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Matt Simmons Says Gulf Clean Up Will Cost Over $1 Trillion, Sees BP At $1, Says "We Have Now Killed The GoM"

Tyler Durden's picture


Matt Simmons shares some startling revelations in his latest Bloomberg TV interview, in which he says none of the propaganda matters on TV 24/7 (photoshopped or not) as the ultimate clean up cost will likely be well over $1 trillion, and a result he is unconcerned about his BP short. He ultimately see the stock going down to $1. What Simmons alleges however is far more startling and audacious: that this is a joint cover up effort between the administration and BP, in which both entities keep throwing sand in the eyes of observers while distracting everyone from the matter at hand: "What we don’t know anything about is the open hole which is caused by
the drill bit when it tossed the blow-out preventer way out of the
hole…and 120,000/day minimum of toxic poison has now covered the floor of
the Gulf of Mexico. So what they’re talking about is the biggest
environmental cover-up ever. And they knew that that well, that riser,
would finally deplete. And then they could say it’s over." On blaming the catastrophe on Transocean: "For two days they kept saying it’s a rig fire. When the rig sank they
could no longer call it a rig fire. It’s a riser leak
Because if they
said the truth they would all go to jail.
" The conclusion: "Unfortunately, we now have killed the Gulf of Mexico."

On whether the well pressure should be a concern:

“No, it’s a total diversion - that’s the gas condensation that was trapped in the drilling riser which blew off the wellhead at 10:01 PM CT on April 20th, it's a mile-long compressed natural gas."

"What we don’t know anything about is the open hole which is caused by the drill bit when it tossed the blow-out preventer way out of the hole…and 120,000 minimum of toxic poison has now covered the floor of the Gulf of Mexico. So what they’re talking about is the biggest environmental cover-up ever. And they knew that that well, that riser, would finally deplete. And then they could say it’s over. And unfortunately, we now have killed the Gulf of Mexico.”

“Some 5-10 miles away is what the NOIA research vessels have now proved is a deep oil lake that is growing by the day and it’s very toxic oil and its gases are very lethal. Basically if we have a hurricane now, we would have to evacuate the Gulf Coast.”

On the financial implications for BP:
“When people find out the magnitude of the story, I don’t know if we can technically clean up the Gulf but it would cost at least a trillion dollars.”

Simmons on his reaction to the rig explosion: 

“First of all when I woke up, when my wife turned on the television at 7:00 AM on the 21st and I saw this shocking news, that one of the greatest deepwater rigs ever built by one of the great companies in the industry, Transocean, was in the middle of this terrible fire, and then they said this was a rig fire, this is fuel on the rig, I know that there was 700 gallons of diesel on the rig, I said ‘This is a lie, the Gulf of Mexico is on fire. Why are they saying this?’  For two days they kept saying it’s a rig fire. When the rig sank they could no longer call it a rig fire. It’s a riser leak…Because if they said the truth they would all go to jail.”

On whether the blame lies squarely with BP:

"I think Transocean need Congressional Medals of Hero for this…I am really disgusted. Other than John Hofmeister, the retired president of Shell America, he's the only other person in the industry who I've seen to speak out."

Simmons on why he is shorting BP stock:

“You bet I did. Because I thought BP was going to go under. I’ve been saying that for months and months and when I read that 20 of the 24 Wall Street analysts had a ‘buys,’ I said ‘ That’s ridiculous, I’m going to short them.’ I’ve never shorted a stock in my life before.

"I have patience. The stock will go to one."

“They promised to clean up the Gulf, is that right?  Do you know how much it will cost if they can technically do it? Well over a trillion dollars.”

On whether there is hope for a permanent solution now that the oil has stopped leaking:

“No, because that’s not the gusher. That was a little bit of condensation that would have ended anyways. There’s no way to fix the gusher because there’s no casing left in the hole other than doing a small diameter nuclear bomb…It's the only way. With no casing left in the hole, the odds of the relief well working are zero. What the relief wells do-- if they can find the casing, they then cut a 4 inch hole--and then they have something to capture the mud with. With no casing there, it's like pouring oatmeal down a fire hydrant…The casing is not there. It's scattered over the ocean floor. The government now has gamma ray images of the actual blow-out preventer, which is five stories high, weighs 325 tons and it has two sections of casing that pierced through five stories of metal."


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Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:08 | 481672 IrishSamurai
IrishSamurai's picture


Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:11 | 481682 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Ah, yes. No visible oil. Everything is okay.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:20 | 481729 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

From now on everybody junk up to say 16 or 17 because once the comment is gone we get a disjointed mess.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:31 | 481771 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

looks like mister simmons hasn't covered his shorts yet.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:56 | 481858 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Damn it people!

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:43 | 481961 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Junkers late to the party or what? I'm saying that we shouldn't junk over 19 so we can see the comment and maintain thread integrity since Tyler doesn't allow infinite junks. It would be cool to see 56 junks, or whatever. Instead, POOF!

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 18:45 | 482105 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

so we'll all have to junk the comments that pointed out the junked ones...  leave no trace...

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 20:51 | 482330 thesapein
thesapein's picture

But that defeats the whole purpose of having a junk option.

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 09:58 | 483312 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Group censorship. No better than HuffingtonGlue.

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 13:22 | 483893 thesapein
thesapein's picture

You want everything anybody says to be equally valid? Some ideas are like weeds. Some are fruitful. Who is to decide? We all do. Just for ourselves? Depends on how self centered we are.

