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MF Global's Ten Predicitions For 2010
The latest in the 2010 forecast series comes courtesy of MF Global. Unlike the trite cheerfest from the sellside bankers (who can blame them, their jobs depend on optimism) which we have been largely ignoring, this piece is certainly worth five minutes of your reading time.
h/t Sean McGillivray
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Speaking of the past decade and looking into 2010, here's a quick view from a "short-term bear" in a Squawk on the Street interview yesterday morning with John Reutemann, founder and CIO of Financial Strategies, on his 2010 market strategy… For those interested, here's an abbreviated transcript:
How’s 2010 look to you?
I’m pretty much a short-term bear… There’s a lot of truth out there that isn’t being told:
The real unemployment rate is U6 17.2%.
There’s 3.5 million unsold homes.
According to the NBAA, there’s another 4.5 million of unsold homes that are going to be following that.
Unemployed people aren’t shopping at Home Depot for granite and wallpaper.
So are we expecting a correction?
IMPO, we are absolutely at the top of another stock market bubble. I would not be at all surprised to see a pullback to 850 to 900 on the S&P in the next 3 to 5 months.
Given zero percent interest rates, how can stocks fall back?
Very simple. This has not been a rally that’s been led by the consumer. If you look at the rally off the bottom from March 9th, it’s very artificial. If Citibank can borrow money at 0 and Ford can borrow money at 0, I don’t see the consumer driving that. Everybody’s talking about Ford being the darling of the recovery. Ford last week announced plans to give buyouts to another 40,000 people. And the rally that you’ve seen since March has not been led by the consumer, and it’s not been led by the small businessman.
I’ll grant you that most recoveries in this country are driven or led by the consumer, however, not all of them. Sometimes you have slow downs that are led because of capital spending slowdown and, therefore, you can have recoveries that are primarily capital spending recoveries and there’s nothing wrong with that.
There’s absolutely nothing wrong with that. I agree totally. There’s only one problem. Roughly 80% of employment is small business as defined by employees of fewer than 50 and your small business credit markets are frozen. Small businessmen are afraid to hire new employees and small businessmen are petrified of what the new health care bill is going to do to their budgets and their bottom line. So we have an economy that’s not being led by the consumer and an economy that’s not being led by the small businessman.
So for those who are in the bear camp, for those that basically adhere to your view, what would you be doing to protect your money?
I went 100% cash back on October 23 when the S&P was at about 1093. So I’m sure I’ve left a couple of points on the table. But I would rather protect my client’s principal than risk it and the message of the last 10 years is do not risk principal. The buy and hold methodology has not served the public. The 10-year return on the S&P 500 is four trading days away from closing at negative 10 for the decade. And people need to be cautious and if you’ve participated in the rally for the last nine months you need to be employing some risk management tools; you need to be looking at stop losses and you need to be asking yourself how much of the rally are you willing to give back considering the fact that you’re probably already negative 10 for the last 10 years. And that’s nothing to brag about…
So what do you think is appreciable over the next 10 years? Do you think it will be commodities?
Commodities by the way have been the number one performing major asset class for the last 10 years, and contrary to that, the U.S. stock market has been the worst. For the last 10 years we’ve had a commodities index that’s up 111% and we have the U.S. stock market at negative 10. The public needs to hear this.
The video is posted at : http://economicedge.blogspot.com/
This guy is EXACTLY wrong on each point. Q1 earnings will be excellent and beat expecations. Valuations are <15x 2010 EPS. Dividends will be $30/shr on SPX. Why would stocks fall to 900?
He says at the end, "commodities have been the number one performing major asset class" -- SO WHAT? Isnt that exactly the time to SELL? US Stocks were #1 into 1999, then you sell.
Stocks bitches!! The next 10-yrs will be recovery, wars will end, focus will shift away from commodities/building.
Nobody gives a shit about stocks except
stock traders and everyone knows the
global economy actually sucks for the long
run. You might have somebody to dump
your stocks on in the first quarter....
you might not...the cognoscenti know
we've got a 2% GDP world at best.
The volume is horrendous, and you've
got a historical p/e 30-40% above fair
value. Who isn't all in at this point
and hoping for more manipulative trading.
That's all you've got here.
