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Michael Burry Is Long Farmable Land, And Agrees With Paulson On Gold (But Not The Other "Recovery" Themes)
Michael Burry, who needs no introduction, was on Bloomberg TV earlier discussing his latest investment allocation, which no longer focuses on shorting real estate via the cheapest possible instrument, and instead is going long cash assets in the form of farmable land (oddly enough, not multi apartment commercial real estate), small tech, and, yes, gold. “I believe that agriculture land -- productive
agricultural land with water on site -- will be very valuable in
the future. I’ve put a good amount of money into that.” Burry, just like Zero Hedge, laments the surge in cross-asset correlations, which makes all hedging strategies virtually impossible, and is a primary reason for why so many rational investors have decided to depart from the market: "I’m interested in finding investments that aren’t just
simply going to float up and down with the market. The incredible correlation that we’re experiencing -- we’ve
been experiencing for a number of years -- is problematic." Lastly, Burry agrees with the Paulson-Greenspan view on gold, but not any of the other Paulson "Recovery" themes we presented in extreme detail over the weekend: "Paulson's big in gold, and that's something that is interesting to me given how I see the world playing out, but other than gold I haven't really bought into any of the other theses." (And no, you still can't eat it, dammit).
Full interview:
And a second interview in which he discusses why no one is accepting blame for the financial crisis;
Key quotes:
On who is to blame for the financial crisis:
“My number one concern is that there has been a complete utter total abdication of personal responsibility though out our entire society. I don’t think anyone anywhere is taking blame themselves for what they did to contribute to the crisis. And again I think it gets back to that blame game. It is the most damaging thing we can do as a country is to blame a narrow set and not look within ourselves for what each of us did or didn’t do to the basic wrong that led to this mess.”
“From the borrower to the average broker all the way to the federal reserve through Congress, the President, several Presidents, I think that this has been coming for awhile and there has been a lessening of the credit standards over a period of time that ultimately led to the kind of blow off top that we have.”
On the current housing market:
“It’s an artificial market. There are a tremendous number of homes where the home homeowner, I think it’s between 2.5 to 3 million homes, where the home homeowner are more than 9 months past due and are not giving notices that they are past due and they’re just living there for free. I actually know one that has been there for a few years without having to pay anything. I think that Fannie and Freddie are basically being used as special purpose vehicles by our government to support the housing market. The private mortgage market is practically nonexistent; 96-97% of mortgages are flowing through Fannie and Freddie now. I think Fannie and Freddie are exercising a tremendous amount of power over the market by withholding properties from sale and not forcing foreclosure, the foreclosure process. I think that it would be best for the government just completely got out of the mortgage market and let the housing, because home prices are a function of income the leverage applied.
On what he is investing in agriculture, real estate and gold:
“I believe that agricultural land, productive agricultural land with water on site, will be very valuable in the future. And I’ve put a good amount of money into that. So I’m investing in alternative investments as well as stocks.”
“I think there is some value in real estate. You have to buy it right. It’s not in general, that’s the problem. I think that there are an awful lot of people out there looking to buy these distressed properties out there and so you need to find special situations. That is how I’ve invested from the beginning. I’m looking for these special situations, these unique ideas and that’s true in real estate too.”
“In my situation I’d rather go long on housing itself, real estate itself. Depending on how you structure it, in the real market, in the physical market, you can get some pretty good deals and I’ve done some of that too.”
“Paulson is big in gold and that is something is interesting to me and given how I see the world playing out. Other than that, I’m just saying, other than gold I haven’t really bought into the other
On the danger of having more power for the Federal Reserve:
“Well, I don't feel that the economic theories and policies that got us into this mess are the same policies and theories that will get us out of this mess. And more to the point, I don't -- I'm 100 percent sure that the policies and theories that got us into this mess won't prevent the next mess from happening.
And that's probably my biggest frustration with the whole process. I don't think that -- I think with all the blame on Wall Street and all the focus on Wall Street -- the increase -- the perp walks for Wall Street -- these things, in a lot of ways, are non -- are not very productive. I think it's not very productive to blame a narrow set of individuals or a narrow set of institutions.
