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Matt Simmons Revises Leak Estimate To 120,000 Barrels Per Day, Believes Oil Covers 40% Of Gulf Beneath The Surface
Matt Simmons was on Bloomberg earlier, adding some additional perspective to his original appearance on the station, in which he initially endorsed the nuclear option as the only viable way to resolve the oil spill. Simmons refutes even the latest oil spill estimate of 45,000-60,000 barrels per day, and in quoting research by the Thomas Jefferson research vessel which was compiled late on Sunday, quantifies the leak at 120,000 bpd. What is scarier is that according to the Jefferson the oil lake underneath the surface of the water could be covering up to 40% of the entire Gulf of Mexico. Simmons also says that as the leak has no casing, a relief well will not work, and the only possible resolution is, as he said previously, to use a small nuclear explosion to convert the rock to glass. Simmons concludes that as punishment for BP's arrogance and stupidity the government "will take all their cash." Now if only our own administration could tell us the truth about what is really happening in the gulf...
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"Now if only our own administration could tell us the truth about what is really happening in the gulf..."
Why?
What responsibility do we have for fixing the problem?
+ 1 for your first sentence.
I am curious to see tonight's speech - will it be an "everything is ok - don't worry - be happy" or will we finally get some insight into what is happening down there (numbers, economic impact (big at least - may be huge), BP's obligations, etc.))
Wonder if he will bring up the nuke option? Dollar wise, I am holding to my original estimate of $1T.
Listening and already - FAIL
Finshed listening and TOTAL failure.
The 120,000 gallons was the lead story on CBS.
Oh, and CNBC Keith Oberman (huge supporter of the Prez) was saying the speech was a total failure.
Keith is on MSNBC. Even the people who want the President to tell the whole truth don't realize that even BP may not have all the info. So far, they have not had a clue. Then today lightening hits an oil filled ship.
Cutting the pipe was predicted to increase flow, and it did. Even the arm chair engineers are ahead of this bunch.
Either BP does not know what they are doing, or they know more than we know. Based on released information, many of their actions do not make sense. They make more sense if we speculate that things could be going on that we do not know about. If the casing/concrete has failed beneath the ocean floor, their actions make more sense. You would want to cut the riser, in order to relieve pressure down hole, even if the near term leak at the well head increases. Also, it would explain why the topkill failed, and it would explain why they have tried NOTHING that would shut flow OFF at the cut off riser. Everything they have done would be lowering pressure at the BOP and in the casing. This would make sense if you were worried primarily about a failed casing/concrete scenario below ocean floor. This is the nightmare scenario. The oil would leak out the damaged area, and slowly erode its way up through the ocean floor. Once it erodes a path to the ocean floor, you have the catastrophe of a direct path between the formation and the ocean. I don't know how you would stop such a leak. It would be enormous, and would be almost unstopable. In the last week, watching the ROV's I have seen lots of time spent looking at the ocean floor. At times I have seen images that look like seepage from the ocean floor.
Bottom line is I hope you are right, and the explanation is incompetency. The competency scenario I have just described is to terrible to even think about.
damn
I pray you are wrong. Nightmare scenarios are only supposed to happen in the movies, not in our nice, comfortable, controlled, predictable, modern American lives. Don't you remember we are able to fix everything, just like Tom Hanks in "Apollo 13"?
This is a different movie. May I see your ticket please?
Just another routine black swan event....
Correct.
The oil is already rising from fissures on the seabed... see previously posted video... it's riveting.
Here it is... last chance
PLease LISTEN UP PEOPLE...
THIS IS THE TRUE PROBLEM THAT WILL CAUSE THINGS TO GET UGLY FAST AND THERE IS NO SOLUTION IN SIGHT!!!
PLEASE VIEW!!!
IT IS HAPPENING AS WE SPEAK AND WILL CONTINUE TO GROW
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xdo0f9_videos-of-oil-leaking-thru-crack...
That's pretty much what must be going on. There's no point attempting to mitigate disaser in the wetlands at the moment, because it's going to be lots worse soon. Otherwise their inaction is increasing their loss.
You are right Rebel, but there is one more thing to consider. When you are drilling, servicing or producing a well, there is always a way to release pressure. (one of the uses for the "kill-line" that was being used in the top-kill operation). When in a blow-out situation, one can't just shut the well in without figuring the "maximum allowable casing pressure", or MACP. If the casing/concrete isn't damaged right already, BP is likely scared that a complete shut-in would exceed the MACP, and CAUSE an ocean-floor leak. This too would explain some of BP's actions.
On a side note, the MACP isn't just an off-the-shelf number for a certain type of casing. The integrity of different formations are also taken into consideration. From what I understand, the MACP is lower in deep and ultra-deep wells than in shallow or surface wells.
Rebel, pretty sure, by the look of things that we are in the "they know more than they are saying" zone.
All the kabuki of their made-for-TV "solutions" only made it more obvious that a massive cover-up was on. Now no-fly zones, harassed reporters, arrested citizens....
