"Massive Collapse" For Angela Merkel Following Today's Hamburg Election As Germans "Just Say No" To More European Bail Outs

Tyler Durden's picture

As the results of the first of seven German regional elections hits the wire, the German people are heard loud and clear: "no more bail outs." The outcome of the Hamburg election is nothing short of a disaster for Angela Merkel and her ruling (for now) CDU party. Bloomberg reports that "Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party lost control of Hamburg, Germany’s richest state, in the first of seven state votes this year that threaten to limit her scope to respond to Europe’s debt crisis, television projections show." Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union took 20.8 percent in today’s election, its worst result in the port city since at least World War II, ARD television projections showed. The Social Democrats, the main national opposition party, took 49.8 percent, enough to end the CDU’s 10-year rule in Hamburg and form a majority government without need of a coalition partner. The CDU suffered “a massive collapse of support in this
booming city that must set off hand-wringing in Berlin
,” said
Hans-Juergen Hoffmann, managing director of Hamburg-based
pollster Psephos. “Merkel will surely be concerned now that
this disaster won’t be repeated in upcoming state elections.” To their great chagrin, the young participants on the FRBNY's OMO desk will have to be absent from their President's Day NYU mixers overnight as they are urgently needed by JC Trichet: the reason - buying up every single Portuguese bond as soon as the market opens tomorrow: "There’s a risk to peripheral bonds if Germany is seen not to be displaying support for the countries that are in trouble,” said Orlando Green, assistant director of capital- markets strategy at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment bank in London. “The market would have been hoping that a deal would have been struck already” before the elections." And while German people are just modestly more civilized than their North African peers, what has happened in Germany is nothing short of a revolution to the existing status quo. The attempt to cover up European bail outs with endless rhetoric is over. If Merkel continues the course she is on, she is history... and she knows it too well. Time to be less than bullish on the EUR's prospects.

From Bloomberg:

The CDU took less than half its tally at the last Hamburg election three years ago. The results are “painful” for the CDU, Mayor Christoph Ahlhaus said in comments broadcast live, congratulating his Social Democratic opponent Olaf Scholz, a former Labor Minister in Merkel’s first-term government.

“It’s a warning to Merkel,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Groep NV in Brussels. “If she has to draw any lesson, it probably will be to get tougher at the European level to show something to German voters,” he said. “There is no room for Merkel to come home from Brussels on March 25 with anything that could look or smell like a defeat.”

As Zero Hedge pointed out two weeks ago, and as was widely ignored by the FX markets, the European forward calendar in the cruellest month of March will be a blast...alas, not in the party sense.

As a reminder, here is what lies in store:

March Madness -Political Risk Is High and Rising

  • Funny thing about democracies is the feedback loop between electorates and national policy
  • Policy risk remains tethered to national, and even regional political risk across the European Union
    • Higher risk within coalition governments
    • Breakdown of coalition (i.e. Ireland) can lead to snap elections and uncertainty around policy action
  • Two primary sources of political risk as it relates to the Euro sovereign crisis
    • Stressed states (periphery Europe) lose the electoral support to carry out reforms, trim deficits, and curtail debt
    • Core Europe or payer states (e.g. Germany) lose electoral support to bail out Peripheral Europe or debtor states
  • EurozonePolitical Sound Bites:
    • “We
      believe that Ireland may be left with no option, in the absence of a
      renegotiated deal, but to write down the value of the bonds in the Irish
      banks or face the prospect of a hugely damaging sovereign default”
      • Fine Gael, Irish Opposition Party, February 2, 2011
    • “62% of [German] voters oppose further bail-outs of weak euro members….”
      • The Economist, January 13, 2010
    • “49% of Germans would like to have a return of the D Mark”
      • YouGovInsitute, December 26, 2010
    • It may be “useful for the €440 billion European Financial Stability Facility to buy government bonds”
      • Jean-Claude Trichet, January 26, 2011

Showing this visually:

More on what the first prediction of many coming true means for Europe:

German state ballots follow in Saxony-Anhalt, Bremen and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, home to Merkel’s electoral district, and culminate in Berlin in September. A double-header looms next month in Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Wuerttemberg, the southwestern state ruled by her party for more than half a century. Both votes are on March 27, two days after the EU summit, constituting Merkel’s “Super Sunday,” Brzeksi said.

