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Peter Tchir, always Watching. Judging.
... but there is a serious difference now between price of WTI and Brent. Worth an update article Tyler?
Continues to be at a record. In January we expected this would be the case for a long time.
Less people in the market and more machines that started with pennies of profit now looking for 1/100th of a cent. Time for someone to start designing algos to hunt inferior algos and exploit their flaws. Let the mathematician death matches begin!
+1 like that battlebot tv show - though any algo's that can take the market down will be shut down by the SEC or be told by GS that they are too scary to be in the hands of anyone but them
I wouldn't put all the blame on the HFT quants. Market manipulation by the Treasury and the Fed is at an all time high, and I think that manipulation has a lot more influence on the eventual direction of the equities markets than the HFTs which are essentially direction neutral in their quest for fractions of a cent. Maybe the variations in streaks is evidence that the powers that be have to use more lipstick on a bigger pig to create those streaks, because retail is sitting this out, and the manipulators are playing a game of diminishing returns.
I thought Nadeem Walayat was very accurate in his prediction from April last year::
It depends how many systems are holding overnight. If the vast majority close flat they won't drive weekly runs, and you'd see longer intraday runs and perhaps counter-trend movement into closes. Haven't done this type of research yet though.
The problem usually starts when you start setting the position requirement for the algo. I want to go home with as little position as possible, but due to borrow rates being way over historical norms, and the fact that even if I want to run a stat arb type backbone to pricing I can't do a locate, and get enough shares, I pretty much start everything with bidding. I just can't be short anymore, it adds to risk and expense. I miss the short rebate days, and being able to trust my clearing firm to find me stock, unlike now where if i am short for two days , oddly the rate goes up, and i start to get warnings that i am not compliant.
Tyler post regular updates of insider stock selling and this selling gives maybe an insight in how much confidence the insiders have in eachother. Concidering that ZH is revealing the truth about the market situation the smart money must have about the same ideas but the the show must go on and the shares can only be sold to people who still believe in the upgoing market. It's a steady pump and dump on the background. HFT together with upside propaganda makes a nice tool making this move possible.
Tyler, can you get data where the smart money (insiders of the inside) that has got pulled is going and who is buying the dumped stock?
Stock is looking more and more like subprime mortgages that look good until the truth gets out and a loss must be taken and that is not going to pretty.
They seem to KNOWevery position I place.. EVERY TRADE goes to my stop then reverses.. NO MATTER HOW W-I-D-E it is!
EVERY TRADE LOSES! THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE.. unless.. they see your cards!
I'm out of the game..
Its like trading behind a two way mirror and your computer is the mirror. The media tries to sell the average joe an edge with TA and a fancy trading interface or some newsletter or even God forbid Cramer. I think you only need to know who and how many are short and who is long. Simple, good luck getting ahold of that information in a timely manner.
"Anybody know if KFC is still open?"
Just sick of the Market. HFT, weekly Options and Option expiration every Friday. Only ones making money are those who can trade for a tenth of a penny all day long thru their Computers. The HFT's are the only ones that can make Money in this Market. Everyone else is just a Host. Or, should I have said everyone else is Toast.
I have better things to do with my time than watching paint dry every day, day in and day out.
It occurs to me that the Nanex crew has access to bid/ask data on a fractional second basis. One possibly fruitful approach to analyzing the high frequency algo problem is to use information theory. Clearly the bid/ask functions referenced in this post have very low info--the ones in the recent nat gas posts on zero hedge and nanex are a lot more interesting. It would be interesting to consider averaged mutual information between the bid and asks, as well as autocorrelations for both functions and entropy over particular windows of the bid/ask data streams.
It may even be possible to go over the predictive and successor states in an epsilon machine sense. Anyone up for this? I'm putting together a series of posts on information theoretic approaches to studying dynamic systems, but it will be a few days before they are up.
IMO, HFT accentuates a trend / increases amplitude, due to the fact that, in effect, it REDUCES true liquidity. If what we have here is, as I think it is, traders disembarking the QE2 trade, then HFT will move the market a longer way down, just as it moved the market a longer way up.
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