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Michigan Confidence Beats As New Home Sales Plunge 8.1% On Expectations Of 1.6% Rise, Months Supply Rises From 8 To 8.6 Months
US consumers are confident that their imminent bail out of an austere Europe will boost their living conditions, as austerity is now certain to never come to the US, thanks to the "wealth effect or bust" mandate of the Federal Reserve. Confidence came at 71.6 on expectations of 69.5. Since this number is a catch 22 which follows the respondents response to the stock market ramp it is nothing but a coincident indicator to stocks. Yet an actually relevant economic number, new home sales, came at 283k, on expectations of 312k and compared to the previous print of 308k. This was a 8.1% decline compared to expectations of a rise of 1.6%. The mood of the manic depressive market is now spilling over to virtually every economic category.
On new home sales, we see months supply rise from 8 months to 8.6 months.
Sales of new single-family houses in October 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 283,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.1 percent (±16.1%)* below the revised September rate of 308,000 and is 28.5 percent (±12.6%) below the October 2009 estimate of 396,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2010 was $194,900; the average sales price was $248,200. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 202,000. This represents a supply of 8.6 months at the current sales rate.
Curiously, while both in August and September at least 1,000 homes in the $750,000 category were sold, October saw a decline to the dreaded Z category, which is indicative of less than 500 (0 - 499) units in the category sold.
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Durable goods, housing not showing anything good here.
And an inconvenient fact ZH 'forgot' to report about: today the core PCE price index dropped to 0.0% on 0.1% expectations.
The US is on the verge of deflation - not on the verge of hyperinflation :-)
Doesn't core PCE exclude food and fuel?
Yes, correct, that's what the 'core' bit is about. You can read more about the purpose of 'core' indices here:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/26/core-logic/
It's not about measuring everyday inflation. The core portion is the most sticky bit economically - so if that is deflationary we are in trouble. Note that even the food, fuel included PCE index is dropping:
(5-year data:)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?bgcolor=%23B3CD...
(50-year data:)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?bgcolor=%23B3CD...
Note the spike after the 2009 stimulus+QE1 - but it's dropping again.
And you believe the "official" numbers put out by the Fed?
So you think that the Fed releases faulty data or falsifies data? Mind sharing your proof for that?
YES... EVERY PUNK FEELS LUCKY!
So real estate has hit the bottom and it's a good time to buy right? HAHAHAHAHHAHAA
This is a big football weekend, so who gives a shit right? Football is important. Monetary and fiscal policy is best left to the adults while the kids play.
+1111... Dr. Sarcasm cheers me up...
Sarcasm indeed, but tits a shame that most of American society fals right into that cozy depiction of the ignorant masses.
Wrap the turkey leg to go please, I need to go charge up my credit card on some stuffed fucking animals to go along with the 8 million others currently smashed into our walkin closets. Can never have too many stuffed animals.
I need to divorce me wife. Jesus christ.
Happy thanksgiving.
Do prefabs and tents count as new homes ?
How about cardboard boxes and trash cans.
I'm eyeing a great waterfront villa down by the river (under an interstate overpass by a drainage culvert). New construction (corrugated brown box used once) with lots of expansion opportunities (just use scissors). No property taxes and the neighbors are transient (homeless as well). Welcome to your new home Amerika!!!!
"US Consumers" aka citizens are just looking forward to a free lunch at some one else's house on Thursday...
Hence the rise in this pointless bullshit statistic...
Good grief. This has to be the most Orwellian number massaging in a long time.
CConnedsumer connfidence is up?
Up must be the new down!
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
US consumers are confident...
Not really. More like "US consumers have the attention span of a gnat on crack". So now that DWTS is over they'll move on to their 2nd favorite activity (next to sitting on the couch and watching the idiot box) - shopping with money they don't really have.
Hey, that's the new retirement plan!
http://content.usatoday.com/community/comments.aspx?id=41225940.story&p=6
Next jobless/unemployed person I see I'm going to tell him that the Michigan Confidence indicator was better than analyst expected. See what he says.
You can't make this shit up!
http://tinyurl.com/2apoyjz
So rar, retail stocks are pretty much unfazed by:
- PIIGS problems
- "Inflation/Deflation" debates
- Peak Oil
- Currency gyrations
- Plunging economic statistics
- Record unemployment
- Collapsing housing market
Where is Eric King, Gerald Celente,or Karl Denninger with an explanation for this?
LOL...
Thanks Robo...this picture indicates where all my tax dollars must be going year over year...
No. However, it does show where your drug money is going.
This must be the day before Super Bowl.
