This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Market Recap: 11.22.2010
- Stocks traded poorly in the morning on the back of weakness in all things European. US financials also adding weight. But a 13 handle bounce in SPX was encouraging (or a reflection of indifference depending on how you look at it). Right back to the 21d now. SPX closes down 2 at 1198. The DOW closes down 25 at 11179. The NASDAQ closes up 14 at 2532.
- The VIX shed gains into the close to end the day up just +.46 at 18.50.
- The sharp selloff in EURUSD that began in London continued on into New York trading. The pair dropped over 200 points before the violence was done. Of course leveraged and momentum accounts sold, but we didn’t see much real money behind it. As stocks recovered from their lows, however, so has EURUSD – and every other USD-pair out there for that matter. Elsewhere inFX, tech accounts have been better sellers of XJPY, which has in turn put some weight on USDJPY. EM flow has been modest. Early buying of USDMXN and USDBRL turned to selling of USDs vs. Asia in the afternoon.
- The rates market rallied on the back of risk asset weakness finishing the day 3.5 to 9 bps stronger led by the belly of the curve. Flows remained light throughout the session but were largely two-way in our franchise business. The $35bn 2yr auction came and went with little fanfare clearing at 52.7bps (0.7bps tail) and the market does not seem to be very concerned with the 5yr or 7yr auction as we have not seen a concession on the outright or on the curve.
- In commodities, copper fell on news that China’s imports fell to a one-year low. Precious metals did better, with gold and silver up 1% and 2.3%, respectively. Flow-wise, we saw leveraged buying of Jan11 calls. In energy, Nat Gas outperformed (+2.64%), while RBOB and crude fell. Ags were also mixed with wheat rising on demand expectations from Egypt, while cotton traded limit down again on concerns that China demand will slow. We saw leveraged and real money rolling grains and meats today.
- Credit followed equities lower this morning on light volume aside from some decent activity around the 100.50 level in HY. Those left short risk from last week used this dip as an opportunity to buy some back as equities turned. HY rallied 1/2 pt in the last couple hours of trading to close flat on the day at 100.8125 after selling off this morning. IG closed flat at 89.50 after trading in a tight range with low participation.
- Tomorrow brings US Q3 GDP, core PCE, and existing home sales; Euroland flash PMIs; Q3 GDP for Norway and Germany; and Canadian CPI and retail sales. We also have a Polish central bank meeting along with the FOMC minutes from the QE2 meeting and updated forecasts of growth, inflation, and unemployment.
- Tomorrow also will see a modest $1-2 billion TIPS POMO.
From Goldman Sachs and Zero Hedge
»
- 3255 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
ES
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/es_3015.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts
From Goldman Sachs and ZeroHedge
team work. how nice.
did anyone want to mention that GS closed down $5.62 ? anyone think that's relevant to today's MarketRecap?
They dare not...
Big move for silver and the dollar today. For silver I expected a dip into today (due to the pattern of a big down move into opex), but I didn't know the following move would be so strong. I figured to be back at $28 tomorrow. For the dollar, well, maybe the silver movement is acting as a currency move. Today may have been the day silver threw her hat into the ring. Watch for CBs to take note.
Is this the same trade we saw last summer vis a vis gold and the dollar? Yes, that means it is silver's turn. Silver will hit $36 by the 21st easy. Not to mention people are taking possession of real money. Maybe a higher upside should be considered.
USD refusing to fold to the JPY. Epic battle going on in that arena. When that puppy breaks (either way...), there's gonna be some fireworks!
Orly,
I admit that I am not a currecny trader...but I watch them closely. I'm not sure on your call here.
My opinion...the primary battle between the dollar and the yen was last week...and the strong dollar stomped the yen pretty good. Seems to me that the dollar could rise slowly there for days or weeks...and probably will.
The real action, that driving stock market prices today, was the Euro/USD cross...with some British Pound action tossed in for good confirmation.
I could be wrong. Enlighten me.
Actually thought NFLX, AMZN and AAPL held things together along with The Russell. I'd call it speculating in the face of rage and the "wall of worry". Otherwise, with energy and Fnc'ls lower, one would think we'd crater and stay there. That was not he case.
Agreed on the premise that those issues held the market together at the end. However, that is simply an algorithm. When commodities tank together, that is more significant in my eyes than a GS algo. Algos are, of course, very fair weather friends. And, ummm, the weather seems anything but fair just now.
In fact, feels like a cold front approaching with flash crashes likely.
Alas, we should expect The Perfect Storm? I'm with ya on that. We must accept that markets will move to extremes we never would think of,,,,,so,,,,,let's not think and see where it takes us. Grab your raincoat.
Well, a symptom of the action in the EURUSD cross was indicative of strong risk aversion. Everything was moving out of "risk-on" currencies, such as EUR and AUD and moving into the "risk-off" currencies, such as the JPY and USD.
I am making no "call" here. I am only saying that there is an epic battle going on in the USDJPY to see which one is going to be the "risk-on" and which is going to be the "risk-off" currency. Once in a lifetime opportunity to watch the movement in the pair to see which one will dominate, what the signals will be on the turn (to help us later when we see the same signals on not such a grand scale...) and how quickly the move will come after the turn is made.
Last week, there was the same action. The pair peaked early Monday last and has traded sideways ever since. The candles on the H1 charts are getting smaller and small, similar to a Bollinger Band compression in stocks. When that baby pops, up or down, the move could be pretty big.
The 83.16 level is critical.
I think the yen being a surplus currency has probably decided that one.
Tho I would be short both after any major risk off event.
The big question is how China gets out of this, when the US and Europe tanks, can the Chinese really continue to grow?
My bet is yes that they will simply print and build regardless of the economic misallocation.
Almost all world markets in the red including all futures.
http://www.sgxniftydowfutureslive.com/index_files/DOWFUTURES.htm
GM holding so I guess everything is OK
Dollar
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/dollar_4571.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts
Larry Pesavento calling for a crash, like he has each week for the last 18 weeks or so.
Based on something to do with Venus.
23 minutes into the podcast.
http://www.tigeruniversity.com/mp3/TOS112210.mp3
I guess he's going to be right, eventually.
But for right now, he's been getting killed being short. He's getting ready for a roadshow to demonstrate his trading strategy in Asia, says he will be a featured guest on CNBC Asia later this week.
Pesavento is in alignment with Uranus this week.
TF
Diamond Top?
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/tf_22.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts