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Meredith Whitney: "No Doubt We Have Entered A Double-Dip For Housing"
Highlights from an interview by Meredith Whitney currently on CNBC (full interview to be posted later):
- A double dip in housing is a certainty
- State economies are plunging, and are $200 billion underwater, will lead to 2 million in state-level layoffs leading to a low-end impact; raising taxes at state level will impact the top-end
- Retail sales have been stronger only due to consumers not paying mortgages, retail sales have already topped as is
- Q2 bank results will finally catch up with accelerated mortgage foreclosures; charge-offs and delinquencies in credit cards are better due to mortgage non-payment cash flow going to other obligations, and this will soon top as well
- Structural employment issues in the US won't get better any time soon
Full interview:
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You know she believes a broader economic "double dip" is coming too - I mean, that was the whole picture she was painting - but she didn't want to call it on camera or assign a specific probability when prodded.
update: Whitney: De-levering is a good thing in the long term but the process will be painful.
And really isn't that the main thesis of Zero Hedge?
yep, yep....but it is 'refreshing' to hear it on CNBC for a change.
she's sexy. I wanna double dip in her. Joe Kernan does Yoga, solely for the purpose of being flexible enough to suck his own dick.
No shit Meredith
The thing that really boggles my mind, is seriously look at the economy. Yeah you have small pockets of hiring but that doesn't mean full growth. You need all areas to start to slowly hiring no just one. With so many people losing their jobs, places just completely closing.. why would anyone in there right mind buy a house. Thats fine if u have the money and everything, but there is no way this economy can support the price of houses at this current level. Just my 2 cents, here is a quick place to check. Never can have too much information, Keep up the goodwork ZH
No comment is sometimes the best comment.
Thank you Meredith for your contributions. It's always a pleasure to follow your rock solid work.
"No shit Meredith."
Yes, the obvious is being stated. But the human psyche requires that the "truth" be continuously be rammed home - also a function of Zero Hedge.
When you pull all housing sales from the next N years forward with incentives the result is obvious. When you pull all window replacement sales ahead from the next N years with incentives the result is obvious. When you pull car sales from the next N years with incentives the result is obvious.
And the record turns and turns and turns....
And it is somehow a surprise after co-caine being the only thing ingested by the patient over the last century that the patient has issues.
Shrug.
When you want to maintain a blood sugar level that is low and constant, you eat a certain way. Its green, raw, and simple. When you want to experience spikes in life and all that such will bring then you start playing with sugars.
Just walk past the Uncle Sugar isle.
@LeBalance
Nice sugar high analogy. I would only extend it by saying that the central bankers are the sugar growers.
It's all just entertainment. Some folks provide given products for your consuming pleasure. It is the consumer who chooses. And it is the educators (ZH, commentors, etc) who point out that choices exist and other ways are viable.
I was walking the other day and passed by two girls. They were having the "You can't get your protein from just beans!" :: "Discussion" I just continued to walk only interjecting a medium volume "Spinach!" lol!
To keep with the analogy, the patient can stay high longer than the market can stay irrational and that IS saying a lot.
The banks residential trump card is much like they are doing with CMBS. Extend and pretend. Stop foreclosing and work out a manageable longer term loan with lower monthly payments. 50 year paper is starting to float around.
The real trick is keeping the sheeple fully involved in The American Dream. Ahhh, CNBC. Sweet dreams.
I am shocked. Sittin here watching CNBS, DJ futures up about 3.66 million, man, I'm waithing for the FRNs to start flowin' in. What a bummer.
ESU continues to get high on the 30 and 60 day chart, while its other half EUR/JPY is sober and getting pissed. The ESU is partying like ninety nine. Trade for the week is short the ES today and wait until the gap closes.
Safer would be to buy the EUR/JPY at same time... lower return that one.
With self awareness comes a natural desire to use hallucinogens. This HFT on LSD is like any junkie, prone to crashes and fits. We should ask Charlie Sheen to give guest commentary on this.
Now go tell your other elitist friends this you snooty little...........
not to miss the obvious...
how did Meredith get on the air?
Having been right on the housing and credit bubble when almost everyone else was wrong has a certain cache right now. Being good looking, female and blond tends to be a plus on TV too.
Hope that helps.
One of her assets, the one on her right, seemed to be calling attention to itself this morning as she made her way to the newsdesk before her segment. I laughed out loud while brewing over my breakfast and my wife asked what was so funny. I just didn't have the heart to tell her this morning.
I used to watch the weather channel in the morning, but then they started putting "news" segments right before my local on the eights. Now I turn on CNBC for comic relief and some soft core t-n-a.
I noticed this, too, as well as the concomitant pressure on Erin "B-Cups" Burnett to get breast implants.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems her name first came to my attention as the author of a series of print articles about credit card reform, back when that prospect was first being talked about.