This IS the mother of all events that the tech-no-logical era has been breathlessly hoping to avoid. Tellingly, the BP rig "Atlantis" is standing, ominously close and supposedly chock-full of issues too.
We have the makings of an era busting mega-disaster here. The knew-clear option was purposefully injected into the media by Simmons weeks ago, so that even as an outlier, it entered the public mind-space, as did his outrageous spill volume numbers.
All of this, for those that know, smell of media manipulation. As the weeks have progressed, we are now closer to Simmon's number and now he's ratcheted it up another notch.
There was an interesting article on the oil drum
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/24251
Saying that BP has accidentally tapped into a mother vein of abiotic oil, unpluggable.
Then Chevron spills in Salt Lake city.
It's all coming together in almost biblical overtones, and black oil, black gold (ironic handle) is at the heart of it.
Time to take the focus inward.
Outward is all a stage.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
I'm sorry, the very second "abiotic" came up I discredited the entire article.
You got neither. The speech was an absolute fucking disaster.
The average American tuned in to hear what was happening and how we were going to fix it. Instead, Obama gives an impassioned speech for regulation and legislation.
His poll numbers are soon headed under 40%. He is completely worthless.
Futures up +1000
Can't figure if he came off more ignorant, or arrogant. I forget, how many escrow dollars from BP will restore clean water, lost species, ...?
Hey, when all you've got is a hammer (Govt), everything looks like a nail!
Too bad incompetence is not an impeachable offense!
Yea right, I was told Barron's says Matt Simmon is short at least 8k shares of BP. He is talking his book by throwing out some outrageous and unfounded number. How would he know?? His background is bean counting, NOT in subsea engineering and I doubt he spent a day on an offshore rig (not as a "tourist".) I'm not defending BP, BP will be punished, but people like Matt Simmons only make things worse.
If there was as much oil already in the GOM as he has claimed it would be one of the largest oil fields in the world - clearly this is not true. To talk rubbish and try to push down shares where you have sold shorts just destroys the value of anything Simmons has to say.
Simmons is actually very well connected.
Here is a great 5 minute Soviet documentary of the 1966 nuclear blast that sealed a gas blowout in Uzbekistan, baby. The blown well was burning for 3 years and was beginning to seriously poison the surrounding area... threatening the population. The blast sealed the well in 23 seconds.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpPNQoTlacU
Great vid!
Works great -- on land -- with no hurricanes -- who knows how far away from a civilozed area -- and no way to disperse over an area the size of the Gulf. Doing it that far down in a body of water would be a tricky operation. Does mud/silt turn into a nice, neat glass dome?
What could possibly go wrong? (no need to answer)
I'm no expert, Rocky baby... but after about 500 feet of loose material you have 10,000 feet of rock. That's why it takes 3-4 months to drill relief wells. You would probably detonate a nuke deep inside the rock. The problems I've read about include:
(1) There are very likely no US nukes built to withstand the high pressures down there. The Soviets had months/years to build custom nukes (they've done this 5-6 times). Obama is so far behind the curve... oh well, maybe his close Russian "friends" will give him the right nuke... for the right price.
(2) The bigger problem is that with the casing shot and deteriorating more every day... the oil may now be leaking from multiple locations miles apart in the seabed. See video above. This is the Armegeddon scenario. They would basically have to drill 100 wells and try to drain the oil field... which would take years, baby.
Quit calling us "baby". And by the way, is that coke on your mustache? sniff sniff... Baby.
He really wants those BP shares cheap! (I am recalling the news that his company bought BP shares recently).
Is there such a thing as a "Dump Monkey?"
He has nothing to do any more with the company he founded. He has a strictly ceremonial position at the company. He was removed.
--------------------------------------
Wednesday, May 12, 2010 3:30 PM
"Accordingly, we wish to remind industry participants, as well as our clients and friends, that the views of Simmons & Company International are separate and distinct from many of those being currently expressed by our good friend, founder and former Chairman, Matthew R. Simmons."
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/SCI%20Views%20and%20Clarification.pdf
Yes, he founded Simmons & Co but he's no longer involved with them, He said today he's "embarrassed" by the company's upgrade of BP. He still thinks BP will go bust.
London Dude, do you have a live link to his bloomberg interview from today?
I used to work with Matt and wondering if he has lost it.
He is a brilliant analytical mind and his research philosophy is show me data, numbers and proof. However, he tends to have an apocalyptic conclusion to his results.
Yes, we can all agree on that...
Pigpen, it's the same TV interview posted above by Tyler. There was a commercial break at the end of this segment, after which Bloomberg's Lori Roth asked Simmons about his earlier assessment of BP's future and why Simmons & Co had upgraded BP. That's when he said he was "embarrassed" at the company's upgrade of BP, and he still thinks BP will go bust. Unfortunately this bit is missing from the attached video.
Alright you, what is your ulterior motive for saying that? Huh? Huh?
Seriously, I am suspicious of everyone now. I have peeps who live on the coast. I am afraid of the unintended consequences of a nuke. I have also heard the right nuke for the job does NOT currently exist and would need time to be developed. There is no clean way out of this.
