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Matt Simmons Revises Leak Estimate To 120,000 Barrels Per Day, Believes Oil Covers 40% Of Gulf Beneath The Surface
Matt Simmons was on Bloomberg earlier, adding some additional perspective to his original appearance on the station, in which he initially endorsed the nuclear option as the only viable way to resolve the oil spill. Simmons refutes even the latest oil spill estimate of 45,000-60,000 barrels per day, and in quoting research by the Thomas Jefferson research vessel which was compiled late on Sunday, quantifies the leak at 120,000 bpd. What is scarier is that according to the Jefferson the oil lake underneath the surface of the water could be covering up to 40% of the entire Gulf of Mexico. Simmons also says that as the leak has no casing, a relief well will not work, and the only possible resolution is, as he said previously, to use a small nuclear explosion to convert the rock to glass. Simmons concludes that as punishment for BP's arrogance and stupidity the government "will take all their cash." Now if only our own administration could tell us the truth about what is really happening in the gulf...
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How many Federal Reserve Notes does it take to get a new Gulf?
Tell Obama to call Ben, he'll fix it. Ben thinks an oil leak is like Quantitative "Easing."
Well I guess theoretically if Ben dropped enough FRNs from helicopters they could soak up a lot of that oil. Probably be more useful than whatever they actually come up with.
Now who ever heard of being 'fucked up for good?'
h/t Benny Hill ;)
I don't know why some old men fade away without incident and others like him feel the need to thrust themselves to the forefront without credible creditentials.
Even the talk of the BOP tilting over are way overblown, yes there is a leak in a balooned section of casing 1000 ft below the sea floor, but the leakage is very low due to the fact the pressure sending it laterally through the formation is only equivalent to the pressure drop in pushing the oil the final 1000ft of pipe. The pipe is fed at the formation at 9.5inches and at this point the pipe is 20 inches. They will need to drill 2 relief wells intersecting underneath the 1000 ft point, considering the minimum drill angle, this means they will have to drill the relief wells a little farther out than originally intended- no big deal. One relief well will now be used to do the concrete work since the existing casing is damaged, while the the other relief well and existing well reduce the well's pressure.
BP & GS just "doing God's work"...
Not sure what you said ma'am, but you have my full attention.
Don't forget your bournelli mechanics. As the oil rises through the pipe it slows down. The oil moves what roughly 13 times faster through the 10 inch pipe than it moves through the 36 inch pipe. The bournelli effect allows the lighter faster moving gasses to create a suction behind it and help self pump the heavier oil out.
Bournelli affect is sort of like thermodynics. But instead of pressure being related to temperature. It's related to speed and you can trade speed for pressure and pressure for speed instead of pressure for temperature or temperature for pressure.
Close but at least you are trying.
BOP will tilt. It is situated on top of a 300 foot long 36 inch casing not the sea floor.. That piece is not cemented in because it basically sits in sand and gravel there. When he oil flow ncreases outside the well casing as it escapes from 1000 feet down this loosely supportive material wiil be 'washed' away.
The second strand is the 22 inch casing. It is cemented down from this point to around 1,000 feet with 'extra fucking fluffy' Haliburton cement (which failed) that was ordered by a new kid working the rig for BP. A major breach problem exists is at the point where this casing is connected to the next section which I believe is 18 inches in diameter and extends down over 3,000 feet below seabed. After that who the fuck knows and it is probably all severely compromised structurally anyway.
The intercept point for the two wells will be 13,000 feet down below the seabed just above the reservoir cap rock formation.
They will almost certainly fail in their attempt to seal the well by bottom kill unless the volume of oil flow can be reduced by successful interception or natural reservoir depletion.
It is a 'Hail Mary' pass attempt with no time left on the clock..
I'm glad I know someone who knows everything.
p.s. it's tilting.
Can't we just stuff Cheney down the hole?
That would just be more Dicking around.
+1000
Awake early this morning are we... and with a clearly functioning brain to boot!
Great comment BTW!
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6609
The Oil Drum has good article on this very issue.
"hose values are currently at around 15,500 bd. BP is currently planning on additional capture this week of up to another 10,000 bd, and preparing for a worst case scenario with a flow rate of 80,000 bd. These numbers vary a lot, and yet they could all be correct."
Talk about a drop in real estate values !
PERMANENTLY !
Oh here goes, I usually can't stand to watch moomoo talking from the chief, I'll make an exception this one time.
Ruth,
Thanks for your kind words under my Chapter 4. Nice to see you around.
Nice to be back, thank you for being you!
The nuke thing cannot possibly work.
