Mike Krieger Explains Why A Calm Sea Does Not Make a Skilled Sailor

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Mike Krieger of Kam LP

A Calm Sea Does Not Make a Skilled Sailor

The following correspondence was the reply to our objections in the establishment of the G5 in 1985 to “manage” the global economy through intervention on a coordinated basis.  Given the fact that the floating exchange rate system affords governments the freedom to now spend as they like pursuing their domestic policy objectives separate and apart from the international fiscal responsibility behind the value of the currency in global capital flows, it is simply unlikely that the current system will be sustainable long-term.  Volatility will rise and will spread among the markets driven by swings in currency values.  Eventually, in the course of events that will now follow, the global economy will become increasingly more unstable and reflect much higher degrees of volatility as historically has always taken place under floating exchange rate systems.  In the end game, the global economy will be attracted to the next major sovereign debt crisis that should appear going into 26 years from the 1985 birth of the G5 (2011) and perhaps culminate in a new global monetary system by 2016.
- Written by Martin A. Armstrong’s Princeton Economics International in 1986 (welcome to freedom Marty!)

Gold Breakout In Progress

Ok, let’s get right into it.  Gold first nudged above $1,400/oz in November of 2010 and has really for all intents and purposes been consolidating in a tight range between $1,350-$1,400 ever since.  Today’s breakout to new highs represents the fifth attempt to really get going beyond the high end of the range and this move appears to be the real deal.  Everyone likes to talk about the “dollar” and what it is doing but these folks are almost always referring to the DXY Index, which is about as useful an indicator as a Keynesian economist.  The reason of course is that the DXY is weighted 57% to the dollar/euro cross and in case your head has been in the sand for the last three years the European Union is a joke.  The citizens in the various countries whether on the periphery or Germany itself will increasingly want nothing to do with it and this sentiment will only increase as Brussels acts more and more like a despotic Medieval King when dealing with the broke nations.  But clearly the desires of the citizenry no longer matter as we have a self appointed global elite that think they know best and are busy cutting undemocratic deals and treaties behind closed doors (here is control freak Soros’ latest scheme http://www.mrc.org/bmi/commentary/2011/Unreported_Soros_Event_Aims_to_Remake_Entire_Global_Economy.html).  The more they do this the more the people will ultimately push back.  As I wrote last year, the irony of it all is the harder the incompetent “elite” push for their global government system the more likely we are to descend into even more fractured states and communities.  People don’t like to be told how to live generally, but will put up with it if the economic and social conditions are benign.  The moment that dynamic changes the people push back hard and revolt.  This is what is happening now and it will only escalate exponentially from here.     
Anyway, the point is that while most of the world is in a very dangerous position nowhere is the danger greater than in the West (including Japan) where the mountain of sovereign debt is at a tipping point collectively.  So to compare one dying currency to another (the dollar/euro) doesn’t tell me much about anything.  The cross that I find much more useful is the dollar versus a basket of Asian currencies and this can be followed on Bloomberg via the ADXY.  This is because the biggest macro trend in the world is the shift in purchasing power from the West to the East and this will only be sustainably achieved via a revaluation of Western currencies to Eastern currencies.  This has NOT yet happened.  Last week I noted to several people that we need to watch the ADXY since a breakout there would confirm any gold breakout.  Well, take a look at the ADXY chart below.  Breakout there and breakout in gold.  Game on.
ADXY One Year Chart

Speaking of gold if you read only one thing this weekend please read this http://www.usagold.com/hathawaypyramid.html.  It was written by John Hathaway in 1999.  He runs the Tocqueville gold fund.  It is an amazing piece of work and thoroughly explain the paper gold pyramid scheme.  One of my favorite quotes is:

Easy to manufacture paper claims overshadow impossible to manufacture underlying gold by several orders of magnitude. There is plentiful evidence as to the mismatch between paper and physical gold. A bullion fund manager who has made a career of and a business strategy based on the chain of custody of the physical metal told me that he recently attempted to buy physical from a large commercial bank. The bank officer tried to persuade him to buy the bank's gold certificates instead. It turned out the bank possessed only four bars of gold that were free and clear of various claims and therefore deliverable. The same bank had $452mm of gold certificates outstanding as of 12/31/98. Holders of the certificates do not own gold, even though that may be their impression. What they own is the banks promise to pay. Another bullion trader familiar with the notes said that there was no regulatory requirement for a specific gold backing.