Don't mean to be a bitch, sweetness. Not at all. Just feel a lil crazy, like instead of coming together to solve this, all I see are folks with "angles" trying to "play it" and benefit somehow. This is the one little rock we were given. You know what a cutter is probably. We collectively have borderline personality disorder, we are in pain, we can't direct our anger properly, so we hurt ourselves. But all we have is our selves. And the planet. Why this is not apparent to everyone, why we all don't throw down and focus on the best outcome possible given the hand we are dealt, here, now, is beyond my ability to express.
I think the military will have to take it over, and a small custom nuke detonated, like he says. Drastic times call for drastic measures.
When someone is drowning you don't sit around and discuss the water temperture, and what size life preserver to use.
Yeah, but you don't normally use a nuclear weapon to rescue a drowning person either.
IF they do decide to go with a nuke I'd rather they take the time to think it out clearly and consider every and all ramifications before just going ahead with it. It's not like these people are a braintrust. I mean, after all, the ones who will presumably be responsible for nuking the ocean floor are the same numbnuts that got us into this apocalyptic nightmare in the first place.
First let's stop the leak, then let's have some heads roll, and I mean fucking literally. I want a jewel-encrusted guillotine to be built that we will use to behead all the idiots that caused this mess, and I mean everyone: top down left right and diagonal. Company officials, government officials, everyone. Then we spend the rest of our lives cleaning up this fucking god awful mess.
I am Chumbawamba.
I swear Chummy... either you are becoming far more sensible as time goes by or I am becoming more extreme... I really don't know which it is!
We always keep the same people in charge who get us into these messes... but why stop at the Gulf disaster? Think Summers, Bernanke, Geithner and pay per view.
Stripped down to the essentials (mentally, spiritually -- whatever) our differences become less and less apparent and the similarities come into view.
Thank you for that. Replace pro sports and go back to public executions as an entertainment form... really? Chumba, I know you're spirited, but c'mon...
Chumba chumba chumba. If they nuke they will nuke in the relief well channels. It will be 10,000 feet below the ground. Alot safer than underground nuke testing by far.
Oh and MsCreant. Worrying about unintended consequences of nuking it is not a good perspective. So few things can go wrong with nuking it versus them breating toxic fumes and getting rained on with cancerous compounds.
I am beginning to agree albeit it hesitantly... since the relief wells will in all likelihood not succeed in intercepting the damaged well above the reservoir sucessfully as planned. That is the 'expert' consensus BTW.
They may however chose to continue to drill through to the actual reservoir if the attempt fails puncturing the reservoir formation twice in the area of the initial well to intercept and decrease oil flow that otherwise would have entered into the damaged well. Perhaps then they can make another attempt to seal it by modified top kill or bottom kill.
If not... nuke is the only solution. It is too dangerous to let this unabated (but partially intercepted flow) to continue.
That decision will come around October I think.
Nope. Not before elections.
I agree that if the relief wells don't succeed they will begin to think along these lines. But not publicly until after the elections. Unless the poll numbers indicate the public would see it as a salvation.
I am pretty confident that they were thinking nuke when they started the 2nd relief well. Not gonna take much to change the path. The issue is that the government is involved. If by some accounts, the strata is filling with oil because the single wall casing is wearing away and you add a nuke in the incorrect position to the equation.
I am going to theorize that along the edge where you have high heat and low compression of rock in an area of oil saturation. It could ignite, increase fracturing along the edge of the blast and make a bigger pathway or at least another one. In the Russian blast, you are igniting and compressing gas under relatively low pressure. Here you have liquid and rock under high pressure. Liquid will be expanding with force pushing out. Could take days to years to find out if it worked. Disclaimer: I am not an engineer.
And announced after the elections!
You are correct once again!
Actually, I am coresponsible. I've been enjoying the life made possible by petroleum. Huge fan. Let the engineers figure out how to stop this sort of thing happening next time we drill for this sort of giant, deep, underwater deposit. I mean, look at all that frikkin oil escaping. That could provide us jet fule, diesel for tractors, gasoline, and countless petrochemicals. It is awful seeing it go to waste.
If the well casing is indeed ruptured, which certainly seems the case, any top kill efforts will be completely useless. Even if they cap the "main leak," the resultant pressure and stress increases to other ruptures in the well casing will increase dramatically. Also, relief wells do not guarantee anything if, as stated, the well casing is indeed ruptured. (Although they will help)
I see the nuclear option as the current "final solution" to this catastrophe. Of course their are many risks for the nuclear option as well. What happens if further damage is caused to the underlying sea bed and/or well structure, instead of the glass seal they're aiming for? What's plan 'B' if the Nuke fails?...
It is a grim situation, and I believe heads will be rolling in due time.
Next time you are filling your vehicle, think carefully about your proposal.
