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"Massive Collapse" For Angela Merkel Following Today's Hamburg Election As Germans "Just Say No" To More European Bail Outs

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As the results of the first of seven German regional elections hits the wire, the German people are heard loud and clear: "no more bail outs." The outcome of the Hamburg election is nothing short of a disaster for Angela Merkel and her ruling (for now) CDU party. Bloomberg reports that "Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party lost control of Hamburg, Germany’s richest state, in the first of seven state votes this year that threaten to limit her scope to respond to Europe’s debt crisis, television projections show." Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union took 20.8 percent in today’s election, its worst result in the port city since at least World War II, ARD television projections showed. The Social Democrats, the main national opposition party, took 49.8 percent, enough to end the CDU’s 10-year rule in Hamburg and form a majority government without need of a coalition partner. The CDU suffered “a massive collapse of support in this
booming city that must set off hand-wringing in Berlin
,” said
Hans-Juergen Hoffmann, managing director of Hamburg-based
pollster Psephos. “Merkel will surely be concerned now that
this disaster won’t be repeated in upcoming state elections.” To their great chagrin, the young participants on the FRBNY's OMO desk will have to be absent from their President's Day NYU mixers overnight as they are urgently needed by JC Trichet: the reason - buying up every single Portuguese bond as soon as the market opens tomorrow: "There’s a risk to peripheral bonds if Germany is seen not to be displaying support for the countries that are in trouble,” said Orlando Green, assistant director of capital- markets strategy at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment bank in London. “The market would have been hoping that a deal would have been struck already” before the elections." And while German people are just modestly more civilized than their North African peers, what has happened in Germany is nothing short of a revolution to the existing status quo. The attempt to cover up European bail outs with endless rhetoric is over. If Merkel continues the course she is on, she is history... and she knows it too well. Time to be less than bullish on the EUR's prospects.

From Bloomberg:

The CDU took less than half its tally at the last Hamburg election three years ago. The results are “painful” for the CDU, Mayor Christoph Ahlhaus said in comments broadcast live, congratulating his Social Democratic opponent Olaf Scholz, a former Labor Minister in Merkel’s first-term government.

“It’s a warning to Merkel,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Groep NV in Brussels. “If she has to draw any lesson, it probably will be to get tougher at the European level to show something to German voters,” he said. “There is no room for Merkel to come home from Brussels on March 25 with anything that could look or smell like a defeat.”

As Zero Hedge pointed out two weeks ago, and as was widely ignored by the FX markets, the European forward calendar in the cruellest month of March will be a blast...alas, not in the party sense.

As a reminder, here is what lies in store:

March Madness -Political Risk Is High and Rising

  • Funny thing about democracies is the feedback loop between electorates and national policy
  • Policy risk remains tethered to national, and even regional political risk across the European Union
    • Higher risk within coalition governments
    • Breakdown of coalition (i.e. Ireland) can lead to snap elections and uncertainty around policy action
  • Two primary sources of political risk as it relates to the Euro sovereign crisis
    • Stressed states (periphery Europe) lose the electoral support to carry out reforms, trim deficits, and curtail debt
    • Core Europe or payer states (e.g. Germany) lose electoral support to bail out Peripheral Europe or debtor states
  • EurozonePolitical Sound Bites:
    • “We
      believe that Ireland may be left with no option, in the absence of a
      renegotiated deal, but to write down the value of the bonds in the Irish
      banks or face the prospect of a hugely damaging sovereign default”
      • Fine Gael, Irish Opposition Party, February 2, 2011
    • “62% of [German] voters oppose further bail-outs of weak euro members….”
      • The Economist, January 13, 2010
    • “49% of Germans would like to have a return of the D Mark”
      • YouGovInsitute, December 26, 2010
    • It may be “useful for the €440 billion European Financial Stability Facility to buy government bonds”
      • Jean-Claude Trichet, January 26, 2011

Showing this visually:

More on what the first prediction of many coming true means for Europe:

German state ballots follow in Saxony-Anhalt, Bremen and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, home to Merkel’s electoral district, and culminate in Berlin in September. A double-header looms next month in Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Wuerttemberg, the southwestern state ruled by her party for more than half a century. Both votes are on March 27, two days after the EU summit, constituting Merkel’s “Super Sunday,” Brzeksi said.

In Hamburg, the Greens took 11 percent and the Free Democrats, Merkel’s national coalition partner, 6.2 percent, enough to win seats in the state parliament for the first time since 2004. The anti-capitalist Left Party won 6.6 percent, TV projections as of 7:56 p.m. showed.

Merkel’s main European policy challenge this year is getting the EU debt-fighting deal through parliament and “for her, Baden-Wuerttemberg is the test,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Joh Berenberg Gossler & Co. in London.

Hamburg is the first electoral test of Merkel’s policy since her party lost a state election last May, a result that she blamed on voter anger over bailing out Greece. The defeat cost her control of parliament’s upper house in Berlin, the Bundesrat, where regional administrations are represented. The Hamburg result, if confirmed, would cost the CDU 3 seats in the Bundesrat, further limiting her ability to pass legislation.

The Christian Democrats went into the Hamburg vote after a spate of negative headlines for Merkel. Axel Weber, her candidate to be the European Central Bank’s next head, dropped out of the race on Feb. 11 in what the best-selling Bild newspaper called “a blow to the chancellor and to the euro.” Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, Germany’s most popular politician, is denying allegations that he stole parts of his doctoral thesis.

And just to make the calendar even more problematic, Ireland (which itself is facing a critical election on February 25) opposition party Sinn Fein said it would seek a referendum on the euro rescue deal, which would put the entire banker rescue operation codenamed "Dublin" in jeopardy.

