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May PPI Comes In At 0.2%, Higher Than Expected 0.1%, Eleventh Consecutive Increase; Retail Sales Slightly Better Than Expected

Tyler Durden's picture


US May PPI came in at 0.2% sequentially, on expectations of 0.1%, and down from 0.8% previously. This was the 11th consecutive increase in PPI. The 12 month change in PPI came at a multi year high 7.3%, much higher than the 6.8% expected, which supposedly is a good thing: inflation is back. PPI ex food and energy was in ling with expectations at 2.1%. Elsewhere, the May Advance Monthly Sales came at -0.2%, on expectations of -0.5%, down from a lower revised 0.3%. Retail sales ex auto and gas came at 0.3% on expectations of 0.2%, with the previous revised lower to 0.2% from 0.3%. Stocks appear to enjoy the increasing inflation on declining economic output.

From the PPI Data:

Looking at the various stages of production we see the following: "The May advance in the finished goods index can be traced primarily to prices for finished energy goods, which rose 1.5 percent. The index for finished goods less foods and energy moved up 0.2 percent. By contrast, prices for finished consumer foods fell 1.4 percent in May...The Producer Price Index for intermediate materials, supplies, and components moved up 0.9 percent in May, the tenth consecutive monthly increase. About two-thirds of the May rise can be traced to a 0.9-percent advance in prices for intermediate goods other than foods and energy. A 1.4-percent jump in the index for intermediate energy goods also contributed to the increase in intermediate goods prices."

Crude goods dropped by 4.1%, primarily on the back of energy: "The index for crude energy materials declined 5.2 percent in May. From February to May, prices for crude energy materials fell 1.2 percent subsequent to a 17.0-percent increase for the 3 months ending in February. The monthly decrease was the result of a 10.9-percent drop in crude petroleum prices. The index for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs decreased 4.4 percent in May. From February to May, prices for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs edged down 0.3 percent following a 12.2-percent rise in the previous 3-month period. Over thirty percent of the monthly decline in prices forcrude foodstuffs and feedstuffs can be traced to a 5.8-percent decrease in the index for slaughter steers and heifers. The index for crude nonfood materials less energy moved down 0.9 percent in May. For the 3-month period ending in May, crude core prices decreased 0.7 percent after advancing 10.0 percent from November to February. A major contributor to the monthly decline was the index for copper base scrap, which fell 4.7 percent.

As for retail sales, it was all about auto sales, which tumbled 2.9%. The ball is now and for the next quarter in Japan's court. Unless production picks up and unless GM actually makes a car people want to buy, this number will not be pretty for a while.

And Goldman's full take:


1. Retail sales declined by 0.2% (mom) in May, a smaller drop than expected. Motor vehicle and parts sales declined, consistent with disappointing unit vehicle sales for the month. This component subtracted 0.5 percentage points from the month-over-month change. Weakness in auto-related components was partially offset by strength elsewhere. Core retail sales-excluding autos, gas and building materials-rose by 0.2% (mom), and the result for April was revised up slightly. Spending increased for health and personal care products stores, clothing stores, and non-store retailers. Overall the report suggests a possible stabilization after a long period of weaker-than-expected US activity data.

2. Headline producer prices increased by two tenths in May, down from 0.8% in April. The increase is mainly driven by lower food prices (-1.4%) while energy prices continue to rise (+1.5%). Core finished producer prices rose in line with expectations, up 0.2% on the month. At the intermediate stage of processing, the core index rose 0.9%, down from 1.1% in April.

3. This morning's data had minor implications for our assessment of real activity. Our Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for May moved up slightly, to 1.2% from 1.1% before the retail sales report. We continue to see downside risk to our 3% forecast for Q2 GDP growth, but these data did not affect our GDP tracking estimates.


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Tue, 06/14/2011 - 08:48 | 1367316 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Futures up on China and US PPI news... PMs aren't following though.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 08:51 | 1367319 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Inflation is transitory, didn't you here?  Gas and food will go down . . . at some point . . . in the future . . .

So we ignore that stuff and absolutely focus on the slight beat of expectation on people spending money they don't have.  I mean don't you get it?


Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:21 | 1367392 augie
augie's picture

nothing like a little rampant consumerism to obfuscate any perceived relevance on the public. Looks like we have a ways to go before the storm clouds roll in. 

