash. The algos will step back from the market in a major move, especially down. They buy when they calculate it is to their advantage to make quick minute profits. Not risk 2-3 standard deviation moves (see LTCM).
So a large drop is still possible if ironically the move is sudden or large enough. And this possibility is heightened given the low carbon-based participation in the market.
It's easy when the algos start trading against each other.
Straw man argument.
I don't see anyone who has knowledge of what's going on saying the market is rigged and run by algos. What I see being said by informed sources (including ZH's Tyler) is the market is manipulated. "Rigged and run by algos" implies total or near total control. The market is too big for there to be total or near total control all the time or even some of the time.
But during times of low volume or overnight in a thin futures market or when they wish to scare and move the herd, there is enough leverage that can be applied to move the market. And once you get a large herd moving, the herd does most the work for you. But to think you have control of the herd is an illusion. Just ask any cowboy who's dealt with a herd that's been spooked by lightening/thunder or some other event.
What about Pelosi and Co. still controlling the House and Senate come Jan 1? Is that structural enough?
When you start seeing a lot of MSM articles on how bad things are getting, then it's priced in. Learned that lesson in 2008 when going into the fall, I mistakenly assumed that the subprime, CDO crap was priced in, because there had been a trickle of articles for months (and years) that had laid out the situation pretty clearly and cogently.
The WSJ of today is not the WSJ of over 20 years ago, much less of almost 81 years ago when William Hamilton's front page WSJ article "Turn of the Tide" appeard in the Oct. 25, 1929 issue. Arends' article, a relative fluff piece in comparison, was an online only one, albeit at the top of the "Personal Finance" section webpage.
Much as my heart loves fundamentals, I trade with my head on technicals, as the two can diverge much longer than one would think.
I would think the most likely catalyst could be the simultaneous US double dip with the sovereign debt crisis in eurozone. So far, over the past 9 months these 2 issues have moved in tandem in the minds of investors. Earlier this year it was all about the EU sovereign debt crisis but the economic data in the US was fairly positive as the stimulus was going through the economy. The suger high, err stimulus, has now worn off and investors are getting very concerned (rightfully so) about a double dip but the eurozone debt crisis has largely been forgotten about over the past few months a the EU bailout and farce test kicked the can down the road, extend and pretend. Have a look at the sharp rally in EU sovereign CDS over the past week, they have spiked again.
If both of these issues come home at the same time that would be enough to finally convince investors of the bleeding obvious, that there is no recovery, and they would panic. for those of us still trading these markets a good point to remember. If you are going to panic, make sure you panic first!
But We Have "Circuit Breakers" now !
Can't Happen
Some of you are in desperate need of anti-depressants.
Nah, extasy just makes fine..... Plus good quality weed helps to overcome deppressing market.
And solar stocks too, where can I get some?
Can you name or recommend any good ones Leo?
Others are in need of Reality Pills
Once you take the red pill there is no going back.
some of us others need ayahuasca?
or a McKenna "heroic dose" of the little guys, eh.
+++ for ceremony, and awareness.
"If the doors of perception were cleansed every thing would appear to man as it is, infinite.
For man has closed himself up, till he sees all things thro' narow chinks of his cavern." - W.B.
In California we grow our own...
Ah, so that's your trick to achieving the pollyanna outlook. Drugs.
Man I thought all we had to do was look at the fundamentals to cheer ourselves up?
"drugs"?
amrka leads the world on Prozac, etc. mood enhancing drugs, if that's what you're referring to. . .
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-05/did-antidepres...
thanks Eli Lilly!
[ edit: I was making reference to doing a bit of reflecting on the reality of this farce. . . with plant substances and a good guide, not pharma-copy & a whitecoat prescriptor.]
God Bless the United State of Antidepression
How did this guy get by the WSJ (self) censors? The market is already expensive? Not if you use forward projected manipulated pie-in-the-sky national security ordered P/E numbers.
