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Market Rips, Short Interest Plunges
This is so much more than just a short covering rally. Oh wait, it's not. 72.19% drop in Short Interest across securities, compliments of stock loan-cum-TARP bailout recipients. So you see, if you are a taxpayer, who believes that fundamentals are more critical than an artificially inflated market compliments of the biggest, most orchestrated short squeeze in history, you got Got by the same people you bailed out.
Update: Apparently Bberg had not completed filling its data at time of posting. We apologize for Bloomberg not having the perspicacity and alacrity of a 10 million SPARC turbo cluster. The end result: 21.05 billion shares short at 1.72% of float. The odd discrepancy is the increase in short-interest on NYSE-issued securities. Any readers who have an idea what is going on here, please chime in.
Nonetheless, below is the trend chart for the % of float as most recently reported by Bloomberg. If this data changes in 24 hours, an update will be posted.
hat tip JB
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I've been gettin got for ohhhh so long. Even better, try calling your congresional representitives to discuss your concerns about this and see how quickly you are, ever so politely, dismissed as a quack with an axe to grind.
Ms North Carolina studying economics now?
http://cfecon.blogspot.com/2009/07/how-to-solve-all-of-californias.html
Great Video. Santa Cruz now has the key to fix all of californias economic problems!
Um, excuse me. "Ms North Carolina"? I don't think so. She's pure California.
Best video of the year...check out what I posted in comments...
hahaah hillarious!
@14439
"check out what I posted in comments" <--- errr like isn't that what you just posted inn comments?
Best video of the year...check out what I posted in comments...
Our future..right there before our eyes. This is CA education at its best.
Also, jailbait, if not a day over 18.
@14483
bait? you are kidding right? you are the only bait: troll
great rack, and smart too!
she needs to get her resume over to cnbc pronto
Yep, it looks like she would have a good chance at getting Michelle Cabrera's spot. Watch out Michelle, this girl just might take Danz advise!
The Californian Sarah Palin.
"...like the food is free, right, so we can sell it at the farmers' market."
The Geithner, Summers, Bernake Cali bailout plan as expalined by Bair.
...chinch bugs. You know...
...manganese. A lot of people
don't even know what that is.
Nitrogen....
Was waiting for that part in her speech:
We should water crops with Gatoraid, cause it has electro lites.
MUWahahahahah ohhhhh, whew.... that was a good laugh... and being a native Californian... now I'm gunna cry... and people wonder why I think the entire world is full of morons....
rotflmao.....you could not make that up...was it
an audition? was it really at a studio? did all
of her brains melt into her tits??
New rule: You can only sell a stock for a higher price than you paid. Stocks must go up every day. All down days are now illegal.
i shorted yesterday. just bought the DOG. ouch
The first stage of any bull is short covering. If the market can't go lower when MSFT and AMZN are minus 8% for the day then when can it?
When Somali pirates sink some of GS and DB oil tankers in storage hanging outside of Singapore? Oil up, good for recovery. Where would the market be if oil was at 50, 40, 30, 20.
H
"oil tankers in storage hanging outside of Singapore"
Yes second time in two months and there are a lot of tankers moored in the strait ..
the first stage of any bull market is short COVERING.... not short CAPITULATION...
shorts capitulate at the TOP of the market DUH DUH DUH
Went all cash several weeks ago. Smell ya later, S&P, at sub 750.
Yeah...but once the short interest goes to ZERO....what is left? What can they do then????
If something bad were to break...with no shorts IN THE MARKET, just think of the velocity of the crash.
It could be epic.......would so love to see GS get crushed.
Hey CNBC.....we are all Tyler Durden!
that's exactly what i thought, and precisely why my shorts have been so unprofitable. Needless to say, i've had to cover at substantial losses. Right now, if GS listed a target of 1300 S&P by end of year, I would not try to short against it.
...ahh, it's been way to long of a week.
No doubt. It has been an awful week.