Sinn Fein would agree to a referendum on the multi-billion euro rescue deal from the International Monetary Fund and Europe.

Party President Gerry Adams said the country could not afford to draw down the 85 billion euro loan.

Asked if he would put the IMF/EU package to the people, Mr Adams said: "If that's the way of strengthening whoever happens to be in government, if that's the way of putting it up to the European Union in the Irish interests, yes of course."

Yep. March will sure be exciting and likely to conform to our expectations that the Fed policy tool known as the Russell 2000 will peak in March/April.

Full European forward calendar from Knight Capital. Perhaps more will pay attention to it this time.

 

 

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Sun, 02/20/2011 - 17:41 | 980096 trav7777
trav7777's picture

another "jew confetti" moment?

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:08 | 980166 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 replying to the post itself; Whoops !  It says in the body of the article that the Germans are a little more civilized than North Africans; that's only if you don't stand on their toes, or spit in their soup; if you do, you get a whole facefull of what can't even any way be mistaken for Civilized.  Good thing to remember.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:30 | 980217 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

how easily you forget the germans true nature... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2lfZg-apSA see how they are!

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:33 | 980358 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

I didn't watch the video, but "true nature" caught my eye. Am 3/4 Deutsch & 1/4 Hungarian, and in re-build after my break-down, yea these long years ago, one of the toughest battlefields is that fucking Nazi DNA..... 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 08:08 | 981164 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

The good old USA has a very large German component, genetically.  Outside of New England German ancestry ranks 2nd or 3rd in virtually every state.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 22:00 | 980603 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Their women are such naturally cruel dominatrices too. Why the germans practically invented fetish sex and have their own freaking channel on x hamster.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 23:55 | 980708 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

Speaking of inverted gender roles, let's talk about our lovable Republicans for a moment.

The leader of the supposedly tough and gritty Republican party is a watery-eyed gentleman named John Boner, a tender man who openly weeps when he sees a child play. 

Now, juxtapose that against the most famous female Republican, Sarah Palin - a woman who is seemingly incapable of speaking without using testosterone filled, alpha-male rhetoric full of gun and revolution metaphors.  When she's not whoring herself at Tea Party functions and inciting violence, she's quietly roaming the Alaskan plains, looking to shoot a moose.

Now there's some curious gender-inverted personalities! Look no further than our own Republican party for some seriously dysfunctional behavior. And who's the most popular conservative media puppet?  Glenn Beck, another watery-eyed, hyper-dramatic douche bag, of course. 

Please note, I haven't even mentioned conservative, family-first, god-fearing senators who spend their free time trolling airport toilets or posting cheesy shirtless photos on Craigslist.  

Republicans!   They're so funny!

*LOL*

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 23:59 | 980736 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Wait a minute, gotta get the popcorn.

THIS IS GREAT, not even on Pay-Per-View.

Troll vs. Troll!

Coming to ZH Right NOW!

 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 08:10 | 981165 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

How many republicans in the congress are closeted gays?  It's OK to be gay, but to be a closeted gay and anti-gay is uncool.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 22:16 | 980634 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

here's some more true nature...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwsySS2EzgU&feature=related

 

 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:15 | 980179 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

Geesh, heretic!

Nobody is allowed to criticize Jews here. Remember that they are innocent and kind sheep, persecuted for no reason -except jealousy- since the dawn of times. 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:26 | 980204 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I am Catholic... I am charged with baby sitting Gods choosen people... and I dont think a lil bashing is going to kill anyone once in a while... however if it is all a person has to offer, well thats different.

 

People junking Trav.. is bullshit! I say so.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:41 | 980247 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

"People who don`t like their beliefs being laughed at shouldn`t have such funny beliefs."

 

lmao

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:48 | 980260 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

That's not how it started w/ Trav. I'm agnostic, his comments are stupid.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:27 | 980292 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture

This is still hilarious...

 

"I am Catholic... I am charged with baby sitting Gods choosen people..."

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 00:09 | 980746 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

There's always the "Never Again" line.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 20:52 | 980489 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Nahh junking Trav isn't bullshit, I think its a "badge of pride" for him to see how many people he can piss off/offend (just look at this avatar)...  I think he is wired such that he enjoys baiting people and seeing how they respond.  He's been kinda "tame" the last few weeks....

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 21:07 | 980515 sunny
sunny's picture

People junking Trav.. is bullshit! I say so.

Yeah, I agree I presume that reference was to the tome When Money Dies and was offered as an historic reference to the hyperinflation history of Germany.  Chill out folks.

sunny

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 21:55 | 980596 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Lmfao. JW you are such a card and it is even funnier because it is true. Evangelical fundamentalists also believe they are the nannies and certified child care providers to the chosen people.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:32 | 980223 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

Jesus fucking Christ, dude.  Could you be any more of a cunt?

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:36 | 980237 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 And now for something completely different; 100 Kilos of Silver offered to buy at 33.03$/oz. in London; now. forty kilos moved a little while ago for 33.06.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:38 | 980240 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

Are you saying that when you are persecuted during 6,000 years with no interruption (from Ancient Egypt to the Kingdom of France or Tsars Russia) it's always the fault of the others?

Jews have been expulsed from France about 6 times during the Middle Ages. In our country, we are taught to wary of them. 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:11 | 980302 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

Who are you, Borat? 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:11 | 980304 holmes
holmes's picture

It must have been those big Jewish armies that terrorized the poor French.