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 16:54 | 484359 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

I just don't like that they get disappeared and then thread gets screwy. Junk away - and I want to see the total junks - not just 19 then gone.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:13 | 481691 HEHEHE
HEHEHE's picture

How do you know this?

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:18 | 481714 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Wonder how hard it would be to find out who is long BP?  LOL

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:48 | 481836 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

most likely all pensions will be forced to buy BP hand over fist...

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:19 | 481717 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

From a drilling/mineral stand point, a lot of what he just said makes absolutly no sense.  However I do believe the oil is still leaking.



Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:25 | 481749 HEHEHE
HEHEHE's picture

Explain how it does not make sense? 

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:36 | 481780 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

If they had already tripped the pipe and had run casing for that section of the well and were cementing at the time of the blow out, then why would there be a drill bit (drill bits are attached to drill pipe not casing) in the well that supposedly destroyed the BOPs shear rams on the way out?


Secondly, how could presure build up from condnesate, which is a stable mineral at those pressures, inside a riser which is torn to shreds? If any of the condensate turned to gas it would simply bubble to the surface.  Remeber the gas was turning to condensate when it hit the sea water and cooled, clogging the top hats.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:41 | 481810 truont
truont's picture

Consider this:  The 6-inch diameter riser pipe could not possibly expel the amount of oil estimated to be in the Gulf of Mexico.  Therefore, there must be another leak...

Dylan Ratigan Show, MSNBC, July 15, 2010:

BP claims oil is no longer flowing into the Gulf.

That supposes of course that the only hole in the ground is the 6-inch diameter hole that you see there capped.

Matt Simmons argues you can’t spill 300 to 400 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico out of a 6-inch wide pipe.

Not to mention explode a 5 story building which is how big a bop is and not end up with more than a small hole.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:53 | 481850 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

There is so much misinformation out there.


The riser is what carries the drilling fluid and cuttings to the surface from the TOP of the well bore and was certainly not 6 inches, try more like 20 or 30 something for a well that deep.  A well is drilled in several sections each with a progressively smaller diameter (think telescope). After a section is drilled the pipe must be tripped (taken out of the hole) and casing run down the hole, then cemented before the next section can be drilled or before production completion can be performed.  It was during one of the cement jobs at depth when the had a blow out (cement didn't set properly, time or composition could have been factors). 

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 18:07 | 482021 Augustus
Augustus's picture

The BOP did not explode.  It is right where is is supposed to be.  It was leaking, but that is certainly not what Simmons is implying.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 22:31 | 482582 Augustus
Augustus's picture

the hole is filled with mud.  They trip the drill pipe out of the hole to run the casing.  Casing is open on the bottom and fills with the mud, surrounded by the mud.  Pump the cement job down the inside of the casing, through the shoe / hole in the bottom, up the back side of the casing.  Wait on Cement,   Test Cement.  Now they run the drill pipe back into the hole to the point where they want to start the seawater displacement.  they pump the seawater beginning at 8,000 ft, 3000 ft below mudline.  When the seawater goes in, the mud comes out of the casing from that point up to the top.  Displacing the mud lowers the weight and the well blows.  There is still the drill string in the casing, through the riser, BOP and wellhead, when the well blows and the BOP is shut.  Drill pipe is in about 30' sections that are screwed together.  those joining points are thicker to compensate for the threads and the weakness they may cause.  It could be that there was a thicker coupling in the BOP.  Or it could be that there was some casing moved up the hole a few feet that is also in the BOP.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:22 | 481738 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

Noah Vail street cred zero; Matt Simmons large and in charge.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:59 | 481869 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture


Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:37 | 481790 flagg707
flagg707's picture

@Noah:  Well, I think "full of shit" is a bit overdone.  He said from day one that this was a major leak, when BP and the Coast Guard were saying it was only 1,000 barrels and day, then only 5,000 barrels a day.  He was right, they were not giving accurate information.

Simmons said that the casing was ejected up the bore hole.  BP said that was impossible.  Then gamma ray imaging done at the insistence of the US Government showed a section of casing that had been ejected.  He was right, BP was not giving accurate information.

Maybe he is wrong about the particulars or the magnitude of this supposed "oil lake" and I hope he is.  But his track record is better than BP's so far.

(edited to fix a typo)

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 18:09 | 482028 Augustus
Augustus's picture

No.  His record is NOT better than BP's.

Flow rate from simmons?

Well pressures from Simmons?

Well location from Simmons?

Those are pretty major and he is not even on the same planet.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 18:54 | 482124 Jim_Rockford
Jim_Rockford's picture

And don't forget GOM depth!  23,000ft according to Simmons.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 21:27 | 482390 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

well, Simmons hasn't:

1) helped overthrow a legitimately elected government

2) committed genocide

3) caused a possible life ending event in the Gulf of Oil.

so, yeah, I'd have to say that Simmons record is better than BP's. 

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 21:51 | 482459 Cammy Le Flage
Cammy Le Flage's picture

How do we know he has not done this?  That is all Big Oil does frankly? 

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:44 | 481824 First There Is ...
First There Is A Mountain's picture

So there ain't no oil on your beach, Archie?? I guess that means there was no disaster either? Problem solved <dusts hands>.

But just in case we weren't all imagining startling footage of pelicans suffocating under a viscous coat of Quaker State, can you tell us exactly what did happen? Think millions of gallons of Correxit sprayed liberally into the gusher may have done something to conceal the true nature of this disaster, er, small environmental hiccup? Kinda like Vietnam was just a police action.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 20:41 | 482314 Inspector Asset
Inspector Asset's picture

I suppose the clean up company plans to book a trillion is sales.