Nobody is taking time to blame anything that anybody in Congress did or the Fed did or the other businesses, you know, how the banks acted, how the mortgage brokers acted, how people acted, how borrowers acted. There's -- there's a lot of blame to go around. And I think this blame game being oriented entirely toward Wall Street is -- is not overall helpful.
On Goldman Sachs shutting down its proprietary trading business:
“I think that brokers should not trade for their own account in securities -- and securities that are also available to their clients. I just don't think that should be done. I think broking should be pretty boring -- safe, boring, low return business. And I think the same is true for banks. They should be very safe, solid, indestructible businesses. And so there are -- some of these seemingly Draconian measures, I think, do need to be taken.”
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"And no, you still can't eat it, dammit". But you can drink it!
You can't eat FRN's either.
You can eat it. Example:
http://www.dailyolive.com/got_1000_why_no.html
Farmable land bitchez!
Marry the farmer's daughter bitchez!
I loved him in Firefly.
LOL
The resemblance is remarkable. Nathan Fillion, Firefly and "Serenity" now.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0303461/
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0379786/
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0277213/
+10
AUD/JPY telling you to get long.
OK i could be quite useful on the farm. so if any of you strong men need a cotton picker or even water irrigation ditch worker, hire me. really, i worked a lot of the water irrigation ditches with my daughter one summer and learned. i can definitely manage the water wells and irrigation part of farmland. i could go look for some land for you who are working in NYC and have to wear suits and ties all day. scout out, may you. i also know how to track predator animals, if they present a problem to your crops, chickens and turkeys. coyotes are really dangerous to the turkeys. maybe we could collectively have a farm and call it zerohedge farm, or the farmland of zerohedge. we could all kick in together, even with your wives, who are probably worthless at doing anything except spending your money. shift in dynamics, you might say. i could teach your woman a thing or two about R E A L life and how to sustain your own. give it a thought and let me know.
I can build shit and have 2 trained mousers. Let me know if I can hang out in the back 40 as well.
kitty cats? actually to be a responsible land owner you need to find the holes or cracks that the mice are gaining entry through. cause it's your fault not the mouses. but we could think about you, if you changed your picture, fuu.
But I am a monkey with a gun. And I am not a responsible landowner, I rent. Oh well off to find the next group activity! =)
From personal experience, basket weaving is very relaxing during those times when I've committed....er....I mean been committed.
coggy dog, i knew you were gay the whole time. that is way i avoided you like the plague.
cept, i bought my first loom from a man, a mountain main, mind you, that climbed almost all of the 14's in colorado.
cheerio
What about darning socks? Tracking cougars is great and all, but a man's got to have socks with no holes in them!
Darning socks! Hell, I can knit em.
i knitted socks and dyed all my own wool. in fact i discovered new plants to use for different colors. urine for the mordant. i dyed all my own wool and spun it on a wheel. and i knitted
R A O U L long wool winter socks with his name on them. really special. so i could probably darn.
oh and just to let you know something. there is no plant in united states that yields navy blue or a true red. so i would have to order from over seas, indigo and the cochineal bug.
Cochineal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
try this for navy blue
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baptisia_australis
amaranth for red
pee good for both to dye
dupe
I don't have definite plans yet but have been giving a lot of thought to the idea that once I feel like gold and silver are reasonably valued then I'll trade for some land that should also be more reasonably valued at that time. Wouldn't it be swell to have something with a storefront and small farming potential? Get together with a small group with diverse skills, maybe close to other people doing the same, and, hey, isn't that how towns are started and cities were once built before Big Bro and Da Boyz bought up all the land and started taxing, adding fees, permits, zones, and codes so that no one could do anything other than work for them, leaving the unemployed with no productive alternatives and no memory of how to build and maintain what made the casino possible. Not to mention the stifling of creativity in art and design imposed by regulations and copier's copyrights. If we could untie the hands of the unemployed and maybe let those hands explore new skills... Sorry, started dreaming there.
