Michael Pento Says Double-Dip Recession Is Now Guaranteed

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Wed, 06/09/2010 - 17:51 | 404515 painequalschange
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"high-paying dividend commodity stocks"

such as?

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 17:58 | 404535 pigpen
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Sorry computer glitch. Only meant to post once.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:31 | 404632 Freebird
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Fat fingered Piggy.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:03 | 404546 Monkey Craig
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Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:03 | 404547 Lets Hang Parliament
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Well once upon a time BP...

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:08 | 404562 Careless Whisper
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pento has perfected the "whatev" raised eyebrows, hands in the air. (@ 3;48)

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 21:46 | 404984 Howard_Beale
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Yeah, he has that one down. Pento reflects what the collective at ZH already knows. The double dip is underway. Where is George Costanza when we need him to put on his best Bernanke impression and scream at someone about double dipping. Now THAT would be funny. Jason Alexander, you have been paged.

But back to being seriously serious, Pento's thesis that we will suffer a severe market decline (guaranteed on that one), QE 2 will go into effect, and to load up on materials is a dicy prediction for me. I think there will be enough hedge fund failures forced to liquidate these commodities that we might get the opposite effect. Without China doing their storage game as they did in QE1, where will the demand be to get away from fiat currencies? There may be no demand for materials at all. To believe that QE 2 will actually produce the same results as the first round of QE is iffy, at best. Where are the safe havens? I don't have the answer. I have gold, I have silver, and no debt. I worry constantly about what to do with what I have. I guess I fall not in stagflation as Pento does but in the all out depression camp. Writing really helps one figure out where they stand at times.

So while I agree with Pento that we are on the next leg down, not so sure about his idea where to put your money when the S&P is at 850. Since I am short the market in fiat dollars, and am not a currency trader, and I know I am not alone here, the thought that commodities will be the things to own when China has already stockpiled what they need for now and many years forward seems to be last year's trade.

Open to all comments on this. My gut is that QE 2 will not be met with the same reception as QE 1. Stagflation, depression, hyperinflation. The same discussion we have had on this blog since I joined last July. I guess we will have to wait and see. Because I sure don't have the answers and don't trust anyone else with what I have but myself.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 22:13 | 405044 Mr Creosote
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While I don't have the answers, I think you're ahead of the pack by having some PM and no debt.  I'm more concerned about deflation than inflation presently. In which case, I'm comfortable with a larger cash position and a conservative portfolio with a strong dividend yield.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 00:13 | 405239 RockyRacoon
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QE-2 will come.  Or, it's in the process of it as we speak.  It won't be called QE-2, or anything else.  Congress will have no input.  Did Congress vote on AIG?  The Fed doesn't want an audit!  Now we know why.  Not only would the common folk burn down half of DC, but Congress would tar and feather Bernanke.  QE-2 will be (is) a quiet operation.  We should be looking for those back-door signs, not an obvious move to liquefy that can take criticism.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 01:54 | 405330 Pondmaster
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Howard -


I have the same concerns as you . Where is a safe place ?!?!? Like Fox Mulder , I trust no-one . Top o list - Our Gov't , next on list , Big Banks (TBTF) , next corporate America , next MSM , and lastly myself . I am trying to preserve what wealth I have for my families . My wife leans to spend spend spend  (aka capital improvements ), if dollar is heading north (hyperinflation). I do see selective inflation ahead , especially in the areas that CPI excludes , foodstuffs and energy (aka Climate Bill that will destroy us ) . Thats why I frequent ZH , to find ideas to assimilate .   

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 10:15 | 405782 WaterWings
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Marriage, yes. For some an asset. Others, a liability.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 05:40 | 405468 total nonsense
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Very well said, I think you are exactly right that there will be nowhere safe to hide. I have owned gold on and off here but my fear is the same as yours that when it all breaks down everything will get smoked. Hmmm smoked ( maybe weed is the place to be) haha...But i think in this situation that cash is king and that is where you should be. Sitting on that cash will come in very handy when the market gets crushed and you will be able to pick through some great companies and stocks. I would say GOLD but i am a little up in the air about the deflation/inflation idea.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:03 | 404549 Spitzer
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BP, 10% yield not good enough ?

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 21:49 | 404994 Howard_Beale
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Chapter 11 is good enough for me.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 22:32 | 405087 jeff montanye
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ge's yield was rich until it wasn't.  these aren't contracts.  they are policy choices.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 22:49 | 405122 Spitzer
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GE was into financial services.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:10 | 404571 Sudden Debt
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Air! It seems everybody is using it!

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 19:05 | 404707 Kurtieboy
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Link not working.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 19:29 | 404753 Cognitive Dissonance
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This YouTube direct video looks correct.


Wed, 06/09/2010 - 19:49 | 404812 Double down
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Thanks CD

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 20:15 | 404842 SWRichmond
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Margaret in red....thanks CD.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 21:23 | 404946 Cognitive Dissonance
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It looks like the video Tyler is talking about is the second one. The first one has pretty Margaret in red. Both total about 9 minutes. Both worth watching. Michael Pento doesn't suffer fools very well, even pretty ones in red dresses.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 22:03 | 405021 Howard_Beale
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You can continue to eat and drink as you read this. I can't top my Special Olympics earlier post--been saving that baby for months since I want more categories other than blind hurdles and quad long ski jumping in my never to be published but always politically incorrect Youtube animated farce of the truly "Special" Olympics.

