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Is The Market Still Topping Out?
I was sure that the 10,000 momentum-chasing hedge funds in Greenwich would have piled onto the short side a week ago after the indexes got shanked when the Egypt riots began. After all, all of them have made yet another New Year's Resolution to be the first one to catch the next bear market and make a killing shorting the next wave down. However, the tape whipped back around and a frenzy of buying resumed. When is the market going to finally top out?
Here's a possiblity: If the market is making an "abc" pattern equal in length, then the next top could be around 1,360. That's a 187 point run from the last low of 1173, equal in length to the previous run from 1040 to 1227. Who knows?
It appeared that the Transports and Retail indexes were ready to roll over two Friday's ago, but there was no follow through. In addition, the "Crack Head" indexes like the QQQQ and Russell 2000 really failed to make much downside progress.
And here are some other things I saw which provide evidence that the market still wants to grind up higher:
McClellan Oscillator is not oversold, and the Summation Index is still going up. See for yourself:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html
Tech stocks like FFIV which crashed out are now getting some legs and moving back up. Now sitting right under a "Do or Die" point.
Insane breakouts in some 1999 Hookers like "Glow Worm" and "JDS Used" which have been left for dead for over 10 years:
Many other "Left For Dead' stocks are now starting to come around, like Pfizer and Medtronic:
Some stocks completely blew up last week like ABT and MRK, so we must keep an eye on those to see if they are waving a red flag on the entire market.
Next up, the "Resilient Consumer" mo-mo names looked like they were ready to fail, but instead they were immediately bought and HeatMapped the last few days:
However, at the same time, we saw some huge upside moves in the discount names like BIG, ROST, COST, TJX, etc. Maybe a sign of hard times around the corner? Who knows? Check out the rest of the retailers here:
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=9466121
And then there was the huge break in many of the Transports. UPS and FDX were destroyed, but UPS gapped back up after earnings, and other names like Ryder and Landstar came back with a vengeance.
Check out the other Transports. Kind of mixed action:
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=9466123
As for the commodity sector, we got a whiff of a possible "Midnight Massacre" on Friday, but no cigar yet:
Financials are in "No Man's Land", except the JP Morgue with showed some weakness on Friday:
........................
Pretty tough market for short term traders, probably the easiest market in 10 years for "Buy and holders", believe it or not...
So far, the tape has pretty much shaken off:
- Massive and persistent unemployment
- Greece Riots
- Impending PIIGS sovereign defaults
- Volcanic eruptions
- Worst winter storms in 50 years
- Muni Bond market implosion
- Unprecedented currency and commodity volatility
- Stock market implosions in Bangladesh and other assorted third world countries
I'm still waiting for relative weakness in financial, retail, or transport stocks. Or relative weakness in the QQQQ and IWM. We have some relative weakness in EEM, but that's not enough.
So, for now, its still "Party like its 1999".....
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robo, those woman are just high paid pole dancers. good to see chaps are in, in '11.
most of those stocks look like very good buys. lower prices on lower volume and higher prices on higher volume with signifigant gaps even! some will be market leaders. question is: who is making the trend? these things don't just happen out of no-where.
http://covert2.wordpress.com
a picture says a trillion words, thanks.
It is 1999 all over again, Robo, but this time with real value. Gloworm and the Cisco Kid and the revampers and expanders of networking infrastructure are going to do fantastically well over the next two decades.
Did you hear that instead of using copper wiring in homes now, there is a method to use...glass!?!?
Think about it.
From wikipedia:
Aluminium conductorsAluminium wire was common in North American residential wiring from the late 1960s to mid 1970s due to the rising cost of copper. Because of its greater resistivity, aluminium wiring requires larger conductors than copper. For instance, instead of 14 AWG (American wire gauge) for most lighting circuits, aluminium wiring would be 12 AWG on a typical 15 ampere circuit, though local building codes may vary.
Terminal blocks for joining aluminium and copper conductors. The terminal blocks may be mounted on a DIN rail.
Aluminium conductors were originally used with wiring devices intended for copper wires. This can cause defective connections unless the aluminium was one of a special alloy, or all devices — breakers, switches, receptacles, splice connectors, i.e., wire nuts, etc. — were designed to address problems with junctions between dissimilar metals, oxidation on metal surfaces and mechanical effects that occur as different metals expand at different rates with increases in temperature. Unlike copper, aluminium has a tendency to cold-flow under pressure, so screw clamped connections may get loose over time. This can be mitigated by using spring-loaded connectors that apply constant pressure, applying high pressure cold joints in splices and termination fittings, and torquing the bolted connection. Unlike copper, aluminium forms an insulating oxide layer on the surface. This is sometimes addressed by coating aluminium wires with an antioxidant paste at joints, or applying a mechanical termination designed to break through the oxide layer during installation.
Because of improper design and installation, some junctions to wiring devices overheated under heavy current load and caused fires. Revised standards for wiring devices (such as the CO/ALR "copper-aluminium-revised" designation) were developed to reduce these problems. Nonetheless, aluminium wiring for residential use has acquired a poor reputation and has fallen out of favor.
Aluminium conductors are still used for power distribution and large feeder circuits, because they cost less than copper wiring, and weigh less, especially in the large sizes needed for heavy current loads. Aluminium conductors must be installed with compatible connectors.
Modern wiring materialsAn electrical "3G" power cable found commonly in modern European houses. The cable consists of 3 wires (2 wires + 1 grounding in case if cable has "3G" name) and is double-insulated.
Modern nonmetallic sheathed cables (NMC), like (U.S. and Canadian) Type NM, consist of two to four wires covered with thermoplastic insulation and a bare wire for grounding (bonding) surrounded by a flexible plastic jacket. Some versions wrap the individual conductors in paper before the plastic jacket is applied. It is often called Romex™ cable, since the first of its type was manufactured by Rome Cable Division of Cyprus Mines, Rome, New York. The trade name has been owned by Southwire since it purchased the electrical building wire assets of General Cable in 2001.
Rubber-like synthetic polymer insulation is used in industrial cables and power cables installed underground because of its superior moisture resistance.
good info 2 know†
Nonetheless, aluminum wiring for residential use has acquired a poor reputation and has fallen out of favor.
Yeah,I can attest to house burning.
Luckily my wife had left for work, and left the G D up.
I was shaving, and semi dressed, when someone started banging the hell out of my door.
I went to open it, and a lady jogger said your house is on fire!!!.
She pointed to the smoke, and it was my junction box.
This was a home new in '78,we had it built.
I flipped the main breaker(to the house) and smothered the flames.
Luckily it was limited to the box at the time and the insulation was burning.
Cause?.
The MAIN large Aluminum cables (as alum is wont to do overtime will contract, and expand), they fed the breakers, and had worked loose and caused a short(sparks).
A simple removal and special lube was inserted into the connections, and tightened down like hell.
Problem over until??.
Never buy a house with Alum Wiring, ever.
Thanks Robot, nice analysis, and I can not disagree...
For more market commentary:
Gary Kaltbaum is hands down the best guy I've listened to. He is an expert at watching the tape, watching sectors, individual stocks, etc. in determining overall market health and direction.
Friday's podcast was a good one:
http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/020418.mp3
Compare and contrast with Tom O'Brien, who has been shorting stocks and shorting many commodities the last 6 months and has been getting destroyed. He still thinks the market is going to crash any day.
http://www.tigeruniversity.com/mp3/TOS020411.mp3
And another one of my favorite guys who really knows how to watch the tape is Quint Tatro, again a featured guest on FSN this week:
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-0205-1.mp3
And how timely is this? Don "Midnight Massacre" Coxe on here:
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-0205-2.mp3
I'll be heading out to the AMA Supercross race tonight at Anaheim Stadium. Plenty of girls like this will be there.....
R U taking your mom?
What race?
Hey a hot chick Money McBags seems to have overlooked.
I'm trying to make out that tatt..."HarryWanger ?"
after seeing that thing think maybe i'll quit trading and take up boxing,...... or motocross?.......ouch!
Current GDP = $40 billion a month
Bond sales and monetization = $125 billion a month
$14 trillion dollar deficit currently
You do the math...
Nice try with the female mercs though ;-)
Robo,
I agree, things are getting bubbly again, but with $2 trillion in hedge fund assets and more coming in every day, you got to be nuts shorting this market! There will be pullbacks but they're going to be bought hard. Those who get cute shorting this market are going to get slaughtered.
"..with $2 trillion in hedge fund assets and more coming in every day, you got to be nuts shorting this market.."
Call me nuts then coz I have shorted this market. The Hedge Fund inflows are at a new record in the 4th Quarter 2010 as you mention. But recall the last record was £140bn in June 2007, just 2 weeks before the previous top and the indexes collapse.
We'll see who's nuts won't we Mr Kolivakis....
