This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The Market Is Hurting For A Squirting
From Nic Lenoir of ICAP
The Market Is Hurting For A Squirting
Was this the latest case of buy the rumor and sell the news after QE 2.0 proved to be pretty much the lows in yields (for now at least)? The market started the day bright eyed and bushy tailed after last night's announcement by Washington that a tax deal is close: Republicans win, Democrats win, America loses! The conversation probably went something like this: Republicans: "If you don't extend the tax breaks we will roll back your health-care plan"; Obama: "But this is my place in history at stake here! Ok you get the tax breaks, but I am going to add my own twist with social security tax cut (it's so far under water it doesn't matter anymore) and extension of unemployment insurance, this way the folks hurting out there know I am looking out for them and I don't look like I just got owned"; Vigilante: "That's 900Bn over 2 years, who's going to pay for this?"; Republicans and Democrats: "Ha ha ha."
Now however, there are a slew of VERY nasty charts that I would like to highlight following on the heads up I gave last night.
1/ S&P futures touched the 61.8% retracement of the sell-off since the 2007 highs to the tick at 1,235 and posted a bearish hammer on the highs (meanwhile we have not even retraced 8% of the rise in the unemployment rate since 2007... food for thought)
2/ Nasdaq futures posted a similar bearish hammer candle on the tops, and there is huge divergence
3/ VIX posted a bullish reversal (usually a bearish sign for equities). Granted the reversal did not happen outside the Bollinger bands, but it occurred at the market lows since April and the flash crash
4/ Gold posted a key bearish reversal (bearish engulfing candle after 3 up days) with huge bearish divergence in RSI
5/ Silver posted a key bearish reversal (bearish engulfing candle after 3 up days) with huge bearish divergence in RSI
Individually they are quite powerful technical reversals, together they are very very very important. I can't stress it enough, I have not seen a set-up like that in a long time. In Fixed Income I expected one last dip possibly, but I must admit, I did not expect that big a move at all. Now we need to see how tomorrow trades after the huge reversals in risk. The Bund is exhibiting huge divergence of momentum indicators. Maybe a gap down at open overnight and we close up to post another hammer, this one bullish for German Bunds? If we trade lower tomorrow and get a bad auction it could mean we are in for a complete wipe-out across asset classes. Washington and the ECB earned it so I won't cry over spilled milk. The political class and central bankers have been cruising for a bruising for some time now.
Be very cautious ahead of tomorrow, year-end is approaching, nobody will want to gamble their year and if things start sliding it can get out of control as no one will really have incentive to step up and provide liquidity.
Good luck trading,
Nic
»
- 15964 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
The men behind the curtain will be very, very busy in the after-hours..
My wife and I actually lol'd on this title
Paging Ben Shalom Bukkake, paging Ben Shalom Bukkake.
They are also busy trying to arrest Mr. Assange for being an International Pimp. I didn't know that was illegal?
All this time, I have been breaking the law, and getting away with it!!
About that squirting thing. I’ve always wanted to be in the forensic sciences, but never had an opportunity, and I’ve decided to do some research on my own. I’m talking about that Assange guy. He is charged with having sex with woman W when she slept and he did not wear condom.
I did all preparation to conduct really scientific experiment, including special oils and things like that. I waited a long time for my wife, around 40, and you know at this age they like a lot of activity, to get asleep.
Then I tried to simulate situation when I’m with the woman just hosting me at her apartment, for a night, I slipped quietly into bed an started to probe for bodies around, I know you will tell me that I did not have to look for it, but I did and what the hell I found? There is she, but she’s wearing something on her butt, ok, there is some problem and we have to overcome it. After half an hour struggle and conversation which I cannot repeat here, I accomplished first task and let her to fall asleep again.
Now I have to proceed to main research task that means having sex. I’m not talking about wearing condoms because, wasting time on putting it on would kill my research energy and wasted the whole experiment.
Now I’m getting into totally screwed up situation, she’s asleep in very awkward position, there is no way I can do it even with 5-30 synthetic oil, ok, lets try to remedy that and position her properly. After few tries and many bad words I accomplished that, but at that time I was not able to conduct experiment. 5 min later I regain my powers and, fuck she is again in wrong position.
At that time I decided to go fast and decisive and what’s the final result? She told me to fuck off and go to sleep or use other methods if I really want to.
