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The Market Is Now Parabolic Ahead Of Debt Ceiling Deliberations

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Too bad the Fed's PR person can not disclose just how effective it has been in orchestrating a virtually straight line move in the market over the past two weeks. Zero Hedge sympathizes, and as debt ceiling deliberations are coming up, the Fed needs every favorable media mention of the deadly precision it has exhibited in enhancing consumer confidence, raising 401(k) book profits, and singlehandedly allowing corporate insider selling to outpace buying by a factor of well over 30x. After all with the dollar's value soon hitting zero, the Chairman is doing the middle class a favor by transferring its funds out of its pocket into that of multi-millionaires: call is dress rehearsal for the barter system.

 

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Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:33 | 71089 D.O.D.
D.O.D.'s picture

I dunno, at this rate, I'm even starting to belive everything is fine, last year was a fluke and it's been fixed, other than lagging unemployment, which should only be a problem for a time, there is really no reason NOT to take on more debt.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:42 | 71111 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I'm starting to agree with you. More problems down the road for sure, but before the next bubble bursts may be 5-10 years down the road.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:56 | 71143 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Ah, agree with the sentiment.  Maybe they indeed WILL get this thing to work.  Maybe the shorts really are gonna get killed if they don't exit, because this thing is on a rocket shot to Saturn.

Until that sentiment grows some real legs (and I think it is) there will be NO CAPITULATION of the upside.  Until it becomes truly contrarian (vs. today's conventional wisdom) that the market is overvalued, there will be no correction, at least not one of merit.  Until the bears absolutely refuse to short the dip, there will be no real dip.

IMHO, that's why we're seeing this steady, unspectacular rise in the markets, no more of the 2-3% daily jumpers in the S&P.  TPTB know how effective the drip drip drip of Chinese water torture can be at eroding the naysayers' confidence that it is indeed a bearish future.  We must never lose sight the fact that while these people are truly evil, they are also truly brilliant at what they do.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:57 | 71145 Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

My sentiment exactly - very well said.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:14 | 71172 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

I think Ritholz's 'the rally's in the 6th or 7th inning' call yesterday is probably pretty spot on and it jibes well with Rosies call a while back of S&P 1200.  Can you imagine the short bear pain of that?  The horror, as positions that should have been covered in May are left to destroy veteran, 'fundamental' traders' careers and fortunes?  There will be a panic, but it will be the bears trying to salvage what is left of wrecked portfolios.  Before it goes down, there will be a SPECTACULAR ('Tell us the story again, Grandpa Trader') blow off market top for the ages that will leave the fundamentalist bears bleeding out their eyes and asses.  Only then will the market descend in even more spectacular fashion to its real low.  When?  Who knows, but I can only presume we do not actually hit new all-time highs, though it could be close.

BTW, the only 'fundamentals' worth considering are figuring what the Washington/Wall Street complex will do next.  It's usually best in those circumstances to use a thief to catch a thief.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:22 | 71180 Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

That's a reasonable scenario.  I think real fundamentals are worth knowing, but they're being obscured by some very well aimed stimulus money and some great marketing of data interpretation - notice how economic data is annualized from last month's report, never shown on a year-over-year basis. 

 

Ultimately, there is no way of knowing what Washington/Wall Street will do next, so that's keeping me on the sidelines.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:42 | 71205 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

"I think real fundamentals are worth knowing . . ."

Normally, I could not agree more.  Unfortunately, now is a time (and into some point in the future) where knowing the fundamentals is causing unparalleled pain and proves knowledge can be a dangerous thing (to your money). At this point, I imagine Tila Tequila's trading book would look better than Peter Schiff's. 