 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:25 | 980337 Concentrated po...
Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.'s picture

You sir are an idiot.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 22:49 | 980671 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

Hooked on phonics much?

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 20:53 | 980492 Michael
Michael's picture

No one is criticizing the Jewish people here. They are human beings just like the rest of us. I love the Jewish community. They have so much to offer in the way of arts and sciences. Zionists, the bad elements in our government, banking system, and in the Jewish community, now that's a different story. Those people must be identified and strung up by the balls, prosecuted and thrown in jail for destroying the fabric of our country and  world economies.

Someone get on the phone to that fucking bitch Merkel and have her declare martial law immediately. Loot every bank in Germany to buy up all toxic European debt and keep the fucking  ponzi scheme going. That's an order bitch. The Germans ain't getting off that easy. I must have that fucking Germany crash and burn just like the US and the rest of the planet as the zionists engineered it to do. No one here gets out alive and Germany ain't nothing special. What the hell is the matter with that cunt Merkel.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 21:27 | 980541 ehildret
ehildret's picture

I don't disagree with all 3 of your personalities...

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 21:37 | 980563 Michael
Michael's picture

I'm required to have peak entertainment. I can't help it.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 23:40 | 980710 Michael
Michael's picture

Vive la Iceland!

Iceland refuses deal to repay UK Landsbanki deposits
Iceland's president has refused to sign a $5bn (£3.1bn) deal to repay the UK and Netherlands for deposits lost when Landsbanki failed.

"Iceland’s President Olafur R. Grimsson will give his country’s voters the final say on repaying about $5 billion in debts owed to the U.K. and the Netherlands to cover depositor claims.

Grimsson’s announcement yesterday that he won’t sign a depositor accord struck between the three countries’ governments in December follows lawmaker approval of the bill. He told reporters he was responding to popular demand for a referendum after more than 42,000 of Iceland’s 318,000 inhabitants signed a petition asking him to block the accord. Forty-four of the Reykjavik-based parliament’s 63 lawmakers voted for the bill on Feb. 16.

“There is support for the view that the people should once again, as before, act together with the parliament as the legislator in this matter,” Grimsson said.

Yesterday’s announcement marks the second time Grimsson has rejected an agreement designed to compensate the U.K. and Netherlands for depositor losses stemming from the October 2008 failure of Landsbanki Islands hf. His Jan. 5, 2010, refusal to sign a prior accord prompted Fitch Ratings to cut Iceland’s credit grade to junk. Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s give Iceland’s debt the lowest investment grade.

Grimsson’s decision threatens to sour relations with the U.K. and Netherlands after Iceland’s government persuaded the two countries to negotiate a new deal following last year’s rejection of the previous accord."

Icelanders to Have Final Say on British, Dutch Depositor Debt

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-20/iceland-president-blocks-bill-guaranteeing-5-billion-u-k-dutch-deposits.html

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:22 | 980325 SMG
SMG's picture

A common tactic of the Illuminati throughout history, is to blame others (including jewish people) for their misdeeds.   I hope I or somebody can stop the coming collapse and expose them.  If it does come to blood in the street, it is crucial that the true people responsible, the eyeball triangle worshipers, take the blame they so richly deserve. 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 23:46 | 980723 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Identify, names and locations.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 07:59 | 981156 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Blythe Masters.

Names: unknown (sith lords?)
Location: unknown (outer border?)

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:09 | 981376 Husk-Erzulie
Husk-Erzulie's picture

Trav, joo junk collector joo...lol

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 17:50 | 980104 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

Nein, bitchez.....

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 17:51 | 980113 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Merkel is a bankster Neo-Nazi.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:25 | 980203 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

Godwin's Law wins again.  This thread is now over.  Thanks for coming, everyone.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:29 | 980213 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i didn't think godwin applied to neo-nazis. :snickers:

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:39 | 980243 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Yawohle; don't mention it Tinkerbelle; or whatever.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 22:18 | 980615 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Point of order.....attention please... Haphastus et al wasnt comparing them to nazis...the.comments are suggesting they WERE the nazis in disguise. Also neo nazi comparisons are specifically excluded. Only real nazi.comparisons from 1929 through 1945 count. Godwin's law has not been violated. You may proceed.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:30 | 980212 stockoperator
stockoperator's picture

bankster neo-nazi is an oxymoron

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:35 | 980232 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The joo banksters are the new nazis, how ironic!

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:06 | 980297 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

They always were the nazis.

Now how many russian citizens died during world war II?

Now how exactly do you go about turning 6 million jews in the biggest most horrible tragedy in history when innocent russian citizens paid much much more?

Simple you control the money, control the papers, control the movie industry.

People should fight for a day of rememberance for russian citizens of world war II. Just to piss of the attention whores.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 20:45 | 980478 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Germany > Jews > Nazis > Jewish Bwankers

That's the (v limited) thought process here is it? Only thing we know about Germany is from 1945. Talk about running on empty old cliches. Anyone here for a chat on Europe 2011 ???  

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 22:25 | 980645 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The place still looks the same to me. lol

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 00:54 | 980791 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

remember the Kulaks..  fuck the Bolsheviks

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 07:55 | 981142 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Germany is probably the nicest place in Europe and no longer a bombsite. It'd be even nicer if the scum (politicians) hadn't emptied a large part of the wealth created by its admirable industrial might into the coffers of every fuking loser in Europe. Namely bailed out Eastern Germany and every other socialist toss-pot in the EU.

Germans are waking up that their living standards have been static for 10+ years because their politicians impoverished their own winners to bail out losers (socialism). The coming years will demonstrate unequivicably bailing out tossers results in tossers being bigger tossers and German politicians being even bigger losers (of their own peoples money).