Any ideas to help me and Swedish authorities?
You buffoon. Any fool knows 0-40 synthetics with teflon additives are de rigeur in such situations.
Crud, and I parted with TBT today.
buy it back at 10 AM...if yer really brassy: TMV
got rid of tbt yesterday, gonna grab it again at 31
wise move still. wait till they let the stock market get axed. all that funny money will have to go somewhere and it likely won't dump into gold/silver at these prices.
some charts:
http://www.thelastcanary.blogspot.com
frankly, the gold and silver "bearish reversals" occurred during NY Comex trading hours. Hardly something to panic about as these are the hours the JPM chart painters work their little magic charms.
good luck to all. i know i'm hardly going to run over to my safe deposit box and sell any of my silver cache. Nope. I'm going to sit tight, and .... as JPM fires its last futile volleys, i'll be buying...
and thanking them mightily for arranging this sell off ...which gave me some stunning profits from the rally to put back to work for the next ride up.
thanks jamie. thanks for reloading the guns that are shooting you.
I like how some EW tard always comes out with a chart saying we are doing wave 5. It is always wave 5. Never 1. Never 2. It is always 5 with a crash coming immediately. And every down day is a bearish reversal. Forget that we just invalidated a H&S in gold that was supposed to be the top. Now we have an honest to god down day! And after three updays? Well dam. You know that is serious to have a down day after 3 up days.
No. You know what matters? Pull up a weekly chart of silver and draw a line across all the tops for the last 5 years. Silver went to totally out of band last night to the upside. Meaning there is no technical roof on silver anymore. This formation has already taken root and sprouted in a big way in silver in Euros and Pounds in the past weeks. PMs had to be hit or JPM would have had Hell to pay today instead maybe a couple days from now. Silver is no where near done.
The conundrum with Elliot wave is not knowing if the overall trend will change at the conclusion of wave 5, or continue. Prechter believes since stocks have made 5 waves up over the past hundred years, they must come down.
However, the waves are a fractal. Sometimes wave 5 extends for multiples of the first two and shows what look like other five wave sequences within it. Moral of the story is classic daytrading techniques are not obsolete, and no one knows the future, not even the BLACKHAWK.
This current wave 5 could technically end tomorrow because it has exceeded wave 3. However, we could just trade in a range for 6 months as the ABC12 unfolds. Note that we are only on wave 3 in a higher order sense - since the bottom of 09 we could get three five wave sequences back up or only two (we're on our second series now). This would depend on if the overall up trend has changed or not. I'm betting it doesn't, and we get a hyperinflationary blowoff until the dollar is scrapped for good.
-Elliot wave hobbyist
Somebody might understand what you just said. I do not.
Very few traders understand Elliot wave, apparently. It is very powerful when correctly applied, but like any forecasting method, the proof is in the result$
"Hurting for a squirting". That reminds me... :)
Virtually every one of the Fast Money guys were screeching "market top" and "key reversal" today. As of the close, they were all 100% short.
Congrats on having enough spare time to waste watching those CNBC assholes.
Even if you HAD the time, why would you watch those CNBS assholes??
Chris Matthews comes to mind
You have a right to whatever opinion you have of Chris Matthews, but he doesn't whore stocks like some Italian chicks do. Having extreme political viewpoints and selling your soul for the rich to bilk the poor are on different planes of sickness.
Maria Bart's dad is not an affiliated mafia man and was not involved in the manipulation of DNDN
I'd rather watch two dogs fuck.
I've watched that show. One day they make these big calls on movers then when it doesnt pan out they come back the next day and brush it off as they cut their losses.
Pure cnbs bull shit.
Robo was making the point that they are contrary indicators, and will be obliterated shortly. I see no one junked him because (on the surface) it may have seemed he was making a bearish forecast.......
Whatever happened to the Macke guy? Still talking in tongues? Homeless now?
Macke was the only reason to watch CNBS. After a contract dispute (Macke claimed CNBS had too many guests who had no idea about trading) he hung out at Minyanville for a while but doesn't seem to have posted much lately.
http://fastmoneyreview.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1075
http://www.minyanville.com/library/search.htm?search=1&contrib_id=48
If the CNBC crew is short then we know what that means...
That would be the ultimate buy signal, I think. When have they been right?
How very interesting that equities held up today while gold, silver and oil hit a downdraft. The BLACKHAWK is getting better at targeting its drops!