 

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:53 | 71221 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

Damnit, I was just about to agree with you until you just had to bring Tila Tequila into this. And fundamentals,while irrelevant in the stock markets, do still carry weight in the currency and fixed income marets...keeping in mind that the Fed is part of those fundies.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:08 | 71247 Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

I don't disagree with you exactly, but the fundamentals may provide us with a heads up before the shit hits the fan.  Undoubtedly, the financial elite are in complete control, but a bad quarter by UPS, or credit card write-offs of 18%, or something else fundamental may counter the games being played.  Basically, my point is that I agree with you, but this ain't a time to get comfortable with anything you may have figured out about the current situation.  Once you set the ball in motion, it can bounce anywhere!

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:43 | 71389 Oso
Oso's picture

I capitulated today - hit max pain.  I cant fight this fight anymore.  I need to sit on the sidelines for a bit.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 21:33 | 71875 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"Ah, agree with the sentiment. Maybe they indeed WILL get this thing to work. Maybe the shorts really are gonna get killed if they don't exit, because this thing is on a rocket shot to Saturn."

Yeah well... if it over shoots Saturn the next planet in line is "Uranus."

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:36 | 71093 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Breathtaking in it's assent and velocity. The ride down, when it comes, will be even quicker. It appears that everyone has their finger on the sell button. The longer the manipulation goes on, the quicker the finger will be based upon the high volume on down days.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:40 | 71104 blackebitda
blackebitda's picture

i wonder if the insider selling cash gets recycled and now becomes ammo for new buying? 

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:43 | 71113 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Are you a complete fucking moron?  The phrase is 'buy low, sell high'. 

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:03 | 71150 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

"Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling. But after the initial transaction, don't make a second unless the first shows you a profit. Wait and watch." Jesse Livermore

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:17 | 71177 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Thank you and point taken, but didn't Jesse go broke and kill himself?

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:37 | 71378 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

He lost several fortunes - at least one worth $3mm on a cotton trade gone bad (primarily due to government intervention and manipulation of the market).

He also suffered from clinical depression most of his life. Killing himself was probably the result of the loss of confidence he felt as markets changed after the Depression.

His advice to Congress on how to regulate and enforce rules was ignored because of his poor reputation (as the "Boy Plunger" LOL) amongst his peers. They all recognized his knowledge and skill, but felt he was a destroyer of markets, not an enabler.

But as Livermore himself pointed out, he made as much money on stocks rising as he did on stocks falling. It's just that when stocks fall, people look for scapegoats, and shorters are the usual (and improper) scapegoats.

Livermore points out shorts represent the "floor" of the market and are the investors who step up to create the next bull market after a crash. Most crashes, prior to 1929, were short lived affairs from an economic standpoint. Few people were involved in the market, thus the impact was minimal most of the time.

1929 seemed to represent (but didn't) a break from that form. By then, the market was a widely recognized tool and measuring stick. It wasn't uncommon for the average man to be involved from time to time - or at least talk about the market. This was quite a change from the pre 1920 market.

Livermore was concerned about these people, recognizing that it was possible to take advantage of them easily - something that was often done. He felt this was unfair and did not constitute a real market, but just outright manipulation (something he thought was OK if it was occurring among the wealthy, but unjust if someone with small means was a loser - this didn't prevent him from manipulating some stocks and taking money from poor people, of course...he felt they just shouldn't be involved in what they didn't understand. Or that protections should at least be in place for them.)

The protections he suggested were well thought out, but ignored. I don't have the details, I'm merely repeating what I've read about them. It seems to me, in light of our current laws, this is probably true.

That said, the fact he lost fortunes, and killed himself, have little impact on the fact he was a genius and represents one of the greatest minds on Wall Street, perhaps of all time.
JP Morgan - great businessman. Livermore - great trader.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 18:46 | 71730 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

"Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" is a fantastic book.

Livermore did kill himself, but only after he'd been a millionaire for a long time (after becoming a millionaire, going broke, becoming a millionaire again, going broke again, and then finally becoming a millionaire again  ...  all this in the early 20th century, when being a millionaire was rare indeed).

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:04 | 71151 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Something tells me that stock prices are super high to ward off takeovers. Since it's all over the board though It could just be to ward off foreign takeovers.