The seabed substrate is already too fractured to hold back the oil under natural pressure. This why the well failed, that's why they are doing capture and not proper back-filling of the bore hole. A nuke would create even more cracks, probably for hundreds of feet down and thousands of feet in all directions. I can easily imagine the oil dome would empty itself within a year or two after that. By some estimates, 100 to 250 or maybe 2000 million barrels.
You think I'm hysterical. Fine. But I bet they never try to nuke it. And if not then you'll know why they didn't.
No just terribly uninformed. The nuke would not be exploded on the seabed, that would be stupid. It would be detonated in a relief well thousands of feet below the seabed to collapse the borehole that is now leaking. Of course a nuke will never be used in this situation because it is politically incorrect.
Where do you get that cougar said seabed? The term was seabed substrate - the geology under the floor of the GoM. And cougar's words reflect those of oil industry experts. Not uninformed at all.
The nuke may be a non-starter for political reasons. But it is also a non-starter because of concerns about the geology as stated by cougar.
He wrote "hundreds of feet down" and thousands in every direction. From that, you get an image of a seabed level detonation, whereas the nuke would be set off much deeper.
I didn't watch the speech but is crude oil mixed into the sea now considered Politically Correct?
Just askin'.
Worked 4 out of 5 times on land in Russia:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpPNQoTlacU
As I'm sure you're aware, shallow land / water nuclear detonation is moderately different than dropping a nuke down a relief well 1000ish feet below 5000 feet of water (oil/mud)
You got that right! You sure got that right!
Yes
Simmons says at 0:45 remaining ""We're either content saying that we'll just put 120,000 BoD in the gulf for the next 25 or 30 years or we have to detonate it.""
Production on an open reservoir falls off dramatically once the gas escapes the reservoir. It's like popping a balloon. To make the statement that we're going to see no drop off in production over 30 years is beyond absurd. It's bizarre, unless of course Mr. Simmons is only trying to scare people. Scared people might like the nuke option. I want to know why Simmons wants to detonate a nuke. I don't know why, but I'm absolutely certain that this hole will not be spewing 120,000 BoD in 25 years.
Agreed, it is absurd as that is between 1,095,000,000 and 1,314,000,000 barrels for the period.
Way too much
What happens when you mix oil with water? Oil floats on top right. That means oil is lighter than water right. That means once the gas escapes it allows water to seep in. Instead of expansive forces driving the oil out. Compressive forces take over to hydraulically press the oil out. That is why you use water injection and steam injection to get heavy crude out of wells. 5400 ft column of water is one hell of a syringe.
Dear God, I just got that. Fuuuuuck.
What possible reason is there to drill a well without casing? It is Oil patch 101. I, I, I just do not get it..., is it all for show?
Free lube jobs for all! Just drive on down to the Gulf during hurricane season. The next "Oil Hurricane" will make a doozy headline.
I keep saying that BP and Obama have no intention of plugging this well BECAUSE it's so productive. If the spill lasts 2 years there's still hundreds of billions left in it. Exxon's Valdez costs were spread over 20 years and punitive damages were reduced by the Supreme Court in 2007.
After listening to the speech, it appears the potus is using this disaster to push green energy, more government and more taxes, which explains the inaction...
Ya america uses 20 percent of the worlds energy and we are only 2 percent of the population. I'm going to miss flying everywhere in my 200 gallon an hour Blackhawk helicopter and i'm really going to miss my 3 gallons per mile bradley armored troop carrier.
Why am i such an energy pig? Why? I just can't put my finger on it.
Inconceivable!!!
Emanuel Rahm's words:
Never let a good crisis go to waste...
We are so fucked.
sigh......isn't this what everyone was saying when H1N1 hit the news
.....and when Iraq had weapons of mass destruction
....which very plausibly went to the Baathist regime in Syria during the 18 months of palaver and force buildup before the actual invasion started.
Oil Hurricanes and a giant oil blob at the bottom of the ocean that can well up when storm surge happens
I have been a fan of this site; but in this area you really need to go to the oil drum.
This man and his assertions are ridiculous.
The plan remains the same to plug, they will just need to drill beneath the leaking casing 1000 ft below the sea floor.. Jeez too much rubbernecking on this.
I thought the plan was top kill. That had an 80% chance of working. In fact, I saw an early report that it was working. Oh, but then it didn't. Then wasn't there a plan for a top hat? Oh that didn't work either. Don't worry, the diamond saw will save the day. Oops.
This is a hard problem. My experience is that the easy things turn out to be hard, and the hard things turn out to be impossible. The thought that the relief wells will go as planned overlooks the fact that many aspects of this are uncharted waters.
Yes
Same guy who has been telling everyone that we are running out of oil??
And one of 500 deepwater wells goes haywire, and suddenly the entire Gulf of Mexico fills up with crude in a matter of months??
WTF???