Who could be the clean up company. Oh, that would be Halburton.

Where would this country be without Halburton.

God bless Halburton

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 21:14 | 482369 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

and Kevin Costner's miricle machine that will spin the oil from the water faster than BP and the WH can spin their lies.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:12 | 481686 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Great, put a drop of poison in a pitcher of ice tea and drink up.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:58 | 481865 thesapein
thesapein's picture

+1 for kill'n it!

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:19 | 481715 aheady
aheady's picture


Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:00 | 481719 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Would you care to share your estimate? I'm curious how you would come to this conclusion. Just some basic numbers is all I'm asking for. Thanks.

edit: Looks like Noah will disappear from junks pretty soon so I'm adding his post below so people will understand what we were responding to.

by Noah Vail
on Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:16


denari, you are exactly right. Plus, they have captured most of the leaked oil. But, as you can see, there are a lot oil haters out there who WANT to believe that this is a catastrophe when it isn't. I've run an estimate and based on what they've spent so far, this will not cost BP more than $20 billion and probably more like $15.

  • flag as junk (13) 
  • Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:02 | 481871 dark pools of soros
    dark pools of soros's picture

    his estimate shows BP paying for clean up with their own dying shares...  so yes.. $20.. then $15...  it is a moving number.. 

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 19:23 | 482167 YourAverageDebtSlave
    YourAverageDebtSlave's picture

    I  was reading the  comments on the dollar estimates and was wondering how much oil are we talking about.  While I can't comment on the dollars, it was helpful for me to get an idea of how much oil we were talking about so here it goes (I did the computations in Word and Excel so I'm not sure why the weird coding langauge before my numbers):

    NY Times on June 10th had experts estimating 25k-30k of oil spewing a day.  I haven’t followed closely so I’ll use the June 10th figure to see how much has spilled.  Blast happened on April 20th.   That’s 50 days between the two dates.  From the experts estimates that’s anywhere between 1.25 million to 1.5 million barrels.  According to there’s 42 gallons of oil in a barrel. We all know what a gallon of milk looks like.  So that’s anywhere from 52.5 million to 63million gallons of oil according to experts or 1.26 million gallons a day.  And I’m sure my June 10th date is inaccurate. According to the EPA and Encyclopedia Britannica there are 643 quadrillion gallons of water in the Gulf.  This oil by my lowballed estimates is 000000008% of the Gulf's total volume.  Now is that over $20 billion dollars worth of damages.  I have no idea, but shit...that's a lot of gallons of oil.  But then again the Gulf is a lot more of gallons of water.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 19:52 | 482220 SRV - ES339
    SRV - ES339's picture

    CD... shame on you for finding such a sleazy way around the rules.

    So, you are a Goldman mole after all... lol!!!!!

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:20 | 481727 jeb3
    jeb3's picture

    Hahahahahahaha.  You're a funny guy, you

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:27 | 481761 HEHEHE
    HEHEHE's picture

    Actually that is not the case.  They've used a dispersant to try and make the oil soluble with the sea-water.   Essentially they are conducting a science experiment in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:34 | 481782 Boilermaker
    Boilermaker's picture

    I believe the contention is that the vast majority of the spill is actually below the surface.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:05 | 481872 thesapein
    thesapein's picture

    edit: nm, wrong post, lost track, sorry.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 18:12 | 482033 Augustus
    Augustus's picture

    The vast majority of the spill that was not methane has evaporated.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 21:44 | 482431 Chump
    Chump's picture

    It has to get to the surface to evaporate.

    NOAA wasted a bunch of money and then lied all over the place, apparently.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:01 | 481870 thesapein
    thesapein's picture

    Yeah, never got that. There was never a good reason, and lots of reasons to want to gather it all up. Can we get the chemical that can pull it all back together so we can clean this mess up?

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:33 | 481776 Dapper Dan
    Dapper Dan's picture

    Please define "most" as in "they captured most of the oil".

    Thanks dapper.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:38 | 481798 flagg707
    flagg707's picture

    Captured "most" of the oil?  Are you high?  Please provide data to back up that assertion.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 19:28 | 482181 YourAverageDebtSlave
    YourAverageDebtSlave's picture

    I wanna smoke whatever he's got.  See my comment above.  Anywhere between 1.25 million to 1.5 million barrels had hit the Gulf as of June 10th according to experts estimates.

    BP came out 2 weeks later stating they had captured 348k (and knowing BP's numbers probably more like 200k).

    Unless something has magically happened in the last 30 days, I don't see how his assertion has any merit.

    Thu, 07/22/2010 - 00:09 | 482823 Temporalist
    Temporalist's picture

    I'm not your buddy guy.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:49 | 481838 First There Is ...
    First There Is A Mountain's picture

    Remind us again which Big Oil Corp pays you to troll this board??

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 18:13 | 482036 Augustus
    Augustus's picture

    Shilling for Simmons should be done in a less obvious way.  He won't pay for a shoddy job like the one you are performing.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:53 | 481849 EscapeKey
    EscapeKey's picture

    Tone it down a bit. It's too obvious.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:11 | 481684 Boilermaker
    Boilermaker's picture

    Yea, I was actually watching that live on Bloomberg earlier today.  I think he's right and I think he's not the only one with his beliefs.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:14 | 481693 Boilermaker
    Boilermaker's picture

    Wow, Noah.  I grew up in Ft. Walton Beach.  Small world.  Good to know the sugar white miracle mile is looking good.  It would be horrible to see it a brown sugar beach.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:09 | 481881 Panafrican Funk...
    Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

    Hasn't hit Destin yet, but it's hit Florida for sure.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 19:12 | 482158 Cathartes Aura
    Cathartes Aura's picture

    noticed the post you replied to had 19 junks, so I'm sticking it here for reference.

    by Noah Vail
    on Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:20


    heh, I went looking for oil over a dozen times and not once did I find a single glob. I heard that a little came ashore one night, but they got to it by early morning. So, yes, the sugar sand remains unsullied. Pensacola and Orange Beach had some come ashore, but nothing that was not easily scooped up. The worst part of this whole thing is what the stinking media did to us by blowing this out of proportion and scaring everyone away. Those that do come here say "Where the hell's the oil?"