Oh intel is going to sell 2 million chips by christmas!! I'm buying 10 just cause these modern electronics break so easy. LOL

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:33 | 71286 wallstreetwino
wallstreetwino's picture

Agreed - propping up the market is now a matter of national defense!

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:51 | 71301 flaxpin
flaxpin's picture

Since the rally has been at the expense of the dollar, the purchasing power of the foreigners would be roughly equal i think.  The S&P has gone up, but since dollar went down, a foreigner's euros would roughly purchase same amount.  So it'd be an ineffective way of warding off takeovers.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:09 | 71321 ratava
ratava's picture

Talking from a foreigner point of view, the approach still works. Why would I buy stocks now if i know I will be able to get them later on for cheaper dollar. Unless dollar index and US equity stop being inversely correlated, getting in now is the same as getting in later.

Thu, 09/17/2009 - 19:05 | 72865 blackebitda
blackebitda's picture

or buy high and sell higher

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:36 | 71095 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Tyler:

Can you provide us with a current Taylor Rule chart?

TIA

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:37 | 71098 blackebitda
blackebitda's picture

one hears the same thing over and over and one is bound to believe it. the mind is difficult to discipline for most. propaganda is having its effect on you. focus on what you see, not what you hear.  

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:39 | 71101 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Huh?  Will you repeat that again, sonny? :)

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:41 | 71107 blackebitda
blackebitda's picture

it was a reply to the first post 71089

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:45 | 71119 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Trouble with sarcasm along with trading wisdom?  The Yahoo boards beckon you.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:13 | 71169 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

Mr. A - I think slope and evil beckon you - since when was zero a trading board

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:25 | 71182 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Since its inception, that's why traders read it when they won't touch the other weinie boards managed by people who never worked The Street.  What makes ZH different is the message concurrent with the trading insight, one laden with a spirit of actual 'right and wrong' and out to get those wrecking the free enterprise system.  It's this wonderful brew that makes the Hedge the best read on the web.  IMO. 

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 19:22 | 71771 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

Ummm  ...  No.  Has never been, probably will never be.  You're missing the point entirely.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:39 | 71103 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:45 | 71210 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Don't forget MGM. One of their most active traders is D.E. Shaw,the hedge fund that formerly employed Larry Summers.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:43 | 71112 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:05 | 71153 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Those really are some Big Charts.  Thank you.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:09 | 71248 George the baby...
George the baby crusher's picture

Huge potential.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:53 | 71304 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Busting out all over the place.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:37 | 71377 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

They're trying to Get It Up because of the Huge sell off. It's the equal/opposite reaction thing. Think "Duality".

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 15:16 | 71441 George the baby...
George the baby crusher's picture

My computer just got a huge hard disc.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:44 | 71114 . . .
. . .'s picture

If Congress stalls on raising the debt ceiling, Summers/Geithner will take evasion maneuvers, like prior administrations, such as rotating government employees 401(k) and pension money from treasuries to cash, paying interest with IOUs, etc.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125270970074004941.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

It is beautiful that Summers/Geithner bitch about other people bending the rules (e.g., UBS), but no one else is allowed to complain about THEM bending the rules (e.g., mis-using the exchange stabilization fund to bail out Citi and co for bank loans to Mexico back when they worked for Clinton).

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:11 | 71252 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

How much is the total of federal government pension and 401k?

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:45 | 71120 Sardonicus
Sardonicus's picture

Thanks for the taters robo

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:46 | 71123 Pizza Delivery Man
Pizza Delivery Man's picture

Tyler -

From one of your earlier posts today...