Her repeated theme was that there should be no limits on credit card interest rates, because that would force banks reign in their worst risk groups if they couldn't protect themselves by charging sufficiently high rates to cover the inevitiably high default rates in these groups.
This was usually presented as protecting consumers from loss of credit. It struck me as a question of providing assisted financial suicide.
She's a one-hit wonder, has been all wrong on the banks for about 6 months now..
just because the banks and the regulators have been relatively successful in hiding their insolvency from the mainstream media this past six months doesn't mean Meredith has been wrong.
far from it. she's a little too easy on them i think.
That is because the banks are able to extend and pretend...go listen to your Dick Bove then
She hasn't really been wrong on the banks at all for a LONG time. What she has no power over is the FED and the scam Benny is running. The banks are no better than they were 2 yrs ago. If FASB was to put mark to market back in place today, every single TBTF bank would be insolvent just like they were. They are inherently insolvent today, but they are allowed to mark their assets to whatever they want with no regulation, and give the public the false perception they are okay. Every single bank stock is completely over-valued by a ton.
One thing I do disagree with her on, but she may have information that we don't, is that of people not paying mortgages are paying credit cards. To me, one would have to be an idiot to use non-payment of a secured asset to pay an un-secured debt.
If the mortgage was underwater, and we know millions are, my credit report would be shot already, so why would I pay off CC debt? I would be buying assets with that money. Or, if I am paying off CC debt, then I just charge the card back up to the limit buying hard physical assets. The problem with Americans is they are too stupid. They buy Ipad's and other crap, which are worthless, and then they are back in the poorhouse twice over now, with no wealth accumulated from the opportunity.
My advice, that has never waivered, is to stop paying on all debts. EVERYONE! Use the money you keep to buy physical assets that will generate wealth for you. The system is set up for the crooks to take advantage of it like this, so why don't we? People cry "morals" and "ethics" when you mention not paying, but there are no morals and ethics when these crooks are raping you everyday are there? You have to fight fire with fire. Not paying is the one sure fire way to put these crooked bankers out of business and get them out of your pocket. Americans just need to wake up and realize it. Otherwise, keep bending over for the anal reaming again and again.
You shouldn't look at CC as unsecured debt. For most people in America a credit card is more than just debt it is a way of life, it is a right to purchase online, to rent a car, to buy a plane ticket, etc. Without a credit card, you are nobody, but an outcast of society. Just look at Visa and Mastercard commercials, they are selling status not debt.
Well, you just absolutely confirmed my statement, of how stupid the American taxpayer/consumer really is. The government knows this, which is exactly why they do what they want to do, when they want to do it, because they understand how ignorant people really are today compared to past generations.
Are you aware that many employers, now, check credit record of prospective employees?
While your advice might have a small benefit for someone who is FUBAR with their credit card debt, for most, it's a classic example of cutting off your nose to spite your face.
I have to bring you into the know on the credit checks for employment line. I am on the board of directors on a background screening company. State and Federal laws prohibit credit history from being used as a determining factor for employment purposes unless the job is related to one's credit and access to funds comes into play. So CFO, accounting positions, things of that natures use credit as a determination. Sales reps, manufacturing, secretaries, etc, credit would not be a determining factor. We have over 1,000 clients across the domestic US and they follow these rules regularly.
As far as paying off debt is concerned, that is everyone's own choice. I used my knowledge of JP Morgan's fraud to terminate a sizeable portion of my debt and all I had to do was take hundreds of phone calls a month and send a few certified letters here and there. While I could pay the debt off entirely, I wanted to explore the fraud of the Primary Dealers and its validity first hand. I know the unsecured debt was extended to me with no financial consideration and no disclosure that my signature is what created the debt and not their deposits, but at the end of the day I want the debt gone and I want to scrape some of my TARP, TALF, ZIRP, REPO, etc scams back into my pocket.
Fuck the credit score. I forgot who said this - if you are trying to quit crack will you be pissed if the crack dealer tells you your crack score will go down if you stop using it? Once you are out of unsecured debt hell, which is simple to do if you take time to get the knowledge, you can use pre-paid cards for more things than you realize.
Thanks for your response Dr. and it goes on again to prove my point, how uneducated and ignorant the American public is regarding issues like these. They are scared into paying what they don't have to pay. Did the banks pay for their losses? NOPE.
I mean really, we have some very intelligent folks here on ZH, who understand the system as a whole, way better than I do, but I am smart enough to realize, they can't make you pay. They use the only thing they have at their aresnal, and what they have used for centuries, and that is FEAR. They make you think they can put you in jail, when they can't do anything but write it off. Yes, the consumer gets hit from further borrowing privelages for a while, but not forever. It's the same thing as what the businesses do time and time again from Airlines to bankers, and so on, when they can't pay they don't, and they call it a "business decision". So call your non-payment a "business decision" as well.
And yes, prepaid visa/mastercard are excellent!!!!!!!