+1
You win, Robo--Simmons is a joke
you're right, he's the only one telling us that oil supply is getting critical...(?)
Dont understand the comment.
This should only give a scale of oil consumption.
Too much fear mongering going on for my taste. Too much conjecture and bad math too.
However, are we being told the truth about the extent of the issues ? Hell no. We won't find out right away - but soon enough I think. It is going to suck for sure. Lots of dirty hands too. The financial fight is gonna get ugly as sin - and transform quickly into an all-out political fight. Brits vs. Yanks will be the spin. Got family in London... will have to get some updates here soon on the MSM take over there.
I can't take this administration anymore. He's just selling Cap and Trade! Peoples lives are being impacted, BP and .gov are lying to us, but at least we can raise taxes and put up wind turbines! (which you have to turn off for migrating birds that fly into them)
I don't expect .gov to fix anything, what I do expect is for them to support the solutions posed by people and stay out of the way. Nobody knows what to believe because everyone is lying. It allows for speculation on everything which muddys the water and inhibits all the partys involved from making the correct diecisions. I'm losing my mind! I lived in Pensacola and spent everyday at the beach. Half my family lives in Florida, how the hell is Cap and Trade going to help them?
Don't worry though, HFT's, Chinese solars, and Sarah Palin will save us! <sarcasm -off>
Good lord, I thought BP was already a penny stock. Then I actually look and its capitalization is at 98billion. This isn't a disaster, the market cap has been only cut in half so far. Wow, I'm so depressed now.
LOL President is such a pawn. Any bets on how long till BP declares bankruptcy now? I give them 2 weeks tops.
Then get ready for QE2 of about 3$ more trillion to pay for GULF cleanup and his newly encouraged energy plan. LOL
Taxpayers going to pay for this fiasco too.
Anyone and everyone in the spotlight now is just attempting to distract from the multi-vehicle CHIPS style pile-up that continues to occur on a daily basis across the globe. In this case, oil beneath the water is convenient, since a Katla style mess really would show up great on satellite images.
Financial crisis turning into sovereign crisis into political crisis as we speak.
My guess is that BP will not declare bankruptcy - the UK gov won't let them and they will be a player in this as well. If I were BP I would think about how to separate the US operations from the rest of the company - look for moves there.
Gov't can't stop a bankruptcy.
lol - you are joking right? 5 big banks, AIG, Fannie Mae, GM - the list goes on and on
Tyler? Marla? How 'bout starting a QE2.0 over / under poll?
We are nearly two months into this and virtually every news organization has people stationed in the Gulf; yet I have seen absolutely no news footage showing masses of fish floating upside down.
Something from an Canadian source:
http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/gallery/html/bc_oilspill_20100615/photo_0.html
photo caption:
Dead fish in a clump of oil, which were part of a larger fish kill and placed in foil by Louisiana Wildlife and Fisheries personnel, are seen in oil impacted areas of the Northern shores of Barataria Bay in Plaquemines Parish, La., Tuesday, June 15, 2010.
This is only going to get worst. This is what PEAK OIL looks like. PEAK OIL is directly related to the bogus wars, and to the collaspe of the global economies. We are all screwed.
You know, if I was a BIRD I would fucking start a union. If you're not getting sucked into a jet engine, you're landing into a pond full of oil goop. And then they build all this windmill shit to cut us to pieces in the air.
Good point. The FAA estimates 15,000 birds are killed (murdered!) annually in U.S. airspace alone due to bird strikes. The President and Congress may decide to ground all flights until scientists can properly address this issue.
they also get it from the focused solar arrays...as well as 12 year olds with BB guns!
Yeah, but if you started a union, Mish Shedlock would be all over your case.
Good one! Ole Mish does have one rabid hatred of unions.
So SOLAR is the answer for yous birds?
LMAO. It is Leo.
This clown is almost as credible as Bernanke, Obama, Geithner & Summers (BOGS)......
Matt Simmons is one of the smartest people in the oil industry. I suggest you read his book Twilight in the Desert, one of the best books out there on Oil production, it's history, peak oil and Ghawar. His presentations are outstanding.
I suggest people listen to Matt, the Govt was telling us that the well was spewing 5,000 Bpd and now we're at 60,000. More research certainly needs to be done but BP is not giving us the whole picture.
Perfection.
That was the name of the sadistic rapist in "The Shawkshank Redemption" nee "Rita Hayworth and the Shawshank Redemption".
That BS was about as nothing as you could get, except for the 17,000 soldiers assigned to contain 'what' is another matter.
I believe the President indicated that those troops would be doing things such as helping people fill out claims forms.
Makes sense when ya think about it. Wanna make a claim against BP? See the man with the rifle.