Remember, this is the USA...we lock people up for victimless crimes and let the real criminals go free. I agree the extent of this crime on the part of both the government and BP call for executions, but they will just resign and go on to higher paying jobs....executions for those who deserve it may sometimes happen in places China, but remember this is the USA, we reward incompetence and real criminal activity with bailouts....
The first step of solving any problem is assessing blame.
BP and the US government are likely opposed to this option for the simple reason that the oil deposit may become radioactive, hence useless for future consumption. Had this blow out not happened, BP´s share price would be 10-20% higher due to discovering what is probably the largest oil find in the Continential US in the last 31 years.
Think "Nuetron" bomb and screw jimmy carter.
Agree with the perspectives MsCreant - I see all sorts of posturing, but little 'all in' effort to solve this, now two months into it. Not sure why this is taking so long to solve but it just goes to show the lack of leadership from either BP or our government. Small nuke would probably have few consequences, but I'm not sure such a device is ready to go, or if they are sure what the dynamics would be since as far as I can tell, we've never detonated one deeper than 2000 ft...
(see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Wigwam)
Soetero (Head idjit in charge) has dithered away more than 2 months doing nothing and put hisself in a box. If he ultimately steps in, the uproar will be that he cudda done that back in early April when this started. He is really fucked and so are we, particularly anyone near the GOM.
Nuclear option - not a chance - if he does that now, the much of the damage could have been averted (assuming the nuke works), and if he nukes and its blows up between his big donkey ears, he is doubly fucked.
He will does what he does best... blah blah, hopium -Its BP's responsibility, we will see that they do all that they can to get the best outcome for 'Merikans, etc...
Its like holding a bad trade when the only thing you can do is rationailize and hopium to be bailed out - never happens.
They have Dial-a-yield nukes now Mizzy... but the dimensions of the devices may prove problematic.
Or we could always nuke ourselves with a Russian device cheaply acquired on B(omb)-bay. The Russians may even be willing to nuke us for us if we can trick them into including free 'delivery' to anywhere in the world in the price!
Why, that's easy dear. As CD has said, we are all insane. Some, much more so than others. But a lack of real, clear "consciousness" permeates every level of our society, top to bottom.
Try walking past the Blackberry monkey or the I-phone champ on the streets of NYC. They don't even know you are there. My wife's friend was preggers late last year, do you think the fuck sitting on the crowded subway seat, I-phone in hand and face, would get up and give her a seat? Nope. Not conscious, not only of what's going on around him, but what other peoples' feelings may be saying.
We have to, one by one, each of us, take responsibility, wake the fuck up, and spread the love. It will take more than our individual lifetimes, but hopefully the seeds we plant while we are alive will grow into trees, and then forrests......
Good luck to you.
Just want to add...when I was expecting and riding the subway in New York, the ONLY people who offered me their seats were Spanish.
Now that I'm out of New York and driving again, it seems that only about 20% of drivers ever use their blinkers.
With all the worrying I do, I never ever thought I'd worry about us nuking ourselves.
Interesting observation. I saw the same thing in my time there.
Three stooges killed decency (made people laugh when someone was getting hurt. Talk about subversive, covert programming). So generations grew up laughing when someone hurt themselves. I never understood that about folks till I made the Three stooges, slap-stick, laugh-track connection.
Sienfeld made it okay to laugh at anything, glorified rudeness, lying and all kinds of strange behaviour.
Programmed lives, such a tragedy to behold.
Lost to our "selves" blind to the world.
Sad.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Well said, Amen.
You too, Steve, you too.
Simmons 10 years from now: "Giant oil-based Pelican-like creature named OilZilla is consuming all of Tokyo"...or perhaps "Simmons and the long term effects of anti-psychotics" appearing in a research journal
If this guy doesn't stop, he's going to accidentally choke on his dirty socks or some other silly explanation for his sudden and untimely death. I'm not kidding.
He's the government's worst nightmare, a man with great credibility and an open invitation to appear on the mainstream media.
how whacked would the scenario be if he were part of it? As in MSM would not broadcast this if it were not approved.
I suspect it's simpler than that. Either he really is a loose cannon or he is acting, intentionally or not, as a trial balloon for the administration. He gets the worst case out there in advance of the government "finding out" it's this bad.
He is not a loose cannon or a ballonist. He has been writing about energy and peak oil for a number of years. He gets on MSM because he was part of the elite. I think he is sincere - women early on develop a radar for BS ;) and he believes what he is saying.
I'm fully aware of who he is. I've followed him for years and I've read his book. I'm not denigrating him at all. Please read all my posts above. I was answering the post above by saying regardless, he's probably being used to pave the way for the reality of this disaster by a government that doesn't want the truth to be known too quickly.
My comment about the sock was to indicate he's dangerous if the government doesn't want the turth to ever come out. Which in this case would be hard to keep contained, but they are trying to do precisely this.
Think 100,000 barrels per day discharge... roughly equivalent to 6 Olympic sized swimming pools.
Good.
Now think 40% of the floor of the Gulf of Mexico a body of water 810 miles wide under a giant pool of oil.
Good. Now reconcile the two.