Hopefully Germans will one day twig the real problem is a system called Govt, not which party of losers (politicians) they choose! Judging by the big turn-out to turf out the last bunch of losers the penny still hasn't dropped they're simply voting in another bunch of losers

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 17:57 | 980122 RemiG2010
RemiG2010's picture

Well, well, well.... Say good bye to euro zone! I wonder who will start rioting first again? Greeks or the Irish?!
Barosso&Co politically have screwed up everything so badly, that I am personally waiting for heads to roll! – not literally of course!

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:25 | 980199 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I would prefer the literal.  Much more entertaining and helps to foster the suggestion of the return of justice to the Welt.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 17:54 | 980123 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Little do they know us dumb Irish are just about holding their savings together - if the european people could somehow get beyond the fiscal noise and look at the huge monetory interest payments being directed to the european core they would not be so, shall we say nationalistic.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:32 | 980222 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Oh please, stop this victim bullshit.

The Euro was forced through by socialist French+Med interests (their currencies looked appaling compared to the Deutschmark), threatening to veto German reunification unless the Euro in its current form was implemented. The Germans were allowed to have the ECB, provided a structure was implemented, which essentially guaranteed that the Med+Irish could outvote the Germans on any key vote thereafter.

It all comes down to this - the Germans guaranteed lower interest rates for the Med zone and Ireland for years, fueling the good times, while Germany herself "enjoyed" a stagnant living standard. Of course, this was never seen as a problem in these countries while the going was good, but as soon as the good times come to an end, a scapegoat needs to be located.

The Euro was a failed experiment from the start. It became a tragedy of the commons, where every periphery country went on a spending spree. An experiment, in which the country which inflated faster, won.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:48 | 980263 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

I have never denied the Irish did not go on a epic spending spree - however the Irish goverment certainly did not - it spent a heck of a lot of money but it did not create it.

Given that many people thought that just fiscal debt was our debt they genuinely thought that the growth was organic.

People who think Irish administrations of the past have not been fiscally prudent do not know their history - I would argue all of the recessions in Ireland including the stagnation of the 80s was due to out of control banks - they created a agricultural land boom in ireland in the 70s after accession to the EU and its subsequent transfer payments , to prevent losses they reduced the money supply in the 80s creating a fiscal crisis - this time its the same but bigger , much bigger.

As for the Germans - they are a mercantile state and vunerable to outside demand shocks , China is keeping their export industry humming and we keep paying interest on their "savings" - I would argue somethings got to give.

Germany is in for a few surprises me thinks.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:13 | 980303 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

http://www.finfacts.ie/artman/uploads/3/Irish-household-debt-GDP-Jan192010.jpg

From 2001 to 2008, debt/GDP increased by around 20% on an annual basis in Ireland. Given that unsustainable annual spending boost, contemporary taxes will rise. Once the stimulus is taken away, government revenue will collapse, and you will experience deep deficits.

Your economy was built on a bubble, just as ours was here in the UK (thanks, Gordon). Your politicians were too inept to realise that you can't grow private debt levels by 20% annually on a permanent basis. To blame the Germans because of this is frankly more than a stretch.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:14 | 980312 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Escapekey , where did I say it was not built on a bubble ?  - you clearly do not understand where I am coming from..

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:18 | 980317 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

My point is that just because your policians "balanced the books" does not mean they did not go on a spending spree. They balanced the book on the back of a gigantic bubble, one which would take the economy down once it deflated.

An annual 20% debt growth is NOT sustainable, and your government should have realised this. How this can in any way be Germany's fault is completely beyond me.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:24 | 980331 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Also I do not really  blame the Germans - they are but the favourite sons of the Frankfurt crowd at the moment.  - I blame the ECB and Brussels , we were the poster boy for the EU cardinals up to early 2007 - the local polticans are country bumpkins here and they liked their beer belies tickled by EU mandarins - we apparently were doing almost everything right until 2006.

We were effectively set up by the ECB who provided monetory opium into this economy to set up their freegold ambitions.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:28 | 980342 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

No, you were not. If "set up" by anyone, it would be by the socialist forces, which constructed this ridiculous power structure behind the ECB, which essentially always votes in line with spendthrift Mediterranian interests.

Read "Tragedy of the Euro".

http://mises.org/books/bagus_tragedy_of_euro.pdf

 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:41 | 980372 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

There is nothing socialist in being a republican and a statist republican at that - no economic theory has the answer to everything baby.

The world is just too complicated for single elegant theories as there is just too many inputs.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 21:10 | 980517 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

there is an "elegant theory" for Europe, it's called Suicide Socialism which is precisely our course. Build pubic sector Empires, spend, spend too much raise debt, then inevitable bailouts (making matters worse) until final bankruptcy and bust. The usual, utterly predictable sack of shit that socialism and the usual rape in every country and pillage of everybody that's anybody productive in said country.

The EU is rammed with Marxists, Commies and socialists. The French the deranged idealists behind the entire EU project are in truth Communists. The country has a minority fascist corporate right who co-exist rather too smugly with French intellectuals who are in truth communists wrapped up in elaborate presentation packaging. 

Anyway this result for Merkel is a timebomb under more EU bailouts. About f'n time someone stopped the rot. Nobody else in Europe has any fuking marbles left (that's coming from a Brit who has given up on his socialist fuked country). Only Germany has any common sense and financial discipline left in Europe

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 21:28 | 980545 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

I disagree on your last point , the Germans are more creatures of the banks then perhaps any other nation - they are just living in a age of prosperity a bit like the Americans have lived post war but not quite as lavishly.