Obama mentioned Chinese solar... he IS Leo
Ever seen POTUS and Leo in the same place at the same time?
Nope!
PEAK OIL is real. The denial on this thread is just that. We are all to blame for what is going on in this world. It's not a political party thing, we're all to blame, and it's time to put the parties aside. It's time we stop blaming others for our mistakes. If you drive a car (especially an SUV), own a McMansion, have more than 2 kids, you're to blame. Those who don't agree, good luck.
PS - The taxpayers are not going to pay for this, humans will with their lives. And yes, the President is a pawn, but since Ronny, hell even before that they are all TOOLS. The military/corp elites/banksters control all of us, Presidents too.
(cricket sounds)
" If you drive a car (especially an SUV), own a McMansion, have more than 2 kids, you're to blame."
Well, you got the idea right, but you drew your line in the wrong place.
Essentially, if you EXIST, and you use any modern technology at all, then YOU are contributing to the mentality that led to this event.
+2 kids? SUV? McMansion?
Please. Don't be so naive that you believe that 1 kid, Toyota Pious, living in a Yert, and so on makes you not part of the problem.
Try this. If you're reading these words, you're part of the problem.
If you want to get into degrees, have fun with that. Nothing makes the 300 pound man feel better than pointing out how fat the 400 pound man is.
You want to start laying out blame you can start here: "
"the U.S. military is the largest consumer of oil in the world...The average American soldier uses (directly & indirectly) 16 gallons of oil on a daily basis. Multiply this figure by 162k soldiers in Iraq, 24k in Afghanistan, and 30k in the surrounding region and you arrive at approximately 3.5 million... gallons of oil: the daily petroleum tab for U.S. combat operations in the Middle East war zone."And don't forget the dog! (actually pets do have huge carbon footprints but I will say nothing more on the subject - love dogs - but cats on the other hand ....)
You haven't met the right kitty or you would change your mind. Mine is wonderful and loving. He even fetches his ball.
He's wrong about the two kids. It's 2.6 kids.
I've had it with computers. This comment was supposed to land somewhere else.
I forgot to turn off the gas on the stove one time. Man I feel better now that I said that.
Here's the BP line endorsed and propagated by your spokesperson-in-chief:
"BP will be collecting 90% of the leak in a couple of weeks"
(Prepare to be bombarded with daily missives by MSM supporting this propaganda. What the hell, if they can't stop it from leaking, they'll do what they always do, lie and make you believe they have.)
BO will be collecting 90% of your income before that happens...
Agreed!
BP collecting 90% of 60,000 bpd means 6,000 bpd will be escaping! This is still more than their original estimates.
6000 bpd escape == 41.66 dpV (days-per-Valdez)
Put the nuke option to rest-it ain't happening....
http://bit.ly/dhcLXr
How about he learn how the procedure is done and then get back to us.
What happened to the "hole'' several miles from the riser that was supposed to be the main event?
If he is right I will happily eat my words, but I think he is a moron trying to scare the crap out of people to get himself on TV and perhaps bolster his short positions in petroleum stocks.
120k barrels a day - that is 3x the highest estimates by anyone else.
40% of the gulf - even a simple mathematical calculation disproves that
Use a nuke - that idea has been beaten to death; logistically it is impossible for technological reasons of the bomb itself and also because NO ONE knows if it will work 13,000 feet below the seabed which is 5,000 feet under water.
Complete and unadulterated RUBBISH.
What the hell is Simmons chasing?
I remember reading that they fractured into the reservoir weeks before the Blowout and had to back out and cement it in.
They then replaced the downhole drill and went into it (reservoir) again.
They know the pressures down there and I heard it was not out of the norm.
Remember they were capping the well for later production when the well blew.(not just poking fresh into the reservoir )
Everyone makes this well sound like it is a superwell as far as pressure. It is not.
Now if the casing is damaged .......?
Where are those tanker/skimmers they used in Saudi Arabia ?
Oh! they are leased out and full of oil ?
Well lets empty them out and start gathering these 100's of millions of barrels of oil.
Just put a bounty on every barrel recovered from the Gulf seabed say $2500 per barrel.
I think the Fed fines BP $4100 per barrel
This would get this mess cleaned up in a hurry and the Gubment would make a profit/never !
But it would kill the price of oil.
decisions, decisions.........?
I read about the 1979 Ixtoc 1 oil rig blowout, which also took place in the Gulf of Mexico. Though the rig was in about 160 feet of water, the depth of drilling was over 11,000 feet, making it comparable to BP's Deepwater Horizon rig.
Like Deepwater Horizon, the Ixtoc 1 blowout seemed to be an intractable problem. The leak continued for 10 months until the oil company, Pemex, successfully capped it. The measures they took over that time period involved progressing reducing the oil flow and capturing as much crude as possible during the course of doing so.