"The only fundamental that supports a weak US dollar is the deficit, but yet again the UK is following the quantitative easing path, Japan and Europe are stimulating their economies at the taxpayer's expense, with Japan having no real lesson to give when it comes to nationalizing private debt and consumption (their main policy in the early 90s), and China is running pretty much on stimulus with debt to GDP ratios hardly available for their economy as they are lost in the statistical smoke and mirror show orchestrated in Beijing and a massive over capacity problem ...The only way the USD will keep falling much further is on an attack on the greenback, which is in nobody's interest, even those who think a global currency is the way of the future (more on that in a later discussion)."

To now -

"After all with the dollar's value soon hitting zero"

confused

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:48 | 71131 . . .
. . .'s picture

You are quoting ICAP versus a flippant comment by Tyler.  Neither of which may represent Tyler's views on the dollar.

 

But if you want flippant, a dollar is a perpetual, interest-free loan to the US government backed by law of fiat.  What's that worth?

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:51 | 71134 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I just have this to say "FUCK YOU DEFLATIONISTS"

Listening to you over the year has caused me to be as frustrated as I've never been before. I've been trying to look for short entries and been wrong always. While it's not directly your fault, it's very disingenuous of you to blame the TV talking heads, if I listened to them I'd be more correct in my trading outlook.

so once again fuck you!

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:08 | 71160 Pizza Delivery Man
Pizza Delivery Man's picture

What about disinflationists?

Any problem with us?

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:03 | 71240 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

No, I'm quiet fond of Donald Coxe. I'd say he was all over disinflation as far as I recall.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:52 | 71136 Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

This is systematic short covering.  There doesn't appear to be any new money entering the markets, but there are enough of us who have been dumb enough to take short positions, especially with all the talk about how bad September normally is.  Once short sellers capitulate and stop adding to positions, this thing dies a natural death - and goes lower than March because without short sellers, there is no natural buyer when things get "low enough".

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:56 | 71142 shortsail03@yahoo.com (not verified)
shortsail03@yahoo.com's picture

When the futures mkt gets gunned everyday with fiat money--there doesn't need to be any shorts. they can keep this game going to dow 15k. what do they have to lose? 

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:57 | 71146 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Their lives.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:00 | 71149 Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

That's not exactly true - if it were, we'd be seeing growing positions on someone's balance sheet.  Instead, they're using fiat money to drive short sellers out, selling as the shorts cover.  It's the reason why each day we get wave patterns - the same patterns each day.  They end the day net neutral, with a direct transfer of wealth from shorts to longs.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:10 | 71166 JohnKing
JohnKing's picture

I think they are clearing all the phantom shares that accumulated in the naked shorting days leading up to the "collapse". Not so sure how deep that well is.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:22 | 71269 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

DANG! A brilliant connection. Wish I had thought of that.
Sounds right and I think the well is deep, but does anyone have any data?

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:28 | 71278 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Now that makes a lot of sense. Anybody thinks so too?

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:53 | 71137 Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

All this and the Semiconductor index isn't even positive,  .....YET....

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:56 | 71141 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

So, the BKX up 3.70% as it is announced that the Fed is reviewing the largest regional banks exposure to CRE (seriously, they are just getting around to doing this now?).  Proving that timing really is everything......

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:06 | 71157 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

Here comes the Fed bailout money for Bank CRE, after the forensics are done.  Paging Mr. Dover.  Ben Dover.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:09 | 71162 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

exactly.

hence the strong rally in regionals. 

because there are NO coincidences.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:58 | 71147 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

The bear (killing) season is in full swing. SRS is now trading < $10, and you've got to believe HAL's current algorithms will drive FAZ to < $20. 

Remember one thing: These guys will NEVER admit they are wrong, and are sending our economy to hell in the process.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:05 | 71154 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

In the future (about February) all investors will be millionaires. And paupers.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:06 | 71156 thegreatsatan
thegreatsatan's picture

this whole fucking thing makes me feel like puking all day long. there is absolutley zero fucking reason for this market to go up, yet day after day I see my old porfolio moving towards recovery of nearly everythign I lost in 2008.  Since I pulled out on Sep 2, i've lost 7% of "magic" gains since this current run-up.