I wouldn't compare today's environment to that of June 2007. All I'm saying is be very careful shorting this market. It's much more manipulated now.
This go-round, the Bear Stearns and Lehman events will occur in a different language. They can't control everything, and the imbalances are building. It's not different this time.
"Much more manipulated now" is probably an understatement. Bernanke has created an environment in which very few want to go short. Seemingly everytime people short that just adds fuel to the meltup fire. The problem however is when something does pop there will be no one required to buy the market (i.e. a short buying back). Perhaps the best analogy is not allowing brush clearing in a forest. As a result any little spark or fire causes the whole forest to go up in smoke.
Leo Kolivakis: "I wouldn't compare today's environment to that of June 2007." Want some glasses??? I've got dejavu; you've got the Hedgies stuffed with money (same as 2007); you've got property turned down months ago (same as '07); the banks and financials have all turned down and detached from the stock Indexes continued rise (same as '07). This is 2007 all over again.... with alarm bells! You stick your money in, you'd be "nuts" not too right? I'm short S&P (ie. short the Fed) and couldn't be more happy with the position being utterly sane (and free from nuts). We shall see shan't we Mr K?It's not a matter of right or wrong. Go ahead short this market at will...your money, not mine. From a risk/reward perspective, I think it's nuts. Doesn't mean I'm right, I just think there is an insane amount of liquidity out there and you risk getting your head handed to you.
from a "risk reward perspective" the upside looks like a pensioner wheezing up a mountain short on oxygen (ie. tiny upside) with potential for this old bloke to completely collapse (ie. big downside)... i'll take the downside, it's a much bigger move, and contrarian to you bozos who invest on the basis of not "fighting the Fed".... boy do you 'experts' believe in nonsense and establishment myths
Wow...faggots really like champagne!
Thanks Robo for the info-....
O.T. -
Top 10 Low Pass Flybys of All Time
Good stuff starts at .40
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Dr2ZB36p9Y&feature=player_embedded
The bernake put is about to expire worthless..
a
thnx for the good info robo. i always enjoy and aprreciate your insight.
The market seems to be rising in direct proportion to Food Stamp Participation. This seems to provide evidence to the theory that in order to create great wealth you must simultaneously create great poverty. (since wealth is never really created only transferred)
Yes...the market is going up and up and up. Nobody can deny this...But lets be honest, this doesn't have fuck all to do with an improving economy...quite the contrary (or so it seems).
Last night I started looking at how stocks had performed since the September 2008 meltdown. I started off buy looking at charts with a start point of April 2008. I was utterly stunned at how many stocks are much much much higher today than they were then. Yet can anyone claim the economy is in better shape today than it was then? (anyone other than Harry of course)
I can't really make any sense of this other than attributing it to QE and outright greed and idiocy. How a market keeps rising on ever lower volume in an ever declining economy is the result of inflationary policies and a whole lot of kool-aid. That's how I see it.
It's a rig job! It's like going to Vegas and playing with free chips. Keep making bets until you win. The hedge funds, with 5x leverage that come from banks, and the banks with 100 leverage that make bets with free money always win at the behest of their master, the NYFed.
Where Timothy Mc Veigh when he is really needed?
Good write-up Robo. The only warning signs I have seen signaling potential danger ahead are:
Will be interesting to see if these are a leading indicator for weakness in our markets.
You are patently missing the two biggest warning bells, property turned down again in September, and the Banks-financials followed. You got the Dow Transports but what the heckaroo has Brazil and India got to do with anything??
Trust me when I say I am as bearish as just about anyone but trading the technicals at this point. If you followed the markets in 2009 you saw that those three emerging markets put in bottoms about 5-6 months before the S&P 500. Of course no relationship stays intact forever but if the markets with the best growth potential are taking a nosedive what does that say about our markets?
I wouldn't be concerned about Brazil, India and Shanghai.
Those are countries with tougher monetary policies, trying to tame inflation and leverage in their banking system. I would consider this as a buying opprotunity for long term investments.
I think we would need some countries with easier monetary policy showing some weakness before we see some real danger.
Just my opinion....
That is a good point since Brazil's interest rate is set at 11.25% which is miles apart from where we are in the United States. However, if the emerging markets are the source of growth (and our exports) then a slow-down there will catch up elsewhere.
Call me nuts too because as of Friday I went all in short. The squid and the hedge funds took note that the whole world went short on the Egypt down day and they've been picking the shorts off ever since... In my opinion the down move is still on. Take a look at how the top formed last April... same type shenanigans.