Interestingly, Pemex also used the toxic dispersant, Corexit, but was told to stop by the U.S. Government.
The Ixtoc I disaster and BP's disaster are mirror images of each other. Admittedly, BP is working at much more challenging depth of 5000 feet, but ROVs can be used instead of human divers.
What makes this situation problematic is not the leak itself but BP's reluctance to bring in a fleet of supertankers that could be used to suck up the oil and stop it from spreading to the U.S. coastal states.
I truly believe the American people wouldn't be quite so alarmed about the spill if the oil weren't washing up on beaches in Louisiana, Alabama, and Florida. It's actually quite unnecessary to let the oil spread in this way. It creates an atmosphere of chaos and, as a result, utter fear for the public.
But I believe that half the purpose of this disaster is precisely to create chaos and fear. How else could draconian legislation like the Cap and Trade Bill be rammed through. This, as someone succinctly noted on the SKF board today, is a classic example of what Naomi Klein calls The Shock Doctrine: http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine/the-book
letter from Congress to Mr. Hayward:
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJ-20100614-LetterToHa...
Imagine the excitment when BP found this oil source. It was a dream come true. Interesting that their dream turned into their worst nightmare. Unforutnatly it has become our worst nightmare too.
what is this BS about BP only has the tools to work this spill?? so Exxon, etc do NOT have anything to stop spills? Only BP has tools to do what?? Robots with deli slicers?
Read this:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593/648967
Obama's comparing the leak to 9/11 because it is probably worse, and to cover his butt when that becomes widely apparent...
good link. I may add to my BP short tomorrow if the opportunity arises....
Opportunity definitely arose today around noon. Lets see what happens tomorrow, probs <28.92
Guy sounds like he may know his stuff, and he concludes: "The magnitude and impact of this disaster will eclipse anything we have known in our life times if the worst or even near worst happens..."
In other words:
a disaster of the biggest magnitude, and
a disaster of the biggest impact
Wow.
I'm confused... So the enemy is Osama Bin Carbon now ?
Or is it Obama Sin Carbon ??
It's getting so that I don't know what to fear and I don't know what government policy will protect me...
Carbon Trading == Buying INDULGENCES @ the CHURCH OF GREEN
Thanks for helping me get that out...
I am dissapointed that Obama used this National Catastrophy into a push for Cap and Trade Legislation. We do need Leadership in solving this proble and all we are getting is Cap and Trade which will tax every American on their energy use.
Almost seems like Obama does not want to fix this problem but use it for his ultimate goal of Cap and Trade. Unfortuante for the Citizens of America.
Obama is not a leader. He is a preener and an ideologue.
"Disappointed" is understandable. Surprised - not so much.
A small nuke might work, but getting it down around 3,000m would be next to impossible. If you bore a hole close enough to the existing leak, you risk fracturing the existing into the new hole/casing; not to mention the need for a larger reaction to seal both holes. You obviously can't go through the existing casing because of the resulting increased pressure caused by decreasing the effective diameter of existing casing (try sticking your pinkie finger into a garden hose).
CAPTURE may be the only real alternative until the relief wells can be utilized; asssuming they work - I wouldn't hold my breath.
I calculated 60,000 bpd on this very forum several weeks ago, and stated that said estimate was conservative. 100,000+ bpd is more than realistic for this particular leak.
This guy smells a lot like T Boone Pickens. Who will rob you blind with the help of the government. And who will say anything to meet that goal. Has industry savvy, but is a double talker.
Honestly, I've seen larger fish kills with an algae bloom. Not to say that this isn't bad- but people are getting hysterical.
Situation still out of control? Yup.
Righteous hysteria? Maybe... Helpful? Probably not.
Heard interesting theory today. Supposedly the oil-soaked ocean will cause a small rise in water temperature (black surface absorbs heat), which will results in bigger/deadlier hurricanes. Would BP be liable for that?
In either case, it's hard to buy BP as a long-term investment.
What is keeping BP from walking away from it's U.S. assets and going on their merry way? Seems that would cost $25-30 billion. This is getting so ugly I can guarantee management is looking into this.
Bomb Baby Bomb!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I need ya, Decks. This is a bad one, the worst yet. I need the old blade runner, I need your magic.
That is why they are allowing it to flow and not wanting any pressure on the system, because the casing is cracked and/or erroded through (most likely in more than one place). Thats why the top kill failed because the mud was going out of the well into the casing and into the ground itself. Also I saw a video that was posted of the floor and their is seepage coming from the ocean floor surface. The oil has already broke through the casing and have eaten and/or found a way to the surface. If nobody noticed, the BOP is leaning. And what is holding up the 450 ton BOP, the pipe in the well and the cement at the top in the well, and this is getting erroded.