 

 

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:08 | 71161 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Dude you currency is being systematically devalued that's why it's going up.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:12 | 71168 JohnKing
JohnKing's picture

Inflations effect on equities, takes more dollars to buy the junkers.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:10 | 71167 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

checkout long-term US treasuries (TLT) - going up even as market goes parabolic. Something has to give.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:18 | 71175 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Treasuries won't give while the banks can borrow at zero and park the money in 10 year for 3.4%. Either that or the Chinese fail to turn up for auctions.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:16 | 71176 buzzkillington
buzzkillington's picture

I was just thinking the same thing.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:20 | 71178 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Yeap the problems are stored up for the exit. How do you end this mess. The minute the Fed moves rates up, the market will price the entire move up. Now that's when the problems start.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:13 | 71170 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I think this rally will continue until all of the commentors on ZH finally say "the hell with it" and go long. It will take a hell of a rally before the people who are currently most bearish (i.e. sane and rational) will finally capitulate and go long quality companies like C, BAC, WFC and SPG.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:15 | 71174 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The wealth of a nation is determined by the amount of debt it has. I think the very idea of a debt ceiling was made up by idiotic republicans.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:23 | 71181 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Wow... I don't think I've ever seen as much disconnect between fundamental reality and market values in equities... ever.

The Internet bubble is the closest parallel, and we all know how well that turned out.

But this can certainly continue... and I would assume it will.

Until it doesn't.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:31 | 71187 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

But those values are priced in dollars and they are depreciating, hence it goes up. Look at gold, or copper, or even nat gas in the last few days, generally anything priced in dollars.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:37 | 71197 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

A good point.  Couple this with the Germans doing a bond sale denominated in dollars and the implicit takeaway is that the dollar is gonna get shivved.

S&P trading range: 1200-12,000.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:43 | 71208 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Yeap the dollar is the new world funding currency like the Yen carry. You can now only make a judgement about the S&P 500 levels once you have made a judgment of where the US dollar will be. As you said if the EURUSD is going to 1.60 and above then 1200 is perfectly plausible.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:19 | 71339 ratava
ratava's picture

Worst thing is EU has no way of fighting back. They do not need QE per se, but how else do you want to protect your currency against the dollar dumping. 

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:31 | 71189 orca
orca's picture

Some perspective from the European brothers, also trying to hang on for dear life.

My strategy at the moment is shorting the fut within a long call - short call band,

and waiting for this monster to come crashing down in order to write puts and close

the short call. I have tried everything else to no avail. what we're witnessing is beyond

stupid but we have to deal with it. Absolutely f**king toxic environment.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:34 | 71192 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Actually the really bizarre part about this is why are european markets rising. They follow the Dow up, but if the Dow is going up because of dollar weakness then they are rising for no real reason.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:50 | 71214 orca
orca's picture

Some perspective, probably not known at your side.

GS is primary market maker here on every derivative except

monthly options. They own the market, as you can see every day,

lending in DC and carrying the Europeans, also by

trying to create feedback loops with the fut and

European futures. Bizarre environment.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:50 | 71216 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

+1.  Caveat: all fiat is being debased, so that logic isn't perfect.  And my presumption is that, given discord within the Union, the Euro, as currently configured, has less than 36 months to live.  Some number of countries will abandon the Euro for their own currencies due to poltical/economic exigencies.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:00 | 71236 orca
orca's picture

Possible but I doubt it. Imho the FED is actually trying to demolish their own currency, not merely debase it, whereas the ECB (which is a proper CB, not some superbank owned by Wall Street) tries to steer some course resembling normalcy in these times, especially versus the USD. Again, the EUR has enough problems of its own (East- and South- Europe for example), I am not blind to the problems, but they are trying to fix those problems (or at least arrest them) in a "normal" manner.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:30 | 71280 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Been hitting the crackpipe in that old Brussels back alley with Miseur Trichet? ECB's balance sheet is bigger than the Fed's. ECB has been buying "assets" from Spanish banks that would make even the NY boyz blush.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:39 | 71382 orca
orca's picture