Experiencing cerebral processing problems?
Good. That makes two of us. Enough said.
ZerOhead
Every time I listen to Matt Simmons I get the impression he's pointing to another problem further away from the BOP/LMR the ROV's are constantly focused on, where the oil is escaping under the capture device.
This last conversation, listen closely. He's talking about the well casing eroded away, the pipe gone. He can't be talking about the BOP with the escaping oil because the BOP is directly connected to the well casing. The well casing is the only thing supporting the BOP.
Why do I always think he's talking about something else than what we see with the ROV cameras? Any ideas? Do you think there is another well we don't know about that is the problem? Maybe a test well that broke it's cap or simple broke apart? We have simply assumed the leak the ROV's are viewing was connected to the sunken rig. Is there something else?
Why can't people understand this?
The flow from the BOP is only a partial flow CD. The rest is out of sight emerging over great swaths of the ocean floor as shown in the my above video post.
There could be 500,000 barrels per day emerging right now as we type.
We are all only guessing based on what they are showing us.
Think Federal Reserve smoke and mirrors. We DON"T KNOW what the true status is but BP is tits up and out of business at $4,000 per barrel per day... do the fucking math SHEEPLE!
100,000 barrels per day times $4,000 per barrel (@max fine) is 400 million dollars per day. Times what 50 days equals?
$20 BILLION DOLLARS and the meter is still running and it doesn't even include the civil litigation damage claims!!!
Are we beginning to understand the motivation?
Where did Obamas Chief of Staff Rahm live rent free people? BP connected party.
Forget about the $71K donations the real money is passed in suitcases, offshore bank accounts, and later from speaking insane speaking fees. Remember Clintons multimillion dollar take from the investment bank speeches? Right 'Applause' for abolishing Glass Steagle!
Put it together people it's not that fucking hard but I'm losing patience here!
Damn... now watch it! And think large large large area.
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xdo0f9_videos-of-oil-leaking-thru-crack...
Simmons is misinformed or lying... you choose.
What he has said cannot possibly be true.
I can't speak to his motivation but yes there may be a huge problem with sea floor leakage but he thinks the 'real well bore' where the oil is escaping is somewhere else.
That is simply not possible when we see the better part of 100,000 barrels per day emerging from the BOP.
Simmons is sensible. There is a lot of tectonic activity going on. Remember Haiti. It is perfectly reasonable to assume there are fractures on the ocean's floor and that has been exascerbated by bp's blunder.
He is clearly a plant. The timing is such a give-away.
When folks are saying 5,000 BPD he is saying 60,000.
When MSM says 60,000, he says 120,000.
This is manufactured Cognitive Dissonance.
Such a classic sheeple control method (also known as SCM). Nah, I just made that up. But really.
Powerful industry insider, known blowhard, often pre-scient, makes outrageous claim.
2 weeks later, said outrageous claim starts to mirror manufactured reality number 2.
Blow hard blow even harder.
Huff-puff huff-puff.........
Something is coming down.
If people really want to do something, knowing a hurricane will absolutely force evacuation, set up a web-site to begin co-ordination now, yesterday. Pool some money, start help-lines. Start to look at transportation alternatives.
Can Vegas be a temporary shelter? Lot's of empty place there.
Are there people who can move already? Evac the hospitals, the old and feeble?
Distribute a Phone emergency response app, maybe a call center somewhere (India???), command and control by the people for the people.
The rest of this is all just tooth gnashing.
I'd help if someone is up for it. Use the tools we have and for once, let us be pro-active instead of re-active.
C'mon ZH'ers, Or are we just armchair blamers? Keyboard activists?
It's a logistical nightmare waiting to unfold. A little forethought would help.
Food and water stocks along possible evac routes, tents, blankets etc. Indoor stadia in every rich college along the way prepares for night-overs. Gas cards for the needy.
It's not too complicated now, pretty soon, it will be.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
You gotta f*cking kidding me.
"He is clearly a plant... Powerful industry insider, known blowhard, often pre-scient, makes outrageous claim... Such a classic sheeple control method (also known as SCM). Nah, I just made that up. But really..."
Duh, "but really".
In regards to oil, a lot of ZH of lately more often than not looks like a mentally deranged mob. Thank you kindly for reminding me once again that this topic is the prerogative of theoildrum, not a ragtag of newcomer monkeys. Go stand on that porch some more, you aren't ready to be launched into space just yet.
Jesus! Christ!
You must really love your oil!
By the way, I don't buy evolution either, so the monkey is in your mirror!
If you consider a circle of 810 miles diameter, the area is
515299.7square miles or
1.44E+13square feet. 40% of that would be
5.74629E+12square feet.
So 1" deep oil across that area would be
4.78858E+11cubic feet or
1.15552E+11barrels of oil.
Top 17 countries total estimated reserves are 1.243E12 bbl, so this number is about 9.3% of that.
I would correct by downsizing my calculation by 20% or so because the gulf is not a circle.
So I'm going to call bullshit on this figure.