I read from other experts saying that yes a nuke may be the only option, but it's a hailmary. For one it's being used essentially one mile under water and then placed so many thousand feet into the surface. Two, will the surface that is underwater and most of it made of salts and other forms of sediment, will it hold this shell of glass or will it fracture and make this even worse than it already is. And if it does work, will the shock wave from the nuke propagated into the surface cause other wells to crack or shatter.
http://trueslant.com/juliaioffe/2010/05/04/nuke-that-slick/
It's the 1970's all over again. Back then we went off the gold standard which pulled the rug from underneath the dollar. We ended up devaluing by 50% in five years, then 70% total by '79 if I'm not mistaken. The blame was placed on "international speculators" and the Arabs. This time it will be the BP disaster and more than likely a few more (the nuke option will make things worse, as is meant to). The idea is to create real shortages to jack up prices on food, energy, water, then blame "big oil" and other "polluters" (check out the recent crop damage stories). Once the public accepts the "temporary and necessary" high prices then production will go back up but prices will stay high while the printing press goes into warp drive. Call it stealth devaluation. Don't forget the massive stimulus, err.. aid money for the cleanup: jobs, jobs, jobs. Finally, to seal the deal: cap and trade. It's real simple, they create the problem (the oil spill), then they offer the solution; but not before we demand it from them (old Nazi methods).
Nice view
Puts it into perspective
Bring us to the edge and then ...............>
Chop ! Chop!
Thanks
ah yes, I remember the 1970's, we were handing out F-14 Tomcats to the Iranians, then Russia invaded Afghanistan, and we armed Bin Laden...and Hussein...meanwhile, took down Liberia via Taylor. oh yeah, Vietnam.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XGU9_Mg3QM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoPoyzREUDw&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0yzEHdNSCA&feature=related
That's fairly well-reasoned. Are you Naomi Klein? Like the avatar anyhoo. <snicker>
The pressure seems to be much higher than BP planned. The talk is that GOM oil deposits are under extreme pressure due to bending of the entire North America plate, also causing earthquakes, sinkholes, etc. etc. This is producing about 70,000 psi in wells that should be much lower.
It is simple physics: The area of the pipe multiplied by the pressure in feet per second get you the volume of flow. The pipe is 24 inches in diameter and so if the flow rate is 150 feet per second, you can get the amount of volume of oil which will tell you how many barrels per day is leaking from the damn thing. Come on BP this is first year engineering here!
Except that the gas mixed in with the oil complicates your calculation.
Why don't you use 1000 ft per second and get a larger number?
Your example is first year engineering in that you calculate using values that you don't know. Where did you come up with pressure in ft per second as something measureable anyway?
The pipe with the flowing oil is not 24 inches either.
pressure is psi; feet per second is velocity
that is first year engineering, too
I hope someone reads this.
First there is casing in the well, erroded or not, you can see it in the footage after they cut the riser, and before and after the bone head idea of using a dome.....biggest bunch of %#^$in dummies sh&^ I have ever heard. So two casing in well...one 'surface' casing to hold up well and to hold down a BOP incase needed, and the casing they ran and FU**ED up the semen job on.
Second, there is a flange right there!!! Try to imagine this....without pretty pictures......Get a hammer wrench into robot hand not holding the camera...undo bolts.....then having already made a similar flange with small riser, weld onto it 24in ball valve and gate valve<backup> rated for 10,000psi stuff or what ever and bolt onto gushing stupid human oil leak -- be sure to use cross bolt pattern to sit ring gasket and then when it tight.....clooooosssseeeee the valve.
Third, everyone should be fired for fraud.....that they get paid and supposedly are qualified to be called an Oil Field Expert. BP, Haliburnt, TransOcean for complacency.
Hopefully <as above> the subcasing that was already cemented there before main hole is not washed by sand and will actually hold it <BOP Thingy> upto now.
And yes.....drill baby drill them relief wells fast and drain that basin as fast as possible.
I wouldn't even risk throwing golf balls down there anymore.
I think the end game for BP will be the US failed corp state will probably nationalize BP for cash and property <before/during/after chapter protection>what ever they can get there hands on, and slowly get sold out the back door for no money to crony interests.
I can't believe where this has gotten.
Stupid Human Trick of our 100,000 years of up-right existence.
Oh...and the nuke option is for FU@#IN RETARDS, watch them totally screw that up
Me
'human intelligence' at this point seems a contradiction in terms, a bitter and sad accident and on an evolutionary time scale a failed experiment. the most successful species in an evolutionary sense, do not 'think' like we do. how can a species be greedier than smarter and expect to survive? that by itself is unsustainable. it's like a snake eating itself and feeling full until the end. you can't cheat feedback loops, you can't cheat equilibrium or steady state pathways that are bigger than us. we're so stupid man.