That's funny, today at the end of the lunch hour episode I heard ALL of them say that they were buying the close.
The biggest bunch of phonies out there.
That's so funny. On the halftime report, at final trade time, 3 said to buy stocks, and the 4th said how the tax compromise was bullish for America so we should buy the dollar. The tone struck me as outrageously unjustified optimism, especially at a time when the Citi Economic Surprise Index, which is usually very coincident to the market, has been sliding like crazy while the market has rallied sharply.
I am getting out my long S&P positions. Not yet decided if need to go short S&P and dollar. We are reaching climax.
How many times have the technicals aligned perfectly and the squid uses this alignment to punch higher. Everything goes up until it goes down.
Yes, but per Nic's point on "all asset classes" that bond action today was gruesome. You have a buyer that has chained himself to the buy button, and still the title wave of selling wipes it all out, anyway.
That is all I needed to see. Reversal, indeed.
Hindenburg Omen
Moron Indicator
Cardinal Climax....without condoms
Silver Mania
You da Top Tick at an Alabama picnic
Never been to Bama' .... You ?
Ain't no Ham like Birmingham
BingHAMton
'bama
Check out the Cycle Projection Oscillator (CPO)
Interesting. Copper went higher today. Why wasn't that sacked like gold & silver?
No no no, that is just the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street hoarding as they prepare to open yet another useless ETF, this time on copper, so that they can arbitrage the stupid buyers of that new ETF.
BTW...ETFs are probably going to figure a lot in the headlines in the brave new world of 2011. Fun fun fun.
www.zerohedge.com/.../jpm-corners-copper-market-lme-says-not-worry-all- good
New ETF in the works that takes possession of the asset. Will be the catalyst of it's own price inflation.
New ETF in the works that takes possession of the asset. Will be the catalyst of it's own price inflation.
ya. definate POMO fail here. Between the news from the Teleprompter in Chief and the 7-9 Billion POMO, a flat close is a bearish sign. And they are only doing 2 Billion tommorrow.
I'm confused. My chicken entrails are consistent with this prognostication, but my coffee grounds and horoscope diverge.
Tsk, tsk. You forgot to roll dem bones...
I -ching it
Backed Up - severely.
Try prune juice, should get ya squirting.
One bearish candlestick - whoopi!. This guy must be smoking the crack pipe? Either that or this must be his first day on the job!. Absurd and ridiculous and dangerous analysis, this is about as good advice as a crack whore will give you about he market.
wow, touched a nerve.. But, I'm sure you're right, I'm sure it means absolutely nothing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSjK2Oqrgic
Nic's comments are ALWAYS worth reading newbie.
I would try CNBS to get your fill.
Squirters! bitchez
Nic's been squirting for 200 SPX points
If I had a dime for every time Nic had a chart that worked I'd have nothing. Everyone is short. It's too obvious. Too funny to watch you guys say on one side of your mouths "it's a rigged game" then turn around and point to a chart as if the markets are free.
Ya all the hoopla around gold/silver " On like Donkey Kong ".
But the first pullback its crimex/jpm/blythe masters ...... But no talk about the mountain of paper they all trade upon (derivatives), all the charts, Lol'.
I've read some whoppers lately, but this takes the cake.
That IS a good one! So far as I know,
nobody is short anymore. My only
question is where do the PDs hide
the equities. Must be some offshore
dark pool somewhere that's fed
guaranteed.
World's most inefficent market? Coins
Still buying silver....
You might have bot mine
Nope, that was me. I bought during Globex's lunch break. Looks pretty good already.
Guys, guys! How could everyone have missed this??
I think what spooked everyone is that the NASDAQ is now within a hair's breadth of the 2007 peak!
Which changes the whole damn investment thesis that most have had since the bottom in March 09: That the crash priced in Armageddon and the market with the generous help of the Fed and Washington was repricing assets with Armageddon taken off the table.
Now that we've reached the 2007 peak that whole Armageddon trade is over. And so now what?? That's the question. Even if you believe that exceeding the peak is justified (which most people privately acknowledge that it sure as heck is not) now the market needs to act like it would during normal economic expansions (which this is certainly not) and discount future growth and risk.
I think the breathless run from the bottom has reached a top in the 'convenient untruth trade'. From here it will get harder to find good reasons to be wildly bullish. And if the market continues its wild ways, I think many smart traders see this as the clearest evidence of a bubble in the making.