Robo, if you discount(!!!) statistical manipulation, social engineering by TeeVee and Flouride in the water as a dumber downer, you might have a point.
But to discount those things is disingenuous.
It works for a trader (you), but for most people/sheeple it's being led by their noses to their own demise.
That is what King/Celente/Denninger and their ilk are screaming hoarse about. I think they deserve a hat-tip, not a trader's derision.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
+1 ORI.
XRT ramp makes sense. All the wimmins living under Rainman's roof get depressed when not buying useless trinkets or other junk that winds up in the Salvation Army truck within 6 months. Old habits hard to break despite beatings.
Visa, Amercian express or silver dollars?
...and then there was the very upbeat information from Tiffany's this morning...so the crows are still attracted to bright and shiny objects....while not reported in the WSJ, I wonder how Cartier is doing this season? I would guess they are having a record year in NYC, being an indirect target for all the POMO $$$$$$$$.
S&P is going to roar like a lion for a month and ZH crowd will go into coma hearing that sound. After that downhill ?
Looks like crack sales have been good for these guys! Robo one other question? Where was Ben Bernanke when Eric King, Gerald Celente, and Karl Denninger called the depression back in 2007? Oh that's right he was on CNBC saying there was no crisis...LOL... Let me ask you one question? What did you think would happen to the economy when 13.5 TRILLION DOLLARS was poured into it? Of course there will be some short term gains however when the party is over and all the drunks are sprawled out on the floor amidst millions of maxed out credit cards, rest assured Eric King, Gerald Celente, and Karl Denninger will be right again. You see turning a blind eye to the real problems and living off hope and borrowed time only makes things worse when reality sets in.
Midnite at Chinamart.
Love it! Nicely done, Robo!
But Robo, you promised gold would drop, that we should sell, sell, sell,
yous just a hoe!!
I'm feeling pretty confident.
You can always "SQUAT" in a McMansion. LOL enjoy the par-tay:
http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/Squatters-110233439.html?dr
Lovely.
This confidence report has to be about the most worthless report they announce. How do you verify it as being legit?
Oh well, rally on.
Gee, Americans aren't buying new homes? Who knew? With a shadow inventory of REO in existing approaching 4 years supply, why would anyone in their right mind buy "new?"
Oh, that's right, 20% of Americans are mentally ill. That means when I get together with relatives for Thanksgiving dinner, me and probably one of the older folks will be designated mentally ill and thus, qualified to buy a new home.
Ever wonder why so many statistics are presented in m/m fashion instead of y/y? Because drops of almost 30% would scare the shit out of the sheeple and that would be a big mess.
Real economy stuff goes South (durable good, new homes) as the paper economy makes further progress (consumer conf, stocks). It's just mirroring the biflationary economy that the Fed has set up. Everything you own deflates and everything you need inflates, so why buy anything that you'll need to own, maintain, and be responsible for? People's money is better spent on Gizmos, gadgets and gimmicks from China. And you still need food and gas too.
Biflation, yep. The peasantry (99.8%) of all of us further down the spiral, top .2% swimming in all time high lap of luxury.
Trying to ignite the animal spirit but reality and tv never match up. When illusions are delusions and they persist, the reversion to the mean - reality – will be a bitch.
You ever get struck by one of those moments when like a fuckin piano falls on yer hed by the sheer mind-fucking stupidity of the wonderdickheads in finance and the military in whose fat piglike hands the whole of human civilization is kept either without decent shoes, on the verge of bad teeth, in indentured servitude and desensitized, from their imaginations, from worthwhile interests, from those whom they love, or people around themselves....no, all, everything, every fething penny, every incestuous law, the sum work of professional conduct solely for that one fucking percent whose ancestors were robbers, thieves, thugs, barons, kings, corrupt clerks and secretaries.
The are a growing number of people out there who could solve the problems facing moast economies out there - in one morning ! That's how basic they are. But No! Giles, the fucking pig farmer, has to pretend while he's doing his obligatory five years in the City, that he's smart and stupid at the same time - which will not be the hardest thing he has to in his life- so that, come what may, pig-farming amongst the shires may live for another generation to enjoy. You're really a fucking waste of an education.
No problemo -- just set the tradebots to "buy" on the way out of the office. That will get us through the weekend. Time to consider front loading future POMO?
Strange how the ABC confidence figure isn't improving at all... but that is reported late and out of hours of course compared to the Michigan CONfidence phone calls
It's truly confusing out here in little town Iowa. 2 years ago CDS Global left town, minus 600 jobs. Now Directtv is supposed to move in and add 300 jobs. Plenty of homes for sale yet the stores are busy most times I go. My property inspection work is steady to increasing. I still think I'm getting poorer. Wife and I were talking that if the country doesn't blow up by Jan. 1 , we should believe in the recovery. " This is your brain, This is your brain on finances".