Yup. Kali Yuga.
It is called an ourobouros (sp?) and apparently TPTB views it as a symbol of !renewal!
I can't say that I understand this view. The symbol is very disturbing to me in a manner that seems self-evident but I don't have yet have command-and-control-syndrome or terminal-avarice. Probably clouds my thinking.
"Oroboros" - snake devouring it's tail, meant to represent the eternal cycles of existence and renewal, that which lives, dies and that which dies, lives. . .
The idea of Relief Wells to "drain the resevoir" is not a solution. The Relief Well will do a bottom kill instead of a top kill.
If you do plan out a Stupid Human Trick, have an adult look it over before you actually try to execute it or I predict serious injury.
From Beyond Plutonium to Beyond Pathetic
Sad
Make the shareholders pay, for everything... yeah, I'm talking to you Bilderberger
this video is scaring the shit out of me. only at 1100 feet off the coast of viet nam in 1993, fast forward the video to minute 5:00 and see for yourself and then scale up and extrapolate to the dwh well in the gulf. i always wondered how the middle of the country was supposed to get flooded per nosturdamus, super volcano whatever, well if this dude's video is correct and if a giant MH field liquidates setting off a sort of continental collapse....well then that would be the penultimate teaching moment of 'we know not of what we do' hubris.
http://www.youtube.com/user/1236bigcat#p/a/u/2/EVdnkMxocl0
minute 7 of the video supposedly from a bp document (?) states that: " Porosities of over 30% have been commonly cited.Connectivity in sheet sand and ammalgated sheet and channel sands (the entrie matrix is to an extent held together by Methane Hydrate layers) is high for deep water turbidite (high pressure) reservoirs".
600+ pounds per sq foot of hydrolic pressure coming out of that well? there was not way in hell ever that any of the capping methods was ever going to work. wtf is going on here. we are killing ourselves. food chain gone. pacific garbage patch in the pacific and this now on this side. w-t-f ? is this really necessary?
Godzilla...rises from the sea..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rXtG3vfAlA
i love that footage. rocketdyne flushed those huge engines about 5 miles from where i live and polluted all the groundwater wells for the entire city of los angeles with giant underground plumes of tetrachloroethylene and perchlorate, industrial solvents they used to flush the engines after tests. these massive engines are cubically large and there are when fired as a unit 5 of them i guess? so how many tests per day you think? 1 or 3 or so? flush them and then the stuff ran down a spillway into an open pool. google ssfl, the santa suzana field laboratory. this is just less than five miles from a million people. plus later they tried to sell people new homes built on that land and finally the state of california built a park on it. for kids to play on. also this was the site of a sodium nuclear reactor meltdown in the 50's, worse than 3 mile island. yeah i love technology. electricity. i just would love it if we could stay not too far ahead of ourselves. that's all. too much to ask.
+100
Intersting how you can tie this back to the idea of too much fiat money in the system...
Do you remember cap guns when we were kids? And you have those little strips that go bang when you take a brick and slam it against the little dots on the strips?
So what I get from that is every time we drill, we are drilling into something that explodes in order to be able to get our straw into the oil to suck it out. Tapp, tapp, tapp, BANG! We should not be surprised at all that this blew up!
Thanks for posting the video.
/tinfoil hat on
Maybe they're fumbling this on purpose to discourage domestic drilling. It could be part of a larger geopolitical strategy to deplete foreign oil supplies before our own.
/tinfoil hat off
They are not fumbling anything. They are putting on a circus show for those who insist on watching. The oil field experts said from the beginning that the relief wells were the only option that had any chance of stopping the leak. Those were started right away but will take months to complete. In the meantime ... a show for those who insist on watching.
Why are we talking about using nukes? not even in my best dreams would I assume that a nuke is an option as an engineer. What this loon is talking about is setting off a warhead 5 miles under water around the equivalent in power (if his shit is correct) of oil or 5400 nukes. and hoping that it turns the sand to glass, even though nobody has done a composite sample of the minerals and dirt in the area (it's one thing to do it in the desert).
Someone should get him back on the meds and back to him home. Between nukes and guessing market mechanics my worry is one of the old fuckers takes him seriously and does it.
Because all I'm hearing right now is the best way to stop propane on fire in a BBQ is to use a grenade.
This is not going to end well at all.
