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May US Car Sales Overview
One of the highlights pointed out by those demonstrating the "resurgence" of the US consumer has been the increasing SAAR of car sales in the US. To be sure, May's SAAR of 11.6 million in light vehicle sales was the highest since September of 2008, when it was at 12.5 million (as seen on the chart below). Yet one item often ignored is that the incentives, especially by the Big 3, as reported by Autodata have reached record highs in May 2010, averaging $3,470 per car for the Detroit 3. Not surprisingly, the one company that is not bankrupt or a ward of the state, Ford is the one providing the lest amount of subsidies. And even as the D-3 capture market share, Asian automakers have not only not followed suit with a comparable ramp up in incentives, but some are in fact doing the prudent thing and cutting back on subsidies. Furthermore, the recent million car+ recalls by Chrysler and GM have not been mentioned even once by CNBC Phil Lebeau, even as the latter spearheaded a governmentally-mandated crusade against Toyota, fully intent on discrediting the Asian carmaker. Lack of free market dynamics aside, here is a snapshot of the most recent car sale trends in the US, coupled with inventory, incentive and granular D-3 sales data.
Monthly SAAR:
GM sales by model:
Ford sales by model:
Fiat/Chrysler sales by model:
Changes in market share MoM and YoY:
Dealer inventory:
And, most importantly, incentives:
Charts from Goldman Sachs
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I thought Ford was bankrupt (mortgaged to the hilt). Hell, even the blue oval logo is mortgaged. If we're going to redefine the terms of Net worth, then you are talking to a multimillionaire.
"Hmm, I'd like to return my Fiat fer one o' dem gold nuggets please..."
Do you think the average American will ever understand Fiat to mean anything other than "Fix It Again Tony?"
Motors Liquidation Company( formerly, GM) recalled 1.5 million vehicles today due to fire hazard, but no one is talking about that. You have to be Toyota to get 30 day media coverage.
Japan should hire someone to set a GM ablaze and go barreling down the highway for some media attention... that'll show 'em!
You mean like ABC putting weights in Jeeps and having robots spin their steering wheels while flooring it to flip them?
Or the Pinto fires that killed 10 people across 2 million cars?
Or 60 Minutes' rigging Audi 5000 pedals with hydraulics to show them pressing themselves?
Or Dateline putting remote incendiaries in GM truck gas tanks to tape them "exploding"?
ABC, 60 Minutes, Dateline Producers:
"We need ratings or I'm FIRED!"
You know what the MSM NEVER metioned in the Toyota hysteria.... If your VIN begins with a J, you were not subject to the recall of the sticking pedal. I know this because I am an owner of a 2007 Camry, and the VIN begins with 4.
Palladium bitches!
I have always had good luck with Edsel's.
GMAC BITCHEZ!!
Ally
Even little kids know when they are being fucked over.
The US government is probably on a car buying frenzy just like last time. I have a 1960 VW transporter, model 212. I can get any part for my bus, any time. It does not need to be smogged. That VW will still be on the road a long time after I am dead.
And the one statistic never covered that I would love to see:
Vehicle sales for fleets..
1. To rental car fleets
2. To the US Government (as GM and Chrsyler are basically selling to themselves then)
3. State/local government fleets
Minus that out and you get a truer picture of the vehicle sales, IMHO. I'll be we'd find that consumers are not as active as some would wish as the Credit report from the Fed yesterday (G19) wasn't exactly reflecting a massive increase in consumer crediti indicative of huge car sales, IMHO.
"2. To the US Government (as GM and Chrsyler are basically selling to themselves then)"
Fed Government fleet purchases manipulating the numbers make total sense. Obummer never met a statistic he would not rig and lie about...
I think I heard June sales are down since many incentives have ran out...
If you're going to buy a new car, buy a Ford, because they deserve it. What? What's "deserve" got to do with it?
Nothing really. That's an emotional response. That's why you should buy Ford, if you you're going to be buying a new car (an emotional act).
