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Mass Layoffs Surge In January, Highest Since July 2009

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The BLS has reported Mass Layoff Statistics for January 2010 - the result is plain ugly, and kills any hope for sustained improvement in unemployment data. Not seasonally adjusted Mass Layoff Events (defined as at least 50 persons being laid off from a single employer) surged in January to 2,860, from 2,310 in January, from a 12 month low of 1,371 in September 2009. This is the biggest monthly surge since July when the Mass Layoff Events hit a 12 month high of 3,054. In terms of actual workers, January saw 278,679 initially laid off people. The deterioration was mirrored in the much less credible seasonally adjusted data. Obviously companies were waiting for the end of the year to dump as many people as they could.

The BLS data is charted below:

 

 

 


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Tue, 02/23/2010 - 11:55 | Link to Comment CB
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 18:40 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 20:35 | Link to Comment CB
CB's picture

I'd be happy when everyone is in the soup line? I didn't imply anything.  I added a link depicting unemployment by salary level and copied the title of the posting.  Duuude, get a grip....

Wed, 02/24/2010 - 07:36 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 11:59 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 12:58 | Link to Comment Whatta
Whatta's picture

LOL. I failed math, so I had to join.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 13:11 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Exactly. Since I only have 10 fingers and 10 toes, any number above 20 was a real pain in the ass. After the first few times of asking my secretary to remove her shoes and show me her hands so I could count to 40, she threatened me with a sexual harassment lawsuit. Either I joined ZH or I got sued. It was an easy choice.

BTW, my secretary has great feet. Now I finally understand what a foot fetish is all about. :>))

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 14:53 | Link to Comment sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

Thanks, man!  I really appreciate the tip.

I've been trying to get my new neighbor to remove her shoes....

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 15:29 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

 I've always been able to get to 21 with no problem...

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Ah yes, from the male point of view, the most important "digit" of them all. How could I have forgotten where the real brains of the operation resides?

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 19:29 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 12:10 | Link to Comment Neophiliac
Neophiliac's picture

TD why do you always dismiss SA data? This is no bash, just a question. Your graph shows a very clear seasonal pattern. Ignoring it looks a bit cheeky. There may be errors in seasonal adjustment model, and you're welcome to point them out if you see them, but it's certainly not completely off. It's very much par for the course to lay off more people in January, and you can quite clearly see that in the recurring spikes in the NSA graph. 

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 12:26 | Link to Comment pak
pak's picture

Why adjust in the first place? Intelligent observers would be aware of seasonal factors anyway, and markets will discount them. Statistics is data. Application of seasonal adjustments to this data is analysis. Analysis can be good or bad. BLS should concentrate on accuracy of its data so that its "revisions" cannot be as ridiculous as it happens to GDP data, and leave analysis to others.

That's not even to mention that their "adjustments" only err on one side..

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 12:56 | Link to Comment Neophiliac
Neophiliac's picture

That's like saying they shouldn't do statistics at all. Part of a job that: running regressions to get as high degree of confidence as possible. And if you leave the seasonality in, your regression  turns out noisy as hell: what you didn't model in the variables ends up in the epsilon.

Can I run that regression? Sure, but that would involve me keeping a spreadsheet with this data going back a whole number of years. I don't have that kind of time, but I do like to look at meaningful information.

If you don't trust BLS statisticians - fine, that's your prerogative. But then can you show me a model that works better? Shouldn't be all that hard for an intelligent observer.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 18:00 | Link to Comment pak
pak's picture

Data collection and data analysis are two different things by definition.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 13:08 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 14:54 | Link to Comment sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

Wrong, because Nov-Dec stats indicate minimal to almost little seasonal hiring.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 14:46 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 12:00 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 12:03 | Link to Comment SDRII
SDRII's picture

To preserve gross/operating margins and those better than expected EPS labor will continue to be "managed" for efficiencies. In the meantime, expect  better nominal toplines on lower volumes. Chalk another one up for the incredible shrinking middle class.  

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 12:07 | Link to Comment BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Nice streak of good news today. Creeeeeak....

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 13:31 | Link to Comment Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Heh, heh. And yeah, after that, I get the Sara Connor Syndrome moments, but then I let the whiskey kick in.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 12:14 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

PMs and Dow Down. They have been tracking together a while.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 12:18 | Link to Comment Stevm30
Stevm30's picture

Well if they fire people now, then they can get a tax break when they hire them back, once the "JOBS" bill passes.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 13:34 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Gun and ammo stores and pawnshops are hiring...

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 12:19 | Link to Comment Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Leo!?    Leo?    Anybody?  Bueller?

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 12:46 | Link to Comment berated
berated's picture

I miss Cetin. I can't see the word "surge" without thinking of him fondly....

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 12:51 | Link to Comment Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

I think it's ALL CLEAR for the SPX (yes, SPX) to rise to 10,000 now.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 12:51 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 12:52 | Link to Comment gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

My GOD just hit this planet with an asteroid and lets be done with it.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 12:56 | Link to Comment Whatta
Whatta's picture

If this Obama economy turns into an official Depression...can we official name it the O'pression???