First of all Mr. Trichet is French, not Belgian, and altough I am living in Belgium I do not hold Belgian nationality. You are confusing the EU with the ECB.
Secondly, the ECB is located in Frankfurt, Germany, and so is Trichet.
Thirdly, balance sheet comparisons should be made with regard to variables such as population, and the EU has some 550M people and the USA some 330M (I think).
I am not building a defense for the ECB here, just sharing what we in the EU think the Treasury/FED are doing to your currency and how it affects other countries.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:42 | 71293 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Why would the FED try to "demolish" their own currency and end their wealth and source of power? Makes no sense to me...

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:31 | 71362 orca
orca's picture

True, my formulation was off. What I mean is that the FED/Treasury is actively trying to devalue the USD versus other currencies. That at least is the impression we are getting here, and altough Geithner talks the talk he just refuses to walk the walk. June 1st, with EUR/USD at 1,42, Geither gave his famous "strong and safe dollar" speech in Bejing and was laughed out of the auditorium. Rate briefly dipped to 1,38 mid-June, but now is at 1,47. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:35 | 71370 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Well, they have no intention of 'destroying' the currency, only of devaluing it.  You see, while the individual value is diminished via dilution, the total value remains the same, the sum total fighting for global market share.  Since the Fed owns the currency, printing for the Fed is free, but it is still no free lunch.  The lunch will be paid for by the People via compound interest.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 17:46 | 71650 Primal Reversion
Primal Reversion's picture

What makes you think a country's wealth comes from its currency? Destroying the nation's currency simply transfers more wealth into the pockets of those who orchestrated the failure. We're all just a bunch of pawns in the master "reset" game being played out every day.

"Everyone has a price. What's yours?"

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:33 | 71191 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Even using the earnings projections 41 (as reported) or 65 (operating) - the S&P is valued somewhere in the 800-900 area. we are now in solid 18-28% overvalued mode. Bernanke is blowing bubble after bubble and ignoring them on the way up; bailing out on the way down. This one wont take as long as the previous ones to pop. We will not have to wait for 5 years. It will burst within months just like the commodity bubble last year. Consequences be damned. Bernanke is God. He is the saviour so do not question him.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:20 | 71267 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Put $75 of operating earnings for 2010 and how does it look?

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:34 | 71193 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

To play devil's advocate here- isn't the very idea of shorting also part of the systemic problems that are so decried on this site?

People on here are bang on about the complete disarray in financial markets these days, but I can't help but get the feeling that it is more related to frustrations over short killing than anything else.

But just betting on the line going down as much as up is, you got it, financial speculation. How is this any different than the nonsense on the other side? It's part in parcel of a worldview that sees financial markets as nothing else than an arena for short-term gain.

If you are seriously disgusted with the current mess in financial markets: stop shorting! Stop playing the game. Stop treating the markets like a casino. Be angry that the system is destructive, not that it isn't putting your shorts in the money.

If there is any hope of a re-alignment of financial markets with the actual productive economy in the near future, it will mean people have to act like genuine investors again. Analyze the companies, pressure the management, take some fucking responsibility as an owner.

These markets are a trader's dream, but society's nightmare.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:58 | 71227 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

"If there is any hope of a re-alignment of financial markets with the actual productive economy in the near future, it will mean people have to act like genuine investors again. Analyze the companies, pressure the management, take some fucking responsibility as an owner."

Exactly where does being short preclude me from analyzing a company's health?  The problem is not inherent to being either short or long, it is the manipulation to create false outcomes and insider trading.  It is shackling the 'free market' to a command economy managed from Wall Street via Washington for the purpose of enriching the oligarchs while maintaining the minion-politicians to defend the extant status quo.

Listen, I may not like the vulture carrion's look, but it does serve a purpose.