Correct... thanks for taking the time to think.
It's a bullshit figure unless the concentrations are in the parts per trillion. And average depth is around 10,000 feet I guess. But since you can't see or echo sonograph it at those levels then how can one say it is there?
It's horribly bad... make no mistake... but let's not get stupid! I see a lot of stupidity here.
Just do the math guys!
Faulty assumption: is 6 Olympic sized pools really accurate? we don't know.
40% of floor: does the Corexit dispersant thicken the oil? Think if you urinate, only you know. Thin stream. If you urinate into a Depends, suddenly there is a much larger bundle of urine going into a landfill.
Sorry - I skimmed and I responded. I have read some of your posts here and I do respect your opinion. Mea Culpa (my bad)
Precisely.
"women early on develop a radar for BS"
really??? is that before or after becoming single mothers??
Before. They are really good at figuring out which guys won't get them pregnant and rejecting them.
smart ones do
I fail to see what any of you could know otherwise. This blow-out was an enormous amount of pressure that could easily have destroyed this casing as many connected to the problem believe is possible. I have to ask why was the top kill stopped so early? Why at 80 barrels of kill mud per minute flowing out the riser? Why was the junk shot not producing the needed back pressure? Why was an inclinometer added to the BOP? This kick took down the rig and I see no reason this blow-out could not have destroyed the casing or blowen out the cement plugs top and bottom (if the top even set).There is a lot of oil out there for such a small reported leak. As much as you would like to play this off as a nothing. This reservoir has 3 BILLION BARRELS and that could destroy the gulf if the gas cap continues to put 13k psi on the well bore. 40% of our seafood comes from the gulf. Small amounts of crude kill fish eggs. Animals that injest crude live no more than six days. I love engineering challenges however, this problem has few solutions if any. Relief wells are not always successful which to me is a very scary thought.
I am not so worried about the fish. This impacts lifestyles. It is devastating to individuals making a living in the gulf, and it is an inconvenience to people who like to eat fish. It is the micro-organisms we should worry about. People argue whether more photosynthesis, and oxygen are generated by the land or by the ocean. Since it is an unsettled issue, lets say it is half and half. The main reason you do not want to poison the ocean is the oxygen generating microorganisms. I can live without scrimp cocktail. I can not live without oxygen.
i agree 100%
That 3 billion barrels would be an extraordinary volume from a 65' pay zone. The kick may have had a final result in the rig being lost, but it was the poor control of the kick and the resulting fire that brought down the rig, not the "explosive power concussion" from a kick at 18,000 feet below the rig floor.
CD, check out Richard Heinberg's "This is what the end of the Oil Age looks like". I am so glued to what is going on, it is hard for me to focus on getting to work. I have to go away for a couple of days, I will be going through ZH withdrawal, I depend on all you ZHer's to keep on top of this!
How did this get on the air? This seems truthy.
truth usually is.
Bloomberg TV is actually several notches above its competition, and I'm not even talking about CNBC, which is on a par with Oprah or American Idol, whatever they are :-) .
Heck, you can even e-mail Matt Miller or Carol Massar while they're on the air, and they will reply to your message within minutes, often taking note of what you suggested....
You should check out bnn.ca especially if you are interested in commodities - Canadian financial network and sometimes it is pretty good
I agree. That white dude that comes on every weekday around 3 or 4 (don't know his name) isn't afraid to ask more direct questions and call people out. Sometimes when he gets a chance, he'll quickly mention zerohedge. I've heard him mention it 3 times and the last time he referenced zerohedge (out of nowhere) he followed up with "I love that site." I have no doubt he's a member here.
Also funny about this guy is he'll randomly say or ask things that go against the norm for most mainstream media anchors. A few weeks ago, some really positive news came out on a stock and the stock moved up to something like 10% and immediately he said "SELL ON THE NEWS." Then the woman, Julia Hymen (ha, I remembered her name) said we've gotta take a quick break and he quickly says "sell on the news!"
Whenever he gets someone like Marc Faber on, you can tell he's actually listening to what the person is saying. Other times, he's just kinda there listening, but doing so kinda passively, unless someone is a real jerk-off in which case, he starts asking serious unscripted questions. He never voices an opinion but he does his best to help viewers form their own. I can't say that for any other large news network.
Yea, well, what about this?
http://rense.com/general91/oilor.htm
This is the "deleted" article I mentioned in an earlier blog.
Holy shit!
No shit.
+100,000 bpd on the holy shit.
Top scientists and the military must get on this now. Its time to stop fucking around, and do what must be done.
I agree my friend. As goes the oceans, so goes the world.
Eh. Seems bullshitty to me.
I am Chumbawamba.
Huge indication this article is false: postulation of a 'steam explosion' type event several miles below the ground, and at only 400F. Please consult your handy phase diagram for water, you cannot make water vapor at ANY temperature if the pressure is above about ~20MPa (~3000psi). The pressures down there are far greater.
Ed
Hey now, in this post modern age everyone is entitled their own physics.