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 13:10 | Link to Comment girl money
girl money's picture

Whatta fine idea.  Psst... we're already there.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 12:58 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Totally validates everyones expectations.

Get government out of the stats business.

Get government out of the bank business.

Get government out of the car business.

Get government out of the hospital business.

 

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 13:02 | Link to Comment Neophiliac
Neophiliac's picture

Nice about stats. Who's gonna do them then? Goldman Sachs? S&P? And you gonna trust them?

 

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 13:32 | Link to Comment Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Yeah um, its called Shadowstats.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 14:12 | Link to Comment Stranger
Stranger's picture

Shadowstats uses government stats as its data base.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 13:28 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Put this government out of business, period.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Postal
Postal's picture

Not until I get another job! I need my gov't job--only source of income (yeah, I know... but for now the fiat paper buys freeze dried food and silver).

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 13:09 | Link to Comment curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

1000 people to be laid off by the MTA in NY today

1000 people to be laid off inthe San Fran school system today.

 

The htis just keep on coming and coming.  Gotta love greenshoots you can take home and smoke....easier to deal witht he pain that way.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 13:23 | Link to Comment girl money
girl money's picture

Kmart closing in Austin, MN -- 1000 jobs gone

http://www.startribune.com/business/85002812.html?elr=KArks:DCiU1OiP:DiiUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU

75-year old Stephens Supply in once booming Fuquay-Varina (Raleigh/Durham suburb) closing 2 of 3 divisions.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/02/19/346707/stephens-supply-cuts-back.html

Although the job loss number is small, going from 55 to 15, I'm posting this because I believe the CEO's comment is much closer to the truth than anything we'll hear on CNBS:

"We just decided that the duration of the downturn had been too long and we don't see any end to it," Carver said. "We just decided it was not practical to stick it out for the return" of the building business."

-- Wayne Carver, CEO

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 16:22 | Link to Comment Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

1) There's a K-Mart still open somewhere?

2) K-Mart employs 1000 people at a store?  See question #1.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 16:37 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 02/24/2010 - 02:22 | Link to Comment girl money
girl money's picture

MMax, thanks so much for catching this... it's Sears Holdings closing 21 stores, totalling 1,000 jobs lost.  that did sound like a lot for a MN Kmart, should have verified.  please accept my apologies.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 13:13 | Link to Comment AnonymousMonetarist
AnonymousMonetarist's picture

Aside from the empirical fact that unemployment levels are as bad as, if not worse than, the Great Depression, admittedly there is an important difference.

In the 30s the labor force actually grew.

Where did you go Joe? A nation bids its' unemployed adieu...

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 13:20 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 13:21 | Link to Comment toathis
toathis's picture

Peter Schiff's Ultimate Prediction, Will he be wrong?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ny5QxZBGJtY

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 13:30 | Link to Comment girl money
girl money's picture

Schiff pronounces it "Barack O-Baja" at the very end of this clip.  Methinks it was intentional.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 13:35 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Not To Worry Everyone:  BLS Has The Answer!

From Bill the Brain at Calculated Risk:

Five Million Workers to Exhaust Unemployment Benefits by June

"1.2 million workers facing a cut off of benefits in March"

"There are a record 6.31 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is a record 4.1% of the civilian workforce. (note: records started in 1948)."

You see without unemployment insurance, the BLS will now classify those 1.2 million workers in March as "Marginally Attached" and no longer unemployed by U3.

See, better already...

Then President Barry O-Hoover will announce the stimulus has "saved" another 1.2 million jobs...

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 16:02 | Link to Comment Postal
Postal's picture

The beatings will continue until morale improves...

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 23:14 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"The beatings will continue until morale improves..."

Moral will be the referendum item up for vote come November 2010...

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 14:16 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 14:23 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 16:23 | Link to Comment Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

1) $3000/hr is not bad money.

2) Given all the overtones of this, kinda makes you think that the newly installed Obama appointees at the auto companies are in so far over their head, they're somewhere down in the mantle.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 15:38 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

According to the MSM the "Zombie Health Care Bill" and Toyota's proctology exam are much more important than these disemployment numbers.

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 16:01 | Link to Comment Postal
Postal's picture

According to the MSM

I thought we were suppose to be watching CNBC... :P

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 16:39 | Link to Comment Dburn
Dburn's picture

Just a note that the adjusted number is 1761 mass lay offs. I understand the BLS is not considered the source for all that is worthy in stats, but it seems like a substantial enough number from the unadjusted number , that it is worth looking into further. It's also interesting to compare the adjusted number to to other months in the recession

You'll find it doesn't really stick out in any manner. I guess I'm curious why the adjusted number wasn't worthy of being mentioned.

h/t to silveroz - DailyKos

Tue, 02/23/2010 - 19:49 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 21:55 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 02/23/2010 - 21:56 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 02/24/2010 - 09:42 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 04/17/2010 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Tom123456
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