In another instance, a mining CEO mentioned that a small quantity of bullion, a corporate asset, had been deposited with a fiduciary. When the company decided to switch banks, they called for their gold and were told they couldn't have it within the notice period specified by the agreement. It was only with great difficulty that delivery was made, highlighted by a last minute appearance of a Brink's truck at the depository institution. The delivery was made with borrowed gold.

This was 12 years ago!  Imagine what it would be like now if real money actually tried to take possession of their gold.  Guess what…you won’t.  Which brings me to the topic of silver.  As I hope you all know silver is back up to a new thirty year high today and all the buzz relates to the current Comex March delivery month where there are still 3.7 million ounces standing for delivery with only a week left.  This is going to be very interesting and everyone is wondering first of all how can it be so difficult to deliver such a tiny amount?  Everyone is also wondering how the criminal bankers are going to weasel their way out of this one.  A seeking alpha article provides a window into what these jokers may be resorting to (with the full compliance of our corrupt Banana Republic government and “regulators” of course).  Article is here http://seekingalpha.com/article/259549-will-jpmorgan-now-make-and-take-delivery-of-its-own-silver-shorts.  Anyone foolish enough to allow JP Morgan to hold their precious metals for them at this stage in the game will get what’s coming.

Welcome to Freedom Martin A. Armstrong

Many Americans are still so brainwashed they do not understand that there are political prisoners in America.  Martin A. Armstrong was one of these men.  As has been the sad case throughout human history, corrupt and incapable governments will always imprison their best and their brightest.  Martin A. Armstrong is in my opinion a genius of the highest order so of course he was thrown in the slammer without a trial.  I have been reading this man’s work for years now and I have also used his quotes several times at the tops of these emails, including today’s.  Today’s quote was written in 1986 and according to his model he predicted that we would likely be in the midst of a sovereign debt crisis in 2011 (we are) and that a new monetary system will be in place by 2016 (it has to be).  The link to this article as well all of his others can be found here http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm.  If you haven’t read anything by him start with the following http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Its-Just-Time-Martin-Armstrong.pdf.  Sit back, relax and let that red pill go down smoothly.

A Calm Sea Does Not Make a Skilled Sailor

In case you wondered where the title for this piece came from, it was actually the message that popped out my fortune cookie during a meal on Monday night.  It just summed up so many things for me.  It summarized why our culture is so damaged.  At the core of the malignancy killing the nation is the fact that we possess the world’s reserve currency that can be created at will out of thin air and forced upon goods producing nations (whether manufacturing or resource goods).  This means we do not need to produce to consume, which hollows out the entire core of the economy over time and has made us the generally lazy and decadent society we are today.  I mean take for example the C announcement recently of a reverse 1 for 10 stock split.  I haven’t heard such an embarrassing press release since reading about how U.S. taxpayers are going to make money from the bailouts.  So for the last year all I heard on propaganda channel CNBC was how once C’s shares got above $5 it would attract a whole new class of investors and the shares would soar.  Well the stock wasn’t able to hold above $5 so look what happened.  Magic, they are just going to make the stock trade at $45 with this scheme.  Bankers can’t lose, didn’t you get the memo? Oh and they are paying a whole penny a share in dividends.  You have got to be kidding me guys.  Pathetic.

I want to conclude today’s piece on a positive note.  The fact that Martin Armstrong was released is an extremely positive development.  The man that should be U.S. Treasury Secretary is now at least not rotting in a jail cell.  While a small step, it is a step.  Meanwhile, more and more people are waking up to the spell that has been cast upon them by the sorcerers of deceit at the Federal Reserve and other large institutions that will remain nameless but their lies will also be exposed in time.  Light is indeed overcoming the darkness and the infowar is slowly being won.  

Have a great weekend,

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Bleeping Fed's picture

So we should compare the dollar with the strong, unmanipulated yuan, yen, dong, or won?