Now, pay cash for your car, and and none of this applies. But, if you borrow money to buy a new car, I'll try real hard not to laugh at you if you buy a new Ford, because, really, Ford deserves it. Ford really does.
But I will never again buy a new car, and never should you. Unless, of course, you pay cash for it.
A friend recently bought a new Ford Fusion Hybrid. It is an excellent, innovative car.
New cars are one of the worst investments.
Agree. Should buy with cash when they come off 2 yr lease. Cars period are the worst investment.
No, cars simply aren't an investment.
If you want to call everything you spend money on an investment, then cars would be a mediocre one: below equities and your house in that you're almost certain to lose a good chunk of the value, but certainly above food and entertainment that lose 100% of their values.
Cars are a consumable product, just an expensive one. You buy them and use them up as you drive them, but if you buy one that's already taken the "new car" hit and you take good care of it, you might get a decent amount back when you sell it.
A car for transportation is not an investment.
It is a cost of living.
A 1969 Z 28 engine code DZ is an investment.
Sorry guys for the misuse of the word investment, You can use whatever word you like in place of it.
My Ford E-150 had been running fine for 5 years without any problem. About economy, 6:30PM today at a huge strip mall of Milpitas Calif, once 110% full parking lots around dinner time, now merely 30% occupied. I did a repair for a shop, they paid me their merchandise, no cash or check. Silicon Valley business still frozed in ice age. Something big and really bad will happen soon for sure.
Are you suggesting another tech bubble? Wouldn't surprise me considering all the tech companies I keep reading about that all plan to change the world. I figure at some point, reality is gonna have to set in.
Know what you mean.
There are two problems with real estate and cash flow. You can't hide it and you can't fake it. Sure you can lie about it. But they are running out of fools who are starting to believe their lying eyes.
Cash flow and real estate. Either someone puts cash in your hand or no. Either the vacancy is filled or no. There is no gray here. And the US Congress is now shit out of luck.
Bikes bitches!!
Me and cars on on "the outs" and that's a big statement for me. I have a personal fleet of seven vehicles, truck, van, the rest are cars. Today I decided to see how long it would take me to bike the 8+ miles to work and back (after work that is), and it took barely 30 minutes each way, even with the stupid City road construction detours I had to take.
I have the route down now, it's just getting up the extra half hour earlier in order to bike it out there. Part of the route is rather treacherous at times, semi trucks and all, but it can be done and I'll likely do it this summer, as a replacement for running I can no longer do because of hamstring problems.
Just trying to ween myself off that there oil.
Just my zweipfennigs worth -
It almost doesn't matter what you buy, as long as you buy used.
I have my faithful 1998 Jeep, and the better half just upgraded to a 2007 Mini-Cooper, which we bought cash, using the proceeds of her old car (2001 Camry - sold it for 4K) and some cash from the sale of U-96.
Two good cars that the old MaschinistMaat can work on with NO CAR PAYMENTS.
If and when we augment the motor pool, we'll probably keep the Jeep (useful for hauling stuff) and get something small but nice with an absolute upper limit of 10K - all cash,private parties only, no dealers please, which is the only way to buy a car.
Just some thoughts -
KrvtKpt. laughing swordfish
DKM Trading Division
Bought some Ford 8% bonds today 12-15-2016, on Fidelity. $100.60
I tried to buy a certified pre-owned Lexus in the days leading up to Memorial Day weekend, here in the SF Bay Area. These guys didn't feel the need to give me the time of day. Later I found that one dealership alone sold 84 cars that weekend. The Bay Area seems to be insulated from reality. Or is it the other way around?
EURO chart indicates a move soon :
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
Most people are content to simply buy a brand new car. They like knowing that the vehicle is under warranty. Maybe they enjoy the new car smell. But at the same time, the reality is that they are paying extra money, sometimes much more, in order to receive these and other perks. For those other persons, however, who are willing to consider second hand Japanese used cars and Japanese used vehicles sales, there is the chance to save a substantial amount of money, cash which can then be used for other things.