It was working for me. cheers.
http://www.mindfully.org/Farm/2003/Everything-Is-Illegal1esp03.htm
"On every side, our paternalistic culture is tightening the noose around those of us who just want to opt out of the system — and it is the freedom to opt out that differentiates tyrannical and free societies.
How a culture deals with its misfits reveals its strength. The stronger a culture, the less it fears the radical fringe. The more paranoid and precarious a culture, the less tolerance it offers."
ya mon...beautiful essay...thanks hulk
"What happened to the home of the free?"
good question
One llama will suddenly make coyotes not want to come hang out on your land. Apparently they don't like to be spit on and kicked.
"One llama will suddenly make coyotes not want to come hang out on your land. Apparently they don't like to be spit on and kicked"
Yes, works on little children, too. VI has scare to prove it.
I've heard that, but it wouldn't be nearly as much fun as 5.56, NVG, and a FoxPro Caller.
Gold is completely edible. There are many references to gold in Escoffier's recipes. Shavings of gold leaf are not at all inappropriate with a variety of game dishes and sauces.
Greenback still taste better....with a good vinegrette
And you can't burn gold for heat.
OK - here's the deal.
All you - ahem - enlightened folks who "can't eat", or "can't burn", or otherwise can't use their gold for these kinds of daily activities...
I will trade your gold for any of these commodities. Any time, any where.
I will set the price, but, of course, you don't care about that, because all you want is "something to eat" or "something to burn for heat".
Nimrods.
sarcasm, nimrod
The dollar's only advantage over gold, insofar as you can't eat the dollar either, is that at the end of the day, if it ever came to that, when there is absolutely nothing left to trade for, perhaps then and only then will I trade you my gold for dollars, if its chilly outside.
Not for you, Ray baby.
Since Burry has liquidated Scion and only invests personally, one wonders why he is accepting interviews. Only makes him a target, with no upside, imho.
The new Schiff?
My thought exactly.
Ego?
Pump gold and Agri-land?
Start a new fund?
All of the above?
BTW: I agree with his take as I have had the same strategy three years ago.
Maybe he's just trying to help others with his advice?
Is that no longer an option in this day and age? If so, we're more screwed than anybody is saying and rightfully so.
Maybe he is tired of listening to the bs on TV and thinks someone with a half a brain not trying to sell something should speak up. Makes him a target for what anyway? Upside is maybe some people listen to him.
Any bank with a big trophy headquarters and a big trophy CEO in a big trophy city should be broken up. Problem solved
don't forget B I G trophy W I F E .
Got Farm Land?
http://www.aceshowbiz.com/images/news/00019172.jpg
I have to wonder about her motives. Most milking maidens have their hands UNDER the cow. Why is she, ah, pushing the cow's head down toward, well, OK... maybe that's the cue to hurry out to the barn! :-)
and there is no ETF for farmland, no REITS that i know of, do you suppose there is a conspiracy of sorts against allowing ordinary people to invest in these things?
Sprott has a closed end fund with large exposure to farmland and Gold/Silver - not expressing an opinion one way or the other - just pointing it out.
link please
http://www.sprottresource.com/investments-overview.aspx
(disclaimer: I hold no position, but used to.)
A perfect example of why things have gotten to the point they are, and where things will necessarily go.
Everyone looking to profit by doing NOTHING! Farming's hard work, you've got to get your hands dirty, son!
Farming's hard work, you've got to get your hands dirty, son!
Not when your bank account has 9+ figures.
http://www.nypress.com/article-21342-the-making-of-manhattans-elite-welf...
Yeah, like you're one of them! Pull your head out of fantasy land and get to work...
Also, would that be fiat dollars that they're hanging on to? Ha ha!
Yeah, like you're one of them! Pull your head out of fantasy land and get to work...
Thanks for the advice.
Hell Yeah!You said it partner.
Movie Quote(JAWS) "Give me your hands. Dogfish? You got a 5000 dollars net, you got 2000 dollars worth of fisherman. And along comes Mr. Whitey, by the time he's finished with that net, it... More »"Give me your hands. Dogfish? You got a 5000 dollars net, you got 2000 dollars worth of fisherman. And along comes Mr. Whitey, by the time he's finished with that net, it looks like a kiddy's scissor class has cut it up for a paper doll! You got city hands, Mr. Hooper. You've been counting money all your life."
