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Market In Goldman EURUSD Call Credibility At Record Lows
From Goldman:
Unfortunately the Eur was not able to squueze higher to our sell
target of 1.3475 , so we have had to stick with the core rather than
build an increased position . Eurostat 2009 estimates suggesting
bigger budget defecits for Greece and other peripherals have
accelerated the move out in Greek and other spreads . This in turn has
led the euro lower but FX still has some way to go to catch up with the
move in cds . As we sit here at 1.3335 the risk I think is still
weighted to the downside . The chance of a test and break of the years
low (1.3267) ahead of the weekend is high and I would still advocate
playing from the short side . Resistance to the topside should now be
strong between 1.3425/50 indeed given the current pressure a recovery
back above 1.3400 would be disappointing . Any further fresh negative
news or indeed a break of the lows could lead to an acceleration to the
downmove and the prospect of a move to 1.30/1.31 .
_____________________________________________
From: Pierce, Jon [Sec Div]
Sent: Wednesday, April 21, 2010 8:50 AM
To: Pierce, Jon [Sec Div]
Subject: Eur update
Yesterday was really a day when the euro should have performed better
. Strong data (ZEW), risk rallying and a decent Greek issuance were
reasonable grounds for a squueze to punish the shorts , yet we topped
out at 1.3523 and Greek spreads continued to trade poorly . The market
is still rightly sceptical about the sustainability of the Greek
situation and the rescue package at large . I continue to think that
the risk continues to be tilted towards the downside , though also
recognise that the risk reward of selling after a slide from 1.3691 is
less appealing at these levels . Our strategy is to stick with a core
short position and look to take advantage of intra day rallies to add
. 1.3470/80 would be an attractive shorting level should we see a mini
recovery as I would expect resistance at 1.3500 and again at yesterdays
high of 1.3523 . I would place a stop on them at 1.3550 . To the
downside 1.3380 should offer first support , and would look for a
potential test of the years double bottom of 1.3267/82 . More damning
news and a close below the lows would open up a new leg lower .
Good luck
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"Thanks for your money, suckers!"
- Lloyd Blankfein
Gold down $13
Chipotle up $11
LOL....
Guess that just confirms, you can't eat gold (but you can eat Chipotle).
Obviously, he was reading Goldman's chapter in the PPT playbook, not FX rules. Hey, Jon Pierce, predatory trading tactics don't work so easily in FX markets. May all of you GS bastards have your comeuppance.
Like an old tube of toothpaste, Goldman is squeezing out every last drop before discarding it for the next tube. An exhaustible supply of fools ensures lots of new tubes of toothpaste for the Goldmanites.
Jon-jon is definitely squeezing something out here, but it isn't toothpaste. How much does this clown get paid to spew useless crap like this day after after day? Seriously, I'd like to know.
He heh - the ECB does not have those lovely FX swap lines anymore - like they did in 2008. How are they going to defend a total collapse of the Euro? Weakening your own currency is easy - stregthening it - not so easy. A lot of countries will find this out . They'll have to jack up interest rates sky high if they ever get in a position where the market smells blood.
Whew! Crisis averted - Existing Homes Sales up more than expected. See there's always something to save the day.
Oh, and I guess you agree with the earlier headline, "Unemployment claims drop sharply," which was utter BS.
ETA: Nice job changing your avatar to an American flag, John Borchers.
umm actually I think the plan is to have the POTUS give the spanking to wall street in the midst of smouldering ruin!!
Easily overcome. They just have to make Fabrice Tourre the face of their EURUSD analysis and let the n-tuple reverse psychology ("we know that they know that we know that we know that we ...") take effect. And they say that you can't hedge against reputation risk.
Could Goldman be right this time?
GOLDMAN LAUNCHES PR "OFFENSIVE":
http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/2010/04/goldman-sachs-launches-pr-bar...
WB7
Thanks for highlighting the Magnetar screwing on your web site.
All ZH'rs, here is the link to the Pro Publica story.
http://www.propublica.org/feature/all-the-magnetar-trade-how-one-hedge-fund-helped-keep-the-housing-bubble
Lets see....Goldman tells me to 'play from the short side' on their Euro trade....so then GS is actually LONG with a bunch of calls sold as insurance? So confusing working with the Vampire Squid.
Double reverse psych. Thet tell you go short; you think they are attemting to screw you again so you go long in an attempt to not be screwed.
But alas, Goldman really does go short this time, screwing the folks that thought the squid was doing the usual trade against its clients!
Right...today you have to guess where you are in the line- 'We know that they know that we know that they KNOW that we know'... etc.... Good luck!
...you know what? F'em. It's all too confusing. I'm going long AND short in different accounts at the same time. Gotcha Blankfein!
It would be nice to see the squid cry foul if they ever managed to get screwed on a deal themselves!