Oh, I get it. (slaps forehead in disgust for being so stupid) It's double secret reversed reverse psychology upon themselves. :>)
Or just CYA for the WSJ, in case, something fuzzy this way comes. :-)
CYA was my guess. And, they wouldn't roll that one out until the very end. Consider it an unintentional warning that the wheels might be coming off.
There is the possibility that the Administration is beginning to lose its leverage.
If you read the angry comments posted under the original article, they all claim it to be Rupert Murdoch's anti-Obama propaganda from the "right wing media"(!).
Things don't need to make economic sense once the laws of supply/demand have been short circuited. We live in a Zombie Economy, totally dependent on Fed injected "liquidity" for "growth". The day the Fed withdraws liquidity or begins to believe that the economy can walk on it's own we'll have a crash.
Great article from Jim Willie covering the disconnect between stocks and bond prices (oh, and our banker friendly Fed):
http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/aug122010.html
Holy shit! Santelli just went OFF!
gotta get that clip, Tyler. Starts off with a ZH mention.
Would like to see that!
Long live ZH!
@mark mchugh
Thanks for the heads up. Gonna watch this for entertainment prior to the start of cocktail hour.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1565705592&play=1
ZH mentioned at around 1:40
whee doggies. listen to the applause! haha
As much as the Fed would like they cannot create inflation and that must be frightening them. It is beyond their understanding that 0% rates for 2 years, record low mortgage rates, tax credits and fresh cash for banks has not been able to jumpstart the bubble. So now they are saying how can we possible inflate away all this massive debt we have taken on to pay for these small upward blips. As confidence is lost in the ability of the Fed and the Central banks to spin the plates the likelihood of a crash increases.
How about one that follows the lowest volume rally in market history? How much cash has been thrown at the markets through their proxies to keep the markets out of the grave? They must be seeing for themselves how expensive the interventions are and the diminshed results. With ZH pointing out the record equity outflow Fed intervention in markets is as well as proven in my book considering the height of this market even now as I type.
Wall Street and the Fed made an insanely dangerous bet that they could buy stocks cheap, restore confidence, reflate housing, bring up employment and offload all their "bottom picking" to the morts, mutual funds and foreignors by about this time. So now it is just them in Thunderdome and they will take from one another, rumor monger about liquidity orcrumble the markets to get more QE. They did not anticipate that the Eurozone would be a pinprick from default and destruction, global contraction reliant upon the American consumer and a Chinese collapse which is also reliant upon American consumers. They were all living on the Uncle Sam easy credit to the moon. All they have achieved is making our situation even more dangerous while using the middle class once again as a buffer and afforded them some time to build their castles and moats.
This is why you do not negotiate with financial terrorists.
Well said Mr. McCloy.
Wow. Bravo.
couldn´t have said it better myself. nowhere near as good actually. nice post.
Kickass.
Wasn't I arguing this exact point with you months ago? The Fed is powerless and they know it. We give them more credit than they deserve when all they are trying to do is preserve themselves and their greatest commodity, FRN's. It's congress that creates inflation and they answer to voters. In other words, pubic mood and perception is what ultimately drives the market/economy no matter what the anyone thinks the FED can and can't do.
Well put. For the most part I agree, but I don't believe that the core decision makers in the Gov't and Private Sector actually believed this would work at all.
In fact, if one assumes that their goal has been to profit from future economic failure, not recovery, one need only look to the events of the last Great Depression, to see a similar and all too predictable double dip. And little discussed events like the "Business Plot" are a good rhyme for likely designs going forward.
Money? They have plenty of it. What they want is to bust this country out -- not for money -- but to transplant our geopolitical power (economic, cultural, and military) to either shards à la the disintegration of the USSR, or to other powers entirely, such as the shift of power from Europe to this Continent a few generations ago.
Folks, if you think the end game is about money, you're thinking too little. The end game for these guys (both D's and R's, but more specifically the people who control them) is the destruction of this country.