Description:
Quint criticizes Hooper for being rich and never really working in his life.
Thanks for the clip!
I see your point about landowners.
What is the current pattern in this country? Are we still seeing a pac-man phase toward one big owner and new fines for the small farmers, like expensive organic certification and such? Has the tide turned or are we still putting local farmers out of business?
further consolidation... same as most every other industry. The number of crops that can be grown in a small amount profitably has dwindled...
Also, I'd put organic more into a cost category for large operations... the only way to maintain large commercial operations is with a lot of pesticides, etc., that would almost certainly jeopardize certification. Plus, real organic varieties are total shit... and difficult at best to grow... I large part, organic certification is what allows the little guys to actually compete because the fruits of their labor carry a premium sufficient to overcome the costs... not much of a chance on general cash crops... economies of scale and all.
Also, there are an incredible number of small farm owners... it's just that none of them actually farm... the art/science of farming is a dying endeavor... the tricks of the trade are not getting passed down... and, at this point, if you're not farming 10k+ acres, you have a pissant operation. The little guys can own land and generate income... but there is significant consolidation in farmers... (and to a lesser degree, land).
A local farmer where I live explained to my roomie why he stopped certifying his produce. He said that the methods he used didn't change before and after certification. All that changed was the fees, inspections, and such. So he said to hell with it. Now, he's selling the same product at a lower price but a much lower cost.
So, yeah, "organic" is shit because it forces a premium that can't cover its costs.
But we're touching on the subject of economies of scale, which is admittedly complicated, but I would like to add that often this is exactly how certain fees hurt the smaller farmers who can't pay off a regulator who's starting buy off fee is a hundred grand.
He's free to state how he grows his crops... and eliminate the certification...
I agree that it does often harm small farmers. The issue though is that, albeit small, there is still a window with organic farming for small producers... on generic cash crops, the door has been shut... for decades. Not much choice other than to keep nibbling on smaller and smaller pie. The uber shiek boutiques can get some of the tree huggers to pay enough premiums, but obviously this is a smaller market... substantially smaller.
I'm actually about to get rocking in the produce biz. Takes special soil and you either have to grow the shit no one else wants to or do twice as much work and smarter work at that... I just don't see much investment potential elsewhere that has the same... "i can put my hands on it" concept.
Good luck with that produce thing. Really. It's back breaking work and you have to put up with people who look you in the eye and tell you that tomato didn't cost any money to produce, or that you're taking advantage of everyone else because "you don't have to pay taxes." (see article above; I'm in that stereotypical small farmer guy who gets no handouts and only a small tax break). It's enjoyable, to an extent, but a huge financial drain so far.
Feel free to visit: www.squarestonefarm.com
My tomatoes are damn good, though.
corky,
how did your reisentraube grow this year? enough to make some wine?
curious about your mobile irrigation systems. coming sooner than later?
ever think about joining NYC greenmarkets? you know that area used to be the 'breadbasket' of the eastern seaboard back in the early 19th century. it's all about the greensand baby.
I'll have to research the wine thing. I heard people do that but don't know how myself. I have lots of dandelions, too - organic ones!
Mobile irrigation exists for real and I have to put something together for that... once the season ends.
The whole greenmarket, CSA, farmer's market thing is a catch-22; you have to dedicate your whole working week to that, and without a positive income stream, I need the day job.
But is is funny how people ask why it's called the Garden State.
fat-fingered duplicate post
There's a company Cresud (CRESY) with some farmland and related business http://www.cresud.com.ar/cresud/index_eni.htm
I owned that for a while! the land is in Argentina, which raises some issues.
Does nayone know if there are any vehiclesw such as lp's taht invest in farmland? is there any practical way to invest in farmland without actually buying it in idividual parcels? If you do, how is it easy to pay a manager to watch over the property? If anyone can enlighten me, i would greatly appreciate it.
same here.