In Hamburg, the Greens took 11 percent and the Free Democrats, Merkel’s national coalition partner, 6.2 percent, enough to win seats in the state parliament for the first time since 2004. The anti-capitalist Left Party won 6.6 percent, TV projections as of 7:56 p.m. showed.

Merkel’s main European policy challenge this year is getting the EU debt-fighting deal through parliament and “for her, Baden-Wuerttemberg is the test,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Joh Berenberg Gossler & Co. in London.

Hamburg is the first electoral test of Merkel’s policy since her party lost a state election last May, a result that she blamed on voter anger over bailing out Greece. The defeat cost her control of parliament’s upper house in Berlin, the Bundesrat, where regional administrations are represented. The Hamburg result, if confirmed, would cost the CDU 3 seats in the Bundesrat, further limiting her ability to pass legislation.

The Christian Democrats went into the Hamburg vote after a spate of negative headlines for Merkel. Axel Weber, her candidate to be the European Central Bank’s next head, dropped out of the race on Feb. 11 in what the best-selling Bild newspaper called “a blow to the chancellor and to the euro.” Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, Germany’s most popular politician, is denying allegations that he stole parts of his doctoral thesis.

And just to make the calendar even more problematic, Ireland (which itself is facing a critical election on February 25) opposition party Sinn Fein said it would seek a referendum on the euro rescue deal, which would put the entire banker rescue operation codenamed "Dublin" in jeopardy.

Sinn Fein would agree to a referendum on the multi-billion euro rescue deal from the International Monetary Fund and Europe.

Party President Gerry Adams said the country could not afford to draw down the 85 billion euro loan.

Asked if he would put the IMF/EU package to the people, Mr Adams said: "If that's the way of strengthening whoever happens to be in government, if that's the way of putting it up to the European Union in the Irish interests, yes of course."

Yep. March will sure be exciting and likely to conform to our expectations that the Fed policy tool known as the Russell 2000 will peak in March/April.

Full European forward calendar from Knight Capital. Perhaps more will pay attention to it this time.

 

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trav7777's picture

another "jew confetti" moment?

IQ 145's picture

 replying to the post itself; Whoops !  It says in the body of the article that the Germans are a little more civilized than North Africans; that's only if you don't stand on their toes, or spit in their soup; if you do, you get a whole facefull of what can't even any way be mistaken for Civilized.  Good thing to remember.

JW n FL's picture

how easily you forget the germans true nature... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2lfZg-apSA see how they are!

cosmictrainwreck's picture

I didn't watch the video, but "true nature" caught my eye. Am 3/4 Deutsch & 1/4 Hungarian, and in re-build after my break-down, yea these long years ago, one of the toughest battlefields is that fucking Nazi DNA..... 

Bicycle Repairman's picture

The good old USA has a very large German component, genetically.  Outside of New England German ancestry ranks 2nd or 3rd in virtually every state.

topcallingtroll's picture

Their women are such naturally cruel dominatrices too. Why the germans practically invented fetish sex and have their own freaking channel on x hamster.

Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

Speaking of inverted gender roles, let's talk about our lovable Republicans for a moment.

The leader of the supposedly tough and gritty Republican party is a watery-eyed gentleman named John Boner, a tender man who openly weeps when he sees a child play. 

Now, juxtapose that against the most famous female Republican, Sarah Palin - a woman who is seemingly incapable of speaking without using testosterone filled, alpha-male rhetoric full of gun and revolution metaphors.  When she's not whoring herself at Tea Party functions and inciting violence, she's quietly roaming the Alaskan plains, looking to shoot a moose.

Now there's some curious gender-inverted personalities! Look no further than our own Republican party for some seriously dysfunctional behavior. And who's the most popular conservative media puppet?  Glenn Beck, another watery-eyed, hyper-dramatic douche bag, of course. 

Please note, I haven't even mentioned conservative, family-first, god-fearing senators who spend their free time trolling airport toilets or posting cheesy shirtless photos on Craigslist.  

Republicans!   They're so funny!

*LOL*

New_Meat's picture

Wait a minute, gotta get the popcorn.

THIS IS GREAT, not even on Pay-Per-View.