I personally use the physics from Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon because it's asthetically pleasing.
Oh well gotta go climb some air stairs.
call me hyperbolic, chicken little, i still say this is a self-inflicted extintction level event. along the same lines as de-forestation, species loss, water eutrophication, this event is the culminating apotheosis of the fifth extiction. This caused by one species on an entire planet and itself in one fell swoop. I urge everyone to read this piece below: "the end of the wild" b y stephen m meyer (deceased) former mit polisci professor. it's his short book in article format unabridged. I will never forget the first chapter, to the effect of " the course for evolution on this planet for the next hundred million years has been set by human action...the 'extinction crisis' and the 'race' to save the composition, structure, and organization of biodiversity as it exists today is over, and we have lost. This is not the wide-eyed prophecy of radical Earth First! activists or the doom-and-gloom tale of corporate environmentalists trying to boost fundraising. It is the story that is emerging from the growing mountain of scientific papers that have been published in prestigious scientific journals such as Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences over the past decade." he says we will have 3 types of animals on earth going forward: weed species that ride our coat-tails like roaches, pidgeons, rats and dogs, ghost species, rarely seen in the wild like the himalayan leopard and relic species that exist only due to active human intervention. like pandas in zoos. read it. disseminate it. it's a brilliant macro treatise.
http://www.zcommunications.org/end-of-the-wild-by-stephen-m-meyer
Homo sapiens res publica, the common slimy politician, pretty much disproves intelligent design, at least we can put that debate to rest.
We are a pesky invasive weed species.
The only way to stop this is to bomb Iran...
LOL
Now there's a man who doesn't wish to waste a perfectly good crisis on the GOM. :>)
God, please reach down here and pinch my left buttcheek so I know I'M NOT DREAMING!!!
I am pinching your right buttcheek. Now what?
Is all that you see or seem, butt a dream within a dream?
As you stand amidst the roar
Of an oil tormented shore
As you grasp within your hand
Grains of the blackened sand
Bid adieu, and go to sleep?
Go brain dead with Obama's sheep?
While we weep-- while we weep?
Oh God can we not grasp
The oil with a tighter clasp?
Oh can we not save
Ourselves from a hydro-carbon grave?
Is all that we see or seem
Butt a dream, within a dream?
Shout out to Edgar Allan Poe for the assist.
No I think this was deleted because of this.
http://icanhascheezburger.com/2009/09/07/funny-pictures-request-cause-it...
You non technical types are great.. The well was contained, so that means the "shut in" pressure was 10, 800 psi. The pressure limits of existing materials (see bulk modulus) is about 30,000 psi when assuming it is about 400 degrees also.
If those pressures existed on the bottom of a 9-5/8" concrete plug, the whole string and casting would be launched.
Turd, I like most your posts, but trust- neither of these stories are possible.
AssFire... your logic is like a torch in the darkness... a shining light unto the lost masses.
A Blue Angel of reason.
No doubt powered by your own biological methane production system.
Good job!
Good stuff, guys. This is why ZH kicks ass.
Plus, the: " The oil along with the gasses, including benzene and many other toxins, is deleting the oxygen in the water."
Benzene 'deleting' oxygen? LOL Everyone knows benzene rm_-R's oxygen.
Oh yeah? Then explain how that button holds...
p. 28 of 53 is the money shot, worst case scenario according to BP was 162k barrels per day.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/29/gulf-oil-spill-exceeds-bp_n_556798.html
This is just like the sinking of the Titanic. Keep the orchestra playing... everything is under control. What a fucking mess.
WTF?
James P. Wickstrom:
"He preaches what he refers to as Two Seedline Racial Covenant Identity, an ideology which among other things, postulates that the Caucasian race is the only race made in the image of God, and thus is the only racial group possessing a soul"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Wickstrom
Turd is this the same guy from your link?
.
Turd, I stopped reading the article when I got to ... " water will be vaporized and turned into steam, creating an enormous amount of force, lifting the Gulf floor"...
Water will not turn to steam under intense pressure...it simply becomes super heated water, like hydrothermal vents...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFHtVRKoaUM&feature=related
Some of this makes no sense, but some of it is really right on. I was wondering why the stuff coming out of the BOP appears to have different colors. The answer is LOTS of mud and debris is coming up with the oil. This means the casing is probably gone, as Matt Simmons says. If the BOP and whatever is left of the casing is being eroded as this article suggests, then it may fail at any time leaving an open hole, that is constantly getting larger, and spewing ever more oil, until the pressure equalizes, which could be years.
His estimate of 50,000 to 100,000 psi at the rig seems a little high, but the nominal pressure due to the weight 18,000 ft of rock is at least 25,000 lbs/si, so perhaps additional geological pressure is a feature of this well, and may have caused the blow-out in the first place.
The size of the plumes he quotes don't seem right, either. Maryland and Delaware together are a little over 10000 sq mi. of land area, or a 100 mile square. A 10,000 sq mi plume several meters thick that is just 1% oil, would require MANY MILLIONS of barrels per day over 60 days. So maybe its smaller, more dilute, or not as thick.