This will be incredibly general... but, as far as distributed ownership of farm land, this is generally a no go. It is practically very difficult to maintain all the necessary formalities as well as maintain maximization of farm subsidy programs (need real people) with a large distributed ownership of farm land...
Also, finding a tenant farmer is incredibly easy. Any farmland that you would purchase would almost certainly already have a farmer and possibly an existing lease. Generally, a change in ownership is not a big issue... As owner, you could choose your tenant if you believe the previous tenant is not up to snuff. Also, you get to choose the terms of your payment and there are two types: cash rent or crop rent. Generally, cash rent is simply renting the land to the farmer, much like CRE... With crop rent, you take a % of the crop the farmer grows on your land, generally 25%. The farmer hauls the grain to a mill that is privy to your crop share and when the mill distributes checks, you get your cut from the mill instead of relying upon the farmer to be honest (although the farmer may shave off plenty of bushels unnoticed). If it's that big of a concern, you can hire someone at harvest to inspect...
The largest problem with farms is that you generally cannot have any leverage and make anything. Around these parts, you're looking at ~$100-150/acre for cash rent and the land costs $3,000+/acre. This is not a scheme for getting rich. Obviously some specific crops may pay an incredible amount and be lottery tickets, but the lion's share of farming is solely sustainable on cheap decent and distribution and non-taxable exchanges. Further, I suspect many farmers take their liberties with deductible "expenses".
PS, you're probably at least a decade late to the party... and would be buying at the peak.
+ what he said.
WTF are you talking about. get real, boy. it's the journey not the destination. times are changing. no more of your make money off of someone else's hard work. exploit the land and it's owner. this is the kind of mind change that has to happen to you money making people, creating ETF's off of farmland, why not CDS or CDO. jeeze you guys are a hunch of hypocrites.
To start with, if you are managing other people's money, they don't take kindly to suggesting that they go milk cows, disc fields, cut hay, etc. They kind of like the idea of their capital working for THEM! Companies like Cresud invest the client's capital in agriculture-related businesses, and - if all goes well - provide a return on that invested capital to the client. What's wrong with farmers receiving PRIVATE capital?
It's a win-win.
We call it CAPITALISM...!
Capitalism's dead. Sorry to break the news. Good luck figuring what your next move is...
The markets are probably dead, agreed. Capitalism will only die when freedom to transact private business dies. We are damned close to that right now - but I'm not giving up yet. I may be bartering hogs for horseshoes in five years time, but that surplus of horseshoes may end up being my seed capital for a mule-drawn tiller. Trade will continue, no matter how primitive, and capitalism is the by-product of free people who engage in trade.
Further encroachment on freedom will, I'm afraid, lead to the dissolution of the political ties that once bound us together as a nation.
Do you want investments, or do you want to live?
Piling your weath into some far away paper vehicle, does anyone see problems with this down the line?
Take that money and invest it into your local community, into local farming. Start up some sort of co-op; maybe it only returns a food dividend, but at least you can see, touch, and feel your investment AND, it can help keep you alive.
One investment might be to help pay for some younger people's education/training. Now There's a novel concept!
hey Jooooooooooooohny Braaaaaaaaaaaaaavo..and Robo Trader..where are you guys...wating for Fabrizio waves written on the back of napkins to tell you where gold is going...what a crock of shit...instead of watching your graphs...stick your tiny brains out the window and look at real things...couldnt be more ignorant if you two tried...in other words you have hit your limit...stupid as can be...
This guy is absolutely right. In 2007, I sold all of my real estate in NY and Conn and purchased a large tract of
very fertile farmland somewhere in the deep south. The soil is black gold and I don't need to use a ton of fertilizer
or Monsanto GM seeds to produce outstanding crops. It requires a lot of manual work but its been a great investment.
There are some big players that are quietly acquiring land where the environment is clean and labor is cheap.
If you think you can inconspicuously purchase large tracts of land in the southern united states, then you need to think again. We have an incredible amount of yankees coming in here buying up our farm land and paying 1.5x market rates for it. Most of the local money is sitting on the sidelines waiting for the bubble to burst. Also, I hope that you had good attorneys, land managers, and scouts who found the best property in which to invest... generally, if you're not from around these parts, you're not going to get any land worth a shit... it is generally multiple generations old and, even if it does get sold, it will be to a neighbor.
