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I think the surprise collapse of the "Chinese miracle" is the Black Swan no one perceives. As the rest of the world's state capitalists start shutting their borders, to whom will the Chinese export to? Brazil? India?
Ukraine collapses first. That's the little tiny black swan that will turn into a cascade.
Watch Germany begin to sweat. Ukraine is a far bigger deal than people realize...
It's about time someone with a substantial voice recognize what has been happening for FORTY YEARS. For holy shit, I mean it's not all that hard to figure out we are in a state-driven economic model. The governmetn is fudging the fucking rules with every new piece of legislation paid for by Exxon, IBM, Goldman Sachs, Saudi Arabia and anyone else who is willing to pay to play. Fucking crooks. Set the ground rules for economic participation and stay the fuck out of the market and let the economy work under a meritocracy. Lobbying fucking whores and charlatans.
I agree about Ukraine, but it's not a black swan you need to be worried about. It's a sick man (and I don't mean Turkey). It's some Laos-type country which, in the impenetrable mass of governmental cum off the books economic relationships, will have a problem and cause a complete freeze in the world economy. It may be an offshore-type economy. But the likelihood increases as the world economy increasingly becomes "priced for perfection." Remember that? Supposedly the recession ended any concern about that, and it would have, if our bank-conspiracies had been allowed to go broke. Instead, the system pledged itself. Now THAT'S pricing for perfection. I sense no margin whatsoever for disaster.
The crisis is not State Capitalism - the crises is Free Market countries realizing that their system has failed and State Capitalism seems to be working - because these philosophies of free enterprise-investment-market works only for those who pull the strings - serves only the fat squids. The coming upheaval is people in countries like America uprising against the greed-is-good cabal and their mouth pieces. Well ,isn't that what zero hedge is doing ( and shorting the heck out of everything in sight in just in case the upheaval does happen :-)?)
It doesn't matter what form of government is out there - it matters on whose side the government is on - a democracy is a failure when the masses do not know or care to guide their elected officials to work for the common good. Right now we are living the failure of that in US.
What is wrong with protectionism - there is no country that has every resource it needs - so wont there always be trade?. America buys from China because American companies have figured out they can make better profit buying from China. American jobs have gone because American companies can make better profit by sending those jobs overseas. All these countries have been lending to America till they get their people rich enough to buy the things they are now learning to make. Then they will stop lending to America. And in the meantime americans would have lost their skills and spirit and then nowhere to borrow while not earning - Our doyens in Washington have conveniently created the last few bubbles so that people wont notice all that is happening.
Will it be such a dirty word if we were to call it "self-sufficiency" instead of "protectionism" ? Shouldn't we be proud to say "be American - buy American "
But then that may mean the fat cats wont make their profits though - and without the quarterly earnings jamboree where will wall street be ? If at the bottom of the ring John Q. is not buying the real underlying physical asset(house, stock , gold whatever) how will all the top tier ethereal instruments trade ?
I rate this comment a thumbs down. Random thoughts all jumbled together in one massive paragraph.
You need a brain transplant.
If there are people pulling strings, it's not a free market. The rest of your incoherent rant is not relevant after that. The one thing you have to remember: you cannot use something that you hold to be true to prove that a consequent of it is untrue. That would mean that you don't actually hold your premise to be true, which, again, invalidates the argument. Have fun with your emotional drivel.
"If there are people pulling strings, it's not a free market."
Is there then such thing as a free market at al? It's not like in free-market capitalism there was no one pulling the strings.
And just what the hell is "the common good" anyway? There is no "Common Good," there is only what is good for individuals, and each of them has a different thing that's 'good for them.' There is nothing that can be said to be good for all of them, other than life itself. And people do not live as a group. They live as individuals, interacting with other individuals. No group has ever thought a thought. No Group has ever shared an idea. The individuals in it must each move their own brain machinery to comprehend an idea, even if it enters their concsiousness via someone else's words or writings. Nothing is automatic. So, I would suggest that you start thinking about what's good for you. Thinking.
Greed isn't good, when you acquire something by taking it from others by force. But when you simply look out for your own interest, without interfering with others rights, then it is good. Call it what you want. There are bad actors, and some become very powerful, and very loud speakers, who claim that their greed is the kind that is good, and then use it as a shiv to the throat of others. They do not speak for capitalism. They are not the example which should damn the rest of us. Get your head on straight. We don't seek to outlaw air travel from foreign countries when someone from China commits a crime here... why not? Because that's ridiculous. Bad actors do not serve to define the category. Gee! This finger hurts from time to time, better lets chop off my fucking arm at the shoulder.
Ok. I'm done. For now.
"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America"
That happens to be the Preamble to the Unites states Constitution.