Just sayin'
You might enjoy this chart but notice today's volume
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27867588825&a=216241476&listNum=4
Not sure about your point here, but big time SPX and DOW divergence from NASDAQ is another sign disturbing investors. Just like it happened in other bubbles we've known and loved. Usually a sign of frothy bubbliciousness
The point is this chart shows about 9 reasons there was a top today affirming your point.
A bubble in the making? What have the last 2 fukking years been?
Just buy the Ben dip, damblit!
Hehe. Agree, but I'm putting on Wall Street rose color glasses. In Street Speak, it's one thing to reprice after a collapse. It's another to push higher. The market recouped the entire 1987 crash within about a year. Keep in mind that was all about a single day. After that the market went timid and sideways with 2 mini-crashes in between until it finally hit the 1990 recession and went lower. Old habits die hard. The market will need a whole new thesis to go forward from here with any sort of conviction. Not saying it will crash just based on this. But new money will hesitate
another point, speaking of divergences: the nasdaq peaked at 5000 in 2000, making the nominal highs in other indices in 2007 unconfirmed and, arguably, bear market rallies. the action in gold since 2000 offers additional support of the thesis.
In simplicity there is truth. Or, inflation, maybe? (sans core, of course)...
2007 peak was 4,700. We're at 3,966. Since when does 19% equal a "hair's breadth"?
God damnit, never mind. I see the wrong of my ways.
Me = teh suck.
To find out more about the Imminent Collapse of the Global Economy, watch this video "Get the NEW SCREW BRICK for 5 Easy Payments of $19.99 !! (30-day free trial)" at (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzSSyGE95kw).
by Anonymous
So ridiculously funny, you can’t even make this sh$t up!! Awesome video!
I guess they have not been able to stem the flow of meth into Arizona yet .....
LOL you couldn't even keep a straight face at the end classic!
What's your take on all of this Chris? Bond Vigilantes gone wild should be your next one!
Jesus Susan li is wearing this little red riding hood dress.............
How can the market wolfs make rational decisions when exposed to such colour.
Shes talking Gold next - I love it when she talks dirty.
This was posted by Nic on 10/20/10
Well it means if 0.9850 on AUDUSD and 1,175 in S&P future are not bypassed there is a distinct chance we accelerate to the downside, and if that is the case the market will go bypass 1,129 and dip much lower from here. Full disclosure long term I am VERY bearish, the key is to find the timing when Keneysian policies breakdown.
The market had fallen 19 points the previous session, rallied 12 that day, and didnt fall below 1170 since then. I am not saying it cant of course.
But as far as I could see -hard to search articles with dates at ZH, sorry if I am mistaken- Nic changed the subject, currencies others things etc, and now posting on a similar note.
These bearish and bold comments are more dangerous than Bernank.
A better one:“There have been plenty of great reasons to short things this year, but zero interest rates trump all that,” said hedge fund manager Bill Fleckenstein.
All I know is that I am kicking myself for selling my Oz dollars...bought in when they were .63 :(
Survey says rates ain't gonna stay at zero unless gold gos to Mars..
Can't have your cake and steal mine too Ben.
Stagflation says rates ain't gonna stay at zero and gold gos(sic) to Mars.
Okay, so based upon the discussion here, it is pretty clear to me that my silver is going to either go up or down tomorrow.... Well, I'm in for the long haul, so I will just rest easy and enjoy the violent ups and downs of the ride, knowing full well that silver will be hitting $100 before I sell...
Pep Talk:
This reminds me of the time way back when I bought my first silver bar for $700 when nobody even knew what gold or silver were. The next couple weeks the price dumped 20% to $5 something an ounce. I thought it was the end of the world. But I didn't quit. Kept buying every 3 months for 9 years and I put all my Roth and rollover 401k money into mining companies. Did pretty damb good. Tonight I switched 25k into the Sprott Silver Fund and kept the rest with the junior miners and won't lose a single night's sleep over it. Oh... And that old silver bar...Well. It's still alive. It got married and had kids. And they and kids. And their kids intermarried with gold. And those kids made palladium friends and invited his sisters platinum to live here. Now I have a great family of wonderful metals and you all can too if you just grow a pair. Now come on guys lift up your skirts! Silver's not going to break $100 over night. It's going to take a few more years. The JP Morgue wants to buy your silver from you. Don't give them the satisfation!