+1
Arends pretty well lays it out. He might also have mentioned the war card. Many have predicted a very rough second half. I wouldn’t be surprised one way or the other.
Tin hat on. A crash (or threat of one) could make gold go through the roof. Some of the peeps who need cash could then sell gold into the engineered rally and meet their margin calls. Just sayin.'
Caviar Emptor wrote:
Things don't need to make sense once the laws of supply and demand have been short circuited.
I agree with that assessment.
I have read that 1% of the people own 50% of the stocks.
Even if that number is inaccurate, I still think a stock market crash is the last event to happen in a sour economy.
All the rich people unconsciously protect each other.
Don Levit
Oh shit, I forgot, it's Friday the 13th! This guy thinks a crash is imminent!
A year from now, Jason will be about as popular as EU austerity measures. Will an unprecedented fiat driven reflation push equities? My guess is yes but gold will be there too, setting records in all currencies.
....
Uh - I hate to tell you this, but you keep forgetting Jason keeps coming back no matter how many times he appears dead... Your uber-optimism astounds, Leo.
Jason - that reminds me: how'd JASO do on Tuesday in the end?
and then there is this:
In perhaps one of the sharpest critiques of Federal Reserve policy ever from a sitting policy member, Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, said zero interest rates were "a dangerous gamble" in a period of moderate growth. In a speech in Lincoln, Nebraska, Hoenig warned that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his allies were trying to use monetary policy as a "cure-all" for "every problem faced by the United States today." Keeping rates too low for too long will only lead to a repeat of the cycle of severe recession and unemployment in a few short years, he warned. Hoenig has dissented at every Fed policy meeting this year. He wants the Fed to commit to a slow and gradual increase in the target Federal funds rate. Hoenig argued that the economic news was not as bad as reported in the media and described by Wall Street experts. The markets want zero rates to continue because they are earning guaranteed returns on free money, he said. Hoenig dismissed fears of deflation
Hell yes they're trying for monetary policy to be the cure-all. Their goal is to achieve total dependence on the dollar and therefore control over the people. "Give me control of the money, and I care not who makes the laws" or whatever the Rothschild quote was.
If not for the uptick rule and feigned oversight of nakedshorts right now. . . Buh bye!
S&P 500 average dividends are too low, historically speaking, to justify current stock prices. Companies may say they have good earnings, but the proof is in the pay-out, at least over the long term.
Worrying about stock dividend yields is so .....er......fundamental, so yesterday........er.......yester-year......er......yester-decade.
It's a new paradigm, a new normal where everything revolves around the quantity and velocity of the (FED) juice and quite naturally (co)location, (co)location and (co)location. Everything else just doesn't matter. :>)
NO ONE i know is positive on STOCKS. what are you guys smoking?????
go check out the blogs..or message boards. nothing but whiny negative traders who want stocks lower.
If you want a dose of hopium, visit blogs of CNBC, Google finance, Yahoo, etc.
Tripps - WE GET IT. YOU'RE SMARTER THAN US. NOW GET THE F__K OUT OF HERE.
Coffee Break horror video at Jesse’s Café Americain: William Black and Max Keiser peer into the depths of finance fraud.
William K. Black on ‘Financial Racketeering’: Government Coverup; a 250% Tax Increase
(The interview with William K. Black starts at 13:00 in this video and is well worth seeing.)
Gresham's Dynamic: The least ethically inclined have an advantage in the US financial system (in which regulatory capture nullifies enforcement) driven by perverse incentives of oversized bonuses and the failure to investigate and prosecute criminal activity.
In addition to the overhang of unindicted fraud that is still in place, distorting the clearing of the markets, there is the issue of an imbalanced economy in which an oversized finanical sector exacts what amounts to a draconian tax on the real economy, that is, fees and tariffs and other unproductive drains in excess of anything that the government is levying.
What Do You Get for a 250% Tax Increase?
As I recall the percentage of financial sector profits to corporate profits recently peaked at 41%, from a long run average of less than 16%. Granted, this is a bit theoretical because of the pervasive accounting fraud in the banks and the corporations.