You wrote:"And just what the hell is "the common good" anyway? There is no "Common Good," there is only what is good for individuals, and each of them has a different thing that's 'good for them.' There is nothing that can be said to be good for all of them, other than life itself. And people do not live as a group. They live as individuals, interacting with other individuals. No group has ever thought a thought. No Group has ever shared an idea. The individuals in it must each move their own brain machinery to comprehend an idea, even if it enters their concsiousness via someone else's words or writings. Nothing is automatic. So, I would suggest that you start thinking about what's good for you."
If the Framers of the Constitution thought as you do, and employed the true democracy that Greece did which destroyed it as everyone looked out for themselves, then we would never have had the US Constitution...the greatest document ever inspired by man.
We are in this mess in America because as Justice Scalia recently stated, 'The Constitution is Dead." It is now "living andd breathing" to those who do not understand it. Are other laws in the United States 'living and breathing?" Can one look out for themselves and rob a store because they, for themselves, have decided that the laws have morphed to meet his needs?
A society is nothing more than a group of people coming together and agreeing to obey the laws it forms to hold said society together. That does not obliterate individual freedoms or desires, nor does it, in America, make all have to asdobt the folly of Hillary Clinton's "It Takes a Village."
Your condemnation, and misunderstanding of the Cinstitution, and the suggestions to the author are what I expect from someone who does not fully understand that we are on the road to perdition, or possibly a European socialist who knows their nations are dying and grasping at the last loaf of bread on a shelf.
I do hope you figure out how wrong you are in your greed belief as we will not be the first nation destroyed by it.
Looking out for yourself does not mean stepping on others. that's the difference between what I'm saying, and what people like Dick Fuld do. Looking out for yourself is ducking when someone throws a rock. It's not jumping in front of the rock so somebody else doesn't get hit.
Looking out for yourself is going out to get a job, instead of complaining that nobody will 'give you one.'
Looking out for yourself is paying your employees enough that they will continue to work for you productively without begrudging your lack of appreciation.
Looking out for yourself and your own interests is picking a safe neighborhood to raise children in.
It's making sure that you do your job, so that your company will be around, and able to pay you, so that you will be able to survive.
Looking out for yourself is NOT taking something because 'nobody will know' or because 'there is nothing they can do about it.' It's not screwing over your customers because they 'have to do business with you anyway.' It's not forcing people to act as you want them to. Because reputation matters, unless of course the government 'regulation' supposedly protects everyone, and therefore everything that is out there appears to be ok to the consumers/retail investors because it 'would be illegal otherwise.' Regulation puts good businessmen, who would have to protect their own reputations for the sake of repeat business on the same playing field of suspicion and horror as those looking to make a quick kill and disappear. Why? Because people figure they shouldn't have to think about the possibility of someone breaching regulation, after all, they figure, the government is protecting them, so there is nothing else to do. If businesses had to deal with public opinion of their products and services directly, with no 'minimum standard' assumption available, then 'looking out for yourself' could never be twisted into what we call WorldCom and Enron, or even maybe Paulson's behavior.
Silliness, you commie pinko wag! Why don't you put away that worn-out Constitution and pick up something as inspiring as it is timely: Atlas Shrugged. If that doesn't straighten your head out, you probably don't even believe in the Bible! Jeez.
why don't you move to cuba (or the white house) with your commie brothers?
Right on ! - go ad-hominem or attack the style (or lack thereof in this case) rather than the substance. That is when you know that a nerve has been struck !
Just as the BRIC nations begin to puff their chests and try to embarrass and lecture the United States, the global depression will wreck their countries even worse than the U.S.
"God favors fools, drunkards, and the United States of America." -Otto von Bismarck
State Capitalism? It is a misleading term. "State Capitalism" is communism/socialism. Cant work. Has never worked. But what have been the implications of communism? Total confiscation of property and rights. And deathcamps. In some parts of the US, the tax rate is effectively 50%. Thats communism. The US can only work the free market capitalism and religiosity. Otherwise it faces collapse. Oh, the collapse is here. Too late. What else would you expect from a nation that elects a Marxist?
False Dilemma. McKinsey isn't talking about Laissez-Faire Capitalism vs. Death Camps.
State Capitalism is the wrong word for it, I agree. It's facism or corporatism. It depends on who controls whom.In the US corporations run the government to their own benefit- this is facism/corporatism - in Russia, and in other European countries, the state runs some state-owned corporations - which is called social-democracy. In China the state, i.e. the party, runs everything. In fact, there is no difference between state and corporations. However, that's facism/corporatism as well and not socialism.
Why? Because you have got a small party elite that runs everything. People have no say in it and do not own any of it. Only then would it be socialism.