Great post JR.
MFGR will be publishing their 2010 equity, currency, interest rate outlook later today. I will forward those on.
China will run its suicidal stimulus and turbo lending into 2010 for two reasons: the CP wants to survive, and China is within earshot of topping archrival Japan as the World's Second Largest Economy. Ego considerations and the bump to nationalistic fervor is what will dictate monetary policy.
And Japan, feeling sheepish and lacking self-confidence, will try to shake up Asia. Beware competing nationalism.
"The U.S.'s economic outlook will pick up gradually"
Based on what? The trends they cite toward "normalized" monetary policy (i.e. tightening), massive deficits, rising health care expenditures, higher taxes, high structural unemployment and the continued deleveraging of consumers in the developed economies?
If there was something worth reading in that report I must have missed it.
You can't sell an almost infinite amount of new debt each year for the next several years PLUS refinance existing debt that matures AND do it at low rates without macro shenanigans on a world level.
People use the prior recessions as a guidebook for this one. They couldn't be more incorrect. This recession is nothing like any of the others.
A weird mix of deflationary inflation is required. So is an accommodative Fed who plans to monetize a lot of UST debt, but only when rates are low and the market is low.
This calls for a systematic series of asset bubbles and bursts for the next several years on a regular basis. Likely on a coordinated world basis.
Of course, it's entirely possible the XMAS shopping season was a Christmas miracle and the world economy was saved last week.
I totally agree with two of your thoughts.
One....this recession has been gravely misread at the policymaking level , in particular. V-shaped recovery assumptions have guided government stimulus policies that are gravely flawed. Long term continuing relapses will be grim as a result.
Two....ongoing debt refinancing at low rates, even with macro shenanigans, is a 500-1 longshot.
Pretty good piece. Gotta call out a couple of classic lines though:
- "Policy stimulus was excessive and exceeded the amount necessary" Well yeah, when the amount necessary was ZERO, not hard to exceed that!
- "The tax burden in the U.S. and Europe will likely increase" Not really going out on a limb with that prediction.
4) Jobless Recovery
How can you have a jobless recovery if the focus is on the people? You can't, that's how.
Your focus must be on corporations. Their "life" must come first and foremost. This is why the words "jobless recovery" can not only be bandied about but passively accepted by you and I as normal, even desirable, as the first step to a real recovery. But that "real" recovery never comes.
Who are we working for? Look how far we all have slipped down into the rabbit hole. This is what I mean when I say we are all responsible for this mess. When we accept that dead soulless corporations, not the living and breathing people who work in/for them, are the end-all be-all, we have ceased to live the authentic life.
Why don't we fight the machine? Because we are the machine.
+++ ...as always...:-)
"we have ceased to live the authentic life"
Indeed, for some time now. It is amazing to see the changes in just a generation. Self inflicted extinction is un natural.
Jobless recovery -- definition of an oxymoron.
Your re-definition of a "jobless recovery" as a "corporate recovery" was a moment of enlightenment for me. It added another piece to the puzzle of understanding.
I don't know that we are the machine, I think it is the government that has become the machine, being run by the banks, and other corporations.
The Supreme Court decided that corporations are people in the eyes of the government and its laws. Since corporations have the possibility of being immortal, it makes you wonder how flesh-and-blood people can compete. The simple power of compounding over many lifetimes means that corporations must eventually own everything.
So corporations have usurped the rights of the people. Government of the corpspeople, by the corpspeople, and for the corpspeople.
I don't think the flesh-and-blood people are the machine, I think they are the fuel that is consumed by the machine.
I understand your point. But as long as the flesh-and-blood people support the machine, regardless of if that support comes from apathy, laziness, fear, self interest or disinterest, the flesh-and-blood people are indistinguishable from the machine. If we as a people wish to think we are powerless to stop the machine, we are thinking this way simply to make ourselves feel better about our decision.
Who is the corporation or government? The answer is my brother, my neighbor, my son, my friend, myself. Do I pay my taxes? Then I'm supporting the government. Do I shop at WalMart? Then I'm supporting that corporation. Regardless of the argument you give me for paying my taxes or shopping at WalMart, that doesn't change the fact that I support both of them, just the reason for doing so.