I wonder what the percentage of profit, pre-bonus, is being enjoyed now?
This can be viewed as a form of a tax. If the government raised taxes from 16% to 41% what do you think the impact on the US economy would be? And yet there is little discussion of this, or the racketeering that accompanied such a festival of looting.
Yet conceptually this is what has been accomplished through the deregulation of the banks and the repeal of Glass-Steagall, and of course, regulatory capture. The financial sector acts primarily as a capital accumulation and allocation system, and wealth transferral. I would suggest that this system is broken, and that there can be no sustainable recovery until it is fixed.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/08/william-k-black-on-financial.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain%29
dear Jesse delivers once again with a prime cut of clarity and a dose of panache.
one minor quibble: it's not just U.S. financial system, it's its entire social fabric.
This made me laugh:
Deflation?
I keep waiting to see this happening, but every time I open a new bill which has doubled since the month before, I find myself not believing in deflation.
Inflation in things you do need, deflation in things you don't need. That is until the bottom falls out; a lot of people are currently employed creating things nobody actually needs. Employment should be near 20% by the time reality finds them and weeds them out.
I write software, so I am one of them. See you on the other side.
I write software too. I think people still need it. Our world is too complex to NOT need it.
I guess, however, if our civilization devolves technologically, then yeah, maybe not so much.
Not to be a doomsdayer, but civilization going backwards *does* happen. We're just conditioned to always expect society to move forward because that's the sum of our experience. A sober reading of world history would quickly disabuse you of that notion.
Don't understand the high ratings for this. It's a passable summary of things that investors should already know. Maybe the fact that the question is even being asked in the WSJ is cause for celebration. Recall that the author, Brett Arends, wrote a really lame piece on gold not long ago.
it's the WSJ thing. More people are becoming aware (too late, but anyway).
All you need is a simple loss of confidence as in the longer I leave my investment the less it will be worth.
It's quite possible that your ruling financial oligarchy has approved of the next collapse in equity prices. This all seems brazenly orchestrated. This shit doesn't end up in wsj, or cnbc, or any other of the statists publications by mistake.
True. And Since Wall Street can't attract any money on the long side, they might as well see if they can skin some bears.
Of course, people like us refusing to play at all is what scares them the most.
Owner of the WSJ? News Corporation, Rupert Murdoch
Rupert Murdoch. The most evil man on Earth.
Market stuck in a trading range. "They" won't let it crash, may have a thousand point swing in either direction every month or two but that will be about the extent of the excitement.
Santelli reminds me of Bruce Willis in the mental hospital in 12 Monkeys trying to convince them he is the only "sane person" in the ward.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8zd6HBhuQI
"The truth, you either see it or you don't."
As of 2:13pm EST... just coiling like a spring on a inside day. Got my shorts still - going to hold it until Monday or Tuesday depending. Still think the wheels could come off just a little bit here before I cover.
OEX Aug 505 Puts, which expire next week - so I can't hold 'em too long.
Someone tell me what to do... if I short the market, it will go up 1000 pts. If I go long, it will go down (a lot). Right now I'm neutral. Will someone from the government tell me what to do so I can get front run by HFTs and lose more money? Market seems adrift because I'm not losing money...
Very, very funny.
You are the ultimate contrarian market maker. Please publish your trades ahead of time for everyone else to profit from them.
All I can say is buy gold. It goes up when the market is up, down, sideways, closed, taking a cigarette break, during inflation, deflation, stagflation, stagnation, recession, depression, compression, de-leveraging, risk on, risk off, credit expansion, contraction etc etc etc. you can't lose. Buy now or regret not making more money. Why wouldn't you want to make more money?
"I'm not the smartest guy in the world, I just found the formula"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2euOpJl3yQ
that was downright funny. Tom Vu needs to be on the Federal Reserve board. Vote for Tom..
Other than that Mrs Lincoln, how was the play?