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May PPI Comes In At 0.2%, Higher Than Expected 0.1%, Eleventh Consecutive Increase; Retail Sales Slightly Better Than Expected
US May PPI came in at 0.2% sequentially, on expectations of 0.1%, and down from 0.8% previously. This was the 11th consecutive increase in PPI. The 12 month change in PPI came at a multi year high 7.3%, much higher than the 6.8% expected, which supposedly is a good thing: inflation is back. PPI ex food and energy was in ling with expectations at 2.1%. Elsewhere, the May Advance Monthly Sales came at -0.2%, on expectations of -0.5%, down from a lower revised 0.3%. Retail sales ex auto and gas came at 0.3% on expectations of 0.2%, with the previous revised lower to 0.2% from 0.3%. Stocks appear to enjoy the increasing inflation on declining economic output.
From the PPI Data:
Looking at the various stages of production we see the following: "The May advance in the finished goods index can be traced primarily to prices for finished energy goods, which rose 1.5 percent. The index for finished goods less foods and energy moved up 0.2 percent. By contrast, prices for finished consumer foods fell 1.4 percent in May.
..The Producer Price Index for intermediate materials, supplies, and components moved up 0.9 percent in May, the tenth consecutive monthly increase. About two-thirds of the May rise can be traced to a 0.9-percent advance in prices for intermediate goods other than foods and energy. A 1.4-percent jump in the index for intermediate energy goods also contributed to the increase in intermediate goods prices."
Crude goods dropped by 4.1%, primarily on the back of energy: "The index for crude energy materials declined 5.2 percent in May. From February to May, prices for crude energy materials fell 1.2 percent subsequent to a 17.0-percent increase for the 3 months ending in February. The monthly decrease was the result of a 10.9-percent drop in crude petroleum prices. The index for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs decreased 4.4 percent in May. From February to May, prices for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs edged down 0.3 percent following a 12.2-percent rise in the previous 3-month period. Over thirty percent of the monthly decline in prices forcrude foodstuffs and feedstuffs can be traced to a 5.8-percent decrease in the index for slaughter steers and heifers. The index for crude nonfood materials less energy moved down 0.9 percent in May. For the 3-month period ending in May, crude core prices decreased 0.7 percent after advancing 10.0 percent from November to February. A major contributor to the monthly decline was the index for copper base scrap, which fell 4.7 percent.
As for retail sales, it was all about auto sales, which tumbled 2.9%. The ball is now and for the next quarter in Japan's court. Unless production picks up and unless GM actually makes a car people want to buy, this number will not be pretty for a while.
And Goldman's full take:
MAIN POINTS:
1. Retail sales declined by 0.2% (mom) in May, a smaller drop than expected. Motor vehicle and parts sales declined, consistent with disappointing unit vehicle sales for the month. This component subtracted 0.5 percentage points from the month-over-month change. Weakness in auto-related components was partially offset by strength elsewhere. Core retail sales-excluding autos, gas and building materials-rose by 0.2% (mom), and the result for April was revised up slightly. Spending increased for health and personal care products stores, clothing stores, and non-store retailers. Overall the report suggests a possible stabilization after a long period of weaker-than-expected US activity data.
2. Headline producer prices increased by two tenths in May, down from 0.8% in April. The increase is mainly driven by lower food prices (-1.4%) while energy prices continue to rise (+1.5%). Core finished producer prices rose in line with expectations, up 0.2% on the month. At the intermediate stage of processing, the core index rose 0.9%, down from 1.1% in April.
3. This morning's data had minor implications for our assessment of real activity. Our Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for May moved up slightly, to 1.2% from 1.1% before the retail sales report. We continue to see downside risk to our 3% forecast for Q2 GDP growth, but these data did not affect our GDP tracking estimates.
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Futures up on China and US PPI news... PMs aren't following though.
Inflation is transitory, didn't you here? Gas and food will go down . . . at some point . . . in the future . . .
So we ignore that stuff and absolutely focus on the slight beat of expectation on people spending money they don't have. I mean don't you get it?
nothing like a little rampant consumerism to obfuscate any perceived relevance on the public. Looks like we have a ways to go before the storm clouds roll in.
Inflation (official) at 0.5%, retail sales (ex Food/Autos) up 0.3%.
Do the transitory math.
Well gee I thought the plan was Ben would now take down the markets in spectacular fashion and make everyone beg for QE3...seems instead he's going to repump DOW 12,000. Yea like anyone has a clue what the maniacal monetizers will do next.
And even the once venerable Art Cashin has now tossed his credibility, earned over decades of free market trading, on the bonfire of the Ponzi market and QE3 desires.