We are not powerless unless we agree to be powerless. Centuries of indoctrination and passivity in the face of other people exercising the power we give them has convinced us we are victims. Nothing could be further from the truth.
If power is exercised over us, it is the power we give them that is used against us. To think otherwise is simply rationalization and denial.
Bravo!!!
Encore... Encore!
You are not living the authentic life, but I and about 3 billion other persons on this planet are. Come and join us.
-MobBarley
My understanding is that the Fed Funds rate is set by the Board of Governors BUT is only a REACTION to the Bond Yields determined by the market. If my understanding is correct, how can anyone predict the CB interest rate without also mentioning a Bond price prediction (in this case remaining flat) in the same sentence.
Although it seems like the FED is just printing "out of thin air", this is obviously not the case. All QE, and debt monitorization is backed by treasuries with the full faith of the US government. Like MBS's and Bank liquidity injections, they are only temporary swaps/repo's and must be eventually reversed. This is why the interest rates are still close to 0% and not much higher as one would expect if the FR was not acting so prudent....and I mean prudent for it's own self interest.
Ozzi, just when do you think the UST plans to pay off any debt? So far, this is not even being considered and probably never will be in our lifetime. So, if Uncle Stupid needs a $1trillion loan of new money this year, next year, and for each of several years hence PLUS needs to refinance existing debt, perhaps the Fed is a useful fund raising tool.
It's not called counterfeiting when the government does it. And if the pundits claim it's only a minuscule percent of GDP, then it must be ok. PS, at what point do you think Uncle Stupid plans to start borrowing to pay the interest?
I never said the Government was acting prudent. This is the problem. IMO, the US government is trying it's hardest to inflate us out of histories largest deflationary cycle but this wont happen. It can't happen. Impossible. If private credit does not expand, then you have no inflation. Banks aren't lending because there are fewer credit worthy borrowers left that actually want to take on more debt.
But to answer your question, I think you're right. 500% (Public + Private) Debt/GDP ratio will be considered normal (not miniscule but acceptable). Also, it already borrows to pay interest. That's what the debt market is all about. If it wasn't already paying the interest, the Bond market would have collapsed and interest rates would be through the roof.
Finally, I believe the biggest fear is this. Once/if/when the US steps down from being the largest market with the greatest military strength, it's all over.
"Finally, I believe the biggest fear is this. Once/if/when the US steps down from being the largest market with the greatest military strength, it's all over."
A prudent fear to have. For all of its faults, and there are many, the US has consistently provided more global charitable aid than any other nation. What other country will step in to fill that void? China? Russia? With the US out of the way, people will see what sorts of neighbors dragons and bears make.
We may have given more aid,but I think if you look at where the money went and who benefited youll find that it was misguided charity.Creating welfare states abroad and funding despots isnt really helping our people or the recipients of our "charity".Weve created generations of needy,uneducated people with no want/need to be self sustaining,both here and abroad.
That is a fear of mine. For all of the developed/democratic world's flaws, the level of individual freedom and respect for property rights far exceeds anything in most emerging countries. If power does shift west, countries that currently do not value individual liberties will ascend, and I worry how this will affect the balance between person and state here and abroad, and the nature of the world that my children will live as adults in.
Hmmm...let's concider this sequence.
Japan slipping out of second position of worlds largest economy.
Recently announces they will loosen their war spending limits that have been in place since WWII.
A government used to wasting Yen on jobs programs starts pouring more of its wasted Yen into building bombs instead of useless bridges. Begins exporting arms to it's neighbors (sans China) to boost their exports.
China sees this as an act of agression from an old rival and follows suit.
Lather...rinse...repeat....Then just looking for a flashpoint.
Minor nit:
If credit does not expand, then you have deflation in a debt based monetary system. If credit expands at the same rate as the interest of the outstanding debt, then you have no inflation.
That's really not a "minor" nit, is it, XO?
No, I think Uncle Stupid and the Fed intend to collaborate and ATTEMPT to sell almost infinite debt annually for several years while holding interest constant and avoiding inflation for as long as possible.
The textbooks say this is impossible. I think not. All you need is some innovative way to periodically create flights to safety while expanding UST debt. The Fed will monetize some at each fear trough to fuel up another miracle stock market recovery. Hence my roller coaster analogy. If true, expert to see the first signs early January.
