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The Market Is Now Parabolic Ahead Of Debt Ceiling Deliberations

Tyler Durden's picture




Too bad the Fed's PR person can not disclose just how effective it has been in orchestrating a virtually straight line move in the market over the past two weeks. Zero Hedge sympathizes, and as debt ceiling deliberations are coming up, the Fed needs every favorable media mention of the deadly precision it has exhibited in enhancing consumer confidence, raising 401(k) book profits, and singlehandedly allowing corporate insider selling to outpace buying by a factor of well over 30x. After all with the dollar's value soon hitting zero, the Chairman is doing the middle class a favor by transferring its funds out of its pocket into that of multi-millionaires: call is dress rehearsal for the barter system.




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Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:33 | Link to Comment D.O.D.
D.O.D.'s picture

I dunno, at this rate, I'm even starting to belive everything is fine, last year was a fluke and it's been fixed, other than lagging unemployment, which should only be a problem for a time, there is really no reason NOT to take on more debt.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:56 | Link to Comment Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Ah, agree with the sentiment.  Maybe they indeed WILL get this thing to work.  Maybe the shorts really are gonna get killed if they don't exit, because this thing is on a rocket shot to Saturn.

Until that sentiment grows some real legs (and I think it is) there will be NO CAPITULATION of the upside.  Until it becomes truly contrarian (vs. today's conventional wisdom) that the market is overvalued, there will be no correction, at least not one of merit.  Until the bears absolutely refuse to short the dip, there will be no real dip.

IMHO, that's why we're seeing this steady, unspectacular rise in the markets, no more of the 2-3% daily jumpers in the S&P.  TPTB know how effective the drip drip drip of Chinese water torture can be at eroding the naysayers' confidence that it is indeed a bearish future.  We must never lose sight the fact that while these people are truly evil, they are also truly brilliant at what they do.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

My sentiment exactly - very well said.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:14 | Link to Comment Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

I think Ritholz's 'the rally's in the 6th or 7th inning' call yesterday is probably pretty spot on and it jibes well with Rosies call a while back of S&P 1200.  Can you imagine the short bear pain of that?  The horror, as positions that should have been covered in May are left to destroy veteran, 'fundamental' traders' careers and fortunes?  There will be a panic, but it will be the bears trying to salvage what is left of wrecked portfolios.  Before it goes down, there will be a SPECTACULAR ('Tell us the story again, Grandpa Trader') blow off market top for the ages that will leave the fundamentalist bears bleeding out their eyes and asses.  Only then will the market descend in even more spectacular fashion to its real low.  When?  Who knows, but I can only presume we do not actually hit new all-time highs, though it could be close.

BTW, the only 'fundamentals' worth considering are figuring what the Washington/Wall Street complex will do next.  It's usually best in those circumstances to use a thief to catch a thief.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:22 | Link to Comment Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

That's a reasonable scenario.  I think real fundamentals are worth knowing, but they're being obscured by some very well aimed stimulus money and some great marketing of data interpretation - notice how economic data is annualized from last month's report, never shown on a year-over-year basis. 

 

Ultimately, there is no way of knowing what Washington/Wall Street will do next, so that's keeping me on the sidelines.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

"I think real fundamentals are worth knowing . . ."

Normally, I could not agree more.  Unfortunately, now is a time (and into some point in the future) where knowing the fundamentals is causing unparalleled pain and proves knowledge can be a dangerous thing (to your money). At this point, I imagine Tila Tequila's trading book would look better than Peter Schiff's. 

 

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:53 | Link to Comment TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

Damnit, I was just about to agree with you until you just had to bring Tila Tequila into this. And fundamentals,while irrelevant in the stock markets, do still carry weight in the currency and fixed income marets...keeping in mind that the Fed is part of those fundies.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:08 | Link to Comment Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

I don't disagree with you exactly, but the fundamentals may provide us with a heads up before the shit hits the fan.  Undoubtedly, the financial elite are in complete control, but a bad quarter by UPS, or credit card write-offs of 18%, or something else fundamental may counter the games being played.  Basically, my point is that I agree with you, but this ain't a time to get comfortable with anything you may have figured out about the current situation.  Once you set the ball in motion, it can bounce anywhere!