So let's all pretend that Best Buy's earnings report is worth 7% and forget that entire continents are broke, contracting, and dying at the hands of central banks.
Brilliant!
Ignore huge earnings misses in a row but glom onto electronic retailer Best Buy's eek out of an expectations meet....and the crowd goes WILD in the face of world riots, governments firing on their own unarmed protestors, Europe splitting apart at the seams, HOORAY lets pump STAWKS!
And never mind about credibility...it's overrated. Just gap the market on utter nonsense and expect folk to follow...because it has worked so well the last two years causing such a nice economic recovery.
As for that, who cares if the dollar implodes. Announce QE3 this afternoon, and give the nation exactly what it deserves.
When every last Wall Street banker, trader, and analysts has arrived at the point when they will sell their cred for a one day bounce...be fearful. The host is dead.
Poor old Art, apparently reduced to another Blowhorn free crack addict jonesing for another hit. Throw all your credibility out the window boyz, its time to cling to DOW 12,000 like grim death.
Personally, I dont think Ben has a clear idea what he'll do next he's damned if he does, damned if he doesnt. I think he's scared shitless to let stocks go down, great danger of nothing bringing them back as 401K Brigades dump and leave the casino.
Dog,
Are you suggesting that Mutual Fund redemption hour [aka 3-4 pm est] is the prevailing threat to the gap up, Ponzified, Roach Motel [SPY] driven, fraud riddled, bonus inducing, economy destroying stawk market?
I would suggest to you that, when even Art Cashin knows it, you are correct. But what do I know?
See you at the mall, Dog!
Must.......go to......mall.....must consume.....retail Gap t-shirts......must buy.....
THE ULTIMATE TELL DOG...liquidity crisis forming up on the company most responsible for serving up edible streaming movies to hungry Americans whose federal unemployment insurance has expired.
Big time selling, more broadly, into the magical, fizzy lifting drinking Roach Motel. Commence with the Great Intraday Betrayal. And let us all stand back in gaze in horror as Art Cashin joins the chorus of those who think that money printing will cure the plague upon us.
Credibility for sale...credibility for sale...hard fought for...decades of postive comps...at a "historically cheap valuation."
Trading institutions are generating revenue if the market goes up or down. That is part of the game. If the interest earned on CDs and savings accounts and money markets and Treasuries and municipal bonds were more attractive than the perceived returns offered by stocks... and therefore no retail investors ever bought and sold stocks, there would be as much of a need for Wall Street. How can oligarchs steal wealth from ordinary Americans if there is no Wall Street and TBTB banks and HFT algos that don't care about funamentals. The market does not represent a vehicle for fair and open price discovery of equities. It is about making as much money as possible for insiders and power brokers. They don't care if it doesn't make sense to us.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9mWAxHpeew&feature=related
That is my point. If it makes no sense to "investors," then no capital will form to support it. If the market continues to be only as viable as the day's counter trend rally, as its credibility is tossed on the fire for just one more gap up, that is the extent to which said market's fate is sealed. Bring on the crocodile algo!
We. Are. Greece.
We have a Fed Chairsatan who wants to spur inflation whilst punishing savers who would prefer to invest in fixed income. We sure are lucky to have a Fed Chairsatan like him... (sarcasm)...
Cdad....My sentiments EXACTLY...
Cue up MORE STORIES ABOUT SHOPPING! Let's get BlowHorn [CNBC] anchors out into the malls to do stories on what color Gap t-shirts are hot this quarter. Let's focus on the utterly irrelevant as Greece walks up to the gallows and prepares to either be sold into slavery or revolt and default on the kleptocracy.
Let's rally banks...on the hopes that accounting is finally made illegal. Bullish!
Is it bonus time yet?
You know whats really glaring thru Cdad, is looking at everything over the last 6 months all we've had is everything sloshing around in a wash tub....nothing much is really higher, or lower, bunch of much ado about nothing. Equities about the same, commodities about the same currencies about the same...but to hear it from the Blowhorn theres great activity going on. Nothing but crap really.
...and the market moves from oversold to overbought...in one premarket session. Nice.
The BlowHorn will now demonstrate to the world that it is the Kingdom of Irrelevance. Again, more credibility tossed on the funeral pyre of a dying nation. Or maybe there is a credibility ETF that I don't know about...and it's all good.
I closed out half my VXX position yesterday. I'll be adding it back on (plus a bit more) today around 2:45PM. Good luck.
.