My prayer to God is that a climatological even occurs and NYC in under ten feet of water.
I hate the game, players, and all else involved.
The USA in nothing less than Egypt, Iran, Suadan, or any other corrupt country.
Let God bring death to the oppressors.
The USA in nothing less than Egypt, Iran, Suadan, or any other corrupt country.
No their open about it, that makes us LIARS.
So, more guilt is on our heads.
@Doop@
Pray towards heaven, row towards shore.
thanks, RT. next time can we get the pictures, first?
long nite, good-lookin.
oh~~~;) didya get yer shorts on last monday? lQQks like they waited for you to get dressed. i'm sure yer stops are regi-mentally tight, tho.
i knew as soon as i joined in on yer call, the toast was almost done. cramer-esque.
oh well, at least silver did ok last wk...
donk Q and i are gonna open a shop to make little pine coffins for export; give the gdp a nice li'l boost 4 all the long rollers, too, while helping out the baltic.
we do what we can.
got cash?
not that liquidity could ever be a problem in this world. kondratieff was a fuking moron!
i hope you do better this week; all i ever do is lose, lose, lose.
i totally agree w/ yer DJT reasoning, but once daboyz let the gas outa oil, late week, everything made sense. front-runners always win.
nice work! ty!
peace.
Buy NVDA,ARMH and SPRD .... Then just hang onto them for a few years, easy money. NVDA just signed a deal with Microsoft and ARMH. They have the top graphic chips in the handheld gamer space and will be in all the android tablets coming out this year.
......... " ARM Holdings owns the mobile market when it comes to licensing chip architecture, but by 2015 the company expects to have a foothold in the PC and server market. That's the primary takeaway from ARM Holdings' earnings conference call earlier this week. ARM is basically an intellectual property licensing company. As a result, it's a dominant processing company without actually manufacturing a processor. Instead, companies like Nvidia do the heavy lifting. Nevertheless, the message is clear: ARM Holdings is deadly serious about being a PC and server player, and at CES 2011 some of the pieces fell into place.
And why not? Microsoft is supporting ARM. Nvidia's Tegra chipset is landing server design wins. " .................
........... " Audiences were treated to something special at Nvidia’s Mobile World Congress, with images of the presentation of the new Tegra 2 3D processor, to be shipped early this year. Nvidia’s new processor is intended to be used in mobile gadgets featuring a 3D screen, while the Tegra 2 3D will have a Dual Corext A9 as its basis, and will be clocked up to 1.2 GHz, offering 5520 MIPS.
Two versions of the processor will be available, an AP25 version specifically for smartphones, while the T25 is available for tablets. Both will make use of the ARM dual Cortex A9 processor, making use of up to 1.2GHz of power.
3D CONVERSIONDigital cameras have already arrived in the world of 3D, and 2011 will see handheld devices being taken over by 3D technology.
It has been predicted that upcoming mobile handsets will feature a Master Image TN-LCD display using cell parallax technology, which makes use of the individual cells to create a 3D effect instead of a parallax barrier, as seen in Nintendo’s 3DS console.
THREAT TO COMPETITIONTablet and mobile phone users will enjoy making use of the 3D screen and being able to move the gadget around in the line of their sight, inside the viewing cone. Nvidia’s Tegra 2 3D will pioneer this new 3D technology and will pose as a threat to the Nintendo 3DS, not to mention Apple’s current generation of iPhones, iPods and iPads.
Master Image has already revealed a Hitachi handset featuring a slide-up 3D display.
CHANGING GAMESThe Tegra 2 3D already promises to change the gaming platform in the mobile arena, primarily setting their eyes on the downfall of Intel, whose Atom technology cannot compete with the Tegra’s energy or graphics performance. Attempts to isolate Nvidia from the netbooks world have already backfired, with Chipzilla failing miserably in the debut in the market." ...............
............. " Nvidia’s Tegra chipset will make it into numerous tablets and phones over the next year. The company just showed off a number of design wins at CES 2011 for the Tegra 2. Tegra 3 based devices will likely make their appearance in late 2011, and just might give the NGP a run for its money based on hardware specifications. The company also has the Tegra Zone, which is an application that provides updates on the latest Tegra enabled games, and acts as a social network for games. " .....................
i just hope i survive the li'l sortie into manufacturing. 1,760 ppg. of regs, not to mention the DBA.
plus, the last time i used a compressor & a nailgun, i stapled my hand to a glu-lam on the first freaking shot!