Check out the other zero hedge post about the leaked CB transcript and notice how it is made quite clear that the Bundesbank owns the Gold and not the German state.

Not that it matters much as Gordon brown gave interest rate decisions to the BOE one week after becoming chancellor without cabinet approval and selling 600 tons of gold at rock bottom prices , also the french selling 500 tons in the naughties........ also the..................................

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 23:53 | 980730 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

arbeit macht frei

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 08:14 | 981163 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Dork of Cork

What i mean by the Germans being the last State in the EU with any discipline left is that at least they've reigned in the socialists bailout theory with some rules. The fact Germany has pissed away vast sums of their industrial generated wealth via their State and banking systems will have no doubt haunt them in the years to come. 

Understand the States of Germany have passed a bill requiring balanced budgets by 2012-14 and the German Govt also has new debt/budget targets. These are both ticking time-bombs for siphoning more money into the utterly bankrupt, failing and delusional EU Project. They simply won't be able to afford the EU by their own new budgetary rules and further, as recession sets in will be in no mood to continue pissing away their money as they have done in the past.

If Germany vetos the EU financially it's 'Game Over' for the Brussels Marxist scum

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 23:58 | 980733 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

There are many forces at work some of which aren't clearly identifiable........"are in truth Communists"..    You are so right in alluding to the masquerade that constitutes the visible political spectrum.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 08:18 | 981170 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Dogbreath

there's only one force at work, the economy... it sets the tone for politics... when the economy is doing well everybody is chummy and helpful, when it sinks everybody looks after No.1 ...the EU Project will fall apart as their economies sink ...it's very predictable

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:44 | 981469 kaiten
kaiten's picture

and what´s the "elegant theory" for US that runs even larger budget deficits and has even larger federal debt than eurozone?

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:58 | 980280 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Exactly what I think.  The poorer nations were sold the Euro as a way to have the same standard of living as the Germans, which they duly did by borrowing vast quantities of money both public and private.  They never did "compete" with the Germans, they had totally different industries (mainly farming, fishing and tourism), then they created a real estate boom, that went bust and they blame everything on the Germans and Chinese, claiming they would have a strong manufacturing sector if they had not been tied to the Euro - utter nonsense.

 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:11 | 980307 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Pretty much but both Iberia and Ireland did not borrow much money - especially Ireland  , it taxed private credit creation - that is the central flaw of the euro zone , both France and Germany were not allowed to get into excessive fiscal deficit so their savings moved into highly destructive monetory instruments such as bank bonds which they belived were safe - even though their civil services were very productive.

This stagnated the French nuclear industry and also created a highly disjointed German mercantile economy which grew on the back of exports - I would argue the German economy is distorted and very vulnerable to a demand shock from Asia.

The French economy although highly financialised now is more balanced somehow although less productive - even so productivity means nothing if nobody can afford your BMWs

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:20 | 980322 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Given what we have seen in Ireland, does it make much difference if the borrowing is done by the individual or the state?  At the end of the day, the debt burden lies with the economically productive economy.  In some ways, private borrowing (if used for unproductive purposes like real estate) is worse than borrowing by the state, if done to build infrastructure.  To my mind, this is why the US is in such a terrible mess, high public and private borrowing both done for malinvestment and consumption (and dropping expensive bombs on camels)

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:33 | 980360 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

It matters if you cannot default on monetory flows that are not fiscal - this non default on bank bonds makes a mockery of the EU 3% fiscal rule - and effectively makes them equal.

Nobody signed up for this duplicity.

If bank bonds cannot be defaulted on why did the ECB allow Ireland and Iberia  go into massive monetory deficit.

I can guarantee you - ireland is a very conservative little island and its economy would not have exploded or imploded if we did not receive these funds - it would have entered a deep recession at most in 2001 , not a depression in numbers terms equal to the American depression.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 20:11 | 980423 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Here's the deal. STANDARDS on lending money were non existent.  But if you want not to have standards on lending then there should be no standards on paying it back either. So you'd best research where you are lending your hard earned money because you just might not get it back.  That's from the Canadian. Just to get things out front here. Watch your fucking money if you send it our way. 

Bank bailouts make me want to puke blood.

 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 17:59 | 980129 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Ireland goes to the polls Friday, as shown in chart above. We're not gonna take it!

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 17:56 | 980131 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

Risk off.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 17:57 | 980132 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

the french of course

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:03 | 980148 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

I like to see the German banks take their derivative losses on their balance sheet - The foolish irish beleived this was a rules based system of some sort and took losses on the banks balance sheets via NAMA and the like because it was closer to a convential property implosion - it is not enough of course but Germany is getting away with a air financial superioty that is simply not justified.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:13 | 980174 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Does Sinn Fein have any real chance of winning enough seats to get a referendum put in front of the Irish voters?

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:24 | 980200 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

No - but don't think Sinn fein is purer then the driven snow - who do you think cleaned their "income" after the end of the troubles ?

However the CBs recognize a organisation with limited war objectives - they would perhaps be better in a negotiating room given their experience then the more convential parties who only care for a matrix of transfer dependent farmers and other credit junkies.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:04 | 980152 Bob
Bob's picture

Hot damn, Irish election this week!  With Germans squeezing the ECB from the right and the Irish from the left, the banksters are gonna be feeling it before long, me thinks.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:05 | 980156 thetruth
thetruth's picture

the latest fiasco to push up the dollar.  right on time

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:07 | 980298 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Yeah we sure needed a lucky break.  A few more of these and we just might have enough time to pull through.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 21:18 | 980529 abalone
abalone's picture

+1

A toast to luck

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:06 | 980157 dirtydroog
dirtydroog's picture

Bad for the Euro? Maybe in the short term. I think there is a feeling in Europe that Ireland, Greece and Portugal should just leave the Eurozone. Legally they cannot be kicked out, but they can leave and hold their own currencies to parity. The leaving process takes about 2 years, but I'm sure the Eurocrats could speed up the process if they were commanded to do so.