Trading institutions are generating revenue if the market goes up or down. That is part of the game. If the interest earned on CDs and savings accounts and money markets and Treasuries and municipal bonds were more attractive than the perceived returns offered by stocks... and therefore no retail investors ever bought and sold stocks, there would not be as much of a need for Wall Street. How can oligarchs steal wealth from ordinary Americans if there is no Wall Street and TBTB banks and HFT algos that don't care about funamentals. The market does not represent a vehicle for fair and open price discovery of equities. It is about making as much money as possible for insiders and power brokers. They don't care if it doesn't make sense to us.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9mWAxHpeew&feature=related
youre finally learning
In honor of the PPI my discretionary purchases will be much less this month.
Is long-shelflife food and ammo discretionary?
actually ammo is discretionary if one isn't trigger-happy.
Why choose? PYOL: pack your own loads.
been there, done that. reloading 200 rounds a week gets old after awhile.
"When the world is running down..."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOVljWm7P-8
Gotta do something for entertainment in the bunker.
Well, you knew they would find a way to jack the futures. Bravo chap...bravo <golf clap>
Berkowitz and Miller bet client's money on financials and lose big. lmao
Death from a-BOVE! lololololol
I guess signs of inflation mean its time to slam the metals.
Honey, I shrunk the APMEx cart total.
I try to keep the cart totals the same regardless. What changes is the size of the step towards my total oz goals for Au and Ag.
The market is in that mode where they will grab and hug any piece of slightly "good" news and juice prices for a day or two - like a drowning man grabbing his rescuer and pulling him under with him.
Agree. I cannot believe the "Big Boys" will do anything but sell the open today.... while they tell Mom and Pop to buy!
Crooks.
I think what everybody has missed is 'how' Fed can roll out QE3. I like W Ross theory that blaming Congress for debt ceiling/deficit/austerity mess is the catalyst. It seems to round the circle.
I dont think Bernanke WANTS equities to get crushed. But he needs an excuse to print so that was a logical one on which to focus. he will never admit QE is not working.
QE1 & 2 did work. The US and EU banks will live and will be buying up everything they can lay their hands on at 20% of current market prices.
QE worked great. It handed the banks risk free profits.
Sorry, I simply cannot believe anything - good or bad - these crapweasal criminals have to say about this economy (or much of anything else, for that matter) anymore.
After 6 down weeks, and almost 8 down days in the last 9, we were due for a pop.
Here it is, enjoy.
Two years after the recession ended we are going to celebrate a "less bad" than expected report. Notwithstanding, that retail sales were lower for the first time in 11 months.
One assumes there is a reason why inflation adjusted retail sales are not reported. Can anyone elaborate on that reason?
"Notwithstanding, that retail sales were lower for the first time in 11 months."
It's a May, not Christmas, I surprised that they
come out that "high" with 4$/gallon gas.
my understanding is that it's a function of timing (i.e., CPI is not typically not available when retail sales are originally released). You can get Real Retail Sales (e.g., St. Louis Fred) on a delayed basis.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=P9
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=Pa
It's good to see the breakdown. What I see are some sectors still plunging...oops, I mean correcting (like overvalued house prices) and other sectors increasing (like ALL foods) or package sizes cut by a 3rd (like frozen berries).
RE runs in 10-12 year cycles so I don't expect house prices to stop "correcting" for at least 8 years. Even Wall Street analysts admit house prices will not stop falling until "the employment situation" picks up in the USA which they say won't happen for 8-9 years. So that ties in with the 10-12 year historic cycling of RE also.
GL!
"It's good to see the breakdown"
What kind of masochism is that? The most breakdown sector
is PM stocks, check them out, if you will, they've been
cut in half. So, basically you are happy, cause your
and mine
Silver going down the tubes as well, even faster than
general Market. Nice to watch that agony daily, right?
Enjoy counting your loses.
Whoever said to buy paper PM's? BTW those PM's 'down the tubes' are still WAY over historic highs...hell I was buying $13 silver 2 years ago and getting laughed at here when I said it would go over $20.
Dollar-cost averaging. Another reason to enjoy being a long.
Gold, silver still in correction mode. So far, usual summer doldrums.
This morning rally looks like it should be faded. Nothing has improved that much. The 8:30 numbers had some 'beats' but with revisions it wasn't particularly strong.
The credit markets are experiencing a typical short squeeze morning. CDX Indices are all tighter and feel strong. Single names are tighter but a little less strong, and cash is more hopeful of a rally than experiencing an actual rally.
So far in credit it is basically a fast money/hedging squeeze. Need bonds to be well bid for a sustainable rally. I don't see that, and expect we will see stocks struggle to hold onto the gains in futures - fast money/hedging equivalent of the CDX indices.