    And we say, "Well, try CNN, you'll see lots of it there."

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 18:14 | 482037 Augustus
    Augustus's picture

    The city should sue Geo Wash.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 19:54 | 482224 Frankie Carbone
    Frankie Carbone's picture

    Well Noah's gonna get junked again but I wanted to bring everyone's attention to this quote from him: 

    heh, I went looking for oil over a dozen times and not once did I find a single glob. I heard that a little came ashore one night, but they got to it by early morning. So, yes, the sugar sand remains unsullied. Pensacola and Orange Beach had some come ashore, but nothing that was not easily scooped up. The worst part of this whole thing is what the stinking media did to us by blowing this out of proportion and scaring everyone away. Those that do come here say "Where the hell's the oil?"


    Noah. I live in Florida. East Coast now, West Coast for 8 years prior. Say, you live in Florida too? Hmm. You know, if this spill actually IS bad, that might hurt business and the local economy, right? 


    What I'm saying is that it appears that you have a conflict of interest here. Capiche? 


    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:12 | 481889 thesapein
    thesapein's picture

    Anyone who thinks they have to see a poison, toxin, whatever, before it can kill them has no reason then to watch this (again? -can't remember where I got it from):

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:16 | 481704 Muir
    Muir's picture


    I've lived in Fl 45+ years.

    It's too early to know.

    Monstrous red tide blooms in the coming years?

    And, no, I'm not short BP. 

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:17 | 481708 Moe Gamble
    Moe Gamble's picture

    The condition of Destin beaches in no way either confirms or disproves Matt Simmons' claims.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:33 | 481778 DonnieD
    DonnieD's picture

    Totally agree. What's washing up on the Destin beaches in July of 2010, frankly, doesn't mean shit. The true ecological impact will take years to understand. Those dispersants they are using to keep the oil buried in the Gulf don't seem kosher to me. BP's strategy is out of sight, out of mind, at least until they can wash their hands of this fiasco and leave it to someone else to clean up.



    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:54 | 481854 Boilermaker
    Boilermaker's picture

    Well, it's going to make for a very interesting hurrican season.  The first Cat 3 to roll up into the GoM will definately prove or disprove alot.

    That's when the rubber will hit the road.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:19 | 481720 homersimpson
    homersimpson's picture

    I'm no BP shorter either but forgive me if I'm not exactly convinced BP/Feds have this issue under control as of yet given their track record on this matter.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:44 | 481822 Prof Gulliver
    Prof Gulliver's picture

    Hmmm. Destin plus your writing style may be giving you away. Hello Mr. Denninger.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:52 | 481846 First There Is ...
    First There Is A Mountain's picture

    Good call . . . he was pretty adamant that this was just a minor bump in the road several days ago in one of his rather lengthy tirades.

    Thu, 07/22/2010 - 09:50 | 483291 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
    Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

    Guys, at some point "swine flu" was a BFD, too, so were Volcanos holding up air traffic.  Can't we just all be rational and read the technical discussions on The Oil Drum? They don't even mention Simmons b/c his ideas are, for the most part, way, way WRONG.

    Why ZH posts these shock stories, geez..What next, the drunk lady who claims BP insiders told her everything, and then was seen obviously drunk talking about tsunamis killing everyone on the Gulf.

    Come on people.


    ZH, guys there is a point where perhaps we jump the shark here.

    Thu, 07/22/2010 - 10:16 | 483347 WaterWings
    WaterWings's picture

    Symptoms for a much, much, much bigger problem. Here are some more of them:

    Listen to all the grenades in this one:

    ZH, guys there is a point where perhaps we jump the shark here.

    If that were true it would still be an all-time classic because the downside is mass starvation and war.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:50 | 481843 tahoebumsmith
    tahoebumsmith's picture

    Yeah just looked at the Destin web cam! So packed you can't even find a spot.. lol

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:56 | 481859 Boilermaker
    Boilermaker's picture

    Yea, that's a bit damning to a hardcore position on the matter...

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:06 | 481876 dark pools of soros
    dark pools of soros's picture

    Welcome to Desolate Beach!

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:11 | 481886 SteveNYC
    SteveNYC's picture

    I think it's too early to tell whether this will be a "mega catastrophe", or not. It is bad, no doubt. The fact that this shit spilled into the gulf at this bad. There is no way around that.

    However, we don't know if it is going to dissipate and have minimal impact...or, if a hurricane will pick this shit up and spray it all over your lawn and house.

    Until then, chill.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:14 | 481695 Muir
    Muir's picture


    36.11 USD

    $0.91 (+2.59%) Though shorting is my second favorite activity, no thanks.
    Thu, 07/22/2010 - 00:55 | 482911 Mark Beck
    Mark Beck's picture

    Its easy, hurricane forming in the Carribean Sea, short BP.