I think its very telling the McKinsey would tout China as the way forward, "..will be out of crisis first". That's what they all dream of. They are the elite who runs and owns everything and everyone else is there for the benefit and the profit of the elite. Democracy only hampers progress and growth, so what is it good for anyway?
Looks like China and the US have more and more in common.
Ultimately "state capitalism" (ie socialism) leads to totalitarianism by definition. But this is old news predicted 100 years ago by the austrians. And vindiacted by history. But history has to be read.....thats work. and books is like cryptonite for most Americans.
state capitalism is not socialism because in state capitalism only a small elite owns everything and has access to everything, whereas in socialism everything would be commonly owned.
state capitalism is better called facism or corporatism.
State Capitalism/socialism is working because the Capitlist are trading with the socialist. It worked well for the US when we just traded dollars for there raw materials but then we decided to trade dollars for labor.
If we treated them like we did during the Cold War then they could only trade amongst themselves. If they trade amongst themselves they would be trading inferior products. It is to late to go back to that. We have let them into the game in hopes of turning them into capitalist, but it has not worked yet. They earn dollars and there comunist state buys tresuries and lobbiest. Capitalist earn a profit and buy beach houses, boats, wine, overpriced education and invest in Madoff, Sanford Financial, and ge.
"State Capitalism/socialism is working"..... oh, really? for a moment I thought I had mistakenly logged onto the Comedy Central blog. Wait, let me check again, nope, Zero Hedge it is.
What's so wrong with State Capitalism. All the European countries (ex. England - which is more like the U.S. anyway) have significantly higher life-expectancies and Americans. American cities are ugly as hell and in general much less efficient than European cities because our zoning is so messed up. It's messed up because it values individual preference over the "common good". In fact, there is a "common good" and that is what the majority agrees to be the common good. Too bad Americans are too greedy and stupid to understand there is a better common good.
We can live in, and lose a single family home. Generally, the Europeans cannot. We can own and misuse firearms - not in Europe. We are innocent until proven guilty, not so in many European countries. Your kids are free to succeed or fail: in Europe your social position is fixed by 7th grade in many cases. We have never had a "conflict" that took the lives of 50 million people fought on our soil; the Europeans have had two in the past 100 years. There might be a few more, I dunno.
"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."
Well, absolute freedom would actually be anarchy. So there has to be some balancing. At least you don't have crazy gunmen killing 30 university students at a time. And if you add up all the citizens our country has killed with its bombing runs, just because the war isn't on our soil doesn't mean we aren't complicit. The point is America is full of rabid individualism and people who can't see beyond the stuff they want and can't afford. Take the education example. Europeans tend to weed out the non-performers early and those people are taught a trade. In the US we keep telling them that they are superstars because we don't want to hurt their feelings. Then the government backstops the loans they take to go to a third-rate college where they finally realize that they need to go to a trade school. That's real freedom right there. Great.
been to Europe or just spreading standard prejudice.
We are innocent until proven guilty ... and we thought it was the other way round in US.
Your kids are free to succeed or fail:...you really think your are free in the US?
But seriously, since childhood I remember the following scene.
The world doing something, Airbus, steel, planes, China ....
and the US lecturing everybody on how silly this is, followed by how good their system is,
and it ALWAYS ended with the US loosing this fight.
Don't you ever learn?
I lived there for two years. I'm in the States now. I have developed a keen sense of anti-nationalistic fervor in these past few years. Our unique culture demands an ability to ignore what our government, and my neighbors are doing - that's pretty free. I did not feel compelled to borrow heavily during the "boom" and I was not required to. That is also pretty free.
Russia is not Europe...in WWII, at least 20 million Russian died, and so that reduces the body count in Europe by nearly 50% of your original figure
Russia is both Europe and Asia. The war was predominantly fought in the European part of Russia.
Huge difference between Western Europe (which is the de facto standard when anyone thinks of or mentions the word "Europe") and Eastern Europe/Russia.
Bob Dobbs -
you are misinformed, or rather out of date about your European assumptions -
We can live in, and lose a single family home. Generally, the Europeans cannot - false.
We can own and misuse firearms - not in Europe - False.
We are innocent until proven guilty, not so in many European countries - true.
Your kids are free to succeed or fail - False: in Europe your social position is fixed by 7th grade in a very few left over cases, in the same way Yalies and GS alums get to positions most others do not i the US.
We have never had a "conflict" that took the lives of 50 million people fought on our soil; the Europeans have had two in the past 100 years. True, but your point in this is?
Lastly - the europeans - of course them, the French think (tax, value, live as long as, et al) like the Germans, like the Irish and the Bulgarians and Danes and the Latvians and Estonians and the Hollanders and the Norwegians and the White Russians and the Romanians and the Italians and the Spaniards???