Troll vs. Troll!

Coming to ZH Right NOW!

 

Bicycle Repairman's picture

How many republicans in the congress are closeted gays?  It's OK to be gay, but to be a closeted gay and anti-gay is uncool.

TheGreatPonzi's picture

Geesh, heretic!

Nobody is allowed to criticize Jews here. Remember that they are innocent and kind sheep, persecuted for no reason -except jealousy- since the dawn of times. 

JW n FL's picture

I am Catholic... I am charged with baby sitting Gods choosen people... and I dont think a lil bashing is going to kill anyone once in a while... however if it is all a person has to offer, well thats different.

 

People junking Trav.. is bullshit! I say so.

asdasmos's picture

"People who don`t like their beliefs being laughed at shouldn`t have such funny beliefs."

 

lmao

SwingForce's picture

That's not how it started w/ Trav. I'm agnostic, his comments are stupid.

asdasmos's picture

This is still hilarious...

 

"I am Catholic... I am charged with baby sitting Gods choosen people..."

TBT or not TBT's picture

There's always the "Never Again" line.

hardcleareye's picture

Nahh junking Trav isn't bullshit, I think its a "badge of pride" for him to see how many people he can piss off/offend (just look at this avatar)...  I think he is wired such that he enjoys baiting people and seeing how they respond.  He's been kinda "tame" the last few weeks....

sunny's picture

People junking Trav.. is bullshit! I say so.

Yeah, I agree I presume that reference was to the tome When Money Dies and was offered as an historic reference to the hyperinflation history of Germany.  Chill out folks.

sunny

topcallingtroll's picture

Lmfao. JW you are such a card and it is even funnier because it is true. Evangelical fundamentalists also believe they are the nannies and certified child care providers to the chosen people.

Missing_Link's picture

Jesus fucking Christ, dude.  Could you be any more of a cunt?

IQ 145's picture

 And now for something completely different; 100 Kilos of Silver offered to buy at 33.03$/oz. in London; now. forty kilos moved a little while ago for 33.06.

TheGreatPonzi's picture

Are you saying that when you are persecuted during 6,000 years with no interruption (from Ancient Egypt to the Kingdom of France or Tsars Russia) it's always the fault of the others?

Jews have been expulsed from France about 6 times during the Middle Ages. In our country, we are taught to wary of them. 

holmes's picture

It must have been those big Jewish armies that terrorized the poor French.

 

Michael's picture

No one is criticizing the Jewish people here. They are human beings just like the rest of us. I love the Jewish community. They have so much to offer in the way of arts and sciences. Zionists, the bad elements in our government, banking system, and in the Jewish community, now that's a different story. Those people must be identified and strung up by the balls, prosecuted and thrown in jail for destroying the fabric of our country and  world economies.

Someone get on the phone to that fucking bitch Merkel and have her declare martial law immediately. Loot every bank in Germany to buy up all toxic European debt and keep the fucking  ponzi scheme going. That's an order bitch. The Germans ain't getting off that easy. I must have that fucking Germany crash and burn just like the US and the rest of the planet as the zionists engineered it to do. No one here gets out alive and Germany ain't nothing special. What the hell is the matter with that cunt Merkel.

ehildret's picture

I don't disagree with all 3 of your personalities...

Michael's picture

I'm required to have peak entertainment. I can't help it.

Michael's picture

Vive la Iceland!

Iceland refuses deal to repay UK Landsbanki deposits
Iceland's president has refused to sign a $5bn (£3.1bn) deal to repay the UK and Netherlands for deposits lost when Landsbanki failed.

"Iceland’s President Olafur R. Grimsson will give his country’s voters the final say on repaying about $5 billion in debts owed to the U.K. and the Netherlands to cover depositor claims.

Grimsson’s announcement yesterday that he won’t sign a depositor accord struck between the three countries’ governments in December follows lawmaker approval of the bill. He told reporters he was responding to popular demand for a referendum after more than 42,000 of Iceland’s 318,000 inhabitants signed a petition asking him to block the accord. Forty-four of the Reykjavik-based parliament’s 63 lawmakers voted for the bill on Feb. 16.

“There is support for the view that the people should once again, as before, act together with the parliament as the legislator in this matter,” Grimsson said.

