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Mass Layoff Events Spike

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In a dramatic reversal to the moderating trend from the past several months, Mass Layoff Events surged from 256,357 in June to a whopping 336,654 in July, a 31% increase, and surprisingly the second highest reading for the year since January's 388 thousand. Actual MLE increased by 21% from 2,519 to 3,054. The primary weakness was focused in the manufacturing sector, where claims jumped from 85 thousand to 154 thousand, an 81% increase.

As a reminder, the BLS defines a Mass Layoff Event as one that occurs when an
establishment has at least 50 initial unemployment compensation claims
filed against it within a five-week period and the layoff lasts longer
than 30 days.

Another indication that purported recovery in unemployment is here to stay.

 

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Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:40 | 43243 Miles Kendig
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This is just about the only option available to business shapers to meet the streets lowered expectations (X Items) in Q3 & Q4.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:44 | 43249 Ducky
Ducky's picture

Yeah you can just see the new productivity increase green shoot from the layoffs huh?

Absurd

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:42 | 43245 Steak
Steak's picture

But but the seasonally adjusted numbers showed a drop of almost 600...I think we should just trust what the government tells us and not do crazy things like look at non-seasonally adjusted statistics.

All Jackson cornHole-worthy economists know that what Mr. Durden is doing here by just wishing away the government's adjustments and giving the public a distorted view of what is actually going on.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:42 | 43246 Ducky
Ducky's picture

Looks like Challenger,Gray, Christmas was right! The only green shoot is the stock market.

Thanks for the selling opportunity to all the buyers!

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 15:55 | 43289 sigmadelta (not verified)
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US, Europe, and Japan currently remains weak, leaving as one of the only real engines out there for

good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:42 | 43247 jefe95
jefe95's picture

I'm confused.  Big Ben just said we are on the cusp of recovery.

What data does he look at it to say such things?

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:47 | 43255 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

LOL

Ben doesn't do something silly like look at data. Green shoots requires looking at the bigger picture, seen through the prism of hope, dreams and more time needed for his cohorts to finish this stage of the looting.

Opps, is this microphone on?

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:10 | 43305 My cognitive di...
My cognitive dissonance's picture

LOL

More like brown shoots.

 

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:04 | 43284 Project Mayhem
Project Mayhem's picture

Jefe, I thought about the same thing a few minutes ago. Bernake is obviously lying.   But why?   

 

We all know that the days left in this charade are numbered.  The smart money is not fooled by the lies.  So we must conclude Bernanke's words are directed at the general public -- the ignorant and television pacified masses -- and the pundits who repeat the nonsense as if it is truth.

 

Then a new idea dawned on me -- perhaps there is an 'external event' in the works.  This 'external event' could take the form of any number of things -- a failed auction, bank failure, a new war, mutated flu virus, airstrikes on Iran, war in Georgia, whatever.  Now, what you do is you maintain that everything is turning around -- keep the steady drumbeat of 'recovery' going in the media -- and wait for this 'external event' to manifest itself in the media.

 

Once this event occurs , with the ensuing dramatic consequences, you blame the failure of the recovery on the external event -- rather than on the underlying structural causes.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:04 | 43296 deadhead
deadhead's picture

mayhem....excellent point.   additionally, the obvious is Ben's personal campaign to keep his job.

i still think obama will dump him

 

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:10 | 43301 Project Mayhem
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I also think Bernanke will get dumped.  It will be convenient to place blame on him, while a new Fed chairman is installed -- one who will be 'accomodative' to the geometrically increasing funding requirements of Treasury.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:43 | 43357 Miles Kendig
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Perhaps.  If things take a nasty turn the call logs and schedules of Ben & Tim could always be leaked along with the non denial denial that there is an active federal investigation.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:53 | 43380 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I think Ben is wordsmithing us:

"After contracting sharply over the past year, economic activity appears to be leveling out, both in the United States and abroad, and the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good."