As for an Irish default, although I no longer live in the country, I can't see it happening. The opposition parties are just as under-the-thumb as FF. None of them have a clue and won't want to upset everyone else.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:07 | 980160 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

The result of the elections is giving me an erection

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:08 | 980162 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

This is the moist bullish news evah!

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:11 | 980171 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Again, another international political event which matters not to Joe Six and Jane Six.

They are more worried about the latest developments on:

- Jersey Shore

- TMZ.com and Radar Online

- Lady Gaga and Justin Beiber

- The Oscars:  Who is going to show up with a new boob job?

- Charlie Sheen and Mel Gibson's rehab

- The NASCAR cup chase and NCAA "March Madness"

Any questions???  LOL...

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:19 | 980184 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Whether or not it matters to J6P will have absolutely no effect on the final result...

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:28 | 980207 cossack55
cossack55's picture

You forgot the royal wedding.  I know I'm following the event 24/7 and there isn't even any news yet. 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:59 | 980282 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

The invites supposedly have gone out. Even though it's Sunday I checked the mail box - nothing.  I'll check tomorrow too even though its President's Day and there is no mail service in the USA. 

I know William and Kate will not disappoint.

Whatcha gonna wear and get them?

Heh heh.

Pete

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:37 | 980239 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

One minor correction, this is what they've been conditioned to worry about. While many, if not most, may prefer the content to more serious subjects, and thus advertisers demand it, at this point one cannot help but sense that the endless stream of pablum is an intentional distraction.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 20:34 | 980456 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Thomas Aquinas (1225-1274) believed that there was such a thing as "cultivated ignorance", an ignorance so useful that one protects it and keeps it from "enlightenment", in order to continue using it. 

It is WILLED IGNORANCE, ignorantia affectata.

"Conditioned"!!!!????  ... Joe and Jane six pack are dumb and PROUD of it.....  they are very aware of how "ignorant" they are, they LIKE it that way!!!!!! 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 22:28 | 980653 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

I know these people.

No brains, no headaches.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 23:43 | 980714 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Hey!  Thinking is hard work, dontcha know?

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 23:32 | 980700 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Lady Bla-Bla and JustIn Beaver?  Due tell...

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 07:35 | 981138 steveo
steveo's picture

Personally I am abhored that you missed Dancing with the Stars :-)

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:11 | 980172 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

China will support select E.U. countries that agree to their terms, America will be next.  How is your Mandarin?  Bullish news indeed.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:06 | 980294 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I have to respectfully disagree on your china thesis.  They seem to have a bigger malinvestment problem than we do.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:47 | 980380 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

have to agree with the troll.... the more I learn about the gory details of the Bullshit operation out of Beijing, the more I see more bullshit. Clever little bastards, no question, but a long history of shooting themselves in the foot. I thought USA had the corner on the fake facade/spin-doctor/lying/contempt for peasants deal but China takes it, hands down.... I see a pending implosion. Period.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 01:07 | 980817 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

but they have cash..  shitloads of it - and stocking up to high hill with commodities.. so they can play the wait game and bring their currency up eventually.

 

they have cards to play.. we can only force people to play our oil for dollars game until everyone gets up an leaves

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 02:15 | 980933 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

I cannot disagree. However, the whole scheme depends on keeping the tops spinning, the bullshit flowing, the make-work projects steaming & the peasant horde out of the Forbiden City long enough to pull it off. I still smell a situation way overdue for the mythic black swan

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 09:43 | 981313 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

What cash do they have? The make believe dollars we printed or the make believe yuan they printed?

And what good are football sized rooms full of copper rods and steel when theres a global depression? They have enough empty building as it is , what are they doing with the means to build more?          

As for gold , well , their reserves are still minimal.   Every problem America has , China has.    The one ace everyone seems to ignore in the Chimerica narrative is one side has a military that can still project outward aggresion , the other is playing catch up.  

I dont see how China expects to safeguard its foreign interests with beurocrats holding clipboards dressed in shiney suits. That African warlord with an AK47 isnt going to think twice about taking "his" mining operation back whenever the time is right , regardless what the paper contract says that he signed.

America safeguards her national interests the way its always been done and always will be done. Young men conditioned to kill holding guns wearing camoflague. You'll notice what happens when an Arab holding an AK47 asks for his resource operation back.                                                     

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:16 | 980178 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Ireland is still in the 1916 period where the population will give the Home rule parties of FG FF and Labour the benefit of the doubt - as they say one more push will get us what we want - FG is a shoe in for this election but as the elite is dependent on foregin credit for their deposits and income they will not rock the boat too much except perhaps a few sacrificial lambs in Anglo and Nationwide after the biggest motherfucking elephant horse has left the building.

Only after another couple of years of implosion and starvation will the Irish get radical and by then it will be too late to save anything but turf.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:22 | 980187 Phineas Gage
Phineas Gage's picture

DoC - Thanks for the insight.  The impression I was getting was that the Irish were going to send the ECB/IMF bailouts packing.  You seem to disagree. 