ConfusedIdiot's picture

No BF. Compare USD to the top 7 US trading partner's Index.

Regards.(also helps to reweight EU based on pseudo mark value as per cent of US trading partner - ie US/GER is major trading partner after Can/China/Mex/Japan/Ger/.... ) CI 

Canada 45.03 45.03
China 39.43 39.43
Mexico 34.57 34.57
Japan 14.97 14.97
Germany 10.42 10.42
United Kingdom 7.73 7.73
Korea, South 7.40 7.40
Taiwan 5.51 5.51
Brazil 5.44 5.44
France 5.04 5.04
Thomas's picture

Did they spring Armstrong to free up a cell for Aleynikov?

IBelieveInMagic's picture

At the core of the malignancy killing the nation is the fact that we possess the world’s reserve currency that can be created at will out of thin air and forced upon goods producing nations (whether manufacturing or resource goods).  This means we do not need to produce to consume, which hollows out the entire core of the economy over time and has made us the generally lazy and decadent society we are today. 


Man, this is depressing -- Mike is destroying my delusions of what US is all about :(

dark pools of soros's picture

the Niger Dong is stronger than the Yankee Bernuck

scythian empire's picture

What makes a butt-pirate?

dark pools of soros's picture

sailing half mast too close to Key West?

malikai's picture

Everyone is also wondering how the criminal bankers are going to weasel their way out of this one.

Easy, they will declare fraud majeure!

Caviar Emptor's picture

Once politicians, bankers and citizens got the idea in their heads that "someone proved that deficits don't matter", it was all downhill from there. Just like giving a tween-aged girl a high limit credit card or a tween-aged guy a motorcycle, it was bound to end badly. 

And it's not over. Because we're also living in the shadow of 4 decades worth of cumulative money printing as well. Dollars never get destroyed. They exist in ocean sized pools known as petrodollars and eurodollars and there are Asia dollars and deep pockets here there and everywhere. 

So a tipping point has been reached since 2008: the desire to spend those dollars is beginning to exceed the desire to save them. For lots of reasons. But as the value of those dollars is perceived to be diminishing, the impulse to spend is growing fast. 

So now the US has gotten the entire world on a spiraling spending binge. And that is bound to end badly. 

B9K9's picture

Actually, the calculus is pretty straightforward:

(a) preserve the $USD reserve status via economic policies

(b) preserve the $USD reserve status via military policies

'A' would require discipline, but would have the beneficial effect of stabilizing global tensions and facilitating capital's search for positive returns via productive investment.

'B' (our current path) would require NO discipline, but would have the beneficial effect (from a military perspective) of DE-stabilizing global tensions and preventing capital's search for positive returns via productive investment.

B seems like a winner to me, because both the bankers & MIC benefit from continued debasement and conflict.

MrPalladium's picture

Wow! Best analysis I have seen in a long time!!

Oh regional Indian's picture

War! It's already happening. Why is that difficult to see that it is the get-out-of-jail-card-and-send-someone-else's-kid-to-their-death play?

It's been done over and over and over last century. It's already been done over and over this century.

It's happening right now.

Broken Window, Broken Arrow, it's all the same to mammon maddened maniacs.



mynhair's picture

Kinetically winning?

10kby2k's picture

Even if America could repatriate its manufacturing base.....the people here wouldn't want to do the work for $15/hour. Its now beneath them. Unemployment pays almost as well and they demand to be paid more than unemployment.  Plus, who would want to do such rigorous work for such a meager paycheck?  There is little hope for this country.

campag's picture

Gaddafi flees country..

TradingJoe's picture

So I should go ahead and short GLD now?!?! All GLD holders who would eventually want delivery and ...wont get it...:))) ?!?!

Misean's picture

Such a nattering nabob of negativism! Surely this nothing a little more printing can't fix...and if it can't then a whole lot MORE printing surely.

americanspirit's picture

Hoard silver where they can't find it. Then sit back and watch as things fall apart. Remember to duck and cover at the appropriate moment.

americanspirit's picture

Repeat after me - there is no strong China that is going to keep things from falling apart. repeat this until it sinks in.