Same here. I covered at a substantial loss. I am out of the market. Just going to put money in as CDs in my local credit union, after checking out their soundness. Laddering CDs is not sexy, but when a market is clearly manipulated, fundamental analysis and investing is out the door. Enough of my money has gone to GS. From now on, just work, keep my job, be extremely thrifty, save, and invest in myself.
there are plenty of plays out there... made 13% the last week. just missed over 30% since i bailed out of SPWRB before their earnings... who'd thought a bankrupt state could produce such a green shoot??!?!??
take out the stops to go up, take out the shorts to go
DOWN !!!
I'd be curious to hear when you shorted... I'm guessing last week when we were near 870 and fading?
Like any good zh-er, I'm bearish but also like a zh-er, I'm conscious of the invisible hand being not so invisible and having a GS arm attached to it. For that reason, I decided not to short. I've been sticking with mostly cash, silver bullion, and some seculars/defensives that have been either catching part of the up move or will catch some money rotating into defensives as it gets scared out of the beta names. But god knows how this story is going to end.
Love or hate Cramer, but one of his sayings is solid gold: diversification is the only free lunch.
seriously - bear or bull you have to be quick in this churn market.. i keep making money shorting BAC but then i jump and go long on anything I've been watching hit their low range
its fast food trading.. sucks but you can make quick bucks
"you have to be quick in this churn market"
...nothing that a little HFT won't fix, come on now! get with the action.
similar story to me, was heavy duty short, and at 870 i held tight, but since that i got CRUSHED, demolished....i had a ton of exposure and margin called outa half of it thursday morning...
they are all a bunch of fucks
Yes, that is true, a lot of politicians think shorts are evil, but they find out the bad companies and also help to slow a fall.... as they profit take and at the bottom will help to fuel a sharp rebound as they close out.
But tell that to those that poke and prod and interfere with normal market functioning!
They don't seem to care that they are promoting another bubble yet again... Fed and the rest AKA bubble blowing machines
You just have to look at valuations and earnings to see this is now worse than the nasdaq bubble already.
marketwatch proudly states that biggest winning streak since 2000..... ha ha, just says it all, bubblemania has yet again been let loose and promoted by the FED
I was against short selling in the past. At least I thought I was but later to find out that I was more like against unfair trading practices. You are right in that shorts provide a legitimate function. Without the shorts it seems unlikely any major scandal (i.e. Enron, etc..) would have been uncovered in a timely manner by any gov't agency. Seems it's always the shorts doing the exposing.
You should be able to test this theory next week in the Materials, Energy and Utilities sectors, where the short interest is at negligible levels at this point. I'll be watching that myself.
I've seen this movie before. The market can go up when energy/materials lag if tech/pharma get squeezed even further and financials just stay neutral. I believe the highest short interest is in tech right now, according to that chart.
Not saying the whole market will not go up. I'm saying that if the theory about this being purely a short-squeeze rally that will end as soon as the short interest is all out, then we should see no further increases in energy, materials and utilities. If that holds, then when the remaining tech and financial shorts are driven out, the whole market would also come down.
I personally think that it can keep going up even after the squeeze ends. It doesn't matter what people who care about fundamentals think anymore. With the dominance of HFT, the market can work as a ponzi scheme for an indeteminate amount of time - or until the big boys decide it's time to go the other way. Everyone else's opinions make no discernible difference in this exercise "price discovery".
Took this from technical shop Lowrys, it's a snippet of this weekend's report:
>>"The rally from the March lows has consistently conflicted with the probabilities drawn from our history since 1933. For example, this is the first time in 76 years in which an almost five month rally has occurred on diminishing volume. This is also the first time that such an extensive rally has occurred with our Buying Power Index dropping to new lows. "<<
bbtrader....I do like the piece of information you posted. If you do not mind, could you specify the link, I would like to see that web site...thanks!!!
http://www.lowryondemand.com/
i should add that 1. i've access to the site via someone else, and that a subscription is pretty expensive; and 2. the weekend report also has stated some positives regarding recent advance/decline (both straight up and OCO) data, which is the basis for their analysis. in any case, they seem to be pretty confused about recent market action as their buy and sell signals haven't worked so well during this rally
lowrys is purely supply/demand analysis so in ways it's different from momentum analysis which is what i do
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17826270561&a=173780901
see attached; also, fibo retracement proponents will say, we've yet to get to 38.2 retracement (around 1000-1015), so that's certainly where the S&P 500 seems to want to go - before the next leg lower; thus, better to let the bulls run this up before going short
I'm with you BB
this marquette is a willow-wisp: now u see me now u don't. The hard part is when? Like many hereabouts I left the market weeks ago.