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:37 | 1367426 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Inflation (official) at 0.5%, retail sales (ex Food/Autos) up 0.3%.

Do the transitory math.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 08:53 | 1367324 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well gee I thought the plan was Ben would now take down the markets in spectacular fashion and make everyone beg for QE3...seems instead he's going to repump DOW 12,000. Yea like anyone has a clue what the maniacal monetizers will do next.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 08:57 | 1367343 Cdad
Cdad's picture

And even the once venerable Art Cashin has now tossed his credibility, earned over decades of free market trading, on the bonfire of the Ponzi market and QE3 desires.

So let's all pretend that Best Buy's earnings report is worth 7% and forget that entire continents are broke, contracting, and dying at the hands of central banks.


Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:05 | 1367357 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Ignore huge earnings misses in a row but glom onto electronic retailer Best Buy's eek out of an expectations meet....and the crowd goes WILD in the face of world riots, governments firing on their own unarmed protestors, Europe splitting apart at the seams, HOORAY lets pump STAWKS!

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:07 | 1367366 Cdad
Cdad's picture

And never mind about's overrated.  Just gap the market on utter nonsense and expect folk to follow...because it has worked so well the last two years causing such a nice economic recovery.

As for that, who cares if the dollar implodes.  Announce QE3 this afternoon, and give the nation exactly what it deserves.

When every last Wall Street banker, trader, and analysts has arrived at the point when they will sell their cred for a one day fearful.  The host is dead.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:12 | 1367372 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Poor old Art, apparently reduced to another Blowhorn free crack addict jonesing for another hit. Throw all your credibility out the window boyz, its time to cling to DOW 12,000 like grim death.

Personally, I dont think Ben has a clear idea what he'll do next he's damned if he does, damned if he doesnt. I think he's scared shitless to let stocks go down, great danger of nothing bringing them back as 401K Brigades dump and leave the casino.


Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:24 | 1367386 Cdad
Cdad's picture


Are you suggesting that Mutual Fund redemption hour [aka 3-4 pm est] is the prevailing threat to the gap up, Ponzified, Roach Motel [SPY] driven, fraud riddled, bonus inducing, economy destroying stawk market?

I would suggest to you that, when even Art Cashin knows it, you are correct.  But what do I know?

See you at the mall, Dog!

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:29 | 1367415 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Must.......go to......mall.....must consume.....retail Gap t-shirts......must buy.....

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:51 | 1367455 Cdad
Cdad's picture

THE ULTIMATE TELL DOG...liquidity crisis forming up on the company most responsible for serving up edible streaming movies to hungry Americans whose federal unemployment insurance has expired.

Big time selling, more broadly, into the magical, fizzy lifting drinking Roach Motel.  Commence with the Great Intraday Betrayal.  And let us all stand back in gaze in horror as Art Cashin joins the chorus of those who think that money printing will cure the plague upon us.

Credibility for sale...credibility for sale...hard fought for...decades of postive a "historically cheap valuation."

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:46 | 1367453 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Trading institutions are generating revenue if the market goes up or down. That is part of the game.  If the interest earned on CDs and savings accounts and money markets and Treasuries and municipal bonds were more attractive than the perceived returns offered by stocks... and therefore no retail investors ever bought and sold stocks, there would be as much of a need for Wall Street.  How can oligarchs steal wealth from ordinary Americans if there is no Wall Street and TBTB banks and HFT algos that don't care about funamentals.  The market does not represent a vehicle for fair and open price discovery of equities.  It is about making as much money as possible for insiders and power brokers. They don't care if it doesn't make sense to us.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:51 | 1367461 Cdad
Cdad's picture

They don't care if it doesn't make sense to us.

That is my point.  If it makes no sense to "investors," then no capital will form to support it.  If the market continues to be only as viable as the day's counter trend rally, as its credibility is tossed on the fire for just one more gap up, that is the extent to which said market's fate is sealed.  Bring on the crocodile algo!

We.  Are.  Greece.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 10:30 | 1367544 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

We have a Fed Chairsatan who wants to spur inflation whilst punishing savers who would prefer to invest in fixed income.  We sure are lucky to have a Fed Chairsatan like him... (sarcasm)...