    Storm surge and heavy seas over the spill area, will probably backrupt BP. It will be one hell of a mess. Oil being carried inland a mile or so.

    Mark Beck

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:15 | 481700 I am a Man I am...
    I am a Man I am Forty's picture

    This is nonsense.

    BTW, more nonsense from Bernanke.  He just said that borrowing from the fed and buying treasuries was not an arbitrage play.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 21:24 | 482386 FEDbuster
    FEDbuster's picture

    No, it's a Statue of Liberty, double reverse, quantitative easing reach around for the Federal Government.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:16 | 481701 surferexx
    surferexx's picture

    "deep oil lake"

    I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that this would not be visible from the beach.......

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:32 | 481740 truont
    truont's picture

    Simmons talks about a "lake" of oil deep underwater.  Others call them "plumes" of oil, or little lakes of oil.  Read this, only 1/21 of the oil spilled has been detected on the coastline:

    "Yet 20 times as much oil from this one has only shown up on 600 miles of coastline?"

    It’s the plumes, Kendall said [renowned wildlife toxicologist]. The oil is suspended in mammoth globs below the surface, out of the reach of the best natural dispersant — the sun. The temperatures at those depths are basically preserving the giant globs “like a giant refrigerator.”

    “I think (the plumes are) the beast that we’re going to have to deal with in the future,” he said, especially once more hurricanes and tropical storms stir them.

    Veritas vos liberabit

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:26 | 481752 WaterWings
    WaterWings's picture

    Noah even took out his binoculars. "See! I told you!"

    Noah must not care about ppm either.

    Go swimming then. Eat up the shrimp.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:18 | 481706 wintermute
    wintermute's picture

    Matt Simmons has become a total crank. What a shame for someone who knew his subject so well - going right off the rails.

    1$ Trillion for cleanup is just like Dr. Evil asking for a $100 Billion ransom from the 1960's president. A 2-year old thinking of a big number.

    I hope for his sake that he closed his BP short. Or he will be bankrupt in a few months time.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:27 | 481760 Dr. No
    Dr. No's picture

    But first he asked for a million...snicker.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:33 | 481939 Yardfarmer
    Yardfarmer's picture

    " (Simmons) was unceremoniously stripped of his Chairman Emeritus title at his own firm and namesake, Simmons & Company (who, in my view, is just a “dime a dozen” investment bank without the benefit of Mr. Simmons’ leadership and expertise). Can you imagine that?!?! Kicking your chairman out for having the gall to opine (aided by information from the aforementioned Rolodex of contacts) that BP might have been lying? I guess Simmons & Co. is desperate to whore to “lying Tony” for the holy grail, a placement in the syndicate for a potential multi-billion stock offering by BP to “save the company” once the lying is sufficiently mainstreamed. Just incredible."     Andy Hoffman

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:17 | 481709 AEGeneral
    AEGeneral's picture

    Congressional Medal of Hero?

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:18 | 481711 jeb3
    jeb3's picture

    Dont worry, Matt Simmons can't be right... the TV says he cant. The experts say he cant. The well placed ROVs, our only real eyes down there, say he cant.  I mean common, why would BP / USGovt / Mass Media lie to us???? They always get everything right.

    *turns back on made-for-TV movie: "BP Rig Fire / Riser Leak / Oil Spill episode 90: Don't worry it's almost over, everything will be fine tomorrow or the day after... or the day after..."

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:29 | 481764 Internet Tough Guy
    Internet Tough Guy's picture

    No one credible is saying anything like what Simmons says. Plus, it would be foolish of the adminstration to cover up a disaster when they could blame it all on BP. Simmons has made wild claims about gases killing everyone on the Gulf coast. Do you believe that scientists wouldn't have brought that up if it were at all possible?

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:40 | 481807 Problem Is
    Problem Is's picture

    " it would be foolish of the adminstration..."

    Well so far... the "administration" as an excellent track record on foolish...

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:41 | 481811 flagg707
    flagg707's picture

     @Internet Tough Guy:  I tend to agree and hope you are right, but then again I never would have expected BP to lie about the initial rate of the spill (which was easy to calculate when they released the images) for over a month.  I really hope Mr. Simmons is the one who is inaccurate in this case.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:10 | 481885 dark pools of soros
    dark pools of soros's picture

    with Universities taking the $10 million bribes from BP to trash their research for 3 years no wonder no one is coming forward...

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 20:05 | 482246 Frankie Carbone
    Frankie Carbone's picture

    Argumentum ad vercundiam. 

    Argumentum ad populum. 

    Argumentum flunkum basic logicus. 

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 22:03 | 482491 tom a taxpayer
    tom a taxpayer's picture

    I need a Venn diagram.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:18 | 481712 Overleveraged_a...
    Overleveraged_and_Impatient's picture

    Amazing how wide ranging opinions are about the severity of the Gulf Coast oil spill. I've heard people say that every 9 days BP makes enough cash to clean up the whole spill... vs. this....

    1000 barrells per day vs up to 200,000 per day.

    Who is lying? Who is telling the truth? Matt Simmons now has a ve$ted intere$t in BP crumbling, so why would'nt he try to scare everyone by throwing a Trillion bomb.

    I really don't know who to trust.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:43 | 481819 nonclaim
    nonclaim's picture

    Trust no one... No one knows how bad it is or for how long oil will wash up on the shores, but the clean up will take a long, very long time.

    BP will fold in a few years under the cost of clean up and what not. But not before its most valuable assets are sold for peanuts to a few, smaller companies that will then merge into NewBP with headquarters somewhere else. That's how it usually works...