For me there's been this disquiet now for... oh... since about 1987, that for some reason wages and salaries were not keeping up with inflation, well they were but for some reason inflation wasn't keeping up with inflation, kinda like jobless aren't what they seem, anyway it became clearer and clearer over time that expansion was being funded with ever-increasing debt. How could it be any other way when ordinary folk were getting better loans but no cost-of-living increases.
Oh how retr0grade (sic) I feel. We lives and we learns.
I shoulda paid my workers more.
Now where was it again that I should hide my assets?
Your 2nd paragraph well, bingo...
About the markets, as I've said I work with a momentum model and the run up from March has worn down some (despite the recent ultrabullish media talk); but it has been strong even as volume has shrunk, so we should have a rousing 4 weeks a coming - at least my volatility measuring stick is telling me so
Let's see, buy low denomination Iraqi dinars (1158 $IQD = 1 $USD) or platinum - hey, the Dow auto index is up over 150% from the March low, that's telling us something...
GS has already offloaded the majority of their holdings onto the institutional investors. The institutional managers do not care, since it is not their money. Next quarter's trading numbers for GS are going to look awesome. The market will not go down, because the institutional investors will not sell. Why should they? They are long. So the market is going to go up without a doubt until October when GS reports. In October, GS is going to engineer a takedown of the market, once they are short, and then make profits on the way down, and cover and drive the market back up for a banner blowout 2009! Lather, rinse, repeat. Financial crisis, what financial crisis?
It's like riding a swing. You pump on the way up AND on the way down. The swings get wider and wider. Eventually you either overshoot and fall off (ouch) or else you hit it just right and can keep the ride going all day.
The idea here is velocity of money. Up-and-down is still moving, even if it isn't moving anywhere in particular. Even if it's just sloshing back and forth in a bucket. As the money moves in a predictable way (because you are pumping it according to a plan) you can skim a bit off each leg of the trip, either up or down.
The money accumulates where someone wants it. Does it ever rejoin the system? Don't know.
In an end game, it doesn't NEED to rejoin the system. It is INTENDED to rejoin the system. The system is played out. You pull the money out and hang onto it until the next game can be dealt. Nobody alive today knows what that will look like for sure, but I think a few people are playing their cards already.
I ain't one of them, is all I know for certain.
cougar
At some point the markets have to go down otherwise GS will not be able to actualize their profits, and pay their people. Given the FED backstop, and the 12Billion through AIG, they and the other Wall Street behemoths use investor psychology to determine the capitulation points for bears, and smack them down. In a bear market, killing shorts is one of the surest ways for the GS types to make money.
you do realize hat what GS gains the institutions lose....
it's not like GS lives in a vacuum, unless og course you refer to our heads.
Read "millions Wait for Delayed Jobless Checks" at MSN.com
States and FED cannot keep up with the checks.
Looks to me it got worse??? Our govt figures only showed an uptick in unemployment, yet MSN.com says 15 million jobless checks go out, not the 6 million unemployed the govt says.
15 million = 22% unemployment.
Welcome to the real world figures!
look at shadowstats.com
Companies participating in Work Sharing could skew that number. There would be no jobless claim, but the check would still go out. Unfortunately, I know more people who are laid-off than people participating in Work Sharing.
this current reinflation of these piece of shit equities is going to end just like the dot com bubble.
today's action brings back memories of greenspan's "irrational exuberance".
Reminds me of fall of 2001, classic post-bubble behavior in the markets.
reminds me off....last week.
...of...
I thought the same thing myself but I don't think rally off the bottom was as vicious as this one. The S&P didn't rally 10 days in a row.
Also, if you look at the late 01-02 slow grind, low vol rally, it did not end very well at all.
This move over the last 10 or so days is bubble-esque. And probably still has legs and maybe we'll NEVER see another 1% pullback again. EVER!
% Change since when?