What was the percentage of Europeans living in a single family dwelling again?
How many American kids succeed against all odds? There are very few GS and Yale's in proportion to our population.
You misunderstood my post. I don't care about your social system - that's your business. We have our own system, flawed as it is, and exist out of the European paradigm. There's nothing wrong with it either. But it's ours. I do not care to be a European. I am an American.
Then be proud of it, but don't always try to use examples, of which you are so confident of that they don't work,
trying to make other people look bad.
As this is happening all over the world now, never do anything that looks sort of American.
Do your stuff, but do it without mentioning how stupid other people or systems are without knowing anything about it.
To which I can merely say "stay in the place you are most comfortable." Socialism is anathema to many Americans, and that's what direction the managed economies seem to head.
Good reading. "State capitalism" is nothing more or less than fascism, or corporatism, as Il Duce called his state.
There have been a lot of commnents about who is next in the line of defaults. But the article is conjuring a multi-year scenario, and necessary considerations even after economies recover.
Considering the risks of rising protectionism and poliical breach of the sanctity of contract, it seems that everyone should be in "wealth preservation mode" right now.
Thankfully, the Swiss government gets the dangers of fascism, and is acting appropriately.
I agree. A terrific read, and a great comment section that followed.
Thanks for posting the link. Very intriguing.
When I was in college and grad school in the 80s and 90s all the political scientists could talk about was the withering of the state and the growing dominance of multinational corporations.
Apparently at the end of this denationalizing road is--renationalization, crony capitalism and (if you're really lucky) full-blown fascism. Who knew?
It'll end where these things always end, internal strife and/or revolution; internationally, war, intrigue, and more war.
Nasty brutish and short.
the practical reality is that there areessentially 2 choices: 1. capitalism 2. everything else is government controlled economy. When then US government was 1% of the economy, the US grew at an enormous rate and living standards grew more than any other period. The US govt now controls 50-70% of the economy. As a student of history, this cant work. This guarantees declining wages and living standards. America has chosen big government. Well then they must accept the consequences.
William Strauss and Niel Howe wrote a book some years ago called Generations, that looks at the long term behavior of each cohort (over roughly 18-20 years) in relationship to previous and following cohorts, and they defined as part of that the notion that there is an approximately eighty year cycle that these generations cycle through.
While the specific turnings (20 year subcycle) vary depending upon commentator, most look something like the following:
Awakening - Takes place after a crisis, as the next generation starts picking up the pieces and establishing a new society/economy.
Growth - A period of innovation, typically marked by the rise of a middle class and increased standards of living. Previous middle class becomes the upper class.
Consolidation - Power becomes consolidated in upper class oligarchy, corruption increases, social inequality rises, middle class standards decline, eventually results in a full oligarchy.
Collapse - Imbalances become unsustainable, system collapses, eventually oligarchy is overthrown by middle class leaving society is in disarray.
Then things cycle back to the Awakening.
We are just now entering into the Collapse phase now in the cycle. The upper class this cycle are the financials (including health insurance and oddly big pharma), military/industrial, big media and oil companies, all of which came to power in the 1930s and 1940s. The middle class for the most part are in tech companies, services, biotech and solar economy companies. Most of the companies now in trouble are part of the older "upper class". They are in fact dying, but their death throes are violent enough to cause significant devastation throughout the economy.
Sorry for the repost - forgot to log in.
William Strauss and Niel Howe wrote a book some years ago called Generations, that looks at the long term behavior of each cohort (over roughly 18-20 years) in relationship to previous and following cohorts, and they defined as part of that the notion that there is an approximately eighty year cycle that these generations cycle through. While the specific turnings (20 year subcycle) vary depending upon commentator, most look something like the following:
We are just now entering into the Collapse phase now in the cycle. The upper class this cycle are the financials (including health insurance and oddly big pharma), military/industrial, big media and oil companies, all of which came to power in the 1930s and 1940s. The middle class for the most part are in tech companies, services, biotech and solar economy1 companies. Most of the companies now in trouble are part of the older "upper class". They are in fact dying, but their death throes are violent enough to cause significant devastation throughout the economy.
Given the imbalances involved, this particular collapse is likely to be huge and devastating. My suspicion is that once we cycle through to the Awakening phase (in about 15-18 years), the United States will likely not be a single geopolitical entity anymore, but anywhere from three to perhaps as many as ten.
1 The solar economy is the transition to an electrical rather than hydrocarbon based transportation grid, with energy produced by a spectrum of alternatives. It may (and probably will) include oil and coal, but dependency upon external oil sources will be reduced significantly, if not eliminated outright.
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