Wow, you really are enjoying that silver-plated inflatable lifemate too, huh?
Heh, better that than a papier mache hyperinflated one full of empty promises.
Nic L - I get that the close was ugly and can see the gold pattern, but am puzzled by your bearish hammer comments. On a US session basis, the candle pattern is a medium to large one and green on the QQQQs (but solid) and red on the NASDAQ 100 (but we are talking less than one point difference between the two numbers). It seems like these hammers are more an artifact of the 24 hour data where yes yesterday's close = today's open is very close to today's close rather than a run up and down during one session. Please help me understand......Thanks
Small sell off then up to 1241/1254 by the 1st or middle Feb. BoooooooYaaaaa! to Yaaaaaaaaa!
I'm gonna have to agree on a technical basis with Nic almost 100% Looked like the exhaustion spike from hell today all over..
I kept thinking...I wonder how many people who got in here last time and waited it all out like a good buy and holder, were just waiting for THIS day. The day when they were made whole and got the fuck out.
Unfortunately, this says nothing about what tomorrow may bring, though the Bond Police don't seem to relent until the have won.
I can smell the uncertain VIX in the air though. Until I looked at the bond action I figure there was a Chinese rate hike rumor I didn't hear about or something like that. Today seemed like a parachute escape from a burning B-17 full of hedge funds.
This one is for you Blythe...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4FSI5ut6a0
Too much retail money in bond funds is bad for the mountain of interest rates derivatives, need to get them out and into stocks and commodities where the puppeteers can whip the money out of the sheeple. For this, bonds must fall (or at least fall enough to frighten the sheeple) and stocks and gold must go lower to attract sheeple to come in, non? I heard a large group of hedgies in Bang cock hangout, excitedly discussing which cars to buy, already detailing returns and carried interest for next year, expecting further melt-up in stocks and gold. They are my favorite contrarian indicators :)
So...chase the retards around in a circle for a while, then yell 'I WIN!'...thats the markets of today?
Gold
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/12/gold_07.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts
If the market is rigged then reading chicken entrails works just as well as charts.
I think part of the rigging has to do with painting the tape and creating technical buy signals when needed. To this effect, sometimes reading the bones still works, as computers love technicals.
The 61.8% of the S&P (on closing and intra-day basis) is at 1228. We have broken it on an intra-day basis today, but not on a closing basis yet. Tomorrow has the possibility of a big selloff, but that doesn't change the big picture yet.
It will probably be enough to scare the Republicrats into voting for the tax/unemployment bill though unfortunately.
Bigger picture, most of these asset classes (gold, especially) are in a 2 year bearish wedge pattern formation. Look at FTSE100 (UKX) also.
In some markets, the pattern would be invalidated if yesterday's highs are exceeded.
So broadly I expect to see a couple of down days, the short-term highs are in. But I don't think this is "the big one". The pattern does not end until 1Q of 2011.
All asset classes are richly overpriced. O'Bummers new morphine
drip stimulus (if enacted) might
maintain status quo for a while, but it's nothing to get bullish about
given that prices already reflect rainbows and lollipops. The only
interesting thing for 2011 is whether
the street can stick their equities to retail lemmings. I rather doubt
it.
I hear that 'water sports,' including transgender squirting, is quite popular at SAC Capital, if media reports of lawsuits are to be believed.
I wouldn't be 100% suprised that The Bernank is the type of individual that enjoys a good squirting every so often, also - paint the town yellow with the Bearded Clam.
Nic's sounding like a scratched record again,predicting tops that aren't tops,if you look closer at the daily NQ chart there are two hammers preceding the dreaded inverted hammer,which in my limited experience is more often than not a CONTINUATION pattern i.e the market is still going up!
I know TBT and gold and silver coincided yesterday with the poor close,but to me,it is merely another "buy the fucking dip" to quote the recent cartoon.Brian Sack will just be a bit busier today ensuring a green close.
I found this edition of Nic's Chart Porn very informative. He knows how to read the tea leaves.
Now, do I trade my options account only on a single technician's take?
No.
But I find Nic's Chart readings interesting. As every Zedge reader knows, eventually there will be tons of cash to be made buying puts on US equities. Perhaps this analysis provides a clue as to when the trend changes.