If you want any deals on any farm land, you need to go to another country... my guess is south of the border. Which is why the big dogs have been amassing it in multiple countries... return on investment is still of concern to some.
You don't know the facts or maybe you just have a strong fear of yankees "stealing" YOUR land.
I purchased my tract at a very good price and theres no one buying land at 1.5X market value...
that's nonsense. Purchasing land south of the border is a worthless exercise except in small parts of
Brazil. The environment is trashed and there is great political risk.
Obviously all markets vary, but prices here are 150% of just even a few years ago... ~5-7... the reason the prices have increased is not because of the increase in commodity prices nor profitability... farms are not a get rich quick scheme... the math never worked unless you're lucky enough to buy without leverage or get a hand me down or 1031 into it (when you traded your properties in, did you hire a tax lawyer to handle the non-taxable exchange? If so, do you think this might have had something to do with the price you were willing to pay for the land?). The prices are increasing because people are flooding the market with demand.
I don't care who it is... I just see plenty of land being bought for what the yokels consider outrageous prices... I concur. I don't think anyone is stealing it... although, I do have considerable reservations about the 1% owning all the arable land and its socio economic consequences.... despite most all of it already being owned by the unattached wealthy. The biggest question being, what were the means in which you utilized to derive the capital necessary to purchase the lands... if honest, then kudos to you... if not, then expect that skeleton to be raised from the closet before this is over.
I have no idea what you purchased, where, or the purchase price. In other words, I was speaking in generalities and not to you in particular. You could have obtained your land at a fire/tax sale for all I know (better odds of winning the lottery).
I agree on the assessment outside of america. But I was speaking as to yield and, obviously, with return comes risk.
P.S. I was born and raised in the deep south so I know you are full of S#@t
You're telling me the prices for farm land is not increasing? That people who are not from the area who are desirous of purchasing land there must rely upon other peoples' judgment as to virtually all things associated with the land? That the best farm land stays in the hands of a family for multiple generations? That if you purchase a large tract, the yokels don't talk about it over breakfast on sunday? What specifically am I wrong about?
PS, I don't give a shit about you personally... I'm speaking as to general trends... obviously you could provide anectodal support or contradiction, but I do not believe it would be dispositive of the issue.
One of the ways we disenfranchise ourselves and are disenfranchised is to allow ourselves to be cast, and more importantly to cast ourselves, as victims. By being the victim of greedy bankers, corrupt politicians and corporations etc. we can repudiate the blame (I was screwed so don't look at me) and continue to focus on our needs and wants while ignoring our neighbors, community and nation.
Passive aggressive to ourselves by ourselves.
Exactly! The mirror, the mirror!
I've been saying this, that EVERYONE was involved. I feel a bit like Burry, in that I profited from it all, but that I now feel an obligation to apply those profits toward core/fundamental things. And, like Burry, I'm long farmland: hoping to be able to hand it over to my wife's kids. It's no longer about being self-absorbed or greedy, it's about survival, survival for the next generation...
edited
OK, call me dumb. But the videos are only the first half of each interview. Anyone knows were the other half can be found?
Don't know where it all is, but here's the Bloomie article.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-07/michael-burry-predictor-of-mortgage-collapse-bets-on-farmland-and-gold.html
Thanks CD
We look at our small plot of farmland with a little house as the same type of investment as our gold and silver: we won't get rich, but we will eat well and survive when NYC millionaires are reduced to begging for scraps after fiat is rendered worthless. We have a large garden, a few chickens, a goat, spring-fed water supply, and like-minded neighbors. We bought way below market in a town in upstate New York, and we intend to hold the property until the day we die.
Oh, yeah, and we cashed out our IRA's, paid the taxes, paid cash for our land and pm's, and are now immune from any confiscation grab by this soon-to-be-history admistration.
Maybe from this administration. But one is never ever immune from confiscation grabs. Never. History is littered with poor disenfranchised souls who thought they were immune for a large variety of reasons.