The US federal govt has now nationalized insurance, banking, wall street, healthcare, automotive, real estate/mortgage banking, pharma,etc. But where did it begin? I say with America "pro" sports. The NBA, MLB, and NFL were natiionalized via free taxpayor paid sport stadia. These are also bankrupt institutions that used socialist means to obtain stadia. Dont like socialism? Look no further than the American baseball, football, and basketball. Yes, America, you are directly funding those million$ sports paychecks. And they say socialism cant work.......
That piece is full of grammatical and syntex errors. It is not a credible work of analysis. How the fuck can you have tax increases and an economic recovery? Impossible. How can you have a "jobless recovery?"
The idea of a "jobless recovery" is the most retarded concept ever thought of.
I hope their predictions are better than their fact checking. Shenzen province did not suffer an earthquake. Shenzhen is not even a province!
Two follows One, is an understatement. The worlds central bankers are all pretty much in the same boat here, and the monetary excesses in the US will spill over, unless the US trade deficit yawns. Not much mention of Bric-A-Brac, the BRIC nations trading among themselves and avoiding US markets altogether. The tone of the report is status quo, so I guess not. The question of increasing taxes is where are they coming from. America, on a state by state basis has already deployed the VAT, but some states lag in shifting over to sales tax revenue. Either way revenues will be dropping, while the slowing consumer puts some drag on sales tax revenues. This promises to be a spiral, lower sales tax revenue, more unemployment, and no, or failed government efforts to reinvigorate the non-service economy. Since a great many people work outside the reach of traditional labor statistics, its seems likely they will earn and be taxed outside the traditional IRS/Sales Tax network, and screams of underground economy will be made, with most Americans saying so what, more power to you, and start buying and selling under the table. Retailers will eat their share of the sales tax, to compete, which is what they have been doing.
SPX earnings growth up 24.8% yoy? Just who is wearing the tin foil hat? I don't see earnings or the economy gradually improving next year unless one considers more government stimulus to be an improving economy. And for those who do assume more government stimulus to be an improving economy, I would only ask when would we expect to pay back the extra debt? Higher taxes? That's a given, but the amount of tax evasion is reaching critical levels. Why, GS paid $14M in taxes last year....
Interesting piece, but ultimately just an opinion. It was also fatally marred by boneheaded syntax and vocabulary errors that read as the exact opposite of what I assume is the writers' true meaning. One can argue that this is quibbling, but when you aspire to gravitas, and there's real money on the line, you'd better get it right. A miss.
Well the health care bill isn't liberal. It isn't. If you think it is, you don't know crap about liberalism, and might as well teach the intracacies of the Mighty Morhpin Power Rangers, as it must be what you know clearly, as you wouldn't know liberalism from shinola.
If it was liberal it would have been single payer healthcare without a satanic N.I.C.E. (national institute for clinical excellence - I like to call it, the National Institute for Cutting Expenses). Of course it uses bunk, rigged statistics to somehow show it is not worth spending money on various EFFECTIVE TREATMENTS to keep alive patients who are deemed to have a 'life that is unworthy of life'.
What we got was a 'center' solution. You know the way our country has run and hasn't worked over the past 15 or so years!
How can you move from the center to the center? But that's only how it appears on the surface. Or more accurately from right to center?
If you look inside the bill, particularly pages 1001-1002, you'll see it is in fact a facist bill.
I don't see how you can pass a hitler (right wing fascism) bill and call it liberal. Just completely bucks the political spectrum.
I'm a liberal, and I see nothing liberal about THIS administration's policies. It's bush term III, except he's a democrat. Liberal, in PRACTICE, Obama is NOT! Wall Street and Queen of England lover, yep, just like Bush. Just like pretty much all the repubs and dems who aren't true to their beliefs, about 80-90 percent of them total, both parties.
The people aren't going to be moving to the 'center' because of this bill, if they are, we'll become even MORE UNGOVERNABLE. They people are moving against Wall Street and the Queen of England. Of course right now, they see it as only Wall Street, meanwhile they are against the policies - but as a whole are not aware of the Queen of England and the British Empire pulling the strings on the other issues they hate so much. (both dems and repubs!)
