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Market Update From TrimTabs: Has "Buyer" Stopped Buying?
From TrimTabs, which has expressed a skeptical view on the identity of the disclosed futures buyer before
Has "Buyer" Stopped Buying? S&P 500 Down 6.6% since Day before President Obama Announces Plan to Restrict Proprietary Trading by Banks.
The market cap of all U.S. stocks rose almost $7 trillion from mid-March 2009 through the end of December 2009. We cannot remember stock prices ever rising so far so fast on steadily declining trading volume. We also cannot identify anywhere near the amount of buying power that would be required to lift the market cap so much.
We have speculated that the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury could be allowing a "buyer" to accumulate stock index futures to boost stock prices. Perhaps the "buyer" has stopped buying. We know that the S&P 500 has dropped 6.6% since the close on January 20, the day before President Obama announced a plan to restrict proprietary trading by banks. Moreover, the S&P 500 fell on seven of those 11 trading days.
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I listened to someone on a radio show a while back that said the $7T represented about $500-800B of new money, and at a 10:1 leverage, that meant someone with $50-80B capacity. A pretty big number. Sorry can't remember the source.
Yes they stopped buying after Bernake was confirmed. Now GS gets to rake in the dough by naked shorting the dogshit out of all the crap they pumped and upgraded. CNBC will potray the second leg down as a great buying opportunity and the Federal Gubbmint will switch from green shoots mode to fear mongering hard selling QE 2.0., promising to do it better this time.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
can someone explain how the unemployment rate just dropped to 9.7% when the economy shed more jobs? Is someone seriously messing with the model assumptions? What am I missing here???
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMgidOoKS.dI&pos=1
People giving up looking for work. Either that or "Obomath"...
The numerator is the number of people who want to work and don't have a job. The denominator is the total number of people, employed and unemployed, who want to work.
The numerator dropped by 20,000 and the denominator dropped by a larger relative pct. According to the BLS, everyone who hasn't had a job in the last 6 months doesn't want a job.
9,000 temporary census jobs were added.
There were massive downward revisions for the number of jobs lost for all months in 2009 except November.
A terrible jobs report. Unfortunately the headline number went down so most will look at the 9.7% number and think things improved by 0.3%
It is because of the way that the "unemployment" number is calculated. In short answer is that the number originates from people filing unemployment claims. Meaning, When the government does not extend the unemployment insurance, then the unemployment number goes down. Given enough time, it will go down to 0% as long as more people are not laided off.
I think that the headline payrolls number uses the establishment survery while unemployment is based on the household data. If you actually go get the data, you will see that the establishment survery shows job gains of 541k, not the losses in the household data.
isnt it the other way round?
survey A (households) shows a 541K increase in employed.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm
good catch - i switched the two
thank you bobby02 for giving the correct answer, as opposed to so many others in here who don't know but aren't afraid to pontificate
Starvation of long-term unemployed.
Is someone seriously messing with the model assumptions?
check out shadowstats.com
Maybe Obama decided that restrictions on prop trading should include trading for "his" own account via the Federal Reseve....?
Meanwhile, the latest from the Bureau of Making Shit Up wants us to believe that the economy shed 20K more jobs but that the unemployment rate "unexpectadely" fell to 9.7%.
Beam me up, Scotty.
Bureau of Making Shit Up - Beautiful! Almost spewed on my monitor.
Yes, that was excellent! BMSU should become a new ZH standard appellation
It was seasonal adjustments. Not seasonally adjusted, the rate climbed to 10.8%. January is apparently the month where they have the most leeway to fudge the seasonal adjustments.
LOVE the unadjusted BS BLS data. CNBC should go into farming, with all the sh*t they shovel.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
First the pump...then the dump. Everybody run to Treasuries now, please.
can anyone explain how the hell the bls came up with 9.7%? What the f*ck?
I'm totally lost, and kinda pissed off to be honest.
There's a reason I referred to them upthread as The Bureau of Making Shit Up.
Just saying.
Just now getting pissed off? You're late to the party. Heck, I can barely find a pitchfork for sale in this town.
Torches thin on the ground as well...