The weakest are always assaulted first. And I'm not talking about physically so much as political power. If those in power find your little plot attractive, you can kiss it (and your PMs) goodbye unless there are enough similar souls willing to take a stand politically.
You are correct, in that nobody is ever truly immune. However, we are better off than anyone with paper cash tied up in an on-line account or with pm's in accounts held in banks. We have worked to pull in our perimeter to a point where we are basically hiding in plain sight. We are far enough away from major cities that we aren't on the fast track for the hordes in jack-boots. Our neighbors and most of the folks up and down the hill are hunters, farmers, libertarian types that would fight to the death for their own property. As for pm's, um, what pm's? Don't know what you are talking about. Shiny metal, you say? Nope, ain't seen none of that around here...
Risk management 101 starts with the obvious and progresses from there. Good for you. Don't forget the other PMs, lead and brass and charcoal and saltpeter etc.
And I bet your peace of mind and spiritual (not saying religious) happiness, being connected to the land, your family and community, is at an all time high.
Bravo! The only thing that's shiny around there is the white of the revenue collectors' eyes. :>)
Thanks for your thoughts, CD... Got all those covered... just didn't want to get too wordy. Gotta leave something for the imagination...
Keep up the good fight!
Hope he's factoring impending ecological thresholds and regime shifts in his analysis of where to buy farmland!
What is now the best farmland likely will not be in as soon as 15 to 20 years.
aside from dwindling water tables, use of pesticides/chemicals, and guesses of polticical stability, how would one sift through the possible variables? Some things are vastly easier to research/surmise than others...
having grown up on a farm it's not easy grabbing the tit and making it work for ya. and wait till the ragin bull decides "it's your turn now, buddy." oh, you'll run. LIKE THE WIND! farmland is nice but it's food i want. funny how girls with a stretching nose don't get that.
Somebody who knows......
DOW/S&P500/FTSE/EURO short signal continues :
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Here's my favorite farmland:
BWEL
go mike go. we luv u.
Low leveraged prime multi-family housing close to public transit and amenities will have the same affect and is easier to acquire. It also generates a slightly positive yield to long term debt. You may not be able to eat it but you can inhabit it and so can your downsized clientele. Go Mike! Gold is for suckers. Gold is the dot com stock of this decade.
So the KC Fed seems to be the first to point out the dire circumstances of the current economic situation. There's lots of ariable land in the midwest. Most midwest states are fiscally better off than their coastal contemporaries. Could the 'flyover' states be our version of EU's Germany? Perhaps the big Fed should move to our breadbasket. A little distance might be good.
even if tptb confiscate or outlaw goldies, we are so vindicated by mb's endorsement. if only he would come on here and break it down for us...the particular vehicle of his pm bet.
callin' out mikey! break it down for us bro.
It's funny to listen to investment types talk about farmland. At least he got the water part right. There's about nine other factors that matter though and unless you're a farmer and know farmer's where you're buying you're probably not going to get more than five of them right. Being a country boy, it's sort of funny seeing cidiots invade. Most give up after 3 years. The stubborn ones make it five. Just saying.
It's funny to listen to investment types talk about farmland. At least he got the water part right. There's about nine other factors that matter though and unless you're a farmer and know farmer's where you're buying you're probably not going to get more than five of them right. Being a country boy, it's sort of funny seeing cidiots invade. Most give up after 3 years. The stubborn ones make it five. Just saying.
Productive farmland will likely be better than paper investments if things continue to deteriorate, but there are large risks.
Peak oil impact, mishandled by government, could make (modern) farming difficult to say the least. Fuel, fertilizer, pesticide, herbicide and distance to market among many factors here. Organic methods could become cost effective.
Climate? Some tell me it is getting warmer, others say it is getting cooler. What i see is increased volitility in the weather, not a good thing for farming. (a few whisper that i needn't worry, cause government is now managing the weather!)
Politics? Wouldn't put "land reform" a la Mugabe or collective farms past this bunch.
Buying a small place for cash, where you can raise a good bit of your family's food does make sense, if you (or family members) know how, are in shape, have the time and don't have to commute.
Nice article thanks.
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