I was in Ireland last year and the sense I got was that the average person was pretty disgusted and had had enough.  And things have since gotten worse.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:30 | 980214 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

I will put it this way - they will take cash out of the system yet put forward FG to do the talking which is a strange mixture of Tory boys , social democrats and blue-shirts - its a Irish thing.......................................

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 23:45 | 980719 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Seems like everyone wants money for nuthin' and Chicks for free!

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:17 | 980180 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Merkel is weak and unprincipled like Obama.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:33 | 980228 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

we need more Bush!!! 4 shore!!!

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:41 | 980248 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

We got more bush, in a brown skin.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:51 | 980393 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

more proof of my thesis: it don't make a fuck who lives at 1600 Penn.; the bureaucracy & ptb run the show and the sheer force of inertia will make any meaningful change atempts bounce off the hulk just like those puny rockets the 'mericans shot at aliens' mothership in Independence Day. Ha! great visual, cosmo. thank you.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 01:13 | 980827 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

politicians sit at the kiddie table during holiday dinners and make all kinds of noise.. the money changers feast at the dinner table and have nothing to bitch about, just casual conversations on what to do next

 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 20:30 | 980442 Twindrives
Twindrives's picture

Obama is Bush in blackface.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:21 | 980181 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

So, you're telling me that socialists in power will stop unsustainable deficit spending and bailouts...as it did in the US and the UK?

I never felt Merkel wanted to bail out anyone, but considering the setup of the ECB (one vote per country ensures a Ireland/Med majority in every key vote), she never had a choice in the matter.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:22 | 980194 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

It looks like the Germans understand...

 

Print a Euro out of thin air...

 

and then they owe interest on this piece of paper printed out of thin air...

 

for someone else...

 

does not sound like a good deal to them?

 

I dont know why, it works for the idiots of this country? the germans are really smarter than us... shit that sucks! lol

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:44 | 980252 docj
docj's picture

Yeah, that was precisely my thought in response to this story.

Seriously, the Social(ist) Democrats are less likely to support Bailout-a-palooza?  Really?

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:37 | 980365 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

the democrats? in Germany? do they believe in the humane treatment of Jews before they kill them?

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:19 | 980186 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Protectionism ='s war at some point...

Trade stops and bullets start...

Everyone is really just out for themselves in this world... and when the Germans are out for themselves, they really are out for themselves... I wonder what kool patents we can steal this go round (Oops, or upcoming go round).

I wonder if they will try to kill the Jews again?

Every Journey begins with a step and there is no mis-understanding this step.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:30 | 980218 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Most of the jews already bailed, this time its the musselmen.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:38 | 980369 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

as long as the elite are safe it doesnt matter who else is blamed by the populace... whatever makes the sheep happy.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 01:17 | 980840 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

oh the pansy Jews again..  let them create a country on their own and defend it just once.  The Bolsheviks took such great care of Russia didn't they?  And here we are so concerned of Zionist interests as another superpower goes bankrupt.

 

 

 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:23 | 980196 misterc
misterc's picture

Merkel doesn't just have all the power to herself. She cannot rule without strong support from her CDU members of congress (Bundestag). If those guys have the slightest thought of losing their (comfortable, well paid) seats in parliament, she might even be overthrown and replaced before the next election.

Again, the showdown will take place in the regional elections of BaWü.

If the CDU will lose that election, Merkel will be forced to step down.

(Bookmark my posting!).

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:10 | 980301 AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

Just how can the CDU lose? These are NOT national, they are only local. YES; NO?

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 23:48 | 980726 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Perhaps, but when the farm teams are fulla garbage, the major league teams can look forward to losing seasons too!

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:33 | 980225 falak pema
falak pema's picture

You forget Germany's economy is inextricably tied in to EU partner countries. Enfeebling the core EU ring around Germany (Fr, B, H, L, I, D,) would mean putting the German economy into low gear in terms of export/growth. The worst thing that can happen to Germany is for the EU to collapse and every country go protectionist. Not on, whatever the local elections say. No responsible German leader SPD or CDU in power will change that. Especially with China and Turkey now breathing down EU. Merkel is obliged to be tough. Her successor will be even tougher. Lets see how the summer plays itself out.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:04 | 980290 gorillaonyourback
gorillaonyourback's picture

merkel and putin were in china recently talkin to hu jintao.  germany has been preparing to say fuck you to the EU and the west.  so they are not inextricably link to the eu partners.  they will loose the money thats owed form the periphery countries of eu, but china and russia will more than make up for that.  they have a pipeline from siberia goin straight to china and ill bet more are being built.   Lets hope we can get rid of our banksters in our country so we can start over

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 23:36 | 980706 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Hu's In Toa'n?  Yokel is pootin'?

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 01:22 | 980854 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

they closing their borders before telling their neighbors to fuck off?? 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:44 | 980244 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

What a fucking SHOCK that would be if it turned out certain Bernanke cock-gobbling posters on this website turned out to be paid trolls.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:59 | 980281 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

As usual the government is way behind the curve.

Penny stock pump and dump crews have been using multiple aliases on message boards for over a decade to manage sentiment.

Further, today's elite spammers do not even require human involvement. The computer can auto-generate unique contextual copy and post it across thousands of message boards nearly instantaneously.

A wet dream among those who strive for absolute power includes similar technology. Imagine the day where thousands if not millions of seemingly independent alternative media "voices" are nothing more than programmatically generated propaganda. Want to create a consensus among the sheeple? Have the program spin out thousands of unique, agenda-driven, posts amongst your army of A.I. "bloggers".