Doubt it? This from Mish   http://www.sbs.com.au/dateline/story/watch/id/601007/n/China-s-Ghost-Cities

Clampit's picture

Martin Armstrong for POTUS? Seems more plausible than my first attempt of Robert Karhe, and I'm increasingly inclined to limit my search to those who have been imprisoned for economic "crimes."

PulauHantu29's picture

"The above chart shows the magnitude of the housing bubble.  Keep in mind the massive run from 1999 to 2006 largely occurred at a time when real household incomes were falling.  So you ask again, how was this possible?  Pure and simple it was built on debt...."

"This was completely a Wall Street push.  It wasn’t like some Republican or Democrat sat behind their crony desk and conjured up the ideas for collateralized debt obligations.  They got this idea from their overlords of banking lobbyists."


Spalding_Smailes's picture

Once QE ends & the middle east clears up it's game over for Turd. He also said he would no longer post on ZH. We will seeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee if Mr. Snake Oil lives up to his promise.


Turd " Snake Oil " Ferguson ( Jan. 20 2011 )

......... " So, here's my promise to you. Gold will trade at $1600 on or before 6/10/11. If I'm wrong, I'm shutting down this blog and going away, never to be heard from again as I will have proven myself to be of little value. If I'm right...well, let's just say it would be perfectly appropriate for you to hit the "Feed The Turd" button every day for the rest of your life. " ...............

Shameful's picture

So when QE ends where will the capital come from to buy US debt? I reckon it at 2.5% world GDP just in US debt not including other sovereigns, most all who are swimming deep in the debt pool. Is there that much savings and that much appetite in the world for Treasuries at these yields? If yields move up that will make the carry cost greater and even greater deficits, further increasing yields...

If dollars aren't flying from the printing press, where will they come from in a world of slowing economies and expanding deficits?

malikai's picture

If dollars aren't flying from the printing press, where will they come from in a world of slowing economies and expanding deficits?

Lots of fluffy unicorns will fly in on rainbows with pots of gold and silver.

Misean's picture

Ugh! Unicorns have horns on their heads. Pegasi fly! People gotta stop mixing their metaphorical mythologies. And let's not forget that leprechauns are necessary for rainbows and gold, and leprechauns are a bit tapped out right now.

malikai's picture

Please accept my humble apologies for disturbing your metaphorical mythological knowledge. Now, as a good troll, I will retire to underneath my bridge.

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Yes, exactly. Everyone knows that Unicorns don't fly, they dance under rainbows and crap skittles.

Temporalist's picture

Unicorns don't need to fly they magically appear whenever The Bernank farts.

Calmyourself's picture

When QE ends and the ME calms ha, your a tool..  The ME is never going to calm down, this is it for the ME. new normal pal, it is going to stay this way for a long, long time.  This is the distraction they need and the price impetus to print even more and I think you know who "they" is.  Turd may be off o n the numbers a little but his macro call will eat your lunch

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Manufacturing is booming in Chicago. I know the owners of two of the largest manufacturing plants and one has a 8-10 week lead time the other is no longer quoting jobs. Chicago PMI is at a 22 year high, banking on QE 3 is a fool's errand ... They are working on everything, oil and gas projects, printing equipment, mining, blowers, everything is picking up and he said the quotes really started pouring in 2-3 weeks ago ....


"We have quite a tight range in Treasuries right now, even though there's a lot of risk events being thrown at the market," said John Stopford, head of fixed income at Investec Asset Management Ltd. in London, which manages about $80 billion. "There's a tug-of-war going on between a flight to quality and the market's expectation that yields will have to rise at some point as inflation and economic growth pick up.


Shameful's picture

So your argument is the US will have a massive economic boom, and in manufacturing. So China, the current main manufacturer with opaque polices and cheap labor will lose to the US with opaque policies and expensive labor (ignoring environmental regulations)...man I hope your right, but I'm not seeing it.

So I take it then you agree with the White House's budget projections of revenue growth in the US? And then I have to assume that flush Americans will keep part of it back to self fund the deficits?

Spalding_Smailes's picture

We are going to find out real soon who's right. I kept hearing QE 3,4 not 5 not 6 not 7 just like Lebron James that goof .... And " they can't raise rates " never,never,never because the banks would get monkey hammered.... Well get ready.