What they have to realize is, as long as change hasn't come, in the form of reigning in Wall Street, and the Queen of England, there will be no economic recovery, and thus no rest for our congress, of any party. The people are just going to get more pissed off, and rightfully so.
Also I love how they talk about quite a few of the things that indeed will drive us, except they mute the downside, and glorify the upside. If things break down the way they merely say it to happen, the downside they identify is 100x bigger and more significant than the upside they claim. This gives me the impression that they still see 1-2 percent growth, even if all this stuff happens? Wow, if this happens we'll be lucky for 10-20 percent losses. Break up of the Euro? The soverign defaults that would follow, and the collapse of the Euro Banking system would cause far more damage than merely help 'mute' the upside. That is only one of the issues they talk about.
Even then I think we get hit with more than they say.
They forget the Dems MIGHT lose because they are doing the bidding SOLELY of wall street and the Queen of England. That's why they might lose, not because America rejects the Democratic ideals. It's because the democratic ideals are nowhere to be seen in THIS congress and THIS president.
But the repubs are even MORE clueless. 100x more. You've literally got Dumb and Dumber. Go ahead and vote for Dumber, and see how bad things get.
Again this is where the 'analysis' of the current political landscape is qute wrong. Not only does it forget these things, it forgets how much the country was pissed off at Bush and the know nothing at all ever Republicans who ran this country into the ground and created this mess. Plus they made the error of voting AGAINST the troops (the repubs) and that's going to hurt them as the Dems will use that as much as the repubs tried to use it against the dems.
I honestly don't know who will win, because they're pissed off at both parties. Both parties leadership is clueless. Only medium sized pockets of democrats are true their ideals -mostly being those involved in the Progressive side as well as the Congressional Black Caucus, which is aghast at how piss-poor this African American president has kicked the poor to the curb during his administration.
I still think the American people believe in the Democratic ideals, BUT, it's going to have to be a different Democratic president, and a different Democratic congress.
Additionally about OUR stimulus vs. China stimulus. Our stimulus was a bunch of tax cuts and bullschmidt. (those tax cuts didn't really work did they? - they were half the stimulus, thus HALF of the non-effect that never happened)
Meanwhile China ACTUALLY BUILT THINGS with THEIR stimulus. It was ACTUAL stimulus, that totaled 3x the amount we did ON EVERYTHING including the non-bearing fruit tax cuts when compared to GDP.
In actuality the Chinese stimulated their economy IN REAL terms, by about 20x what the U.S. did. Probably more. They created something, we just created more debt.
We didn't have a stimulus package, we had a spending bill with tax cuts. None of which really impacted the economy, nor rebuilt America. Like always, the check is in the mail.
I applaud MF Global for making an effort to see what is their predictions for 2010, but they also missed alot of easy info, and didn't accurately guage reality. Additionally it seems that even if they see some of the variables in the coming crises, they largely underweight their impact, rendering their entire decision, faulty and inaccurate. (but of course it's a prediction right? lol)
Also have to completely agree with Ozzi about 'jobless recovery'.
Um...the Chinese built things that nobody needs nor will ever need.
Stimulus spent on useless things is the same no matter where it goes.
Let's ask the Japanese how that worked out for them, shall we?
Useless things? Yeah that's right, I agree that if it's spent on worthless things, what matters on what it is spent on?
But your view of building infrastructure as being worthless in a land which needs it and comprises about 1/4th the world's population as not being needed is folly. It borders on ignorance.
Or you are stating that if we spent money here in the US, it would be useless to us? I guess one doesn't remember or ever knew about the bridge collapse in minnesota during rush hour about a year ago? Then when you realize this could happen hundreds of times over the next decade or two if we continue to let these bridges degrade without repairing them.
Then again we haven't even talked about mag lev.
The funniest thing is, that these infrastructure programs are actually more beneficial to business than people. Yet business shoots itself it it's own foot. These are the type of idiots running wall street.
I'd like to see UPS do what it does without a National Highway system. I'd like to see JIT inventory without one.
I'd like to see how much more price competitive, and quickness to market with goods being delivered over a mag lev system, versus a trucking or regular train freight service.