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 01:46 | 980896 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

why not .. all the trading is done that way

perhaps music next and then wars?

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:02 | 980289 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

How did bernanke get involved in this one?  I thought it was a pending EU shitstorm.

However as a non cock-gobbling poster I would point out that EU trouble probably helps the USA a little bit.  It buys us a little more time.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 01:47 | 980899 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

you calling for more DIP???

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:44 | 980249 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

This election had very little to do with the European Bailouts.  Hamburg is unusual in that it is a City that has the status of a state (owing to it's origins as a Free city of the Hanseatic League), and this was much more about the local CDU party being in chaos following the recent resignation of the former mayor.  

 

"While the SPD was quick to claim a springtime for Social Democracy, independent commentators concurred that the vote was not typical for Germany, but was local, reflecting Hamburg voters' scepticism about Ahlhaus, a new mayor only five months in office.

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, a polling company, said 82 per cent of Hamburg voters told it they had voted on local issues, not national ones, with lack of confidence in the state CDU a key motive to switch to the SPD."

http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/europe/news/article_1620704.php/S...

The other amusing thing is that the CDU party brought in zu Guttenberg, the Defence Minister, as a popular big gun from Berlin to rally support - I've been in Hamburg recently and his ugly mug is plastered all over the place.  He's been embroiled in a scandal around is PhD thesis, which appears to have large chunks taken from other people's works, hence the moniker, Baron Cut and Paste.  Germans take qualifications very very seriously, so I think this played a big part.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12504356

But, there is no doubt, this is a crushing loss.

On the issue of bailouts, I don't get the feeling people "blame" Merkel or the CDU.  I think they see this as Germany having to decide if it makes more sense to bail out these nations or stand back, let the restructuring happen and see how bad the losses for the banks will be.  The consensus seems to be that haircuts for bondholders is better than currency devaluation, but maybe they haven't realized they'll get both?

 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:49 | 980265 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Told ya so.............LOL

The PIIGS are going down.

All of them. Out of the EU.

Get ready for a NON ME shitstorm(for a break).

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:50 | 980267 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Paid Trolls??? Care to explain? Is ZH now perceived as a Julian Assange type security risk to Bernanke et al. ?? Is that what you are implying?

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:41 | 980374 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Apparently you have not been reading. Many of the government agencies including DOD have personnel on various websites as spin control. Just as Israel is using Megaphone software to skew polling numbers.

Geo. Washington's blog

You Know Those Obnoxious Posters Who Almost Seem Like Alter Egos Of The Same Person? They Actually Might Be ...

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 23:54 | 980731 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Time to upgrade the bullsh!t filters on your eyes as well as your ears!

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:51 | 980268 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

the music is starting to get quiet, does everyone have a chair

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:53 | 980273 gwar5
gwar5's picture

... and PIIGS get slaughtered.

But I thought Merkel get slim support and re-elected last year?  Is this a parliamentary thing?

Are the Germans the new Irish?

 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 18:57 | 980279 falak pema
falak pema's picture

As far as PIGS are concerned, as the Reggie Middleton posts clearly indicated, the hair cut is scheduled for 2013 by Merkel. That's been built into the system. What is not clear is the down side of the current monetary offensive launched by Ben's QE on Yuan and EM currencies and/or Euro+commodities. There is much uncertainty where the speculative tsunami of this currency devaluation will make its presence felt and who/which currency will fall first/second etc... If you have a crystal ball on this you're the new Rothschild of the western world.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:14 | 980308 JoeSexPack
JoeSexPack's picture

Booming exports take some of the sting away from Germans writing checks to Club Med.

So if the Euro fails, & Germany goes back to highly valued D-marks, they get an end to bailouts and lowered exports from rising prices.

The whole thing seems easily fixable if govt's would spend less than they tax. But, as usual, what's politically possible won't work & what will work is not politically possible.

 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 23:57 | 980732 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The whole thing seems easily fixable if govt's would spend less than they tax. But, as usual, what's politically possible won't work & what will work is not politically possible.

 

Only one to say:  "Boom boom, OUT GO THE LIGHTS!"

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:16 | 980315 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Paul Volcker said a long time ago the euro won't survive it's first major recession.  He is being awfully quiet now.

www.euro-challenge.org/doc/2010/03%20-%20Emergingfromthecrisis.ppt

 

Hope I typed it correctly.  Otherwise just google paul volcker quote euro not survive recession.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:21 | 980323 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

crap.  it is a broken link.  google "paul volcker quote euro not survive recession bloomberg" and you will find another.  This includes an analysis as to why paul is incorrect because he made another comment in May 2010.  His first comment was a year or so after the euro was implemented

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:26 | 980339 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

100k Euro short bet seems brilliant right about now

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:29 | 980349 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

The Ponzi, world wide appears to be on life support.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 19:35 | 980363 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Can you feel it?  CAN YOU?  Can you feel the electricity in the air........Actually it's not electricity....it's the first waves of shit hitting the fan..........hold on tight...this is going to be a heluva ride.........

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 20:43 | 980474 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

I think you are correct about that.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 23:47 | 980724 JoeSexPack
JoeSexPack's picture

Unfortunately, I think you may be correct.

Similar feeling as in 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell.

This feels a little bigger, just my 2 cents.

 

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 20:13 | 980427 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Wondered when the Germans would get tired of holding up the corruptgovernments of other countries (and their banksters).

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 23:43 | 980716 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

but first they have to bail out their corrupt government's banksters.....doe dee doe dee doe....okay.  it's all good.

Sun, 02/20/2011 - 20:18 | 980435 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Off with her ugly head!!

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