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:43 | Link to Comment Oso
Oso's picture

I capitulated today - hit max pain.  I cant fight this fight anymore.  I need to sit on the sidelines for a bit.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 21:33 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:36 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Breathtaking in it's assent and velocity. The ride down, when it comes, will be even quicker. It appears that everyone has their finger on the sell button. The longer the manipulation goes on, the quicker the finger will be based upon the high volume on down days.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:40 | Link to Comment blackebitda
blackebitda's picture

i wonder if the insider selling cash gets recycled and now becomes ammo for new buying? 

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:43 | Link to Comment Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Are you a complete fucking moron?  The phrase is 'buy low, sell high'. 

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:03 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

"Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling. But after the initial transaction, don't make a second unless the first shows you a profit. Wait and watch." Jesse Livermore

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Thank you and point taken, but didn't Jesse go broke and kill himself?

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:37 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 18:46 | Link to Comment Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

"Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" is a fantastic book.

Livermore did kill himself, but only after he'd been a millionaire for a long time (after becoming a millionaire, going broke, becoming a millionaire again, going broke again, and then finally becoming a millionaire again  ...  all this in the early 20th century, when being a millionaire was rare indeed).

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:04 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Something tells me that stock prices are super high to ward off takeovers. Since it's all over the board though It could just be to ward off foreign takeovers.

Oh intel is going to sell 2 million chips by christmas!! I'm buying 10 just cause these modern electronics break so easy. LOL

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:33 | Link to Comment wallstreetwino
wallstreetwino's picture

Agreed - propping up the market is now a matter of national defense!

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:51 | Link to Comment flaxpin
flaxpin's picture

Since the rally has been at the expense of the dollar, the purchasing power of the foreigners would be roughly equal i think.  The S&P has gone up, but since dollar went down, a foreigner's euros would roughly purchase same amount.  So it'd be an ineffective way of warding off takeovers.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:09 | Link to Comment ratava
ratava's picture

Talking from a foreigner point of view, the approach still works. Why would I buy stocks now if i know I will be able to get them later on for cheaper dollar. Unless dollar index and US equity stop being inversely correlated, getting in now is the same as getting in later.

Thu, 09/17/2009 - 19:05 | Link to Comment blackebitda
blackebitda's picture

or buy high and sell higher

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:36 | Link to Comment Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Tyler:

Can you provide us with a current Taylor Rule chart?

TIA

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:37 | Link to Comment blackebitda
blackebitda's picture

one hears the same thing over and over and one is bound to believe it. the mind is difficult to discipline for most. propaganda is having its effect on you. focus on what you see, not what you hear.  

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Assetman
Assetman's picture

Huh?  Will you repeat that again, sonny? :)

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:41 | Link to Comment blackebitda
blackebitda's picture

it was a reply to the first post 71089

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Trouble with sarcasm along with trading wisdom?  The Yahoo boards beckon you.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:13 | Link to Comment AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

Mr. A - I think slope and evil beckon you - since when was zero a trading board

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:25 | Link to Comment Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Since its inception, that's why traders read it when they won't touch the other weinie boards managed by people who never worked The Street.  What makes ZH different is the message concurrent with the trading insight, one laden with a spirit of actual 'right and wrong' and out to get those wrecking the free enterprise system.  It's this wonderful brew that makes the Hedge the best read on the web.  IMO. 

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

Ummm  ...  No.  Has never been, probably will never be.  You're missing the point entirely.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:39 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:45 | Link to Comment Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Don't forget MGM. One of their most active traders is D.E. Shaw,the hedge fund that formerly employed Larry Summers.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:43 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:05 | Link to Comment SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Those really are some Big Charts.  Thank you.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:09 | Link to Comment George the baby...
George the baby crusher's picture

Huge potential.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Busting out all over the place.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:37 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 15:16 | Link to Comment George the baby...
George the baby crusher's picture

My computer just got a huge hard disc.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:44 | Link to Comment . . .
. . .'s picture

If Congress stalls on raising the debt ceiling, Summers/Geithner will take evasion maneuvers, like prior administrations, such as rotating government employees 401(k) and pension money from treasuries to cash, paying interest with IOUs, etc.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125270970074004941.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

It is beautiful that Summers/Geithner bitch about other people bending the rules (e.g., UBS), but no one else is allowed to complain about THEM bending the rules (e.g., mis-using the exchange stabilization fund to bail out Citi and co for bank loans to Mexico back when they worked for Clinton).