My buddy is even getting quotes from overseas now with the dollar plunge. The USA still has many high end manufactures ( CNC- Robotics ) and the only other countries that can match this capability Japan and Germany, well look at those exchange rates and Japan will be in trouble for months going forward.

Shameful's picture

Well US makes all sorts of great toys, biggest arms maker in the world. But being our own best customer does not help the bottom line. But won't an economic recover put pressure on oil prices? Won't that squeeze people unless the recovery really is mighty enough to pick up the unemployment and stagnate wages with a quickness? Especially if we are relying on a weak dollar, weak dollars buy less oil.

We'll see, calling for economic boom before QE2 ends is a bold prediction. Know my fellow starving students would love to see it. And I would much rather you be right, then me.

To exchange action, have seen the BOJ is willing to intervene. Don't know to what extent. And the EU is still going through their meltdown, Portugal bellying up to the bailout bar.

And if the Fed acts against the TBTF interest they would be overturning decades of prior action. Could it happen, sure. But then I could beat Lebron one on one...if he was drugged and tied up...

jesse livermoore's picture

hey spalding smalies  .. I was just wondering, are clothes more expensive inside the matrix ??

Abitdodgie's picture

I think he is going to be spot on with that one .

Vagabond's picture

And if you are wrong and it turns out you have been spouting misinformation for months, are you going to likewise go away?

Shameful's picture

Personally I can't wait to see what spin will be put on failure to deliver of metals. I hope they put some good writers on it, I'd like ot at least get a laugh out of it. Maybe just go absurdest "We would deliver...but we were storing out silver on site at Fukishima...who knew? So we will deliver when the radiation dies down enough for us to go get it. 6 billion years ok?"

Misean's picture

There won't be any story to write. Anyone not taking $50 in cotton/linen to close out their contracts will call a nice cell in southern Cuba home for a while.

Miss Expectations's picture

Fortune cookie message:

That wasn't chicken.

Racer's picture

"Fed's Bernanke to hold press briefings four times a year, to present economic forecasts after FOMC meetings"


The ChairSatan make economic forecasts?  ROFLMAO

More like economic daydreams .. or rather.. nightmares for the poor people


LawsofPhysics's picture

All economic models remain disconnected from the physical laws of nature (which really decide whether you live or die).  Modern economics in particular is even worse, because it grew out of a time of cheap labor and cheap energy.  Only cheap labor and cheap energy will sustain our current economic model.  Not going to happen.  Thermodynamics are a bitch, hedge accordingly.

Gully Foyle's picture

Is this prophecy?


No Escape, released in some territories as Escape from Absolom is a 1994 action/science fiction film shot in Queensland starring Ray Liotta as John Robbins. As a former American Marine serving life imprisonment on an island inhabited by savage and cannibalistic prisoners for killing his commanding officer, the commandant of a Benghazi military base


In the 21st century (film taking place in 2022), the penal system is now run by corporations, with prisoners seen as corporate assets.

Ex-soldier John Robbins is imprisoned for life for the murder of his superior officer, who had deliberately ordered Robbins to lead a helicopter assault on a civilian village during a war which was going very badly for the USA, which was supposedly a source of "bio-weapons fire". In the assault, (which was later covered up and for which Robbins was awarded a medal) 342 women and children were "vaporized". This causes Robbins to have flashbacks of them screaming and dying over a backdrop of flames.

DavidC's picture

Likewise, I've looked forward to Martin Armstrong's pieces and have read them avidly.

I tried to send a mail to him on learning of his release last week but couldn't find any contact e-mail address, so I'd like to add my regards and best wishes to him.


Liquid Courage's picture

Me too, Mr. C, tho' many of the (presumably) younger posters here seem to be unaware of the sad & sordid tale of Marty Armstrong's fall from grace.

I hope he's "allowed" (or even, after all he's been through, wants) to establish some sort of web presence.

Welcome back to "freedom" (such as it is), Martin!

mule65's picture

Blah blah blah.  1350 before tax day.

Abitdodgie's picture

what will be 1350 silver or the S&P ?