So does he mean that we will have growth in the near term Q3 (boosted artifically by stimulus) and then growth will start to falter for the next quarters?

"Leveling out" Not sure what that means. back to 1-2% not the 4-6% that the market is pricing.

Kind of surprised that I haven't seen more on his use of double-talk. R

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:32 | 43335 e1even1
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"Then a new idea dawned on me -- perhaps there is an 'external event' in the works."

raise your hand and say "bingo". the axiom ...

Never let a perfectly good crisis go to waste.

and corollary ...

Don't let the lack of an available crisis slow you down. Be creative!

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:51 | 43373 Ev
Ev's picture

Agreed -- excellent point.

Those who believe that 9-11 was an inside job sponsored by Bush and his masters will no doubt see the similarities.  Those who believe that 9-11 was pulled off by an oddball hanging out in a cave in the mountains of Eastern Pakistan will of course think otherwise.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 12:18 | 43427 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

Unfortunately, enough people know that he is lying, so in order to keep it going, the government is going to need to rely on marshall law or other means. 

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 12:50 | 43483 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Indeed, an external event could be triggered to blame all the ills of the economy on it ... Remember 9/11 ?

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 12:04 | 43402 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

In all fairness, one should not be too derisive on the subject of the Fed chairman. That would be a bit like chiding a handmaiden to the whore of Babylon--merely there to do her bidding.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:44 | 43250 mdtrader
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S&P 500 spikes!

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:44 | 43251 Mos
Mos's picture

Once you factor in "seasonal adjustments" it's not that bad.   I wish I could seasonally adjust my bank account and weight...

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:45 | 43252 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

nah, you're just getting caught up in the details. This will help 'poise us for more growth' in fact if we can just lay off 2-3 million more people just think how much we'll grow then! my goodness why stop there, lets raise the goods prices and pump money in, then we'll really grow!

-oj

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:47 | 43256 deadhead
deadhead's picture

Clearly, this is a victory for the bulls.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:08 | 43303 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

They have taken at 38.2% fib, so if they close it above 1014 they will be happy. That sets up an early stab at Goldman's 1050 year end call, and opens up the possibilty of a run to the 50% retracement at 1120.

 

 

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:49 | 43259 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Hey this will be interesting if they want the expiry to go out around 1000 on S&P's. Watch that eur/usd. If that suddenly turns around then you know what's going on!

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:58 | 43279 Dixie Normous
Dixie Normous's picture

I was thinking the same thing, except I was thinking 1050 instead of 1000 because 1050 makes less sense.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:52 | 43269 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Look, guys. We ARE on the cusp of recovery. Recovery is a flatline.

When GDP growth is 0.1% (positive) for as far as the eye can see, then it becomes about levels. Not growth. Levels. The level of GDP. If the growth number, the 1st derivative, is almost zero, then "the worst is behind you", but it's also in front of you.

You guys have got to stop presuming the plunge is forever because it CAN'T be (until oil destroys the world). It can't be for the simple reason that a big chunk of industry is food. Food WILL be bought. Kraft, General Mills, Tyson . . . they will continue to have sales. They are the floor of GDP. (Again, not growth, GDP level).

So stop sneering at Bernanke. It is likely that indeed the "recovery" is near because flatline is near. What comes after that . . . is oil depletion's destruction of even that flatline.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:34 | 43336 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Unemployed people don't buy food.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 12:16 | 43423 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

As long as all Americans have jobs at Kraft or on a farm, everything will work out.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 12:26 | 43439 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

First it has not even remotely plunged forever. We are down less than the stock market collapse in the great depression, but are on the same trajectory.

Second, people need some kind of money to buy food. And if all we produce is food, wht kind of world are we living in? And what kind of adjustments will we experience? Riots, wars, conflicts, it will be ugly.

Then, yes, we will have a steady GDP, but it will not be measurable because no one records black market transactions in silver, gold, and barter.

 

This is the potential if we do not solve the problem (I propose www.RevokeTheFed.com).