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:11 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Sardonicus
Sardonicus's picture

Thanks for the taters robo

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:46 | Link to Comment Pizza Delivery Man
Pizza Delivery Man's picture

Tyler -

From one of your earlier posts today...

"The only fundamental that supports a weak US dollar is the deficit, but yet again the UK is following the quantitative easing path, Japan and Europe are stimulating their economies at the taxpayer's expense, with Japan having no real lesson to give when it comes to nationalizing private debt and consumption (their main policy in the early 90s), and China is running pretty much on stimulus with debt to GDP ratios hardly available for their economy as they are lost in the statistical smoke and mirror show orchestrated in Beijing and a massive over capacity problem ...The only way the USD will keep falling much further is on an attack on the greenback, which is in nobody's interest, even those who think a global currency is the way of the future (more on that in a later discussion)."

To now -

"After all with the dollar's value soon hitting zero"

confused

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:48 | Link to Comment . . .
. . .'s picture

You are quoting ICAP versus a flippant comment by Tyler.  Neither of which may represent Tyler's views on the dollar.

 

But if you want flippant, a dollar is a perpetual, interest-free loan to the US government backed by law of fiat.  What's that worth?

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:51 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:08 | Link to Comment Pizza Delivery Man
Pizza Delivery Man's picture

What about disinflationists?

Any problem with us?

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:03 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:52 | Link to Comment Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

This is systematic short covering.  There doesn't appear to be any new money entering the markets, but there are enough of us who have been dumb enough to take short positions, especially with all the talk about how bad September normally is.  Once short sellers capitulate and stop adding to positions, this thing dies a natural death - and goes lower than March because without short sellers, there is no natural buyer when things get "low enough".

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:56 | Link to Comment shortsail03@yahoo.com (not verified)
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Their lives.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:00 | Link to Comment Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

That's not exactly true - if it were, we'd be seeing growing positions on someone's balance sheet.  Instead, they're using fiat money to drive short sellers out, selling as the shorts cover.  It's the reason why each day we get wave patterns - the same patterns each day.  They end the day net neutral, with a direct transfer of wealth from shorts to longs.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:10 | Link to Comment JohnKing
JohnKing's picture

I think they are clearing all the phantom shares that accumulated in the naked shorting days leading up to the "collapse". Not so sure how deep that well is.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:22 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:28 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:53 | Link to Comment Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

All this and the Semiconductor index isn't even positive,  .....YET....

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:56 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

So, the BKX up 3.70% as it is announced that the Fed is reviewing the largest regional banks exposure to CRE (seriously, they are just getting around to doing this now?).  Proving that timing really is everything......

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:06 | Link to Comment Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

Here comes the Fed bailout money for Bank CRE, after the forensics are done.  Paging Mr. Dover.  Ben Dover.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:09 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

exactly.

hence the strong rally in regionals. 

because there are NO coincidences.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

The bear (killing) season is in full swing. SRS is now trading < $10, and you've got to believe HAL's current algorithms will drive FAZ to < $20. 

Remember one thing: These guys will NEVER admit they are wrong, and are sending our economy to hell in the process.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:05 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:06 | Link to Comment thegreatsatan
thegreatsatan's picture

this whole fucking thing makes me feel like puking all day long. there is absolutley zero fucking reason for this market to go up, yet day after day I see my old porfolio moving towards recovery of nearly everythign I lost in 2008.  Since I pulled out on Sep 2, i've lost 7% of "magic" gains since this current run-up.

 

 

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:08 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Dude you currency is being systematically devalued that's why it's going up.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:12 | Link to Comment JohnKing
JohnKing's picture

Inflations effect on equities, takes more dollars to buy the junkers.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:10 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:18 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Treasuries won't give while the banks can borrow at zero and park the money in 10 year for 3.4%. Either that or the Chinese fail to turn up for auctions.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:16 | Link to Comment buzzkillington
buzzkillington's picture

I was just thinking the same thing.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:20 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Yeap the problems are stored up for the exit. How do you end this mess. The minute the Fed moves rates up, the market will price the entire move up. Now that's when the problems start.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:15 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Assetman
Assetman's picture

Wow... I don't think I've ever seen as much disconnect between fundamental reality and market values in equities... ever.