Exactly same question I had...
"There is only one side of the market, and it is not the bull side, or the bear side, but the right side"
- Jesse Livermore
i like the left side.
you want to explain this nonsense? figures seem idiotic
TD, you say "the biggest, most orchestrated short squeeze in history." Agreed. Bernanke today says that the Fed is "winding down" emergency measures (Bloomberg). Right. So that when the next plunge comes he can (surprise!) rev up these measures; another short squeeze and "buying opportunity of a lifetime" would be created, and GS and the Boys will milk it for all its worth. Again.
Not quite clear on the timeframe covered in that chart, but recall the big BofA and Citi preferred-to-common conversions likely resulted in a large amount of short covering of arb positions, and that was a lot of shares. In addition, a lot of the capital raises have been bought by shorts, resulting in more shares outstanding and lower short interest. Just some food for thought. The numbers are striking, but there are some plausible explanations for a portion of it. That and a lot of people wanting to get out of the way of the freight train.
The numbers are not striking, they look retarded.
C has not been covered yet, who are you kidding.
How do you figure? data is from 7/15 and conversions are just now underway.
Besides - Citi short interest 7/15 vs 6/30: 1.214bln vs. 1.198bln
further, you can't cover short shares with shares purchased in a secondary.
"just some food for thought"
I hope some of the pension funds use this opportunity to lighten their exposure to equities but I fear they will double down instead.
I believe Calpers just announced they want to double down on a number of investments including California real estate, junk bonds, Private equity, commodities, and more.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/24/business/24calpers.html?_r=1
Typical.
I'm literally about to FU to the NYSE & NASDAQ forever. The more this BS continues the more the retail investor is going to pack up and go away and will not come back. I fucking hate the markets at this point.
Go ahead and leave. They don't want you. Oh sure, they'll take you in the haul, but what they are after are the pensions.
They intend to drain them dry. That wad of money needs to find a new home before the coming slug of retirees start looking around for it.
In spite of flurry of bad earnings released today by some of the biggest companies in the US, the market managed to make another yearly high. How is this possible? A 29% drop in earnings by MSFT would have dropped Nasdaq COMP by 100 pts a few years ago.
Computers were going overtime on keeping the rachet locked... nearly saw it smoking at one stage.... prevent the stops being triggered then mess about all day getting some new shorts and ping as usual end of day
Market can go to 15000 by end of next month now they got the hang of a bad day's earnings!
This market is not about earnings, computers don't read balance sheets, nor look at yields, eps, p/e etc., all they do now is take that off the program trading list for the day to let the shorters think they have the upper hand.
Next day they will merely squeeze any overnighters out again when they add it back to the list.
They are creating ups and downs so their computers can play with them. There is probably some kind of warfare happening between opposing algos out there. Many opposing teams playing a hyperdimensional board game. Like a game of Go; showing some weakness, drawing the other guy in, then closing him off and squeezing him to death. Go is just a game, but the actual play is brutal.
Same here. Just a game. Losing a stone, picking up a side, feint to the corner. Skimming. An intellectual exercise in destroying the world.
cougar
I fail to understand the market nowadays.
Market's up when oil's down - all headlines scream "the drop in oil lifted the market"
Market's up when oil's up - the same headlines shout "the energy sector pushed the market up"
Price action dictates the headlines, not the other way round.
Anyone just hear that lame ass argument by those evildoers
for HF trading on w/Maria a few minutes ago? "It creats liquidity" what a crock.
Maria-"but the individual investor can't do that ?!"
Evildoer- "yes but their mutual funds do."
BBBBBWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAHHHhahahahahahahahh !!!
What a crock of shit.
seeing only -15.84% change, what defaults are you using Tyler? great stuff
Every since the Russian crisis/LTCM event of Sept 1998 it has been groundhog day.
Same play book, same outcome.
At the end of 11 years you are @ the same place you started. The only thing that has changed is power has become highly concentrated (and thus unchecked) in a couple of players.
i think the parallels between this market and the Russian market after '98 are striking. the swiftness of the rebounds are very similar. it would dictate taking a bullish stance instead of a bearish one on the assumption that we saw a panic and it's over, not the beginning of a depression. just a thought as i resist the temptation to fight the tape.