Bitchez
http://i53.tinypic.com/1t516c.jpg
ok; last time slewie asks for pictures,first.
trust me.
Robo,
Power One (PWER) got hammered on Friday, down 21%. What do you think? Solars leading the market lower or will they buy the solar dips? ;)
The NYSE is averaging like 3-4 billion shares a day.
60-70% of that is HFT bots. Most of that is rebate liquidity passbacks a chum.
Most profit selling and buying is at the open and close. Much monkey business in the preopen to make the market look stable.
The market is not going to crash unless retail buyers with a profit motive sell. Banks are told not to profit take on equities - and they should listen as they got free money from me and you for their toxic assets. Even if the market sinks 50%, a 50% loss on a stock is better than the 100 % loss they were looking at before TARP, tALP, POMO and QE 1-2.
So, does anyone here think that the remainder of stock shares cannot be jacked up with 5 billion a day, even not levered up15x?
If there is a 5 billion a day player in the market which doesn't need to make a profit and will go against common sense yhen its going to change the dynamic and run traders out.
If you and others of your ilk ( like me) are still worried then maybe this thing is going higher still for a while. We might even see the dollar hit 79-80 and gold and silver meander trendless for a while. A 30 percent spy gain for 2011 would be.something wouldnt it? I still think we are going to.top out before june and have a little mini correction. I thought it would occur around here too but predictions of this sucker going down have all been premature. Even my topcall on the spy.
The stocks will never top out as long as the FED continues their way, hedge funds will not sell, ever! or at least until one big name starts too, then they all will. Stop looking for tops and just get on board already, did'nt you see the "buy the F*%$ing Dip" all the top callers will be saying the same thing 4 years from now when the SP500 is trading 2000, Free money = free leverage = stocks higher and everything else for that matter....
Robo,
This one is for you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c02XPjD6gY0
Be careful what you chase after! :)
What's gonna happen when housing/foreclosure data get worse again? While vigilantes are willing to play poker with central banks in bond market, why wouldn't they get on the short side of ES trade? Well, I'm just one of them - patiently buying mid-term ES puts for second month now and keeping enoughy dry powder to continue for another six months if necessary - probably even to start shorting ES futures sometime this month. On the other side I have quite a lot of energy and other non-cyclical stocks as collateral for this exposure. And I belive that short side of trade is gonna become very crowded after next european, US or global black swan (munis, debt ceiling debate, spain, protugal, housing data, emerging world inflationary induced war/revolution tensions).
Expect S&P 500 under 1200 befor summer holidays - don't forget that FED needs excuse for new QE round and 1400 SP combined with falling housing prices sure wouldn't be good one.
Good luck!
Theres no incentive to sell. The big boys know Bernanke and the flat earth society want to price stocks the way they want to price them( ie: fake a recovery with dow at 14,000).
It is possible that with Ron Paul overseeing the banks, and the Republicans making a stink with the debt ceiling that the stock market will drop if the banks stab the FED in the back and take profits. Thats only if the regulations get strict. Then the banks will shoot the hostage in the heqd and take their misbegotten stolen money
Bernanke: “You just take them shorts off, boy.”
http://www.wearysloth.com/Gallery/ActorsC/73027-4769.jpg
we feel privileged as the fragile link to life is so precious in more ways than one. But the same position experienced with a dour sailor's chord as living thread feels like insult being added to injury... there lies man's illusion of freedom. If we die grasping for gold we feel life was exciting while it lasted. If we die retching from cold we feel cheated before and after...to the same extent, double whammied.
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same position experienced with a dour sailor's chord as living thread feels like insult being added to injury... there lies man's illusion of freedom. If we die grasping for gold we feel life was exciting while it lasted. If we die retching from cold we feel cheated before and after...to the same extent, double whammied.
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The Yen, and Japan, raising cash to pay for the reconstruction of the country, is already on the path of Yen appreciation and will be assisted in their efforts by the other central banks. By acting in a co-ordinated fashion they will begin to reverse the worldwide race to the bottom.
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If we die grasping for gold we feel life was exciting while it lasted. If we die retching from cold we feel cheated before and after...to the same extent, double whammied.
Locate a dentist in your area
It is a problem when people who are ostensibly European act like Japanese teenagers.
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I must say, living in Spain I would tend to side with this opinion of the Spanish banks
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I must say, living in Spain I would tend to side with this opinion of the Spanish banks
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