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:06 | 1367364 yipcarl
yipcarl's picture

Cdad....My sentiments EXACTLY...

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:16 | 1367381 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Cue up MORE STORIES ABOUT SHOPPING!  Let's get BlowHorn [CNBC] anchors out into the malls to do stories on what color Gap t-shirts are hot this quarter.  Let's focus on the utterly irrelevant as Greece walks up to the gallows and prepares to either be sold into slavery or revolt and default on the kleptocracy.

Let's rally banks...on the hopes that accounting is finally made illegal.  Bullish!

Is it bonus time yet?

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:25 | 1367394 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You know whats really glaring thru Cdad, is looking at everything over the last 6 months all we've had is everything sloshing around in a wash tub....nothing much is really higher, or lower, bunch of much ado about nothing. Equities about the same, commodities about the same currencies about the same...but to hear it from the Blowhorn theres great activity going on. Nothing but crap really.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:29 | 1367404 Cdad
Cdad's picture

...and the market moves from oversold to one premarket session.  Nice.

The BlowHorn will now demonstrate to the world that it is the Kingdom of Irrelevance.  Again, more credibility tossed on the funeral pyre of a dying nation.  Or maybe there is a credibility ETF that I don't know about...and it's all good.


Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:39 | 1367435 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

I closed out half my VXX position yesterday.  I'll be adding it back on (plus a bit more) today around 2:45PM.  Good luck.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:46 | 1367442 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture


Tue, 06/14/2011 - 10:35 | 1367444 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Trading institutions are generating revenue if the market goes up or down.  That is part of the game.  If the interest earned on CDs and savings accounts and money markets and Treasuries and municipal bonds were more attractive than the perceived returns offered by stocks... and therefore no retail investors ever bought and sold stocks, there would not be as much of a need for Wall Street.  How can oligarchs steal wealth from ordinary Americans if there is no Wall Street and TBTB banks and HFT algos that don't care about funamentals.  The market does not represent a vehicle for fair and open price discovery of equities.  It is about making as much money as possible for insiders and power brokers.  They don't care if it doesn't make sense to us.


Tue, 06/14/2011 - 10:38 | 1367567 kito
kito's picture

youre finally learning

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 08:49 | 1367325 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

In honor of the PPI my discretionary purchases will be much less this month.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 08:53 | 1367332 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Is long-shelflife food and ammo discretionary?

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:05 | 1367351 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

actually ammo is discretionary if one isn't trigger-happy.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:48 | 1367448 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Why choose? PYOL: pack your own loads.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:51 | 1367454 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

been there, done that. reloading 200 rounds a week gets old after awhile.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 10:32 | 1367539 snowball777
snowball777's picture

"When the world is running down..."

Gotta do something for entertainment in the bunker.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 08:53 | 1367328 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Well, you knew they would find a way to jack the futures.  Bravo chap...bravo <golf clap>

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 08:56 | 1367329 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Berkowitz and Miller bet client's money on financials and lose big. lmao

Death from a-BOVE! lololololol

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 08:56 | 1367330 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

I guess signs of inflation mean its time to slam the metals.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:46 | 1367452 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Honey, I shrunk the APMEx cart total.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 10:20 | 1367509 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I try to keep the cart totals the same regardless. What changes is the size of the step towards my total oz goals for Au and Ag.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 08:57 | 1367333 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

The market is in that mode where they will grab and hug any piece of slightly "good" news and juice prices for a day or two - like a drowning man grabbing his rescuer and pulling him under with him.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 08:57 | 1367346 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Agree.  I cannot believe the "Big Boys" will do anything but sell the open today.... while they tell Mom and Pop to buy! 


Tue, 06/14/2011 - 08:56 | 1367342 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

I think what everybody has missed is 'how' Fed can roll out QE3.  I like W Ross theory that blaming Congress for debt ceiling/deficit/austerity mess is the catalyst.  It seems to round the circle. 

I dont think Bernanke WANTS equities to get crushed.  But he needs an excuse to print so that was a logical one on which to focus.  he will never admit QE is not working.


Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:04 | 1367348 css1971
css1971's picture

QE1 & 2 did work. The US and EU banks will live and will be buying up everything they can lay their hands on at 20% of current market prices.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:04 | 1367361 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

QE worked great. It handed the banks risk free profits.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:05 | 1367353 docj
docj's picture

Sorry, I simply cannot believe anything - good or bad - these crapweasal criminals have to say about this economy (or much of anything else, for that matter) anymore.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:02 | 1367354 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

After 6 down weeks, and almost 8 down days in the last 9, we were due for a pop.

Here it is, enjoy.

Two years after the recession ended we are going to celebrate a "less bad" than expected report. Notwithstanding, that retail sales were lower for the first time in 11 months.

One assumes there is a reason why inflation adjusted retail sales are not reported. Can anyone elaborate on that reason?

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:09 | 1367368 Greeny
Greeny's picture

"Notwithstanding, that retail sales were lower for the first time in 11 months."

It's a May, not Christmas, I surprised that they

come out that "high" with 4$/gallon gas.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:11 | 1367371 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

my understanding is that it's a function of timing (i.e., CPI is not typically not available when retail sales are originally released).  You can get Real Retail Sales (e.g., St. Louis Fred) on a delayed basis.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:11 | 1367370 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

It's good to see the breakdown. What I see are some sectors still plunging...oops, I mean correcting (like overvalued house prices) and other sectors increasing (like ALL foods) or package sizes cut by a 3rd (like frozen berries).

RE runs in 10-12 year cycles so I don't expect house prices to stop "correcting" for at least 8 years. Even Wall Street analysts admit house prices will not stop falling until "the employment situation" picks up in the USA which they say won't happen for 8-9 years. So that ties in with the 10-12 year historic cycling of RE also.


Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:21 | 1367384 Greeny
Greeny's picture

"It's good to see the breakdown"

What kind of masochism is that? The most breakdown sector

is PM stocks, check them out, if you will, they've been

cut in half. So, basically you are happy, cause your

and mine

Silver going down the tubes as well, even faster than

general Market. Nice to watch that agony daily, right?

Enjoy counting your loses.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:25 | 1367402 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Whoever said to buy paper PM's? BTW those PM's 'down the tubes' are still WAY over historic highs...hell I was buying $13 silver 2 years ago and getting laughed at here when I said it would go over $20.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:28 | 1367413 Forward History
Forward History's picture

Dollar-cost averaging. Another reason to enjoy being a long.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:17 | 1367374 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Gold, silver still in correction mode. So far, usual summer doldrums.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:17 | 1367376 oogs66
oogs66's picture

This morning rally looks like it should be faded.  Nothing has improved that much.  The 8:30 numbers had some 'beats' but with revisions it wasn't particularly strong.

The credit markets are experiencing a typical short squeeze morning.  CDX Indices are all tighter and feel strong.  Single names are tighter but a little less strong, and cash is more hopeful of a rally than experiencing an actual rally.

So far in credit it is basically a fast money/hedging squeeze.  Need bonds to be well bid for a sustainable rally.  I don't see that, and expect we will see stocks struggle to hold onto the gains in futures - fast money/hedging equivalent of the CDX indices.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:18 | 1367378 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Yup, agree. We are dealing with a corrupt, broken system. I do not buy most stocks and have not for a long while.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:18 | 1367385 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Economic indicators rolling over suggests more QE but PPI came at a multi year high 7.3%.

Ben Bernanke is boxed in and should throw in the towel but he won't and we will see continued easing.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:26 | 1367397 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Yes, but not until the dollar has rallied considerably from here.  If he times it poorly, the disorderly decline in the dollar would consume any easing instantly.


Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:36 | 1367422 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture


But we still do need a decline in the dollar but a decline that everyone accepts gracefully without trying to frontrun it.

Central Bank thinkers are correct.  Central banks work most effectively when people are not aware of what central banks are doing, don't expect it, and don't frontrun it.  If everyone is a bagholder to some degree the pain is spread diffusely.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:43 | 1367446 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

RIGHT....what we're looking for is a crash, but has to be a 'wink-wink, nod nod' kind of crash that everyones in on.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:59 | 1367473 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Nice capitalism, Dog.  


Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:21 | 1367393 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

I'm noticing that anytime I think it's bad enough to go short, it's time buy and when I think it's getting better, it's time to sell.  Pathetic

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:50 | 1367458 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Reverse the polarity.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:26 | 1367399 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Paper silver still in correction mode while the COMEX is getting emptied of registered silver.

I give it to the end of July for the COMEX to be empty except if they force contract holders who want physical silver to accept cash + premium. That will teach those evil speculators.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:31 | 1367410 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

So declining retail sales is bullish for equities. Well duh!

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:55 | 1367462 snowball777
snowball777's picture

No more pesky stockers, clerks, or's the utopian business frontier.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:29 | 1367414 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

So far history is repeating itself.

Ben knows if we are lucky we will have moderate stagflation as we go back to the future.

Bell Bottoms? 

Guys feathering their hair with a blowdryer and parting it in the middle? 

Guys wearing V neck shirts with gold chains?

Leisure suits with pastoral prints on them?

I must burn every picture of my youth so that no evidence of my guilt exists.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 09:52 | 1367466 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I knew that Camaro was gonna be a steal to work on my handlebar moustache.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 10:13 | 1367498 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

I should just not go near my computer on days where CPI/PPI/Same Store Sales/Redbbok/Retail Sales are released because I know I am going to get mad, frustrated and generally P.O.'ed.

And everyone here is treating the data as if there were any accuracy to it at all when we know that the numbers are gamed, underreported.  Retail sales would have risen if the inflation numbers represented reality, but they are sales in dollars adjusted for inflation that have a deflator that is absurdly lower than reality, in fact sales not in dollars but in units sold and foot traffic are yet again down. 

Oh well, just means QE III will be that much richer.

Tue, 06/14/2011 - 10:14 | 1367505 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Interesting...the crocodile algo clearly has the financials by the leg.  But let's just ignore it and focus on "not as bad as expected" retails sales...while Best Buy full on reverses [bullish?] and the BlowHorn cues up reporters to hit the malls to see what the sheeple are buying as retail stock RSIs all universally hit infinity.

Brilliant!  Sounds like a great investment thesis.


Tue, 06/14/2011 - 10:52 | 1367600 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

yep and corporations want to squeeze more and more out their serfs(employees)  putting out crap like this:

Dear XXX


Regardless of your function in the organization, you understand the high cost of ethics and compliance lapses.  Half of observed misconduct never gets reported by employees, and as a result only 20% of information regarding key risks is reaching the appropriate decision point.  Communicating policies is important in risk prevention, but does little to drive risk response.


The CEOs from Bayer, GE, RBC, and Progressive -- all companies determined through our benchmarking to have high "Integrity Capital" -- convened last month for a unique event co-sponsored by the Corporate Executive Board (CEB) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to discuss with senior executives the business benefits of developing transparency around key ethics and compliance issues, which include:

  • 5.8 percentage points higher shareholder returns
  • Nearly two-thirds less business misconduct
  • 12% lower labor costs due to employees investing more discretionary effort


Tue, 06/14/2011 - 11:08 | 1367655 JR
JR's picture


"You would never know the economy is in recovery based on reports from the National Federation of Independent Business (June 2011) whose small business optimist index continues to move south, down three tenths in May to a recessionary level of 90.9. The report points to weak consumer spending as the main factor, one that’s hitting services which is a central sector to small businesses.  The report has a sharp political tone saying, without much detail, that Washington policies aren’t encouraging small business to hire. The report’s job creation indications are deteriorating with capital spending and inventory plans weakening.  One in four respondents say weak sales are their top problem.  Inflation is also cited as a major concern...

"Retail Sales in May are reported as falling .2%.  This is also a sharp deceleration from April’s prior supposed .5% gain.  Since I know this report vastly overstates real estate sales, I take a negative print here to mean that sales are really decelerating.  Remember, this report does not correct for real inflation, and it also suffers from survivor bias... Note that gasoline sales increased solely due to the rising price of gasoline – that does NOT equal products sold, it equals more money printed. Also note the downward revision for April…again." -- Nathan’s Economic Edge


Tue, 06/14/2011 - 13:49 | 1368208 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i think i blinked & missed the 10+% petro dip in the slewie PPI, brought to you today, by the letters P P T...

the y-0-y  + 7.3% already seems transitory.  rejoice! 


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