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:12 | 481891 dark pools of soros
    dark pools of soros's picture

    a few pelicans would go short BP too if they could...

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 19:54 | 482226 oddjob
    oddjob's picture

    You think the third largest drilling platform in the world was parked over a well producing a paltry 1000 bpd?...try 200 k+

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:20 | 481716 The Rogue Trader
    The Rogue Trader's picture

    Slowly but surely Simmons' case is coming out into the MSM...he is the real deal as far as I am concerned...BP cannot be trusted, hell they even photoshopped pics that don't matter....and trust the Regime....ha!

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:26 | 481754 Cognitive Dissonance
    Cognitive Dissonance's picture

    While it's certain that much of what Matt says strains credulity (such as a massive oil lake or the BOP blown from the well that now lacks any casing) his estimates of the oil flow and severity were from the very beginning very close to where BP and the Gvt have finally admitted is (or was) reality.

    When loud voices scream that I should ignore someone, I have a tendency to listen to the person being shouted down a little bit closer. The favorite technique of those who are trying to hide something is to shout down anyone who might be considered credible and who's speaking against the "official" line. It sometimes pays dividends to listen to those that the powers that be insist we shouldn't listen to.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:37 | 481796 traderjoe
    traderjoe's picture

    He gets a little too extreme in his comments but it's hard to argue anything right now with the complete lack of information being provided. And any information being provided has a clear conflict of interest associated with it. 

    I too think the stock goes to $1. Haven't shorted it because that might be a slow process. At the very least, they are selling cash flowing assets to pay immediate expenses, never good for long-term value. 

    OT: I have a little crush on Lizzie. She had a tough time getting her hair done down in the Gulf (baseball caps) - it's a bit blonder now too. 

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:45 | 481813 Problem Is
    Problem Is's picture

    "The favorite technique of those who are trying to hide something is to shout down anyone who might be considered credible and who's speaking against the "official" line."

    This is why your are the ZH Professor of Rhetoric... CD.

    BTW: What douche would junk you for such a calm, logical statement?

    An angry screaming unfulfilled douche?

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 18:36 | 482092 NotApplicable
    NotApplicable's picture

    If only we could see who junked what, perhaps the douchebaggery junk-fest would abate?

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 21:22 | 482137 Jim_Rockford
    Jim_Rockford's picture

    Whoaaaaa.... I thought the favorite activity was to psychoanalyse and to accuse of "control issues".  True??

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 20:55 | 482335 Cammy Le Flage
    Cammy Le Flage's picture

    Simmons is not the only one saying there is a massive oil lake....

    The "fringe" or the one being described as crazy is sometimes right on target - in fact, usually but the reality of that truth is not realized until it has happened.   Further - no one - I mean no one and I just went to a DERM meeting in Florida is testing any Florida waters for the Water/Oil/Dispersant mixture, which cannot be "seen" as it is clear.  

    Unfortunately, no one knows the real truth about any of this and we will most likely not know the "truth" until they have to realize it for themselves.  It is disconcerting that a lot of people are focusing on money - money cannot - absolutely cannot - clean this mess up and this is a pretty nice body of water that is a necessary place for some decent life on this planet.  Money has never cleaned up environmental disasters.  Ever.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 21:00 | 482340 spanish inquisition
    spanish inquisition's picture

    A lot of what you say also depends on when you say it. Two weeks head of the actual leak numbers means you are prescient ( or have a good network). A month and change ahead and you are probably a nut job.


    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 21:03 | 482343 Village Idiot
    Village Idiot's picture

    "When loud voices scream that I should ignore someone, I have a tendency to listen to the person being shouted down a little bit closer. The favorite technique of those who are trying to hide something is to shout down anyone who might be considered credible and who's speaking against the "official" line. It sometimes pays dividends to listen to those that the powers that be insist we shouldn't listen to."


    Words to live by.  Who's the perp that junked this?  Show yourself. (sarcasm off)

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:20 | 481723 wang
    wang's picture

    Is this April 1?

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:20 | 481724 Bam_Man
    Bam_Man's picture

    Here in Destin our beaches are jammed with tourists

    Those 50% off vacation rental deals did the trick, apparently.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:29 | 481765 Deflationburger...
    Deflationburger with Fleas's picture

    Yep, my friend did that last weekend.  And saw tar balls on his last day there.  Someone isnt being very honest and is running their mouth.  I'm not one to name names though.  **cough cough Noah Vail cough**

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 20:31 | 482286 RichardP
    RichardP's picture

    Noah did say that the little bit of oil that shows up is cleaned up right away.  How does seeing tar balls negate Noah's claim?

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:20 | 481725 ZackAttack
    ZackAttack's picture

    Assuming it is true, of course the administration and BP would be in collusion.

    WTF is the president going to say? The 4th largest state economy in the US, whose primary revenue generator is tourism, is going to be turned into the Forbidden Zone for a generation, and you really shouldn't eat any seafood, buy a condo or start a business there?  

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 20:23 | 482271 russki standart
    russki standart's picture

    Exactly. The ObamaMessiah will go down in US history as the president who presided over the worst environmental in US history, and allowed BP to cover it up.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 21:35 | 482409 superman07
    superman07's picture

    And I dont necessarily think it will be the worst thing he may be known for by the time his term is up.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:20 | 481726 jkruffin
    jkruffin's picture

    Throw in a China spill, and we might see new life forms growing in the oceans soon.