Plus the fact that it isn't right to let our bridges collapse under us during rush hour traffic. (and without an earthquake triggering it)
Part of the problem we still have is the lack of recognition the build up of our infrastructure has had for us. We tend to forget that without FDR's new deal, America would not only have lost WWII, it would never of become a superpower.
It was only after we developed our infrastructure, that we became one. It wasn't private business that built it either. All the benefits big business has used to screw us with, they were first made possible by which they hate the most.
It's also been 40 years since it started collapsing, where the amount needed to repair it was more than we were putting into it. Since then it's gone downhill because we won't fund it, thus the minnesota bridge collapse, and the thousands of other bridges that are basically in the same shape and could fall any day of any year in the future.
You may deem it worthless, but that's not based on facts, just republican propoganda from the last 40 years saying it was. I suspect your heart is in the right place, but your head is clouded with bullschmidt.
Don't forget, Europe and China has mag lev, we do not. We are at a competitive disadvantage. Good luck making money with that.
In terms of infrastructure, we're the ones in the wooden boats.
What are you talking about? The world needs more aluminum plants, shipbuilding and cement. And once the world realizes they need it the Chinese will profit handsomely and finally be able to afford to live in their presently empty cities.
But all kidding aside -- some of the stuff the Chinese built will benefit their economy. Just as the railroad bubble, although a bubble that burnt its investors, worked out pretty well for the farmers in the Midwest.
Um, seriously? The Queen of England pulls the strings? The Queen of England is a pleasant-seeming old biddy who smiles and waves and reads out the occasional speech written by the more senior lackeys of elected politicians. She is totally irrelevant, except perhaps as a comparatively inexpensive source of tourist revenue.
Oh, wait, I forgot - the House of Windsor are a bunch of alien lizards. Ignore what I just wrote, your post makes total sense.
Is our current situation bad? Sure. Are we being fucked over by incompetent politicians and journalists and self-serving financiers? Sure. Is this the result of some thousand year conspiracy between the Rothschilds, the Illuminati, the Vogons and Emperor Palpatine? Um, no. Just run of the mill human greed and stupidity, incarnated in billions of bodies, interacting chaotically.
Anyone that even TRIES to suggest that the Rothchild's are not to blame for the worlds problems since the 1700's is either living under a sand hat or purposefully trying to help the wicked ones.
-MobBarley
2010:
Bad news: nothing but horse shit for dinner
Good news: there's lots of it
can we take a look at their 2008 predictions?
We can forgive the syntax, but where's the beef? If there are going to be tax increases, who do they benefit, and should we prepare? It may be we have reached economic stasis. It may be there is no room to move around, and therefore pockets of success will be crowded out in favor of a wide ranging sense of subpar economic mediocrity, the new normal as some analysts say, is going to be lower stock returns. I sorta think that once the boomer generation looks at their collective financial statements they are going to become a lot more conservative, and that means bonds. Bonds as far as the eye can see. Isn't that what PIMCO is doing, getting out there at the edge? Anyway this deficit won't be magic wanded away as it was during the Clinton years. Clinton has been so thoroughly discredited that one wonders if his wife has been buried under his coattails. Laura Bush probably has a better chance of being President. If anything there will be a backlash against the Femocratic Party, (Boxer, Feinstein, Pelosi, Reid, Kerry) and a return to male values, (whatever they are, Republicans note they sure don't include gay sex with strangers in public bathrooms). So stop painting the world pink, you're not the only ones who suffer, and we are not in Afghanistan to promote women's rights. That may be all the political revolution we can handle.
Agreed. Didn't really see anything other than their take on what the major trends will be. Not any interesting or thought provoking perspective on how they are likely to play out.
Let's hope that their "predictive" powers are better than their communication with shareholders on 2q(?) 2008 earnings expectations. The stock STB in June 2008, and spawned a memorable quote from Guy Adami on Fast Money - "They put the MF in MF Global" after it took a cliff dive of 40% in one day on 6/17/08.
Before I get razzed on watching Fast Money, please note that I only watch it once or twice a week as background while on the treadmill, fast forwarding to see if they have any interesting guests or market technicians on. Usually not. It wasn't that great with Dylan, it completely blows now. When I want to curl up with a MSM financial show, I'll take Pimm Fox's "Taking Stock" any day.