But if you want to change things for the better and ensure investing serves its purpose of price discovery and capital allocation, put a 90% tax on any trade with a less than one-hour duration.  Reality would come roaring back in a hurry, along with the other 'benefits' of a free market.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:29 | 71360 pinkboxtrader
pinkboxtrader's picture

Unfortunately when SPX gains come with correlated depreciation of the USD and even greater costs of international commodities -- saving cash is playing the game. I don't care what other people do with their dollars if their choices are not eroding the money I have earned and not chosen to put at risk.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:36 | 71373 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Profoundly said.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 16:08 | 71515 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

De valued.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:34 | 71194 waterdog
waterdog's picture

This debt request by Geithner is not to give him permission to do what he and Bernanke are about to do. This request is a warning to Congress that he and Bernanke are going to do something and, they had better increase the debt ceiling significantly now instead of in November.

The big question here is, will Geithner tell Congress the truth about why they will need to increase the limit?

Given Geithner's inability to be on the same page as any other treasury manager, I say the answer is no.

I believe the requested debt is for loans to banks to meet reserve requirements.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:34 | 71195 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Looks like capitulation of shorts to me. Most shorts are now dead and out. What will prop up the market when the indexes correct.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:00 | 71234 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Benny the Bank and the Funny Monies.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:38 | 71196 Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

The real question is who is behind the recent $ slide. Is it the market, the FED or the CHinese?
My bet, it's the FED and in that case it's a sign of capitulation. Credit pump did not work "as expected" and they are running out of tools to combat the deflationary pressure.
Wonder how the next producer prices indicator will look? :)

 

If the weak dollar fails, the next option would be letting the deflation go (ouch, better brace for the impact) and pumping in some more credit a little bit later.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:38 | 71201 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Long US markets, short European markets could get some play. After all if the euro is in rally mode it will crimp US earnings for European companies.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:36 | 71289 Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

it's rather risky idea and might be inefficient unless you use derivatives, which in turn would only increase your risk.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:06 | 71317 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Any risk management scheme involves trying to sluff off the risk on a sucker or trying to pretend your the sucker and get people to sluff off risk on you. The world is waking up to that as the new dynamic in the scheme.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:41 | 71204 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The tell tale sign was when the FDIC rolled over on increasing deposit insurance premiums. Timmy said the banks are too broke to pay up and he has a $200 billion direct infusion line. Your take away, the banks are much worse than disclosed (to the public to avoid bank runs.)

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:53 | 71220 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I cannot seem to remember if I voted for Bernanke and a evaporating dollar. Who is it that he answers to again? Goldman and the other private owners of the Fed? What a goddam country when a couple of private banks decide upon the value of the currency by which 305 million Americans live their lives and attempt to conduct business. What a goddam country when the grandest kinds of failure are rewarded repeatedly, especially now that we are moving on to save the commercial real estate industry. I seem to have forgotten why that is in the interest of the 304.99 million odd Americans who are not commercial real estate speculators. What a goddam country when banks can borrow from me at 0% without my approval, then loan it back to me at 29.9%, all with the blessing of the Secretary of the Treasury. What a goddam country when the person who tells me where my tax money is going fails to pay it himself. What a goddam country.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:31 | 71284 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You sir need an AK 47, or three...

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:05 | 71316 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