    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:25 | 481750 aheady
    aheady's picture

    Yeah, that's just about the nastiest bunch of shit I've ever seen.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:15 | 481896 dark pools of soros
    dark pools of soros's picture

    do you think he will become a super hero or a villain

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 19:09 | 482151 aheady
    aheady's picture

    I'm leaning toward villain.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 19:51 | 482218 MsCreant
    MsCreant's picture

    Oil Man: The Spawning of Dick Cheney.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 21:35 | 482408 aheady
    aheady's picture

    J.R. Ewing?

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:21 | 481733 rmsnickers
    rmsnickers's picture

    Can we just stop posting the Matt Simmons BS until he cites some of the sources for his info?  His non-stop proclamations are worthless if he won't at least back some of them up.  Over at TOD, they have posed multiple questions and refutations of what he is saying; it would go a long way towards establishing credibility if he would just address them.  Besides, what does he have to lose if the actual truth gets out?  I bet he would like to close out his shorts at 0 the sooner the better.  Until he does this, I say he is full of shit.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:30 | 481769 Internet Tough Guy
    Internet Tough Guy's picture

    Matt Simmons = Project Mayhem?

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:39 | 481802 traderjoe
    traderjoe's picture

    Then don't read the article. 

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:57 | 481861 rmsnickers
    rmsnickers's picture

    Tough to ignore the top article highlighted with its own spiffy blue box.  Point taken though, to each his own.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:24 | 481907 Monkey Craig
    Monkey Craig's picture

    Can we just stop posting the Matt Simmons BS until he cites some of the sources for his info?


    he cites NOAA in this Bloomberg interview and in the King World News interview (which I highly recommend)

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 18:54 | 482128 Strider52
    Strider52's picture

    Hmmm, what is website TOD?

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 19:31 | 482185 Cathartes Aura
    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:21 | 481735 doublethink
    doublethink's picture

    Today's Zero Hedge is simply outstanding. With apologies to George Orwell, all I can say is "Good blogging is like a windowpane." Thank you!

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 20:34 | 482298 RichardP
    RichardP's picture

    The five blind men trying to figure out what an elephant looked like had a pretty good blog too.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 20:51 | 482329 God
    God's picture

    Today's Zero Hedge is simply outstanding. With apologies to George Orwell, all I can say is "Good blogging is like a windowpane."

    God approves.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:23 | 481739 TonyV
    TonyV's picture

    He sounds desperate. Desperate like a man who is getting the margin calls...

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 20:25 | 482275 russki standart
    russki standart's picture

    Sure, as a multi billionaire, I am sure that Matt shorted his entire fortune, and is lying awake at night worrying about it instead of covering and saving at least a billion.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 21:47 | 482446 Cognitive Dissonance
    Cognitive Dissonance's picture

    I've listen to ever interview I've been made aware of. And anytime he's been asked how much he's short BP, he has consistently said 4,000 shares.

    That's not a large short position for a man of his wealth. I don't know if he is now a billionaire but he said some years ago when he wrote his book that has has several tens of millions accumulated from his life's work and "some" of that was being invested in his newest venture.

    Either way, 4,000 short BP is not a large position. If he were long, he would have $144,000 invested at $36 per share. Since he's short, he has less invested. And he was shorting since this started. I remember him saying he was short in an interview a few days after the rig sunk. So he's in the money by a large margin.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 22:34 | 482593 Arthor Bearing
    Arthor Bearing's picture

    Hm it wouldn't seem prudent to throw away your job and professional reputation for the sake of that much money when you're already rich

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:24 | 481743 resipsaloquacious
    resipsaloquacious's picture

    'A Pox on both their houses.'   I am no BP fan, and I am sure they are scurrying like crazy to hide the truth of what is going on down their, but this Simmons guy is a fucking leech, a disaster profiteer who is shitting his pants because everyday the knews out of the GoM gets a little worse for his shorts. 

    Anyone with half a brain can see the following non-statement for what it is, pure BS: "What we don’t know anything about is the open hole which is caused by the drill bit when it tossed the blow-out preventer way out of the hole…" 

    Now you are just flailing Matt. 

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:34 | 481783 wintermute
    wintermute's picture

    +100. Exactly.

    Drill bit blown out of the well bore taking the 400-ton BOP with it. And he said this live!!!. Haahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahaahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahaahahhha - drill bit hahahahahahahhahahaha 1$ per share hahahahahahhhhahahhaha. It's too much..


    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 20:57 | 482338 God
    God's picture

    Don't forget about how the drill bit became a projectile. The forces behind the explosion. Plus the buoyancy factor in salt water and it's affect on a 400 ton object.

    Not looking to argue, jus sayin.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:32 | 481938 Moe Gamble
    Moe Gamble's picture

    I've been reading Matt Simmons for years. What I've noticed about him is that he usually has excellent sources, but often gets the technical details wrong when trying to explain to others what his sources have told him. So naturally his opponents try to discredit him by focusing on details he got wrong.

    He may also be a bit given to passion, probably because he has been trying for so long to explain limitations in future oil production to a bunch of non-listening idiots. (Enough to drive anyone crazy.) So, my assumption is that he's fundamentally right, but probably wrong in the details and also in degree. BP has probably essentially killed the Gulf of Mexico, and people will probably be getting sick from exposure to one thing or another down there, but we're probably not going to see the entire population of the Gulf coast falling over dead.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 18:45 | 482107 NotApplicable
    NotApplicable's picture

    You mean like the technical detail of the BOP still standing upright even though he claims it was blown off the well bore?

    My take is that each and every player in this game, is exactly that, a player in a game. BP and Fedgov covering up their incompetence? Absolutely.