Here is the practical definition of social interaction: There is 1) capitalism/free market 2) Everything else is a variant of socialism. When my tax money goes to pay for some street hustling new york bankers bonus, thats socialism from my wallets point of view. When my tax dollars go to build the new york yankees new 3 billion$ stadium, thats socialism.
While a number of comments here do a great job of illustrating the group's ability at crucifying MF Global's outlook, the real value from the assessments made by MF's team are in portraying the sentiment in money flows and what potential catalysts can arise to materially alter the metrics behind them. As we are all ultimately traders and the final score board is our P and L, there is tremendous value in being aware of these 10 predictions/outlooks/themes. It's the spirit of these predictions which has the alpha potential, not attempting to build a set-it-and-forget-it strategy and subsequently hold their feet to the fire if it doesn't work out. Point four on the jobless recovery is a prime example of where the fulcrum of opinion lies in the trading public. I'm not so inclined or even well-versed in econometric modeling to suggest this is right or wrong. However, it is a key theme going forward, which based on NFP, jobless claims, fed speak, etc. encapsulates the market's attitude towards an environment which skews towards risk appetite or risk aversion... So under this pretext, being alerted to the themes of what is dictating the predominant perspectives amongst buy-side firms, the paper was invaluable...
The purpose is to collapse the current system and finally inact a "global system." In order for the sheeple & the psuedo-thinkers to accept a new global-system this system must collapse under the pretend weight of greed, mismanagement, and idiotic policy.
Devaluation of currency, record debt, even the Feds monetization policies is simply an effort to have Americans willingly embrace a global system, no eagerly embrace it.
Everyone always guesses and theorises about why the Fed would gobal up MBS and all of the other toxic assets. Well because they'll, and it is a private entity, actually own (for lack of a better way of putting it) EVERYTHING in our new gloabl economy--down to the air you breathe. Things are only worth the value peope place on them, so when it is time for the Feds assests to be valuable, and they will be redefined under whatever new global system is enacted as valuable.
The people, having embraced the idiotic notions of "jobless recovery," the idea of letting go of their rights to be safe from manufacured/orchestrated threats, weakened from constant pandemic scares, and destitute from trying to "go green" will eargerly embrace whatever form of lunacy is presented. Many won't even notice until it's too late that they own NOTHING, not even the air in they breathe.
Most on zh portend that they believe if you "follow the money" you'll know what's going on. Well the old-money is all about globaization, henceforth all decions made are about globalization.
Americans often wonder how Hitler did what he did and I would venture to say that it is a case of people becoming drunk on their own wisdom, having become "wise" America and (every other nation) are in fact blind fools.
The purpose is to collapse the current system and finally inact a "global system." In order for the sheeple & the psuedo-thinkers to accept a new global-system this system must collapse under the pretend weight of greed, mismanagement, and idiotic policy.
Devaluation of currency, record debt, even the Feds monetization policies is simply an effort to have Americans willingly embrace a global system, no eagerly embrace it.
Everyone always guesses and theorises about why the Fed would gobal up MBS and all of the other toxic assets. Well because they'll, and it is a private entity, actually own (for lack of a better way of putting it) EVERYTHING in our new gloabl economy--down to the air you breathe. Things are only worth the value peope place on them, so when it is time for the Feds assests to be valuable, and they will be redefined under whatever new global system is enacted as valuable.
The people, having embraced the idiotic notions of "jobless recovery," the idea of letting go of their rights to be safe from manufacured/orchestrated threats, weakened from constant pandemic scares, and destitute from trying to "go green" will eargerly embrace whatever form of lunacy is presented. Many won't even notice until it's too late that they own NOTHING, not even the air in they breathe.
Most on zh portend that they believe if you "follow the money" you'll know what's going on. Well the old-money is all about globaization, henceforth all decions made are about globalization.
Americans often wonder how Hitler did what he did and I would venture to say that it is a case of people becoming drunk on their own wisdom, having become "wise" America and (every other nation) are in fact blind fools.
This MF report is thinly veiled conservative crap backed by nothing but silly conservative truisms that have proved wrong for the past decade.