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MBIA Settlement Approaches, Stock Soars, Triggers Circuit Breaker

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Back in February, when looking at the CDS of MBIA, we observed the dramatic tightening in the corporate opco risk which had seen levels tighten from 55 pts upfront to 37, we speculated that "MBIA recently succeeded in making life for mortgage originators a living
hell, after it successfully challenged, and was allowed to use
statistical sampling in pursuing repurchase demands. While it is unclear
how actively MBIA itself will pursue this strategy, which would be a
viable way to pick up at least several additional points of recovery
courtesy of fat-check settlements, the loophole has already opened the
door for Allstate to sue both Bank of America and JP Morgan,
confirming what everyone has known, namely that the two banks lied and
misrepresented their products with impunity when offloading them to
hapless investors." In other words, by doing to Bank of America first what the NY Attorney General is doing to the firm right now, it was only a matter of time before the Charlotte-based symbol of all that is broken with America's mortgage system (courtesy of the Counterywide Acquisition, rapidly becoming, if not already is, the worst purchase in M&A history) those long MBIA risk were sure to experience a windfall upon any settlement announcement... or even rumor. Which is what just happened earlier today after Bloomberg reported that "Bank of America Corp. (BAC), the biggest U.S. bank, has made a preliminary offer to bond insurer MBIA Inc. (MBI) aimed at settling a legal dispute tied to defective mortgages, according to two people briefed on the discussions."

Naturally the terms of the settlement are unclear, especially since the bank is currently fightning tooth and nail to not lose the ridiculously unfair $8.5 billion RMBS settlement previously discussed with the likes of PIMCO and Goldman. Based on our discussions with several sources the ultimate recovery to CDS, should MBIA purscue comparable pathways with all other mortgage originators, and win, could be worth another 15-20 points upfront to the OpCo. Translated into equity terms: a $30 price target could be well doable.

It goes without saying that MBIA stock surged on the news, and in fact triggered a 10% circuit break.

As for the CDS, per the last run just before the news we had a price of 32 up front. If the settlement happens, this is going to tighten a lot.

More from Bloomberg:

The two companies remain split on how much the Charlotte, North
Carolina-based bank would have to pay to resolve the disagreement, said
the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are private.
Bill Halldin, a spokesman for Bank of America, and Kevin Brown of
Armonk, New York-based MBIA declined to comment.

The lawsuit is among several between Bank of America and MBIA, which
guaranteed Wall Street’s toxic mortgage debt. Bank of America bought
Countrywide Financial Corp. in 2008 and Merrill Lynch & Co. in 2009,
two of the largest participants in the market for subprime home
mortgages.

It is only fitting that in this bizarro market, the only way to generate alpha is to pursue litigation recoveries in what will soon be uncovered to have been the most criminal capital market in the history of America. Alas, this means that for every banker fired, at least three lawyers will take their place.

 

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Thu, 07/14/2011 - 15:54 | 1457297 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Excuse me? BAC made MBIA an offer? Surely, that's bass-ackwards...

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 15:53 | 1457298 janus
janus's picture

i miss agrotera

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 15:55 | 1457300 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

What's Geithner up to now?

These are his bastard children...

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 16:05 | 1457302 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Hey, I have an idea: Lets get the printout of the mortgages in Maiden Lane's portfolio, then we get our robo-signers to print fake titles, we foreclose on them and keep the money! Then we offer MBIA.......

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 15:58 | 1457306 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Short MBI at $10.  No questions asked. 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 16:07 | 1457330 Logans_Run
Logans_Run's picture

"In other words, by doing to Bank of America first what the NY Attorney General is doing to the firm right now, it was only a matter of time before the Charlotte-based symbol of all that is broken with America's mortgage system..."

TD:

I think you could have stopped at "...with America."

 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 16:18 | 1457361 Texas Ginslinger
Texas Ginslinger's picture

With that kind of upward momentum, MBIA could replace BOA in the Dow 30 and give it some juice northward.

 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 16:50 | 1457515 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

MBIA would be severely underpriced at $10 if they get any kind of fair settlement out of BAC

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:02 | 1457743 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

 

What?  No hangings?  Again?

 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 18:58 | 1457888 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

It's coming. And it ain't the debt ceiling and it ain't about flag waving...per se.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 19:07 | 1457906 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

So, you are saying that GOOG will be limited to 10% tomorrow?

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 21:48 | 1458223 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Ha! You hear that sound Jamie? the drums beat for you... they are coming.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 08:05 | 1458843 Victor Berry
Victor Berry's picture

Give MBIA credit for staying solvent long enough to partake in settlements with the big banks.  The same can't be said for AMBAC and other insurers who went under long ago.

Chalk up another failure to Bernanke's crooked forebearance plan with the big banks that was designed to drive all insurers out of business before legal proceedings could occur. 

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