This would have been the point all along.
The failure of short-term thinking for immediate gain was that we gave the Republic to the few left thinking long.
Long as used here is a word that means 20 years. Though if I was being very pessimistic, it might mean 100 years. There are famlies around that think that far into the future. We are children playing in a sandbox compared to them. But they encouraged us to "live for the moment!"
We never had a chance.
cougar
If I understand this correctly, those are the short interest changes since Jul 15?
as of July 15, it looks like he's going back to march.
Didn't short interest become quite high in late May/early June? In any case, best thing to do is watch the weekly chart and wait for a signal and then short, the recent move down was premature, money is playing the weekly, not daily chart
it should be since the last report, its biweekly.
numbers look wrong to me though.
Politically expedient. If some were to get busted for this it was to save the system from short sellers. Heroes I tell ya, freakin heroes.
what does tell you this is a short squeeze?
isn't it quite normal that shorts get covered on a large up-move? voluntarily?
Here is a question for people with brokerage back office operation experience.
I am wondering if it is possible for the FEDs to intervene directly in the equity markets without leaving any hard evidence.
For example, would it be possible for the FEDS to up build a massive spoos position, let's say 30-60K etc, without leaving a footprint? How hard would it be to hid that? Wouldn’t some low level employee at the CME see it and spill the beans?
Or maybe they could use over-the-counter instruments to achieve the same goal? Like sell crap load of OTC PUTS to Goldman Sachs for peanuts, and have them buy spoos against the puts? But then, the position size would show up on GS's books. So its hard to hide there too.
Wouldn't it be easier for them to overwrite the ticker tape directly at the exchange? No socialist country ever needed a stock exchange for valuation purposes, so why the US?
Yes, that’s true too, though that method is much more riskier in terms of exposure, because there is a chance that some disgruntled exchange employee learns about the scheme and spills the beans. I always suspect that if a government agency wants to do something bad, they'll do it like the CIA, operate through phantom companies, etc.
take a look at TD's State Street article that discusses the possibility of the Fed running an account through them.
Awesome thanks. Do you happen to have the link to the article?
I just searched this site for "State Street" and got a lot of results. It's cool if not, I'll probably just go through them later and find it.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/zero-hedge-exclusive-is-state-stre...
Hopefully this is better...
Is State Street Trading for Federal Accounts?
Sorry, it killed the link. Apparently ZI won't allow HTML.
Crash to give obama presidency
Prop up to get Cap and trade passed...
Beautiful Goldman, beautiful job...
You should have had a trading revenue line on top of your Program Trading report....they only made about 7 billion on the collapse and subsequent reflation...but who's counting
This doesn't look like a 72% drop:
http://www.wallstreetcourier.com/technician/market-indicators/nyse-short...
You gonna believe your eyes or what Commissar Durden tells ya.
LOBN
Lots of Bogus Nonsense
You stupid prick. Do you even know what you are looking at? He is not "telling" you, he is showing you a print screen from a Bloomberg terminal that backs his claim.
You can argue parameter or how it is calculated, but unless you are accusing TD of fabricating the image, then he is not lying.
You on the other hand, have absolutely no idea of what you are talking about, or you are purposefully dropping disinformation
Mid July "2008"
This naz report shows short interest up
NASDAQ Announces Mid-month Open Short Interest Positions in NASDAQ Stocks as of Settlement Date July 15, 2009
July 24, 2009: 04:05 PM ET
NEW YORK, July 24, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- At the end of the settlement date of July 15, 2009, short interest in 2,445 NASDAQ Global Market(sm) securities totaled 6,978,473,519 shares compared with 6,733,181,070 shares in 2,456 Global Market issues reported for the prior settlement date of June 30, 2009.
Newbie. need educating. I don't understand the chart or the commentary. Are poepl putting on more shorts or taking them off?
Tyler, i don't question the screenshot, but you can please explain the parameters that are entered- i can't seem to derive anything similar...thanks.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2448628720090724
NEW YORK, July 24 (Reuters) - Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange rose 0.4 percent in mid-July, the exchange said on Friday, suggesting a slight increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.