I do not disagree with anything you have said.
One last word of warning, depending on the state in which you live, is the judgment enforcement laws.
You can get most credit card companies to back off if you show them you are serious in fighting them. However, some will sue you and some may get a money judgment against you.
Here in NY, that judgement is enforceable in 3 main ways (others, but not common)
(1) 10% garnishment of your GROSS wages (if you don't work or are self employed, no problem)
(2) Restrain bank account (if you don't keep $$ in the bank, no problem)
(3) Lien on ANY real property you own in that county (if you don't own or are upside down, no problem. If you're on mom's house, PROBLEM!)
Of course it is up to each person to educate himself or herself as to the possible collections in their own state before they stop paying all their debts to load up on gold/silver/ammo/non-genetic engineered seeds.
In the case of NY as you describe, and other states with similar hooks, you wait until the last minute before they try to garnish your wages, then you do one of two things, or both.
1. File Chpt 7
2. Quit your job and move to a state that doesn't allow that crap, like NC, AZ, and a few others.
Almost Solvent
You're supposed to declare bankruptcy, which halts all collection activity, asstard.
Brett
That employment practice should be illegal soon. In fact, if there were any business ethics remaining, it would be illegal now. But now that it has rendered half the workforce "unemployable," that practice will have to be eliminated, otherwise, wages would tend to rise from the shortage of viable labor. And that will never be allowed.
Sawyer
In the interest of the quality of ZH discourse, please recognize that you are an idiot, and do not post your commentary again.
She called a short on GS twice that I know of, and thats when everybody was bullish on GS.
Point being that she know her stuff. And she knows banking better than anyone that I know of.
What she and others lack is the knowledge about the extent that the regulators and the smoke and mirror stage hands will go to in order to keep the illusion alive.
But now, without a doubt, she has a grasp on this. They have shown their hand.
"she's been a one hit wonder"....
what rock did you crawl out from under?
She started tooting round about this tine in the summer of 2008
A harbinger perhaps?
Maybe like Wayne Gretzky...skate to where you know the puck will go.
What, the recovery's not here ?!??
Video
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1526836676&play=1
I used my knowledge of JP Morgan's fraud to terminate a sizeable portion of my debt and all I had to do was take hundreds of phone calls a month and send a few certified letters here and there.
______
And if you have a job, many of these calls will come to your place of work. If there's a law against this, the cc companies sure aren't following it. There's a woman at my company who's been getting hounded. It sure hasn't done her rep any good.
There are laws in place to prevent creditors from calling your workplace. Once they are told not to call your workplace, and they keep doing it, they can contact the Attorney General in their persepective state and put a stop to it. In some cases, they can even file for harrassment damages and have the entire debt discharged. Creditors will push the buttons, but many know where to stop, at least the smart ones. Another option, and prefereably your first, is to contact them in writing, and tell them you will only communicate with them through writing. It is called a "Do Not Call Letter" and you send it certified mail with a return receipt so they can never claim they didn't get it. Once you have that in place and they continue, then the AG will be more ready to help you.
At work? Have them look up the forms the debtor should submit to their creditors demanding that all attempts to claim must be made in writing.
After you send these letters you can sue them for each call received after certifying delivery of the letter to the tune of $1500 per violation plus legal fees to enforce your rights.
This woman knows her shit. I can't believe cnbc is dumb enough to interview her on live tv. She doesn't exactly fit in with their cheerleading mentality.
Timing is everything.
I've noticed the financial media has been very bearish during this rally. If you remember, Cramer called it a "fake rally."
This morning Pisani was talking about traders wanting to fade the rally.
This tells me insiders don't want the public on board until a later date.
I agree. After I posed that comment it kinda hit me. They are being forced to acknowledge the problem so that when shit finally hits the fan they won't look like complete fools.
She's just repeating what Jim Rickards already said on CNBC. He said it again last week on King World News.
The G20 members are aware that American mortgage holders aren't going to pay an underwater mortgage while the central bank is in 365247 print mode.
Yes but she is so much hotter than Rickards. And I am suprised that they were willing to have her D's upstage the C and B crowd.
Anyone here think Visa maybe be a good short soon?
Wonder what this means for refi rates.. do I lock or float hmmm
How about selling the house and renting?
Is Miss Whitney's truth telling getting in the way of large breasted anchors blowing bubbles on Live TV??? CNBC, if you ruin your reputation which you have worked so hard to earn, damn you to hell. At least get the bald mad man to threaten to swallow her head or something. We need entertainment.
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CNBC is just CTA. After Bam Bam O get his 50 Billion jobs bill passed things are going to rock and roll right along with inflation. Just a word of warning- the collapse comes after 2011 or maybe 9/2011.
2 years ago, she says this and bank stocks go down 5% in an hour, now, not so much.
Intelligent, knowledgeable, confident woman. Sizzling Hot!