The Internet bubble is the closest parallel, and we all know how well that turned out.

But this can certainly continue... and I would assume it will.

Until it doesn't.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:31 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

But those values are priced in dollars and they are depreciating, hence it goes up. Look at gold, or copper, or even nat gas in the last few days, generally anything priced in dollars.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:37 | Link to Comment Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

A good point.  Couple this with the Germans doing a bond sale denominated in dollars and the implicit takeaway is that the dollar is gonna get shivved.

S&P trading range: 1200-12,000.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:43 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Yeap the dollar is the new world funding currency like the Yen carry. You can now only make a judgement about the S&P 500 levels once you have made a judgment of where the US dollar will be. As you said if the EURUSD is going to 1.60 and above then 1200 is perfectly plausible.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:19 | Link to Comment ratava
ratava's picture

Worst thing is EU has no way of fighting back. They do not need QE per se, but how else do you want to protect your currency against the dollar dumping. 

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:31 | Link to Comment orca
orca's picture

Some perspective from the European brothers, also trying to hang on for dear life.

My strategy at the moment is shorting the fut within a long call - short call band,

and waiting for this monster to come crashing down in order to write puts and close

the short call. I have tried everything else to no avail. what we're witnessing is beyond

stupid but we have to deal with it. Absolutely f**king toxic environment.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:34 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Actually the really bizarre part about this is why are european markets rising. They follow the Dow up, but if the Dow is going up because of dollar weakness then they are rising for no real reason.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:50 | Link to Comment orca
orca's picture

Some perspective, probably not known at your side.

GS is primary market maker here on every derivative except

monthly options. They own the market, as you can see every day,

lending in DC and carrying the Europeans, also by

trying to create feedback loops with the fut and

European futures. Bizarre environment.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:50 | Link to Comment Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

+1.  Caveat: all fiat is being debased, so that logic isn't perfect.  And my presumption is that, given discord within the Union, the Euro, as currently configured, has less than 36 months to live.  Some number of countries will abandon the Euro for their own currencies due to poltical/economic exigencies.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:00 | Link to Comment orca
orca's picture

Possible but I doubt it. Imho the FED is actually trying to demolish their own currency, not merely debase it, whereas the ECB (which is a proper CB, not some superbank owned by Wall Street) tries to steer some course resembling normalcy in these times, especially versus the USD. Again, the EUR has enough problems of its own (East- and South- Europe for example), I am not blind to the problems, but they are trying to fix those problems (or at least arrest them) in a "normal" manner.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:30 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:39 | Link to Comment orca
orca's picture

First of all Mr. Trichet is French, not Belgian, and altough I am living in Belgium I do not hold Belgian nationality. You are confusing the EU with the ECB.
Secondly, the ECB is located in Frankfurt, Germany, and so is Trichet.
Thirdly, balance sheet comparisons should be made with regard to variables such as population, and the EU has some 550M people and the USA some 330M (I think).
I am not building a defense for the ECB here, just sharing what we in the EU think the Treasury/FED are doing to your currency and how it affects other countries.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:42 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:31 | Link to Comment orca
orca's picture

True, my formulation was off. What I mean is that the FED/Treasury is actively trying to devalue the USD versus other currencies. That at least is the impression we are getting here, and altough Geithner talks the talk he just refuses to walk the walk. June 1st, with EUR/USD at 1,42, Geither gave his famous "strong and safe dollar" speech in Bejing and was laughed out of the auditorium. Rate briefly dipped to 1,38 mid-June, but now is at 1,47. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:35 | Link to Comment Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Well, they have no intention of 'destroying' the currency, only of devaluing it.  You see, while the individual value is diminished via dilution, the total value remains the same, the sum total fighting for global market share.  Since the Fed owns the currency, printing for the Fed is free, but it is still no free lunch.  The lunch will be paid for by the People via compound interest.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 17:46 | Link to Comment Primal Reversion
Primal Reversion's picture

What makes you think a country's wealth comes from its currency? Destroying the nation's currency simply transfers more wealth into the pockets of those who orchestrated the failure. We're all just a bunch of pawns in the master "reset" game being played out every day.