    Simmons talking his shorts? Well, there he is, making unsubstantiated, easily refutable claims, so take that for what it's worth. I'll only believe him if he donates his short profit to the clean-up effort. As for BP and Fedgov, that's easy. They aren't human, so I'll never believe those who speak for them.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 19:51 | 482217 diffusing
    diffusing's picture


    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 20:37 | 482306 RichardP
    RichardP's picture

    But will you believe the oilpatch folks at when they bound the limits of what is possible through math and science?

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 22:26 | 482563 Pope Clement
    Pope Clement's picture

    Are you kidding ? Mathematicians have effed up the advancement of Science beyond all belief. Time to get back to the lab/reality and pay little heed to the equation jockeys and their phantasmagoric models. The map (or equation) is not the territory.

    Thu, 07/22/2010 - 01:27 | 482964 RichardP
    RichardP's picture

    You can't get down to the oil beneath the sea without adhering to math principles.  If you violate them, you won't get the oil.  Your point may be correct, but my point is what is at issue in this discussion of the well gusher.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 19:54 | 482225 Amish Hacker
    Amish Hacker's picture

    I want to like Matt Simmons. No one has done more to bring the topic of Peak Oil into public awareness and conversation than he has.  And I would like to think that he's going to be successful with his offshore wind project in Maine. The problem I'm having is that when Simmons gets it wrong, it's almost always in a way that makes him sound like just another tin foil hat. It really undercuts what is otherwise a lot of fine research.

    As far as the GOM being "dead," we probably won't know whether that's true or false for some time. The gulf is now a giant petri dish, and a vast experiment is underway. My guess is that it won't be about the beaches and the people, but about the bottom of the food chain, the little critters whose names we learned in high school biology but now have forgotten.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 23:48 | 482776 Bearish News
    Bearish News's picture

    GOM will never be truly dead. It's just a question of whether organisms like tuna and crabs or methane-munching microbes will win out in this new environment.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:26 | 481756 gasmiinder
    gasmiinder's picture

    I'm really disgusted with Bloomberg for continuing to demonstrate Mr Simmons loss of mental capacity to the world.  I have no doubt that many on this site will be supportive of "Matt Simmons energy industry expert" but you should keep in mind that you are buying into the notion that everything you have seen is faked.  EVERYTHING.  When the well is killed soon by pumping cement around and into the casing that is supporting the BOP and Cap Mr Simmons will claim that is fake as well as his super duper ultra dense oil hides down at the base of the ocean.  I'm just staggered that BP could put together such a "show" and keep it a secret, all those boats and ROV's and people cleaning beaches, hell it's probably costing a trillion dollars just for the payoffs to keep them all quiet.  Yes Mr Simmons believes all the oil that has been collected and has landed into Louisiana's marshes and Alabama's beaches is condensate that came out of the riser.  You Simmons believers should go ahead and book your rooms for next year's convention, I'll bet that you can get even better bulk rates when you combine the truthers - birthers - and now gulfers all into one site (oh wait, it's probably all the same people................................)

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:45 | 481826 BlackBelt
    BlackBelt's picture

    I'm a finance guy so I have no way of validating or invalidating Mr. Simmons...but my father was chairman of WHOI for a time and has over 40 years experience in oceanography, as well as many contacts in the industry.  He was a candidate to be chairman of the oceanographic division of the NSF and is a PhD Geochemist.  Although he is not an expert on oil drilling technology, he says this guy must be taking bong hits of meth to make statements like this.  His exact words were "this guy is crazy".  I don't know Mr. Simmons or his agenda but I can tell you my father has none.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:07 | 481878 Cognitive Dissonance
    Cognitive Dissonance's picture

    Man, your dad sounds like a real cool stoner. All my dad would ever do was suck on his Marlboro's and pour another scotch on the rocks. Wanna swap?


    "...he says this guy must be taking bong hits of meth to make statements like this."


    Don't bogart that my friend. Pass it over to me.

    Thu, 07/22/2010 - 01:16 | 482947 Broken_Trades
    Broken_Trades's picture

    The company man was 32 years old and has twice pleaded the 5th

    He invited the higher ups to the rig and they were 'partying' on the rig...


    Now, I will not lie - I've seen all sorts of drugs and alcohol on the rigs.  Offshore?  They XRAY your freaking bags and pat you down before you get on the helicopter.  In the north sea they always tell you about the guy who injected vodka into navel oranges and tried to bring that out... Not sure about the GOM where you can take a boat, but im sure the security is just as high.


    So when matt simmons says they were 'partying'.  I'm sure that meant coffee or tea.  This guy is off his rocker.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:36 | 481936 barkingbill
    barkingbill's picture

    I think most of what people believe from the MSM is fake. C'mon man wake up. Building 7, Saddam's WMDs, Swine Flu Propaganda, reassurances of economic growth, the New York Times and their Iran demagogy, lies, lies, and more lies. fake, fake, fake. we live in a fake plastic world of bullshit. sorry thats the way i see it. and no i dont have an iphone. 

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:35 | 481944 Moe Gamble
    Moe Gamble's picture

    No, really all you have to do is keep the cameras away from a particular area. We've already seen that BP and the gov't are willing to have reporters arrested for looking in areas where they're not wanted.

    Wed, 07/21/2010 - 19:55 | 482231 diffusing
    diffusing's picture

     "When the well is killed soon by pumping cement around and into the casing that is supporting the BOP and Cap .."


    when and if this happens, that will be great for all of us.  until then, im skeptical of everything.


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