If anyone knows anybody in the Carib area tell them to leave before this idiot stick convinces someone. The tidal wave will be enough to practically wash every inch of life off the islands if it all goes "according to plan"
BP America has total asset value of about $90 billion. GS and Blackrock will advise BP to walk away from BP America and let the creditors fight over the crumbs when the fines/direct liabilities reach the net value of the assets. If the relief well fails or there is a hurricane, the total cost of this leak will be trillions, not billions. Deep water drilling in the GOM will be dead,Houston will be a ghost town, and FL tourism will be gone for decades unless the relief well succeeds IMHO. BP will survive as they can walk away, but the long term cost to the USA of a multiyear leak will be profound. The President knows that its likely the relief well will fail and thats why his speech was crafted as a war speech after being attacked by a major enemy that will take years to fight. Dow 5000 will be only a remote hope.
Guys
Get out a calculator and do a simple sum - 120,000 barrels per day since this thing started spread out over 40% of the area of the gulf equals a layer of oil roughly 1/3000 of a millimetre thick. Apart from anything else, this would be completely undetectable at depth (you might see a sheen on a completely flat surface). "When in trouble or in doubt, run in circles scream and shout" seems to be the motto of the US these days.
Amen!
People who believe the Godzilla type stories on this deal have little ability to use a calculator.
There is a pretty extensive data dump of the material detailing the drilling and completion of this well. The pay zone is only about 60' thick. Nice to find the oil but nothing exceptional and not particularly exciting. Bottom hole pressures were about 13,500 and nothing exceptional about that.
It is probable that the flow rate has increased over time as the material blocking flow has been cut and produced up and out the hole. The continuous allegations that BP is lying about volumes are based upon nothing. BP has not given a flow estimate and what has be quoted are estimates from various government agencies. BP knows that they do not know and that it will likely change as the formation face changes and hole condition changes. The cave in concerns about methane hydrates is nonsense. Sure, they are a problem for absolute control in getting a good cement job. However, consider how far any heat from the oil flowing up the well will move through the ground. Not far and that is the distance the methane hydrates will be affected.
My observation after reading so many nonsense posts about this incident is that the people are actually capable of reading will spend most of their time on something such as People Magazine rather than anything technical. It is no wonder that they are so envious of those who can actually do even simple sums and ciphers.
But we should believe you? Exactly why is that sir?
Basically your saying that what the main stream media is saying is closer to the truth than what Simmons is saying.
Either the main street media is soo honest and should be trusted, or you possess technical knowledge far superior than Simmons and others?
Fan fucking tastic!
even after 9/11, BUSHx2, Clusterfucks Iran & Afghanistan, Biblical Pigman greed and ensuing collapse of economy, Obama the Corpchurian candidate, Europe's miasma...none of it fills me with more dread than the BP disaster....why is that?
what the fuck have WE (humans) done here?
I’m glad to see that someone can see this as a result of a historical process, i.e. deregulation, greed is good, do whatever, even kill and maim millions for oil, corruption through and through. All this did NOT started two years or two months ago … this is result of a very long history.
Obama? Kept it up the moment he placed (kept?) Summer, Geithner (banksters=big oil=greed is good corporations) in charge. He MAY want to change things (certainly not US foreign policy=empire), but he just must have discovered that the goldmand sucks of this world are also present in the (Cheney-Bush-wars for oil)industry. Sorry, just an opinion, and not a very popular here I guess. Why not put arrogance aside, accept limitations, and call on the international community for help?
I was pro-nuke early, you know, just collapse the long vertical well and seal it up. But others have pointed out, and it worries me, that if you expode the sea floor, what if that actually breaks the dome of rock sealing the oil (under enormous pressure), and the leak turns into a a giant volcano turning the gulf into a tar pit. Good for oil prices, sure, but not a good outcome.
NPR is reporting oil coating the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.
Scientists on a research vessel in the Gulf of Mexico are finding a substantial layer of oily sediment stretching for dozens of miles in all directions. Their discovery suggests that a lot of oil from the Deepwater Horizon didn't simply evaporate or dissipate into the water — it has settled to the seafloor.
The Research Vessel Oceanus sailed on Aug. 21 on a mission to figure out what happened to the more than 4 million barrels of oil that gushed into the water. Onboard, Samantha Joye, a professor in the Department of Marine Sciences at the University of Georgia, says she suddenly has a pretty good idea about where a lot of it ended up. It's showing up in samples of the seafloor, between the well site and the coast.
"I've collected literally hundreds of sediment cores from the Gulf of Mexico, including around this area. And I've never seen anything like this," she said in an interview via satellite phone from the boat.
Joye describes seeing layers of oily material — in some places more than 2 inches thick — covering the bottom of the seafloor.
"It's very fluffy and porous. And there are little tar balls in there you can see that look like microscopic cauliflower heads," she says.
It's very clearly a fresh layer. Right below it she finds much more typical seafloor mud. And in that layer, she finds recently dead shrimp, worms and other invertebrates.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129782098#commentBlock