"Everyone has a price. What's yours?"

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:33 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:20 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Put $75 of operating earnings for 2010 and how does it look?

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:34 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:58 | Link to Comment Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

"If there is any hope of a re-alignment of financial markets with the actual productive economy in the near future, it will mean people have to act like genuine investors again. Analyze the companies, pressure the management, take some fucking responsibility as an owner."

Exactly where does being short preclude me from analyzing a company's health?  The problem is not inherent to being either short or long, it is the manipulation to create false outcomes and insider trading.  It is shackling the 'free market' to a command economy managed from Wall Street via Washington for the purpose of enriching the oligarchs while maintaining the minion-politicians to defend the extant status quo.

Listen, I may not like the vulture carrion's look, but it does serve a purpose.

But if you want to change things for the better and ensure investing serves its purpose of price discovery and capital allocation, put a 90% tax on any trade with a less than one-hour duration.  Reality would come roaring back in a hurry, along with the other 'benefits' of a free market.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:29 | Link to Comment pinkboxtrader
pinkboxtrader's picture

Unfortunately when SPX gains come with correlated depreciation of the USD and even greater costs of international commodities -- saving cash is playing the game. I don't care what other people do with their dollars if their choices are not eroding the money I have earned and not chosen to put at risk.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:36 | Link to Comment Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Profoundly said.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 16:08 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:34 | Link to Comment waterdog
waterdog's picture

This debt request by Geithner is not to give him permission to do what he and Bernanke are about to do. This request is a warning to Congress that he and Bernanke are going to do something and, they had better increase the debt ceiling significantly now instead of in November.

The big question here is, will Geithner tell Congress the truth about why they will need to increase the limit?

Given Geithner's inability to be on the same page as any other treasury manager, I say the answer is no.

I believe the requested debt is for loans to banks to meet reserve requirements.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:34 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:00 | Link to Comment Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

Benny the Bank and the Funny Monies.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:38 | Link to Comment Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

The real question is who is behind the recent $ slide. Is it the market, the FED or the CHinese?
My bet, it's the FED and in that case it's a sign of capitulation. Credit pump did not work "as expected" and they are running out of tools to combat the deflationary pressure.
Wonder how the next producer prices indicator will look? :)

 

If the weak dollar fails, the next option would be letting the deflation go (ouch, better brace for the impact) and pumping in some more credit a little bit later.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:38 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Long US markets, short European markets could get some play. After all if the euro is in rally mode it will crimp US earnings for European companies.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:36 | Link to Comment Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

it's rather risky idea and might be inefficient unless you use derivatives, which in turn would only increase your risk.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:06 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Any risk management scheme involves trying to sluff off the risk on a sucker or trying to pretend your the sucker and get people to sluff off risk on you. The world is waking up to that as the new dynamic in the scheme.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:41 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:53 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:31 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:05 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 12:58 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:02 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:50 | Link to Comment Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

There are many more dollar units floating around in the world this year over last, while considerably fewer gold units have been brought to the surface.  How can gold units not have risen more relative to dollar units?

 

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:14 | Link to Comment Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Looking at SDS and SSO looks like a murderer on a lie detector trying to lie his way out of being questioned about a murder he just commited.

Never seen anything like it...

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:30 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:52 | Link to Comment Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

LOL.  Nice psyops.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:59 | Link to Comment Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

Little birdie has just said that sCReAMER was on pumping IYR.  I'd say it's time to take DRV out for a test, if I would ever do such a thing.

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 13:27 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 09/16/2009 - 21:47 | Link to Comment bilbert
bilbert's picture

And I think it quite likely that in less than 12 months, folks will be slapping their collective foreheads, shouting "DOH!! - why did I not see that $1,000 for an ounce of Gold was a screaming no-brainer!"

Wed, 09/16/2009 - 21:36 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 09/18/2009 - 12:26 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!