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 19:32 | 44321 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Anonymous 9:52, you REALLY need to sit down and have a talk with someone who lived through the Great Depression. The main takeaway point is: "Just when you think you've seen the worst, it gets worse!"
Or, to put it more succinctly: "Things can always get worse!"

The plunge doesn't have to literally be "forever" in order to destroy every remnant of the civilization you know. And yes, it can happen again/here/to us.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:53 | 43270 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

IMO the wave of white collar layoffs is yet to hit. Many service industry firms have delayed mass layoffs to retain capacity in hopes of capturing marketshare in an economic turnaround in late 2009/early 2010. If the turnaround does not materialize then there will be no choice.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:54 | 43271 Project Mayhem
Project Mayhem's picture

i don't trust the seasonal adjusters

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 15:55 | 43274 sigmadelta (not verified)
sigmadelta's picture

Who knows how long it goes on or how high the markets go before these bubbles burst?

good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:58 | 43282 Carina
Carina's picture

It's getting to the point where one can barely stomach watching the mainstream news even for the purpose of seeing how the idiots spin the stories.  Yahoo Finance reported "July existing home sales pace fastest in two years"! while failing to report that the inventory of existing homes rose by the same amount.  

Interestingly, Bloomberg initially reported the inventory jump in existing homes but, now if you look at their updated article, the "Inventory" section has been removed.

Seeking Alpha's breaking news update about mass layoffs used seasonally-adjusted figures:  "July Mass Layoffs: 2,157 layoff events (classified as 50+) that affected 207K workers. That's down 606 from June, but 622 higher than a year ago."

The data can be spun any way the spinner chooses.  Who trusts govt. data at any rate.....


 


 

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:50 | 43370 NRGTDR
NRGTDR's picture

Agreed X 10,000.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:59 | 43283 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

More frequent mass layoffs= S&P 1250
"Fewer bank Failures" = Green Trees
Swine Flu affecting 2 billion people= bullish Pharma

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:01 | 43288 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Boom! Pow! Stocks charge higher (Money/CNN)

"Wall Street advances after existing home sales jump. Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all touch new 2009 highs. Bernanke sees growth in near term."

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:02 | 43290 Chumly
Chumly's picture

The retail and even larger trading entities are pawns in a rigged game.  A casual non-playing observer would only have to read the daily whipsaw of market news to tell you that most participants are patsies.  One day the markets are down over “concerns” about the economy and the very next day it’s up over “hopeful signs” that the economy is getting better. 

This maniacal behavior displayed in an individual would have landed them in the Massillon State Hospital decades ago, but places like that hardly exist anymore.  We now have “behavioral rehabilitation centers” where nuts are given heavy doses of lithium and thrown out into society to ‘cope.”  Instead, the normal see all that goes on around them and wonder if it is not they themselves that have gone crazy. So it is with the “markets.”  It’s a maniacal rigged game.

If the gamers are gaming the participants then the house wins.  The FED and their enablers are a maniacal greedy sociopath rigging their own game.  They play a confidence game with their victims and in all their self-fulfilling grandeur they cannot see their own sickness. And as with most sociopaths, they do not care about their victim’s demise nor can they see their own destruction in the end.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 12:28 | 43451 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

They know the end is nigh, and are grabbing what they can while they can for as long as they can, to hell with everyone else.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:02 | 43292 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

More frequent mass layoffs= S&P 1250
"Fewer bank failures" = green trees
Swine Flu affecting 2 billion people= thinning the herd= lower Government health care costs= 12000

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:03 | 43295 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

The new normal has unemployment and S&P correlated.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:06 | 43298 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Actually it's not that unusual for economies and stock market to decouple. For instance 2007 the market kept on going up despite deteriorating economic conditions. 2003 the market kept going up when the economic data was bad, remember the jobless recovery.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 12:09 | 43409 perpetual-runner-up
perpetual-runner-up's picture

unless you have a perpetually weakening dollar...in a global market (which is the difference this time) our relative price becomes cheaper in other currencies, hence they shift to dollars and buy our stocks given the underlying "value" is still the same internationally...

which is why the dollar will be weaker come election time next year, because a higher stock market is the only hope the dems have to retain seats (people dont realize their dolalr worth is evaporating)...