While that number is clearly not correct at the BOP, this thing could have blown a secondary leak through sub-surface rock that has no casing to the oil field below. This may have happened A LONG TIME AGO, and BP was actually trying to stop the leak, not drill a producing well. That's the only way that much oil could have leaked. Scary thought.
As for water getting into the oil field and creating steam, you have remember the pressures down there. Water boils at 212F at one atmosphere, but at 23,000psi its MUCH higher than 400 degrees. In fact its 400F at just a few 100 psi. So no Tsunami.
Also the idea that all these fields are connected is nonsense. There are hundreds or thousands of small fields at different depths cut off by faults and shifting strata.
When you consider that 10,000s of offshore wells have been drilled without a significant incident, you really have to wonder what the hell happened here. I am beginning to think this is not what we've told at all.
http://gulfblog.uga.edu/
"One of the strangest things about these deepwater plumes we’ve been tracking is that we see a strong CDOM signal but there’s been no visible oil in the deepwater."
Read the folks who are studying the plumes. The oil is dispersed so finely that you cannot see it with the naked eye. Read some of the old articles to learn why this is so.
Director of R&D at a different oil services company:
"Finally the estimate is approaching 60,000. I've been saying since day 1 that the rate had to be 60K minimum if not as high 90K. The simple reason is that this well was drilled over a year ago. Then temporarily plugged and capped while tests were done to assure the high flow rate conditions were present. BP would not have entered the "well completion" phase (when the accident occurred) unless it was sure the flow rates were at least 60k-- a very marginal rate if they were going to make money on this project. "
NOT what Obama will be saying tonight.
large diaspora imminent!
........ Chalk another one up for Cliff High @ Half Past Human ?
Yes. Clif predicted something very close months ago. In my view, this web bot hit is a bullseye.
Tonight the highlights of the speech(from the leaked text):
- Do not, I repeat, do not smoke on oil covered beaches as they are flammable
- BP is not a campaign contributor (any longer)
- Britain is ruled by a female Satan
- Louisiana is a great place to visit. Jiffy Lube is running Gulf of Mexico discounts and specials
- The Seafood from China is safe to eat at a Pensacola restaurant
- The Gulf will be restored to pre-Katrina condition (after Obama runs the nation back into the Stone Age or pre-colonial times)
- All of the fisherman will be compensated (Or offered jobs in internment camps)
- Gasoline will be banned by 2014
- Dolphins are evil and must be destroyed as they make me look bad on the beaches
- Britain is ruled by a female Satan (and she's my 9th cousin), which makes me a minor devil or demon.
VERY minor! :>)
I want to donate my kidney to Gary Brooks Faulkner.
You know whats going to be REALLY FUNNY?
Buying BP stock (Bank of UK) after the dumpsville program is complete will make you a millionaire. Buying gold at 1230.00 will make you a poor man. And yet after a trillion words on ZH, the bugs will still be staggering around asking: "How do you protect your wealth?" Ans: Buy Gold....
Get a life.
I would suggest he get a death instead.
I am Chumbawamba.
Ms email me at captainmyrickATTTyahooDOTTTcom
I am all the way on the inside on this one but don't care to get into a bunch of newskool ZH bickering.
No,no,no,no,no. Follow the Bubblevision formula. I swear, one day, per Cramer and his friends WaMu stock will come back.
Seriously.
Maybe.
A little.
Whatever, Leo.
The tell in your moniker is "starving"
Simmons has jumped the oil covered shark.
I keep hearing this small nuclear device would work because the russians used it and it worked.
Now, if they did, was it also a high pressure well and a similar rock formation? What is the chance that it'll make it worse, like really fucking up the Gulf for good?
Well if what the article that Turd posted is true a nuke could blow the other wells in the gulf. Wow.
You really should read theoildrum.com for talk about the GoM oil problem, not ZH. Industry experts there have analyzed all of this stuff weeks ago. Search the site on key words and you will find lots of good writing. Their conclusion is that the geology of the gulf floor (seabed substrate) is such that it would likely shatter from a nuke and create multiple escape routes for the oil - even if the original well gets sealed.
Oh F---
Well that would be the BIG E-level event now wouldn't it.
This particular solution reminds me of a story:
A double-decker bus gets stuck under a bridge that's about 2 inches lower than the bus is high -- people gather around and suggest solutions like towing the bus out, raising the bridge, dismantling the bridge, etc. This goes on until a small boy suggests LETTING THE AIR OUT OF THE TIRES OF THE BUS!
There are perfectly rational and feasible soulutions out there that do NOT involve nuclear weapons folks, keep looking PLEASE!
For the GoM to be really oily for a long while 40k bbl/day will do just fine.
Just remember who gave this rig an award gang:
OBAMA LIED
PELICANS DIED
LOL!!
The NOAA vessel TJ is their best diving ship in the Atlantic fleet. Some more digging for what they found is probably already overdue... CB
I'm afraied the Gulf is already really fucked up for good