LOL, because voting is a scam! They all serve their money masters. Here in Canada, our central bank governor is a ex-GSach employee. So you see, the power runs deep and will not be un-rooted easily. Why do you think it took the US Military to remove Saddam from power? The ppl of Iraq were must more fed up of him than US citizens are of the big banks. They still have a lot of room to move from here to dictatorship, or any other more subtle variation. Prepare to take it progressively bigger up the wazoo.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:58 | 71228 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Never be wedded to your positions. The old tree gets splintered in a hurricane while the young tree bends with the hurricane's winds. My angle has been to play both inflation and deflation at the extremes. While my shorts SRS and others have cost me money, my longs have made me three times what I have lost. Helps to have a strong stomach, know that I could lose it all and not matter, and holds my nose on the longs. Happy trading.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:02 | 71239 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I must admit, that I have given up on explaining what is going on. That means I don't understand it, and I will not participate. My money is in cash and gold.
The latest increases in the American market can be explained by a fall in the dollar, and not by sound fundamentals.
Better informed, richer and more wicked people are in control, and they are destroying everything in sight by greed. Application of the law, allocation of responsibility and no wealth transfer would have seen most of these guys in jail, fired and broke. The fact that this is not the case shows with all necessary clarity, that the banksters are in charge. If you play their game, you deserve what they feed you!
Opt out, chill off, buy gold, relax.!
WOW, that math question almost killed me. HELP!!

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:13 | 71327 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I'd like to see a chart which compares total gold mined-to-date versus total outstanding M2 (in USD). This might provide me with the necessary context to not think that gold might be a bit overpriced.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:50 | 71400 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

There are many more dollar units floating around in the world this year over last, while considerably fewer gold units have been brought to the surface.  How can gold units not have risen more relative to dollar units?

 

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:14 | 71257 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Looking at SDS and SSO looks like a murderer on a lie detector trying to lie his way out of being questioned about a murder he just commited.

Never seen anything like it...

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:30 | 71282 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Agreed. Loading up again today on SDS. This market is going down starting tommorow.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:52 | 71401 Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

LOL.  Nice psyops.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:59 | 71413 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

Little birdie has just said that sCReAMER was on pumping IYR.  I'd say it's time to take DRV out for a test, if I would ever do such a thing.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:27 | 71274 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Gold and cash now. Wait and see until November.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:09 | 71322 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I'd like to see a chart that shows total gold mined-to-date versus total outstanding M2 world currencies (converted into $). That might give me some contextual impetus req'd to buy more gold at the seemingly bubble prices that they are now.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 21:47 | 71886 bilbert
bilbert's picture

And I think it quite likely that in less than 12 months, folks will be slapping their collective foreheads, shouting "DOH!! - why did I not see that $1,000 for an ounce of Gold was a screaming no-brainer!"

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 21:36 | 71877 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"Ah, agree with the sentiment. Maybe they indeed WILL get this thing to work. Maybe the shorts really are gonna get killed if they don't exit, because this thing is on a rocket shot to Saturn."

Yeah well if it over shoots Saturn you know next in line is Uranus...

Fri, 09/18/2009 - 12:26 | 73363 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Listen up everybody:

There is a racket that is running money, pure and simple. Since they were given the biggest supply and have the most insider information by controlling the Government of the United States, they will do whatever they want with the market regardless of reality.

There was a reason why the Bottom of the S&P was 666 just like the twin coincidences of S&P closing price and the New York pick 3 lotto on the 1st anniversary of the September 11th being the numbers 911.

This has all the makings of an occult mafia running the world.

The next occult number of significance in front of the S&P index is 1111.

Do not be surprised at them pulling the rug on this whole bear market rally when the S&P reaches 1111.

Yes, I know it sounds lunatic like and paranoid conspiracy theory 101 but if they are doing it and you see them doing it then that's the only thing that makes sense even if it sounds completely insane.

You can laugh at all I say right now and ignore it only to see it happen and sometimes not even make the connection as it happens.

I have received way too many forecasts of Financial Collapse happening on Oct 25th. The sources are varied and one of them just left Government Sachs in disgust and he's saying October.

So we have to figure out what is the trigger point?

Israel vs Iran war morphing into WW3
Swine Flu related scenario(manufactured or real)
Collapse of the Fed or of the Dollar or the release of damaging secrets?
Natural Disaster?

Now if they figure out that we are on to their game, they will change the date. But if we keep it on the lowdown and they ignore our posts then we will have the proof against them by telling the world what the occult mafia is going to do before they do it.

fUny1.blogspot.com

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