Yup, agree. We are dealing with a corrupt, broken system. I do not buy most stocks and have not for a long while.
Economic indicators rolling over suggests more QE but PPI came at a multi year high 7.3%.
Ben Bernanke is boxed in and should throw in the towel but he won't and we will see continued easing.
Yes, but not until the dollar has rallied considerably from here. If he times it poorly, the disorderly decline in the dollar would consume any easing instantly.
correct.
But we still do need a decline in the dollar but a decline that everyone accepts gracefully without trying to frontrun it.
Central Bank thinkers are correct. Central banks work most effectively when people are not aware of what central banks are doing, don't expect it, and don't frontrun it. If everyone is a bagholder to some degree the pain is spread diffusely.
RIGHT....what we're looking for is a crash, but has to be a 'wink-wink, nod nod' kind of crash that everyones in on.
Nice capitalism, Dog.
I'm noticing that anytime I think it's bad enough to go short, it's time buy and when I think it's getting better, it's time to sell. Pathetic
Reverse the polarity.
Paper silver still in correction mode while the COMEX is getting emptied of registered silver.
I give it to the end of July for the COMEX to be empty except if they force contract holders who want physical silver to accept cash + premium. That will teach those evil speculators.
So declining retail sales is bullish for equities. Well duh!
No more pesky stockers, clerks, or shipping...it's the utopian business frontier.
So far history is repeating itself.
Ben knows if we are lucky we will have moderate stagflation as we go back to the future.
Bell Bottoms?
Guys feathering their hair with a blowdryer and parting it in the middle?
Guys wearing V neck shirts with gold chains?
Leisure suits with pastoral prints on them?
I must burn every picture of my youth so that no evidence of my guilt exists.
I knew that Camaro was gonna be a steal someday...now to work on my handlebar moustache.
I should just not go near my computer on days where CPI/PPI/Same Store Sales/Redbbok/Retail Sales are released because I know I am going to get mad, frustrated and generally P.O.'ed.
And everyone here is treating the data as if there were any accuracy to it at all when we know that the numbers are gamed, underreported. Retail sales would have risen if the inflation numbers represented reality, but they are sales in dollars adjusted for inflation that have a deflator that is absurdly lower than reality, in fact sales not in dollars but in units sold and foot traffic are yet again down.
Oh well, just means QE III will be that much richer.
Interesting...the crocodile algo clearly has the financials by the leg. But let's just ignore it and focus on "not as bad as expected" retails sales...while Best Buy full on reverses [bullish?] and the BlowHorn cues up reporters to hit the malls to see what the sheeple are buying as retail stock RSIs all universally hit infinity.
Brilliant! Sounds like a great investment thesis.
yep and corporations want to squeeze more and more out their serfs(employees) putting out crap like this:
Dear XXX
Regardless of your function in the organization, you understand the high cost of ethics and compliance lapses. Half of observed misconduct never gets reported by employees, and as a result only 20% of information regarding key risks is reaching the appropriate decision point. Communicating policies is important in risk prevention, but does little to drive risk response.
The CEOs from Bayer, GE, RBC, and Progressive -- all companies determined through our benchmarking to have high "Integrity Capital" -- convened last month for a unique event co-sponsored by the Corporate Executive Board (CEB) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to discuss with senior executives the business benefits of developing transparency around key ethics and compliance issues, which include:
QUOTE:
"You would never know the economy is in recovery based on reports from the National Federation of Independent Business (June 2011) whose small business optimist index continues to move south, down three tenths in May to a recessionary level of 90.9. The report points to weak consumer spending as the main factor, one that’s hitting services which is a central sector to small businesses. The report has a sharp political tone saying, without much detail, that Washington policies aren’t encouraging small business to hire. The report’s job creation indications are deteriorating with capital spending and inventory plans weakening. One in four respondents say weak sales are their top problem. Inflation is also cited as a major concern...
"Retail Sales in May are reported as falling .2%. This is also a sharp deceleration from April’s prior supposed .5% gain. Since I know this report vastly overstates real estate sales, I take a negative print here to mean that sales are really decelerating. Remember, this report does not correct for real inflation, and it also suffers from survivor bias... Note that gasoline sales increased solely due to the rising price of gasoline – that does NOT equal products sold, it equals more money printed. Also note the downward revision for April…again." -- Nathan’s Economic Edge
i think i blinked & missed the 10+% petro dip in the slewie PPI, brought to you today, by the letters P P T...
the y-0-y + 7.3% already seems transitory. rejoice!