Spent all day yesterday looking for tar and feathers. Can't find 'em anywhere.
I know someone with "497 and 1/2 feet of rope".
Totally expected fiddle, I closed my shorts this morning. Just waiting for the short squeeze to play out and then back on again.
This manipulation is getting a bit tooooo blatant!
The emperor is looking very naked to more people now
Man, I feel so sorry for this Vanessa chick...
http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/03/real_estate/foreclosure_deficiency_judgement/index.htm
You own a home like this and you can't afford to pay 65K...I guess it's all about appearing to be wealthy these days.
Greed so thick, you can cut it with a knife.
That's been the story for two decades; looking like you've got money vs. having it. It's all about the pretense, with absolutely no substance (wealth) beneath the surface.
That's where homeowners like me (and the missus) get riled up over the principal forgiveness bleating. I am sure there are cases where I would absolutely feel empathy towards helping a homeowner, but we have not one iota of give a shit for the poseurs, be they Alt-A liars or HELOC'd to the hilt.
She was in real estate, so whatever she made money selling overpriced houses to people who could not afford them. I am afraid I can't feel too sorry for her...
So let me get this straight. When markets go up, it's the Treasury and the Fed buying. When markets go down, they stopped buying. Thanks for the laugh!
"Stopped buying" isn't the phrase I would have used. The money maggots fix the price of everything, they just fixed it a little lower for now.
This is why we got 9.7%. It should be temporary
2/ the unemployment rate is down 0.3pp to 9.7%. This is because the household
survey indicated +541k jobs while the participation rate inched up only 0.1pp
to 64.7%. As a reminder, the household survey is more volatile than the payroll
survey and is not considered as the best trend indicator. As a result, we
should expect the unemployment rate to inch higher in the coming months
"Stopped buying" isn't the phrase I would have used. The money maggots fix the price of everything, they just fixed it a little lower for now.
.......exactly
this is why we got 9.7%. It's temporary
2/ the unemployment rate is down 0.3pp to 9.7%. This is because the household
survey indicated +541k jobs while the participation rate inched up only 0.1pp
to 64.7%. As a reminder, the household survey is more volatile than the payroll
survey and is not considered as the best trend indicator. As a result, we
should expect the unemployment rate to inch higher in the coming months
"Stopped buying" isn't the phrase I would have used. The money maggots fix the price of everything, they just fixed it a little lower for now.
...............precisely
Maybe the Fed and the banks in its cartel are looking to punish Bama for the Volker rule.
Ummm, isn't it the case when many people stop 'Buying' the price goes down?
Fascinating.
It is not about the numbers. It's about getting the sheeple to believe the numbers that the BLS puts out. The GDP numbers were not believed and the following result was market down. We will see today if we are any closer to ending the BS manipulation.
Hey, maybe they want you to sell your stocks and buy their bonds as its the only way to finance their deficit. We are going to try that in the UK.. Good Luck!
Barry Ritholz continuously attacks Charles Biderman. Biderman is the foremost expert on market liquidity. Ritholz is an expert on home electronics and jazz. Ritholz is a dumb-ass.
When two of "those people" don't like each other, it shows ;p
The legendary market analyst, Charles Biderman, was attacked by CNBS on the floor of the NYSE earlier this week. Those stupid fuckers are lucky he even lowers himself to speak to them.
+9.7!
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 530,405 in the week ending Jan. 30, an increase of 28,234 from the previous week. There were 682,176 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.
EUC popped +281,442 IN A FREAKIN' SINGLE WEEK.
I have learned to disregard anything seasonally adphuckted by the US Govt
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20100138.htm
Rock on, Biderman, rock on. We love to see CNBC squirm when you go off script.
The Federal Reserve is a criminal organization. I think they are moving from manipulating the broad markets to targeting certain stocks, like for instance, Wells, which would plunge without being artificially propped.
Yeah. CNBC called him a "conspiracy theorist" and he almost panicked.
Wait for the revised number!
What I want to know is how the "Bureau of Making Shit Up" (i love it) finds out they under-counted unemployment by 1.2 million and yet they calculate that the unemployment rate has actually gone down to 9.7%? Obamanomics at its finest.
GR