 

Unfortunately the pace at which this is happening is insane and unsustainable (the dow can t be at 20 next year), so this means it will have to correct severly (maybe the plan is to crash the economic #'s so they look good by comparison next year)...

 

I am rambleing now, but you get the point..

but day to day...this shit is crazy...

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:07 | 43299 zanahorias
zanahorias's picture

It´s a recent fashion in big corporations to fire people in summer just to avoid the rest of the people notice.

During august you will think your mate is on holidays.

 

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:14 | 43314 butchee
butchee's picture

"Even a hummingbird coundn't catch Tyler at work."  Tyler how do you do it?  You are amazing!  Every time I read post here or at shadowstats I want to go buy as many puts as I can afford, but then I remember..... the A-Holes in J-Hole have just informed that  recovery is nigh, or for all intents and purposes, here!

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:37 | 43341 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

fun to read but completely useless blog, considering removng it from my Favorites so that i need to type zerohedge.com every time i have nothign else to do but browse the internet... maybe that wil keep me from coming here

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 11:16 | 43317 Arco
Arco's picture

I think that the mass layoffs will get worse as companies attempt to manage to covenants. Companies are too highly leveraged and are desperately attempting to avert defaulting on loan agreements. Therefore, the only way is to make your covenant is to do mass layoffs. According to any loan agreement, you can adjust your EBITDA by not including any of the costs associated with the laid off people.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 12:11 | 43413 perpetual-runner-up
perpetual-runner-up's picture

layoffs are the new revenue increases...

 

just like the swine flu count we used to have, the daily layoff numebrs quit being covered when it started getting serious...

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 12:29 | 43454 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Joblessness won't help the housing market:

www.truthingold.blogspot.com

Ultimately this brief "bounce" in home sales will run into the problems discussed above and, because the Fed and the Government tried to put a floor under the market, the ensuing next leg down will be even worse than what we went through over the past 18 months. It will be interesting to see if the Government decides to spend some of the trillions of dollars it's printing to become a home buyer of last resort (I say this only half-facetiously because I bet it's been discussed). Let's not forget that the taxpayer now owns outright or de facto General Motors, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Citibank and AIG. So in a way I, via FNM and FRE, the taxpayer is already monetizing the housing market.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 12:47 | 43479 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

In bellweather RE markets, brokers are buying each other's best (most marketable) properties and re-listing them "for sale" 1-2 weeks later.

Check out Zillow in a place like SF, CA. >50% of recent sales are again listed "for sale".

This is how existing homes sales went up, while inventory also remained high.

RE biz (res. & comm.) is the sleaziest biz out there... one need only look behind the numbers for a minute or two to find the clumsiest attempts at pump/dump ever devised.

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 15:38 | 43915 One_Eyed_Pony
One_Eyed_Pony's picture

Why do I think of that orignal Twilight Zone episode where Robbie the Robot replaces EVERYONE at the plant... eventually even the BOSS...twirling his pocket watch chain.

Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN)

http://www.edd.ca.gov/jobs_and_Training/warn/eddwarnlojd09.pdf

1000's scheduled to be laid off over the next couple weeks in California. Tent cities popping up everywhere, state is broke... let's look at the bright side, since government at all levels employs 50% of the working population... Unemployment shouldn't break 50% and what did I hear... California just given a AAA credit rating? 

 

The Sham and Scam of the century... buckle your seatbelts boys and girls, we're in for a hell of a ride on this Imperial Roman Empire society... America's gateway to Servitude!

 

 

Fri, 08/21/2009 - 16:20 | 44043 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Rally!

Sat, 08/22/2009 - 01:33 | 44607 My cognitive di...
My cognitive dissonance's picture

Can't wait for the book TD.

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