As of July 15, short interest rose to about 15.64 billion shares, compared to 15.57 billion shares as of June 30.
The short interest on July 15 was equivalent to 4.1 percent of the total shares outstanding.
Investors who sell securities "short" profit from betting stocks will fall. Short sellers borrow shares and then sell them, waiting for the stock to fall so they can buy the shares back at the lower price, return them to the lender and pocket the difference.
Holy crap, we're already up to seven bank failures today and it's still early!
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
I tried every period and went back a year and couldn't get numbers that looked like these. Util. down 99.3% - just doesn't look right.
It looks like Tyler ran SI while Bloomberg was still batch updating the new short interest numbers from the exchanges. I can't get anything remotely like this running SI on my terminal, using either "All Securities", SPX, RIY or NDX.
Look, don't be short by 2:00. OK! I understand what TD is saying. However, it's quite obvious to short right now is extremely dangerous. The pain will far outweigh gain. I don't make the rules, I just try and profit from them. Adapt or die. I am not going to argue the correctness of the rules.
SLP short their "provisioning"?
Looking at Bloomberg's SI data on "All Securities" is very dangerous because their data is so bad, particularly for pink sheets. For example, they are showing SI as % of float dropping from 5.71% on 6/30 to 1.72% on 7/15. But this entire effect is due to bad data on AMBWQ, which they show as having short interest of 28,150% on 6/30 and 0% on 7/15.
To avoid the bad Pink Sheets data, always filter Source->Exchange and choose and exchange when running SI.
Tyler, please retract the post - you are beginning to lose credibility.
Tyler, not one BB user was able to replicate your numbers. Please retract or redact.
He took it from another blog without verifying.
So when the shorts are hosed and everyone is in cash there goes liquidity again. The NYSE is screwing itself. I just migrated my daughters 529(I will never invest in that scam again) to cash in on the rally. WTF good does that do for the NYSE? there's no retail volume at all.
I know Obama hates the hedge funds and wants them to die a hard death but what's left? Goldman pickpocketing and ruining the hedge funds and now the hedge funds are probably hacking the goldman code into their own black boxes.
Did anyone tell the Admin that the smart money is hiding in YEN now?
Couldn't watch the full video ... too painful after a few seconds watching. One word captures it ... STUPID!!!
Is there anyway a retail trader would be able to access such information? Is that updated on a daily basis
lol, I told you dweebs right away this data was obviously fos.
Durden loves to post crap.
Fraud.
Tyler, please read my post #14626 to see what is going on with the data showing 1.72% of float. You should always filter to Exchange->NYSE to avoid the bogus Pink Sheets data.
thx
The moral here is not that the data was farked, but that you were so fast to believe it.
Only a nitwit would not have questioned this data.
Cheap shot, you ill mannered little prick. Shit happens.
two mark this feedback as junk?? Well as always, if the data is too good to be true for your case, the data won't be true. Blind followers do not need personalities to "junk" any feedback, they follow anything - like sandals. TD likes to post first and ask questions later ... blind followers run the risk of embarrassing themselves. Junk or educate yourself.
WOW, new data set looks even more significant! Now, TD you'll make a good general. And as of some of those arrogant anons, hopefully for their own sake they will grow out of it.
Short Interest Change.
Looked at the Bberg Screen
It seems if you dig into the numbers...
there is one sector that accounts for the majority of the short covering
That is "CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY"
And within that sector, 2 particular subsectors stands out in short covering.
1. "Consumer services"
2. "Media"
In "Consumer Services", within the "Hotels Restaurants and & leisure"
One stock stands out. That is AMBWQ - AMF Bowling
As for with in "Media"...
Its EWRC - eWorld Cos...
So Mr Durden, what do you think? Are we looking too much into the short covering? Or is Bberg data screwed up... Which I actually strongly suspect.
Perhaps it will take something bigger than Obama, GE and Cramer, something they cannot hide from the masses like the pandemic H1N1coming to a town near you this fall to remind us of how the average consumer is really doing in this economy. Just google it you'll see.
btw her tits will be down by her kneecaps in a few years because she wont wear a bra made in China.