In my post above I have commented about the nearly one year I have been around here and the Stag vs Hyper vs Depression debate we have always had. No one knows the answer and we are all preparing as best we can. I think this all falls into your work and I just wanted to thank you for it.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 05:56 | 405478 Cognitive Dissonance
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Thank you, both for you humor and your kind words.

The last 2 Chapters begin to pull everything together and I do talk about where we go from here. But some people might be disappointed because it means change and personal responsibility and not someone else doing the hard work. And of course it all begins within.  

The thing is that this will come, it will happen, people will become more responsible for themselves and their governance. The question is how much pain do we wish to endure until we make the decision to stop the pain.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 21:17 | 404934 FEDbuster
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Oil and gas MLP's like Linn Energy (LINE) current yield about 10%.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 22:55 | 405134 bbbilly1326
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Rio Tinto RTP ?

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 05:10 | 405446 Bay Trader
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check out TOT. 4th largest megaoil by market cap, dividend yield currently at 6.88%, p/e below 10. the world will not stop using oil anytime soon and that near 7% dividend is a nice cushion

Thu, 06/17/2010 - 13:28 | 419693 Dr. Dre
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sorry for delay in answering this question - the login approval thing took some time.  

Canadian Oil Sands baby...

check out Claymore Canadian Royalty Trust ETF -- but rather than buy that just buy components directly..  Also a great resource is this site -- independent energy analyst who posts on web for free +30 days after publication.  http://mcdep.com/

Here is what is "solid" about these stocks:

* High, High dividends 8-11%

* this gives (somewhat) of a floor on the equity pricing should we have deflationary bout and oil goes south

* on the other hand Canadian Oil sands (which most of these are) have a high marginal cost of production (btw 60-80/BBL) so when prices go over that (and I say when, not if), you are highly levered to oil price gains...


somewhat limited downside, strong upside potential and phat dividends -- you are paid to wait.  About 80% of my equities are in these guys...  good luck 


ps. wait for energy pullbacks -- Support for WTI is $65 and Resistance around $85 -- if we get a big crashola a la eliott wave jolt in 4Q as some are saying -- okay oil will be below $65-- maybe mid $50-s but load up the boat baby -- it will triple by 2013-2014 if not sooner...



Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:09 | 404564 Sabremesh
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If you ask that question six more times, the Good Lord will provide you with an answer.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 07:28 | 405528 blindfaith
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"they know not what they do" sums it up.  Maybe the 'good lord' is out of hearing distance, yea...thats gotta be it.  Or else 'he' is tired of hearing the same old crap.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 19:16 | 404739 deadparrot
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Hate? If he hates anything, it's BB.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 19:08 | 404713 Hephasteus
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C-C-Combo breaker

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 17:58 | 404536 nwskii
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since you asked 7 times no answer is needed

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:05 | 404553 Duuude
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Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:10 | 404570 Sabremesh
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Some people will believe anything. Sorry, I was joking - there is no God.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:12 | 404576 Blues Traveler
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sabremesh, God is dead...God "sabermesh is dead"

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:20 | 404599 gmrpeabody
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Wed, 06/09/2010 - 17:59 | 404537 Pladizow
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Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff, Gerald Celente and many more, could not have said it better.

In a year or two from now, will Ben testify to the fact that no one could have seen the double dip coming?

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:02 | 404542 Conrad Murray
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We need to all throw down on a Hollywood costume/make-up artist.  Get someone from the ZH crew all fancied up like one of the Congrescreeps and have him or her sit in on one of those hearings and get the shit flying.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:07 | 404556 Duuude
Wed, 06/09/2010 - 19:10 | 404689 The Rock
The Rock's picture

but of course!!

Congress:  So you do know where the economy is heading?

Ben: It wouldn't be inaccurate to assume that I couldn't exactly not say that it is or isn't almost partially incorrect. Oh, on the contrary. I'm possibly more or less not definitely rejecting the idea that in no way with any amount of uncertainty that I undeniably do or do not know where the economy shouldn't probably be, if that indeed wasn't where it isn't. Even if the economy wasn't at where I knew it was, that'd mean I'd really have to know where it wasn't.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 19:11 | 404725 akak
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+10 Greenspans!

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 19:16 | 404738 sushi
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A new paradigm sums it up succinctly.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 00:18 | 405245 StychoKiller
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Alexander Haig:  "I decisioned the necessification of the resignatory action/option due to the dangerosity of the trendflowing of foreign policy away from our originatious careful coursing towards consistensivity, purposity, steadfastnitude, and above all clarity."

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 03:20 | 405397 Woosirsir
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I guess I know what you are saying ....

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 17:59 | 404538 Conrad Murray
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A solid and succinct explanation.  Nice clip.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:04 | 404552 Monkey Craig
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anyone else having difficulty loading this video?

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:17 | 404590 Let them all fail
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what video? (yes)

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 19:23 | 404755 Narcolepzzzzzz
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Had the same problem, found it on youtube:


Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!