Merrill's Harley Bassman On Why This Is The "BIG ONE" And Its Implications

Tyler Durden's picture

Must read observations from Merrill's Harley Bassman, formerly head of the RateLab:

Maybe I am showing my age, but I can assure you that as World Political events go, what is happening in the Middle East is actually the BIG ONE.

Respectfully ignoring the moral aspects of what is occurring and only focusing upon the cold numbers of dollars and the economy, we have tossed some serious uncertainty into the mix.

Without stepping over the line and opining as to all the various outcomes that do not bode well, let's just say that the 20bps rally in the T10yr since the "pot started to boil" is microscopic relative to the scope of events.

The reason there is no "Flight to Quality" bid for USTreasuries is that USTs are no longer the "Quality" asset.  Since the FED has turned on the printing presses, the "value" of the dollar has steadily declined. This is why the "Flight to Quality" is happening in Gold, Oil, Copper, Cotton, etc

Attention all you non-inflationists (and you know who you are), what more evidence do you need that the Govt's Plan "A" (inflation) is well underway?

There is little we could add to this.

h/t David

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sheeple's picture

what's plan B?

Michael's picture

Why are humans incapable of admitting defeat? There is no way to fix what is wrong with the economy.

You must rebuild it from the ground up.

I just wish we did Ron Paul's plan 2 years ago. It wouldn't have been half as bad.

Well, at least we had 2 extra years to stock up on plenty of guns and ammo.

That scene from War Games

tickhound's picture

In the case of our international corporations and supporting governments, its not so much about ever admitting defeat... The failures are planned, and "recovery" is implemented.

Sokhmate's picture

a.k.a. "The mission has been a successful failure", or, "the right mistakes have been made"

RemiG2010's picture

Plan B is in a making in Korean Peninsula! You are focusing on wrong event. In my humble opinion, the ‘architects’ of the ‘event’ are playing with fire! If things go wrong, no more trading at least for six to twelve months! But that would be the last thing on your minds!

Atomizer's picture

It’s an ancient Chinese secret grasshopper.


TeamAmerica's picture

USS Kearsarge passed thru the Suez and is now steaming toward Libya.   USS Enterprise remains in the Red Sea.

jus_lite_reading's picture

Plan B in Fed speak:

;Global Nuclear War.




HoofHearted's picture

Plan B? We don't need no stinkin' plan B. I am the BERNANK!!!

string's picture

To live and die in Libya.

Sudden Debt's picture

Nothing is as powerful as an idea whose time has come (Victor Hugo).


One of my favorite quotes :)

MrSteve's picture

More accurately speaking:

more powerful than the tread of marching armies is an idea whose time has come's picture

what's plan B?


Plan B One-Step™: Home

About a progestin-only emergency contraceptive available in the U.S. ("If Plan A fails, go to Plan B...")
Eagle1's picture

As a former Merrill Lynch-er from years ago, Mr. Bassman better watch his six with stuff like this. Merrill has a long history of getting rid of talented people who dare to not be "bullshit, oops I meant bullish on Amerika."

dizzyfingers's picture

Maybe he's too disgusted to care?

alien-IQ's picture

I think it's time some good people mustered up a healthy dose of disgust because this is getting alarmingly ugly.

Art Vandelay's picture

Exhibit A: David Rosenberg

flacon's picture

Greetings from another former ML employee. I used to work for Bob Doll at MLIM. I left after the buyout by BlackRock. I got to work at BlackRock for a few weeks - and hated their workplace in NYC. All the developers sardined on a looooooong bench with no dividing walls. Like a slave galley - all the young 20-somethings working their asses off and weekends. 

AccreditedEYE's picture

Attention all you non-inflationists (and you know who you are), what more evidence do you need that the Govt's Plan "A" (inflation) is well underway?

If they inflate, yields explode and the U.S. treasury debt roll dies. It isn't as simple as inflating away the liabilities. At some point, they have to put the brakes on risk which will release pressure and allow yields to move down. (for how long that break lasts is another matter)

** agree 100% commodities are being used as store of value play**

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

A long slow drawn out death is never pretty to witness.....particularly when it's your own.

jus_lite_reading's picture

AMEN! Let's get the party started NOW!

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Cog Dis,

I completely agree.  Each day (that I remember...) I am trying to follow your advice to pay attention and wake up.  It's hard, as you have said.  I'm making very little progress.  I am preparing, but...

I commented on your opus yesterday, but I never congratulated you for such a great piece.  I sent the link to over 30 people, so consider my congratulations as DONE!

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I appreciate the high praise and the link sent to others. The essay appears to have gone somewhat viral as it has been picked up by several other blogs and even a few article consolidators. It seems I touched upon a subject many people were thinking about, but very few were talking about.

Another successful cognitive dissonance pinged. :>)

Azannoth's picture

No problem the government will indoctrinate the sheeple to the contrary through artificial 'Facebook Friends'

(this site has recently been hacked and shows up as malware but it's not)

jus_lite_reading's picture

Which you can now get on your gov't approved Apple iPad 2.

LawsofPhysics's picture

don't forget the blog trolls like harry!

downrodeo's picture

his conspicuous absence over the past few days is really starting to hurt his perma-bull reputation


harry, you out there? We're starting to get depressed...

Tense INDIAN's picture

dont see much of an upmove here in the S & P:::

unionbroker's picture

an acre of land or an i pad hmmm whatever will i choose

nedwardkelly's picture

An acre of land for the price of an ipad? Where are you buying land, the desert?

Land that's actually useable for much of anything runs at least $1k an acre around here.

dow2000's picture

And where are you? You should move to Long Island where you can get a 1/4 acre for about 200k plus 9k per year in property taxes.  The land where cops make about 150k per year and teachers make about 120k.

unionbroker's picture

 cheap 1! come to Vancouver and buy 1/4 acre for 1.5 CDN

Treeplanter's picture

Most of BC is government land.  It's insane.

Sunshine n Lollipops's picture

Awesome! So it belongs to the Canadian people, right? Oh wait . . .

Bob's picture

Sounds like an expensive place all the way around.  Are the cops and teachers doing that?'s picture

The system which socializes educational, security and other services in order to allow the politicians and bankers to syphon wealth out of the pockets of productive individuals (all for our own benefit and the good of the children) is responsible for that.

In other words, things cost more when people believe that services they receive will be paid for by someone else. But if you read the fine print you'll discover that the someone else is you.

ColonelCooper's picture

I don't know why anyone would live there, but I'm glad they're there and not here.

Tense INDIAN's picture

dont see much of an upmove here in the S&P:::

Targets around the 1250 area......

cougar_w's picture

the 20bps rally in the T10yr ... is microscopic relative to the scope of events.

And there you have it. His personal opinion doesn't even matter; the rest of the world has voted with it's risk.

Commander Cody's picture

And the salute to technology that was the Death Star is insignificant relative to the power of the Force!

I only kill chickens and wheat's picture

We will need the force if we are to survive.

LostWages's picture

Thought that maybe this was a McBags headline....

History shows that the best way to deflect anger away from govt is to start a war and redirect that anger towards a common enemy.  This one could be tricky, but I'm sure the govt thinktanks will come up with something juicy in an attempt to rally the sheeple to send their sons off to die for something worthy.