Yesterday’s announcement marks the second time Grimsson has rejected an agreement designed to compensate the U.K. and Netherlands for depositor losses stemming from the October 2008 failure of Landsbanki Islands hf. His Jan. 5, 2010, refusal to sign a prior accord prompted Fitch Ratings to cut Iceland’s credit grade to junk. Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s give Iceland’s debt the lowest investment grade.

Grimsson’s decision threatens to sour relations with the U.K. and Netherlands after Iceland’s government persuaded the two countries to negotiate a new deal following last year’s rejection of the previous accord."

Icelanders to Have Final Say on British, Dutch Depositor Debt

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-20/iceland-president-blocks-bill-guaranteeing-5-billion-u-k-dutch-deposits.html

SMG's picture

A common tactic of the Illuminati throughout history, is to blame others (including jewish people) for their misdeeds.   I hope I or somebody can stop the coming collapse and expose them.  If it does come to blood in the street, it is crucial that the true people responsible, the eyeball triangle worshipers, take the blame they so richly deserve. 

Calmyourself's picture

Identify, names and locations.

Overflow-admin's picture

Blythe Masters.

Names: unknown (sith lords?)
Location: unknown (outer border?)

Husk-Erzulie's picture

Trav, joo junk collector joo...lol

doomandbloom's picture

Nein, bitchez.....

buzzsaw99's picture

Merkel is a bankster Neo-Nazi.

Missing_Link's picture

Godwin's Law wins again.  This thread is now over.  Thanks for coming, everyone.

buzzsaw99's picture

i didn't think godwin applied to neo-nazis. :snickers:

IQ 145's picture

 Yawohle; don't mention it Tinkerbelle; or whatever.

topcallingtroll's picture

Point of order.....attention please... Haphastus et al wasnt comparing them to nazis...the.comments are suggesting they WERE the nazis in disguise. Also neo nazi comparisons are specifically excluded. Only real nazi.comparisons from 1929 through 1945 count. Godwin's law has not been violated. You may proceed.

stockoperator's picture

bankster neo-nazi is an oxymoron

buzzsaw99's picture

The joo banksters are the new nazis, how ironic!

Hephasteus's picture

They always were the nazis.

Now how many russian citizens died during world war II?

Now how exactly do you go about turning 6 million jews in the biggest most horrible tragedy in history when innocent russian citizens paid much much more?

Simple you control the money, control the papers, control the movie industry.

People should fight for a day of rememberance for russian citizens of world war II. Just to piss of the attention whores.

Zero Govt's picture

Germany > Jews > Nazis > Jewish Bwankers

That's the (v limited) thought process here is it? Only thing we know about Germany is from 1945. Talk about running on empty old cliches. Anyone here for a chat on Europe 2011 ???  

buzzsaw99's picture

The place still looks the same to me. lol

dark pools of soros's picture

remember the Kulaks..  fuck the Bolsheviks

Zero Govt's picture

Germany is probably the nicest place in Europe and no longer a bombsite. It'd be even nicer if the scum (politicians) hadn't emptied a large part of the wealth created by its admirable industrial might into the coffers of every fuking loser in Europe. Namely bailed out Eastern Germany and every other socialist toss-pot in the EU.

Germans are waking up that their living standards have been static for 10+ years because their politicians impoverished their own winners to bail out losers (socialism). The coming years will demonstrate unequivicably bailing out tossers results in tossers being bigger tossers and German politicians being even bigger losers (of their own peoples money).

Hopefully Germans will one day twig the real problem is a system called Govt, not which party of losers (politicians) they choose! Judging by the big turn-out to turf out the last bunch of losers the penny still hasn't dropped they're simply voting in another bunch of losers

RemiG2010's picture

Well, well, well.... Say good bye to euro zone! I wonder who will start rioting first again? Greeks or the Irish?!
Barosso&Co politically have screwed up everything so badly, that I am personally waiting for heads to roll! – not literally of course!

cossack55's picture

I would prefer the literal.  Much more entertaining and helps to foster the suggestion of the return of justice to the Welt.

THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Little do they know us dumb Irish are just about holding their savings together - if the european people could somehow get beyond the fiscal noise and look at the huge monetory interest payments being directed to the european core they would not be so, shall we say nationalistic.