Iowa. Agriculture. High prices for growers of grains, corn and meats. Land of plenty. This doesn't seem that odd, though it's arguable how long those high prices will persist.
Fifty cent per gallon ethanol subsidies from the feds don't hurt either. Well, unless you live in Mexico or some other place where the prices have driven poor people to food riots.
Guess your not from Newton.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OY46FOxRGeU
This is pretty funny stuff. Things are getting better here in the good ol' US of A and it is starting to get all over the ZH perma-bears.
I keep waiting for the ever predicted "bad ending" but in the meantime I am fighting for parking spaces in shopping malls, handing out bribe money to get a decent reservation for dinner and looking for that elusive $10 loaf of bread (as forecast by ZH on 11/4).
I am for now grateful for the fact my Christmas shopping is done as I have no interest in fighting the maddening crowds that have already begun to assault the retail sector. This is going to be a mind blowing retail season ZH, so get your explanations ready as to how it happened; you know "if not for food stamps - etc. etc. etc.... ad nauseum.
One day the perma-bear will be correct. But that day is at least a decade away and it will be a very short (no pun intended) day indeed.
"Enjoy this "Black Friday" while you still can. Perhaps the memories of these good times will keep us warm during the truly dark days that are ahead." Time for a reality check...
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/black-friday-a-festival-of-greed-in-the-midst-of-a-sea-of-pain-and-suffering
Laughable....absolutely laughable....all that Mexicali weed must be in a pipeline direct to Michigan.........
Hard to believe the market would rally today. This is too easy guys. Once Ireland announced their takeover of the bank, Korea turned into another episode of saber rattling, you knew this thing would fly today.
Not hard to believe at all...days before big holidays are almost always positive short of a cataclysmic event.
Interesting since the overwhelming majority of posts here yesterday were nothing but doom. Even our authors wrote it was the best bad news day of the year.
As I argued, if you could only pull the market down 1.3% on an awful news day, there's not a lot of pressure to the downside out there. All dips are being bought. Getting to be a rather easy trading market now.
I would advise separating out discussions of the market versus trading the market. Despite being bearish based on fundamentals and technicals I still trade the market long. Buying dips work until they do not so have a contingency plan in place.
So we are actually on the same page for the most part. I agree the market is not the economy. But I do see some glimmers of sustained, slow improvement in the broader economic picture. That in turn raises sentiment and equity prices.
Higher taxes, higher interest rates, austerity measures in the US, government layoffs - that will do wonders for disposable income
Down yesterday. Up today. Normal.
I have come to realize that Zerohedge equals ZERO MONEY. All the NOISE in this blog will make you ZERO dollars really.
Talk about the US Dollar crashing, where is it now?
Talk about AAPL and Tech bubble? How high are these stocks today?
Talk about the end for the banks? Like this country will run without them. Zerohedge is naive.
Talk about Disney and Net Apps crashing right after announcing? Look at them now.
Bottom line, thanks for the effort to point the economic issues we face. But these issues DO NOT translate into a wipe out of Western Societies economic system.
Western Corporate innovations are just too strong and the world development depends heavily on it. Who will replace them? BRIC companies....not in our living years.
Yes, the market will correct....doesn't it always? It's natural.
"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself"
What? I guess the 7 weeks you have been a member must have cost you alot of money in bad investments...LOL move on shill!
My advice is to buy what Cramer and Goldman Sachs tell you and report back to us in a few months.
On cnbs theyre actually saying retail will be great as people don't pay their mortgage and that housing money will pour into retail like amazon and apple.
I need some pepto...
So you know how long I have been a member...you must be a ZH insider. Keep up the good work. After all, the more volume you add to your site, the more servers and load balancers and routers and switches you will need to buy; making me more money.
Have you been a 10 year+ bagholder?
Or are you more of a swing trading massochist?
Wait - I know. You're a day trader that makes $5,000 per day, consistently.
Survivorship bias skew your bank account how much?
Options expiry for silver
Talking about Michigan confidence....
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xfrjq7_conyers-video-m4v_news
John Conyers reads Playboy on plane to DC
John Conyers, Jr. (born May 16, 1929) is the U.S. Representative for Michigan's 14th congressional district, serving since 1965 .
Not that there's anything wrong with it, but some mild embarrassment for Michigan Rep. John Conyers, who was secretly caught reading Playboy on a plane. (Video via Detroit News and Sal Armuk)